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Shohei Ohtani

MLBTR Poll: Ohtani’s 2020 As A Pitcher

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It was revealed earlier this week that the Angels will go without the pitching of two-way star Shohei Ohtani until at least the middle of May. It’s not wholly unsurprising that Ohtani won’t be ready at the start of 2020. After all, he’s on the mend from a rather serious surgical procedure – the dreaded Tommy John – that he underwent in October 2018. Considering his value to the franchise, there’s no need for the Angels to rush Ohtani back if they’re not fully confident in his health.

All that said, it’s disappointing that Ohtani has pitched so few innings since the Angels brought him over from Japan prior to 2018. The latest news is especially damaging when considering that the team hasn’t added a front-line starter since last season, even though expectations were that it would pick up at least one over the winter. The Angels, stuck in a five-year playoff drought, did get Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran, but they’re more back-end innings-eaters than standouts. On the other hand, Ohtani has the ability to produce No. 1- or 2-type numbers for the club this year, but it’s obvious it’ll be over an abbreviated amount of innings.

The lack of frames Ohtani has racked up since he joined the Angels is no doubt a letdown – not that it’s his fault. He came to the majors as one of the most ballyhooed international free agents ever – someone often called the Japanese Babe Ruth – and has not faltered when healthy. Ohtani tossed 51 2/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP ball with 10.97 K/9 and 3.83 BB/9 as a major league rookie, averaging just under 97 mph on his fastball along the way. It was a dazzling display overall, and Ohtani truly showed what he’s capable of when he threw seven scoreless, one-hit innings of 12-strikeout ball against the Athletics in his second career start.

Ohtani remained really good through his initial season, though injuries were an issue, thus limiting him to two major league pitching appearances from the start of June through the end of the year. We haven’t been treated to Ohtani the pitcher since Sept. 2, 2018, and we’ll have to wait at least a few more months to get another look at that aspect of his game.

Fortunately for the Angels and baseball in general, Ohtani’s no one-trick pony. He’s also quite an offensive player, having slashed .286/.351/.532 (136 wRC+) with 40 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 792 plate appearances since he emigrated from his homeland.

At the very least, the 25-year-old Ohtani is in line to help the Angels as a designated hitter throughout the entirety of the upcoming campaign. But how much of an impact do you think he’ll make as a hurler when he officially returns from surgery? Vote in the polls below…

(Innings poll link for app users)

How many innings will Ohtani throw?
91-100 26.51% (1,218 votes)
71-90 26.07% (1,198 votes)
More than 100 24.87% (1,143 votes)
51-70 12.75% (586 votes)
50 or fewer 9.79% (450 votes)
Total Votes: 4,595

(ERA poll link for app users)

Predict Ohtani's ERA
3.31-3.50 29.01% (1,070 votes)
3.51-4.00 25.73% (949 votes)
3.00-3.30 25.67% (947 votes)
Below 3.00 9.92% (366 votes)
Above 4.00 9.68% (357 votes)
Total Votes: 3,689

Shohei Ohtani Expected To Return To Mound In Mid-May

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The Angels hope to turn Shohei Ohtani back into a two-way performer rather early in the 2020 season — just not quite as soon as might have been hoped. He’s presently on track to step back into the rotation in mid-May, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (Twitter link).

It’s generally promising to hear that Ohtani has a course charted for polishing off his Tommy John surgery rehab. But it’s not an especially speedy track. Ohtani received his new ulnar collateral ligament on October 1st of 2018 — a procedure that was delayed to allow him to continue serving as a DH late in that immensely impressive rookie campaign.

It was all but inevitable that Ohtani wouldn’t be able to pitch in 2019. There was never any effort to rush him back — for obvious reasons, given his immense long-term value. But it always seemed reasonable to presume that the uber-talented 25-year-old would be ready to roll at the start of the 2020 campaign, at which time he’ll be more than 18 months removed from his surgery.

Ohtani will still be able to serve as a DH from the jump. But missing another six weeks of his mound work — if indeed he’s able to throw in the majors at the projected point — dents the Halos’ hopes to turn in an impressive start-to-finish season that breaks a postseason drought. Toppling the Astros obviously won’t be easy.

This news adds to the impetus to get another arm in the stable. We discussed that matter earlier today in the context of the team’s collapsed bid to acquire Ross Stripling.

New Rule Allows Angels To Keep Ohtani On Roster As Hitter While On Rehab Assignment

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Angels’ GM Billy Eppler has been working with the Commissioner’s office on finding a solution to handling injured list stints for Shohei Ohtani, whom Eppler catalogues nicely as a player with a “dual distinction.”

With Ohtani in mind, the Commissioner’s office has passed a new rule that would allow Ohtani to pitch on a rehab assignment and return to the club as soon as the next day to perform as a hitter, said Eppler on the MLB Network Radio’s Power Alley (audio link). Essentially, the Angels can now treat Ohtani separately as a pitcher and hitter, sending him on a rehab assignment while keeping him on the roster.

Of course, that’s the hitch in the plan as well, that Ohtani would remain on the ML roster while pitching elsewhere, leaving the Angels roster down a man for a day. Eppler also reminds us that when he was healthy as a two-way star, the Angels preferred to give Ohtani a full day of rest the day before and after pitching assignments that took him past 65 pitches or so.

Still, the Angels now have the option to send Ohtani to the Pacific Coast League or the California league nearby without totally removing him from the roster. Whether that amount of travel behooves team or player in this case will be up to the Angels to decide.

Quick Hits: Angels, Ohtani, Rojas, Revenue, Lefties

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A few brief words of update on the Angels. Billy Eppler said during a press conference call that the team is considering various options for Shohei Ohtani this season, including “delaying him a little bit”, relays Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register (link). We’ve already heard that the club plans to keep him on an NPB-esque pitching schedule this season as he continues to work back from Tommy John surgery, but it’s uncertain if “delay” in this case means he’ll be held out of action late into Spring Training, or further.

Meanwhile, Maria Torres of the LA Times reports, from that same call, that Eppler acknowledged that the team “can add” to its already “strong” group of pitchers (link). That’s not a definitive statement, and the club’s opportunities to add might be dwindling now that one more arm is off the open market as of Saturday evening. Torres also reports that 26-year-old prospect Jose Rojas will receive an invite to big league camp this spring after a Triple-A season in which he hit .293/.362/.577 with 31 home runs.

More from around the game…

  • Declining attendance be damned—MLB’s revenue streams are flowing fine. According to a Saturday piece from Forbes, gross revenues for the league were a record $10.7 billion for 2019, up from $10.3 billion last year, according to industry sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity. And the upward slant should continue in future years; as noted by Forbes, the league’s deal with Fox television kicks in during the 2022 season and that deal alone has a reported value of $5.1 billion. For those wondering, MLB player payroll and benefits came in at $4.7 billion last year—leaving plenty of pie to go around for administrators, front-office types and ownership figures. The league has seen adjusted revenue growth of 386% since 1992.
  • ESPN’s Sam Miller took a closer look at the forthcoming thee-batter rule, including its real-life implications for several veteran LOOGYs. Miller coins the term “Ollies” (in honor of Indians journeyman Oliver Perez) to represent any appearance that is set to be outlawed under the new rules–which require that pitchers face three batters or get the final out of an inning before being replaced. Perez led the league with 22 such “Ollies” in 2019, while Andrew Chafin, Alex Claudio and Adam Kolarek all logged 15 or more such appearances. Of course, the forthcoming change didn’t stop the Brewers from re-signing Claudio earlier this offseason, so we can all rest assured that left-handed specialists aren’t going anywhere for the time being.

Angels Notes: Payroll, Ryu, Keuchel, Ohtani

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Let’s check in on the Halos, who made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason last week with the signing of superstar third baseman Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract…

  • The Angels made their send notable rotation pickup of the offseason Thursday, agreeing to sign right-hander Julio Teheran to a one-year, $9MM guarantee. Teheran and the previously acquired Dylan Bundy should help improve the Angels’ starting staff in 2020, but the team still hasn’t added a much-needed front-line hurler this offseason. But now that Teheran, Bundy and Rendon are in the fold, does the club have the financial flexibility to reel in yet another rotation upgrade? Perhaps. As Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group observes, the Angels currently have an actual payroll around $170MM and a luxury-tax outlay in the $181MM range – $27MM below the threshold. The former figure would be a franchise-record amount for the Angels, though owner Arte Moreno has indicated the team’s payroll would rise in 2020. It’s just unclear what his limit is.
  • Signing either lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu or fellow southpaw Dallas Keuchel would put yet another significant dent in the Angels’ payroll. No matter, the team appears to be in on both hurlers. The Angels and agent Scott Boras (who also represents Rendon) have had “multiple conversations” about Ryu and Keuchel, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times writes. However, Torres notes that a deal with the Angels isn’t imminent for either pitcher. Ryu (three years, $54MM) and Keuchel (three/39) are MLBTR’s highest-rated remaining pitchers in terms of potential earning power.
  • Regardless of how many moves the Angels make this winter, there may not be a more important development in 2020 than getting two-way star Shohei Ohtani back to full health. The right-hander/designated hitter was unable to pitch at all last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2018. Fortunately, though, the 25-year-old Ohtani has fully recovered from that serious procedure, Fletcher relays (Twitter links). Looking ahead to 2020, Ohtani only figures to pitch once a week, which aligns with the schedule he grew accustomed to in Japan before immigrating to the United States.

Latest On Shohei Ohtani

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Although they’re on the heels of yet another disappointing campaign, the Angels may be in position to make a significant splash on the pitching market this offseason. Whether or not that happens, though, it’s imperative for the club’s beleaguered starting staff to get a healthy Shohei Ohtani back in 2020. Ohtani, who didn’t pitch this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October, is progressing in his recovery from TJS and the left knee procedure he underwent last month, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. The 25-year-old is currently throwing from 100 feet and on schedule to retake the mound toward the end of November, according to Fletcher.

The emergence of Ohtani in 2018, his first stateside season after coming over as a much-ballyhooed Japanese free agent, was one of the most encouraging developments in recent memory for the Angels. Not only did Ohtani star with the bat that year, but he further proved he was worth the free-agent fuss by posting front-end production when he was healthy enough to take the ball. He threw just 51 2/3 innings during a 10-start, injury-limited rookie campaign, but the right-handed hurler made those appearances count with an impressive 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP, 10.97 K/9 and 3.83 BB/9.

Now, Ohtani’s fresh off another strong (albeit injury-shortened) season as a hitter. The hope is the lefty-swinging DH will continue to provide a solution at that position while enjoying a much healthier year as a pitcher in 2020. If Ohtani’s able to deliver a much larger chunk of innings next year, and if the Angels make some serious noise on the open market (Gerrit Cole? Stephen Strasburg?), it could go a long way toward a much-needed return to contention. The Halos are heading into a crucial offseason in which upgrading their pitching will be a must, regardless of whether general manager Billy Eppler, new skipper Joe Maddon & Co. are counting on substantial contributions from Ohtani.

Shohei Ohtani To Undergo Season-Ending Knee Surgery

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5:23PM: Ohtani’s recovery from his knee surgery shouldn’t impact his Tommy John rehab or his readiness for Spring Training or the start of the 2020 season, Eppler told Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters.

3:52PM: Angels DH Shohei Ohtani will undergo surgery on his left knee tomorrow, as per a statement from team GM Billy Eppler (Twitter link).  The procedure will focus on Ohtani’s bipartite patella, and it will keep Ohtani on the mend for roughly eight to twelve weeks.

On paper, this should leave Ohtani with plenty of time to be healthy and ready for Spring Training, though one potential wrinkle could be how this latest injury impacts Ohtani’s ongoing recovery from Tommy John surgery.  Ohtani underwent the elbow procedure last October and, by all accounts, has been progressing nicely, though this knee issue is certainly an unwelcome complication to the already unique situation facing Ohtani as a two-way player.

The TJ recovery kept Ohtani from making his 2019 debut until May 7, and he was limited strictly to designated hitter duty in his second big league season.  While his numbers took a step back from his 2018 totals, Ohtani went from being elite in his rookie to “merely” very good in 2019, cracking 18 homers and slashing .286/.343/.505 over 425 plate appearances.  It works out to a solidly above-average 122 OPS+ and wRC+, with a .350 xwOBA that only slightly lags behind his .357 wOBA.

The dropoff in production could mark something of a sophomore slump as pitchers get more used to Ohtani, though it could also represent his extra challenges of both coming back from Tommy John surgery as a position player while still continuing to rehab his throwing arm for his expected return to the mound in 2020.  Needless to say, the Angels will be as cautious as possible in monitoring the phenom’s health throughout the offseason and Spring Training, given Ohtani’s dual importance to both the team’s lineup and rotation.

Pitcher Notes: Ohtani, Urena, Cole

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Shohei Ohtani threw what Los Angeles Times reporter Maria Torres described as a “high-intensity bullpen session” on Saturday, and one spectator, Angels manager Brad Ausmus, walked away impressed. “He looked easy and free,” Ausmus said. “He threw about 40 pitches, I think. He was good. No complaints, so that’s good.” Ohtani relayed through an interpreter that he was throwing up to 82 mph during the pre-game workout, which, in his estimation, places him at about the “80%” point in his recovery process from Tommy John surgery. Of course, the Japanese import is known for ratcheting fastballs well in excess of 80 mph, so the Los Angeles org will likely have to wait until 2020 to see their prized two-way talent back on a big league mound.

More pitcher-focused frottages from around the web…

  • There are few sports-related injuries that are conceivably more painful than a herniated disc, but, after two months spent recovering from such an injury, Marlins starter Jose Urena is soldiering onward in his recovery, according to a report from Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. Urena, a veteran of five big league seasons, threw a bullpen session yesterday that manager Don Mattingly described as “really good”. According to the skipper, the team expects their homegrown hurler to return to the team in September, possibly in a bullpen capacity.
  • According to a tweet from Mandy Bell of MLB.com, the Indians have placed pitcher AJ Cole on the 10-day injured list, with a recall of pitcher Hunter Wood as a consequent move (link). Cole, a 27-year-old righthander, has been generally effective out of the Cleveland pen this year. His 10.38 K/9 rate over 26 innings has helped catalyze a solid 3.81 ERA rate, although his strikeout-geared repertoire could go a long way toward explaining the shoulder impingement that has now landed him in injury trouble. On the year, Cole has thrown a slider on 45.9% of his offerings, far, far above the usual 15% usage rate generally seen among pitchers utilizing that breaking ball in their repertoire.

162 Games Of Shohei Ohtani

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The Angels had far more important things on their mind Tuesday, a night in which they mourned the loss of friend and teammate Tyler Skaggs, but their game against the Rangers marked Shohei Ohtani’s 162nd as a part of their offense. Injuries have prevented the two-way phenom from making a greater impact since he emigrated from Japan entering the 2018 season, but in the full season he has played, Ohtani has more than matched the overwhelming hype that accompanied his arrival.

Although there wasn’t much question Ohtani would turn into a front-line starter when he left his homeland for the majors, there was plenty of doubt regarding how well he’d fare as a hitter. It turns out Ohtani has made more of a mark on the offensive end to this point, though the fact that he underwent Tommy John surgery last October is partially the reason for that. The righty-throwing Ohtani accumulated only 51 2/3 and 10 starts in 2018, when he logged a terrific 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP with 10.97 K/9 against 3.83 BB/9.

Ohtani’s pitching numbers will stay in place until he returns to the mound from his TJ procedure in 2020. That same surgery stopped Ohtani from making his 2019 debut as a hitter until May 7, but the DH has more than made up for lost time in the nearly two months since then.

The lefty-swinging Ohtani burst on the scene last year with a .285/.361/.564 line (152 wRC+) and 22 home runs in 367 plate appearances. Thanks to that and his output on the mound, Ohtani rightly took home American League Rookie of the Year honors. While Ohtani hasn’t been quite as strong this year on a rate basis, he has still been a premier hitter, evidenced by his 142 wRC+.

Across 195 trips to the plate, Ohtani has slashed .303/.359/.554 with 12 homers. Now, 162 games and 562 PA into his career as a major league batter, Ohtani owns a .291/.360/.561 slash – good for an exemplary 148 wRC+ – with 34 homers. His .269 isolated power ranks 10th in the majors since 2018, wedging him between the powerful duo of Khris Davis and Luke Voit. The speedy Ohtani has added 14 steals on 19 tries for good measure, giving him a 3.9 fWAR over a full season as a major league offensive player.

Ohtani was marvelous last year and has been again this season, though there are some differences in the way he has compiled his production. Ohtani’s pulling pitches less, hitting far more grounders and far fewer fly balls, all of which has led to a power decrease. He’s still formidable in that department, though. An uptick in line drives has helped Ohtani rank near the absolute top of the majors in expected slugging percentage (86th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (89th percentile), hard-hit percentage (94th percentile), expected batting average (95th percentile) and average exit velocity (99th percentile), according to Statcast. The difference between his .378 xwOBA and .382 wOBA, both of which rank in the top 40 among hitters with at least 150 PA, is negligible.

It’s unwise to draw conclusions from such a small sample, yet it’s worth noting the lefty-swinging Ohtani has been much better against same-handed pitchers than he was a year ago. As FanGraphs’ heat maps indicate (2018, 2019), Ohtani showed no power versus lefties when they threw pitches belt high or lower on the outer half last season. That hasn’t been the case at all this year, on the other hand. At the same time, he has taken tremendous steps forward against breaking pitches in general – after managing a .292/.300 wOBA/xwOBA versus such offerings in 2018, he’s up to .414/.363 a couple months into the current season. Ohtani has shown further growth as a hitter by chasing less outside the zone, swinging and missing at fewer pitches and making much more contact than he did during his rookie campaign.

There is room for improvement when it comes to plate discipline for Ohtani, whose K/BB ratio has hung around the league average in each of his two seasons. And he could have a difficult time continuing to uphold a .350 batting average, which he recorded last year and has again this season. However, as a fast runner who hits the ball hard and amasses a lot of grounders and liners, his skill set is conducive to a high BABIP.

Several months before Ohtani’s much-ballyhooed free-agent derby began, MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom surveyed scouts on what type of major league hitter he’d become. They didn’t forecast an elite-caliber offensive player, but that’s what Ohtani has been through his first full season at the plate. The fact that the two-way force hasn’t really begun to realize his potential as a pitcher is all the more thrilling for the Angels and all the more concerning for the rest of the league.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Andrelton Simmons Diagnosed With Grade 3 Ankle Sprain

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TODAY: Simmons updated Hoornstra (Twitter links) and other reporters on his status today, including the good news that surgery won’t be required.  Once the swelling around the ankle goes down in another week or two, Simmons and the team will have a better sense of how long it will be before the shortstop is able to return to action.

TUESDAY, 6:57pm: Simmons, moving around the clubhouse on crutches, didn’t have a timeline for his return when asked by reporters, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger tweets that the typical recovery timeline would range from eight to 12 weeks, but the Angels won’t know for certain until tomorrow.

4:42pm: The Angels announced that shortstop Andrelton Simmons has been diagnosed with a Grade 3 ankle sprain and been placed on the 10-day injured list. He’ll see a specialist tomorrow, after which the team will provide more details on his expected timeline. However, a Grade 3 sprain is severe (indicating a ligament tear), so Simmons will quite likely be on the shelf for an extended period of time. Luis Rengifo is up from Triple-A Salt Lake to take his spot on the active roster.

It’s a huge blow for the Angels, who saw both Simmons and Shohei Ohtani exit last night’s game due to injury. Thankfully, there’s better news on Ohtani, who is feeling better today after being hit by a pitch last night. He’s in the lineup for the Angels tonight.

The 29-year-old Simmons, in addition to long being known as perhaps baseball’s premier defensive player, has progressed offensively in recent seasons as well. He’d been out to a .298/.323/.415 start with three home runs, 13 doubles and five steals through his first 195 plate appearances on the year. That’s a tough all-around asset for any team to lose, and Simmons’ absence will be felt all the more by an Angels club that is also still without left fielder Justin Upton in the middle of its lineup.

The Angels entered the season with aspirations of returning to the postseason for the first time since a 2014 trip to the American League Division Series (where they lost to the Royals). But between injuries to key players such as Upton and Andrew Heaney and poor performances from offseason rotation additions like Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill and Chris Stratton (now with the Pirates), the Angels find themselves three games under .500 (22-25) and already nine and a half games back of the Astros in the American League West. The team’s three-and-a-half game deficit in the American League Wild Card race is far more manageable, but the loss of Simmons will obviously further lessen their chances.

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