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Madison Bumgarner

Wheeler, Vazquez, Bumgarner, Minor All Held At Deadline

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Though deals can and will still trickle in after the formal end of the MLB summer trade period, there are specific reports indicating that several top trade candidates will not be changing hands.

Yankees, Astros Pursuing Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler

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The Yankees and Astros, two American League superpowers, continue their pursuit of high-profile starting pitchers. Both teams are in on Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets righty Zack Wheeler, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The Astros are also “focused” on Diamondbacks southpaw Robbie Ray, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Ray has been on the Yankees’ radar of late, too.

The Astros and Yankees are among the teams on Bumgarner’s limited no-trade list, but that doesn’t mean the pending free agent would block a deal to either club. Of course, it’s not a sure thing the playoff-contending Giants will even move Bumgarner, a franchise icon, by today’s deadline. They’ve been telling teams that they plan to keep him and closer Will Smith, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

This is the second time this week the Astros have been prominently connected to Bumgarner and Wheeler. As is the case with Bumgarner, Wheeler’s a 29-year-old soon-to-be free agent. While Wheeler may be the top trade candidate in baseball, the Mets aren’t guaranteed to part with him. They’ve made something of a charge up the standings of late, and seem prepared to retain Wheeler if they don’t get the type of return they’re seeking for the flamethrower. And whether the Mets would even trade Wheeler to the hated Yankees is also in question.

Pitching Rumors: Reds, Bauer, Yanks, Phils, MadBum, Greene, Fish, Nats

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The Reds just agreed to acquire right-hander Trevor Bauer from the Indians on Tuesday evening. Could the Reds now turn around and flip Bauer by Wednesday’s trade deadline? Not likely, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Meanwhile, two of Bauer’s new Cincinnati rotation mates – Alex Wood and the previously reported Tanner Roark – have drawn interest from the Phillies. Philly has “taken a very close look at” Wood, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Wood finally just made his season debut Sunday after months of back troubles, but the non-contending Reds could now attempt to get what they can for the pending free agent. The 28-year-old Wood, who’s on a $9.65MM salary, posted quality production with the Braves and Dodgers from 2013-18.

A smorgasbord of other pitcher-related rumors…

  • Despite their recent run of excellence, the Giants are fielding calls and “engaging in negotiations” for starter Madison Bumgarner and reliever Will Smith, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The Astros are reportedly among the teams chasing Bumgarner, but Smith is the more likely of the two to find himself in a new uniform by Wednesday, Schulman suggests. Although he’s a pending free agent, it’s likely Smith would bring back a significant return. He’s affordable ($4.225MM salary) and enjoying a marvelous season as the Giants’ closer.
  • Back to Bauer, who was reportedly one of the Yankees’ preferred targets in their search for starting help. That may have been overblown, though, as the Yankees and Indians didn’t engage in “serious talks” over Bauer, Andy Martino of SNY relays.
  • The asking price for Tigers closer Shane Greene is “far more reasonable” than the requests for other high-end relievers around the league, Feinsand tweets. Feinsand points to the Pirates’ Felipe Vazquez, the Reds’ Raisel Iglesias, the Mets’ Edwin Diaz and the Padres’ Kirby Yates as relievers who would be much harder to acquire, which isn’t surprising.
  • Reliever Nick Anderson is among Marlins hurlers garnering interest, though he’ll be difficult to pry loose, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes. As a 29-year-old rookie, the hard-throwing Anderson has put up a 3.92 ERA with a much better 2.73 FIP in 43 2/3 frames this season. While Anderson has only induced ground balls at a 27.3 percent clip, he has helped offset that by racking up a prodigious 14.2 strikeouts against 3.3 walks per nine. Adding to his value, Anderson’s on a league-minimum salary and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2021 season.
  • The Giants and Nationals “have discussed” southpaw Drew Pomeranz, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Pomeranz, whom the Giants recently demoted to their bullpen amid a rough season, has also been drawing interest from elsewhere in recent days.

Astros, Giants “Engaged” In Talks On Madison Bumgarner

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The Astros and Giants are “engaged” in discussions regarding San Francisco lefty Madison Bumgarner, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). Long considered a major rental starter for this summer’s trade market, Bumgarner’s availability has increasingly come in question as the Giants have unexpectedly risen in the standings.

While Brown cautions that there’s no indication as to the seriousness of the discussions, it seems notable that there’s dialogue at all. Surely, these teams have plenty of other doors to knock upon if Bumgarner is completely off limits. But it appears he’s still alive in talks — to some unknown extent, at least.

The Houston organization is one of the game’s more obvious buyers of starting pitching. It’s hard to imagine that the team won’t come away with at least one new rotation piece before the dust settles tomorrow. While longer-term assets are preferable, particularly given the upcoming openings in the Houston staff beyond the current campaign, it seems the ’Stros are open to all possibilities.

Bumgarner is one of several hurlers that have long been on the Astros’ radar. The club is still exploring multiple targets. Reports earlier today pegged it the favorite to land Zack Wheeler from the Mets — the other top rental starter to feature in trade chatter this summer. Controllable arms such as Matt Boyd and Robbie Ray have also been connected to Houston.

Giants Less Likely To Trade Bumgarner, Could Be Deadline Buyers

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9:41pm: It “does not appear” the Giants are targeting Boyd, Feinsand tweets. The San Francisco scout who watched Boyd’s start was on hand to advance scout the Phillies, whom the Giants play seven times from July 30 to Aug. 11, per Feinsand.

6:37pm: Once seen as one of the likeliest players to be moved prior to the July 31 deadline, Madison Bumgarner may now stay put entirely since the Giants’ improbable 17-4 record over their last 21 games has put the club firmly back into the NL wild card race.

Conflicting reports on Bumgarner’s status come from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman.  Feinsand heard from a source earlier today that “it’s all but certain” the Giants would hang onto Bumgarner through the trade deadline, while Schulman heard from a source of his own that no firm decision has been made by the front office about Bumgarner’s status, and that reports stating otherwise are “inaccurate.”

Quite a bit still seems to be in flux in the Bay Area, as if nothing else, the Giants certainly don’t seem to be the full-fledged deadline sellers that they appeared to be just a few weeks.  In fact, Feinsand writes that the Giants could even look to start adding players if the team has a successful series against the Padres over the weekend.  To this end, San Francisco “had a high-level scout” watching the most recent start of Tigers left-hander Matt Boyd, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets.

Bumgarner’s recent form has been a major factor in the Giants’ hot streak, as the southpaw has a 2.00 ERA and 41 strikeouts against just six walks over his last six starts (36 innings).  To be clear, the odds are still against San Francisco’s chances at reaching the postseason, and with Bumgarner’s value perhaps at a peak, there is a definite argument to be made that trading Bumgarner for a large haul of prospects is the wiser long-term move for a Giants team that is short on minor league depth.  On the other hand, trading Bumgarner now would also be a strongly unpopular move amongst both the players and the fanbase, who have all been understandably energized by this 21-game surge.

It’s not surprising that the Giants front office is trying to stay as flexible as possible in weighing deals of Bumgarner, Will Smith, Tony Watson, and other major trade chips.  There’s little point in declaring oneself as a deadline buyer now, when a four-game losing streak would put San Francisco right back into sell mode.  As Schulman noted in follow-up tweets, the Giants could also look to deal from their bullpen surplus for a player who could help them win now.  This is less likely to be a rental player, but perhaps someone like Boyd, who is controlled through the 2022 season.

Yankees Rumors: Bauer, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Wheeler

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The Yankees and Twins, two American League powers, staged a memorable three-game battle in Minnesota this week. This round went to the Yankees, who took two of three in an offense-driven set that saw the Bombers live up to their name in outscoring the Twins 30-27.

While the Yankees are now a major league-best 66-35, they’re surely not thrilled with the way their somewhat maligned pitching staff performed against the high-powered Twins. Starters C.C. Sabathia, Domingo German and J.A. Happ were among Yankees hurlers who took beatings, which could intensify the club’s efforts to improve its rotation before the July 31 trade deadline. That remains general manager Brian Cashman’s primary focus, according to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

Over the past several weeks, the Yankees have been connected to just about every top starter potentially available – including the Indians’ Trevor Bauer, the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner, and the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler.

Bauer is near the top of the Yankees’ wish list, per Hoch, who reports they “would love” to see Cleveland make him available. Indians general manager Mike Chernoff seemingly hasn’t closed the door on a Bauer trade, but parting with him would be an unexpected move from a Tribe team that has overcome a difficult start to climb into playoff position. The Indians are 59-42, two games up on the AL’s No. 1 wild-card spot and just two back of the Twins, thanks in part to Bauer. The 28-year-old has racked up a major league-high 152 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA/4.19 FIP pitching with 10.58 K/9 against 3.49 BB/9.

Like Bauer, Bumgarner’s perhaps an indispensable piece to a team that has emerged as a playoff hopeful. Bumgarner looked like a surefire trade candidate all season until the red-hot Giants won 17 of 21 in recent weeks. They’re currently 52-51 and three back of a wild card. The future of Bumgarner, a Giants icon, looks much more up in the air as a result. Regardless, it doesn’t seem as if Bumgarner – who has the Yankees on his limited no-trade list – is New York’s preferred choice. “Yankees people are said to be less enthused with” Bumgarner than Bauer, Hoch writes.

Meanwhile, Hoch relays that the belief is the Mets are uninterested in dealing with the crosstown rival Yankees at all, no matter what they might offer for Syndergaard or Wheeler. That would be unfortunate for the Yankees, who may be the team with the most interest in Syndergaard and would reportedly be willing to trade their premier prospect, Deivi Garcia, for him. As a soon-to-be free agent who’s about to return from a multi-week absence stemming from a shoulder injury, Wheeler has far less trade value than Syndergaard. Andy Martino of SNY reported three weeks ago that the Mets were open to sending Wheeler – then healthy – to the Bronx, but that might not be the case after all.

Even if the Yankees don’t end up with Bauer, Bumgarner, Syndergaard or Wheeler, they do seem likely to strengthen their rotation this month. After Minnesota shredded its staff this week, New York’s starters rank a middling to worse 15th in ERA, 16th in fWAR and 21st in FIP. Nobody from the group has produced truly great numbers, either. Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and German have posted low-four ERAs with aligning peripherals, while Sabathia and Happ have performed like back-end options at best.

One would be remiss to ignore that the Yankees have gone without their ace – Luis Severino – all season because of shoulder and lat injuries. While the Yankees are hopeful the star righty will return in mid to late August, which could provide an enormous boost, it’s unknown whether Severino will be able to go full bore at any point this year. Cashman suggested two weeks ago that Severino could max out at 75 pitches or even work as a reliever. Severino’s ongoing absence has thrown a massive wrench in the Yankees’ plans this year, and it could have a big hand in the club landing an outside starter.

Cards Rumors: C-Mart, Wacha, Bumgarner, Outfielders

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The Cardinals are reportedly open to trading right-hander Carlos Martinez and outfielder Tyler O’Neill by the July 31 deadline. However, they’re not “aggressively” shopping either of those two or outfielder Harrison Bader, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. On the other hand, they plan to “explore interest” in righty Michael Wacha, according to Goold.

Martinez, the most notable member of the bunch, is someone the Cardinals at least took offers for at last year’s deadline, per Goold. But because Martinez assumed the reins as their closer last month when Jordan Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery, the Redbirds aren’t as willing to consider moving him this season. The former (and possibly future) starter had been eminently effective in a full-time relief role until his past few appearances, having allowed five earned runs on seven hits and three walks across three frames in three outings this week. He now owns a 3.80 ERA, albeit with a far better 3.18 FIP, in 23 2/3 innings on this season. The hard-throwing 27-year-old has picked up seven saves on nine tries and posted 9.5 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a superb 64.5 percent groundball rate.

For St. Louis, there’s no imminent threat of losing Martinez, whom the club signed to a five-year, $51MM extension entering the 2017 campaign. He’s controllable through 2023 via two club options, and will play for a reasonable $11.5MM salary in each season through 2021.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals could watch Wacha walk in free agency during the offseason, which helps explain their amenability to parting with him now. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak did tell Goold the Cardinals don’t “see anybody on the current roster that we’re looking to move,” but Wacha has fallen from grace this season. The once-promising Wacha has logged a hideous 5.42 ERA/6.15 FIP with 7.27 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 78 innings, and has lost his spot in the Cardinals’ rotation multiple times. Considering the way Wacha has performed in 2019, his $6.35MM salary looks steep.

Thanks in part to Wacha’s struggles, the Cardinals’ starting staff has come up short of expectations thus far. Aside from Dakota Hudson, they don’t have a single hurler with double-digit starts and a sub-4.00 ERA. Even Hudson’s 3.59 ERA is accompanied by a subpar K/BB ratio and a shaky 5.13 FIP. With that in mind, Goold writes that St. Louis has “evaluated” Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner, the top rental starter who could move wind up changing teams before the deadline. However, with the Cardinals on his eight-team no-trade list, Bumgarner would be able to turn down a move to St. Louis.

The Cardinals’ outfield, meantime, may have two long-term building blocks in O’Neill and Bader. Their presences look especially important with Marcell Ozuna set to hit free agency after the season and Jose Martinez not being a viable defensive option in the grass. O’Neill, 24, has been a solid offensive producer since debuting last year, having slashed .275/.314/.502 (115 wRC+) with 14 home runs. He has, however, fanned in a massive percentage of plate appearances (39.2) and drawn walks at only a 4.5 percent clip. It’s also worth noting an impossible-to-sustain .405 bating average on balls in play has buoyed his numbers.

O’Neill won’t even reach arbitration until after 2021, while Bader’s scheduled to start the process at the conclusion of the 2020 season. The 25-year-old Bader was a 3.5-fWAR player in 2018, his first full season, owing to above-average offense and tremendous defense. While Bader remains a star in the field (8 Defensive Runs Saved, 9.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in center this season), his output with the bat has plummeted. He’s hitting a mere .207/.325/.361 (82 wRC+) with six HRs and five steals in 247 PA.

Although there are causes for concern with regards to O’Neill and Bader, it appears they’ll remain in place through the deadline. But Mozeliak informed Goold,  “We don’t know where we need to go to change our team.”  No matter what the Cardinals do change by month’s end, they’ll try to stop their playoff drought from reaching four years. Despite a lukewarm 50-47 record, they’re very much in the race, trailing a wild-card spot by half a game and the NL Central-leading Cubs by 3 1/2.

Latest On Giants’ Deadline Plans For Bumgarner, Other Trade Candidates

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It was reported just days ago that the Giants were still planning to sell despite a run of success that has yet to abate. That’s not quite how president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi characterized things, though he certainly left the door wide open to dealing.

While the postseason picture remains about the same now — the Giants don’t have a prayer in the division but are up to one game under .500 and 2.5 games out of Wild Card position — there are increasing indications that the San Francisco organization may seriously consider holding onto its best trade chips. At the very least, it seems the club is going to give its roster as much time as possible to position itself.

There seems to be a bit of a growing sense around the game that the Giants may well hold off on a sell-off. A rival exec says as much to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), while Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports that top Giants trade candidates Will Smith and Madison Bumgarner simply aren’t available at this point in time. Presumably, the same holds true for all or most of the team’s many other trade candidates, no shortage of whom featured on MLBTR’s latest ranking.

If that’s the case, it seems a sensible initial move for a front office group that is in its first season at the helm. It would be exceedingly difficult to justify sell-side decisions at this immediate juncture when it’s still not known exactly how the situation will look at the deadline. Aggressive, early action is worth considering when you’re certain of the approach, but there’s a reason teams have typically waited until just before the deadline (and even beyond, back when August trades were allowed under certain circumstances) to make moves that can’t be taken back.

Hitting the pause button doesn’t necessarily mean the Giants won’t end up operating on the sell side. There are many arguments in favor of such an approach, as we touched upon in presenting our recent poll on the Giants’ deadline approach. The responses to the poll were interesting: about three of four MLBTR readers urged the Giants to sell. Less than one in ten advocated a buying approach, with most of the optimists preferring the team mostly stand pat.

It’s interesting to wonder whether some kind of blended approach could be pursued if the club has positioned itself in or near Wild Card position by the end of the month. One possibility would be to hang onto Bumgarner, a rightful legend of the organization, with the idea of issuing him a qualifying offer at season’s end (or even extending him). It’s far from clear that the organization will recoup truly significant prospects for the lefty, with nagging questions about just how good a pitcher he really is at this stage of his career and only months of team control remaining. Hanging onto him might represent a justifiable middle ground. Meanwhile, the team could explore deals in which it would recoup youthful talent at or near the majors for some of its veteran hurlers (this trade might be something of a model). The Giants could even contemplate some additions of controllable talent if they see good value and a chance to fill an anticipated need.

For understandable reasons, Bumgarner continues to draw much of the attention. The undeniable allure of his historically exceptional postseason work is tough to ignore or write off. Thirty on August 1st, Bumgarner probably will never return to his peak levels of performance. But it’s also important to note that he has turned things up a notch as the season has gone along. He’s currently sitting at over 92 mph with his average heater and carries a 12.0% swinging-strike rate that’s second-highest in his career. Statcast does suggest some regression could be in store based upon the volume of hard contact Bumgarner has surrendered, but ERA estimators generally see him as a quality mid-rotation starter (3.69 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA).

It’s no surprise that plenty of clear contenders are contemplating a move for Bumgarner. There has been a steady stream of chatter on him for some time. There are a few recent market hints, though none seem particularly strong. The Twins and (less likely) Red Sox may have been eyeing MadBum when they scouted his outing last night, Jon Morosi of MLB.com suggests (Twitter links), though it’s awfully difficult to know what the presence of a scout means when the contest in question features so many possible trade candidates. The Yankees are primarily looking elsewhere but could still enter the picture, Martino suggests.

As for Bumgarner himself, his feelings probably aren’t surprising. Following a gutsy nine-inning performance last night, the surly southpaw told reporters including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area that his team is “making a push” for the postseason. Do the trade rumors bother MadBum? “I don’t give a …” well, you know. He continued: “I’m here to win games for this team, and that’s what we’re doing.”

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Targets

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July 19: The Phillies have also shown some level of interest in Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Given that Stroman is eminently available and arguably the most likely pitcher in baseball to be traded in the next two weeks, it’d be a surprise if Philadelphia (or any other team eyeing rotation upgrades) hadn’t reached out to Toronto to express interest.

July 18: It’s already been a busy day on the Phillies rumor mill, as we’ve heard reports connecting the team to such names as the Rangers’ Mike Minor, newly-minted free agent Drew Smyly, and (before he was dealt to the Red Sox) Andrew Cashner.  Since pitching is such a priority for the arm-needy Phils, it’s no surprise that they’ve cast a wide eye across the pitching market, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports that the Phillies have also had talks about Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner, Tigers lefty Matt Boyd, and Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke.

The Phils also looked into Homer Bailey before the Royals dealt Bailey to the Athletics last weekend, indicating that Philadelphia is looking at all ends of the pitching market.  As Salisbury notes, the Phillies aren’t keen on giving up several top prospects to land a top starter, as rival teams are still putting high price tags on their best trade chips.

Lower-level targets like Cashner, Bailey, and Smyly are therefore also being explored to help stabilize at least the back of the Phillies’ rotation.  Of course, the Phillies are arguably in need of multiple arms already, and that need will only become more severe if Jake Arrieta ends up requiring season-ending surgery.  Trading for two top-of-the-market starters is almost surely too steep a price for the Phillies, so a tactic of acquiring just one of those top-flight arms and then signing a pitcher like Smyly could be a more viable strategy if Philadelphia does intend to pick up more than one starter.

Recent comments from team president Andy MacPhail suggest that the Phillies aren’t going to give up top prospects for a rental player (if at all), and perhaps could be more inclined to pursue trades that would see the team take on salary rather than move much in the way of notable minor league talent.  This stance would seem to make it less likely that the Phillies make a strong push for Bumgarner (a free agent after the season) or Boyd, who will be relatively cost-controlled through three arbitration-eligible seasons but is only available for a team that meets the Tigers’ heavy asking price.

This leaves Greinke as a potentially very intriguing candidate, as the Diamondbacks are likelier to accept a lower-level prospect package just for the sake of getting the righty’s salary off the books.  While Greinke has largely been excellent over his tenure in Arizona, his contract takes up such a big percentage of the team’s payroll that it has left the semi-rebuilding D’Backs somewhat hamstrung in terms of financial flexibility.  Greinke is owed roughly $83.1MM in salary and signing bonus allotments until the end of the 2021 season — to put it in perspective, Greinke alone accounted for almost 28 percent of the Diamondbacks’ player payroll in 2019.

Trading for Greinke would probably put the Phillies over the $206MM luxury tax threshold, as Roster Resource currently projects their number as $196.36MM.  The Phils could try to move some other salaries to carve out some extra payroll space, or perhaps just accept going over the tax limit as the cost of doing business for a run at the postseason.

Then again, this could all be a moot point since Greinke said in February that he didn’t want to be dealt anywhere, and the Phillies are one of the 15 teams on his no-trade list.  While it’s possible Greinke’s feelings have changed in recent months, it could take some further negotiating to get Greinke into the fold, perhaps so much so that the Phillies could prefer to just move onto another trade target.

Giants Reportedly Still Plan To Sell Despite Recent Hot Streak

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The Giants have won eight of their past 10 games and are suddenly within three games of an NL Wild Card spot, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest 10 Degrees column that the team still plans to operate as a seller. The only real uncertainty surrounding team legend Madison Bumgarner, per the report, is where he’ll land.

“San Francisco’s recent success isn’t throwing a wrench in the team’s trade-Bumgarner-and-all-the-relievers plan,” writes Passan. The Giants, of course, have multiple intriguing bullpen pieces to market beyond Bumgarner. Will Smith is the top rental reliever available, while Sam Dyson is intriguing as a player who is both performing well and controlled through 2020. Southpaw Tony Watson should also draw interest, although as MLBTR detailed earlier this season, his contract isn’t nearly as affordable as some might think due to the large number of incentives he’s reached. He’s already at $8.5MM, and if Watson pitches in 14 more games this year, his salary will check in at a hefty $10.5MM.

Interestingly, at just about the same time Passan’s report hit the wire, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was presenting a less declarative stance — at least with the public. In an appearance on KNBR radio this morning (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area), Zaidi suggested that he doesn’t take opportunities at the postseason for granted. “Every pennant race and every opportunity you have to get to the playoffs has a ton of value,” said Zaidi. “It has a ton of value to the fans and the organization, and we don’t take that lightly.”

Obviously, it behooves any baseball operations head to take such a tone when his club is even on the periphery of contending. The “never say never” adage probably applies to the current iteration of the Giants. For instance, it’s difficult to imagine them selling in an extreme scenario where they rattle off another 10 or 11 consecutive victories to surge past the .500 mark and into Wild Card position.

However, the outlook for a playoff berth still isn’t favorable. The Giants need to overtake five teams and then hold that ground. Even then, they’d be faced with a one-game playoff against a second Wild Card winner that is likely not quite as patched together as the San Francisco club. There’d be no guarantee of aligning their rotation so that Bumgarner could start a theoretical Wild Card game, either, as the Giants would merely need to focus on winning every game in a tightly contested race.

While it’s conceptually possible for the Giants to hold onto Bumgarner but still trade other pieces, that scenario feels like a stretch. It’s true that Bumgarner would be a lock to turn down a qualifying offer, thus assuring the Giants of at least a compensatory draft pick. That’s less true of Smith, though, and not even in the realm of possibility for Watson. Keeping Bumgarner but trading Smith and Watson wouldn’t be a wholehearted pursuit of a postseason bid, and keeping all their chips only to collapse in August represents a worst-case scenario — a massive missed opportunity to bolster an ailing farm system.

An August collapse is hardly out of the question either. Red-hot Alex Dickerson is riding a .455 BABIP since joining the Giants — a pace he cannot possibly sustain. In fact, over their current 10-3 stretch, the Giants have seven regulars whose average on balls in play is north of .350 — and that doesn’t even count Evan Longoria, who erupted for six home runs in 11 games after previously hitting seven in 72 contests before landing on the injured list.

It seems clear that the Giants have a better roster now than in April, when they were cycling through the likes of Connor Joe, Michael Reed, Mac Williamson and others in the outfield and receiving career-worst levels of performance from veterans Gerardo Parra and Yangervis Solarte. At the same time, the Giants would probably need another 39 wins to have a puncher’s chance at the second NL Wild Card spot, as that’d give them the same 85-win total with which the Twins sneaked into a one-game showdown in 2017. Reaching that level would mean a .582 winning percentage from here on out — a pace that only the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Dodgers and Braves have managed thus far.

The Giants would need this iteration of the club to play like a top-six team in all of baseball for a total period of three months in order to make a playoff run seem plausible, and it’s not only possible but likely that they’d need even more than that hypothetical total of 85 victories to actually land in the Wild Card game. Viewed through that lens, it’s not hard to see why the team isn’t rushing to change course after a two-week hot streak against mostly mediocre teams — even if it’s a bitter pill for fans to swallow. Zaidi’s comments do leave the door cracked in the case of another two weeks of .600-or-better play, and probably signify that deals won’t come early, but they surely do not signify a committed change to the club’s sell-side trajectory.

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