Thairo Estrada

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters this evening. San Francisco pulled back to .500 with a win over the Diamondbacks tonight, but they missed the playoffs for the fifth time in Zaidi’s six-season tenure. That has led to speculation about his job security — which only ratcheted up in recent weeks amidst conflicting reports about ownership’s role in handling negotiations on Matt Chapman’s $151MM extension.

Zaidi declined to speculate about his job status but acknowledged that ownership is considering its options. “Anytime you have a disappointing season, it’s my job to evaluate everything in my purview, and it’s their job to evaluate everything in my purview, plus me,” the baseball ops leader said (link via Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). “And so I think that process is happening, and I understand it.”

The Giants and Zaidi agreed to an extension last winter that coincided with Bob Melvin’s hiring as manager. Both the manager and baseball operations leader are on guaranteed contracts for next year with options for the 2026 season. That certainly doesn’t ensure job security — teams regularly dismiss coaches or executives before the end of their deals — but it kept Zaidi from operating on a lame duck basis in 2024.

Any doubt about his status with the organization can’t stop Zaidi from planning the team’s approach to the upcoming offseason. That starts with Blake Snell, who has pitched at a Cy Young level for the better part of four months. The star left-hander is set to decline his $30MM player option and take another shot at a long-term contract.

Zaidi admitted the Giants expect Snell to opt out. He said the Giants will remain in the market but conceded they’ll face stiff competition. “I think it’s going to be a priority for everybody. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball the second half of the season,” Zaidi said of Snell’s market (relayed by Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). “And I think he’s going into free agency the same way he did last offseason. He wants to keep an open mind. We’re encouraged about what he said about how much he likes being here, how much he likes San Francisco and playing for Bob. We’ll be pretty high on his list, but we’re respecting the fact that he’s going to want to play out free agency.”

Snell turns 32 in December. He’ll probably take aim at a six-plus year deal that approaches $200MM. That kind of investment in starting pitching would be out of character for Zaidi. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Giants haven’t gone beyond the $90MM Logan Webb extension for a starting pitcher. The $62MM guarantee they awarded Snell late last winter is their biggest free agent rotation investment.

The Giants have been much more comfortable with short-term upside plays for starting pitchers who want to retest the market than they are with lengthy commitments. That operating procedure made them a strong fit when Snell’s market didn’t materialize the way he’d envisioned last winter, but it’ll present a challenge to keeping him around. San Francisco was content to let Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón walk after striking gold on short-term plays for both pitchers.

If Snell were to depart, Webb would retake his spot as the unquestioned staff ace. He’ll be followed in the rotation by Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray (who is unlikely to opt out of the $50MM remaining on his contract). The Giants could try to stretch Jordan Hicks back out as a starter while giving opportunities to younger arms like Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Keaton Winn. They’d surely add to that group in some capacity after dealing with a number of rotation injuries this season.

Zaidi also addressed the position player mix, specifically saying the Giants will “definitely be in the middle-infield market” (via Rubin). Tyler Fitzgerald has had a fantastic rookie season since taking over at shortstop. The Louisville product connected on his 15th homer tonight and is up to a .287/.338/.510 batting line through 325 plate appearances. His 31.1% strikeout rate is cause for some concern, but Fitzgerald’s power and defensive flexibility have earned him a role somewhere on the diamond.

That could come on the other side of the second base bag. The Giants waived Thairo Estrada last month after he hit .217/.247/.343 in 96 games. Estrada will be a minor league free agent at season’s end. Zaidi lauded Estrada’s professionalism and expressed some confidence that the infielder could rebound in another setting, but he indicated the Giants will go in a different direction.

Moving Fitzgerald to second base while bringing in an established shortstop is an option. Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim are the potential regulars in the free agent class. Zaidi expressed a desire to add “an established, plus defender in the middle infield” via free agency or trade. Adames and Kim would each fit the bill (although the former has had an uncharacteristic spike in errors this season). Both players are going to decline qualifying offers from their current teams and would require draft pick forfeiture. Adames might command a guarantee north of $150MM, while Kim’s deal could land in the $75-100MM range.

Bo Bichette has been the top speculative shortstop trade target. The Blue Jays didn’t seem inclined to move him even before he went on the injured list just before the deadline. Unless the Toronto front office reverses course, they probably won’t sell low during the winter.

There aren’t a ton of obvious middle infield trade candidates. The Reds may listen on Jonathan India, but he’s not the caliber of defender to which Zaidi alluded. That’s also the case with Tampa Bay second baseman Brandon Lowe. The Pirates would probably listen on Isiah Kiner-Falefa, whose offensive production has cratered since a deadline trade with Toronto. There’s a chance the Mariners could move on from J.P. Crawford as they try to reshape their offense.

A free agent pursuit of Adames or Kim, though, would be more straightforward. That’d allow the Giants to use Casey Schmitt in a utility capacity and potentially free them to play Marco Luciano in the outfield. Zaidi said tonight that they’re not closing the door on Luciano winning the second base job, but they’ll need to see improvement (especially defensively) next spring for that to happen.

One area where the Giants don’t seem inclined to make a long-term play: first base. Zaidi indicated the team was reluctant to make an investment that would impede the path for top prospect Bryce Eldridge, their 2023 first-round pick. Eldridge is still a month shy of his 20th birthday, but he mashed at a .335/.442/.619 clip in High-A. He has made cameos at the top two minor league levels, and while he’s unlikely to break camp next year, Zaidi suggested there’s a path for him to debut at some point in 2025.

“Once a guy is in Double-A, Triple-A, they’re in the picture,” Zaidi said (relayed by Baggarly). “I think it behooves us to have a roster that’s flexible enough that if he’s ready next year, even early in the year, there’s a spot for him. So that’s going to be really important for us. I don’t anticipate us really locking up the first base and DH spot.” There’s a solid group of free agent first basemen, headlined by Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, but that doesn’t appear to be a priority for San Francisco.

Of course, these preliminary plans could go in any number of directions if ownership decides to make a front office change. That should be determined within the next few weeks. Giants fans will want to check out both The Athletic and The Chronicle columns in full for more quotes from Zaidi about his vision for the winter.