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Padres, Angels Showing Interest In Nathan Eovaldi

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The Padres and Angels are both seeking starting pitching, with the two sides showing interest in top remaining free agent starter Nathan Eovaldi, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI. Bradford adds that one other unnamed AL East team is interested in Eovaldi. Meanwhile, Robert Murray of Fansided reports that the Padres are also among the teams “strongly in the mix” for free agent Johnny Cueto.

The Angels have a fairly solid five-man rotation on paper, but since Shohei Ohtani’s been around they’ve tended to opt for a six-man rotation. As such, the addition of Eovaldi to stabilize the rotation makes plenty of sense. Ohtani and Tyler Anderson look set to occupy the first two spots in their rotation, with Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez rounding out the five. That young trio has shown plenty of promise and the addition of a veteran like Eovaldi would give them a very formidable group of starters to go into the 2023 season with. Even if they don’t wind up signing Eovaldi, the Halos are keen to add more pitching, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com, and certainly could make a play for some of the other remaining options on the market.

For the Padres, they currently have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell locked in to three spots in their rotation. They’ve indicated that they plan to start Nick Martinez and new signing Seth Lugo in their rotation in 2023, which would make the need for a starter less obvious. However, Lugo has been far more effective as a reliever over his career and hasn’t made a start since 2020, while Martinez only made ten last year, so there’s a little bit of uncertainty there.

As for the unnamed AL East team, the Yankees would appear an unlikely suitor given their needs in left-field and recent signing of Carlos Rodon while the Blue Jays signed Chris Bassitt and don’t seem to be focused on the rotation. Hitters appear to be more of a pressing need for the Rays, who signed Zach Eflin earlier in the off-season and have the makings of a strong rotation as things stand. That leaves the Orioles – who have been vocal about wanting to add starting pitching this winter – and a return to the Red Sox – who have an uncertain rotation picture – as the obvious options. Bradford’s report does note that the Red Sox do not appear to be the front-runner for Eovaldi, although that doesn’t preclude them from being the AL East team interested.

With most of the starting pitchers off the board, Eovaldi is the top remaining option. MLBTR ranked him as the 23rd best free agent this winter, and predicted a two-year, $34MM contract. He’s shown tremendous consistency over the past three years in Boston, pitching to ERAs of 3.72, 3.75 and 3.87 over 340 innings. Shoulder and back issues restricted him to 109 1/3 innings in 2022, but he’s been a dependable starter when fit. In 2022, he struck out batters at slightly above-average 22.4% clip against a walk rate of 4.4%.

The Red Sox did offer Eovaldi a qualifying offer at the end of the season, so any team (outside of Boston) that signed him would be giving up draft picks. The Padres already forfeited their second and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft, as well as $1MM in international bonus money, for signing Xander Bogaerts. So if they added Eovaldi, they’d be giving up their third and sixth-highest picks in the draft as well. The Angels would have to forfeit their second-highest pick, as well as take a $500K hit in international bonus money.

In San Diego’s case, it would seem to make it more likely they’d go after someone like Cueto, who wouldn’t require any draft pick forfeiture. Of course, the Padres are squarely in win-now mode and may view draft picks as a necessary cost to put their team over the top, but given Eovaldi will surely command a multi-year deal with a strong AAV, as well as the draft pick forfeiture and their less-obvious need for rotation help, it’d be a surprise if they won a bidding war for the veteran’s services.

Instead, Cueto could make a lot of sense to deepen their starting pitching stocks. Cueto, 37 in February, tossed 158 1/3 innings of 3.35 ERA ball for the White Sox in 2022, his best season since finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting for the Giants back in 2016. While his strikeout rate was the worst of his 15-year big league career, Cueto offset that by posting a strong 5.1% walk rate, and keeping the ball in the park far more often. That came after posting a 4.59 ERA over 194 innings over the previous three seasons.

It seems likely Cueto will land a one-year deal, which could help the Padres as a means to insure them against Lugo and/or Martinez needing to be moved back to the bullpen. He also brings a wealth of experience and won a World Series with Kansas City in 2015. That could well appeal to a San Diego team determined to take the next step and win a championship.

Padres Sign Aaron Brooks To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have added some pitching depth, signing right hander Aaron Brooks to a minor league deal, per Chris Hilburn-Treckle of Baseball America. Brooks was a free agent after being released by the Cardinals at the end of the season.

The 32-year-old pitched 9 1/3 innings for St Louis last season, working to a 7.71 ERA in that short stint. He worked mostly as a starter at Triple-A, making 13 starts and two relief appearances for a 5.56 ERA across 59 1/3 innings.

He’s bounced around the leagues a bit since making his debut for the Royals back in 2016, getting into big league games for Oakland, St Louis and Baltimore since. All told, he owns a 6.55 ERA across 180 innings in the majors. While that’s come with a respectable 6.8% walk rate, his 16.1% strikeout rate is comfortably below league average while his 44.1 HardHit% also sits the wrong side of the league average.

Brooks throws a low-90s fastball, and mixes that in with a slider and changeup, and an occasional curveball. He’ll provide a bit of minor league pitching depth for San Diego, and should he find some success, can be controlled for at least the next three seasons.

Padres Sign Seth Lugo

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Dec. 22: The Padres have officially announced Lugo’s signing.

Dec. 19, 1:33pm: Lugo will be guaranteed a bit more than $15MM on the contract and can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season, tweets Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Heyman adds that the deal pays Lugo $7.5MM in 2023 before he’ll decide on a $7.5MM player option for 2024.

1:13pm: The Padres are finalizing a contract with free-agent righty Seth Lugo, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets the two sides have agreed to a deal. The Post’s Joel Sherman adds that the Padres plan for Lugo to join the starting rotation. San Diego and the division-rival Dodgers were reportedly the two likeliest landing spots for the Ballengee Group client.

Lugo, 33, has been a reliable member of the Mets’ bullpen for the past two seasons but has ample starting experience in his career and had been hoping to land with a team that would give him an opportunity to start. The Padres can likely offer just such an opportunity, as the fifth spot in their rotation behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Nick Martinez is currently unsettled. Left-hander and former top prospect Adrian Morejon had previously been seen as a front-runner for that spot, but he’ll now act as a depth option alongside minor league hurlers Ryan Weathers, Jay Groome, Pedro Avila and Reiss Knehr.

Over the past two seasons in the Mets’ bullpen, Lugo has turned in a 3.56 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate and a 44.4% ground-ball rate. His average four-seamer has clocked in at 94.4 mph in that time, and while it’s possible that velocity will dip a bit when working in longer stints, Lugo has far more secondary offerings than the standard reliever. In addition to that four-seamer, he’ll also throw a plus curveball, a sinker, an occasional slider and a more seldom-used changeup.

That repertoire of four, if not five pitches, surely emboldened some teams to consider him as a potential addition to the rotation. Lugo has made 38 starts in his career — all of which has been spent with the Mets to this point — and once looked as though he might have a chance to solidify himself on the starting staff in Queens. However, a “slight” tear of his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament back in 2017 derailed his season.

The tear was minimal enough that surgery was not recommended, however. Lugo received a platelet-rich plasma injection, opted for a rest-and-rehab approach, and returned to the mound as a reliever in 2018. By the time required surgery to remove a bone spur from the elbow in 2021, his surgeon remarked that he was “impressed with how [the UCL] wound up” (link via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo).

With a clean bill of health and some quality recent results out of the ’pen, Lugo becomes an interesting upside candidate in the fifth spot of the Padres’ rotation. Moving him to the bullpen will always be there as a safety net, but Lugo has a 4.35 ERA in 194 career innings as a starter, and those numbers are skewed by a disastrous showing in the shortened 2020 season. From 2016-18, Lugo tossed 168 1/3 innings as a starter and recorded a more palatable 4.06 ERA. He hasn’t seen an enormous spike in opponents’ productivity when facing them a second or third time in a game; in fact, his opponents’ numbers have actually worsened when facing him a second/third time — though it’s unlikely that trend will continue.

Lugo’s $7.5MM annual salary will push the Padres’ 2023 payroll north of $240MM, while the team’s projected luxury-tax ledger will jump just north of $262MM, per Roster Resource. The Padres are currently lined up to exceed the tax threshold for a third consecutive season. As such, they’re paying a 50% penalty on the first $20MM by which they exceed the $233MM first-tier barrier, and a 62% overage on the next $20MM. The Friars were already more than $20MM over the tax line, so they’ll pay a 62% overage on Lugo’s $7.5MM AAV — a sum of $4.65MM.

Such penalties are seemingly of little consequence to an ultra-aggressive Padres club that has succeeded in high-profile pursuits of Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Xander Bogaerts in the past six months alone. Owner Peter Seidler appears steadfastly committed to his “championship at all costs” mindset, even if that means spending a total of $12.15MM (salary and luxury hit combined) on a fifth starter while including the downside (for the team) of a 2024 player option.

It’s a nice deal for Lugo, who’ll command the same type of guarantee many setup men of his caliber receive in free agency — but with the opportunity to opt back into free agency a year from now if the rotation experiment works out. Even if Lugo is ultimately moved to the ’pen for one reason or another, so long as he continues at his prior pace with the Mets, he could even opt out and land a larger commitment as a pure reliever next winter. And, of course, if he ends up injured or sees his performance completely crater, he’ll have the security of a substantial salary already locked in for the 2024 season.

Padres Sign Matt Carpenter

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2:00pm: The Padres have officially announced the signing.

12:52pm: The Padres added some punch to their lineup Tuesday, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $12MM contract with veteran infielder/outfielder Matt Carpenter. Carpenter, a client of SSG Baseball, can opt out of the contract after the 2023 season by declining a 2024 player option. The contract pays Carpenter a $3MM signing bonus and $3.5MM salary for the 2023 campaign, and he’ll have to decide on a $5.5MM player option next winter. He can also reportedly earn $500K bonuses for reaching each of 300, 350, 400, 450, 500 and 550 plate appearances in both seasons of the contract.

Carpenter, who turned 37 years old last month, enjoyed one of the more remarkable rebound campaigns in recent memory this past season. A three-time All-Star with the Cardinals, Carpenter looked to be on the downswing when he posted a combined .176/.313/.291 batting line in 418 plate appearances with St. Louis from 2020-21.

Last offseason, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic detailed the manner in which Carpenter reinvented himself, taking a data-driven approach to hitting and enlisting feedback from the likes of Joey Votto, Matt Holliday and a private hitting coach as he revamped his swing and his entire approach at the plate. The Rangers were intrigued enough to sign him to a minor league contract.

We often see stories of veterans making changes late in their careers, but few have found the level of success enjoyed by Carpenter. After hitting .275/.379/.613 in 21 games with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate, Carpenter was released by Texas (oops) and signed a Major League deal with the Yankees, for whom he posted a borderline comical .305/.412/.727 slash. Carpenter mashed 15 home runs in just 154 plate appearances, and while he was surely aided to an extent by the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, he still popped six of those round-trippers and batted .253/.333/.506 on the road.

Simply put — and in rather stunning fashion — Carpenter was baseball’s best hitter on a rate basis in 2022 (min. 100 plate appearances). He led all of baseball in slugging percentage, isolated power (slugging minus batting average) and wRC+ (217), ranked second to only Aaron Judge in terms of on-base percentage, and posted the 12th-best batting average of any player in the game. Carpenter’s rate of “barreled” balls (as defined by Statcast) was elite, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both clocked in comfortably north of the league average. There’s no realistic way to expect him to sustain that pace, but Carpenter has clearly put himself back on the map as a viable big league slugger.

Unfortunately for both team and player, the revitalized Carpenter fouled a ball into his foot in early August, resulting in a fracture that wiped out the remainder of his regular season. A predictably rusty Carpenter jumped directly back onto the Yankees’ playoff roster but went just 1-for-12 with an alarming nine strikeouts between the ALDS and the ALCS.

With the Padres, Carpenter becomes the favorite for DH work, though the Yankees played him at both corner infield slots and in both corner outfield positions in 2022. He’s also logged more than 1900 innings at second base in his career, though defensive metrics on his limited work there in 2021 were unsightly, to say the least. Still, he could potentially serve as an option there in an emergency.

The agreement with Carpenter pushes the Padres to more than $246MM in actual cash payroll for the 2023 season and bumps their luxury-tax ledger to nearly $267MM, as projected by Roster Resource. The Padres are already well into the second tier of penalization and, given that they’re entering their third straight season over the luxury line, are being taxed at a 62% rate on every dollar in the second bracket ($253MM to $273MM). As such, Carpenter will cost them an additional $3.72MM in taxes for the 2023 campaign.

AJ Cassavell of MLB.com first reported the two sides had agreed to a deal with a 2024 player option. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the terms and financial details (Twitter links).

Padres, Pedro Severino Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres are in agreement on a split contract with catcher Pedro Severino, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The deal will pay him $1.95MM if he’s in the majors and contains an additional $550K in performance bonuses, according to Murray. Severino will not secure an immediate spot on the 40-man roster, according to Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Severino, 29, has appeared in the majors in each of the past eight seasons. He broke in as a depth player with the Nationals, suiting up in 35 combined games between 2015-17. The backstop got a fair amount of action over the next four seasons, which he split between the Nats and Orioles. While he struggled mightily during his final season in Washington, he posted respectable offensive numbers for a catcher during his three years in Baltimore.

From 2019-21, Severino hit .249/.315/.397 through 938 plate appearances. He connected on 29 home runs with roughly league average strikeout and walk numbers. Nevertheless, the Orioles non-tendered him in lieu of a projected $3.1MM arbitration salary last offseason.

While partially motivated by the forthcoming arrival of Adley Rutschman, the O’s decision also reflected Severino’s defensive shortcomings. Public metrics have pegged him as a well below-average defender behind the dish. He routinely rates as a worse than average pitch framer, per Statcast, which pegged him as 10 runs below par in that regard in 2021. Severino was behind the plate for 10 passed balls and 66 wild pitches in 883 innings during his final season with the Orioles. That was the second-highest total in MLB in both categories, and while the pitching staff surely shoulders some of the responsibility, it didn’t reflect especially well on his work as a receiver.

After being cut loose by Baltimore, he caught on with the Brewers on a $1.9MM free agent deal. Before the season started, Severino tested positive for the performance-enhancing drug Clomiphene. He attributed the result to an unintentional byproduct of fertility treatments he’d undergone in the Dominican Republic.

Severino was suspended 80 games. In the immediate aftermath of that ban, Milwaukee acquired Víctor Caratini from the Padres to pair with  Omar Narváez. The Brewers reinstated Severino in July, but he appeared in just eight games as the team’s #3 catcher before being designated him for assignment. He went unclaimed on waivers and played out the season at Triple-A Nashville, where he hit .308/.349/.496 with four homers over 126 plate appearances.

The right-handed hitter qualified for minor league free agency at year’s end. He finds a new landing spot in San Diego, the fourth organization of his career. The Friars presently have Austin Nola, Luis Campusano and Brett Sullivan (coincidentally part of the trade package for Caratini) as backstops on the 40-man roster. Severino slides in behind that group as a depth option.

Dodgers, Padres Among Teams Pursuing Seth Lugo

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Former Mets righty Seth Lugo has drawn interest from a wide range of clubs this winter, hoping to land an opportunity as a starting pitcher wherever he signs. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Dodgers and Padres are the likeliest landing spots at this point, though the Nationals have been involved to a lesser degree. Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, meanwhile, reported over the weekend that the Dodgers are in the mix for Lugo and would indeed likely build him up as a starter.

Between Los Angeles and San Diego, the latter has a clearer path to rotation innings, if the Padres indeed have interest in giving Lugo a look as a starting pitcher. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Nick Martinez are expected to occupy the top four spots in the rotation, but the No. 5 spot is generally unsettled. Former top prospect Adrian Morejon seems the likeliest option, but Ryan Weathers, Pedro Avila and Jay Groome are all on the 40-man roster as well.

Over in Los Angeles, it’s a slightly more crowded situation. Clayton Kershaw re-signed on a one-year deal, rejoining Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May in a projected rotation that was largely rounded out by the Dodgers’ recent signing of Noah Syndergaard. That said, both May and Gonsolin missed substantial time due to injury in 2022. May missed the first three-plus months recovering from 2020 Tommy John surgery, while Gonsolin was slowed late in the year by forearm troubles. He still made 24 starts and tallied 130 1/3 innings, but May logged just 30 regular-season frames and will probably have his workload monitored. Prospects like Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller and Michael Grove could provide depth even without an additional veteran signing, though.

As for the Nats, while Heyman suggests they’re no longer prominent players for Lugo, he’d be a similar signing to their recent addition of Trevor Williams. Beyond the fact that both Williams and Lugo pitched for the Mets this past season, both have been used as relievers recently but carry a starter’s repertoire, making them intriguing buy-low options in that regard. That said, the Nats now have Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Williams and youngsters MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli all as rotation options.

Lugo, 33, has been shuttled between the Mets’ rotation and bullpen multiple times in his career but has been primarily a reliever in 2021-22. He’s notched a solid 3.56 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 44% ground-ball rate in that time, averaging 94.4 mph with his fastball and generally sitting at or near the top of the league in terms of spin rate on his curveball. More broadly, Lugo has long been a quality member of the relief corps in Queens; he’s totaled exactly 300 innings out of the bullpen and boasts a 2.91 ERA in that time.

That said, Lugo has a four-seamer, sinker, curveball, slider and seldom-used changeup — a deep arsenal for a relief pitcher that could lend itself to a return to the rotation. He was hit hard working out of the rotation in the shortened 2020 season, but Lugo has a 4.35 ERA in 194 career innings as a starter. He’s missed more bats out of the bullpen, as one might expect, but his walk rate as a starter is slightly better than as a reliever and Lugo’s opponents haven’t seen dramatic spikes in production when facing him for a second or even third time in a game.

In addition to the Dodgers, Padres and Nats, Lugo has also reportedly drawn at least some degree of interest from the Angels, Red Sox and Tigers.

Padres, Max Schrock Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent infielder Max Schrock, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Icon client received an invitation to Major League Spring Training.

Shrock, 28, has spent parts of three seasons in the Majors, batting a combined .236/.292/.359 with four homers, seven doubles, a pair of triples, a 20.2% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate in 237 trips to the plate between the Cardinals and Reds. The lefty-swinging Schrock has played second base, all four corner positions and even tossed a few innings of mop-up relief in his big league career thus far, though second base has been far and away his most frequent position (with third base the only other spot he’s seen more than occasional playing time).

Though he had a rough stretch in his first look at Triple-A as a 23-year-old back in 2018, Schrock has been productive there in 2019, 2021 and 2022; in that trio of Triple-A seasons he’s slashed .284/.354/.411 through 514 plate appearances.

The Padres’ starting infield is likely set, with Manny Machado at third base, Xander Bogaerts at shortstop, Ha-Seong Kim at second base and Jake Cronenworth likely sliding to first base. Fernando Tatis’ Jr.’s eventual return will further deepen that mix, either pushing Kim to a utility role or creating a carousel where an infielder is slotting in at designated hitter most days. That said, the Padres’ bench is lacking in veteran options with MLB experience, so there could  be some backup roles up for grabs. In that sense, Schrock’s experience at multiple spots and his left-handed bat (on a team with more righty-swinging starters) could work to his benefit.

Padres Were Finalists For Chris Bassitt

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Chris Bassitt agreed to a three-year, $63MM deal with the Blue Jays earlier this week, but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Padres were in on the bidding and were one of the finalists. It’s not known if they made a formal offer or what it looked like, but the fact that they were somewhat close is nonetheless noteworthy.

The Padres were never really a financial powerhouse in the baseball world but they have changed that reputation in the past few years. They had never run an Opening Day payroll reaching $110MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, until they shot up to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM in 2022, effectively doubling their previous franchise highs. It appears that we still don’t know where their limit is, as they have continued spending this winter.

After aggressive overtures to Aaron Judge and Trea Turner were turned down, the club pivoted and gave Xander Bogaerts a deal worth $280MM over 11 years. That’s brought the club’s payroll up to $235MM for next year, per Roster Resource, already more than $20MM beyond last year’s mark.

Perhaps more importantly, the club’s competitive balance tax figure is at $255MM, already beyond the second luxury tax tier of $253MM. The Padres paid the CBT in both 2021 and 2022, setting them up to be third-time payors in 2023. There are escalating penalties for teams that pay in consecutive seasons, with the Padres already looking at a 50% tax on all spending beyond $233MM with greater penalties at the three subsequent tiers that go up in $20MM increments. Going beyond $253MM, which they are already lined up to do, comes with a 62% tax while going beyond $273MM would come with a 95% tax hit and see their top pick in next year’s draft moved back ten spots.

We don’t know what kind of offer the Padres made to Bassitt, but if it was competitive enough to get near what he accepted from the Jays, it was likely at least near the $20MM range in terms of average annual value. That shows that the club has at least some willingness to add that kind of money to their payroll and CBT figure. Signing Bassitt, or any other player, to a $20MM salary would lead to the Padres also paying over $12MM in taxes.

If they do have that kind of money to spend, the fact they are considering a rotation upgrade is not surprising. They have a strong front three in Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, but the back end is a bit less certain. The club re-signed Nick Martinez, who began 2022 in the rotation but was eventually bumped to the bullpen, where he proved to be more effective. He posted a 4.30 ERA as a starter and a 2.67 as a reliever. There’s also Adrian Morejon, though he’s an unknown commodity after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of 2021. He returned in 2022 and tossed 34 innings over 26 relief appearances, which is encouraging but might make it hard for him to suddenly jump to 150 innings or more next year. There’s also the long-term picture to consider, as both Snell and Darvish are set to reach free agency after 2023, leaving Musgrove as the only true building block of the rotation. Adding a reliable starter makes plenty of sense for now and for the future.

Though Bassitt got away, the Padres still have options in free agency. If they truly want to go wild with the spending, Carlos Rodón is the top free agent pitcher available. Aside from him, other options include Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard, Michael Wacha, Corey Kluber, Drew Rucinski, Johnny Cueto, Drew Smyly and others.

Padres, Anderson Espinoza Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres are in agreement with right-hander Anderson Espinoza on a minor league contract, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Friars have also agreed to non-roster pacts with outfielder Preston Tucker and reliever Drew Carlton, Sanders reports (Twitter link).

Espinoza returns to an organization where he spent a half-decade. Acquired from the Red Sox in the 2016 deadline deal that sent Drew Pomeranz to Boston, Espionza was regarded as a possible top-of-the-rotation starter at the time. Baseball America named him the #1 prospect in the San Diego system the following winter. Unfortunately, a series of injuries prevented the 6’0″ hurler from getting a chance to make good on that immense promise. Espinoza felt some elbow soreness at the start of the 2017 season, and he underwent Tommy John surgery. After two years of rehab, he suffered another elbow injury that required a second TJ procedure.

The successive surgeries cost him a staggering four years of game action, as he didn’t throw a single professional pitch from 2017-20. Midway through the ’21 campaign, San Diego dealt him to the Cubs for Jake Marisnick. Espinoza closed out the 2021 season in Double-A, but he briefly got to the majors for the first time this year.

Through seven relief appearances, he worked his first 18 1/3 MLB innings. He allowed 11 runs on 14 hits and a staggering 16 walks, and his work in the minors wasn’t much better. Between Chicago’s top two affiliates, Espinoza pitched to a 7.55 ERA in 70 1/3 frames. He fanned a decent 24.6% of opponents but walked a massive 13.9% of minor league batters faced. At year’s end, the Cubs placed him on waivers. He went unclaimed and qualified for minor league free agency.

Espinoza is certainly no longer regarded as an elite young talent, but there’s no harm for the Padres in rolling the dice to see if he can better hone his strike-throwing as he moves another year removed from the devastating series of injuries. He’s yet to turn 25 despite having been a well-known prospect for nearly a decade. The Venezuela native averaged just under 94 MPH on his fastball during his MLB work with the Cubs, relying on a low-80s breaking ball as his top secondary pitch.

Tucker, the older brother of Astros star Kyle Tucker, is a former Astros outfielder himself. He hit .222/.281/.403 in 221 MLB games with Houston, Atlanta and Cincinnati from 2015-18. After three seasons in South Korea, Tucker returned to the U.S. on a minor league deal with the Braves in May. The 32-year-old had a decent showing with their top affiliate in Gwinnett, hitting .267/.347/.426 in 75 games.

Carlton, 27, has made nine relief appearances with the Tigers over the past two seasons. The right-hander has allowed six runs in 12 1/3 career innings, striking out eight with four walks. The Florida State product doesn’t throw especially hard, sitting in the low 90s with his fastball. He’s shown excellent control throughout his minor league tenure, though, and he punched out an above-average 27.3% of opponents through 58 1/3 innings with Detroit’s top affiliate in Toledo this year. Owner of a 3.90 ERA in 110 2/3 innings at the top minor league level, he’ll presumably battle for a bullpen spot in Spring Training.

Three Possible Landing Spots For Christian Vázquez

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Fresh off his second World Series title, long-time Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez is a free agent for the first time in his career. With Willson Contreras inking a five-year, $87.MM deal with the Cardinals, Vazquez is arguably the top free agent catcher left on the board, rivaled by Sean Murphy in the trade market. This position has left Vazquez with a lengthy list of suitors, including the Twins, Padres, D-Backs, Guardians, Diamondbacks, and Giants.

Vazquez, a career .261/.310/.386 hitter, had a two-sided 2022 season. In Boston, the righty hit .282/.327/.432 with eight homers and 20 doubles. However, after being traded to Houston, Vazquez struggled, hitting a weaker .250/.278/.308 while splitting time with Martin Maldonado. Nevertheless, from 2019-2022, the backstop hit a solid .271/.318/416 (95 wRC+). Additionally, Vazquez has been solid behind the plate, having thrown out 34% of runners since his debut in 2014, ranking in the 71st percentile pop time to second base during the 2022 season, and has drawn plus framing marks from publicly available metrics via Statcast, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. With this solid season and a strong overall career, MLBTR predicts that Vazquez will earn a contract in the three years, $27MM range.

As for Vazquez’s free agent preferences, the 32-year-old has told reporters that a starting role and contending are at the forefront when determining his next home. With those two factors in mind, along with his strong history, here are some potential landing spots for the veteran.

Beginning with one of the more active teams during this year’s free agent period: the Padres. San Diego primarily relied on a tandem of Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro in 2022, with Friars’ backstops hitting a combined .249/.303/.350 with a middle-of-the-pack wRC+ (88). With the Padres opting to non-tender Alfaro, the club is currently projected to start the 2023 season with Nola and Luis Campusano behind the dish. Neither player should necessarily be a roadblock to surveying the market for a team as aggressively motivated to win now as San Diego.

More importantly, the Padres have not been afraid to open their wallet, most recently signing former Red Sox teammate Xander Bogaerts to a colossal 11-year, $280MM deal. San Diego also offered Aaron Judge $400MM and Trea Turner $342MM, before the two players signed with other clubs. A win-now team searching for a catching upgrade, the Padres appear a logical candidate to pique Vazquez’s interest while simultaneously outbidding competitors.

Cleveland is another potential landing spot for the veteran, with Austin Hedges reaching free agency and leaving the unproven Bryan Lavastida and Bo Naylor as the only backstops on the 40-man roster. Naylor is a highly-regarded prospect, but turning everyday reps behind the dish over to a 23-year-old could be too risky for a team looking to defend their AL Central title. The Guardians posted the second-lowest combined wRC+ for catchers last season (55), utilizing a soft-hitting duo of Austin Hedges and Luke Maile, although Hedges is regarded highly for his defensive work. Vazquez’s addition would improve offensive output while maintaining a high defensive level for the club.

The Guardians have already made one significant free agent addition this offseason, signing Josh Bell to a two-year, $33MM deal with an opt-out after the first season. The team also made an offer for first baseman Jose Abreu, but couldn’t reach the $60MM threshold that the Astros closed in on. A team known for their low budget, the Guardians are also heavily involved in the Murphy trade market but will likely remain a player for Vazquez’s services if his price is not out of their comfort zone.

A third potential (wildcard) team for the backstop is a former AL East rival, the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay primarily relied on Francisco Mejia, who was widely considered one of baseball’s top minor leaguers, ranked as high as fifth in Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect ranking prior to the 2018 season, during the 2022 season. However, after a solid 2021 season (.260/.322/.417), Mejia struggled in 2022, hitting a meager .242/.264/.381. Poor performance and injuries led Tampa Bay to acquire Christian Bethancourt from Oakland in early July. Bethancourt would perform marginally better, hitting .255/.265/.436 in 151 plate appearances with the Rays.

As a team, Rays’ catchers hit a combined .224/.248/.373 with a below-average wRC+ (78). Vazquez represents an offensive upgrade to these two players, albeit with a higher price point than both Bethancourt and Mejia, who are both on their rookie deals. Nevertheless, Mejia still has one MiLB option remaining, and Vazquez and Bethancourt have experience, although limited, in the field with Bethancourt playing 249 innings at first base during the 2022 season. Admittedly, this landing spot is the least likely of the three.

While the Padres and Guardians present more logical landing spots for Vazquez, competitive teams, like the Rays, may look to shuffle their roster to add a proven veteran backstop talent. Minnesota recently offered Vazquez a contract, and there are sure to be many teams involved in free agent discussions with the catcher as the offseason continues.

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