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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Poll: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Future With The Blue Jays

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While the Blue Jays have been involved in pursuits of a number of major players this winter ranging from Juan Soto to Corbin Burnes to Roki Sasaki, the number one question hanging over the club’s head this offseason is the same one that’s been at the forefront of fans’ minds for years now: will the Blue Jays be able to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before he reaches free agency? And, if not, what will the club do about it? The question is now more urgent than ever, with just over nine months left until Guerrero is set to file for free agency.

Even Guerrero’s relatively short remaining window of team control doesn’t fully illustrate how quickly the Blue Jays are reaching a crossroads, however. Guerrero has made clear that he set a deadline for negotiations of the first full day of Spring Training with the club’s front office. For the Blue Jays, the first full-squad workout is February 18, almost exactly a month away. If club brass and Guerrero’s camp are going to get a deal done ahead of that deadline, they’ll need to make a great deal of progress over the next month: reporting yesterday indicated that the sides last had extension discussions before Christmas, and it seems as though there was a significant gap in negotiations when the sides withdrew from the negotiating table for the holidays.

According to Guerrero, the Jays have offered him a deal in the vicinity of $340MM, and that this offer came prior to Soto signing with the Mets on a record-shattering $765MM deal last month. Meanwhile, reports have suggested that Guerrero’s asking price is believed to be above $400MM and potentially close to half a billion dollars. That’s no insignificant difference. That gap in negotiations hasn’t led the club to shop Guerrero on the open market to this point, and the club has signaled that they have every intention of keeping their star in the fold for the 2025 season.

That hasn’t stopped teams from inquiring, however. Recent reporting suggested that the Mets have checked in with the Blue Jays on the possibility of a Guerrero trade. That conversation doesn’t seem to have garnered significant traction to this point, and reports have indicated that the Jays would need to be bowled over by an offer that brings in a bigger haul than Soto did last winter to even consider moving Guerrero. That’s an incredibly steep asking price for any rental player, though of course it should be noted that last winter’s Soto deal and this offseason’s Kyle Tucker deal have suggested that some clubs are willing to pay exorbitant prices for star players even when they have just one season of control remaining.

It goes without saying that if the Jays see a path towards an extension with Guerrero before his deadline next month, they seem all but certain to pursue that rather than consider dealing him. Should negotiations fall through, however, it will be worth wondering whether or not the club will be able to build a contender around him in his final year before free agency. Landing Sasaki would surely help with that goal, and the Jays clearly have money to spend in free agency. They’ve been attached to top remaining free agents like Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander, and Pete Alonso in recent weeks. All of those names would significantly improve the club, but it’s unlikely any of them individually would do enough to push the Jays from fifth place in the AL East into a playoff spot without significant rebound seasons from established players like Bo Bichette, Kevin Gausman, and Alejandro Kirk who struggled to produce last year.

If an extension can’t be reached and the Jays don’t have confidence in their ability to build a winning club for 2025, it’s easy to make the argument that the club should at least see what Guerrero could bring back on the trade market. If they find an offer that eclipses the package the Padres received for Soto last winter, it’s easy to imagine that greatly accelerating the club’s return to competitiveness in a post-Guerrero era. That would certainly be preferable to missing the playoffs again in 2025 with Guerrero on the roster and losing him for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick in free agency next winter, though trading Guerrero before the season begins would make a playoff run this year all the more difficult to imagine.

The club could also give itself more time to make a decision by supplementing the roster further throughout the winter in an effort to compete this year and then re-evaluating at the trade deadline. With that said, Guerrero would surely be far less attractive as a trade candidate with just two months of team control remaining. His impact for an acquiring club in 2025 would be reduced if they only had him for the stretch run, and perhaps more importantly it’s all but impossible to imagine him entertaining an extension with a new club that close to free agency. The star slugger is sure to garner a significantly larger return if traded before the season begins, but that would all but close the door on playoff baseball in Toronto this year.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation will play out? Will Guerrero and the Blue Jays come to an agreement on an extension before his deadline next month? And if not, will the Jays trade their star slugger before Opening Day or enter the season with him on the roster? Have your say in the poll below!

Latest On Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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After agreeing to a $28.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last week, the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can turn their focus to a long-term deal. The four-time All-Star said last month that the Jays had offered him around $340MM, which he said was well below his asking price. That offer reportedly predated Juan Soto’s $765MM agreement with the Mets that shattered prior contractual precedents.

Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that the Jays have not had any extension talks with Guerrero’s camp since before Christmas. That indicates there was little to no discussion about a long-term deal in the talks to avoid exchanging arbitration filing figures. However, Rosenthal and Sammon write that extension talks are expected to pick back up before the beginning of Spring Training.

Guerrero said last month that he would cut off negotiations as soon as Spring Training begins. It’s common for players to publicly impose deadlines — many prefer not to discuss contracts once the regular season gets underway — but some players will ultimately continue talks beyond those “cutoffs” if they feel negotiations are making progress. If both team and player are amenable, extension discussions can take place at any point.

While Guerrero isn’t going to get Soto money, he’s clearly looking well beyond the $313.5MM extension that Rafael Devers received from the Red Sox over the 2022-23 offseason. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote last week that Guerrero’s asking price was believed to be at or above $450MM. Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggests similarly, reporting that the former MVP runner-up is looking to top $400MM and could aim for a deal closer to the half-billion dollar mark.

It remains to be seen whether the Jays have the appetite for that kind of investment. They made bigger offers to Shohei Ohtani and Soto, suggesting they’re amenable to a huge expenditure for certain players. Ohtani and Soto presented opportunities to add superstars from outside the organization. Extending Guerrero would be a major boost to a fanbase frustrated by a series of near-misses in free agency over the last two winters. It could also be necessary to keep the team from going into a rebuild after next season. Toronto already faces an uphill path to contention in the AL East. Competing in 2026 if Guerrero and Bo Bichette walk may not be feasible.

In any case, the focus seems squarely on an extension. Rosenthal and Sammon write that the team much prefers to keep Guerrero rather than trade him. They suggest that, in order to even consider a trade, the Jays would need to receive a haul that tops what the Yankees sent to the Padres for one year of Soto’s services last winter.

New York sent two seasons of Michael King — who had proven himself as a multi-inning relief weapon and flashed significant upside in a limited look as a starter — as the headliner. The Yankees included highly-regarded pitching prospect Drew Thorpe (whom San Diego flipped as the centerpiece of the Dylan Cease deal), controllable depth starters Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez, and backup catcher Kyle Higashioka to the Padres. The Yanks also got Trent Grisham in the deal.

That’s a massive haul for one year of any player, which reflects the Jays’ preference for holding onto Guerrero. Perhaps that’d change if extension talks don’t progress, though it’d be a major surprise if they dealt him before Opening Day. Toronto hopes to compete for a playoff spot this season. They could still add one of the top unsigned hitters (e.g. Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso). Even if the Jays don’t succeed in extending Guerrero, they’d presumably prefer to see how things play out in the season’s first half before deciding whether to make him available.

Latest On Mets, Pete Alonso

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7:28PM: Alonso and the Mets “are said to be making progress on at least the structure of a proposed deal that’s expected to be for three years and include at least one opt out,” according to Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman.  “While the sides appear amenable to that short-term structure,” Sherman and Heyman write, there’s still “a gap between offer and counteroffer,” with specific figures not mentioned.

5:15PM: The Mets and Pete Alonso have seemingly been in a staredown for quite a while and it’s still unclear who will blink first. Reporting from last week indicated that Alonso’s camp had pitched a short-term deal with opt-outs to the Mets but Alonso remains unsigned. Reports from both Andy Martino of SNY and Joel Sherman of The New York Post suggest a pivot point is coming where the Mets may move on to plans that don’t involve Alonso having a place on the 2025 team.

It has long seemed possible that Alonso’s free agency could go this way. Last winter, the “Boras Four” lingered in free agency well into the new year and eventually settled for contracts below expectations. Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery all signed deals that only were guaranteed for two or three years, though with each player having the chance to opt-out after each season. There were reasons to expect Alonso might follow them down this road.

Alonso reportedly turned down an extension offer of seven years and $158MM back in the summer of 2023. He still had one arbitration season to go at that point, ultimately making $20.5MM in 2024, so he effectively turned down $137.5MM for six free agent years. There had been reports that Alonso was looking at the contracts of Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson at targets. Freeman signed for $162MM over six years, though with deferrals. Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension when he was still two years away from free agency.

But Alonso isn’t as well-rounded of a player as those two. While his power is elite, his plate discipline and defense are both below Freeman and Olson. He’s also coming off a couple of relative down years. He had a career batting line of .261/.349/.535 and a 137 wRC+ through the 2022 season but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 122 wRC+ over the two most recent campaigns. That’s still strong production but it will naturally concern a club thinking about making a long-term investment.

Alonso is still unsigned with pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training in less than a month. There is apparent willingness to pivot to a short-term deal but a deal still hasn’t come together. There is still more time, as Bellinger’s agreement came together in late February last year, Chapman’s in early March. However, today’s reports both point to the Mets starting to consider other options.

The Mets have had a front office shakeup since offering that extension to Alonso. Billy Eppler was the general manager at that time but David Stearns is now running the club’s baseball operations department. Stearns never really dedicated a lot of resources to first base, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. A three-year, $16MM deal for Eric Thames was his biggest investment in the position for the Brewers. Milwaukee non-tendered Chris Carter after he hit 41 home runs in 2016, rather than pay him a projected $8.1MM salary.

Stearns is working with more resources now that he’s with the Mets but has continued to be measured in how he uses those resources, apart from the Juan Soto deal. Instead of signing top free agent starting pitchers, he has taken bounceback fliers on guys like Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning. He also signed Clay Holmes, hoping to get starting pitcher value for reliever prices.

The Mets do have some internal options for corner infield work. Mark Vientos had a great season in 2024, mostly playing third base, but his defense didn’t receive strong grades. It’s been suggested that he could be moved over to first base, with the hot corner then being open for a competition between guys like Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. There’s some uncertainty in going down that road and there would be some sense in adding Alonso back into the mix, but it seems the Mets and Alonso’s camp can’t agree on a fair price.

Teams will naturally be attracted to a short-term deal as it lowers the chances of them being saddled with a player’s decline years, but the player usually looks to get a higher average annual value as a compromise. Bellinger’s deal guaranteed him $80MM but in frontloaded fashion, allowing him to opt out after one year with $30MM in his pocket or after two years with $60MM in the bank. Alonso is perhaps looking for something similar, which the Mets may not be keen on.

The Mets are set to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and RosterResource projects their CBT number at $276MM next year. Signing Alonso to something in the range of $25-30MM annually would push that close to the fourth and final tier of the tax, which is $301MM this year. The Mets would pay a 95% tax on spending from tier three to tier four, then a 110% tax for spending over the top line. As such, even employing Alonso for one year and then having him opt out would cost them something like $60MM. If he has a disappointing season and doesn’t opt out, as happened with Bellinger, they would be stuck with the deal for another year or two.

The Mets also stand to receive draft pick compensation if Alonso signs elsewhere. As a tax payor, their bonus pick wouldn’t be until after the fourth round. That’s not massively important in baseball terms but it’s not nothing and it would go away if they re-sign Alonso.

It’s a tricky calculation for the Mets to make with a franchise favorite, but it seems they are willing to play hard ball and move on to other options soon. Martino does mention that the Mets checked in with the Blue Jays about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but also downplays the talks significantly, characterizing the fit as “fantasy baseball.” That aligns with public comments from Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins, who has often downplayed the likelihood of the Jays trading Guerrero or Bo Bichette.

Martino mentions a reunion with Jesse Winker or signing Anthony Santander as other possible pivots, though he adds that the latter is less likely to come to fruition. For Alonso, if he’s not destined to go back to Queens, he will have to do his own pivot. MLBTR recently looked at some of the clubs that could potentially sign him to a short-term deal, with the Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, Athletics and Tigers some of the options.

Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Avoid Arbitration

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The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have agreed to a $28.5MM salary to avoid an arbitration hearing, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. This does not prevent the sides from discussing a long-term deal in advance of Guerrero’s final year of club control.

Guerrero and the Jays went to a hearing last offseason. The star first baseman proved triumphant and secured a $19.9MM salary rather than the team’s filing figure of $18.05MM. They won’t go through that process this time around. Guerrero agrees to an $8.6MM raise for what’ll be his last trip through the process. That’s a hair below the $29.6MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. He’ll nevertheless be the highest-paid player in this year’s arbitration group. Guerrero wasn’t far off joining Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto as the only players to eclipse the $30MM mark in arbitration.

The far more intriguing question is whether this will be Guerrero’s final contract with the Blue Jays. The four-time All-Star said last month that the Jays had offered him an extension in the $340MM range. Guerrero indicated that was well below his asking price, which USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has suggested is at or above $450MM. The first baseman said he was willing to continue negotiations until the start of Spring Training. He indicated he would test free agency next offseason if no deal is in place once exhibition play begins.

Guerrero finished sixth in MVP balloting last season. He raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers and 44 doubles. His numbers weren’t too far off what he’d produced when he was runner-up behind Ohtani in MVP voting in 2021. He’s on track to get to free agency at age 27, where he and Kyle Tucker would headline the class.

Latest On Blue Jays’ Offseason Pursuits

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The Blue Jays have been surprisingly quiet in free agency thus far. Toronto has been tied to essentially every player of note, but their only signing was a two-year deal for middle reliever Yimi García. The Jays have pulled off one major trade acquisition, taking on the final five years and nearly $100MM on the Andrés Giménez contract from the Guardians.

Based on the lack of free agent activity, the Jays seem to be one of the likeliest teams to land one of the few remaining stars on the open market. However, a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet casts some doubt on that possibility. Davidi writes that the Jays “are believed to be on the periphery” of the markets for Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. Toronto has reportedly made an offer to Anthony Santander, yet Davidi indicates that the Jays do not look like the current favorite to land the former Orioles slugger.

Bregman, Alonso and Santander are the remaining unsigned star-caliber hitters. Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim are viable regulars but clearly below the preceding trio in terms of offensive impact and earning potential. Giménez stabilizes second base but isn’t a huge threat at the plate. If the Jays come up empty on each of Bregman, Santander and Alonso, they’d be left with trade possibilities to spark a middling offense. Davidi writes that Toronto is actively exploring the trade market but does not identify any specific targets for the team.

[Related: Do The Blue Jays Need More Help On Offense Or In The Rotation?]

The Jays were linked to Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried before they inked significant deals earlier in the winter. They lost the bidding to the Mets on Soto. Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks, at least partially because of geographic ties to Arizona. Davidi writes that the Jays were simply not comfortable with the eventual eight-year, $218MM deal that Fried secured from the Yankees. He indicates that Toronto never made an offer once they realized that the bidding was well beyond where they were willing to go.

Toronto narrowly dipped below the luxury tax threshold late last season. They have around $228MM in luxury tax commitments for this year, according to RosterResource. That puts them $13MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. Any kind of free agent splash would push them into tax territory. Davidi indicates that while the Jays aren’t opposed to going into CBT range, they could decide to keep their tax number below $241MM if they don’t land any marquee targets.

An uncertain direction for the organization has hung over the offseason. Toronto has resisted a rebuild, but they’ve only made a few additions to a team that went 74-88. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are one season from free agency. There has never been much of an indication that they’ll extend Bichette. They’ve made an effort to keep Guerrero but seem far apart with the star first baseman.

Guerrero said last month that the team had offered him around $340MM. The four-time All-Star said that wasn’t close to his asking price and indicated that he’d end extension talks if there’s no deal in place by the beginning of Spring Training. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported this week that Guerrero was looking for a deal of at least $450MM. Needless to say, that’s a big gap to bridge. That’d be particularly true if Guerrero holds firm to the Spring Training cutoff, though it’s not uncommon for players to continue negotiations past self-imposed deadlines if they feel progress is being made.

Davidi writes that the $340MM offer which the Jays made is believed to have predated Soto’s eye-popping $765MM contract. That may simply be an outlier, but it’s natural that Guerrero — arguably the top free agent in next year’s class — would aim high after Soto shattered all contractual precedents. Guerrero is set for what’ll be the highest salary for any arbitration-eligible player this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him at $29.6MM. Teams and players will exchange filing figures tomorrow afternoon. That could spur the Jays and Guerrero to work on a one-year settlement to avoid going to a hearing. That would not prevent them from continuing discussions on a long-term deal at a later date.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Sets Spring Training Deadline For Extension Talks With Blue Jays

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is eligible for free agency after the 2025 season, and his future is undoubtedly the biggest looming question hanging over the Blue Jays as they prepare for what might be their final year of control over the All-Star first baseman.  GM Ross Atkins said at season’s end that the Jays would be looking to start extension talks this winter, and Guerrero himself confirmed these negotiations were taking place in a recent interview with Abriendo Sports (hat tip to Z101’s Hector Gomez and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith).

Guerrero reiterated that he has interest in staying in Toronto, and is “ready to go” in signing an extension if the Jays meet his asking price.  However, “what they offered me is not even close to what I’m looking for,” Guerrero said, noting that Toronto’s most recent offer was worth around $340MM.  Notably, this offer came after Juan Soto signed his 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets, and completely reset the market for superstar players.

Only limited time may be available to close the gap that exists between the two sides, as Guerrero said that he has let the front office know that he will cease negotiations after the first full day of the Jays’ Spring Training camp.   It is a bit of an unusual self-imposed deadline date, as most players set Opening Day as their unofficial endpoint for reaching an extension.  Obviously an extension can happen at any point before a player enters free agency, yet players generally prefer to keep focused only on baseball once the season begins, and thus contract talks are usually limited to the offseason.

It isn’t uncommon for some deals, of course, to be announced a few days or weeks into April, if talks are on the proverbial five-yard line by Opening Day and just a few final details needed to be confirmed.  Likewise, Guerrero probably isn’t going to end all talks in late February if he and the Jays have worked out most aspects of a very lucrative (and therefore rather complex) extension.  That said, reducing the remaining negotiation window to roughly two months is a pretty public way of increasing the pressure on Toronto’s front office.

This is purely speculation on my part, but the earlier “deadline” could also be Guerrero’s way of leaving the door open for a trade.  If an extension can’t be worked out before Spring Training properly begins and the Blue Jays feel Guerrero won’t re-sign next winter, the Jays could pivot and try to trade Guerrero for some longer-term assets prior to Opening Day.  To be clear, if Toronto spends the rest of its offseason adding talent to take another run at contention in 2025, it would seem far more likely that the Jays just keep Guerrero to keep their roster as strong as possible in what might be something of a final run for the Guerrero/Bo Bichette core.

The length of the $340MM offer wasn’t specified, but a ten-year, $340MM pact produces “only” an average annual value of $34MM per season, which ranks tied for the 15th-highest AAV in baseball history.  Nine years and $340MM is a $37.77MM AAV that ranks as the seventh-highest all-time, topped only by the most recent deals signed by Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Judge.  An eight-year, $340MM pact equals $42.5MM in AAV, putting Guerrero behind only Soto, Ohtani, Scherzer, and Verlander.

Guerrero doesn’t turn 26 until March, however, so an eight-year deal only runs through his age-33 season.  Even a ten-year deal brings Guerrero through just his age-35 campaign, and a longer-term deal in the $340MM range only lowers the AAV to an even greater extent.  It isn’t necessarily clear what Guerrero is looking for in terms of contract length, but in terms of pure dollars, it is easy to see why he would balk at an offer worth slightly more than half of what Soto (who is also entering his age-26 season) received from New York.

From the Blue Jays’ perspective, the gap in production between Soto and Guerrero would justify a gap in earnings, though it isn’t quite as large a divide as one might imagine.  Soto’s huge 2024 campaign with the Yankees boosted his asking price through the ceiling, but looking just at his first six MLB seasons, Soto hit .284/.421/.524 with 160 home runs in 3375 plate appearances, with a 154 wRC+ and 28.2 fWAR.

Through his first six MLB seasons, Guerrero has hit .288/.363/.500 in 3540 PA, with the exact same total of 160 homers, and a 137 wRC+ and 17 fWAR.  For both players, their value is largely derived from their bat, as public defensive and baserunning metrics paint Guerrero and Soto as well below average in both departments.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently discussed what it might take to extend Guerrero, and floated the idea of a contract of somewhere between $500MM-$600MM.  Assuming no deferred money would be involved, this would make Guerrero the second-highest paid player in baseball history, behind only Soto.  “Excessive as it might sound to the average fan…keep in mind, the Jays would need to pay a premium for preventing Guerrero from testing the market.  And if they lose him, their already disgruntled fan base might revolt,” Rosenthal writes.

The latter point is another over-arching element of the Guerrero talks, as perhaps no executives in baseball are on as much of a hot seat as Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro.  While the Blue Jays came out of a rebuild to reach the playoffs in 2020, 2022, 2023, the club didn’t win even a single game during those trips to the postseason, and Toronto’s nosedive to a 74-88 record in 2024 could be a sign that the Jays’ competitive window could already be closed.

Toronto’s ardent pursuits of both Ohtani last offseason and Soto this winter indicated that ownership was prepared to go the distance in bidding on top-flight talent, though it remains to be seen if the Jays view Guerrero quite in the same tier those other two superstars.  It was just a year ago that Guerrero was coming off an underwhelming 118 wRC+ in 2023, and there were questions about whether Guerrero was even worth any kind of long-term investment.  For comparison’s sake, Soto’s “worst” full season as calculated by wRC+ was his 2019 campaign, when he posted a 143 wRC+ in 659 PA while also catching fire in the postseason to help the Nationals win the World Series.

Viewing Guerrero in relation to Soto specifically is a comp that Guerrero’s reps at the Prime Agency would likely welcome, as it keeps Guerrero even subconsciously linked to Soto’s elite salary tier.  Rafael Devers’ ten-year, $313.5MM extension with the Red Sox is also frequently mentioned as a Guerrero comp, as Devers was also entering his age-26 season.  Guerrero has some statistical edge (Devers had a 123 wRC+ in his first six seasons prior to his extension) and thus an argument to earn more than Devers got from Boston, but perhaps the Blue Jays’ $340MM-ish number reflects the idea of Guerrero as only slightly better than Devers.

It could also be, of course, that the Jays are willing to pay well above $340MM, but offered that figure as an early gauge on Guerrero’s asking price in the wake of Soto’s contract.  Plenty of time still exists for the two sides to eventually match up on an acceptable extension, and it could be that Guerrero backs off his early-spring deadline if some progress has been made, even if a new deal isn’t exactly imminent.

Ross Atkins Will Return As Blue Jays’ General Manager In 2025

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11:00am: Atkins revealed during his own media availability that bench coach and offensive coordinator Don Mattingly will no longer oversee the team’s offense; he’ll fill a “more traditional” bench coach role. Between the change in Mattingly’s role and the reported firing of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez — which Atkins confirmed — the team will conduct an external search to bring in new voice to oversee the team’s offense.

10:15am: Blue Jays team president Mark Shapiro is currently meeting with the media on the heels of a season he described as a “bitter disappointment” and announced that Ross Atkins will return as the team’s general manager for the 2025 season. “There won’t be a change with Ross,” said Shapiro. (Readers can watch the live press conference via Sportsnet.) The 2024 season was Atkins’ ninth season as Toronto’s general manager after spending 14 seasons as an integral part of Cleveland’s player development department. He signed a five-year contract extension covering the 2022-26 seasons back in April of 2021.

This past season was indeed a disaster for the Jays, who finished out the season at 74-88 — last place in the American League East. The Blue Jays made a spirited run at Shohei Ohtani in free agency last offseason but added primarily complementary pieces after he signed a ten-year deal with the Dodgers. The Toronto front office inked Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodriguez to multi-year contracts, also adding veterans Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier on one-year deals (Kiermaier’s second one-year pact with the Jays).

Depth proved to be an Achilles heel for the Jays as injuries mounted. Bo Bichette endured multiple IL stints and was limited to half a season’s worth of uncharacteristically feeble production at the plate. Alek Manoah underwent UCL surgery. Closer Jordan Romano pitched just 13 2/3 rough innings before undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery. Top prospects Orelvis Martinez (PED suspension) and Ricky Tiedemann (Tommy John surgery) had lost seasons. Meanwhile, key veterans like Kiermaier, George Springer, Danny Jansen, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza and others turned in performances that were not commensurate with their prior standards. The Jays turned to a host of in-house stopgaps but, particularly in the bullpen, were unable to piece together a serviceable performance.

The end result saw Jansen, Kiner-Falefa, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia and Nate Pearson all traded away in deadline swaps for younger talent. The Jays were universally praised for a strong return on Kikuchi, an impending free agent. However, that’s at best a silver lining when considering the team entered the 2024 campaign looking to build on last year’s Wild Card berth into the playoffs and was viewed as a legitimate contender in a deep AL East division.

Heading into the 2025 season, it’ll be incumbent upon Shapiro and Atkins to engineer an immediate turnaround, lest the calls for changes in leadership grow even louder. Asked about the club’s payroll outlook for the ’25 campaign, Shapiro demurred, calling it “early” to ask such a question and suggesting that next month’s GM Meetings or even December’s Winter Meetings would be a time at which he could offer a clearer answer. For now, the club’s president merely suggested he didn’t anticipate player payroll rising or decreasing in a significant manner.

If that’s indeed the case, Atkins will have his work cut out for him. The Jays entered the 2024 season with a club-record $225MM Opening Day payroll. RosterResource currently pegs them for just shy of $125MM in 2025 commitments, not including an arbitration class projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $61MM in total. Add in a slate of league-minimum players to round out the roster, and the Jays are at just over $194MM. There are some likely non-tenders in this offseason’s class of arbitration-eligible players, but the group is headlined by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his projected $29.6MM salary, with notable paydays projected for Romano ($7.75MM), Daulton Varsho ($7.7MM) and Alejandro Kirk ($4.1MM) as well.

Asked multiple times about Guerrero’s future, Shapiro generally sidestepped the question. The slugger is entering his final season of club control before potentially becoming one of the most coveted free agents in recent memory. Manager John Schneider recently touted Guerrero as a generational talent. Asked today whether he agreed with that assessment, Shapiro questioned the definition of what constitutes a generational player and suggested that it’s tough to say right now, noting that Guerrero has the “potential” to become such a player but implying that such a label can’t be placed on him this early in his career.

Atkins spoke more directly on the matter of Guerrero’s future, suggesting that ownership will provide the support to make long-term commitments to both Guerrero and Bichette. That doesn’t guarantee an extension for either player will happen, of course, and Atkins noted that it’s “difficult” to construct a contract of such magnitude for even one player — let alone two players. Still, he voiced confidence that the Jays can support long-term deals for both and still have the resources needed to build a competitive roster around what would presumably be a pair of substantial contracts.

With regard to the forthcoming offseason, Atkins spoke generally about the need to be “more aggressive” with external additions to the roster than the Blue Jays were this past offseason, specifically in the bullpen. He also called adding a power bat “low-hanging fruit” but also noted that it’s not as simple as adding a pure slugger, citing a need to look at contact ability, on-base skills, and strengths against specific pitch types.

Asked whether the aforementioned Rodriguez and Bowden Francis have pitched well enough to solidify their spots in the rotation next season, Atkins praised both pitchers for the job they did in the season’s second half. The Jays will be in the market for both depth and “impact” starting pitching, per Atkins, but with Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Rodriguez and Francis all in the fold, the GM said he feels fortunate to not feel a dire need to be in the market for a top free-agent starter.

The manner in which the Jays will pursue upgrades was left fairly open-ended. Both Atkins and Shapiro spoke favorably of the 13 young players Toronto acquired at this season’s trade deadline. Atkins acknowledged that while many of those players are viewed as potential near-term contributors, that influx of talent into the system also opens the door for potential trades involving some of those same prospects. The Blue Jays will explore both the free agent and trade markets as they look to revamp the roster, but it’s clear from both men’s comments today that the club does not plan to take any kind of step back and will endeavor to put a playoff contender on the field next year. That much has been reported at various points since the deadline, but today’s on-record commitment to such an approach from the team’s top two decision-makers is nevertheless notable.

Blue Jays Notes: Bassitt, Guerrero, Bichette

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The Blue Jays are playing out the stretch on a rough season. Toronto is well below .500 and seems headed for a last place finish, a very disappointing outcome for a team coming off consecutive playoff berths that believed they were squarely in the midst of their contention window. Toronto had little choice but to sell at the deadline once it became clear they weren’t going to come close to the postseason.

Even as they shopped veteran pieces, the front office wasn’t keen on a huge overhaul. Most of the Jays’ trades shipped off impending free agents (e.g. Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Yimi García, Trevor Richards, Danny Jansen, Kevin Kiermaier). They moved a couple role players under contract or team control beyond this season, shipping out Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Nate Pearson. Yet they never seemed close to dealing any core players whom they could keep around for 2025.

Chris Bassitt is one such veteran. The right-hander is in the second season of a three-year, $63MM free agent deal. He’s playing on an $18MM salary and will make a matching amount next year. Bassitt finished tenth in Cy Young balloting a season ago. This year’s work has been solid but not as impressive, as he carries a 4.34 ERA through 139 frames.

There was an argument for the Jays to shop Bassitt this summer, especially if they could find a taker for his entire ’25 salary. While he remains an effective pitcher, he’ll be going into his age-36 campaign on a roster that needs a lot of work next offseason. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reported five days before the deadline that the Jays had no intention of moving either Bassitt or Kevin Gausman, though. Neither pitcher found himself in any trade rumors of substance.

In an interview with Chris Rose of Jomboy Media last week (YouTube link), Bassitt said that the Toronto front office made clear early in the process that he would not be traded. “There (were) a lot of articles and a lot of people saying that I was leaving or should be leaving. They told me I wasn’t leaving,” Bassitt said. While he didn’t specify the exact time of that conversation, he added that he “knew for a while” in advance of the deadline that he wasn’t moving. Bassitt acknowledged some disappointment that he wasn’t in position to battle for a playoff spot this year, though he added that he’s optimistic about the organization’s desire to make another effort to compete in 2025.

Talented as Bassitt is, he’s only the third-most important Blue Jays player who is on track for free agency after next season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette will be two of the headlining pieces of the 2025-26 free agent class. GM Ross Atkins made clear early in deadline season that the Jays had no interest in trading either. There’s no indication they ever seriously reconsidered even as the team fell firmly out of ’24 playoff contention.

Asked by Rose whether the Jays should’ve traded or extended Guerrero this summer, Bassitt expressed some optimism that the Jays will be able to keep him around for the long haul. “I don’t know this, I don’t want to speak for him on this, but I think Vladdy wants to be a Blue Jay for the rest of his career. I don’t think he wants to leave,” the pitcher opined. “I don’t think it’s a super, super, super rush to get an extension done. They obviously didn’t trade him because they don’t want him to be in another uniform. … I think both sides want to be together. I don’t think it’s a bad relationship.”

Guerrero is playing this year on a $19.9MM salary. He should exceed $25MM and could push near $30MM for his final arbitration season. After a slow start to the season, Guerrero has been on a massive tear since the beginning of May. He’s up to a .317/.390/.552 slash with 26 home runs across 543 plate appearances. This has been Guerrero’s best year since his MVP runner-up campaign in 2021. He’s on track to get to free agency in advance of his age-27 season and could command a deal that exceeds $300MM.

Over the weekend, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote that the Jays indeed remain hopeful of working out an extension with Guerrero before he gets to free agency. Nightengale suggests there’s less optimism about an extension with Bichette, writing that the Jays could field trade offers on the shortstop during the upcoming winter if they don’t feel they’ll make progress on an extension.

This would arguably be a poor time for either a trade or an extension. Bichette has had by far the worst season of his career. He’s hitting .222/.275/.320 with only four homers through 331 trips to the plate. The two-time All-Star has had a pair of injured list stints because of right calf issues. He has been out of action for exactly a month with a notable calf strain and seems unlikely to return until some point in September.

Unlike Guerrero, Bichette has a fixed salary next year. He’ll make $16.5MM in the final season of the three-year deal he signed to buy out all his arbitration years. There’d still be ample trade interest if the Jays shopped him. The free agent shortstop class, headlined by Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim, isn’t as barren as this past winter’s was. Things fall off quickly after Kim, though, and there aren’t many everyday shortstops who seem likely to be on the trade block. Bichette arguably still carries a higher offensive ceiling than any other shortstop who could reasonably be available in either free agency or trade.

Whether that’ll result in a deal remains to be seen. Atkins said as recently as last month that the Jays are hopeful of keeping Guerrero and Bichette for the long haul. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote shortly before the trade deadline that past extension talks with both players hadn’t made much progress. Heyman suggested at the time that the Jays didn’t have a great chance of extending Bichette — aligning with Nightengale’s recent report. Even if that is the case, trading Bichette would dig another hole for a team that believes it can rebound next season. Rookie Leo Jiménez has taken over shortstop in the past month. He’s hitting .221/.307/.368 with subpar strikeout (32.1%) and walk (5.5%) rates in 34 games.

The Blue Jays Shouldn’t Be Resisting A Reset

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The 2024 season clearly hasn't gone the way the Blue Jays hoped. Expected to contend for a Wild Card spot at the very least, the Jays have instead encountered notable injuries (Jordan Romano, Alek Manoah) and seen career-worst performances from several key players (Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier). Top prospect Orelvis Martinez received an 80-game PED suspension. Very, very little has gone well in Toronto -- as evidenced by their 46-56 record and -82 run differential.

Unsurprisingly, Toronto has become a deadline seller. The front office reportedly isn't interested in any kind of large-scale rebuild, however, and is focused on primarily selling off rental assets. Reliever Yimi Garcia has already been traded to the Mariners. Starter Yusei Kikuchi and the aforementioned Turner are among the candidates to change hands. That'll bring back some modest returns in terms of prospects. It's also not sufficient for a team in Toronto's situation.

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Blue Jays Reportedly Expressing Openness To Moving Rentals

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After another tough loss in San Francisco last night, the Blue Jays enter play this evening at 41-50. They’ve dropped nine games behind the Red Sox for the American League’s final postseason spot. Only the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse record in the AL.

With less than three weeks until the deadline, time is running out for the Jays to avoid selling. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins called the next few weeks “exceptionally important” in determining the team’s direction. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.

Unsurprisingly, that looks like it’ll leave the front office to contemplate dealing short-term pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote last night that the Jays have indicated to other teams that they’re willing to move impending free agents. Feinsand suggested that Toronto is still disinterested in dealing players who are under team control beyond this season. Feinsand left open the possibility of Toronto holding onto players if they author a dramatic turnaround in the next couple weeks, but he noted that the Jays “are prepared to sell” if they don’t reverse course quickly. Including tonight, they have 16 games until the deadline.

A reluctance to trade controllable players aligns with Atkins’ prior public comments. The GM said in early June that moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — each of whom are slated for free agency at the end of next season — “just doesn’t make any sense for us.” While Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the idea of moving any other players, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette indicates the team expects to rebound in 2025.

Even if the Jays focus trade discussions on rentals, the roster could look very different in a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free agents, each of whom has a realistic chance to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the top rental starting pitchers who should be available.

Kikuchi is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The lefty set a personal high with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed an even four earned runs per nine through 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents while cutting his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Home runs have always been an issue for the veteran southpaw, particularly against right-handed hitters. Yet Kikuchi is working on a second straight season with an ERA around 4.00 with plus strikeout and walk numbers.

This is the final season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making just $10MM this year. Around $3.28MM would remain at the deadline. That should be affordable for most contenders. Kikuchi would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Jays don’t trade him. If Toronto exceeds the luxury tax threshold, they’d only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2025 draft if a qualified free agent signs elsewhere.

That’s also a potential factor for Danny Jansen, who is the top impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and trade appeal looked a lot stronger as recently as a month ago. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed power outage in the past six weeks. Jansen has gone without a homer while running a .122/.241/.162 slash since the end of May. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.

Despite the slump, the Jays should still get calls on Jansen. There aren’t likely to be many starting caliber catchers available this summer. Jansen has shown that kind of talent throughout his career, though his value has generally been undercut by a lengthy injury history. Even if he’s not currently in top form, Jansen has excellent strike zone discipline with double-digit home run power. He’s a quality receiving catcher but doesn’t have a great arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his final arbitration season.

Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are both playing on one-year free agent deals, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who could generate some interest for a bench role on a contender. The Jays would likely need to pay down most of the money to facilitate a trade of either player, though. Kiermaier remains an excellent defensive center fielder but has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with five homers over 294 trips to the plate. He is working mostly as a designated hitter with sporadic reps at the corner infield spots.

Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the final two impending free agents. García, who is playing on a $6MM salary, got out to an excellent start to the year. He fired 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a huge 34.6% strikeout rate over 27 appearances. An elbow issue sent him to the injured list in mid-June. García is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him but the Jays are hopeful that García will be ready for reinstatement this weekend.

Richards, who is making just $2.15MM in his last arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run average in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned a quarter of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this year’s 10% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. He’s best suited for a middle relief role but should have some appeal on the trade market as an affordable multi-inning arm.

Moving the bulk or all of those players could have significant financial ramifications for the organization. RosterResource estimates the organization’s luxury tax commitments just north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the team’s CBT mark closer to $250MM. Those outside projections put the team $10-13MM above this year’s $237MM base tax threshold. An organization’s competitive balance tax number is calculated at the end of the season.

If the Jays commit to selling, they could get close to or below the tax line. They should be able to offload the prorated portions of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is healthy, they could probably find a taker for what remains of his contract. Depending on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner money another team might be willing to eat, there may be a path to getting their CBT number under $237MM. That would reset the team’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor if they decided to spend back above the tax line in 2025.

Getting under the CBT marker would be much easier if the Jays were willing to go beyond the rentals. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Green are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Moving anyone from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 more of an uphill battle, of course. It doesn’t seem that’s an avenue the front office is eager to take. It remains to be seen if they’ll more seriously consider that kind of roster overhaul over the coming weeks.

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