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Prospect Faceoff: Bart vs. Rutschman

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The parallels between the Giants’ Joey Bart and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman are plentiful. Both were standout catchers at reputable Division-I schools –Bart at Georgia Tech and Rutschman at Oregon State. Bart was in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 but went second overall to San Francisco. A year later, in 2019, Rutschman went No. 1 overall to Baltimore. Both draw significant praise for their defensive skills — each received a 60-grade on the 20-80 scale at both FanGraphs and MLB.com — as well as their raw power (again, both 60s). They’re widely considered to be the top two catching prospects in the game.

Joey Bart | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Bart 23, is about 14 months older than Rutschman and has already climbed as high as Double-A on the minor league ladder. He spent most of the 2019 season in Class-A Advanced, hitting .265/.315/.479 (116 wRC+) before a 22-game stint in Double-A where he finished on a tear: .316/.368/.544 (163 wRC+). Bart went on to the Arizona Fall League and hit .333/.524/.767 with four homers in 42 plate appearances before a broken thumb cut his AFL stint short. He could stand to improve his plate discipline (6.2 percent walk rate), but Bart also didn’t strike out at a particularly alarming rate (21 percent).

Behind the plate, Bart posted a rather pedestrian 27 percent caught-stealing rate across those two minor league levels before absolutely owning the run game in the AFL, where he caught nine of the 13 runners who attempted to take a base against him. Scouting reports praise his receiving and framing abilities as well as his ability to block pitches in the dirt — all things you’d expect for a catcher who was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year prior to being drafted in 2018. With Buster Posey’s contract winding down and his production waning, it’s not out of the question to think that Bart could debut in 2020 if the season is able to get underway at some point. If not, a 2021 debut should be considered likely, barring some major injury.

The 22-year-old Rutschman, meanwhile, is obviously further from the Majors but offers many of the same skills. He’s touted as a high-end defensive catcher with a strong arm behind the plate and plenty of pop with the bat. Rutschman hit .254/.351/.423 with a hearty 13 percent walk rate through 154 plate appearances in his pro debut, topping out with Class-A Delmarva. He struck out in just 17.5 percent of those plate appearances, although it’s worth pointing out that he really hasn’t faced any pitching that’s older and more experienced than he is just yet.

Adley Rutschman | Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike Bart, Rutschman is a switch-hitter. He has power from both sides of the dish even if most reports agree that his left-handed swing is superior to his right-handed swing. He threw out seven of the 11 hitters who tried to steal against him in his limited pro debut and, by all accounts, should be adept at controlling runners, calling a game, blocking pitches in the dirt and framing. It’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be in the Majors by 2022 — and a 2021 debut isn’t all that far-fetched (depending on any service time games the Orioles do or don’t feel like playing).

Given that Bart and Rutschman were elite college catchers who went within the first two picks of a draft class in consecutive seasons, this likely isn’t the only place you’ll see the two of them compared in the coming years. Rutschman is generally ranked more highly on prospect lists, although not by much in some cases. He’s No. 4 to Bart’s 14 at MLB.com and No. 5 against Bart’s 10 at FanGraphs. Other publications have a bit more distance between them, including Baseball America (Rutschman at 5, Bart at 32), Baseball Prospectus (Rutschman at 4, Bart at 25) and The Athletic (Rutschman at 10, Bart at 44). Prospect rankings are in a constant state of flux, though, and the pair is close enough that the consensus opinion could easily change in a few months’ time.

It’s clear that both are expected to become high-end catchers with All-Star potential, but let’s open up the debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Which prospect would you rather have?
Adley Rutschman 61.10% (2,844 votes)
Joey Bart 38.90% (1,811 votes)
Total Votes: 4,655

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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The roster churn continued for the Giants, who made a plethora of lower-tier (and fairly inexpensive) acquisitions that includes a few familiar faces returning to the Bay Area.

Major League Signings

  • Kevin Gausman, SP: One year, $9MM
  • Wilmer Flores, IF: Two years, $6.25MM (includes $250K buyout of 3.5MM club option for 2022)
  • Drew Smyly, SP: One year, $4MM
  • Hunter Pence, OF: One year, $3MM
  • Tony Watson, RP: One year, $3MM (Watson negotiated a new one-year pact, rather than exercise the 2020 player option in his contract)
  • Tyler Anderson, SP: One year, $1.775MM (re-signed after Giants non-tendered him at Dec. 2 deadline)
  • Total spend: $27.025MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

It wasn’t nearly as headline-grabbing as the Giants’ attempt to land Bryce Harper in the 2018-19 offseason, but San Francisco similarly looked into making an impact move in this winter’s free agent market.  The club at least explored the possibility of signing Nicholas Castellanos (though there were conflicting reports about the depth of that interest) and Yasiel Puig was also on the radar.  Neither signing materialized.

Instead, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi continued his more measured overhaul of the roster.  Yes, such staples as Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, and Brandon Crawford are all still in the orange and black.  However, just because the Giants haven’t engaged in a slash-and-burn rebuild doesn’t mean a rebuild isn’t happening.  Just look at the sheer volume of new talent that has been brought into the organization to surround those veteran pillars over Zaidi’s 17 months in charge of the team.

This offseason did see two major names depart the organization, as Will Smith signed with the Braves and postseason hero Mason Sau….er, Madison Bumgarner left for the NL West rival Diamondbacks.  But, the Giants also brought back a pair of names from their early-decade glory days, as Pablo Sandoval re-signed on another minor league contract and Hunter Pence ended up being San Francisco’s biggest outfield acquisition.

Pence’s career seemed to be running on fumes after he left the Giants following the 2018 campaign, yet an overhauled swing led to a surprising .297/.358/.552 slash line over 316 plate appearances with the Rangers last season.  Advanced metrics indicated Pence’s production was no fluke, though there is some uncertainty about whether a repeat performance is possible as Pence approaches his 36th birthday.  He was limited to 83 games due to back and groin injuries in 2019, and the move back to the National League means Pence no longer has the benefit of the DH spot — 202 of his 316 PA last season came as a designated hitter.

That said, a $3MM contract doesn’t represent a major risk on San Francisco’s part, and the team doesn’t expect Pence to play every day.  Pence will serve as the primary right-handed hitting complement to the left-handed hitting corner outfield duo of Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson, as the Giants are eager to see what the two 29-year-olds can do after their promising 2019 seasons.

Center field is more of a question mark.  Kevin Pillar hit 21 homers in 2019 and was a clubhouse leader, but the Giants opted to non-tender the veteran center fielder rather than pay him a projected $9.7MM in salary arbitration.  Steven Duggar was also optioned to Triple-A prior to the roster freeze, and while Duggar is likely to re-emerge in the big leagues if the season gets underway, minor league signing Billy Hamilton could be the current favorite for the bulk of center field playing time.

Hamilton hasn’t been able to match even Pillar’s traditionally subpar offensive numbers over his career, but he still provides elite defense and will come at a much lower price than $9.7MM if and when the Giants officially select his contract.  The more intriguing option in center field, however, is Mauricio Dubon.  After a respectable rookie year, the Giants plan to deploy Dubon on the outfield grass as well as at second base.  He could also spell Longoria at third base and Crawford at shortstop.

Dubon’s potential as a multi-position threat makes him an even bigger piece of the Giants’ future, particularly if he shows he can passably handle center field duty.  Dubon had been expected to be the regular second baseman in 2020, though since he could be shifting around the diamond, the Giants addressed the keystone with a pair of veteran signings.

Reigning AL Gold Glove winner Yolmer Sanchez inked a minor league deal with the Giants after being non-tendered by the White Sox, while Wilmer Flores scored the only multi-year commitment of San Francisco’s offseason — a two-year deal worth $6.25MM in guaranteed money.  Besides second base, Flores can also serve as a corner infielder and could get some first base time against left-handed pitching (in lieu of the left-handed hitting Belt) while Sanchez plays second base and Dubon lines up in center field.

That is only one potential gameplan for new manager Gabe Kapler, however, as the Giants also have Sandoval, Donovan Solano, and Kean Wong available in the infield picture, plus minor league signings Darin Ruf and Zach Green were tearing up Cactus League pitching before Spring Training was halted.  It’s fair to assume that any or all of these names could have been mixed and matched even if the season had begun under normal circumstances, and in the event of a shortened schedule with as many games as possible crammed into a reduced timeframe, the Giants are even more likely to rely on depth.

The depth behind the plate, however, took a hit when Aramis Garcia underwent labrum surgery in February.  With a projected six-to-eight month recovery period, Garcia could potentially return even on the back end of that timeframe, should the regular season be extended into October (and the postseason into November and beyond).  Until then, San Francisco will go with Rob Brantly or Tyler Heineman as Posey’s backup, as Joey Bart will probably not join the MLB roster until 2021, barring a change in strategy for the organization in light of the altered schedule.

Starting pitching was perhaps the clearest need of the winter, and the Giants addressed the rotation by signing Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly for two of the open spots behind Cueto and Samardzija.  Both Gausman and Smyly are looking to bounce back after struggling in 2019, with Gausman perhaps having the better chance at a rebound after seemingly getting on track as a reliever with the Reds and suffering some bad BABIP luck (.345) as a starter with the Braves.

It isn’t out of the question that Gausman or Smyly eventually wind up in San Francisco’s bullpen, should any of the Giants’ younger pitchers emerge.  Tyler Beede is gone for the season due to Tommy John surgery, leaving Logan Webb, Trevor Cahill, Dereck Rodriguez, Trevor Oaks, and Andrew Suarez to compete for the fifth starter’s job.  Any of this bunch could step into another rotation spot if Gausman or Smyly don’t pitch well, plus Tyler Anderson will also get a crack at starting once he fully recovers from knee surgery.

There is very little certainty within any of these options, of course, which could be why there was so little trade buzz about Cueto or Samardzija over the winter.  Cueto had less trade value after pitching only 16 innings in 2019 in his return from Tommy John surgery, though Samardzija stands out as a prime trade candidate as he enters the final year of his contract.  If the 2020 season is canceled entirely, however, Samardzija would still be eligible for free agency, and the Giants would potentially miss an opportunity to trade a veteran for some additional prospect help or salary relief (as they did by dealing Drew Pomeranz and Mark Melancon at last year’s trade deadline).

The biggest trade of San Francisco’s offseason saw the club focus on adding minor league talent, as the Giants agreed to what was essentially a “buy a prospect” trade with the Angels.  The target was 21-year-old shortstop Will Wilson, the 15th overall pick of the 2019 draft, whom the Angels surrendered in order to get the remaining $12.167MM of Zack Cozart’s contract off their books.  The Giants absorbed Cozart’s salary and then released him a month later.

Could we see Zaidi and GM Scott Harris use this same tactic again in 2020?  It’s possible, given that there has been some speculation that some teams could be particularly eager to unload salaries due to the reduced schedule, and we already know that Zaidi’s front office is open to any transaction.  Then again, it’s also hard to forecast how even a wealthier franchise like the Giants could adjust to the financial uncertainty facing the league.

2020 Season Outlook

The possibility of a reduced or lost season is a major blow to a Giants club that is still trying to figure out which of its current players will be part of its next contending team.  Top prospects like Bart or Heliot Ramos could lose an entire year’s worth of minor league seasoning, while the jury will still be out on whether younger members of the MLB roster (e.g. Dubon, Webb) are full-fledged big leaguers or if older but still not established players like Dickerson or Yastrzemski can build on their 2019 numbers.

Fangraphs projected the Giants for a 71-91 record over a full season, a dropoff even from their modest 77-win total from 2019.  While the small sample size wildness of a reduced schedule could lead to surprises, the Giants simply don’t match up well on paper with most of the National League, and it seems rather clear that the front office views the 2020 season as a development year.

How would you grade the Giants’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Giants' Offseason?
C 40.60% (1,049 votes)
D 23.96% (619 votes)
B 21.67% (560 votes)
F 8.98% (232 votes)
A 4.80% (124 votes)
Total Votes: 2,584

NL West Notes: Martin, Giants, Ubaldo

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Right-hander Corbin Martin, one of four players the Astros sent to Arizona in the Zack Greinke blockbuster, had been on the Diamondbacks’ radar for awhile, writes Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription required). They’d first targeted him in the 2017 draft and again in trade talks with the ’Stros centered around Paul Goldschmidt — but Houston wasn’t keen on including him in such a deal. At the time, Martin was 22 and fresh off 122 innings of 2.51 ERA ball between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, while Goldschmidt only had a year of control left.

Martin made his MLB debut in 2019 but underwent Tommy John surgery in July and was suddenly on the shelf for a win-now Astros club. Thus, D-backs GM Mike Hazen inquired again, and the Astros were more willing to listen the second time around. A package of Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer and Josh Rojas (plus plenty of cash to help offset Greinke’s salary) got the job done. Martin may not be an option for the Snakes until 2021, but he’s a second-rounder with a career 2.58 ERA in the minors who has ranked on Top 100 lists in both of the past two offseasons, making him an intriguing piece down the road. D-backs and Astros fans alike will want to check out the piece for thoughts from Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye on the club’s longstanding interest in Martin.

Some more out of the NL West…

  • The Giants’ release of veteran lefty Jerry Blevins only increased the odds of southpaws Jarlin Garcia and Wandy Peralta making the club, notes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Both pitchers hurled five shutout innings when exhibition games were still being played — Garcia with an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio and Peralta with a 10-to-4 mark. Given that Garcia is out of minor league options, he’d appear a particularly likely candidate to secure a spot in the ’pen, although there’s certainly room for both. The Giants claimed both lefties off waivers, with Peralta coming over from the Reds in September and Garcia coming over from the Marlins over the winter. Each has had some success in the Majors and is controllable all the way through the 2023 season should things pan out in the Bay Area.
  • Baseball’s shutdown put Ubaldo Jimenez’s comeback attempt with the Rockies on hold, but the right-hander is open to pitching in the minors if play is able to resume, writes Nick Groke of The Athletic in an excellent column on Jimenez’s unexpected bid to revive his career (subscription required). As Groke details, Jimenez received a “fringy” Major League offer in the 2017-18 offseason but opted to stay home in the Dominican with his pregnant wife and soon-to-be-born child. This offseason, wanting to take one last shot, he called Rockies VP of international scouting Rolando Fernandez about using the team’s complex in the Dominican to refine his mechanics. That eventually turned into a solid Dominican Winter League stint, a minor league deal with the Rox and several weeks serving playing the role of wise old sage to younger Rockies pitchers like German Marquez. Manager Bud Black tells Groke that Jimenez was sitting around 91 mph with his heater early in camp. A comeback at age 36 is a long shot but would make for one heck of an in-season storyline to root for.

Giants Release Jerry Blevins, Brandon Guyer

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The Giants released left-hander Jerry Blevins and outfielder Brandon Guyer shortly before the league-wide roster freeze was implemented, per Baseball America’s Chris Hilburn-Trenkle. Both veterans had been in Major League camp as non-roster invitees this spring.

It was a rough spring for the 36-year-old Blevins, who was tagged for nine runs on 10 hits and a pair of walks with three strikeouts in just 3 2/3 innings of work. In all, the southpaw allowed 12 of the 23 hitters he faced to reach base.

That said, Blevins also had a quality showing for the Braves in 2019, tossing 32 1/3 innings of 3.90 ERA ball. He punched out 37 hitters against 16 walks in that time and held opposing lefties to a miserable .180/.261/.279 slash. Righties handled him much better, slashing .233/.347/.483, however. It’s been a similar story for Blevins throughout his career — .583 OPS from opposing lefties; .743 from righties — and it stands to reason that he’s the type of player whose skill set is largely undercut by MLB’s new three-batter minimum. If the season is able to be played out, it’s likely he’d need to latch on elsewhere on another nonguaranteed deal.

As for Guyer, the 34-year-old appeared in only five spring games with the Giants and went 1-for-7 in nine total plate appearances. (Yes, he was hit by a pitch in one of them.) Guyer hasn’t played in the Majors since 2018 after spending the bulk of the 2019 season on the injured list with the White Sox’ top minor league affiliate in Charlotte. He’s a career .250/.339/.388 hitter but is best used as a platoon piece, as evidenced by a lifetime .274/.376/.449 batting line against left-handed pitchers.

Rookie Radar: NL West

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MLBTR’s Jeff Todd has already run through the American League Central and the American League West in previewing some of the interesting young talent that could surface in the Majors this season. We’ll tackle the NL West next — a particularly interesting division given the enviable bevy of young talent that has been cultivated by both the Dodgers and Padres. Los Angeles and San Diego have two of the game’s best systems, but there are varying degrees of high-end talent bubbling to the surface for all five NL West clubs…

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jon Duplantier is a former top 100 prospect whose debut effort in 2019 was slowed by shoulder troubles. He notched a 4.42 ERA and 34-to-18 K/BB ratio in 36 2/3 innings when on the roster, though he was optioned to Triple-A five times. There’s no room in Arizona’s rotation at the moment, but Duplantier and his career 2.54 minor league ERA with 10.5 K/9 will be one of the first lines of defense should a need arise. Righty Kevin Ginkel also got his feet wet in the big leagues and, after posting a 1.48 ERA and a 28-to-9 K/BB ratio in 24 1/3 innings of relief, should have the inside track on a bullpen spot whenever play resumes.

Elsewhere in the D-backs’ system loom catcher Daulton Varsho, infielder Andy Young, first baseman Seth Beer and right-hander J.B. Bukauskas. Varsho is a homegrown talent who’s considered to be among baseball’s 100 best prospects, although the presence of Carson Kelly in the big leagues puts a roadblock in his path to Phoenix. He’s yet to play above Double-A, but a big Triple-A showing and an injury to Kelly and/or Stephen Vogt could propel Varsho to the bigs.

Young, Bukauskas and Beer were all acquired in trades — Young alongside Weaver and Kelly in the Paul Goldschmidt swap and the others in the Zack Greinke blockbuster. Arizona’s infield is stacked at the moment, but Young can play anywhere in the infield, so he’s a nice depth piece … who happened to bash 21 homers and slug .611 in 277 Triple-A plate appearances last year. Beer showed big pop of his own in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting last season. Bukauskas will be looking for a rebound after a poor showing in Double-A.

Colorado Rockies

Rox fans have been waiting since 2015 to get a good look at Brendan Rodgers, the No. 3 overall pick in that year’s draft. Rodgers has ranked among the game’s elite prospects each season since being drafted, and he finally made his big league debut in 2019 … only to undergo shoulder surgery after all of 81 plate appearances. He might open the year in the minors, but Rodgers will be looming in the event that Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson struggle or get hut. Either way, if he’s healthy, Rodgers should force the team’s hand.

Elsewhere on the roster, expect to see Sam Hilliard play a prominent role in the outfield mix. He received a similarly sized cup of coffee to Rodgers and made the most of it, raking at a .273/.356/.649 clip. Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl are locked into two spots, but Hilliard will vie for at-bats with Raimel Tapia as Ian Desmond slips further into a reserve role. Yonathan Daza could also factor in as a bench option, depending on the health of those ahead of him on the depth chart.

Someone asked me in this week’s MLBTR chat who might step up in the event of a Nolan Arenado trade, and the club isn’t short on options — including Arenado’s own cousin, Josh Fuentes. He’s already 27, though, and had a rough showing in Triple-A this past season. More intriguing options include Tyler Nevin — yes, Phil’s son — and Colton Welker.

Southpaw Ben Bowden could emerge in the bullpen, and given the uncertainty at the back of the big league rotation — Chi Chi Gonzalez might’ve been the favorite in the fifth spot — we could see either of righty Ashton Goudeau or Antonio Santos get a look.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Gavin Lux, one of the game’s top 1o prospects, will get the opportunity to claim second base as his home for the foreseeable future. He didn’t do much in 82 MLB plate appearances last season, but if you want a laugh, check out Lux’s line in 49 Triple-A games: .392/.478/.719 with 13 home runs, 18 doubles and four triples in 232 plate appearances.

The Dodgers have an embarrassment of wealth in terms of young pitching, headlined by righty Dustin May, who’s already posted a 3.63 ERA and 32-to-5 K/BB ratio in 34 2/3 MLB frames. Fellow righty Tony Gonsolin impressed in his own ’19 debut, and the Dodgers added some triple-digit heat to the bullpen by acquiring Brusdar Graterol from the Twins. Behind that trio? Josiah Gray, acquired in the Homer Bailey salary dump with the Reds, posted a 2.28 ERA with 147 punchouts in 130 Double-A innings in ’19.

Catcher Keibert Ruiz is somewhat blocked by fellow youngster Will Smith, but he could be in line for a promotion should Smith sustain an injury. If there’s an injury (or multiple injuries) elsewhere on the roster, any of corner infielder/outfielder Edwin Rios, center fielder DJ Peters or Swiss army knife Zach McKinstry could get the call. Rios hit well in a limited debut last season, and McKinstry is cut from the Chris Taylor/Enrique Hernandez cloth, having appeared at shortstop, second base, third base and all three outfield slots in recent seasons. (Sometimes it feels like the Dodgers grow these guys on trees.)

San Diego Padres

You won’t find many (any?) organizations with a more tantalizing pairing of pitching prospects than lefty MacKenzie Gore and righty Luis Patino. Either or both could conceivably reach the Majors in 2020. Gore is particularly touted, generally ranking inside the game’s top 10 overall prospects after posting a sub-2.00 ERA in 20 starts between Class-A Advanced and Double-A.

Center fielder Taylor Trammell still hasn’t tapped into his raw power, but his tantalizing package of tools landed him among the game’s top 100 prospects for a third straight offseason. The Padres’ outfield has turned over in a major way, and while Trammell might need a big showing in Triple-A to force the organization’s hand, he’s not far off after spending all of 2019 in Double-A.

The Padres have plenty of players with rookie eligibility who briefly saw the big leagues this past season. Righty Michel Baez and lefty Adrian Morejon aren’t quite on that same level as the Gore/Patino combo, but they were both high-profile international signings — Baez commanding a $3MM bonus and Morejon landing $11MM — and have both been top 100 entrants themselves. (Morejon still is.) Righty Ronald Bolanos also commanded a seven-figure bonus (just north of $2MM) and briefly debuted in ’19. Reliever David Bednar was sharp in Double-A and logged 11 MLB frames with San Diego, too.

If there’s a particularly intriguing prospect here, it could be Jake Cronenworth. He’s not considered a premium prospect, but the 26-year-old posted a .949 OPS in Triple-A with the Rays last year and has been developing as a two-way player. He’s more in the Michael Lorenzen mold, so he might not get two-way designation anytime soon thanks to MLB’s bizarrely stringent eligibility requirements — essentially, only Shohei Ohtani or Brendan McKay could qualify — but he brings a unique skill set to the table all the same.

San Francisco Giants

Expect Mauricio Dubon to get a long look, perhaps even in center field. The former Brewers/Red Sox middle infield prospect played there earlier in spring and could be an outfield option, depending on how the team uses Wilmer Flores and (if he makes the roster) Yolmer Sanchez. Slugger Jaylin Davis didn’t hit much in a 17-game September cameo, but he cranked 35 long balls between Double-A and Triple-A, which should get him a look on a power-starved Giants roster.

Logan Webb could end up as the team’s fifth starter — particularly now that Tyler Beede will miss the 2020 season. Webb didn’t fare well in eight MLB starts a year ago and has been hobbled by injuries since being a fourth-round pick in 2014, but he shoved with a 1.84 ERA across three minor league levels in 2019 prior to his promotion.

The big question for Giants fans is, of course, when will they get their look at Buster Posey’s heir apparent? Joey Bart, the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft, has flat-out raked at every stop and is a rare, fast-rising catching prospect. He won’t turn 24 until next offseason, but Bart is a .284/.343/.532 hitter in the minors — including a .316/.368/.554 effort in a 22-game showing at Double-A last year.

Extension Candidates: NL West

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote recently, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. We’ve already checked in on the NL East and NL Central. Here are some names to chew on from the NL West …

Diamondbacks

The Snakes have managed to control costs, compete, and build their farm system all at the same time. It’s a tricky balancing act to manage over any length of time. And extensions are a key component. Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed, Eduardo Escobar, and David Peralta are already playing on extensions. There are some other candidates on the roster as well.

Several Arizona veterans are conceivable candidates, not that any seems particularly likely to agree to terms. Hurler Robbie Ray is heading into a walk year, but comes with a pretty wide risk/upside spread. Recently acquired outfielder Starling Marte is already 31 years of age, so the club probably won’t be in a rush to work out a new deal with two years of control remaining. Reliever Archie Bradley is also two years from the open market; an extension could make sense in his case. The team will be looking at a big arbitration bill next year if Bradley racks up saves, while he’d surely be open to eliminating some personal health/performance risk.

The younger class of players contains some rather intriguing possibilities. Catcher Carson Kelly and starter Luke Weaver are both entering their final pre-arbitration season (the former via Super Two status). Though 2019 trade deadline addition Zac Gallen isn’t even close to arbitration, it could be an opportune moment to get something done.

Dodgers

When the Dodgers acquired superstar outfielder Mookie Betts, they knew they were giving up significant value for just one season of performance. Now, with the season on hold, there’s newfound uncertainty for all involved — particularly given that it’s not even clear yet whether Betts will hit the open market as expected this coming fall. After a few happy weeks together this spring, could the sides take advantage of the lull to discuss a longer-term relationship?

There’s no evidence of that happening, but it’d be a potential coup for the Dodgers. It would also be extremely costly. No doubt the team is at least as intrigued by the idea of finding some savings by locking in superstar slugger Cody Bellinger. Trouble is, the 24-year-old just landed a whopping $11.5MM contract as a Super Two. His arbitration eligibility could easily set an overall record and he’ll expect a long-term deal to reflect that and pay at a premium rate for any future free-agent campaigns.

There was a time when Corey Seager would’ve seemed an obvious extension target, but his place in the team’s plans is uncertain after some injury-limited campaigns. More interesting at this point are some of the newest members of the L.A. roster. Backstop Will Smith and infielder Gavin Lux each carry huge promise and some MLB experience. Though the Dodgers haven’t led the league with aggressive early-career extensions, both of these players are sensible targets.

Giants

Yikes. It’s not a good sign to see a roster that lacks for extension candidates — unless, perhaps, many young players have already agreed to deals. In this case, the Giants have a combination of veterans playing out underperforming contracts and largely un-established younger players who don’t really seem in line for any long-term commitment.

If you squint hard enough, you could see Mauricio Dubon as a candidate if the team has really fallen in love since acquiring him last summer. But that’s probably unnecessarily aggressive. Otherwise, basically every conceivable possibility has too many areas of concern to warrant serious consideration. Perhaps the situation will look different this time next year — someone might step up with a big season; top prospects like Joey Bart or Heliot Ramos may turn into candidates for early-career extensions — but it’s hard to see much reason for talks at the moment.

Padres

The ideal outcome would be to secure the services of Fernando Tatis Jr. with a deal along the lines of the Braves’ pact with Ronald Acuna Jr.. The Friars will probably have to keep dreaming about that team-friendly arrangement, but there has been some reporting indicating the sides could hold talks. Tatis himself said in late February that nothing was cooking, but there’s every reason to keep a conversation going if there’s mutual interest. Righty Chris Paddack could certainly also be a candidate as well, though perhaps the added risks on the pitching side will keep the sides apart for the time being.

There are other younger players that could hold appeal in the right situation. On the position player side, Trent Grisham, Franchy Cordero, and Francisco Mejia could be considered. And among pitchers, you could easily see the merit of locking in Dinelson Lamet or Joey Lucchesi.

Oh, and the Friars do have one notable veteran in an obvious extension stance: closer Kirby Yates. There’s reason to believe the sides have some interest, but it’s not clear how likely it is a deal will come together. Yates is a late-emerging star reliever who’s two days from his 33rd birthday and one season away from free agency. His age limits his overall contractual upside, but he was absurdly dominant in 2019. It’s certainly possible to imagine both player and team seeing the sense in a deal.

Rockies

The Rox already have long-term control over German Marquez and Nolan Arenado. So … why not add Jon Gray and Trevor Story, making a strong core four over the long haul? Well, it’s not a simple situation for the Colorado organization. Trouble is, some brutal fortune in the free agent market has left little financial flexibility and a top-heavy roster. We can’t rule out deals for Gray and/or Story, but they’ll both cost a ton and would be hard to pull off — particularly given the ongoing drama with Arenado.

That’s not to say the Rockies couldn’t still look to other ways of achieving value. In particular, outfielders David Dahl and Sam Hilliard could be interesting targets. The former has had quite a few injuries and the latter has only spent about a month in the majors, but those factors might also drive down the price tag and with it the contractual upside. Otherwise, you could perhaps see some daylight for a deal with reliever Carlos Estevez if the Rox are fully sold on his 2019 showing. But the team already made a deal with its best reliever (Scott Oberg) and probably doesn’t need any more long-term bullpen entanglements.

Rebound Candidate: Kevin Gausman

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While Kevin Gausman has never developed into the top-of-the-rotation starter many envisioned, he carved out a role as a solid innings eater in his first five MLB seasons. Between 2016-18, Gausman averaged 183.1 innings with a 4.07 ERA/4.30 FIP between the Orioles and Braves.

Then the wheels fell off in the first half of 2019. The righty started his first full season in Atlanta with a 6.21 ERA in 13 starts; he hit the shelf for a month-plus with plantar fasciitis in his right foot June 11. Gausman would make just three more starts for the Braves, who waived him in August. The non-contending Reds claimed him for the stretch run.

It was Gausman’s time in Cincinnati that offers the most hope for a rebound. With a full rotation, manager David Bell deployed him solely in short stints (14 relief appearances and one ’start’ as a two-inning opener). While he managed just a 4.03 ERA in that time, the now 29-year-old racked up an impressive 29:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Gausman’s midseason bullpen bump wasn’t at the level of someone like Drew Pomeranz’s, who struck out nearly half the batters he faced as a reliever and parlayed it into a four-year deal. It was, however, enough to remind us Gausman’s nowhere near as bad as he looked at the start of last season.

In fact, much of Gausman’s abysmal results in Atlanta can be chalked up to bad luck. Hitters put up an unsustainable .345 BABIP against him in his time as a starting pitcher. And those batted balls tended to fall in at the least opportune times. As a Brave in 2019, Gausman faced 53 batters with two outs and runners on base. He struck out 18 of them, but opponents hit .406 on balls in play in those spots. If just a handful of those batted balls had found defenders’ gloves, his ERA would’ve looked quite a bit better. Luck isn’t to blame for all of Gausman’s trouble in Atlanta. He did allow more hard, airborne contact than ever before, which is a bit worrisome. Nevertheless, it’s fair to point out things beyond his control contributed to his struggles.

The rotation-needy Giants signed up for a potential Gausman rebound this offseason. He’ll get another crack at cementing himself as a rotation piece at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. He doesn’t throw as hard as he once did, but he still sits 94+ MPH on his fastball. That pairs with a knockout splitter that’s allowed him to handle left-handed hitters throughout his career. At the very least, he should be well-equipped for the three batter minimum if he ends up back in the bullpen at some point.

Surely, though, SF is hoping for a successful return to the rotation for the still-young hurler. Perhaps the organization can unlock further upside by coaxing a usable breaking ball. David O’Brien of the Athletic reported last summer Gausman had toyed with a curveball while rehabbing from the aforementioned injury, but he was almost exclusively fastball-splitter in the big leagues. Even a mere return to form would position Gausman well when he hits the open market next offseason. The Giants don’t appear likely to contend in 2020, so the righty could find himself changing uniforms for the third straight season.

Giants Option Shaun Anderson, Steven Duggar To Triple-A

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The Giants have optioned right-hander Shaun Anderson and outfielder Steven Duggar to Triple-A Sacramento, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic was among those to report. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said neither player positioned himself in spring training to make the Giants’ Opening Day roster, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle relays.

The 25-year-old Anderson got off to a respectable start as a rookie last season, but he was battered in the second half, leading to a 5.44 ERA/4.77 FIP across 96 innings. Anderson managed uninspiring strikeout and walk numbers along the way, fanning 6.56 per nine with 3.56 BB/9. While Anderson still entered the spring hoping to grab a spot in the Giants’ bullpen, he’ll have to earn his way back via the minors in 2020, if a baseball season even occurs.

Duggar, 26, endured a rough 2019 season, in part because of left shoulder issues. He wound up with a meek .234/.278/.341 batting line in 281 plate appearances, thereby offsetting quality numbers in center and right (plus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, 5 Outs Above Average, plus-1.2 Ultimate Zone Rating). As someone who was a well-regarded prospect during his younger days, perhaps Duggar will eventually emerge as the Giants’ answer in center. In the near term, though, they could turn to offseason minor league signing Billy Hamilton up the middle.

Tyler Beede To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Giants right-hander Tyler Beede will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters this evening.  Beede was diagnosed with a UCL sprain and a flexor strain two weeks ago, and was scheduled for a second opinion last week.

The 26-year-old now faces a recovery timeline of 12-15 months, which will keep him from participating in whatever becomes of the 2020 season and cost him likely at least a couple of months of the 2021 season.  The delayed start to the 2020 season wasn’t a chief factor in Beede’s decision to undergo surgery, Zaidi told The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly and other media members, since Beede was told by doctors that he could face more elbow discomfort if he tried to rehab his injury without a proper procedure.

It’s a discouraging setback for Beede, a former 14th-overall pick (in 2014) who had yet to deliver on that potential over 124 2/3 innings, but was a strong contender to win a spot in San Francisco’s Opening Day rotation after throwing three scoreless innings during Spring Training action.  It’s hard to figure how the rotation picture might look if and when the season gets underway, but as it stood when Spring Training was halted, Dereck Rodriguez, Trevor Oaks, Trevor Cahill, and Logan Webb were the top contenders for that fifth starter’s job.

The majority of Beede’s big league exposure came last season, when he posted a 5.08 ERA, 2.46 K/BB rate, and 8.7 K/9 over 117 innings.  Like many pitchers in 2019, Beede struggled to limit home runs, allowing a 1.69 HR/9, but his larger issue was with hard contact in general.  As per Statcast, Beede allowed hard-hit contract on 43.7% of his balls put into play, with an average 90.8mph exit velocity — both numbers landed in the bottom-fourth percentile of all pitchers.

Butterfly Effects & The Jason Heyward Signing

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’Twas the winter of 2015-16. Jason Heyward wasn’t the best-available player in a well-stocked free agent class. But he was a high-quality performer and still tantalizingly young (26). While hardly a traditional corner outfield star due to his middling power, Heyward was well-established as a quality hitter and superlative defender and baserunner.

The debate raged long before the offseason arrived: how much can you really pay for a player like this? All agreed he was good. But the traditionalists howled at the notion of a right fielder who hadn’t even hit forty home runs over the prior three seasons landing a premium contract. The analytically minded countered that, well, runs are runs regardless of how they’re added or prevented. Heyward was a 6.9 rWAR / 5.6 fWAR performer in 2015. With exceptional glovework and a steady OBP, Heyward seemed to be a high-floor player who might have some ceiling as well.

[RELATED: Jason Heyward & Chris Davis Have Two Of The Worst Free Agent Contracts … In Different Ways]

We predicted that Heyward would earn $200MM over a full decade — second-most in a rather well-stocked free agent class. That didn’t quite happen, but the real deal was actually more favorable to Heyward than the one we had guessed. He landed $184MM over an eight-year term and also got two opt-out opportunities (which was worth something at the time the deal was struck, even if they weren’t exercised). The deal delivered a nice $23MM AAV over quite a lengthy term.

Now that we’re all reacquainted with the contract as it turned out … let’s try to remind ourselves of the state of play in the market when it was struck. At the time of the pact, there were hints that the Cubs may not have been the high bidder. The Nationals supposedly had the top offer on the table, though we may presume it’d have been deferred. The incumbent Cardinals were also known to be in pursuit. And the Angels and Giants were still involved in rumors right up until the end.

So … what would things have looked like if Heyward had landed elsewhere?

Nationals

Whoa … would the Nats have hoisted the commisioner’s trophy last fall had they signed Heyward? That’s obviously not something that can be assessed fairly given the innumerable butterfly effects potentially at play. But the counter-factual does actually present a pretty similar situation to what actually happened in 2019. In right field, the Nationals got solid but hardly otherworldly work out of Adam Eaton — another left-handed hitter whose skillset is rather similar to that of Heyward.

More interesting to consider is the fact that the Nats probably wouldn’t ever have dealt for Eaton had they already acquired Heyward. Eaton landed in D.C. after the team missed on its effort to acquire Chris Sale for the White Sox. The swap cost the Nationals pitchers Lucas Giolito (reimagine 2019 with him on the staff), Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning. Of course, Eaton has been much more affordable than Heyward this whole time. Who knows if the Nats would’ve inked Patrick Corbin last winter had Heyward been on the books.

Ultimately, the Washington organization has deep enough pockets that it would’ve been just fine with an underperforming $23MM salary on the books — not unlike the Cubs. At the same time, also not unlike the Cubs, the Nats have been focused on getting and staying just under the luxury tax line, so this deal would’ve been a constant nuisance that would’ve interfered with any number of lower-cost veteran signings and acquisitions over the past several seasons.

Cardinals

Much like the Nats, the Cards eventually made a big deal for a somewhat similar player. One winter after missing on Heyward (despite reportedly offering as much or more as the arch-rival Cubbies), the Redbirds reversed the talent flow by inking former Chicago center fielder Dexter Fowler. The switch-hitting Fowler wasn’t nearly as expensive as Heyward, but his own five-year, $82.5MM deal has worked out about as poorly. The Fowler contract probably wouldn’t have been signed had Heyward been around, but this is probably to the Cardinals’ benefit since the Heyward deal features a bigger and longer hit. Perhaps the Cubs would’ve ended up retaining Fowler had they missed on Heyward. You could argue over the details, but it’s probably not far from a wash.

Of course, the Cards went without either of those players in that 2016 campaign … which helped open the door to the memorable shooting star of Jeremy Hazelbaker. It’s tough to say whether there were significant long-term effects on the way the Cards’ outfield picture developed. Going without Heyward in 2016 opened more playing time for outfielders Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and, to a lesser extent, a pre-breakout Tommy Pham. Perhaps one or more would’ve been shipped out of town earlier had Heyward been retained. Maybe Pham’s breakout would’ve occurred elsewhere, thus eliminating his successive trades (to the Rays and then to the Padres), though it’s impossible to say that with any degree of confidence.

Angels

We don’t know whether the Halos were really strong pursuers of Heyward, but it’s worth considering what might’ve been. The club ended up foregoing any big free agent splashes that winter. (It had already acquired Andrelton Simmons.) Adding Heyward surely wouldn’t have forestalled the string of four-straight losing seasons, given the way he has played. But it might’ve prevented the Angels from eventually trading for and then extending Justin Upton. And it certainly could’ve gummed up this winter’s signing of Anthony Rendon.

Giants

Likewise, it’s not entirely clear that the Giants were heavily involved in bidding up Heyward’s price, but the team clearly had some real interest. The San Francisco org splashed a lot of regrettable cash that winter regardless. It had already inked Jeff Samardzija and ended up signing Johnny Cueto after Heyward landed with the Cubs. The Giants did find a rather direct alternative to Heyward, inking Denard Span to a three-year, $31MM pact. That didn’t quite go as hoped but was hardly a significant disaster. Suffice to say that having Heyward on the books would’ve further complicated an already difficult stretch for the organization.

Cubs

Ah, yes. The Cubs. Lauded at the time by some for landing Heyward for less than others would’ve paid — really, the deal was probably right at the market rate, give or take — the Cubbies have obviously not benefited from the signing.

Remember how we started this post? The debate over paying out a non-slugging right fielder. Consider these contemporaneous comments. On the one hand …

On the other …

To some degree, neither turned out to be right. And the lack of power was largely beside the point. Heyward did top twenty long balls in 2019, but he was still an average-or-worse hitter for the fourth-straight year. It was certainly his best offensive season for the Cubs … but also the team’s own worst effort in this four-year span. No, the Cubbies haven’t exactly dominated the National League over the span of this deal, but they did capture that elusive crown in 2016.

So does the World Series justify it? Eh … this isn’t as clean an analysis as the Gleyber Torres-for-Aroldis Chapman “you do what it takes!” situation. Heyward was terrible in 2016 and even worse in the postseason, when he contributed just five hits and a walk over fifty plate appearances.

There’s no two ways about it: the deal hasn’t worked out at all as hoped. Heyward has by all accounts worked hard and been a total class act, as ever. And he has trended back up with the bat, which is somewhat promising with regard to the final three seasons of the deal. But the net return to the Cubs — 7.1 rWAR and 6.0 fWAR — has not remotely justified the outlay.

Anybody that has watched the Chicago organization operate these past two winters can see the effects of this contractual miss. The Cubs have decided not to move past the luxury tax line, so every dollar going to Heyward has been another buck that couldn’t be allocated elsewhere. Of course, the Heyward whiff isn’t the only one that has stung in recent years, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently examined. And it’s worth emphasizing the he’s still just 30 years of age and still capable of contributing. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could even morph back into a quality regular. All things considered, this contract certainly didn’t single-handedly obstruct the Cubs’ dynasty-that-wasn’t … but it certainly played a leading role.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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