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The Twins Are One Of The Keys To The Trade Deadline

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The Twins have looked like sellers for much of the season, but as we’ve seen in recent years, most clubs prefer to wait until closer to the deadline to chart a course. As noted here recently, Minnesota faces almost exclusively AL Central clubs leading up to the July 30 trade deadline. If there was a 2019 Nationals-esque surge in this group, now would be the time to set it in motion.

The Twins started off taking two of three against an Indians club whose rotation is in tatters, but they’ve dropped their first two against the White Sox to fall 13.5 games out of first place in the division. For a team that needs to be nearly flawless over this pivotal stretch of divisional opponents — particularly versus Cleveland and Chicago — dropping three of the first five games isn’t a great start.

Given that this was a team most expected to contend for the Central, at the very least, it’s not at all surprising that there are several players who’d interest contenders. In fact, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in yesterday’s 20 Questions column that the Twins are “the team almost every contender is waiting on.” Minnesota still plays the White Sox eight times, the Tigers a whopping 11 times and the Royals three times before the trade deadline, so maybe they can pull off the macro version of last night’s staggering Angels comeback, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that this goes the direction most onlookers have expected for awhile now.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the Twins could do as the deadline draws nearer…

The Rentals

Michael Pineda, RHP ($10MM salary): Pineda is currently on the shelf with inflammation in his right elbow. He’s been out since June 14, but he’s slated for a rehab start in Triple-A today. Assuming there are no setbacks, Pineda would be one of the most attractive options on the rental market. He’s an established mid-rotation arm who has performed well with the Twins when he’s been able to take the mound (3.86 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 228 2/3 innings over 42 starts). Pineda did get hit with a PED suspension in 2019, although it was one of the rare instances where the league seems to have believed some of his plea of innocence, as MLB reduced his ban from 80 to 60 games. Many undoubtedly recall Pineda’s pine tar-covered hat in his Yankees days and will wonder about him in connection to the current crackdown on foreign substances. On that note, it’s worth pointing out that his spin rates were below-average in the first place and had actually decreased since signing with the Twins. We can’t know anything for sure, of course, but on paper he doesn’t look like your typical “Spider Tack” case.

Nelson Cruz, DH ($13MM): Happy 41st birthday, Nelson! The Boomstick is still swinging it as well as ever, slashing .307/.378/.585 with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz has been 57 percent better than a league-average hitter, per wRC+, and he’s cut his strikeout rate from 25.7 percent in his first two years with Minnesota down to 19.1 percent in 2021. His market will be limited to AL clubs unless some NL GM really, really wants an interleague/World Series DH and an occasional pinch-hitter. (We’ve all learned never to rule anything out with A.J. Preller by now.) AL contenders who could use an upgrade at DH include the A’s, Blue Jays, Rays and White Sox. Of course, Cruz’s salary may be steep for the A’s and Rays, and it’s hard to imagine the Twins shipping Cruz to their top division rival.

Andrelton Simmons, SS ($10MM): Simmons hasn’t been great with the bat in Minnesota — .245/.316/.328, 81 wRC+ — but the defense looks sharp. Simmons’ defensive metrics took a tumble in both 2019 and 2020 after he suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain and then re-sprained that ankle a second time. In 2021, he’s third among all players, regardless of position, with 12 Outs Above Average, per Statcast. He’s also notched a plus-2 mark in Defensive Runs Saved after registering minus-2 in that regard in just 265 innings last summer. The ankle appears healthy, and his range has seemingly improved as a result. If you want to upgrade your infield defense, they don’t come much better than this.

Alex Colome, RHP ($6.25MM): Colome was the Twins’ biggest offseason pickup in the bullpen, but the outstanding fortune he had on balls in play with the White Sox went up in smoke in 2021. Teams were surely wary of Colome’s .211 average on balls in play over the past two seasons with the ChiSox, which quite likely why the Twins were able to wait him out and get him for just a year and $6.25MM. Colome immediately stumbled out of the gates in Minnesota, blowing a game in his first appearance and floundering through a poor overall showing in April. He’s posted a respectable 3.60 ERA with a huge 58.1 percent grounder rate in 20 innings since, but he doesn’t look anywhere near as impressive as he did for the South Siders. Presumably, the asking price here wouldn’t be too high.

Hansel Robles, RHP ($2MM): Robles’ numbers would’ve looked better had this breakdown been written before his past two appearances, when he’s been tagged for four runs in two innings. But the right-hander is still sporting a 3.63 ERA and 48.3 percent ground-ball rate — albeit with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and a bloated 13.6 percent walk rate. He’s also experienced a rebound in fastball velocity after a dip in 2020, and he’s on a cheap enough contract that a contending club with luxury tax concerns might be particularly intrigued.

J.A. Happ, LHP ($8MM): Happ got out to a decent start in 2021, but he’s been shelled for most of his past nine appearances. His best performance in that stretch was his most recent, when he held Cleveland to a pair of runs on six hits and no walks with seven punchouts in six innings. If he can string together a few more nice outings like that, maybe some club would pick him up for a negligible return (i.e. partial salary relief) to try to stabilize the back of its rotation.

More Controllable Possibilities

Jose Berrios, RHP ($6.1MM, controllable through 2022): If the Twins were to make Berrios available, he might be the most coveted name on the market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported recently that the Cardinals have inquired and, unsurprisingly, found the asking price to be quite high. Still, Passan writes that a growing number of executives around the game expect the Twins to be willing to seriously consider a trade. That’s likely indicative of the level of interest in Berrios, as the Twins don’t seem likely to embark on a total rebuild even if they do sell. They’d likely seek young controllable, big-league ready talent in a trade of Berrios, who boasts a 3.41 ERA and matching 3.40 FIP with a career-best 26.5 percent strikeout rate and a 6.4 percent walk rate (the second-lowest of his career). His current salary is eminently affordable, and even with an aggressive raise in arbitration, he’d still be a bargain next year. Any contending club would love to have Berrios — it’s just a matter of how strong the offers are and whether the Twins are willing to compromise their 2022 roster by trading the best pitcher they’ve developed in the past decade.

Taylor Rogers, LHP ($6MM, controllable through 2022): Rogers has put a shaky (by his standards) 2020 season behind him. Through his first 32 innings, he’s sitting on a 2.53 ERA that’s actually higher than his FIP, xFIP and SIERA. Rogers’ 32.6 percent strikeout rate is back in line with his 2019 level, and this year’s 3.9 percent walk rate is the best of his career. He has the fifth-best chase rate of any qualified reliever in MLB. As with Berrios, Rogers could play a key role for the 2022 Twins, so the offer would need to  be strong. But relievers with this combination of swing-and-miss ability and command — particularly lefties — are tough to come by, so the demand will be sizable. This is also a Twins front office that generally hasn’t been keen on committing too much to any individual reliever, and Rogers’ final arbitration raise will push his salary into the $8-9MM range. A trade to a contender is very plausible. (As an aside, it’d be quite the fun story to see twin brothers co-closing games for a contending club. We’re all looking at you, Giants.)

Tyler Duffey, RHP ($2.2MM, controllable through 2022): Duffey hasn’t been the dominant setup man he was in 2019-20, but he’s controlled another season on a cheap salary and has still been effective in 2021. There’s no sugar-coating that his strikeout and walk rates from 2019-20 have dropped from 34.2 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, to 22 percent and 12.6 percent in 2021. He’s improved both a bit over his past 15 outings, though, and only allowed two runs in that time. Overall, he has a 3.52 ERA and 3.84 FIP in 30 2/3 innings. As with Robles, if you’re a contending team with luxury tax concerns, taking a chance on a cheap reliever with a bigger track record probably has some appeal.

Caleb Thielbar, LHP ($700K, controllable through 2024): A Minnesota native and feel-good comeback story from 2020, Thielbar can be controlled another three years beyond the current campaign. That might make dealing him counterintuitive should the Twins be looking for a quick turnaround after a theoretical summer sale, but Thielbar will turn 35 this offseason and relievers are volatile in the first place. The Twins brought him back from indie ball last year, so there’s a “playing with house money” element to marketing him. He’s pitched 50 1/3 innings of 2.86 ERA ball with a 30.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate since returning last summer. Fielding-independent metrics largely support the ERA. With multiple contenders sitting right on the luxury-tax precipice, Thielbar could be an under-the-radar but highly attractive chip for the Twins.

Longer Shots

Like Berrios, Rogers and Duffey, Byron Buxton is controlled only through the 2022 season. However, Buxton is on the injured list after an errant fastball fractured his left hand in a recent at-bat, and it’s nearly impossible to envision the Twins moving their most talented player at such a low point. The durability concerns with Buxton are understandable, and his repeated absences in 2021 have been a major factor in the Twins’ current predicament, but trading him doesn’t feel realistic.

It’s a similar story with righty Kenta Maeda, who has been hit hard this season and spent time on the injured list with an adductor strain. The Twins control him into 2023, and even if his struggles as a starter continue, his $3.25MM base salary is plenty reasonable if he’s in a bullpen or hybrid role. He doesn’t need to be the ace-caliber arm he was in 2020 to justify his contract, and the flexibility he provides the Twins moving forward carries more value than what they’d receive by selling low in a trade.

Right fielder Max Kepler and second baseman Jorge Polanco would no doubt attract interest thanks to their long-term deals, but Kepler is in the midst of his own down season and controlled affordably all the way through 2024. Polanco had a dismal three-week slump to open the year but has hit quite well (.275/.345/.483) since that time. He’s signed through 2025, so there’s little reason for the Twins to consider anything there.

Josh Donaldson is hitting .299/.382/.662 over the past month and has homered in three straight games, but he’s also 35 years old and only in the second season of a four-year, $92MM contract that affords him limited no-trade protection. It’s tough to see something coming together with all the money still owed to him.

The Twins might welcome a taker for strikeout-plagued slugger Miguel Sano, who is hitting .195/.280/.435 this season with a 37 percent punchout rate. But Sano is making $11MM this year, $9.25MM in 2022, and is also owed a $2.75MM buyout on a $14MM option for the 2023 season.

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With a deep reserve of enticing position prospects, headlined by current big leaguers Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, plus several key pieces under long-term control and plenty of payroll space this winter, the Twins shouldn’t be expected to completely tear the roster down. It’d make sense to target some controllable arms, however, as they’ve dealt with injuries to several of their top pitching prospects in 2021 (Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino among them).

At the end of the day, the Twins might prefer to hold out a bit longer before waving the proverbial white flag, but they’d need a historic rally to overcome a 13.5-game deficit in the division or a 12.5-game deficit in the Wild Card race at this point in the season. It increasingly feels like a matter of time before they start moving some short-term veterans, with the greater question being how aggressively they’ll sell rather than whether they’ll sell at all.

Twins, Taylor Rogers Avoid Arbitration

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After hammering out deals with the rest of their arbitration class last night, the Twins have now also agreed to a one-year deal with left-hander Taylor Rogers, tweets Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Rogers, who has served as the Twins’ primary closer over the past two seasons, will be paid a $6MM salary next year.

Rogers, 30 in two weeks, had a handful of rough outings in 2020 but has emerged as one of the more effective lefties in the game over the past several seasons. Dating back to 2018, he’s given the Twins 157 1/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball with a 2.62 FIP to support that mark. Along the way, he’s tallied 41 saves and averaged 10.8 strikeouts, 1.8 walks and 0.74 homers per nine frames while inducing grounders at a solid 46.7 percent clip. Rogers did post a 4.05 ERA in 20 innings this past season, but a 24-to-4 K/BB ratio and a sterling 2.84 FIP paint a more favorable picture.

Rogers’ return will give the Twins some continuity, but the surprising decision to non-tender Matt Wisler thinned out a bullpen that was already facing a good bit of turnover. Trevor May has already signed with the Mets, and the Twins declined their $5MM option on veteran Sergio Romo. Right-hander Tyler Clippard, too, is a free agent. Those four pitchers combined for 94 2/3 innings of 2.85 ERA ball with a 122-to-32 K/BB ratio and eight saves in 2020. Suffice it to say there’s some work to be done.

This was the third of four trips through the arbitration process for Rogers, who first qualified as a Super Two player following the 2018 season. The Twins control him through the 2022 season. With Rogers’ deal now in place, the Twins are already done with their entire arbitration class. They non-tendered left fielder Eddie Rosario and Wisler last night while also announcing one-year deals with right-hander Jose Berrios ($6.1MM), center fielder Byron Buxton ($5.125MM), righty Tyler Duffey ($2.2MM) and catcher Mitch Garver ($1.875MM).

Those moves place the team’s 2021 payroll at about $92MM — or about $40MM shy of what would’ve been last year’s Opening Day payroll mark, as was projected to be the case in our Offseason Outlook on the Twins. It’s not clear just how aggressively owner Jim Pohlad is willing to spend in the aftermath of 2020’s revenue losses, but in addition to the glaring needs in the bullpen and the likely hunt for a rotation upgrade, the team has also been negotiating a potential return with designated hitter Nelson Cruz.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/2/20

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With the non-tender deadline coming today at 7pm CT, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2021 season, avoiding arbitration in advance.  In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections.  Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market.  Speculatively, such deals could increase in 2020 due to the economic uncertainty sweeping through the game, although there are also widespread expectations of record non-tender numbers.

You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through today’s smaller-scale pre-tender deals in this post.  You can also check out Matt Swartz’s arbitration salary projections here.

Latest Agreements

Earlier Agreements

  • Twins righty Jose Berrios will earn $6.1MM with a $500K signing bonus in 2021, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Catcher Mitch Garver will rake in $1.875MM, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. Center fielder Byron Buxton ($5.125MM) and reliever Taylor Rogers (terms not released) also agreed to deals, according to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune.
  • The Phillies have deals with starter Zach Eflin ($4.45MM) and relievers Hector Neris ($5MM), David Hale ($850K) and Seranthony Dominguez ($727,500), Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, Heyman and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com relay.
  • The Marlins and first baseman Garrett Cooper have a $1.8MM agreement that could max out at $2.05MM with performance bonuses, Craig Mish of Sportsgrid tweets.
  • The Brewers are keeping catcher Manny Pina in the fold for $1.65MM, according to Heyman. They’re also retaining first baseman Daniel Vogelbach for $1.4MM, Nightengale reports.
  • The Giants and outfielder Austin Slater have a one-year, $1.15MM deal, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.The club also reached a $925K agreement with lefty Wandy Peralta and a $700K pact with righty Trevor Gott, Heyman tweets.
  • The Cubs are bringing back hurlers Dan Winkler ($900K), Colin Rea ($702,500) and Kyle Ryan ($800K), Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Ryan’s agreement is a split contract that features a $250K minor league salary.
  • The Mets are retaining lefty Steven Matz for $5.2MM, Nightengale tweets. Matz had a brutal campaign in 2020 with a 9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP over 30 2/3 innings in 2020, but the Mets will give him a chance to rebound.
  • The Padres and lefty Matt Strahm have a one-year, $2MM deal, Nightengale reports. Strahm gave the Padres a 2.61 ERA/4.93 FIP in 20 2/3 innings in 2020.
  • Outfielder Guillermo Heredia, whom the Mets claimed from Pittsburgh in August, will earn $1MM in 2021, according to Nightengale.
  • The Astros and reliever Austin Pruitt have settled for $617, 500, per Heyman. The right-hander missed the season with elbow issues.
  • The Royals and outfielder Jorge Soler have agreed to a one-year, $8.05MM deal with $250K in incentives, Nightengale reports. Soler was a 48-home run hitter in 2019, but his production went backward this past season, in which he slashed .228/.326/.443 with eight HRs in 174 trips to the plate.
  • The Red Sox have kept relievers Matt Barnes ($4.4MM) and Ryan Brasier ($1.25MM) and catcher Kevin Plawecki ($1.6MM), per tweets from Nightengale, Robert Murray of FanSided and Heyman. Barnes has been a solid reliever as a member of the Red Sox, though he yielded more than five walks per nine and upward of four runs per nine in 2020. Brasier was more successful this past season, as he tossed 25 frames of 3.96 ERA/3.15 FIP ball and averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine. Plawecki had a nice year as the backup to Christian Vazquez, as he batted .341/.393/.463 in 89 PA.
  • The Giants and southpaw Jarlin Garcia have settled for $950K, according to Heyman. Garcia is coming off an 18 1/3-inning effort in which he posted a near-perfect 0.49 (with an impressive 3.14 FIP) and 6.87 K/9 against 3.44 BB/9.
  • The Marlins have agreed to a one-year, $4.3MM deal with first baseman Jesus Aguilar, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. The 30-year-old slugger put up strong numbers in his first year with the Fish, slashing .277/.352/.457 with eight long balls in 216 plate appearances.
  • The Giants and outfielder Alex Dickerson settled at a year and $2MM, tweets Nightengale. The 30-year-old slugger has a lengthy injury history but has been excellent in limited work with the Giants, including a .298/.371/.576 slash in 170 plate appearances this past season.
  • Luis Cessa will be back with the Yankees on a one-year deal, tweets Nightengale. He’ll earn $1.05MM. The righty notched a 3.32 ERA and 3.79 FIP with a 17-to-7 K/BB ratio in 21 2/3 innings this past season. Fellow righty Ben Heller will also return, the team announced, though it didn’t disclose financial details.
  • First baseman Matt Olson and the Athletics settled on a one-year deal worth $5MM, tweets Nightengale. The 26-year-old Olson’s .198/.310/.424 slash was an obvious step back from his 2019 campaign, but he’s still viewed as a vital part of the club’s future moving forward.
  • The Braves and righty Luke Jackson agreed to a one-year deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The 29-year-old was rocked for a 6.84 ERA in this year’s shortened slate of games but posted a 3.84 ERA and 3.24 FIP with better than 13 K/9 as one of the team’s steadiest relievers in 2019. The contract is valued at $1.9MM, per a team announcement.
  • The Brewers are bringing back catcher Omar Narvaez for one year and $2.5MM, Heyman tweets. Narvaez was a very good offensive catcher from 2o16-19 with the White Sox and Mariners, but he struggled last season after the M’s traded him to the Brewers. Thanks in part to a career-worst 31 percent strikeout rate, Narvaez could only muster a .176/.294/.269 line and a paltry two HRs in 126 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he’s in line to return to the Brewers for a second season.
  • The Brewers have agreed to a one-year, $2MM contract with shortstop Orlando Arcia, Nightengale relays. Arcia endured serious struggles on offense in prior years, but the 26-year-old managed a respectable .260/.317/.416 line with five home runs over 189 plate appearances this past season.
  • The Phillies and catcher Andrew Knapp have reached a one-year, $1.1MM agreement, per Nightengale. Typically a light-hitting backstop, Knapp batted a career-best .278/.404/.444 in 89 plate appearances in 2020. He’s currently the No. 1 catcher on a Phillies team that could lose J.T. Realmuto in free agency.
  • Pirates infielder Erik Gonzalez agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.225MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. It was the second year of arb eligibility for Gonzalez, whose glovework will earn him a contract despite a brutal .227/.255/.359 batting line in 193 plate appearances in 2020.
  • The Royals and Hunter Dozier agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.72MM in entirely guaranteed money, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports.  More is available to Dozier via contract incentives.  Dozier hit .228/.344/.392 over 186 PA after missing over the first two weeks of the season recovering from a positive COVID-19 diagnosis.
  • The Red Sox agreed to an $870K deal with right-hander Austin Brice for the 2021 season, as per Nightengale.  Brice posted a 5.95 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 5.9 BB/9 over 19 2/3 innings in his first season in Boston, and was considered a potential non-tender candidate.
  • The Twins and righty Tyler Duffey agreed to a one-year, $2.2MM pact, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports.  According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, Duffey’s deal is fully guaranteed.
  • The Braves agreed to a one-year, $900K deal with southpaw Grant Dayton, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  Dayton had a 2.30 ERA over 27 1/3 innings in 2020.
  • The Braves announced an agreement with utilityman Johan Camargo on a one-year, $1.36MM deal.  Camargo was thought to be a non-tender candidate after struggling to a .222/.267/.378 slash line in 375 plate appearances over the last two seasons, but he will return for a fifth year in Atlanta.
  • The White Sox and left-hander Jace Fry agreed to a one-year deal worth $862.5K, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Fry posted a 3.66 ERA, 2.00 K/BB rate, and 11.0 K/9 over 19 2/3 innings in 2020, and he has strong overall career numbers against left-handed batters.
  • The Orioles agreed with second baseman Yolmer Sanchez on a one-year deal worth $1MM, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).  Baltimore claimed Sanchez off waivers from the White Sox at the end of October.  A Gold Glove winner in 2019, Sanchez was non-tendered by Chicago prior to last year’s deadline, though after signing a minors deal with the Giants, he returned to the White Sox on another minors deal and appeared in 11 games on the South Side.
  • The Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth roughly $700K with left-hander Caleb Thielbar, The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman reports (via Twitter).  2020 marked Thielbar’s first taste of MLB action since 2015, as the southpaw worked his way back from independent ball to post a 2.25 ERA, 2.44 K/BB rate, and 9.9 K/9 over 20 innings for Minnesota.
  • The Dodgers and left-hander Scott Alexander have agreed to a one-year, $1MM deal, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  Alexander posted a 2.92 ERA over 12 1/3 innings out of the Los Angeles bullpen this season, recording an equal number of walks and strikeouts (nine).  The southpaw was thought to be a potential non-tender candidate given his relative lack of usage and his non-inclusion on the Dodgers’ playoff roster, but the team will retain Alexander for his second arb-eligible year.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter) adds the noteworthy detail that Alexander’s $1MM salary is fully guaranteed, as opposed to the usual contracts for arbitration-eligible players that allow their teams to release them prior to Opening Day and only pay a fraction of the agreed-upon salary.

A Quietly Built, Quietly Strong Bullpen

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The 2019 Twins captured the baseball world’s attention with their historic home run output, and most of the other talk surrounding the team focused on questions within the rotation. The Twins won the AL Central with ease but were yet again bounced by the Yankees in a familiarly lopsided series. Entering the offseason on a low note and with four starting pitchers reaching free agency, the focus was again on the rotation. Yet somewhere along the way, the Twins quietly put together one of the most formidable collections of relievers in the game.

Following last year’s All-Star break, Twins relievers ranked ninth in the Majors in ERA (4.03) but led MLB in FIP (3.56), xFIP (3.87), SIERA (3.53) K-BB% (20.7%) and walk rate (5.9%). The Twins, long known for their reliance on soft-tossing, “pitch to contact” arms, saw their bullpen post the fifth-best overall strikeout percentage (26.6%). They tied for fourth in swinging-strike percentage (13.1%) and ranked fifth in opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone (33.9%).

A half season’s worth of bullpen data is obviously not a definitive declaration of their status as elite, but the post-All-Star-break qualifier is of some note with regard to the Twins in particular. Minnesota opened the season with a host of reclamation projects and cast-offs in the relief corps. From Opening Day through the Midsummer Classic, the Twins saw Mike Morin, Blake Parker, Matt Magill, Ryne Harper, Adalberto Mejia and Trevor Hildenberger all make at least 13 appearances and total 14 or more innings. Harper, to his credit, was a legitimate contributor — although fielding-independent metrics forecast some regression, and his production faded in the second half.

The rest of that largely nondescript group was more or less out of the picture in the second half. Mejia, Morin, Magill and Parker were designated for assignment in a span of two weeks in mid-July. Mejia was claimed by the Angels, Morin was traded to the Phillies for cash, Parker also signed in Philadelphia after electing free agency, and Magill was traded to Seattle for cash. Harper’s role was reduced as his results regressed, and Hildenberger only tossed 2 1/3 innings as September call-up before being non-tendered in the winter. (Harper was designated for assignment and traded to the Nats in February.)

What was left of the Twins’ bullpen proved to be a remarkably effective unit.

Taylor Rogers, Mitch Garver | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Taylor Rogers cemented himself as the club’s closer after the addition of a new slider spurred a 2018 breakout. He threw his first slider in 2018 on Memorial Day, and dating back to that game, Rogers owns a 2.07 ERA (2.52 FIP, 2.77 xFIP) with 11.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9 and a 48.7 percent ground-ball rate in 117 1/3 innings.

Tyler Duffey showed promise as a starter in his debut season with Minnesota but had bounced between the Majors and minors since. Duffey has acknowledged that at first, he wasn’t fully comfortable or familiar with much of the new data that was presented to him by the Twins’ analytics department, but he fully bought in this year and ditched his two-seamer and changeup to go with a four-seam and curveball-heavy arsenal. The result? A 2.50 ERA (3.06 FIP, 2.94 xFIP) with a career-high 12.8 K/9 and a whopping 15.3 percent swinging strike rate. In the second half of the season, Duffey posted a 1.53 ERA with a 47-to-8 K/BB ratio.

Tyler Duffey | David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

Another former starter, Trevor May, has steadily improved his relief work since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018. The 30-year-old free-agent-to-be rattled off 64 1/3 innings of 2.94 ERA ball in 2019, including a 2.81 ERA (3.81 FIP, 3.67 xFIP) in 32 second-half innings. May saw his strikeout percentage spike from 25.5% in the first half to a hefty 35% in the second half, and his walk rate made similarly positive gains (11.9% in the first half; 7.3% in the second).

The Twins’ late-July acquisition of veteran Sergio Romo wasn’t the biggest headline grabber of deadline season, but the three-time World Series champ pitched 22 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball (3.35 FIP, 3.91 xFIP) with a pristine 27-to-4 K/BB ratio. The two-plus months Romo spent in the organization clearly made a favorable impression, as he returned on a one-year, $5MM deal with a club option for the 2021 season.

But the most anonymous parts of the bullpen’s success were rookie right-handers Zack Littell and Cody Stashak.

Littell, a 24-year-old rookie, was summoned for depth in mid-May and took a long-relief beating during a blowout in order to save the ’pen (eight runs in four innings). Optioned to Triple-A the next day, Littell returned about a month later and proceeded to reel off 30 2/3 innings of 0.88 ERA ball with a 27-to-8 K/BB ratio. The only runs scored against him came on a trio of solo homers. Obviously, Littell isn’t going to make it through a season with a 100% strand rate, but that dominant finish to the year likely cemented his spot in the ’pen.

As for Stashak, he was never regarded as a prospect of particular note even within the Twins’ system, but he logged a 3.13 ERA with a 23-to-1 K/BB ratio in 23 innings in his MLB debut. Stashak is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who doesn’t throw especially hard or generate great spin on his heater or four-seamer … yet he posted an eye-popping 28.7% swinging-strike rate on his slider last year. There’s likely some regression coming for both Littell and Stashak, but both positioned themselves as near-term pieces even if they do take a step back.

At this point, outside of Rogers, the closer, it’s perhaps become apparent that this is a group of all right-handers. As such, targeting lefty relievers seemed like a logical course of action this winter. And the Twins did indeed go out and get the reliever who was the second-toughest pitcher on lefties in all of baseball last year (min. 30 innings): Tyler Clippard — another righty.

Clippard joined the Twins on a modest $2.75MM guarantee for the 2020 season, and while he doesn’t throw with his left hand (obviously), his dominant changeup makes him an excellent weapon against southpaw swingers all the same. Lefties posted a laughable .123/.210/.255 batting line against Clippard in 2019. That translated to a .207 wOBA, tying Roberto Osuna and trailing only Oliver Drake (another former Twin — oops) for best in the big leagues. That wasn’t necessarily a one-year aberration, either, as Clippard has better career numbers against lefties (.187/.266/.322) than righties (.207/.295/.387).

If the Twins want to add a true lefty to the mix, they can always move Devin Smeltzer and/or hard-throwing Lewis Thorpe into that role, although the plan for them  appeared to be to continue working as starters early this spring. Perhaps expanded rosters will bring that pair and others into play; righties Randy Dobnak, Jorge Alcala and Sean Poppen all made their big league debuts last year, with Dobnak in particular impressing as a starter. Waiver claim Matt Wisler is another depth option with an intriguing Statcast profile. Among non-roster players, southpaw Danny Coulombe punched out 61 hitters in 36 1/3 Triple-A frames last year and had looked impressive with the Twins this spring. Jhoulys Chacin could give some long relief innings and provide rotation depth.

The Twins’ bullpen may be lacking a bit in name value, but among the 366 pitchers who faced at least 200 hitters last year, the Twins placed five in the top 70 in terms of xwOBA: Rogers (20), Duffey (22), Clippard (31), Romo (43) and May (tied for 70th). And none of their second half success was attributable to their biggest deadline pickup — righty Sam Dyson, who now famously kept a shoulder injury to himself prior to being traded and required surgery after just 11 1/3 ugly innings.

When a team jettisons about half its bullpen in a two-week span in July and sees its primary deadline acquisition bust, most would expect rough waters ahead. Instead, the Twins quietly enjoyed some of the best relief work of any club in last year’s second half and look well positioned for the future. Both May and Clippard will be free agents this coming winter, but there’s plenty of room to re-sign either and several depth in-house depth options to step up into those spots should they land elsewhere.

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