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Olney On Carmona, Trades, Heath Bell

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A few notes from ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider required)…

  • Is it hasty to consider the Indians sellers for 2010?  Olney writes of rave reviews for Fausto Carmona, who he believes could transform the team's pennant hopes.  An above-average offense, good years from Jake Westbrook and Justin Masterson…you never know.
  • Olney hears there's "only a trickle of trade talk going on."  One GM believes that's because there's not much money available and there are still a few decent free agents out there.
  • Olney spoke to execs who believe the Padres will wait to trade Heath Bell, to drive up the price and give the team a shot at winning early.  Something to consider about Bell: MLBTR reader Jeff Hainey recently reminded me that while Bell is under team control for two years, his 2011 salary could potentially approach $10MM.  That second year of control wouldn't be terribly appealing to the Twins, who will be paying Joe Nathan $11.25MM.

Odds & Ends: Royals, Dodgers, Mauer, Reyes

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Sunday night linkage..

Odds & Ends: Cardinals, Brewers, Willis, Guardado

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Links for Sunday….

Heath Bell’s Trade Value

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4:59pm: Former Padres GM Kevin Towers told Jim Bowden of FOX Sports that he would ask for Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere or Angel Morales from the Twins in return for Bell if he were still running the Padres (Twitter link). Baseball America ranked the three outfielders first, fifth and eighth among Twins prospects heading into the season.

FRIDAY, 1:34pm: Whether it happens now or in July, the Padres are likely to entertain trade offers for their All-Star closer. Heath Bell has value and the Padres don't appear ready to contend for a playoff spot so GM Jed Hoyer will presumably consider trading the right-hander. The Twins are eyeing Bell, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today and more teams will want relievers by late July. 

Bell compares favorably to the group of relievers that signed the biggest free agent contracts this offseason. He had a lower walk rate (3.1 BB/9) and more saves (42) than Jose Valverde, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney and Mike Gonzalez and posted a higher strikeout rate than everyone except Gonzalez (Bell: 10.2 K/9, Gonzalez: 10.9 K/9).

Valverde, Lyon, Rodney and Gonzalez all signed multi-year deals worth $11MM or more, but Bell makes just $4MM this year. Next year, he's in line for a raise via arbitration if, as expected, his club tenders him a deal. Bell's ability and salary make him a valuable commodity on the trade market, but it's not clear what that translates into for the Padres.

When the Orioles traded George Sherrill last summer, they were working with a similar player. Sherrill was making less ($2.75MM) and the Dodgers acquired him midseason, but he was nonetheless effective, cheap and controllable through 2011, like Bell is now.

The Orioles acquired Josh Bell – now ranked by Baseball America as the organization's number two prospect – in the Sherrill trade. The third base prospect has "above-average power and a good approach" and projects to be Baltimore's third baseman before long, according to BA. Given their closer's contract status and ability, the Padres have every reason to ask for a top prospect in any trade.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Jays, Bell, Davis, Dunn

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On this date in 2002, the Yankees Entertainment and Sports Network launched. Although the regional network barely broke even that year, YES has gone on to generate millions in revenue, much of which goes right into the Yankees' pockets. As recently as 2008, there was talk that the network was worth more than the team itself.

After you wrap your head around that, here are some links to check out from around the baseball blogosphere…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

Twins Eyeing Heath Bell

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The Twins are scouting Heath Bell extensively for a possible trade, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Closer Joe Nathan may have to undergo Tommy John surgery, so the Twins are looking at possible replacements, including Bell and Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor.

The Twins won't necessarily have to make a trade at all, though. Nathan will throw Saturday, Sunday or Monday and the Twins will have a clearer sense of his ability to pitch with a torn ulnar collateral ligament after his bullpen session.

Bell led the National League with 42 saves last year. He posted 10.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 69.2 innings. The 32-year-old righty makes $4MM this year and won't be a free agent until after 2011.

Adrian Gonzalez Would Accept Deferred Money

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According to a report by Dan Hayes of the North County Times, Adrian Gonzalez would accept deferred money in a contract offer from the Padres, as long as the offer was at market value.

However, that is a confusing bit of information. Market value is likely starting with Mark Teixeira and his eight-year, $180MM contract. So would San Diego merely have to reach this number, but some could be deferred? Or would the Padres need to exceed this to make up for the deferred money?

More to the point, it is far from clear that San Diego can afford Teixeira-type money, even if the money is deferred. But it is worth remembering, especially if talks start to heat up, the Padres might have a little extra cushion there.

Olney On Howard, Pujols, Adrian, Chris Young

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The latest from ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider required)…

  • Olney explains why the Phillies' internal discussions about offering Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols were accurate and newsworthy: "When you have confirmed information that the Phillies have discussed internally an avenue through which how they might pursue the best player in baseball — and you know exactly who said what to whom, and how sturdy the intent was — that is news."  Olney's information should be trusted despite the Phillies' denials, but keep in mind that this was simply one club's internal discussion.
  • Certain talent evaluators believe Adrian Gonzalez is so valuable given his contract that the Padres may not find a comparable return.  Some of Olney's sources believe the Padres should keep Gonzalez into 2011.
  • Olney's hearing Chris Young's velocity is back in its customary 87-88 mph range.  As the best-paid Padre and an impending free agent, Young has to be considered a midseason trade candidate.  He is earning $6.25MM this year with an $8.5MM club option for '11.

Odds & Ends: Nats, Bell, Mahay, Smoltz

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Sunday night linkage..

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wonders if money might be a factor in the Nationals' starting shortstop battle.  Ian Desmond is making a compelling case for the starting job but the club might be unwilling to put Cristian Guzman and his $8MM contract on the bench.
  • Padres closer Heath Bell told Tom Krasovic of AOL Fanhouse that he would be agreeable to signing an extension that is budget-friendly for the Padres.  San Diego avoided arbitration with Bell in January when they agreed to a one-year, $4MM pact.
  • It appears that reliever Ron Mahay won't be signing with the Mets, writes Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News.  A source tells Rubin that there's no way Mahay would accept a minor league deal.  Meanwhile, a separate source says that the Mets won't offer a major league contract.
  • In his latest mailbag, a reader suggests to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro that the Marlins should sign John Smoltz.  Frisaro says that the Marlins have no interest in the 42-year-old as the 26-year-old Josh Johnson is a good influence on the team's young pitchers.

Rosenthal On Beckett, Lee, Gardner

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports examines the Red Sox' negotiations with Josh Beckett and the Yankees' center field decision in a pair of new columns. Let's check out some noteworthy points:

  • Rosenthal points to the lack of top starting pitching talent available in the next two or three free agent classes, suggesting that this could make signing Beckett more important for the Red Sox.
  • Although the Sox generally don't like committing long-term contracts to pitchers, Rosenthal opines that keeping Beckett might be less risky than losing him, due to the lack of viable replacements.
  • The other top starting pitcher whose contract expires this season is Cliff Lee, who "most baseball people agree" will go to the highest bidder. That may end up being the Yankees, who could use Lee to replace Javier Vazquez.
  • At least four teams (the Royals, Reds, Padres, and White Sox) attempted to acquire Brett Gardner this winter, hoping to start him in center field.
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