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Will Smith

Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

By Steve Adams | November 12, 2019 at 11:08am CDT

We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.

Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs

If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.

Revenue Sharing Recipients:  Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.

For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).

—

While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).

With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.

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MLBTR Originals Anthony Rendon Gerrit Cole Jake Odorizzi Jose Abreu Josh Donaldson Madison Bumgarner Marcell Ozuna Stephen Strasburg Will Smith Zack Wheeler

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Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

By Steve Adams | November 12, 2019 at 5:50am CDT

Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

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Atlanta Braves Chicago White Sox Houston Astros MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins New York Mets San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Anthony Rendon Gerrit Cole Jake Odorizzi Josh Donaldson Madison Bumgarner Marcell Ozuna Stephen Strasburg Will Smith Zack Wheeler

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10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

By Jeff Todd | November 4, 2019 at 5:01pm CDT

It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.

This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.

This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).

Here are the ten players:

  • Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
  • Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
  • Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros
  • Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves
  • Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
  • Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals
  • Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
  • Will Smith, RP, Giants
  • Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
  • Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets

There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.

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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Houston Astros Minnesota Twins New York Mets Newsstand San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Transactions Washington Nationals Anthony Rendon Gerrit Cole Jake Odorizzi Jose Abreu Josh Donaldson Madison Bumgarner Marcell Ozuna Stephen Strasburg Will Smith Zack Wheeler

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Zaidi On Manager Search, Free Agency, Park Dimensions

By Steve Adams | October 1, 2019 at 2:56pm CDT

Farhan Zaidi’s first season as Giants president of baseball operations is in the books, and he’ll now embark on what could very well be a busier offseason than the one he navigated last year. The Giants will need to hire a replacement for longtime manager Bruce Bochy, conduct a search to add a general manager to work under Zaidi and, of course, address a roster that could lose Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith and several other free agents.

Zaidi met with the media today in a postmortem press conference, divulging that he intends to interview roughly six to eight external candidates as part of the club’s managerial search (Twitter links via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle and Maria Guardado of MLB.com). He also confirmed that both bench coach Hensley Meulens and third base coach Ron Wotus will be interviewed as potential successors to Bochy. Prior managerial experience won’t be a necessity, though Zaidi also implied that it’d be important.

As for the rest of the coaching staff, no determinations will be made until a new skipper is in place. As such, the Giants’ coaches are free to interview elsewhere should other teams come calling. As is the case with during any managerial search, it seems safe to bet that there’ll be a fair bit of turnover in the Giants’ dugout. The search for a GM to work alongside Zaidi in heading up the baseball ops department will be conducted “concurrently” with the search for a new manager, Schulman tweets.

With regard to the on-field product, the Giants stand to lose not only Bumgarner and Smith, but also left-hander Tony Watson, third baseman Pablo Sandoval, catcher Stephen Vogt and lefty Fernando Abad. The organization has interest (presumably to varying extents) in retaining each of its free agents, tweets Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, though Zaidi also anticipates that those players will want to explore the open market. There was no mention of qualifying offers, but Bumgarner stands out as a clear and obvious recipient (and rejector) of an eventual QO. Smith, too, could potentially merit consideration in that regard, given the dominant season he had as the team’s closer. Vogt has previously expressed interest in returning to the Giants, although he and the other impending free agents will surely want to see who is eventually tabbed as Bochy’s successor before making a commitment.

How aggressively Zaidi and his staff will pursue reunions with that group and potential matches with other free agents can’t be known at this point. Zaidi, Schulman tweets, voiced a willingness to deal from the farm system and to look at top-end starters, but he also stressed the importance of developing arms internally.

That’s an understandable point of emphasis not only because it’s a mantra for most clubs in the league but also because the Giants’ young arms didn’t perform well in 2019; each of Tyler Beede, Dereck Rodriguez, Shaun Anderson, Logan Webb, Conner Menez and Andrew Suarez struggled in auditions in the MLB rotation this year. Rodriguez and Suarez looked like potential long-term fits when they had unexpectedly strong seasons in 2018, making this year’s steps backward all the more discouraging.

That group, presumably, will have a chance at factoring into next year’s pitching staff, though it seems clear that some winter additions are in the offing. Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto are the only returning veterans, which should leave the Giants with ample room to supplement the rotation either via trade or free agency.

Augmenting the lineup will also be a point of focus, per Zaidi, who unsurprisingly indicated that adding power to the lineup will be a priority (Twitter link via Schulman). The Giants’ 167 home runs ranked 26th among 30 MLB clubs in 2019, and their .153 isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) was tied with the White Sox for third-worst in all of baseball. Alex Dickerson, acquired in a minor trade with the Padres in June, and Mike Yastrzemski, acquired from the Orioles in a minor Spring Training swap, were the team’s most productive hitters in 2019. Both are already 29 years old without any sort of sustained big league track record.

San Francisco carried a payroll north of $186MM in 2019 but only has $109MM in guaranteed money on the books for next season, which should further allow Zaidi to be creative to the extent he deems appropriate. The Giants’ only arbitration-eligible players are Kevin Pillar, Donovan Solano, Kyle Barraclough and Dickerson, so the payroll shouldn’t rise too much even when factoring in arbitration raises (particularly since that group contains some potential non-tender candidates).

While it seems like there’ll be money to play with, it’s also worth recalling that last week’s comments from Giants CEO Larry Baer didn’t exactly sound like a portent for aggressive offseason spending. In discussing the Giants’ 2010-14 run of dominance, Baer spoke of how the club relied on free agency as a complementary means of bolstering a roster that had largely consisted of homegrown pieces; the same, he noted, was true of Zaidi’s teams in Oakland and in Los Angeles. There’s little reason for the organization to tip its hand right now even if a strong run at Bumgarner or other free agents is on the docket, but there’s been no emphatic declaration to this point, either.

Beyond the innumerable personnel decisions the Giants will consider in the coming months, there’s been plenty of talk about changes to the dimensions of Oracle Park. While no final outcome was announced, Zaidi confirmed today that the organization has “made a lot of progress on designs that would have [the bullpens] move out to the outfield,” tweets Kerry Crowley of the San Jose Mercury News. Exact alterations aren’t yet determined, but Baer indicated last week that the club isn’t looking to turn Oracle Park into a hitter-friendly setting.

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San Francisco Giants Farhan Zaidi Fernando Abad Hensley Meulens Madison Bumgarner Pablo Sandoval Ron Wotus Stephen Vogt Tony Watson Will Smith

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Details On The Twins’ Trade Deadline Talks

By Mark Polishuk | August 1, 2019 at 5:20pm CDT

Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo represented the sum total of the Twins’ midseason additions as the club tries to hold its lead atop the AL Central.  While Dyson and Romo address needs in the bullpen, Minnesota was also very aggressive in looking for starting pitching, though ultimately came up short in reinforcing the rotation.

Rival teams continually asked the Twins about top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, with the Mets among the multiple clubs who asking for both youngsters.  New York wanted both Lewis and Kiriloff in discussions about Noah Syndergaard, and if premium minor league talent wasn’t available for the ace, the Mets were also focused on adding Major League players, to the point of asking Minnesota about Byron Buxton in a possible Syndergaard deal.

Lewis and Kirilloff were also on the mind of the Blue Jays’ front office, as Toronto was looking for either of the prospects in exchange for Marcus Stroman.  Minnesota turned down this initial request, and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that the Jays never called back with any other offers before trading Stroman to the Mets.  This would seem to indicate that the Jays were only interested in Lewis and Kirilloff specifically, though Hayes writes that “the Twins were disappointed when Toronto didn’t give them a chance to match an offer they believed they could have outdone.”

Beyond the prospects, Hayes tweeted that Luis Arraez was “everyone’s favorite ask” amongst teams who were offering rental players to Minnesota.  Arraez has been a revelation for the Twins over his first 43 Major League games, as the rookie is hitting .349/.422/.445 over 166 plate appearances.  Arraez has long boasted strong averages and on-base numbers in the minors, and while regression is inevitable, his .361 xwOBA isn’t far off his .388 wOBA.  With this much potential, it isn’t hard to see why the Twins were reluctant to part with a 22-year-old, multi-positional talent for only a rental player (or potentially anyone).

Hayes reports that the Twins were considering both Robbie Ray and Mike Minor, though concerns about Ray’s durability and Minor’s July struggles diminished the interest.  On the relief front, the Twins also had interest in Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez.

“It was one of the most unique trade deadlines I’ve ever experienced,” Twins GM Thad Levine told Hayes and other reporters.  “One error I made was assuming that early in the trade cycle that the leverage was towards the seller.  I assumed that there was going to be a little bit of a shift of that see-saw back to the buyer as we got closer to the deadline. I’m not sure we ever saw the shift in the see-saw. The sellers felt pretty emboldened. They set the prices high, which is very normal in a trade deadline. But I’m not sure they moved off of those high asks at any point, and as a result, there were just a finite number of players that meaningfully changed the fortunes of playoff-contending teams.”

Early talks with the Giants involving multiple players (including Dyson, Madison Bumgarner, and Will Smith) did result in the late Dyson trade.  Minnesota and San Francisco re-engaged in talks just 45 minutes before the 3pm CT deadline, medicals on the four players in the deal were exchanged at 2:50pm, and the trade was finalized with just five minutes to spare.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins New York Mets Pittsburgh Pirates San Francisco Giants Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Alex Kirilloff Byron Buxton Felipe Vazquez Luis Arraez Marcus Stroman Mike Minor Noah Syndergaard Robbie Ray Royce Lewis Sam Dyson Will Smith

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Yankees, Astros Pursuing Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler

By Connor Byrne | July 31, 2019 at 12:33pm CDT

The Yankees and Astros, two American League superpowers, continue their pursuit of high-profile starting pitchers. Both teams are in on Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets righty Zack Wheeler, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The Astros are also “focused” on Diamondbacks southpaw Robbie Ray, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Ray has been on the Yankees’ radar of late, too.

The Astros and Yankees are among the teams on Bumgarner’s limited no-trade list, but that doesn’t mean the pending free agent would block a deal to either club. Of course, it’s not a sure thing the playoff-contending Giants will even move Bumgarner, a franchise icon, by today’s deadline. They’ve been telling teams that they plan to keep him and closer Will Smith, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

This is the second time this week the Astros have been prominently connected to Bumgarner and Wheeler. As is the case with Bumgarner, Wheeler’s a 29-year-old soon-to-be free agent. While Wheeler may be the top trade candidate in baseball, the Mets aren’t guaranteed to part with him. They’ve made something of a charge up the standings of late, and seem prepared to retain Wheeler if they don’t get the type of return they’re seeking for the flamethrower. And whether the Mets would even trade Wheeler to the hated Yankees is also in question.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Houston Astros New York Mets New York Yankees San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner Robbie Ray Will Smith Zack Wheeler

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Latest On Red Sox Bullpen Pursuits

By Connor Byrne | July 31, 2019 at 11:25am CDT

The Red Sox may not be able to land Mets closer Edwin Diaz by the trade deadline, so they’re turning their attention to other relievers on the market. San Francisco closer Will Smith is the reliever who has “most intrigued” the Red Sox over the past week, Sean McAdam of BostonSportsJournal.com tweets. The Red Sox have also shown interest in Diamondbacks left-hander Andrew Chafin, per McAdam, and Blue Jays right-hander Daniel Hudson, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link).

Smith would clearly give the Red Sox the stable game-ending option they’ve lacked this year, but it doesn’t appear the team will be able to swing a deal for him. They’ve found the Giants’ asking price for Smith to be prohibitive, McAdam reports. Smith isn’t signed past this season – one of the reasons the Red Sox aren’t aggressively pursuing him – though it’s no surprise the Giants want a haul back for him. They’re still in playoff contention, for one, and Smith’s eminently affordable ($4.225MM) and highly effective. The 30-year-old has logged a 2.72 ERA/2.77 FIP with 12.82 K/9 and 2.14 BB/9 in 46 1/3 innings this season. He has also converted 26 of 28 save opportunities.

Meanwhile, either Chafin or Hudson could help improve the Red Sox’s setup situation. This is the latest in a growing line of solid seasons for the 29-year-old Chafin, who has pitched to a 4.17 ERA/3.69 FIP with 11.05 K/9 and 3.19 BB/9 across 36 2/3 frames. He also ranks second among all relievers in infield fly rate (24.2 percent), has held left-handed batters to a subpar .272 weighted on-base average, earns a relatively meager salary ($1.945MM) and comes with another year of arbitration control. Unsurprisingly, Chafin’s drawing plenty of interest from around the league – not just Boston – Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.

Hudson, 32, would be the easiest reliever in this trio to acquire. He’s had a productive year, though peripherals don’t quite back up his above-average run prevention, and would be a pure rental for his next team. Nevertheless, Hudson’s the cheapest of the group ($1.5MM salary) and has been popular in the rumor mill leading up to the deadline. The hard-throwing journeyman has notched a 3.00 ERA/4.21 FIP with 9.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over 48 innings. Righties have mustered a weak .276 wOBA off him.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays Andrew Chafin Daniel Hudson Will Smith

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Latest On Giants’ Deadline Plans For Bumgarner, Other Trade Candidates

By Jeff Todd | July 19, 2019 at 1:52pm CDT

It was reported just days ago that the Giants were still planning to sell despite a run of success that has yet to abate. That’s not quite how president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi characterized things, though he certainly left the door wide open to dealing.

While the postseason picture remains about the same now — the Giants don’t have a prayer in the division but are up to one game under .500 and 2.5 games out of Wild Card position — there are increasing indications that the San Francisco organization may seriously consider holding onto its best trade chips. At the very least, it seems the club is going to give its roster as much time as possible to position itself.

There seems to be a bit of a growing sense around the game that the Giants may well hold off on a sell-off. A rival exec says as much to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), while Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports that top Giants trade candidates Will Smith and Madison Bumgarner simply aren’t available at this point in time. Presumably, the same holds true for all or most of the team’s many other trade candidates, no shortage of whom featured on MLBTR’s latest ranking.

If that’s the case, it seems a sensible initial move for a front office group that is in its first season at the helm. It would be exceedingly difficult to justify sell-side decisions at this immediate juncture when it’s still not known exactly how the situation will look at the deadline. Aggressive, early action is worth considering when you’re certain of the approach, but there’s a reason teams have typically waited until just before the deadline (and even beyond, back when August trades were allowed under certain circumstances) to make moves that can’t be taken back.

Hitting the pause button doesn’t necessarily mean the Giants won’t end up operating on the sell side. There are many arguments in favor of such an approach, as we touched upon in presenting our recent poll on the Giants’ deadline approach. The responses to the poll were interesting: about three of four MLBTR readers urged the Giants to sell. Less than one in ten advocated a buying approach, with most of the optimists preferring the team mostly stand pat.

It’s interesting to wonder whether some kind of blended approach could be pursued if the club has positioned itself in or near Wild Card position by the end of the month. One possibility would be to hang onto Bumgarner, a rightful legend of the organization, with the idea of issuing him a qualifying offer at season’s end (or even extending him). It’s far from clear that the organization will recoup truly significant prospects for the lefty, with nagging questions about just how good a pitcher he really is at this stage of his career and only months of team control remaining. Hanging onto him might represent a justifiable middle ground. Meanwhile, the team could explore deals in which it would recoup youthful talent at or near the majors for some of its veteran hurlers (this trade might be something of a model). The Giants could even contemplate some additions of controllable talent if they see good value and a chance to fill an anticipated need.

For understandable reasons, Bumgarner continues to draw much of the attention. The undeniable allure of his historically exceptional postseason work is tough to ignore or write off. Thirty on August 1st, Bumgarner probably will never return to his peak levels of performance. But it’s also important to note that he has turned things up a notch as the season has gone along. He’s currently sitting at over 92 mph with his average heater and carries a 12.0% swinging-strike rate that’s second-highest in his career. Statcast does suggest some regression could be in store based upon the volume of hard contact Bumgarner has surrendered, but ERA estimators generally see him as a quality mid-rotation starter (3.69 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA).

It’s no surprise that plenty of clear contenders are contemplating a move for Bumgarner. There has been a steady stream of chatter on him for some time. There are a few recent market hints, though none seem particularly strong. The Twins and (less likely) Red Sox may have been eyeing MadBum when they scouted his outing last night, Jon Morosi of MLB.com suggests (Twitter links), though it’s awfully difficult to know what the presence of a scout means when the contest in question features so many possible trade candidates. The Yankees are primarily looking elsewhere but could still enter the picture, Martino suggests.

As for Bumgarner himself, his feelings probably aren’t surprising. Following a gutsy nine-inning performance last night, the surly southpaw told reporters including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area that his team is “making a push” for the postseason. Do the trade rumors bother MadBum? “I don’t give a …” well, you know. He continued: “I’m here to win games for this team, and that’s what we’re doing.”

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San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner Will Smith

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Trade Candidates: Top 5 Relievers By K/BB Ratio

By Connor Byrne | July 17, 2019 at 6:59pm CDT

On Tuesday, with help from the top 60 trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week, we took a look at the movable starters who have outpaced the rest of the pack in K/BB ratio this season. We’ll do the same here with qualified relievers in advance of the July 31 trade deadline…

Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 7:33

  • Dyson’s just two years removed from being left for dead by the Rangers, who traded him to the Giants for a meager package in 2017. The 31-year-old has revived his career in San Francisco, though, and will garner a far better return this time if the Giants move him this month. Dyson has fanned 8.61 per nine innings against just 1.17 walks, induced grounders at a 55.6 percent clip and notched a nearly identical 2.74 ERA/2.73 FIP in 46 innings. Dyson, who’s on a $5MM salary, also comes with another year of arbitration eligibility.

Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres: K/BB ratio: 7.11

  • Yates is going to be hard to pry out of San Diego. Multiple reports have indicated the Padres are understandably seeking a king’s ransom in return for the 32-year-old. Since the Padres claimed Yates off waivers from the Angels in April 2017, he has evolved into one of the game’s premier relievers. Yates owns a jaw-dropping 1.10 ERA/1.28 FIP with 14.05 K/9 against 1.98 BB/9 over 41 innings this season, and has made good on 30 of 32 save opportunities. Adding to Yates’ appeal, he’s making an affordable sum ($3,062,500) and under arbitration control for another season.

Will Smith, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 6.22

  • There has been widespread interest in Smith, who – along with Dyson – has helped form an imposing late-game setup in San Francisco. Smith has recorded a 2.75 ERA/2.70 FIP with 12.81 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 in 39 1/3 frames, during which he has converted 24 saves on 26 opportunities. Although Smith’s making a reasonable $4.225MM this season, the 30-year-old would be a rental for another team, as he’s due to hit free agency over the winter. Having charged back into the NL wild-card race of late, the Giants might not be locks to move Smith (or their other vets) on paper. However, they’re reportedly planning to sell in the next two weeks despite their recent hot streak. Smith figures to be in another uniform soon, then.

Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays: K/BB ratio: 5.89

  • The 28-year-old Giles has dealt with an elbow issue since last weekend, but indications are it isn’t serious. If true, he should hold plenty of value around the deadline. Not only does he make a fair salary ($6.3MM) and come with another season of arbitration control, but the hard-throwing Giles is enjoying a career campaign. The former Phillie and Astro has registered a stunning 1.45 ERA/1.50 FIP with 15.39 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9 in 31 innings. Giles also ranks second among all relievers in swinging-strike percentage (20.4), and has blown just one save in 14 chances.

Tony Watson, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 5.8

  • With three Giants on this list, it’s no wonder president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi seems inclined to sell this month in lieu of taking what would likely be a futile run at a wild-card spot. Plus, at 34, Watson’s not exactly a long-term piece for the club. While Watson, who’s making $3.5MM this season, does have a player option for 2020, it’s likely he’ll decline the $2.5MM guarantee in favor of a trip to free agency over the winter. After all, Watson has logged a 3.03 ERA with 6.75 K/9, 1.16 BB/9 and a career-high 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate across 38 2/3 innings this year. On the other hand, Watson’s strikeout rate is a personal low, he’s allowing more home runs than ever (1.4 per nine) and his 4.35 FIP and 4.42 xFIP aren’t the marks of a late-game force. He’s also having an unexpected amount of trouble against lefties, who have lit him up for a .341/.356/.477 line in 2019. There’s a strong argument for the Giants to sell high on Watson.
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Giants Reportedly Still Plan To Sell Despite Recent Hot Streak

By Steve Adams | July 17, 2019 at 1:40pm CDT

The Giants have won eight of their past 10 games and are suddenly within three games of an NL Wild Card spot, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest 10 Degrees column that the team still plans to operate as a seller. The only real uncertainty surrounding team legend Madison Bumgarner, per the report, is where he’ll land.

“San Francisco’s recent success isn’t throwing a wrench in the team’s trade-Bumgarner-and-all-the-relievers plan,” writes Passan. The Giants, of course, have multiple intriguing bullpen pieces to market beyond Bumgarner. Will Smith is the top rental reliever available, while Sam Dyson is intriguing as a player who is both performing well and controlled through 2020. Southpaw Tony Watson should also draw interest, although as MLBTR detailed earlier this season, his contract isn’t nearly as affordable as some might think due to the large number of incentives he’s reached. He’s already at $8.5MM, and if Watson pitches in 14 more games this year, his salary will check in at a hefty $10.5MM.

Interestingly, at just about the same time Passan’s report hit the wire, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was presenting a less declarative stance — at least with the public. In an appearance on KNBR radio this morning (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area), Zaidi suggested that he doesn’t take opportunities at the postseason for granted. “Every pennant race and every opportunity you have to get to the playoffs has a ton of value,” said Zaidi. “It has a ton of value to the fans and the organization, and we don’t take that lightly.”

Obviously, it behooves any baseball operations head to take such a tone when his club is even on the periphery of contending. The “never say never” adage probably applies to the current iteration of the Giants. For instance, it’s difficult to imagine them selling in an extreme scenario where they rattle off another 10 or 11 consecutive victories to surge past the .500 mark and into Wild Card position.

However, the outlook for a playoff berth still isn’t favorable. The Giants need to overtake five teams and then hold that ground. Even then, they’d be faced with a one-game playoff against a second Wild Card winner that is likely not quite as patched together as the San Francisco club. There’d be no guarantee of aligning their rotation so that Bumgarner could start a theoretical Wild Card game, either, as the Giants would merely need to focus on winning every game in a tightly contested race.

While it’s conceptually possible for the Giants to hold onto Bumgarner but still trade other pieces, that scenario feels like a stretch. It’s true that Bumgarner would be a lock to turn down a qualifying offer, thus assuring the Giants of at least a compensatory draft pick. That’s less true of Smith, though, and not even in the realm of possibility for Watson. Keeping Bumgarner but trading Smith and Watson wouldn’t be a wholehearted pursuit of a postseason bid, and keeping all their chips only to collapse in August represents a worst-case scenario — a massive missed opportunity to bolster an ailing farm system.

An August collapse is hardly out of the question either. Red-hot Alex Dickerson is riding a .455 BABIP since joining the Giants — a pace he cannot possibly sustain. In fact, over their current 10-3 stretch, the Giants have seven regulars whose average on balls in play is north of .350 — and that doesn’t even count Evan Longoria, who erupted for six home runs in 11 games after previously hitting seven in 72 contests before landing on the injured list.

It seems clear that the Giants have a better roster now than in April, when they were cycling through the likes of Connor Joe, Michael Reed, Mac Williamson and others in the outfield and receiving career-worst levels of performance from veterans Gerardo Parra and Yangervis Solarte. At the same time, the Giants would probably need another 39 wins to have a puncher’s chance at the second NL Wild Card spot, as that’d give them the same 85-win total with which the Twins sneaked into a one-game showdown in 2017. Reaching that level would mean a .582 winning percentage from here on out — a pace that only the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Dodgers and Braves have managed thus far.

The Giants would need this iteration of the club to play like a top-six team in all of baseball for a total period of three months in order to make a playoff run seem plausible, and it’s not only possible but likely that they’d need even more than that hypothetical total of 85 victories to actually land in the Wild Card game. Viewed through that lens, it’s not hard to see why the team isn’t rushing to change course after a two-week hot streak against mostly mediocre teams — even if it’s a bitter pill for fans to swallow. Zaidi’s comments do leave the door cracked in the case of another two weeks of .600-or-better play, and probably signify that deals won’t come early, but they surely do not signify a committed change to the club’s sell-side trajectory.

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