Padres Rumors

The Top Minor League Performers Of 2018

By Jason Martinez | September 18, 2018 at 6:15pm CDT

Over at Roster Resource, I rank Minor Leaguers throughout the regular season using a formula that takes into account several statistics with age and level serving as important factors in how they are weighed. These are not prospect rankings!

This is how it works:

Hitters are mostly rated by total hits, outs, extra-base hits, walks, strikeouts and stolen bases.
Pitchers are mostly rated by strikeouts, walks, earned runs, home runs and hits allowed per inning.
A few counting stats are included (IP, plate appearances, runs, RBI) to ensure that the players atop the list played a majority of the season.
The younger the player and the higher the level, the more weight each category is given. Therefore, a 19-year-old with an identical stat line as a 25-year-old at the same level will be ranked much higher. If a 23-year-old in Triple-A puts up an identical stat line as a 23-year-old in High-A, the player in Triple-A would be ranked much higher.

A player’s potential does not factor in to where they are ranked. If you’re wondering why a certain prospect who is rated highly by experts isn’t on the list, it’s likely because they missed time due to injury (see Victor Robles or Nick Senzel), MLB promotion (Juan Soto) or just weren’t productive enough. While there are plenty of recognizable names throughout the MiLB Power Rankings Top 200 list, it’s also full of players who were relatively unknown prior to the season and have seen their stock rise significantly due to their performance. Here’s a closer look at the Top 20.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Guerrero probably deserved to start his MLB career sometime between the debuts of NL Rookie of the Year candidates Ronald Acuña Jr. (April 25th) and Juan Soto (May 20th). All things being equal, that would’ve been the case.

But his call-up was delayed, mostly because third baseman Josh Donaldson was healthy in May and designated hitter Kendrys Morales was being given every opportunity to break out of an early season slump. As Guerrero’s path to regular playing time was becoming clearer, he suffered a knee injury in early June that kept him out of action for a month. When he returned, the Jays’ playoff chances had dwindled. Instead of adding him to the 40-man roster and starting his service time clock, they chose to delay his MLB debut until 2019.

You can hate the rule, but I’m certain Jays fans would rather have Guerrero under team control in 2025 as opposed to having him on the team for a few meaningless months in 2018 and headed for free agency after the 2024 season. And maybe it’s just me, but I kind of enjoy seeing what kind of numbers a player can put up when he’s way too good for his competition. And all this 19-year-old kid did was slash .381/.437/.636 with 20 HR, 29 2B, 37 BB, 38 K in 408 plate appearances, mostly between Triple-A and Double-A (he had 14 PAs during a rehab stint in the low minors). Thanks for providing us with that beautiful stat line, Vlad Jr.

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2. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart

Despite a slow start—he had 21 hits in his first 83 Triple-A at-bats with one homer and 20 strikeouts— the 21-year-old Tucker showed why the World Champions were willing to give him a chance to take their starting left field job and run with it in July.

Tucker wasn’t quite ready for the Big Leagues—he was 8-for-52 in two separate MLB stints prior to a recent third call-up—but his stock hasn’t dropped one bit after slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers, 27 doubles and 20 stolen bases over 465 plate appearances in his first season at the Triple-A level.

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3. Luis Rengifo, SS, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

A 21-year-old shortstop just finished a Minor League season with 50 extra-base hits (7 HR, 30 2B, 13 3B), 41 stolen bases, as many walks as strikeouts (75 of each) and a .299/.399/.452 slash line. If the name Luis Rengifo doesn’t ring a bell, you’re probably not alone. He kind of came out of nowhere.

The Mariners traded him to the Rays last August in a deal for Mike Marjama and Ryan Garton. Nine months later, the Rays shipped him to the Angels as the PTBNL in the deal for C.J. Cron. Based on those two trades, I can say without hesitation that the Mariners and Rays did not think Rengifo was this good. Not even close.

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4. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

Lowe’s breakout season mirrors Juan Soto’s in one way: They both posted an OPS above 1.000 at two different levels before a promotion to a third. Soto’s third stop was in Double-A, and it was a very short stint before heading to the Majors. After destroying High-A and Double-A pitching, Lowe’s final stop of 2018 was Triple-A, where he finally cooled off.

Still, the 23-year-old has put himself squarely on the Rays’ radar. After homering just 11 times in his first 757 plate appearances, all in the low minors, Lowe broke out with 27 homers and 32 doubles in 555 plate appearances in 2018. His overall .330/.416/.568 slash was exceptional.

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5. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

We’re four seasons into the Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano era—both debuted during the 2015 season—and we can’t say for certain whether either player will even be penciled into the regular lineup in 2019. They could be still turn out to be perennial All-Stars someday. But you can’t blame Twins fans if they temper their expectations for the next great hitting star to come up through their farm system. And yet, that might be difficult with Kirilloff, a first-round draft pick in ’16, and last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, after the year each of them just had. Both are moving up the ladder quickly.

The 20-year-old Kirilloff, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, was a hitting machine in his first full professional season. After slashing .333/.391/.607 with 13 homers in 65 games with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he hit .362 with seven homers and 24 doubles in 65 games with High-A Fort Myers. He also had 11 hits in the playoffs, including a 5-hit performance on September 5th.

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6. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

All Bichette did during his age-20 season was hit 43 doubles and steal 32 bases while manning shortstop for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, the 2018 Eastern League Champions. It’s unlikely that he’ll join Vlad Jr. in the Majors early next season, but he might not be too far behind.

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7. Peter Alonso, 1B, New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart

Alonso’s monster season (.975 OPS, 36 HR, 31 2B, 119 RBI between AAA/AA) ended in disappointment when he was passed over for a September promotion. As was the case with Vlad Jr., it didn’t make much sense to start his service time clock and fill a valuable 40-man spot during the offseason—neither Guerrero or Alonso have to be protected from the next Rule 5 draft—while the team is playing meaningless games. The 23-year-old Alonso did establish, however, that he is the Mets’ first baseman of the very near future, and they’ll plan accordingly during the upcoming offseason.

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8. Touki Toussaint, SP, Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart

As tough as it will be to crack the Braves’ rotation in the coming years, the 22-year-old Toussaint has put himself in position to play a significant role in 2019 after posting a 2.38 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in 24 starts between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s also starting meaningful MLB games down the stretch as the Braves try to seal their first division title since 2013. After spending last October in the Arizona Fall League, where he followed up an underwhelming 2017 season by allowing 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, he could find himself on the Braves’ playoff roster.

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9. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

The highest-ranked player to spend the entire season in Low-A, the 20-year-old Brujan slashed .320/.403/.459 while stealing 55 bases in his first crack at a full season league (27 games in High-A; 95 games in Low-A). He’ll still be overshadowed a bit in a deep Tampa Bay farm system that includes two of the best young prospects in the game, Wander Franco and Jesus Sanchez, but it’s hard to ignore such a rare combination of speed and on-base ability displayed by a switch-hitting middle infielder.

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10. Michael King, SP, New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart

The Yankees’ offseason trade that sent two MLB-ready players, Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith, to the Marlins cleared a pair of 40-man roster spots prior to the Rule 5 draft and brought back $250K in international bonus pool money. They also received King, who—whether anyone expected it or not—was about to have a breakout season.

After posting a 3.14 ERA with a 6.4 K/9 over 149 innings in Low-A in his age-22 season, numbers that typically indicate “possible future back-of-the-rotation workhorse,” he looks to be much more than that after his 2018 performance. In 161 1/3 innings across Triple-A, Double-A and High-A, King posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.911 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. He was at his best once he reached Triple-A, posting a 1.15 ERA with only 20 hits and six walks allowed over 39 innings.

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11. Taylor Widener, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Unlike the trade to acquire King, the Yankees appear to have gotten the short end of the stick in a three-team, seven-player offseason deal with Arizona and Tampa Bay. They traded away Nick Solak to the Rays and Widener to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Brandon Drury, who was supposed to fill a short-term need for infield depth.

While Drury was a bust in New York—he had nine hits in 51 at-bats before being traded to Toronto in a July deal for J.A. Happ—Solak, a second baseman/outfielder, put up terrific numbers in Double-A (.834 OPS, 19 HR, 21 SB) and Widener has emerged as one of the better pitching prospects in the game. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.75 ERA, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 over 137 1/6 innings with Double-A Jackson.

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12. Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart

The offseason signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer certainly didn’t bode well for Naylor’s future with the Padres. Whether he had an MLB future at all, however, was already in question. First base prospects can’t just be good hitters. They need to mash, which is far from what Naylor did in 2017 (.761 OPS, 10 HR between Double-A and High-A). But a 20-year-old holding his own in Double-A is still interesting, nevertheless. So it was worth paying attention when he hit .379 with seven homers, five doubles, 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in April. He also spent most of his time in left field in 2018, adding a bit of versatility to his game.

Although April was his best month, by far, he still finished with an impressive .297/.383/.447 slash line. He’ll enter 2019 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A who has flashed some power (17 HR, 22 2B in 574 plate appearances) and above-average plate discipline (64 BB, 69 K).

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13. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Unlike the Jays and Mets, who had multiple reasons to keep Guerrero and Alonso in the Minors until 2019, the Sox’s decision to bypass Jimenez for a September call-up was more questionable.

Already on the 40-man roster and without much to prove after slashing .337/.384/.577 with 22 homers and 28 doubles between Triple-A and Double-A, Jimenez’s MLB debut appeared imminent as September approached. But White Sox general manager Rick Hahn, citing Jimenez’s need to improve his defense, confirmed in early September that he would not be called up. Of course, the 21-year-old probably would’ve benefited greatly from playing left field in the Majors for 20-25 games in September. And, of course, Hahn is just doing a good job of not saying the quiet part out loud: Eloy under team control through 2025 > Eloy under team control through 2024.

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14. Dean Kremer, SP, Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart

After posting a 5.18 ERA in 2017, mostly as a relief pitcher in High-A, Kremer’s stock rose quickly with a full-time move to the starting rotation in 2018. In 16 starts for High-A Rancho Cucamonga, the 22-year-old right-hander posted a 3.30 ERA with a 13.0 K/9. After tossing seven shutout innings in his Double-A debut, the Dodgers included him as a key piece in the July trade for Manny Machado. Kremer continued to pitch well with Double-A Bowie (2.58 ERA, 45 1/3 IP, 38 H, 17 BB, 53 K) and now finds himself on track to help a rebuilding Orioles’ team in 2019.

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15. Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart

Lopez started to turn some heads during last offseason’s Arizona Fall League, and it carried over into 2018 as he slashed .308/.382/.417 with nine homers, 15 stolen bases and more walks (60) than strikeouts (52) between Triple-A and Double-A. It’s a sign that the 23-year-0ld’s bat is catching up with his stellar defense and that he’s closing in on the Majors, where he could team with Adalberto Mondesi to form one of the better young middle infield duos in the game.

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16. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft didn’t disappoint in his first full professional season, posting an .853 OPS, nine homers, 23 doubles and 22 stolen bases in 75 Low-A games before a 2nd half promotion to High-A Fort Myers. He didn’t fare quite as well (.726 OPS, 5 HR, 6 SB in 46 games), but he did hit three homers in the playoffs to help his team win the Florida State League championship. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the if he reached Double-A early next season as a 19-year-old with a jump to the Majors in 2020 not out of the question.

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17. Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Throwing a 100 MPH fastball isn’t as rare as it used to be, but Kopech has reportedly touched 105 MPH, putting him in a class of his own. Unfortunately, the 22-year-old right-hander is expected to join a long list of pitchers who have had their careers interrupted by Tommy John surgery after he was recently diagnosed with a torn UCL.

The timing isn’t great, as Kopech had just arrived in the Majors in late August and would’ve likely been a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2019. Still, he’ll only have to prove that he’s back to full health before he returns to the Majors—he should be ready to return early in the 2020 season— after making a strong impression in Triple-A with a 3.70 ERA and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.

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18. Kevin Smith, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Not only do Guerrero, Bichette and Cavan Biggio likely form the best trio of infield prospects in the game, two are sons of Hall of Famers—Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and Craig Biggio, and Bichette’s dad, Dante, was also pretty good. And yet, another Blue Jays infield prospect with a very ordinary name and without MLB lineage managed to stand out. The 22-year-old finished the season with 25 homers, 31 doubles, 29 stolen bases and a cumulative .302/.358/.528 batting line between High-A and Low-A.

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19. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart

The former first-round pick wasn’t overly impressive in his first full Minor League season in 2017, slashing .244/.331/.362 with seven homers and 27 stolen bases for Low-A Great Lakes. A move to the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, however, seemed sure to give his offensive numbers a boost. It did. Lux had a .916 OPS and 41 extra-base hits in 404 plate appearances, but he also didn’t slow down once he reached the upper minors late in the year.

In 28 regular season games with Double-A Tulsa, the 20-year-old Lux slashed .324/.408/.495 with four homers in 120 plate appearances. It didn’t end there. Over an eight-game playoff run, the left-handed batter went 14-for-33 with five multi-hit games.

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20. Patrick Sandoval, SP, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

Acquiring the 21-year-old Sandoval from the Astros for free agent-to-be catcher Martin Maldonado could turn out to be the steal of the trade deadline. While the lefty didn’t stand out in Houston’s deep farm system, he was having a strong season at the High-A and Low-A levels at the time of the trade (2.56 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in 88 innings). The change of scenery didn’t affect him one bit as he tossed 14 2/3 shutout innings in the California League before finishing the season with four impressive Double-A starts (19 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 27 K).

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Power Ranking Leaders By Level

Triple-A
Hitter: Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Relief Pitcher: Ian Gibaut, Tampa Bay Rays

Double-A
Hitter: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitcher: Taylor Widener, Arizona Diamondbacks
Relief Pitcher: Matt Pierpont, Colorado Rockies

High-A
Hitter: Colton Welker, Colorado Rockies
Pitcher: Emilio Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Low-A
Hitter: Chavez Young, Toronto Blue Jays
Pitcher: Jhonathan Diaz, Boston Red Sox

Short-Season A
Hitter: Tyler Freeman, Cleveland Indians
Pitcher: Jaison Vilera, New York Mets

Rookie
Hitter: Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher: Joey Cantillo, San Diego Padres

NL Notes: Harper, D-Backs, Buchholz, Senzel, DeGrom

By Jeff Todd | September 14, 2018 at 12:31am CDT

As ever, there’s plenty of water-cooler chatter about the eventual destination of Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, who — had you not heard? — is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. Particularly for fans of a Nats organization that is just weeks away from wrapping up a brutally disappointing campaign, it’s a subject of much attention. So eyebrows were raised recently at comments from Harper and, especially, club president of baseball ops/GM Mike Rizzo that could be interpreted as hinting at a reunion. In an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), Harper at least acknowledged a reunion is possible, saying that “it’s going to be an exciting future for the Nationals, and we’ll see if I’m in those plans.” Innocuous enough, to be sure, but perhaps the line could be interpreted as a wink toward contract talks. As for Rizzo, Chris Lingebach of 106.7 The Fan rounded things up. Those interested in parsing the words fully should click the link, but the key phrase at issue from Rizzo is his statement that he “won’t discuss [negotiations with Harper’s camp] until there’s something to announce.” Did the tight-lipped, hard-nosed GM tip his hand? It’s at most an arguable point.

From this vantage point, there’s enough here to make you think, but hardly a clear indication as to how Harper’s fascinating free agency will turn out. Here’s the latest from the National League:

The Diamondbacks had held a strong position in the postseason race for much of the season, but as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, they’re now left hoping for a memorable late-season comeback to get in. “[B]reakdowns occurring in every facet of their game,” Piecoro writes, have spurred a ghastly 4-16 run that has reversed the team’s fortunes. Unfortunately, odds are that the Arizona club will head back to the drawing board at season’s end — while watching two significant players (A.J. Pollock and lefty Patrick Corbin) hit the open market. Still, it’s notable that the club has largely followed up on its successful 2017 campaign, as the thought in some quarters entering the year was that there wasn’t really enough talent to keep pace.
As is also covered in the above-linked piece, the D-Backs suffered an unwelcome blow in advance of tonight’s loss when they were forced to scratch righty Clay Buchholz. The veteran hurler has been an immense asset for Arizona, throwing 98 1/3 innings of 2.01 ERA ball since joining the club in mid-season as a minor-league signee. He’s now headed to Phoenix for testing, though the hope still seems to be that he’ll return this year. Regardless, it’s unfortunate news for the team but even more disappointing for the 34-year-old, who has dealt with plenty of health problems of late and will be reentering the open market at season’s end.
It has long been wondered what the Reds Baseball America points outwill do when they are ready to call up top prospect Nick Senzel, who’s blocked at his natural position of third base. We may be seeing the hints of an answer; as , Senzel is listed as an outfielder in the organization’s instructional league roster. That hardly guarantees anything, of course, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Senzel — who’s opportunity for a late-2018 callup was taken by a finger injury — come into camp in 2019 looking to crack the roster in the corner outfield. Just how it’ll all play out, though, remains to be seen.
Speaking of top prospects … among his many notes today, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes that the Mets took a targeted approach to discussions with other teams regarding ace righty Jacob deGrom. As Heyman puts it, the New York organization “focused” on the handful of clubs it deemed to have assets worth haggling over. When those teams weren’t willing to give up their best young assets, talks sputtered. Heyman cites “the Blue Jays, Braves, Padres, Yankees, and perhaps to a lesser extent the Brewers” as clubs that were engaged. But the ultra-premium prospects and young MLB players in those organizations simply weren’t on offer. It’s hard to argue with the Mets’ rationale; deGrom reached a new level this season, after all, and certainly shouldn’t be parted with by a major-market club for less than a compelling return.

NL West Notes: Boxberger, D-backs, Padres, Giants

By Steve Adams | September 12, 2018 at 7:40pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have elected to not only remove Brad Boxberger from the closer’s role but also to do away with set bullpen roles entirely for the remainder of the season, manager Torey Lovullo explained to reporters this week (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). Rather than deploy a set closer (Boxberger) and setup man (Archie Bradley), the D-backs’ late-inning decisions will be determined primarily based on matchups. Boxberger, Bradley, Andrew Chafin, Brad Ziegler and T.J. McFarland will be among the matchup options sharing late-inning duties, per Piecoro. The 30-year-old Boxberger has a 4.41 ERA and has averaged five walks per nine innings this season, but he’s also racked up 32 saves and fanned 68 hitters in just 49 innings of work. He’s struggled in particular as of late, surrendering a dozen runs in his past 11 2/3 innings of work. Boxberger will be arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason after earning $1.85MM in 2018.

Luis Urias Unlikely To Return In 2018 After Hamstring Injury

By Jeff Todd | September 12, 2018 at 11:36am CDT

The Padres do not expect recently promoted infield prospect Luis Urias to return to action this season after suffering a hamstring injury last night, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports. Though the full extent of the injury isn’t yet known, San Diego skipper Andy Green says it already seems “doubtful” Urias will make it back in 2018.

Clearly, with just over two weeks left to play, there isn’t a lot of time remaining to make it back onto the field. Most importantly, the Friars will want to be sure not to push a critical young player too hard at this late stage of a noncompetitive season.

Urias won’t turn 22 until next June, but he forced his way onto the MLB roster recently with another quality showing in the upper minors. In his 533 Triple-A plate appearances this season, Urias hit a career-high eight home runs and slashed an impressive .296/.398/.447.

Of course, Urias hasn’t been quite as impressive in his very first attempt at major-league pitching. In a dozen games, he has produced a .208/.264/.354 slash with two home runs and an uncharacteristic mix of ten strikeouts and just three walks.

That limited showing doesn’t detract from Urias’s lofty promise. And it’s certainly not going to prevent him from competing for a MLB job in camp next year. Still, that less-than-compelling output matters somewhat to his near-future roster outlook. Particularly if the hammy tweak sidelines Urias the rest of the way, he arguably will not have shown enough to lock up a starting role in advance of Spring Training.

NL West Notes: Jansen, Myers, Giants

By Mark Polishuk | September 9, 2018 at 1:33pm CDT

Kenley Jansen’s latest bout with an irregular heartbeat left the Dodgers closer more irritated than scared, he tells ESPN.com’s Ramona Shelburne. Jansen had dealt with similar heart issues in 2011 and 2012, the latter resulting in heart surgery. After the problem arose again last month, his immediate reaction was that “I thought my season was over. I’m like, man, f— this. Not again. We’re trying to go back to the World Series. I have a chance to win another Trevor Hoffman award. Man!” Shelburne’s piece details how Jansen dealt with the heart problem that evening, and how he has been trying to balance staying healthy while also making an earlier-than-expected return to the field.

Interestingly, Jansen noted that he likely wouldn’t be playing if the Dodgers weren’t in contention. “To tell you the truth, I wanted to have the second surgery right now so we could just fix it and I’d know everything was OK,” Jansen said. “But I know what an opportunity our team has this year and my responsibilities here.” That second surgery could come after the season is over, though while Jansen continues to play, he is sitting out the Dodgers’ road series against the Rockies this weekend on doctors’ recommendation, as his last two irregular heartbeat episodes occurred while in Denver’s thin air. Jansen is hopeful, however, that he would be cleared should the Dodgers end up facing the Rockies in a postseason series.

Here’s more baseball news from around the Golden State…

With Wil Myers still very much a work in progress at third base, “the Padres seem to be leaning toward moving” Myers between positions in 2019 rather than make him a full-time option at the hot corner, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. Myers has spent much of his six MLB seasons at first base or right field, though he has also played multiple games as a center fielder (33 starts), left fielder (28 starts) and third baseman (18). Of course, he has yet to provide much defensive value wherever he has played, though if Myers is at least a passable option at multiple positions, the Padres can shift him around the diamond every day while opening up playing time for others. For his part, Myers feels he is making progress at his latest position and feels he can still contribute to the team as a primary third baseman.
The Giants should explore the idea of trading Madison Bumgarner this offseason, ESPN’s Buster Olney opines. Bumgarner is controlled through the 2019 season via a $12MM club option that is sure to be exercised, and the Giants would certainly get a good return for even just one year of the star lefty’s services. Of course, the team declined offers for Bumgarner at the trade deadline and has given every indication that it plans to contend in 2019. Olney, however, sees parallels between the Giants and the Phillies teams from earlier this decade, who suffered for holding onto a veteran core too long rather than recognize that a rebuild was necessary. Keeping Bumgarner next season or extending him may not make sense, Olney feels, for a Giants team that could soon face its own rebuild.

Padres To Promote Francisco Mejia

By Steve Adams | September 4, 2018 at 4:02pm CDT

The Padres are set to promote top prospect Francisco Mejia from Triple-A El Paso, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell adds that while Mejia could eventually be shifted back and forth between catching and the outfield, he’s been catching in El Paso this season and will be used as a catcher in the month of September with the Padres.

Mejia, 22, was the lone prospect traded from Cleveland to San Diego in the July deal that sent both Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to the Indians. He’s long rated as one of the game’s top overall prospects and entered the 2018 campaign as a consensus top 20 all-around minor leaguer. While he had a solid but unspectacular run with the Indians’ Triple-A affiliate this season, he’s exploded for a .328/.364/.582 slash with seven homes, eight doubles and a triple in just 132 PAs with the Padres’ top affiliate since the trade.

The arrival of Mejia in San Diego will give the Padres a pair of catchers who were highly touted as prospects, though certainly Austin Hedges’ bat remains a work in progress. Hedges has improve upon last year’s overall production but is still hitting just .239/.292/.422 through 271 trips to the plate in 2018. Hedges is regarded as a premier defender behind the dish, though, even if his 22 percent caught-stealing rate is uncharacteristically low in 2018. The 26-year-old ranks as one of the game’s better pitch framers and sits 10th among MLB catchers in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average this season, even in spite of his unusual throwing troubles.

The San Diego front office likely views the presence of both Hedges and Mejia as a good problem to have. Neither will be expensive in 2019. Mejia, of course, will be a pre-arbitration player while Hedges will receive a small but notable bump in pay as a Super Two player in arbitration. It’s possible that the pair could shoulder the bulk of the Padres’ work behind the plate for years to come, with Hedges serving as a glove-first option with power but middling OBP skills, while Mejia provides a bat-first option with a terrific arm but a lesser all-around defensive reputation.

Mejia does already have a slight bit of MLB experience under his belt, having logged 12 games with the Indians from 2017-18 (just one this year). He’s totaled just over a month of big league service time and will finish out the season with roughly 60 days of big league service. That’ll keep him from reaching Super Two status in arbitration if he’s in the big leagues to stay. Currently, he projects to reach arbitration eligibility following the 2021 season, and he’d reach the open market as a free agent following the 2024 season. Further time spent in the minors could yet push that trajectory back, but it appears that he’ll be given the opportunity to prove that he’s learned all he has to learn at the minor league level.

Francisco Mejia Drops Lawsuit Against Big League Advance

By Jeff Todd | September 4, 2018 at 11:55am CDT

Padres prospect Francisco Mejia has dropped his lawsuit against the prospect investment firm known as Big League Advance, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick recently reported. He had filed suit in April seeking to be released from his contractual relationship with BLA.

Mejia, who is considered a top-flight prospect, was dealt from the Indians to the Padres over the summer. He has seen only brief MLB time, and hasn’t yet cracked the big leagues with the Friars, but has turned in a strong .293/.338/.471 hitting performance at the Triple-A level this season.

Accordingly, Mejia still hasn’t earned much money in the majors but could well turn into a high-dollar player. With the end of this litigation, Big League Advance stands to receive a ten-percent cut of Mejia’s MLB earnings — the amount that the sides had evidently agreed upon in a series of contracts. To achieve that interest in Mejia’s future, BLA provided him a total of $360K while he was playing in the low minors.

Whatever one thinks of the business model, former MLB hurler and BLA CEO Michael Schwimer undeniably comes away from this episode with a clear win. Mejia not only disclaimed his prior accusations in his statement, but apologized to and even issued a glowing endorsement of Big League Advance.

Had this lawsuit been meritorious, it might have posed some problems for BLA’s burgeoning business. Instead, the outfit will not only continue to draw a piece of the salary of contracted players who are already in the majors, but will perhaps increasingly factor in the ever-evolving transactional landscape.

As ever, most minor-leaguers play on meager incomes. While some achieve major bonuses at the outset of their careers, the majority get by without the benefit of significant up-front cash. Though early-career extensions increasingly represent a potential source of relatively early-in-time income, that’s a route that’s only available to the highest-regarded talent and that also means sacrificing earning upside.

Given those factors, it is not difficult to see how BLA might occupy some of the space here. Indeed, so long as the business is fairly operated, it may function in effect to spread the benefits of MLB earnings to many young players, only some of whom will achieve the full and final promise of millions in salary, without capping any individual player’s future earning capacity. (Needless to say, a sizeable chunk of change will also be expected to flow to BLA and its investors.)

There are many ways in which this approach could impact the broader market, too, if BLA (and, potentially, competitors) increasingly provide up-front money to pre-MLB players. It’s also a somewhat murky and potentially complicated contractual situation to introduce, particularly if a player’s interests ultimately fall out of alignment with the financial priorities of BLA. Needless to say, it’s a fascinating new realm to keep an eye on.

Clayton Richard To Undergo Knee Surgery

By Steve Adams | August 28, 2018 at 7:45pm CDT

Padres lefty Clayton Richard was placed on the disabled list earlier today due to inflammation in his left knee, and manager Andy Green now tells reporters that Richard is headed for season-ending surgery to alleviate discomfort that he’s pitched through since April (Twitter links via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee).

Richard, 35 next month, pitched to a respectable 4.43 ERA (4.18 FIP, 4.06 xFIP) with 6.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.80 HR/9 and a 57.9 percent ground-ball rate through 124 first-half innings this season. However, his 2018 campaign has gone off the rails in a miserable second half that has seen him (perhaps literally) limp to an 8.57 ERA with 4.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, a whopping 2.80 HR/9 and a 53.5 percent grounder rate. Richard is far from a flamethrower, but a look at his season-long velocity charts show that his fastball has dropped in the month of August as well.

Richard is earning a $3MM base salary in 2018 as part of the two-year, $6MM extension he signed with the Padres late last season, and he earned a pair of $250K bonuses for crossing the 125-inning and 150-inning thresholds. He’s under contract for the 2019 season as well at that same $3MM rate and will once again have up to $1.5MM worth of incentives available to him — though he’d need to reach the 200-inning mark for the first time since 2012 in order to do so.

The Padres will likely look to Richard as a stabilizing innings eater in their rotation once again in 2019. While some of their promising young arms have begun to surface at the MLB level — Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer and Jacob Nix are among the team’s prospects to debut this season — there’s still a need for a bridging presence while that trio looks to establish themselves. Meanwhile, promising arms like MacKenzie Gore, Chris Paddack, Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill, Adrian Morejon and Michel Baez (among others) continue to work their way toward San Diego as the Padres’ front office eyes aims to compile a homegrown core of arms around which to build.

Padres Promote Luis Urias

By Jeff Todd | August 28, 2018 at 4:41pm CDT

Aug. 28: The Padres have formally announced Urias’ promotion to the Majors. Asuaje has been optioned to Triple-A to open a spot on the active roster. San Diego has also placed lefty Clayton Richard on the 10-day disabled due to inflammation in his left knee and activated right-hander Colten Brewer from the disabled list in his place.

Aug. 27: The Padres are set to promote highly regarded infield prospect Luis Urias, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He is expected to debut tomorrow.

Urias, 21, is widely considered one of the crown jewels of a Padres system that, the organization has long hoped, will usher in a golden age of baseball in San Diego. There’s a clear consensus that he’s one of the most promising young players in baseball, with outlets such as Fangraphs (#22), MLB.com (#22), and Baseball America (#29) rating him among the game’s thirty or so best prospects.

There’s a lot to like about Urias’s potential as a hitter. He features a rare combination of plate discipline and contact ability that has allowed him to hit over .300 while carrying nearly a .400 OBP over his five minor-league seasons. Power isn’t a strong suit, though Urias has increased his home-run output over recent campaigns and this year has put the ball over the fence eight times in 533 plate appearances.

It seems fair to note, too, that Urias has the kind of underlying skills that could allow him to come into more power at the game’s highest level. In recent years, we’ve seen several players — Jose Altuve, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez among them, to take a few famous examples — develop surprising pop after reaching the bigs. Whether or not Urias is destined for that kind of outcome obviously isn’t yet known, but it seems notable that MLB.com credits him with more raw power than his outcomes indicate while BA cites Urias’s impressive exit velocity.

To be sure, Urias would likely generate even greater excitement if he was considered a future shortstop. Still, he is also valued for his defensive potential. Most evaluators indicate that he’ll likely be a high-quality defender at second base. It doesn’t hurt that he’s considered at least capable of playing shortstop as well; indeed, Acee says that Urias will get some time there upon his arrival.

For the Padres, this promotion offers an opportunity to get a look at a player who’s expected to hold down an important role for years to come. Urias will not accrue enough service time this year to put himself on track for future Super Two status. If he stays in the majors from here on out, he won’t be eligible for free agency until at least 2025. Picking up thirty-plus days of MLB action will make it a bit harder for the Friars to hold Urias down to open the 2019 season in hopes of extending the team’s control rights.

If he shows well upon his arrival, Urias will likely enter camp next year as the odds-on favorite to open the season as the regular second baseman. San Diego has not received much production from its options at the position thus far in 2018, after all, so the organization is no doubt anxious to plug in a permanent piece. Jose Pirela, Carlos Asuaje, and Cory Spangenberg have all failed to take advantage of opportunities at second this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Injury Notes: Shoemaker, Cubs, Ozuna, Pineda, Villanueva

By Steve Adams | August 22, 2018 at 11:12pm CDT

Angels righty Matt Shoemaker underwent forearm surgery earlier this summer — an operation that repaired the pronator teres tendon and also decompressed a nerve in his right arm. While that sounded ominous and called the remainder of his season into question, Shoemaker has thrown a pair of simulated games recently and tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he’s aiming to return to the Angels in September. Shoemaker has been battling injuries for much of his career and has only pitched once in the Majors since last June. As he explains it, the tendon damage in his arm was not initially revealed on an MRI and was not detected during a 2017 operation because that surgery was performed a few inches away from the tendon damage. It took exploratory surgery for doctors to discover a “split tendon,” which Shoemaker believes to have been the root of his troubles.

Some more injury news from around the league…

The Cubs put Addison Russell on the disabled list today as a corresponding move for the activation of newly acquired Daniel Murphy. As MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat writes, the official announcement stated that a sprained left index finger was prompting the DL placement, but Russell has also been bothered by inflammation in his right shoulder. He’ll get some needed rest from the current DL stint, though there’s no indication that he’s expected to miss a prolonged period of time. There’s less certainty regarding closer Brandon Morrow, Muskat continues, explaining that the right-hander is headed for more tests on his ailing right biceps Friday and isn’t expected to return until September. Morrow has been sidelined since mid-July.
The Cardinals announced today that left fielder Marcell Ozuna has been placed on the disabled list due to inflammation in his right shoulder. It’s a tough loss for the Cards, even if it’s only an abbreviated stint, as Ozuna had hit safely in 22 of his past 27 games, batting a combined .315/.356/.532 with six homers, four doubles and a triple in that span of 118 plate appearances. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Ozuna’s shoulder has been problematic dating all the way back to last season. The Cardinals were aware of the issue when trading for him, Goold writes, and the team has tried to limit Ozuna’s throwing outside of a game setting throughout the season in order to lessen the stress on said shoulder.
Michael Pineda is slated to make two more starts for the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate before joining the big league club in September, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports. Signed to a two-year, $10MM deal that pays him $8MM in 2019, Pineda is in the final stages of recovering from 2017 Tommy John surgery and is expected to be an important piece in Minnesota’s rotation next season. Manager Paul Molitor wouldn’t rule out giving Pineda a start or two in September but said he doesn’t plan to get him too stretched out. Berardino suggests that Pineda won’t top 75 pitches in any appearance this year.
Padres third baseman Christian Villanueva has been diagnosed with a fractured finger and is headed to the 10-day disabled list, tweets AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Villanueva wasn’t in today’s lineup due to some swelling in his hand after taking a tough grounder yesterday, and further testing appears to have revealed the fracture. A corresponding move will be announced tomorrow. It’s not clear how long Villanueva will be out. The 27-year-old Villanueva has utterly demolished left-handed pitching this season, hitting at an absurd .336/.392/.736 clip with 14 home runs through 113 plate appearances when holding the platoon advantage. Unfortunately, he’s mustered a feeble .189/.255/.319 slash against right-handed opponents.

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