Teoscar Hernandez Dealing With Rib Injury
Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernández is dealing with left rib cage stiffness, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun (Twitter link) first reported that Hernández had suffered a rib-related injury. He’s headed for further examination, notes Nicholson-Smith (via Twitter). Longley adds that Hernández is likely ticketed for the injured list.
Needless to say, an extended absence for Hernández would be a massive blow for the 21-18 Blue Jays, who are tied with the Yankees for second place in the AL East. Hernández has seemingly broken out in his age-27 season, putting up a monstrous .308/.358/.637 slash line. Only Mike Trout (15) has hit more runs than Hernández, who has slugged 14 in just 159 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly, the right-handed hitting Hernández also sits near the top of the league’s Statcast hitting metrics, with a 97th percentile or better mark in terms of average exit velocity, hard contact rate, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage.
Derek Fisher is starting in Hernández’s customary right field spot for Toronto against the Red Sox this afternoon. He figures to pick up the lion’s share of playing time there if Hernández winds up missing time.
The Blue Jays’ Uncertain Outfield Mix
When the Blue Jays were at their peak in 2015-16, the outfield wasn’t much of an issue. Jose Bautista was holding down right field as one of MLB’s most feared hitters — the brash owner of a .243/.372/.499 slash line that underscored his patience at the plate and his thunderous power. In center field, Kevin Pillar was a staple on highlight reels thanks to a superhuman defensive prowess that led to his gaudy 38 Defensive Runs Saved in that two-year stretch. Pillar’s .272/.309/.388 slash wasn’t particularly impressive, but paired with his world-beating defense, that made him a plenty valuable player on the whole.
Left field was a bit shakier, if only because of persistent injury troubles for the since-retired Michael Saunders. More often than not, Saunders was in the lineup, though the Jays also trotted out Ben Revere, Ezequiel Carrera and Danny Valencia at times. That was the closest they’ve come to any real inconsistency in that time.
That continuity feels like a distant memory now, as the Jays have since turned over their entire outfield mix on multiple occasions and yet still don’t have much certainty. It appears likely that 2019 breakout slugger Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will get the first look in left field whenever play resumes. His 2019 season at the plate was undeniably impressive — .277/.327/.541, 20 homers in 343 PAs — but it also came in a season that was skewed by a juiced ball. Gurriel’s glovework didn’t rate well, either, though he’s a converted infielder so perhaps there’ll be an uptick with more experience.
Center field seems likely to go to Randal Grichuk, though at this point that’s because of his contract more than his recent play. The Jays signed Grichuk to a surprising extension last spring, and Grichuk responded with a career-worst .232/.280/.457 slash. That .280 OBP was the worst in baseball among qualified hitters. Even without a 2020 season, Grichuk would still be owed $29MM from 2021-23, so he’s sure to get a chance (or multiple chances) at redemption — but a replacement-level showing in year one of the deal isn’t what the Jays had in mind.
The remaining outfield options (in alphabetical order):
- Anthony Alford, drafted in third round (2012): A two-sport star who could’ve pursued a career in football as well, Alford has received just 59 plate appearances in the past three seasons and now finds himself out of minor league options. Alford was a top 100 prospect each year from 2016-18, but he’s yet to even hit in Triple-A and now has no clear path to playing time in such a crowded mix.
- Jonathan Davis, drafted in the 15th round (2013): Davis will turn 28 in a few weeks and has just 122 MLB plate appearances to his credit (with a .185/.264/.259 slash). Davis runs well and has shown a patient eye at the plate in the upper minors, but he’s been a roughly average bat in Triple-A and seems more like a fourth outfielder than a big league regular.
- Brandon Drury, acquired from Yankees in exchange for J.A. Happ: As recently as 2016-17, Drury looked like a solid multi-positional piece with the D-backs. Since hitting .275/.323/.453 in that stretch, though, he’s been traded to the Yankees and then the Jays, hitting just .210/.261/.362 in 533 plate appearances along the way. Drury popped up an astonishing 21 times in just 447 plate appearances this past season, and his strikeout rate has risen from 20 percent in ’16 to 25.3 percent in ’19.
- Derek Fisher, acquired from the Astros in exchange for Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini: With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Michael Brantley, Jake Marisnick and Kyle Tucker all ahead of him during his time with Houston, Fisher never got much of a chance. Like McKinney, he’s not fooled by Triple-A pitching (career .289/.379/.520), but Fisher has whiffed in nearly 37 percent of his 419 Major League plate appearances — including a 40.2 percent mark in 107 PAs with Toronto. He, too, is out of minor league options.
- Teoscar Hernandez, acquired from the Astros in exchange for Francisco Liriano: Hernandez came to the Jays as an exit-velocity darling and still makes plenty of good contact, but his hard-hit rate and average exit velo did trend in the wrong direction last year. His strikeout issues aren’t as pronounced as those of Fisher, but Hernandez has punched out at a 32 percent clip in just shy of 1000 Blue Jays plate appearances.
- Billy McKinney, acquired from Yankees in exchange for J.A. Happ: A former first-round pick (Athletics, 2013), McKinney has been traded from Oakland to Chicago to New York to Toronto — never receiving a real big league opportunity prior to Toronto. He’s since appeared in 120 games and taken 404 plate appearances with the Jays, but he’s mustered a tepid .227/.289/.437 slash in that stretch. McKinney has consistently hit Triple-A pitching, but that hasn’t stopped the Jays from acquiring new outfield options to join the competition.
The Jays have a potential breakout candidate in left field (Gurriel), a rebound candidate in center (Grichuk) and what seems competition brewing in a make-or-break year for many of their remaining players. The DH spot will give them some extra opportunities to evaluate all of their options from an offensive standpoint, but they’ll also want to get a look at Rowdy Tellez in that spot.
Both Alford and Fisher need to remain on the big league roster or else be exposed to waiver, while Hernandez and McKinney each have just one option year remaining. Drury is more of a utility option than an everyday piece in the outfield, but he was already in danger of being non-tendered this winter and is down to his final option year as well.
On the whole, it’s a rather underwhelming cast of characters despite the club’s considerable efforts to bring together a mix of intriguing, often post-hype outfield candidates. Between this group’s eroding minor league options and talk of Cavan Biggio eventually moving to the outfield — although defensive metrics thought his work at second base was plenty good in ’19 — it’s possible that no one from this set of players will be a part of the next contending outfield unit in Toronto.
The Jays already made one aggressive, win-now move this winter when they signed Hyun-Jin Ryu, and team president Mark Shapiro recently indicated that the Jays could use a center field upgrade. If this group can’t get it done whenever play resumes, it seems likely that Shapiro, GM Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office will be left with little choice other than pursuing more established options now that the club is moving away from its rebuilding phase.
10 Players Switch Agencies
Agent Rafa Nieves’ newly-founded Republik Sports agency will represent several players formerly represented by Nieves at Wasserman. A video published earlier today on Republik’s official Twitter feed reveals the names of 11 players who will continue to be represented by Nieves at this new firm.
We already heard last night that Nationals outfielder Victor Robles (a Nieves client at Wasserman) was joining Republik, and the other ten names cited in the video include a mix of prominent veteran and up-and-coming stars. The list consists of Indians infielder Jose Ramirez, Reds right-hander Luis Castillo, Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco, Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas, Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela, Padres outfielder Franchy Cordero, Marlins catcher Francisco Cervelli, and White Sox relievers Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera.
As we’ve seen in several past cases of representatives changing agencies or starting new agencies, it’s quite common for players to continue using the same agent even after that rep becomes part of another company. We saw this in 2017 with Nieves himself, as several of the aforementioned players (namely Ramirez, Robles, Herrera, Colome, Cervelli, Polanco, and Montas) all went with Nieves when the agent moved from the Beverly Hills Sports Council to Wasserman.
The 10 changes have all been updated in our Agency Database. If you see any notable errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via e-mail: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Mark Shapiro On Blue Jays’ Offseason
Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro joined Sportsnet’s Tim and Sid (link to YouTube) to discuss the state of the team’s offseason efforts. He emphasized that “there’s still a good amount of offseason left” and suggested further additions are yet to come.
Shapiro acknowledged that the market has driven salaries higher than anticipated. In response, the club has “adjusted our threshold on players and gone … a certain percentage higher than we thought we would go.”
That still hasn’t resulted in any major additions, with Shapiro explaining that a variety of circumstances have kept the Jays from locking up certain targets. One particular challenge, he suggested, lies in convincing players of the team’s readiness to win games. That seems to present a bit of a chicken/egg dilemma, though obviously the organization hopes that its on-field output will improve from within as well as benefiting from new additions.
So what of the hoped for “significant additions”? Shapiro says the club has “already added” — a nod to the still-unofficial Tanner Roark and Shun Yamaguchi additions — and is “not done this winter.” (Shapiro suggests the club values Yamaguchi for his ability to provide rotation depth and “upside out of the pen.” ) But Shapiro acknowledged it’s less likely now than it once was that the club will install one major player, though he made clear he’s still holding out hope.
Shapiro asks that the organization be judged at the end of the winter and based upon the entirety of the roster movement that occurs. He believes there’ll be “significant” improvement by that standard when camp opens in the spring.
But Shapiro also left some unmistakable warnings not to expect too much. He cited the need to maintain “future flexibility” for a hoped-for “window of opportunity,” explaining that the organization must “grudgingly approach giving up that flexibility.” And when asked about potentially adding to the position-player mix, Shapiro used the opportunity to explain why the organization is hesitant to “give up” on certain players, proffering Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher as examples.
Blue Jays Notes: Giles, Japanese FAs, Gurriel, Hernandez
While Blue Jays reliever Ken Giles looks like an obvious offseason trade candidate, general manager Ross Atkins indicated Tuesday it’s not a sure thing the team will deal him. “We’ve been really focused on acquiring players. We really haven’t engaged on trading players away much at all,” Atkins said in regards to Giles (per Jon Morosi of MLB.com). The flamethrowing Giles may have been out of Toronto by now had he been healthy at the July 31 deadline, but elbow issues helped prevent a trade from coming together. The 29-year-old was utterly brilliant in 2019, though, as he recorded a 1.87 ERA/2.27 FIP with 14.09 K/9, 2.89 BB/9 and 23 saves on 24 tries over 53 innings. Giles is now going into his final season of arbitration, in which he’s projected to make an affordable $8.4MM.
Here’s more on Toronto, all of which comes courtesy of Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter links: 1, 2, 3, 4)
- The Blue Jays have interest in Japanese free agents (or soon-to-be free agents) Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Shogo Akiyama and Ryosuke Kikuchi, Atkins revealed. Tsutsugo’s a 27-year-old corner outfielder who has smacked 205 home runs in exactly 4,000 plate appearances in Nippon Professional Baseball. The Yokohama DeNA BayStars intend to post him by Dec. 5. Akiyama will try to parlay a strong nine-year run with the Seibu Lions of NPB into a major league contract. The 31-year-old center fielder, who won’t be subjected to the posting system, may have the highest upside of the three when it comes to earning power, as MLBTR projects he’ll rake in a two-year, $6MM guarantee this offseason. Kikuchi, a member of NPB’s Hiroshima Carp, will be posted after eight seasons with the club. The 29-year-old second baseman has not been an offensive standout in Japan, but he has thrived defensively.
- Toronto’s at least considering using outfielders Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez in the infield next season, per Atkins. Gurriel began his career as a middle infielder, but he struggled enough there that the team shifted him to left field in 2019. That experiment paid off, though it’s reportedly possible Gurriel could be an offseason trade chip for the club. As for Hernandez, although the .230/.306/.472 line he put up in 464 plate appearances this year doesn’t look great, he did go on a second-half tear and finish with 26 home runs. But Hernandez had difficulty in center field, where he accounted for minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.7 Ultimate Zone Rating. Going forward, he might see time at first and/or second, Atkins suggested. Toronto looks to be in fine shape at the keystone, where Cavan Biggio enjoyed a terrific rookie season, though first is a question mark. Justin Smoak‘s a free agent, and Rowdy Tellez didn’t have an especially successful year.
AL East Notes: Lowe, Mancini, Fisher
The Rays‘ decision to option Nate Lowe back to Triple-A Durham following the trade deadline was a “very tough call,” manager Kevin Cash tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. With the acquisition of Jesus Aguilar, however, the Rays had three first basemen on the roster and Ji-Man Choi‘s lack of minor league options once again came into play. Tampa Bay seems loath to risk losing Choi on waivers, but Lowe has handily outperformed him at the plate so far, hitting .294/.362/.510 to Choi’s .265/.361/.423. Choi has shown better knowledge of the strike zone, but Lowe nevertheless appears to be the better offensive option between the two (even if he’s had some good fortune in terms of a .362 average on balls in play). Cash expects that Lowe will be back up with the club “soon,” but that redundancy will eventually be an issue the Rays need to address.
More out of the AL East…
- Trey Mancini remains in Baltimore after the trade deadline, but the decision not to move him doesn’t mean an extension is the next step for the slugger. “Looking at contract extensions is just not at the forefront of my plate right now,” Orioles general manager Mike Elias tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, “but certainly he’s an attractive guy to have here for a while.” It’s not the first time that Elias, hired to spearhead the Orioles’ rebuild this offseason, has suggested that he views Mancini as a potential long-term piece. But Mancini is already controlled through 2022 — his age-30 season. Given that he won’t even reach arbitration until this winter, there’s simply not much urgency to extend Mancini, even if he’s in the midst of the best season of his young career. Through 443 plate appearances, Mancini has posted a robust .282/.343/.539 slash (130 OPS+) with a career-high 25 home runs. Elias also praised the recent play of outfielder Anthony Santander the manner in which he has begun to establish himself as a viable big league hitter.
- The Blue Jays have a crowded outfield mix, but newly acquired Derek Fisher is going to get regular playing time and an opportunity to establish himself as a fixture in the Toronto outfield, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes. Most of Fisher’s reps will come in center or right field, as Toronto doesn’t want to disrupt Lourdes Gurriel Jr.‘s transition to left field (or his offensive breakout). That leaves Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk and Billy McKinney vying for playing time between center, right and occasional reps at DH. Hernandez has been on an otherworldly tear, clubbing seven homers and three doubles in his past 15 games, which should help to keep him in the lineup. If there’s to be an odd man out, McKinney seems the likeliest candidate, given that he has minor league options remaining. But the semi logjam also serves as a reminder that Randal Grichuk hasn’t performed anywhere near as well as hoped in the first season of the head-scratching extension to which the Jays signed him back in April. He’s played solid defense, but Grichuk hasn’t exactly seized an everyday role with his .232/.290/.418 batting line.
Blue Jays Call Up Teoscar Hernandez
The Blue Jays have brought outfielder Teoscar Hernandez back from Triple-A Buffalo, according to a team announcement, with Jonathan Davis going back to Buffalo in the corresponding move. Hernandez is in tonight’s starting lineup in center field, and general manager Ross Atkins told reporters (including Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi) that Toronto will regularly deploy Hernandez as a center fielder going forward.
The idea of Hernandez in such an important defensive role would have been unthinkable even a few months ago, as the 26-year-old looked borderline unplayable in left field for much of the 2018 season. However, a lot of offseason work led to a big turnaround in the early portion of this season, as Hernandez had a 20.8 UZR/150 and a +1 Defensive Run Saved over 295 1/3 innings as a left fielder in 2019.
Center field presents a much larger challenge, as Hernandez hasn’t played the position at the big-league level since 2017. The Jays would probably just be happy with average glovework from Hernandez in center as they continue to sort through their outfield picture. Randal Grichuk has seen the bulk of center field work since Kevin Pillar was traded to the Giants, though Grichuk will now move back to right field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. should continue to see regular duty in left field, with Brandon Drury and Cavan Biggio also available for corner outfield work.
Beyond playing center field at Buffalo, Hernandez’s time at Triple-A was also intended as a way to get himself sorted at the plate. Hernandez was hitting just .189/.262/.299 at the time of his demotion, with only three homers in 141 PA and suffering from a huge dropoff in his power. Hernandez was a very hot-and-cold hitter in 2018, though he finished the season with a .239/.302/.468 slash line, 22 home runs, and a 107 wRC+ over 532 PA.
Blue Jays Option Teoscar Hernandez, Outright Socrates Brito
The Blue Jays announced Thursday that outfielder Teoscar Hernandez has been optioned to Triple-A Buffalo and that fellow outfielder Socrates Brito cleared waivers and has been assigned outright to Buffalo following his recent DFA. Infielder Richard Urena is up from Triple-A in place of Hernandez.
Toronto has held high hopes for Hernandez since acquiring him from the Astros back in 2017, but while he’s shown flashes of his potential, the 26-year-old has yet to establish himself as a consistent producer. Hernandez treated the Jays to about a half season’s worth of production last year, hitting at an impressive .268/.319/.550 pace with 12 homers, 16 doubles and five triples through the season’s first 54 games (238 plate appearances). Hernandez routinely lit up Statcast leaderboards with premium exit velocity readings and hit some prodigious home runs, but he slumped badly in the season’s second half and has seen his quality of contact take a nosedive in 2019.
So far this season, Hernandez is hitting just .189/.262/.299 with a near-30 percent strikeout rate. He’s connected on three home runs but has seen his average exit velocity dip from a hearty 91.8 mph to just 89 mph in 2019. His hard-hit rate, as measured by Statcast, has plummeted from 45.9 percent all the way to 34.9 percent, and he’s seen both his ground-ball and infield-fly rates increase over last season as well.
The endpoint here is arbitrary, but dating back to the middle of last June when his struggles seemingly begun, Hernandez is hitting .206/.279/.366 with a 35.2 percent strikeout rate through 426 plate appearances. That’s a far cry from his encouraging first two and a half months in 2018, and the Jays will hope that some time against lesser competition in a lower-pressure setting can get Hernandez back on track. If he can rebound, there’s still room for him to be a long-term option in the outfield or at designated hitter, but he’ll need to pare back the strikeouts and rediscover the frequent hard contact he made last season when he was in the 97th percentile of all big league hitters in terms of barreled-ball rate.
Brito, meanwhile, was designated for assignment last week after hitting just .077/.163/.128 in 43 plate appearances with the Jays. He’s already bounced from the D-backs to the Padres to the Blue Jays in a series of DFAs, but he went unclaimed this time around and will join Hernandez in attempting to get back on track in Triple-A.
Blue Jays Notes: Vlad Jr., Outfield Corners, Gaviglio
Blue Jays fans have been anxiously anticipating the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but they’ll have to wait a bit longer, as the 19-year-old phenom was placed on the minor league disabled list today after incurring a leg injury (link via Chris Bumbaca of MiLB.com). Guerrero went from first to second on a single, slid into the bag and immediately signaled for a trainer’s assistance before exiting the contest, though Fisher Cats manager John Schneider called the placement “cautious.” The team didn’t disclose further details on Guerrero’s injury, though all indications from the organization to this point seem to be that it’s minor.
Here’s more out of Toronto…
- While the Jays have played Teoscar Hernandez more in right field than it left, it seems that he’ll move to left field on a largely permanent basis moving forward. As MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm writes, the team feels that Hernandez has the arm for right field but that his range and instincts are better suited for the other corner slot. Randal Grichuk will likely get another shot to take the reins in right field, where he comes with a history of strong defensive ratings (career +9.1 UZR/150). Grichuk has gotten off to a disastrous start to his Blue Jays career, hitting .115/.202/.269 in 89 plate appearances, though Statcast gives some reason to be optimistic; Grichuk’s 99.1 mph average exit velocity on balls in the air and knack for barreling the ball have translated to a .318 xwOBA that dwarfs his current .209 wOBA.
- Right-hander Sam Gaviglio has been a rare bright spot in an otherwise dreadful season for the Jays, writes Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet. Acquired in a forgettable spring trade in which the Jays sent only cash considerations to the Royals, Gaviglio has stepped up as one of the club’s most consistent starters and has earned a longer look in the rotation. Through 28 2/3 innings thus far, he’s pitched to a 2.51 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9 and a 54.4 percent ground-ball rate. While it’s obviously a small sample and Gaviglio shouldn’t be expected to continue sporting a sub-3.00 ERA, fielding-independent metrics in that small sample are encouraging. Zwelling takes a look at the manner in which Gaviglio has found his early success. Of course, he also notes that the very fact that Gaviglio is poised to get any type of notable look in the rotation is a testament to the team’s struggles this season and the fact that things have hardly gone as planned. As the Jays struggle, trade chatter surrounding veterans on the club will only increase. J.A. Happ‘s name has already begun to pop up on the rumor mill (FanRag’s Jon Heyman took a look at that earlier today), and if the Jays do deal from their rotation it could open the door for Gaviglio to get an even lengthier audition.
AL East Notes: Gray, Rays, Teoscar
Sonny Gray has been clobbered by opposing hitters this season, and Sheryl Ring of Fangraphs suggests that the root of his struggles could be an organizational pitching philosophy that the Yankees seem to be employing. As Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan highlighted in an excellent piece earlier this month, the Yankees are using far and away the fewest percentage of fastballs in the league in 2018 — continuing a trend of increasingly diminished fastball usage in recent years. Ring notes that Gray, however, has never thrown fewer than 55 percent heaters (combining both his four-seamer and two-seamer/sinker). Gray’s success against lefties, in particular, has been in no small part attributable to the success of his fastball up and in on lefty bats, she observes. While there could obviously be multiple factors at play — Ring also notes a mechanical disparity between Gray’s wind-up from 2015 and from 2018, for instance — it certainly seems plausible that Gray’s increased use of breaking pitches is making it more difficult to position himself in favorable counts. He’s thrown a first-pitch strike to just 50 percent of the hitters he’s faced in 2018 — down from a career-best 61.7 percent in 2017.
More from the division…
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times takes an interesting look at the number of pitchers developed by the Rays in recent years, pointing out that there have been more games started by pitchers who were originally Rays (45 of 722) in the Majors this season than any other team. That doesn’t include starters-turned-relievers like Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Felipe Vazquez. As Topkin notes, that could be used as a damning method of lamenting the frequency with which Tampa Bay has to trade its talent or as a credit to the organization’s general ability to develop quality pitching. Topkin’s column runs through the best of the best in that group of original Rays and also looks at some names who could ascend that list.
- Teoscar Hernandez‘s superlative play with the Blue Jays dating back to last September means he won’t be going back to Triple-A Buffalo anytime soon, as Steve Buffery of the Toronto Sun writes. Manager John Gibbons notes that while the organization saw “a pretty good player” last year when acquiring Hernandez at the non-waiver deadline, Hernandez has improved in 2018 thanks to improved plate discipline and strike-zone recognition. “Who knows what happens (when Donaldson and Tulowitzki come off the DL), but [Hernandez has] got a chance to be an elite player in this game because he does things so easily,” said Gibbons. “He uses the whole field and he’s got as much power as anybody you’re ever going to find.” Hernandez is hitting .316/.391/.702 through 64 plate appearances in 2018 and has posted a collective .283/.340/.641 slash with a dozen homers in 159 PAs since coming over in a trade last July.