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The Fall Of The Freak

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Wednesday marks the four-year anniversary of the Angels bringing in one of the most accomplished starting pitchers of the previous decade. On May 20, 2016, they signed right-hander Tim Lincecum to a guaranteed contract worth a prorated $2.5MM. Considering Lincecum’s past achievements, it was worth a shot for the pitcher-needy Angels, but the experiment didn’t work out for either side. Lincecum didn’t even finish the season with the Angels, who only won 74 games that year and who designated him for assignment in the first week of August.

Of course, Lincecum brought a superb resume to the Angels. As a member of the Giants from 2007-15, “The Freak” made four All-Star teams, won three World Series championships and took home two National League Cy Young Awards. The San Francisco version of Lincecum also piled up 1,643 2/3 regular-season innings (269 appearances, 261 starts) and posted a 3.61 ERA with 9.33 K/9 and 3.54 BB/9. For the most part, Lincecum’s career started going off the rails in 2012, in which his 2.74 ERA from the prior season skyrocketed to 5.18, but there was still some magic left. Lincecum threw a 148-pitch no-hitter against the Padres in 2013, and he no-hit the Friars yet again the next season.

It was incredible that Lincecum recorded a no-hitter in back-to-back seasons, but shining moments have been few and far between since he underwent hip surgery in his last month as a Giant in September 2015. The Giants didn’t re-sign Lincecum after that, leading him to join the Angels several months later. That gamble couldn’t have gone much worse for the Angels, with whom Lincecum debuted June 18, 2016. It looked like a great move at first, as Lincecum threw six innings of one-run ball in a win over the Athletics in his Halos debut, but that proved to be his sole quality start with the team. Lincecum ultimately amassed 38 1/3 frames of 9.16 ERA pitching as an Angel. His last appearance came Aug. 5, when he yielded six earned runs over 3 1/3 innings in a loss to Seattle, before the Angels put an end to his run in their uniform.

Lincecum did get another shot, this time with the Rangers, on a guaranteed deal in 2018. That didn’t work out, though. The Rangers released Lincecum on June 5, 2018, when MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote: “He’s been ramping up after missing much of the early portion of the season, but things haven’t gone especially well in Triple-A Round Rock. Lincecum has totaled 12 2/3 innings out of the bullpen, yielding eight earned runs on 14 hits and nine walks with 10 strikeouts in that time.”

There hasn’t been any Lincecum news on MLBTR’s pages since then, and even though he hasn’t officially retired, it’s hard to believe the soon-to-be 36-year-old will return to the majors. Lincecum was definitely a treat to watch during his peak from 2008-11, though. He totaled 200-plus innings in each of those seasons, combined for a matching 2.81 ERA/FIP with 9.97 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9, and cemented himself as a Giants icon. Unfortunately, odds are that his time in MLB is done.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants’ Bargain Pickup Looks More Valuable With Universal DH

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With the likely implementation of a universal DH in 2020, we’ve been taking a team-by-team trip through the NL and looking at how those clubs could handle the rule change. To this point, we’ve looked at the Dodgers, Reds, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Braves, Nationals and Brewers. The Giants are up next.

When Hunter Pence bid farewell to the Giants after the 2018 season, there were questions about whether the affable slugger would ever have his name penciled into a big league lineup again. Heading into his age-36 season, he’d posted a combined .249/.297/.368 batting line in 787 plate appearances across the two prior campaigns.

Pence persevered, heading to the Dominican Winter League to work on a revamped swing and ultimately landing a minor league deal with his hometown Rangers. He parlayed that non-guaranteed pact into a prominent role with the Rangers, hitting .297/.358/.552 with 18 dingers in 316 plate appearances before an oblique injury cut his season short. That effort was enough to generate multiple offers, and late in the offseason, Pence signed up for a reunion tour in San Francisco.

The stage seemed set for Pence to hold down a part-time role — an occasional outfielder and frequent pinch-hitter who could serve as a mentor for some younger players as they graduated to the big leagues on a rebuilding club. That could still be the idea, but with the DH likely on its way to the NL, Pence could also be a more prominently used piece now. He started 46 games at designated hitter for Texas last season and surely would have been in that spot more, were it not for the presence of 37-year-old Shin-Soo Choo, who got the DH nod on 62 occasions of his own.

The Giants have other players they can rotate through the DH spot and might look at its addition as a means of getting longer looks at each of Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson and Jaylin Davis — each of whom is best suited for corner outfield work. Against left-handed opponents in particular, the Giants might favor using the DH spot as a means of getting righties Pence, Davis, Austin Slater and Wilmer Flores into the lineup together. Former first-rounder Chris Shaw logged a combined .294/.360/.559 slash with 28 homers in 492 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A last season. He’d add a lefty stick to the mix.

Let’s also not forget a pair of notable minor league signings made by San Francisco this winter: Pablo Sandoval and Darin Ruf. The Kung Fu Panda has batted .259/.311/.466 with 23 homers and 33 doubles in 548 plate appearances since returning to the Giants in 2018. He’s on the mend from Tommy John surgery but should be ready to go if play is able to resume in 2020. Ruf, 33, is returning stateside after dominating the Korea Baseball Organization with a .313/.404/.564 slash through three seasons with the Samsung Lions (2017-19).

Might the universal DH spur the Giants to finally take the plunge on a signing of Yasiel Puig? The two sides have been connected at numerous points over the past several months, and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is quite familiar with Puig after spending five years as the Dodgers’ general manager. Puig could potentially add some life to what was a listless Giants lineup in 2019, ranking in the bottom four of all MLB teams in terms of runs scored, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+. Of course, he’d also take playing time away from some more controllable pieces.

Even if the Giants don’t add to their current group, a new way to increase Pence’s at-bats while keeping him fresh should help that deal to pay dividends. And if there’s some form of updated trade deadline, the addition of a DH spot for the other 14 other NL clubs would only increase interest in acquiring an affordable veteran who is lauded as one of the game’s great clubhouse personalities. There’s also a scenario, as explored by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman, where ballyhooed catching prospect Joey Bart could make his debut and get some additional work thanks to the forthcoming DH slot in the NL.

An Under The Radar Potential Trade Chip In San Francisco

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The Giants’ acquisition of Trevor Gott came without fanfare and at virtually no cost; he was acquired from the Nationals last February for cash considerations, part of a seemingly endless churn at the back end of the 40-man roster in Farhan Zaidi’s first season at the helm. Gott might find himself back on the trade market this season (if play becomes feasible), and he’d figure to return quite a bit more than cash this time around.

Gott had a somewhat promising debut with the 2015 Angels, riding a monster 57.2% ground ball rate to a 3.02 ERA in 48 games. He was flipped to Washington that offseason for Yunel Escobar, but his career went off the rails. In parts of three seasons, he compiled a brutal 7.39 ERA over 28 innings with an uninspiring 24:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Quietly, he found a new gear in San Francisco last year, even if his 4.44 ERA wouldn’t suggest it. His strikeout rate spiked to 26.6%, well above his 17.8% mark in Washington and nearly twice as high as that of his time in Anaheim. The 27-year-old also made significant improvements as a strike-thrower. His first-pitch strike rate was up to 60.3%, right around league average. Getting ahead early in counts helped him cut down on walks substantially.

Gott has always been a fastball-reliant arm, but he seemingly changed the shape of his heater. Formerly a sinkerballer, Gott pivoted to heavy use of a four-seam last season, per Brooks Baseball. Predictably, his once elite ground ball numbers vanished, but he more than offset that with a jump in strikeouts. His mid-90’s four-seam fastball doesn’t have the spin and life of the game’s best heaters, but it nevertheless proved a better swing-and-miss offering than his sinker. On the surface, it also seems he had an easier time controlling the straighter offering.

So why was Gott’s run prevention mediocre? Sequencing luck, mostly. Despite holding opposing hitters to a .207/.270/.304 slash, he only stranded 62.5% of baserunners in 2019, an abnormally low mark that figures to rebound. If he can strand runners at something approaching the league average rate of 72.3% (pitchers’ strand rates often vary wildly season-to-season), Gott could be a mid-3.00’s ERA type.

The shortened season and potential expanded postseason would give the Giants a better shot of hanging in contention. Even in this environment, they won’t be considered any kind of favorite, though. Gott would make for a solid, under-the-radar addition to the summer trade market if San Francisco struggles. He comes with three additional seasons of team control, and arbitration salaries for middle relievers are relatively modest.

He wouldn’t return any sort of Godfather offer, but three-plus cheap seasons of an average or better reliever would be plenty valuable to a more immediate contender. Subtle breakthroughs like Gott’s are precisely what Zaidi and the SF front office have hoped to achieve with their constant reshuffling at the back of the roster.

Quick Hits: Puig, Giants, Daniels, Starling

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Let’s check in on three of the majors’ franchises…

  • A report over the weekend all but placed free-agent outfielder Yasiel Puig in a Giants uniform. Henry Schulman of the San Francisco doesn’t seem nearly as confident a deal will come together, though, and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic via text, “We are not having any conversations (internal or external) about player transactions at this point.” However, as Baggarly notes, that doesn’t mean a Puig signing isn’t under consideration. There’s a freeze on transactions because of the coronavirus, so even if the Giants do intend to pick up Puig, they’ll have to continue to wait to make the move. For what it’s worth, it wasn’t long ago that the Giants reportedly showed interest in Puig, who has a couple important connections in San Francisco. Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler were both members of the Dodgers organization during at least part of Puig’s run with the Giants’ archrivals from 2013-18.
  • Optimism about a 2020 season getting underway seems to be growing. One idea that came to the forefront last week includes a three-state plan in which Arizona, Florida and Texas would divvy up the games. Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels spoke about that with Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, saying: “For a variety of factors, it makes a lot of sense. We’ve had some involvement from a due diligence standpoint, but I would not want to overstate that piece of it. I think [Dodgers president] Stan Kasten said about one percent of all ideas have become public; there have been a lot of ideas. That’s just one.” If a season does occur, the Rangers – after a fairly aggressive winter – will look to bounce back from three straight sub-.500 campaigns. Their roster doesn’t seem likely to undergo any more significant changes before a potential season happens. Asked how much time the Rangers have recently spent talking to other teams about upgrading their club, Daniels told Grant, “Very little; close to none.”
  • Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star details how Royals outfielder Bubba Starling is dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. As you’d expect, Starling is hoping to return to the field as soon as possible. The out-of-options 27-year-old had been competing to earn a roster spot before spring training shut down. Starling’s a former No. 5 overall draft pick in 2011 who had a run as an outstanding MLB prospect, but his career hasn’t gone according to plan thus far. He debuted in the majors last year and batted just .215/.255/.317 over 197 plate appearances. Starling also hasn’t been very productive in Triple-A ball, where he has hit .255/.305/.376 in 805 attempts, but he could still make a rebuilding KC team that’s in position to give chances to unproven players.

NL West Notes: Giants, Espinoza, Rockies

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Much of the focus on the trade that sent right-hander Mark Melancon from the Giants to the Braves last July has centered on the surprising fact that the Braves were willing to take on all of the $14MM owed to Melancon in 2020. So much so, it seems, that the return the Giants received is often entirely overlooked. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes, however, that the Giants are excited by the potential of righty Tristan Beck — a 23-year-old fourth rounder from the 2018 draft who saw his velocity trend upward during his run in the Arizona Fall League this year. Beck posted an ugly ERA (5.65) but encouraging FIP/xFIP numbers (3.04, 2.89) in eight starts with Atlanta’s Class-A Advanced affiliate. In the same number of innings with the Giants’ High-A club, Beck’s ERA dropped to 2.27 as he maintained sharp K/9 and BB/9 marks that carried into the fall league. Baseball America ranked Beck 14th among Giants prospects and called him a potential fourth starter, noting that his new organization’s decision to shift his four-seam focus to the top of the zone has improved his overall effectiveness.

A bit more from the division…

  • Padres prospect Anderson Espinoza had been eyeing a summer return from last April’s Tommy John surgery, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic in his latest reader mailbag. His timeline is now TBD, and the leaguewide stoppage has created the risk that he’ll miss an incredible fourth straight season of games. Still just 22 years of age, Espinoza was considered to be one of baseball’s premier minor league arms when the Red Sox shipped him to San Diego in return for a year and a half of Drew Pomeranz. But he’s twice undergone Tommy John surgery — most recently late last April — and now represents something of a wild card in a deep Padres farm system. His last appearance in a minor league game came back on Aug. 31, 2016.
  • Although no one quite knows what the draft will look like, Rockies scouting director Bill Schmidt is confident that his club is prepared and ready whenever the date does roll around, per Kyle Newman of the Denver Post. Rox scout Jay Matthews expressed to Newman that the ability to connect with players will be all the more crucial this year, as nondrafted players will be capped at just $20K signing bonuses. “Since we’re all going to be under the same money figure for free agents, it’s going to come down to relationships that the area scouts have established with the prospects,” said Matthews, likening this year’s atypical signing process for undrafted players to the college recruiting process. Newman points out that the Rockies have trended toward college players in recent drafts, with a particular emphasis on pitching. Colorado will have three of the first 46 picks in the draft — whatever form it takes.

Quick Hits: Phillies, Employee Pay, Cardinals, Goldschmidt, Pirates, Shelton, Kela

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Phillies owner John Middleton informed the team’s employees Friday that no one will be laid off or forced to take a pay cut through at least the end of May, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. “I am neither an epidemiologist nor a public policy maker, but I do know our industry, and it is my sincere belief that baseball will be played this year,” Middleton wrote in a letter, adding that there’s no reason to reduce the club’s budget when he’s under the impression that “a meaningful number of games” will take place in 2020. The Phillies are just the second team to commit to no cuts through May, joining the division-rival Braves. More teams are expected to follow, however, with the Giants the latest team to make the commitment, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

  • The Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt has set up camp in his Jupiter-area home during the quarantine, but he’s finding new ways to keep his head in the game. Thanks to a virtual reality product from WIN Reality, Goldschmidt can simulate at-bats against any pitcher in the game, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goldschmidt got enough exposure to live pitching in spring training to fully test his new virtual reality gear, and he came away impressed with its accuracy. Goldy is working out in more traditional ways as well, but the VR gear is giving him an opportunity to rest his elbow while still simulating game experience.
  • The Pirates under Clint Hurdle became known for contentious run-ins with other teams due to their proclivity for throwing up and in. The bad rap was furthered by pitchers Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow developing into aces once having left Pittsburgh. But Derek Shelton runs the dugout in Pittsburgh now, and it remains to be seen how the culture will change under new leadership. Shelton spoke to some of his tendencies, however, including how he will let statistics and the extenuating circumstances determine how often he lets his starters go through a lineup a third time (as much as how the pitcher is performing on any given day), per Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Shelton also spoke about the closer role, where he expects Keone Kela to serve as a traditional closer.

Which Players Will Reach 10-And-5 Rights This Year?

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As players continue to bounce around the league with greater frequency for a variety of reasons — teams leaning increasingly toward shorter-term deals, financial incentive to reach free agency, etc. — the number of players gaining 10-and-5 rights have diminished in recent years. For those unfamiliar or those who need a reminder, 10-and-5 rights are granted to a player who has accrued 10 years of MLB service time, including five consecutive years with his current team. These players are given veto power over any potential trade involving them.

It’s rare that a player invokes his 10-and-5 rights, although we’ve seen them come into play in the past. Adam Jones utilized his 10-and-5 provision to block a deal to the Phillies two summer ago, and Brandon Phillips quashed a pair of trades that would’ve sent him out of Cincinnati before he finally acquiesced on a deal sending him to Atlanta.

In other cases, such as Coco Crisp’s trade from Oakland back to Cleveland in 2016, players are willing to waive that veto power for the right deal and/or some additional financial incentive. Those rights were a major factor in the Rays’ decision to trade Evan Longoria when they did; had he opened the 2018 season with Tampa Bay, he’d have gained full no-trade power just two days into the year.

As a reminder, players will receive a year of service time even if no games are played in 2020. And if a season is played, the service time will be prorated to match the truncated nature of the season. In other words, current big leaguers are going to get their year of service unless they’re optioned to the minors or released.

With all that said, some 10-and-5 rights looming on the horizon (I’ve omitted players such as Buster Posey, whose contracts already included full no-trade protection)…

  • Kenley Jansen: Jansen’s five-year, $80MM contract with the Dodgers didn’t include a no-trade clause, although it does pay him a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. Jansen has nine years, 73 days (9.073) of MLB service time, so he’ll clear 10 years of service in 2020 with or without a season. As such, he’ll have full no-trade power next winter, when he’d have one year and $20MM remaining on his contract.
  • Jason Heyward: Heyward is getting to the elusive 10-and-5 status in a bit of a different manner. He’s already reached 10 years of service, and once this year elapses, he’ll have spent five years in a Cubs uniform. His contract allows him to block deals to a dozen teams of his choosing in 2020, but he’ll gain full no-trade power next winter. His contract would be cumbersome to move in the first place, given the four years and $86MM remaining on his deal at the moment.
  • Johnny Cueto: Like Heyward, Cueto already has the requisite decade of MLB service, but he’s only spent four years with his current team. Next offseason, Cueto will have spent five seasons as a Giant, giving him veto power if the club wants to trade the sixth season of that deal and the subsequent club option. He’s owed $21MM in 2021 and a $5MM buyout on his 2022 club option.
  • Freddie Freeman: There’s no real reason to think the Braves would be entertaining the notion of trading a player who has long been considered the face of the franchise (even if Ronald Acuna Jr. is now taking over that title), but Freeman’s eight-year, $135MM contract didn’t contain any no-trade protection and he currently has 9.033 years of service. He’s owed $22MM in 2021, the final season of his current contract, but an extension seems likelier than a trade.

Recapping Farhan Zaidi’s Trades As Giants’ President

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Farhan Zaidi was hired as the Giants’ president of baseball operations from the archrival Dodgers in November 2018. The club has largely eschewed headline-grabbing moves since, but the front office has been as active as any on the waiver wire. That emphasis on low-cost additions to the margins of the roster has extended to the trade market. It’s still too early to judge Zaidi’s overall body of work, but some of the lesser-heralded names have produced strong early returns.

Equally as noteworthy as the deals Zaidi has made are the ones he hasn’t. The club didn’t move impending free agents Madison Bumgarner or Will Smith at last summer’s deadline. In Zaidi’s defense, the club sat at 55-53 last July 31, just two games back of the second NL Wild Card (and eventual World Series champion) Nationals. They surely also considered the draft compensation they were in line to receive this winter if each signed elsewhere as qualified free agents (as both ultimately did). Yet the Giants never looked especially likely to make a deep playoff run (Fangraphs gave them just a 5.9% shot of reaching the postseason at the time). There was certainly a case to be made they should’ve acted as a decisive seller. Instead, they pursued something of a middle-ground, trading away a few notable relievers while also making further marginal acquisitions.

With that second-guessing out of the way, we’ll turn to the moves Zaidi’s front office has struck since he took charge in SF (excluding the most minor transactions).

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

How would you grade Zaidi’s first year-plus on the trade market? (Poll link for app users).

Grade Farhan Zaidi's Trades As Giants' President.
B 34.70% (2,220 votes)
C 33.44% (2,139 votes)
D 13.38% (856 votes)
A 11.29% (722 votes)
F 7.19% (460 votes)
Total Votes: 6,397

Curious to look back on additional GMs and their trade histories?

We’ve already polled on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Padres GM A.J. Preller, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander, ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, Reds GM Dick Williams, Orioles GM Mike Elias and former Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart.

NL Notes: Crawford, Kim, Mikolas, Cecil, Johnson

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Brandon Crawford gave the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea a rundown of his daily routine, as the Giants shortstop is busy balancing his time with his wife and four young children alongside workouts and engaging in whatever baseball activities he can manage from his house.  On this particular day, for example, Crawford and the Giants’ team yoga instructor met via video conferencing for a session “based on baseball mobility and movements that we need,” Crawford said.

Some more from the National League…

  • While Crawford is one of many players staying at home with his family during the shutdown, newly-signed Cardinals left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim is in St. Louis while his family is in South Korea.  Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that Kim could potentially return to Korea while Major League Baseball is on hiatus.  “I can only imagine the mental challenge [Kim is] under with his wife and children back in South Korea, trying to adapt to a new country, a new team, and then have all this thrust upon him,” Mozeliak said.  “So we’re trying to navigate that as best we can, but…clearly this has not been easy for him, and I think all of us could understand why.”
  • From that same teleconference earlier this week, Mozeliak also provided updates on some injured Cardinals players.  Miles Mikolas continues to make progress after suffering a flexor tendon strain in February and receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection, as Mikolas will soon throw a bullpen session and is currently throwing from 120 feet.  Brett Cecil recently took time off from his hamstring injury rehab for personal reasons, but Mozeliak said Cecil will resume the process next week.  Cecil suffered what manager Mike Shildt described as a “fairly significant” right hamstring strain in mid-March, and while no specific timeline was put in place, it was thought that Cecil was facing “multiple weeks of treatment.”
  • After pitching in Japan in 2019, Pierce Johnson signed a two-year, $5MM deal with the Padres this offseason to mark his return to North American baseball.  As Johnson told Fangraphs’ David Laurila, “a few other teams kicked the tires” on the right-hander’s availability, and he also came “really close to taking” an offer to remain with the Hanshin Tigers.  Ultimately, Johnson chose the Padres and MLB in order to bring his family back closer to home.  Johnson posted only a 5.44 ERA over his 44 2/3 career Major League innings with the Cubs and Giants in 2017-18, though his season in Nippon Professional Baseball greatly elevated his stock, as the righty posted a 1.38 ERA, 14.0 K/9, and 7.00 K/BB rate over 58 2/3 relief innings for the Tigers.

Prospect Faceoff: Bart vs. Rutschman

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The parallels between the Giants’ Joey Bart and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman are plentiful. Both were standout catchers at reputable Division-I schools –Bart at Georgia Tech and Rutschman at Oregon State. Bart was in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 but went second overall to San Francisco. A year later, in 2019, Rutschman went No. 1 overall to Baltimore. Both draw significant praise for their defensive skills — each received a 60-grade on the 20-80 scale at both FanGraphs and MLB.com — as well as their raw power (again, both 60s). They’re widely considered to be the top two catching prospects in the game.

Joey Bart | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Bart 23, is about 14 months older than Rutschman and has already climbed as high as Double-A on the minor league ladder. He spent most of the 2019 season in Class-A Advanced, hitting .265/.315/.479 (116 wRC+) before a 22-game stint in Double-A where he finished on a tear: .316/.368/.544 (163 wRC+). Bart went on to the Arizona Fall League and hit .333/.524/.767 with four homers in 42 plate appearances before a broken thumb cut his AFL stint short. He could stand to improve his plate discipline (6.2 percent walk rate), but Bart also didn’t strike out at a particularly alarming rate (21 percent).

Behind the plate, Bart posted a rather pedestrian 27 percent caught-stealing rate across those two minor league levels before absolutely owning the run game in the AFL, where he caught nine of the 13 runners who attempted to take a base against him. Scouting reports praise his receiving and framing abilities as well as his ability to block pitches in the dirt — all things you’d expect for a catcher who was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year prior to being drafted in 2018. With Buster Posey’s contract winding down and his production waning, it’s not out of the question to think that Bart could debut in 2020 if the season is able to get underway at some point. If not, a 2021 debut should be considered likely, barring some major injury.

The 22-year-old Rutschman, meanwhile, is obviously further from the Majors but offers many of the same skills. He’s touted as a high-end defensive catcher with a strong arm behind the plate and plenty of pop with the bat. Rutschman hit .254/.351/.423 with a hearty 13 percent walk rate through 154 plate appearances in his pro debut, topping out with Class-A Delmarva. He struck out in just 17.5 percent of those plate appearances, although it’s worth pointing out that he really hasn’t faced any pitching that’s older and more experienced than he is just yet.

Adley Rutschman | Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike Bart, Rutschman is a switch-hitter. He has power from both sides of the dish even if most reports agree that his left-handed swing is superior to his right-handed swing. He threw out seven of the 11 hitters who tried to steal against him in his limited pro debut and, by all accounts, should be adept at controlling runners, calling a game, blocking pitches in the dirt and framing. It’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be in the Majors by 2022 — and a 2021 debut isn’t all that far-fetched (depending on any service time games the Orioles do or don’t feel like playing).

Given that Bart and Rutschman were elite college catchers who went within the first two picks of a draft class in consecutive seasons, this likely isn’t the only place you’ll see the two of them compared in the coming years. Rutschman is generally ranked more highly on prospect lists, although not by much in some cases. He’s No. 4 to Bart’s 14 at MLB.com and No. 5 against Bart’s 10 at FanGraphs. Other publications have a bit more distance between them, including Baseball America (Rutschman at 5, Bart at 32), Baseball Prospectus (Rutschman at 4, Bart at 25) and The Athletic (Rutschman at 10, Bart at 44). Prospect rankings are in a constant state of flux, though, and the pair is close enough that the consensus opinion could easily change in a few months’ time.

It’s clear that both are expected to become high-end catchers with All-Star potential, but let’s open up the debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Which prospect would you rather have?
Adley Rutschman 61.10% (2,844 votes)
Joey Bart 38.90% (1,811 votes)
Total Votes: 4,655
Show all

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