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Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Position Players

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The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter.  When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft.  If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.

However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class.  As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.

A quick refresher on the QO rules.  The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players.  Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM.  Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization.  For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range.  (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract.  If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.

With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.

Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected.  Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign.  Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.

Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals.  However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27.  Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout).  Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.

Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again.  Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career.  Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary.  But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again.  Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.

Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April.  He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer.  However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.

A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal.  On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal.  From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances.  That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season.  Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.

Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well.  Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021.  With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.

At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer.  Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31.  Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range.  Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.

AL Central Notes: Robert, Guardians, Contreras, Tigers, Hinch

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X-rays were negative on Luis Robert’s left wrist, as the White Sox outfielder has been deemed day-to-day with a sprain.  Robert suffered the injury on a stolen-base attempt in the bottom of the sixth inning in Friday’s game, and was replaced in center field for the top of the seventh.

Chicago’s next off-day doesn’t come until August 29, so there isn’t any room for Robert to get a break without leaving the White Sox undermanned on the roster.  As such, a 10-day injured list visit could be necessary if there’s any lingering soreness, and the Sox might prefer to lose Robert for a few games now in order to get him fully healthy for the rest of the postseason race.  Though he has already missed a couple of weeks (on the COVID-IL and on the regular IL due to blurred vision), Robert has still been a big contributor to the White Sox, hitting .301/.336/.454 with 12 homers in 354 plate appearances.

Other notes from around the AL Central…

  • The Guardians were among the teams who had interest in Willson Contreras at the trade deadline, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.  The Cubs didn’t end up moving Contreras anywhere, while the Guards had a quiet deadline overall — they ended up moving a catcher themselves, dealing Sandy Leon to the Twins in a minor trade.  Despite interest in both Contreras and the Athletics’ Sean Murphy, Cleveland stood pat at catching, leaving Austin Hedges and Luke Maile as the primary tandem behind the plate unless the Guardians look to call up top prospect Bo Naylor.
  • A.J. Hinch ended any speculation that he might seek a move to the Tigers’ front office, telling reporters (including The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen) earlier this week “I’m the manager.  I plan on being the manager.”  However, owner Chris Ilitch did state that Hinch would have some input on who might replace Al Avila as the club’s next general manager.  To this end, Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggests that former Diamondbacks and Padres GM Josh Byrnes could be a candidate for the Detroit job — Byrnes and Hinch worked together in Arizona’s front office, with Byrnes giving Hinch his first managerial job in the Diamondbacks’ dugout.  Byrnes has been working as the senior VP of baseball operations for the Dodgers since 2014.

Cubs Aren’t Trading Willson Contreras, Ian Happ

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After months of speculation, the Cubs will pass the trade deadline without moving two of their biggest trade chips.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that both catcher Willson Contreras and outfielder Ian Happ will both be staying put in Wrigleyville.

It hasn’t exactly been a quiet deadline for the Cubs, as Mychal Givens, David Robertson, Chris Martin, and Scott Effross have all been shipped out of town in the last few days.  But beyond this bullpen exodus, it seems that Chicago will be hanging onto its two most heavily-sought after position players, despite many rumors about other teams’ interest.

Clubs such as the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Padres had been linked to Happ, who is hitting .279/.360/.436 over 408 plate appearances and was just named to his first All-Star team.  While Happ’s production has been somewhat inconsistent over his six MLB seasons, he has been a solidly above-average hitter overall, and also emerged as capable defensive player in center field.

Since Happ is arbitration-controlled through the 2023 season, there may not have been quite the urgency on Chicago’s part to move the 27-year-old unless another team stepped forward with a knockout offer.  The Cubs continue to give mixed signals about their near-term and longer-term plans to contend, yet since their most recent moves have trended towards more retooling, it is probably safe to guess that Happ will continue to feature in trade rumors throughout the offseason and up until next year’s deadline if Chicago isn’t in contention.

The lack of movement on Contreras, however, is harder to figure.  The longtime Cubs catcher is a free agent after the season, and since the team aggressively moved several pending free agents (i.e. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez) at last year’s deadline, it seemed like a sure bet that Contreras would follow suit this season.  If anything, it may have been a little surprising that Contreras wasn’t moved last year as well, except the idea that the Cubs wanted to keep the catcher and sign him to a contract extension also didn’t come to fruition.

The Mets, Rays, Padres, and Astros were all linked to Contreras in recent rumors, though Houston instead obtained Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox as a catching upgrade.  Tampa Bay acquired Christian Bethancourt earlier in July, and now he’ll stand as the Rays’ only catcher trade of deadline season.

As for other suitors, it could be that the Mets, Padres, and the ever-popular “mystery teams” simply didn’t step forward with an offer that met the Cubs’ liking.  San Diego will continue with the respectable Austin Nola/Jorge Alfaro tandem at catcher, and the smaller-scale depth addition of Cam Gallagher from the Royals.  (Plus, it could simply be most of the Padres’ trade attention was focused on larger matters like the Juan Soto blockbuster).  New York ended making only relatively minor upgrades instead of any big swings at the deadline, and the team will now have to continue to hope that James McCann can get back on track.

Another factor to consider is the recent lack of an agreement between the league and the players’ union about the implementation of an international player draft.  Since that deal wasn’t reached, the old qualifying offer system will remain in place throughout the life of the current collective bargaining agreement, and thus the Cubs would get a compensatory draft pick back for Contreras if he rejected a QO and signed elsewhere.  That means that essentially, other teams had to offer something that the Cubs preferred to that extra pick.

Even with all of this in mind, it is still surprising that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer couldn’t find any kind of acceptable trade match for Contreras, either in the days leading up to the deadline or even back during the offseason.  Considering the lack of extension talks, it would seem unlikely that the two sides will match up on a new deal before Contreras hits the open market, or after he becomes a free agent and has 29 other teams to bid on his services.  Contreras has been open about the stress and uncertainty he has faced with all of this nonstop trade buzz, but while that noise will quiet, some awkwardness may remain over what could be his last two months in a Cubs uniform.

Willson Contreras Rumors: Deadline Day

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“I’m ready for this to be over with,” Willson Contreras told reporters in San Francisco on Sunday regarding the trade rumors that have swirled around him for months.  Contreras has very likely played his last game for the Cubs, who are widely expected to trade their longtime catcher before today’s 5pm deadline.  Contreras, 30, broke into the Majors during the Cubs’ 2016 championship season and made three All-Star teams, including this year.  The club chose not to extend him along the way, so now Contreras is on the eve of free agency and will be joining a pennant race before long.  Here’s the latest:

LATEST RUMORS:

EARLIER:

Astros Exploring Catching Market, Have Discussed Willson Contreras With Cubs

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The Astros have been linked to Josh Bell a few times in recent days, but the Nationals first baseman isn’t the only rental bat on Houston’s radar. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Astros have been in contact with the Cubs about catcher Willson Contreras.

More broadly, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this morning that Houston is looking into ways to add to the catching corps before next Tuesday’s trade deadline. The Astros have been without veteran backup Jason Castro for nearly a month, and manager Dusty Baker indicated over the weekend that Castro wasn’t progressing as hoped (via team field reporter Julia Morales). That has left the club relying on rookie Korey Lee to back up Martín Maldonado. Lee is one of the better prospects in the Houston farm system, but he’s struggled this year in his first extended crack at Triple-A.

Of course, there are myriad ways in which the Houston front office could address the catching group. If they’re committed to keeping Maldonado as the primary backstop, then a veteran depth option in the Tucker Barnhart mold could suffice. The Tigers would certainly be open to moving the impending free agent for a minimal prospect return.

Contreras, on the other hand, would require sending significant talent back to Chicago. He’s a virtual lock to change uniforms within the next week. Because MLB and the Players Association didn’t agree to an international draft, the qualifying offer system for free agents is set to remain in place. The Cubs could theoretically hold Contreras and recoup a draft pick once he signs elsewhere next winter, but they’re far likelier to land a more valuable return via trade.

Maldonado, who has started 70 of Houston’s 97 games behind the plate, is beloved in the clubhouse for his management of the pitching staff. He’s never been a good hitter, though, and his .237 on-base percentage is the fifth-lowest mark among 260 hitters with 200+ plate appearances on the season. Maldonado has also rated as a below-average pitch framer and overall defender in the eyes of public metrics this season. The Astros clearly believe he brings immense intangible value, but there’s room on paper for an upgrade.

Of course, if the Astros want to keep Maldonado behind the plate, they could make room for Contreras’ bat at other positions. The Cubs backstop has long been regarded as a bat-first catcher. He’s made strides from a pitch framing perspective in recent seasons, improving from one of the league’s worst-rated framers to roughly average in that regard. Passan notes, however, that some contenders have expressed concern about Contreras’ ability to manage a new pitching staff quickly — not an uncommon refrain for catchers who are dealt midseason. Contreras is talented enough a hitter than an acquiring team could plug him in more frequently at first base and/or designated hitter than at catcher for the season’s final few months while still upgrading their offense.

Houston has Yordan Álvarez at DH, although he’s seen sporadic time in left field as well. The clearer path for an offensive upgrade is at first base, where Yuli Gurriel has a disappointing .234/.287/.384 season line. Bell would be a more obvious direct replacement for Gurriel, but it’s not out of the question teams could eye Contreras — owner of a career-best .258/.373/.470 slash — as an option to rotate between DH, first base and catcher rather than as a full-time backstop.

The Astros aren’t the only team in contact with the Cubs about Contreras, of course. The Mets have been tied to him for a few weeks, and both Passan and Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated suggest today he remains a viable target for New York. Ragazzo reports that New York and the Cubs have discussed trade frameworks involving Contreras and Cubs closer David Robertson in a package deal that would send multiple prospects back to Chicago. Ragazzo adds that Francisco Álvarez and Brett Baty — the top two prospects in the system in Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 — would be off the table. The only other Mets farmhand to make BA’s top 100 is outfielder Alex Ramirez, but players like Matt Allan, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos have been in the recent Top 100 mix for various prospect outlets.

Cubs’ Ian Happ Drawing Significant Trade Interest

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Willson Contreras generates the most public speculation among Cubs trade candidates with the deadline a week away, but teammate outfielder Ian Happ has emerged as one of the more in-demand names on the summer market, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. That’s particularly notable when paired with Happ’s recent acknowledgment that the team has not approached him about a contract extension (link via Patrick Mooney of The Athletic).

Happ is “likely” to be traded within the next week, Passan writes, adding that some interested parties have approached the Cubs about package deals that would see one of Contreras or Happ traded alongside a reliever such as David Robertson or Mychal Givens. (Passan doesn’t specifically mention righty Chris Martin, though as a pending free agent, he’s surely available as well.) More interestingly, Dennis Lin of The Athletic wrote over the weekend that the Padres have expressed interest in adding both Contreras and Happ in the same trade, though the ask on that would surely be immense.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored Happ’s career-best production earlier this month, observing that notable gains in Happ’s plate discipline profile have generated the strongest and most sustainable results of his six big league seasons. Happ has always drawn walks at a high clip, but his penchant for strikeouts has often suppressed his overall value at the plate.

Most notably, as Anthony wrote at the time, Happ has wildly improved upon his contact rates in 2022. His 62.6% contact rate on pitches off the plate is up ten full percentage points from 2021, and his 83.7% contact rate in pitches in the zone is up from 79.9% a year ago. Happ’s 75.9% overall contact rate is less than one percentage point below the league average. That may not sound all that impressive, but pair roughly average contact skills with Happ’s high-end walk rate (10.9%), above-average power and above-average speed, and Happ looks like an increasingly well-rounded player. The switch-hitting Happ has also posted substantially better numbers as a right-handed hitter this season than in years past, and while part of that is due to a sky-high .463 BABIP as a righty, he’s also cut his strikeout rate against left-handers by about six percentage points this year (down to 25.1%).

Defensively, opinions on Happ are going to be a bit more mixed. After bouncing around the diamond more earlier in his career, he’s settled in as Chicago’s left fielder this season, which is his best position. He’s logged 706 of his 718 defensive frames in left this season, with the other 12 coming via a few brief cameos in center. He’s been a scratch defender in 2022, per Statcast’s Outs Above Average, although both Defensive Runs Saved (+5) and Ultimate Zone Rating (+3.9) feel he’s been above-average.

It’s easy enough to see why Happ’s overall skill set would make him an appealing trade chip. He’s at least a solid defender in left — and a balanced switch-hitter with aa .282/.367/.445 batting line in 387 trips to the plate so far this season. His home run power hasn’t been up to previous levels — his nine long balls put him shy of pace to match last year’s career-high 25 — but Happ has already connected on a career-best 24 doubles and tacked on a couple of triples for good measure. Of even greater appeal, however, is the fact that Happ is controlled for an additional season beyond the current campaign.

Assuming Happ is indeed traded, whichever club acquires him can pencil him into left field both for the current postseason push and the entirety of the 2023 season. He’s earning $6.9MM this season and shouldn’t command much more than $10MM in 2023, which makes him affordable for the majority of clubs around the league. Happ also won’t even turn 28 until next month, meaning the former No. 9 overall draft pick is squarely in the typical prime of a hitter’s career.

Whether the Cubs will ultimately pursue the package offers reported by Passan or instead attempt to engineer standalone trades for all of their chips, of course, is entirely dependent on the strength of offers they receive. However, virtually every contender is looking to deepen its bullpen, so it’s only natural to think that a team with interest in Happ would take a two-birds-with-one-stone approach. Each of Robertson, Givens and Martin will be a free agent at season’s end, and each is in the midst of a fine season.

Robertson has drawn the most attention among Cubs relievers in early speculation — as is often the case for those in the vaunted closer role — thanks in large part to a pristine 1.83 ERA and 14 saves on the season. He’s earning a $3.5MM base salary, though he’s on pace to reach all of his incentives (including a $100K trade bonus), which would bring his total salary up to $5.1MM. Still, for a pitcher with his track record and a 31.4% strikeout rate, that’s a reasonable price to pay — even if this year’s 11.9% walk rate is a bit concerning.

The 32-year-old Givens is also earning $3.5MM, but his contract contains $1.25MM of incentives and a $1.5MM buyout on next year’s mutual option, so his ultimate price tag will fall more in the $5.5MM to $6MM range. He’s pitched a 2.79 ERA with a 29.1% strikeout rate and a similarly elevated 11.5% walk rate. Like Robertson, Givens has a long track record as a solid late-inning reliever with roots in the AL East (Orioles).

As for the 36-year-old Martin, his ERA has swelled to 4.50 after yielding five runs through his past 3 2/3 innings, but even looking past that recent slump, he’s touting a brilliant 37-to-4 K/BB ratio in 30 innings so far in 2022. He’s on a $2.5MM salary and probably won’t get the 60 appearances he needs to max out his incentives, but he’s likely to unlock either $400K or $500K of the available bonuses on his incentive-laden contract before becoming a free agent at season’s end.

Mets Rumors: Bell, Mancini, Szapucki

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There’s not much traction at present between the Nationals and Mets on a potential Josh Bell swap, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. Bell is one of several designated hitter candidates in whom the Mets are known to have interest, but it seems as though talks between the two parties haven’t proved fruitful. Pat Ragazzo and Michael Marino of Sports Illustrated/Fan Nation report that the Mets put forth an offer for Bell and a Nationals reliever that included an upper-level minor league starter and outfielder.

The Mets moved last week to begin augmenting their DH rotation, flipping reliever Colin Holderman to the Pirates in a trade that brought Daniel Vogelbach back to Queens. Vogelbach, however, figures to be a pure platoon option, whereas the switch-hitting Bell would be an everyday option who’d push Vogelbach into a bench role. The Mets have continued to look for potential DH upgrades even in the wake of the Voeglbach deal, Martino writes, with Trey Mancini, C.J. Cron and Willson Contreras among those who might still be under consideration.

They won’t have the opportunity to evaluate Mancini today, as he’ll take a seat on the heels of an 0-for-22 swoon at the plate. That offensive freefall has dropped Mancini’s batting line from a robust .285/.359/.429 (124 wRC+) to .268/.345/.404 (113 wRC+). Mancini has still been better than a league-average hitter on the whole, but it’s a poor time for him to struggle through his toughest patch of the season, particularly from a team vantage point.

The Orioles won 10 games in a row to thrust themselves onto the fringes of the American Wild Card chase prior to the deadline, but they’ve since gone 2-4 against the Rays and Yankees in a pair of road series. Mancini’s slump obviously isn’t the sole cause of the team’s momentum slowing down, but it was a contributing factor as Baltimore dropped a few close games. It’s also suboptimal for a club that could still move Mancini prior to next Tuesday’s trade deadline; an 0-for-22 doesn’t wipe out all of Mancini’s trade value, of course, but it’s tougher for a rival front office to give up a prospect of note for a hitter in such a pronounced slump.

Cron has a robust .292/.347/.546 line on the year, but it’s questionable whether the Rockies would consider moving him when he’s cheaply signed for 2023, particularly since Colorado GM Bill Schmidt has already pushed back against a major sell-off. Contreras seems a virtual lock to move in the next eight days, but the Mets reluctance to deal from the top of the farm system would make landing perhaps the top rental bat available a challenge.

Bell, Mancini and Vogelbach were just a handful of the Mets’ reported targets as they look to bolster the lineup, and Martino reported last week that GM Billy Eppler and his team were exploring trade scenarios involving both Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis. Clearly, there’s some turnover to be expected. Martino even floats the possibility of the Mets dealing Vogelbach if they land an impact bat, although there’s no indication that’s especially likely.

The exact return the Mets might surrender in order to bolster the lineup is, of course, wholly dependent on the caliber of player on which they settle — but Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that minor league lefty Thomas Szapucki has drawn some interest from other teams as New York has poked around the trade market. The 26-year-old lefty has yielded a staggering 15 runs in just five Major League innings across the past two seasons, but Szapucki has had a nice year in Triple-A Syracuse, pitching to a 3.48 ERA with a huge 31.9% strikeout rate against an 11% walk rate in 62 innings.

Those 62 frames have been scattered over 16 starts, which comes out to an average of under four innings per outing. That’s a bit of a strange phenomenon, even in today’s game, but the Mets have been cautious with Szapucki’s workload after he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and season-ending surgery on his ulnar nerve last summer. He began the year throwing just two to three innings per start but has continued to build up his pitch count over the course of the year, peaking with a season-high 93 pitches back on July 6.

The Mets and other clubs may want to be cautious with his overall innings total and his pitch count on a game-to-game basis, but he’s a reasonably youthful lefty who can be controlled at least six years beyond the current campaign. Even if there’s some injury risk, he has three average or better pitches and could certainly operate as a multi-inning reliever down the road if his arm doesn’t prove capable of a starter’s workload. Speculatively, Szapucki would fit the billing of the “upper-level starting pitcher” the Mets are said to have offered to Washington in Bell talks, though there’s no specific indication that Szapucki was part of that offer.

MLB Announces 2022 All-Star Starters

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Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2022 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday, July 19. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

American League

National League

Mets Have Interest In Nelson Cruz

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The Mets are among the teams with interest in Nationals slugger Nelson Cruz, reports the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.

At this stage of his career, Cruz is strictly a designated hitter. Apart from one game at first base with the Rays in 2021, he hasn’t played the field since 2018. The Mets have frequently used their DH slot to give their regulars a half-day off, though the closest things they have to regular designated hitters are J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith. Both players have shown offensive prowess in the past but are having down years so far in 2022, making it fairly logical that the Mets would be thinking about upgrades.

Through 128 plate appearances coming into tonight, Smith is hitting .221/.297/.327 for a wRC+ of 83, a far cry from the 134 he put up in 2019 and the 166 during the shortened 2020 campaign. It’s a second straight season of diminished production for Smith, as he also put up a line of .244/.304/.363 last year, 86 wRC+. As for Davis, he had a wRC+ between 118 and 137 in the previous three seasons but is down to 98 this year, with a line of .240/.328/.338 coming into tonight’s action. There’s a bit more reason for optimism in the case of Davis, as he’s still hitting the ball hard. Statcast gives him good marks on basically every batted ball metric, including placing him in the 98th percentile in terms of average exit velocity. However, it seems the Mets are willing to look outside the organization to consider a change.

The Nationals underwent a big roster teardown last year, trading away many of their best players for prospects. In the offseason, they signed a number of veterans to one-year deals, with Cruz getting the largest and the most notable of the contracts. With the club knowing they were entering a noncompetitive rebuild year, his $15MM deal was clearly designed with a midseason trade in mind. As expected, the club is currently sporting a recording of 30-55, the second-worst in the National League.

However, Cruz isn’t exactly holding up his end of the bargain, as he’s hitting just .241/.322/.369 for a wRC+ of 94. That’s fairly similar to the production he put up with the Rays after last year’s midseason trade from the Twins. His batting line in a Rays’ uniform last year was .226/.283/.442, 96 wRC+. That means it’s been almost a full season’s worth of below average offensive production for the 42-year-old.

It’s still likely that some team takes a shot on Cruz based on his track record, but it’s unlikely the Nats will get the huge return they may have envisioned. Last year, the Twins sent Cruz and Calvin Faucher to the Rays in exchange for Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman. That deal seems to have worked out very well for the Twins, with Ryan emerging as a key piece of their rotation, though Strotman is struggling in the minors. Cruz was hitting .294/.370/.537 at the time of the deal for a wRC+ of 141, which surely helped the Twins net a return that the Nats are unlikely to match.

Since the Nats are so far out of contention and Cruz is heading back into free agency at season’s end, it’s likely that they will take the best prospect package they can find. That means it’s unlikely the Mets and Nats make perfect trading partners, as Heyman’s report notes that the Mets hope to hang onto all of their top prospects. This lines up with reporting from Bob Nightengale of USA Today from a few days ago, which suggested the Mets would prefer to take on large contracts as opposed to giving up important young players. That would seem to suggest the two clubs have misaligned priorities, though it’s possible the Nats aren’t able to get top prospects from any team, based on Cruz’s diminished production over the past year. Heyman adds this lack of willingness to deal top prospects makes it unlikely the Mets land either Josh Bell or Willson Contreras, but makes Cruz and Trey Mancini better fits. The Mets’ interest in Mancini was reported last week.

Given the rebuild, the Nats’ payroll is the lowest it’s been in about a decade, outside the shortened 2020 campaign, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That presumably means they don’t need to move Cruz just for financial reasons. For their part, the Mets are right up against the new fourth luxury tax line of $290MM. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates that the Mets have already surpassed the line, calculating their luxury tax number to be $290.1MM. The aggressive spending has worked out for them thus far, as they are currently 51-31, trailing only the Dodgers among NL teams and giving them a 2 1/2 game lead over Atlanta in the East. They will surely look to be aggressive between now and the August 2 trade deadline in order to supplement their roster for a postseason run.

Looking For A Match In A Willson Contreras Trade

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This year’s Aug. 2 trade deadline is just over seven weeks away, and while some names won’t become obvious candidates to move until five or even six weeks from now, others have been evident for more than a year. That’s more true of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras than arguably any player in baseball. There may not be a likelier player to get traded this summer, and the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. The Cubs looked like probable deadline sellers heading into the 2021 season, and Contreras’ fate looked clear when Chicago sold off Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, among others. Some fans might’ve held out hope for an extension that would make Contreras the centerpiece of the next contending Cubs core, but no long-term deal came to fruition.

From both the player and team vantage point, Contreras’ current career year has come at the perfect time. He’s hitting .267/.394/.506 with 10 home runs, 10 doubles and a triple through 213 trips to the plate. By measure of wRC+, the only catcher who’s been more productive (min. 100 plate appearances) is Willson’s own brother, William, who is having a breakout campaign over in Atlanta. Willson’s 10 homers are tops among catchers, and he’s on pace for career-highs in several offensive categories. A pending free agent couldn’t ask for a much better walk year, and the Cubs have to be thrilled to see him producing like this at a time when league-wide catcher offense hasn’t been this bad since 2002.

Contreras has acknowledged that a trade appears to be his likely fate at this point, and it’s more a question of when and where than whether it’ll happen at all. Since a trade feels far likelier than not, let’s take some time and run through the possible landing spots for Contreras over the next several weeks.

Obvious Fits

Astros: The only team in Major League Baseball that has gotten worse production from behind the plate is the Orioles, who entered the year trying to lose and have since watched their top prospect struggle upon his initial call to the big leagues. Martin Maldonado has posted an awful .153/.225/.277 batting line, while backup Jason Castro has somehow been even worse at .102/.206/.136. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this week that the Astros will likely stick with Maldonado despite the complete lack of offense, declining framing marks and increasingly frequent passed balls. The rationale appears to be that Maldonado’s leadership and game-planning skills are too valuable.

That piece, however, did not acknowledge the possibility that the Astros can still go ahead and acquire Contreras, pushing Maldonado to a backup role and jettisoning Castro from the roster. There’s no justification for a supposed World Series hopeful to trot out a pair of catchers that has combined to hit .141/.221/.241 this season. Houston has other needs, be they in center field or at first base where Yuli Gurriel’s bat has cratered, but Astros catchers have been 63% worse than league-average at the plate (by measure of wRC+). Whatever intangible value Maldonado may be providing with his game-planning, he’s giving a lot of it back at the dish. And, again, it’s eminently possible to keep Maldonado on the roster and still install Contreras as the everyday catcher.

Mets: James McCann hasn’t lived up to his four-year, $40.6MM contract in the first place, and he’s currently on the injured list for the foreseeable future owing to a fractured hamate bone that’ll sideline him into July. McCann should be back in action by the time the trade deadline rolls around, but he’s hitting just .196/.266/.286 on the season anyhow and hamate injuries can have lingering effects on a hitter’s production even after they’re cleared to return.

It’s in the Mets’ best interest to get McCann sorted out at some point, but they have two years left to figure that out (or to find a way to unload the contract). Backups Tomas Nido (.245/.277/.274) and Patrick Mazeika (.186/.205/.326) haven’t provided any offense whatsoever in McCann’s absence. Taking on Contreras pushes McCann to a backup role and deepens the lineup considerably — both this summer as the Braves continue to heat up and climb in the standings and in the postseason, when they’ll be facing off against better pitching than they see during the regular season.

Giants: Buster Posey abruptly retired following a resurgent 2021 season, and former No. 2 overall pick Joey Bart hasn’t been able to seize the opportunity as the Giants’ new starter just yet. Optioned to Triple-A last after hitting .156/.296/.300 through 108 plate appearances, Bart could still eventually sort things out and solidify himself as the Giants’ catcher of the future. For now, however, they’re relying on career backup Curt Casali and journeyman Austin Wynns, whom they acquired from the Phillies last week.

The Giants are a deep-pocketed club with a $162MM payroll that’s nowhere near their franchise record and an improved farm system. General manager Scott Harris, formerly an assistant general manager with the Cubs, is plenty familiar with Contreras and all he can bring to the table.

Payroll Concerns

Rays: Only a hair better than the Astros in terms of their overall production, Tampa Bay catchers are batting a combined .169/.195/.305 this season. Mike Zunino’s defense remains highly regarded, but he’s having the worst season of his career at the plate (.148/.195/.304). Backup Francisco Mejia has been a bit better at the plate but much worse behind it.

It’s an open question as to whether the Rays, whose current $83MM payroll sadly constitutes a franchise-record mark, would receive ownership support to take on Contreras and the remainder of his salary. The Cubs could perhaps be persuaded to include some cash to cover some or all of the salary, but doing so on their end would require the Rays to part with a steeper prospect package. The Rays, as always, have a deep system and could afford to make such a move. Perhaps they could sell the Cubs on taking back the remainder of the recently optioned Ryan Yarbrough’s $3.85MM salary to help balance things out a bit. (Chicago could certainly use some more pitching depth.) Specific names aside, there aren’t many more obvious fits for Contreras than Tampa Bay.

Padres: Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro have combined to bat .239/.298/.326 while logging every inning for the Padres at catcher this season. San Diego has top catching prospect Luis Campusano hitting well in Triple-A, so perhaps the most straightforward path to an upgrade is simply to promote him to the big league roster.

That, paired with the fact that the Friars are just inches below the new $230MM luxury-tax threshold, makes them a tough fit. There’s a clear on-paper need for the Padres to improve their production behind the dish, but the also have needs in the outfield corners and/or at first base, and the bandwidth to take on Contreras doesn’t seem to be there. The Cubs aren’t going to take on Eric Hosmer or another weighty contract in a deal like this, and asking Chicago to pick up all of the remaining tab on Contreras would only up the price.

Guardians: Austin Hedges is one of the best defensive players in baseball, regardless of position … but one of the sport’s worst hitters as well. Maybe Cleveland simply wouldn’t be interested in displacing Hedges and his potential Gold Glove, but it’s hard to look at his .175/.233/.283 batting line and not wonder how the Guardians’ lineup would look upon swapping that out for Contreras and his aforementioned .267/.394/.506 slash. And, as with the Astros, the Guards could certainly keep Hedges as a defensive-minded backup, pushing Bryan Lavastida back to Triple-A and probably pushing Luke Maile off the roster.

Cleveland’s payroll is just under $70MM right now, and one would think that leaves more than enough room to add veterans at the deadline. But payroll has been a major issue in recent seasons, and it’s not clear whether they’ll be close enough to a playoff spot to make a move like this — or whether they’d be willing to part with long-term value for a rental who’d immediately be their second-highest-paid player.

Wait and See

Yankees: The Yankees have received surprising production from trade acquisition Jose Trevino, who’s batted .309/.356/.505 and already matched his career-high five home runs in just 104 plate appearances. Trevino came to the Yankees as a lifetime .245/.270/.364 hitter, however, so it’s fair to be a bit skeptical of his ability to sustain this pace. He’s not striking out much but also isn’t making much in the way of hard contact, either. The trade deadline is still six weeks out, and if Trevino regresses toward his career levels of production, then the Yankees figure to be in this market, particularly with Kyle Higashioka again struggling at the plate.

Mariners: Seattle was getting career-best production from Tom Murphy before he landed on the injured list with a dislocated shoulder. He’s since suffered a setback, and it’s not clear when he’ll be ready to return. Prospect Cal Raleigh is doing his best Zunino impression in place of Murphy, striking out in a third of his plate appearances while showing good power and strong defensive marks. Raleigh, 25, has a .168/.252/.411 batting line with seven long balls in 107 plate appearances. If he can find some more consistency and/or if Murphy can get on track for a return, the Mariners might not feel the need to make this type of move. Beyond that, the M’s have cooled after a hot start and are 4.5 games back from a Wild Card position and six games under .500. They’re close enough to act as buyers right now, but that outlook could change in the coming weeks.

Marlins: Miami hoped to have addressed its catching need this winter when acquiring Jacob Stallings, but he’s hitting .206/.271/.255 in his first season with the Fish. Even more problematic is the team’s overall performance against southpaws: an MLB-worst .205/.280/.315. The Marlins are a fringe contender at the moment and probably have bigger needs even if they were to make a push at the deadline.

Longer Shots

White Sox: The Sox are already paying Yasmani Grandal $18.25MM, and while the resulting .185/.294/.237 batting line can’t sit well with the organization, there’s no indication to this point that they’re prepared to take on a notable veteran like Contreras and push Grandal into the role of MLB’s highest-paid backup. It’d be interesting to see another chapter entered into the story of crosstown Chicago blockbusters, though. The Sox didn’t get what they were hoping for when acquiring Craig Kimbrel last summer, but the prior North Side/South Side swap sent Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez to the Sox for Jose Quintana.

Twins: Minnesota’s focus at the trade deadline is going to rightly be pitching help — both in the bullpen and in the rotation — but their catchers have been a middle-of-the-pack unit, at best. Gary Sanchez leads the team in plate appearances at designated hitter and has hit better as a DH than as a catcher. But the Twins feel he’s been better than his reputation with the glove, and they’ve used the DH spot as a means of giving several players off — including Byron Buxton. Sure, the lineup would be deeper and better with Contreras catching, Sanchez at DH and Ryan Jeffers as a backup catcher, but this isn’t going to be a priority.

Red Sox: Christian Vazquez has posted a solid, if unremarkable .271/.315/.374 batting line in 168 plate appearances this season, but neither of Boston’s backup options (Kevin Plawecki, Connor Wong) have provided any offense at all. This doesn’t feel all that likely, as Boston probably has bigger needs to consider when the deadline rolls around — assuming they hang onto (or remain within striking distance of) their current No. 3 Wild Card spot in the American League.

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Contreras has been the best all-around catcher in baseball this offseason, so you could make the argument that he can/should be shoehorned into just about any contender or fringe contender’s lineup. But when looking at the combination of legitimate playoff chances, pure need behind the plate and realistic ability to facilitate a trade of this nature (based on luxury tax, farm system, payroll), it’s hard to look past the Astros, Mets, Rays and Giants as the best fits for a short-term splash behind the plate.

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