Mariners Rumors

Rosenthal’s Latest: Greinke, Santana, Angels, Harper, Orioles, Machado

By TC Zencka | November 12, 2018 at 9:33am CDT

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests teams in need of pitching should take a second look at Diamondbacks ace Zack Greinke. With Arizona set to lose Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock to free agency, the Dbacks are, unwittingly maybe, staring down a period of transition. The $34.8MM the 35-year-old Greinke is owed yearly might seem like a bitter pill to swallow, but there are ways of diverting a portion of that cost to make the contract palatable. The Rangers and Diamondbacks, for instance, reportedly discussed a Greinke deal last offseason wherein the Rangers would have offset the AAV by sending Shin-Soo Choo the other way. Another strategy to offset that cost is straight cash. However it’s done, getting Greinke’s AAV down to the range of $20MM to $25MM might make him an attractive, shorter-term alternative to a free agent like Dallas Keuchel on a five-year pact, given that Greinke is now essentially on a three-year deal. So long as he’s priced appropriately, the Diamondbacks could move him. Whether or not they should depends on the cost. Be sure to check out the entire article here (subscription link), but for now, here are more snippets from Rosenthal on high-priced veterans from around the league…

Unlike the Dbacks with Greinke, the Mariners are likely stuck with their veterans, given the sticker price of right-hander Felix Hernandez, third baseman Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano. In the context of the Greinke conversation, moving Cano almost seems plausible, as he’s only a year older than Greinke and owed almost $15MM less per season, but whereas Greinke isn’t much diminished from peak form, Cano is not long removed from an 80-game suspension, signed for two years longer and likely to move down the defensive hierarchy next season, from second base to either first or designated hitter.
Rosenthal quotes a rival executive who says the Phillies are “shopping the hell” out of first baseman Carlos Santana. If they could move off the two years and more than $35MM owed to Santana, the Phils would love to move Rhys Hoskins back to first, since he recorded an unsightly -24 DRS in left field last season. Adam Dunn is the only left fielder to record less defensive runs saved in a single season since 2003, when Sports Info Solutions introduced the data. For Santana’s part, he’s been decent defensively at first over the last few seasons with the Indians and Phillies, even managing 1 DRS in 119 innings at third for the Phils last year. Still, he’s probably more of an asset to an American League team where he could cycle in and out of the designated hitter slot.
The Angels, as well, are looking to shed salary in the form of Kole Calhoun or Blake Parker. Matt Shoemaker, after missing most of last season, is a non-tender candidate as well. The Angels are wary of dipping into their farm system to improve the major-league squad, as they’ve worked hard to rebuild their prospect pool. Still, they have a relatively desperate need for pitching and are, therefore, looking to shed salary where they can.
Rosenthal quotes an anonymous agent with an interesting take on the Bryce Harper saga in Washington. The agent theorizes that GM Mike Rizzo is largely extricating himself from the process moving forward, instead moving aggressively to fill the Nationals’ other needs and leaving ownership to make the final verdict on Harper. Of course, creating a better baseball situation in Washington surely won’t hurt in the pursuit of Harper either.
Also in Washington, the Nats could see a boost to their finances if their dispute with the Orioles over rights fees from the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) is settled, as expected, by MLB’s internal arbitration panel. An appeals process could still be at hand, but baseball officials hope both teams will live with whatever verdict comes down from the Revenue Sharing Definition Committee, which consists of Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, Mariners CEO Kevin Mather and Toronto CEO Mark Shapiro. In dispute is over $200MM in rights fees from 2012 to 2016. If the hearing goes as expected, the Nats will see an influx of cash that should grant them future payroll flexibility. Before you ask – no, the matter will not likely be settled in time to aid in the wooing of Harper.
For the Orioles part in the above dispute, Rosenthal suggests it wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Orioles’ next front office hires to include someone in good standing with the MLB office. Along with the more explicit organizational issues, Baltimore has also apparently had a poor relationship with the league office as well. A portion of the discord stems from the above dispute with the Nationals over rights fees for the Orioles’ owned MASN, but there’s also suspicions that Camden Yards has somewhat unfairly been passed over for the All-Star game in recent years. Camden Yards was a forerunner for the way modern sports facility are built, but they have not hosted an All-Star game since its second year of existence in 1993. Other organizations have longer droughts in this regard, but the missed opportunity to honor the 25th anniversary of Camden Yards in 2017 still stings.
As for the free agent market’s other big fish, Rosenthal quotes the Athletic’s Jayson Stark who hears that the Yankees are doing more than their due diligence to get first-hand accounts of Manny Machado’s character. They likely won’t be disappointed by what they hear, as those close to Machado have nothing but good things to say, while recognizing the occasional on-field gaff.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

By Connor Byrne | November 11, 2018 at 4:58pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Mariners are coming off a season in which they posted their highest win total (89) since 2003. And yet Seattle still didn’t come close to earning a playoff berth in the American League, which featured five teams with at least 97 victories, and has now gone 17 straight years without making the postseason. No North American professional sports franchise owns a longer playoff drought than the Mariners, who want to “re-imagine” their roster this winter, according to general manager Jerry Dipoto. The trade-minded executive got right to work Wednesday, just over a week after the offseason began, making a headline-grabbing deal with the Rays.

Guaranteed Contracts

Robinson Cano, 2B: $120MM through 2023
Jean Segura, SS: $57MM through 2022 (includes buyout of 2023 club option)
Kyle Seager, 3B: $56MM through 2021
Mike Leake, SP: $27MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 mutual option)
Dee Gordon, 2B/OF: $27.5MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 club option)
Felix Hernandez, SP: $27MM through 2019
Juan Nicasio, RP: $9MM through 2019
Wade LeBlanc, SP: $3.35MM through 2019 (includes buyouts of 2020-22 club options)

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

James Paxton – $9.0MM
Alex Colome – $7.3MM
Roenis Elias – $1.0MM

Contract Options

Denard Span, OF: Declined $12MM mutual option in favor of $4MM buyout

Free Agents

Span, Nelson Cruz, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Erasmo Ramirez, Nick Vincent, Justin Grimm, Ryan Cook, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Romine, Gordon Beckham

[Mariners Depth Chart | Mariners Payroll Information]

The Mariners put up a quality record in 2018, but they did so while allowing 34 more runs than they scored – a sign the team may not have been as close to contention as it appeared. The six AL teams that finished ahead of Seattle – including Houston and Oakland, both of which are in the Mariners’ division – posted run differentials ranging from plus-70 to plus-263, perhaps leading Dipoto to say this week that the clubs ahead of his “are not ahead of us by a little.” As a result, the Mariners entered the offseason weighing some significant roster changes. However, indications are that the M’s will neither fully rebuild nor go all in toward breaking their playoff drought, which would require a noteworthy increase over their franchise-record Opening Day payroll from last season ($157.9MM-plus).

Factoring in projected arbitration salaries, Seattle already has upward of $151.5MM going toward next year’s roster, Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates. The team may be primed to shave some of that cash prior to next season, as it did when it declined outfielder Denard Span’s option for 2019 and made its deal with the Rays. The swap included five players but featured three experienced major leaguers, with catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia going to Tampa Bay and center fielder Mallex Smith heading to Seattle.

In landing Smith, the Mariners took care of one need but created another, leaving catcher as a position they must address. Compared to the typical offensive player, Zunino registered a less-than-stellar offensive season in 2018, but his wRC+ (84) was exactly average for his position, and he continued to provide plus defense. With that in mind, it’ll be tough for the M’s to find a similarly priced, similarly effective replacement for Zunino in free agency or via trade.

Considering how weak their farm system is, the Mariners won’t be able to swing a deal for Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, who’s easily the premier trade candidate at the position. But Greg Johns of MLB.com noted Friday that Dipoto could look to acquire a more attainable major league backstop such as Jorge Alfaro, Yan Gomes, Roberto Perez, Kevin Plawecki, James McCann or Blake Swihart. With the exception of McCann, who’s only arbitration eligible for two more years, all of those players are controllable for the foreseeable future. Any of those non-McCann catchers could be better fits for the Mariners than Realmuto when taking the team’s timeline into account, though needless to say, Realmuto’s vastly superior to each of them.

Looking at the free-agent market, Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos are miles better than their competition, and both should command expensive deals of at least three years. If the Mariners are going to make a splash in free agency, it might be for one of them (though, because Grandal’s a qualifying offer recipient, signing him would also cost a draft pick). Otherwise, Kurt Suzuki, Robinson Chirinos, Martin Maldonado, Jonathan Lucroy, Devin Mesoraco, Matt Wieters and Brian McCann represent free-agent starting options who are candidates to sign as stopgap starters.

The Zunino-less Mariners clearly have a gaping hole behind the plate, but they did save money and gain at least one potential long-term piece when they said goodbye to him. Zunino’s projected to earn $4.3MM via arbitration in 2019, his second-last year of control, while Smith still has another pre-arb season left and won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2022. For Seattle, the hope is that the breakout the fleet-of-foot Smith experienced in 2018 will carry over. If so, he and star right fielder Mitch Haniger will make for an enviable tandem for the foreseeable future. Left field looks less settled as of now, but the lefty-swinging Ben Gamel did notch adequate production in an 843-plate appearance run from 2017-18. Considering Gamel’s output thus far, Seattle may roll with him as a cheap starter next year, though it could at least a seek a right-handed hitter to platoon with him now that Heredia’s gone.

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Back to Smith, who combined above-average production at the plate (.773 OPS) and on the bases (40 steals, 6.6 BsR) with scratch defense (two DRS, minus-0.5 UZR, zero OAA) en route to a 3.5-win campaign in 2018. Conversely, Seattle’s center fielders offered bottom-of-the-barrel production, as they logged a sub-.650 OPS and the majors’ fifth-worst fWAR (minus-0.2). The main culprits were Heredia and Dee Gordon.

A career-long middle infielder until the Mariners got him from the Marlins last winter, the 30-year-old Gordon was miscast in center, and the speedster also limped through one of his worst seasons at the plate. Should the 30-year-old return to Seattle next season, it seems likely he’ll go back to primarily occupying second base, where he was quite valuable as recently as 2017. It’s unclear if Gordon will stick around, though, as the Mariners have another high-profile second baseman in the big-hitting Robinson Cano, who’s owed $24MM per annum through 2023, has a full no-trade clause and is coming off a PED suspension-shortened season.

With Smith and Cano prominently in the mix, the Mariners could deem Gordon redundant and attempt to move him. The trouble is that there are plenty of veteran second basemen available in free agency who should ink more palatable contracts than Gordon’s, meaning the M’s may have difficulty finding a taker for him at his current rate of pay. If that ends up being the case, the Mariners could ultimately retain Gordon and hope for a bounce-back season at second. In that scenario, there would still be room for Cano, who’d factor in at DH and every infield position but shortstop.

Assuming expensive third baseman Kyle Seager hangs around after a career-worst season, Cano wouldn’t get many reps at third in 2019, though first and DH look wide open at the moment. While the Mariners do have a trio of 20-something first base options on their 40-man roster in Ryon Healy, Daniel Vogelbach and Joey Curletta, both Healy and Vogelbach have fallen flat in the majors, and Curletta hasn’t advanced past the Double-A level. At DH, the Mariners could lose free agent Nelson Cruz, who was one of their offensive centerpieces from 2015-18. Cruz was tremendous during that span, and Dipoto has heaped praise on him on multiple occasions in recent weeks, but the slugger’s age (39 next July) and inability to line up in the field work against the chances of a reunion between the sides.

Shortly after the season ended, Dipoto suggested Seattle may move on from having a DH-only player, and then he revealed while confirming the Smith/Zunino trade the club has a “desire to build a younger, more athletic and exciting roster.” Cruz offers oodles of excitement as a hitter, but he doesn’t exactly check the youth and athleticism boxes – not to mention that re-signing him could mean ponying up around $15MM per year. Of course, Cruz’s departure would be an enormous blow to a Seattle offense which, despite his efforts, finished just 21st in runs last season. Thus, if Seattle plans on staying competitive in the near term, it could look for a hitter who could ease the pain of Cruz’s exit to a degree.

Some potential trade targets who likely wouldn’t come at prohibitive costs (either in terms of the return they’d merit or their salaries) and could divide time between the field and DH include Jose Martinez, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, C.J. Cron, Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich, Nicholas Castellanos, and ex-Mariners Justin Smoak and Eric Thames. Admittedly, however, the majority of those fits are imperfect. Martinez is a horrid defender at first and in the outfield; Renfroe owns a .296 on-base percentage in 956 major league plate appearances; and, Reyes aside, the other names are only under control for one or two more years apiece. Dipoto may not be in position to rob from an already barren farm system to trade for a stopgap, especially when there are some capable first base/DH types in free agency who should only be able to find short-term, low-cost contracts. It’s also possible the Mariners will simply give the young and inexpensive Healy and Vogelbach duo another chance to emerge as useful hitters, particularly if they’re not expecting to contend in 2019.

It’s debatable whether Healy and Vogelbach should have key roles next year, but that’s not the case with Haniger, who may be the Mariners’ franchise player at this point. Considering his excellent on-field performance and four remaining years of control – including another pre-arb season – no Mariner would bring back more in a trade than the 27-year-old Haniger. However, Dipoto has expressed a desire to “build around” the likes of Haniger, left-handed starter Marco Gonzales (five years of control) and closer Edwin Diaz (four years), indicating that trio is unlikely to go anywhere. On the other hand, the Mariners’ No. 1 starter, southpaw James Paxton, is seemingly on the outs as he enters his penultimate winter of arbitration eligibility.

Among realistic trade chips, Paxton looks like the Mariners’ most enticing player, and multiple sources have told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that they will indeed part with him this offseason. Obviously, though, it would be tricky for the M’s to both trade Paxton and hang around the playoff race next year. After all, even if the Mariners keep Paxton, their rotation would be in need of upgrades. The unit finished 2018 subpar in ERA (21st) and middle of the pack in fWAR (13th), and as of now, only Paxton, Gonzales and Mike Leake look like good bets to offer average or better production next season. Of their other major league options, the once-great Felix Hernandez’s career has gone in the tank; Wade LeBlanc was good as a starter in 2018, but judging by his career, he’s hardly a lock to replicate that performance; and Roenis Elias has typically been a back-end starter, though he did excel as a reliever last season. Moreover, unlike the division-rival Astros (Forrest Whitley) and A’s (Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk), the Mariners don’t have any big-time starting prospects knocking on the door of the bigs. That could change if they acquire one in a Paxton package.

Paxton aside, surely the M’s would entertain removing Leake or Hernandez from their staff via trade. However, a deal may be hard to come by in the case of Leake – who, despite being a respectable innings eater, is costly and has a full no-trade clause – and jettisoning Hernandez would be close to impossible. At the very least, Hernandez will remain a Mariner in 2019. The same likely applies to shortstop Jean Segura, though he’d be among the Mariners’ most valuable trade pieces if they were to shop him. There are “growing” concerns in Seattle about Segura’s attitude, according to Divish, so perhaps the team will seriously consider moving him. Segura did get into a clubhouse altercation with Gordon last season, but on the field, he managed to post 3.0 or more fWAR for the third straight season. He’s also relatively young (29 in March) and affordable (four years, $58MM). Aside from Manny Machado, who will be out of most teams’ price ranges, free agency doesn’t have a better shortstop than Segura. Adding all of that up, it’s likely he’ll draw plenty of interest this offseason. However, bidding adieu to Segura would send Dipoto scrambling for a satisfactory replacement, which wouldn’t be easy to find.

Moving to Seattle’s bullpen, right-handers Alex Colome and Juan Nicasio jump out as pricey arms who aren’t under control for much longer and could find themselves on the block. The 29-year-old Colome, whom the Mariners acquired from the Rays last May, is coming off his third season as a full-time reliever. He was successful in each of those seasons, as his combined 2.78 ERA and 96 saves help illustrate. With two arb-eligible years left, Colome would have value on the market. Nicasio wouldn’t be as appealing, on the other hand, as he’s owed $9MM in 2019 (his final year of control) and coming off an injury-shortened season in which he managed a 6.00 ERA in 42 innings. However, ERA estimators were bullish on Nicasio, in part because he recorded exemplary strikeout and walk numbers (11.36 K/9, 1.07 BB/9).

While the bullpen is one of many areas that could see significant changes for the Mariners prior to the 2019 campaign, it’s difficult to envision the team accomplishing enough this offseason to break its playoff drought next year. However, from a big-picture standpoint, Dipoto could still put the Mariners in a better place if he finds legitimate long-term pieces this winter and improves a farm system which was toward the bottom of the majors when he took over in September 2015 and remains among the league’s dregs today.

Astros Interested In James Paxton

By Connor Byrne | November 11, 2018 at 8:53am CDT

The Mariners are set to retool this offseason, leaving few to no untouchables on their roster. Left-hander James Paxton has emerged as arguably their highest-profile trade candidate early this offseason, and he’s drawing interest from an array of teams, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Astros are part of that group, Rosenthal reports.

As World Series contenders who are seeking starters, the Astros are a logical match for Paxton. Although the club had an elite rotation in 2018, it could lose both Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, and it just found out Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Those factors leave aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole as the Astros’ only rotation locks at the moment, though it seems they’ll return veteran Collin McHugh to a starting role after he thrived as a reliever last season. But those three are only signed through next season, whereas Paxton’s controllable through 2020.

Even if the Astros do move McHugh back to their rotation next season, they’ll still be short on established starters. Swingman Brad Peacock and a series of youngsters – including Forrest Whitley (perhaps the game’s best pitching prospect) and Josh James – are among their other rotation possibilities.

Notably, Seattle and Houston are in the same division, which in theory could make a trade unlikely. However, if the Mariners don’t see themselves as near-term contenders in the AL West, their mindset should be to take the best possible offer. The Astros may be in position to make the most generous proposal for the 30-year-old Paxton, given that they own one of the majors’ best farm systems. Houston will face plenty of competition, though, including from the AL rival Yankees.

While the flamethrowing Paxton comes with a troubling injury history and has never approached the 200-inning mark in a season, he’s still among the game’s top starters on a per-inning basis. Paxton’s affordable control only adds to his value, as he’s projected to earn a reasonable $9MM in 2019.

Looking For A Match In A James Paxton Trade

By Connor Byrne | November 10, 2018 at 11:30pm CDT

Earlier this week, the Mariners and Rays made the offseason’s first major trade, a five-player swap in which catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Mallex Smith changed teams. That may prove to be the first of multiple noteworthy deals Mariners trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto orchestrates this winter, especially considering his intention to “re-imagine” his team’s roster. The majority of that roster is available for trade, Jon Heyman of Fancred reported prior to the Zunino deal, though he added that outfielder Mitch Haniger, closer Edwin Diaz and left-handed Marco Gonzales appear safe.

The most interesting name missing from Heyman’s list is Gonzalez’s fellow southpaw starter James Paxton, who’s Seattle’s closest thing to an ace. With the 30-year-old Paxton down to his final two seasons of team control, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times has heard that the Mariners will trade him this winter.

While Paxton does have a checkered injury history and has only exceeded 160 innings in a year once (last season, when he tallied 160 1/3), the fireballer is still one of the majors’ premier lefties. Paxton has averaged just 24 starts and 139 innings a season since 2016, his breakout campaign, but the Big Maple nonetheless racked up 11.9 fWAR during that three-year span. In that regard, only 12 starters bettered Paxton, who’s sandwiched between Noah Syndergaard and Luis Severino. And since 2017, Paxton ranks fourth among starters in K/9 (11.06), fifth in FIP (2.95), 11th in K/BB ratio (4.61) and tied for 21st in ERA (3.40).

Paxton’s projected to earn $9MM in 2019, a far lighter commitment than the best free-agent starters will rake in this winter, which only adds to his appeal. Acquiring Paxton would still sting a team to a degree, of course, as that club would presumably need to part with a big-time haul to land him. In shipping Paxton out, perhaps Seattle would significantly boost a farm system which has long languished at the bottom of the majors.

Here’s a look at potential suitors for Paxton, going from best to worst record in 2018:

Boston Red Sox

With Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez, the reigning world champion Red Sox already have 80 percent of a formidable rotation locked in for 2019. But they could lose Nathan Eovaldi to free agency this year and both Sale and Porcello to the open market next offseason. Because Paxton’s under control for 2020, he’d at least help cover for their potential exits. The problem is that, in Baseball America’s estimation, Boston has the game’s second-worst farm system (only Seattle’s is worse). Thus, even though they did nothing but win in 2018, it would be exceedingly difficult for the Red Sox to emerge victorious in a Paxton bidding war.

Houston Astros

The Astros may see Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton leave as free agents, and they’ve already lost Lance McCullers Jr. for 2019 on account of Tommy John surgery. The need for rotation help is obvious, then, and it’s magnified when considering the Astros don’t control their top remaining starters – Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole – beyond 2019. Houston possesses BA’s eighth-ranked system, moreover, and a pair of elite prospects – righty Forrest Whitley (No. 7) and outfielder Kyle Tucker (No. 8) – are atop the group. Whitley or Tucker would be an excellent get for the Mariners, though it would be unrealistic to expect the Astros to part with either for Paxton. They’d probably need a front-line starter with more team control and durability than he provides (Corey Kluber, for example).

New York Yankees

The Yankees are prioritizing rotation help this winter, and they’ve already talked with the Mariners about Paxton. Trades and prospect graduations have taken a bite out of New York’s farm system, which was elite not long ago but is now BA’s 17th-ranked group. Still, the Yankees do have three of the outlet’s top-100 prospects – lefty Justus Sheffield (No. 23), outfielder Estevan Florial (No. 54) and righty Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 63) – headlining their class. At the big league level, young outfielder Clint Frazier and third baseman Miguel Andujar could be of interest to the Mariners. Andujar’s coming off a potential AL Rookie of the Year season, though, so don’t expect the Yankees to part with his four years of control for Paxton’s two.

Oakland Athletics

The Athletics rode a patchwork rotation to a 97-win season and a wild-card berth in 2018, and three of that team’s veteran starters – Trevor Cahill, Edwin Jackson and Brett Anderson – are now free agents. Further, the A’s will have to survive next season without their No. 1 starter from 2018, lefty Sean Manaea, who underwent shoulder surgery in September. They also may open 2019 without rotation candidates A.J. Puk and Jharel Cotton, who each sat out last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. All of that considered, a Paxton acquisiton would make a lot of sense for Oakland, which would be able to slot his reasonable salary into its limited budget. And the Athletics’ farm, which checks in at a middle-of-the-pack 15th, does feature three of BA’s top 100 in lefty Jesus Luzardo (No. 13), Puk (No. 42) and catcher Sean Murphy (No. 57). The A’s are holding out hope Luzardo will crack their season-opening rotation in 2019, however, so it seems he’d be especially tough to pry loose. In the majors, hard-throwing righty Frankie Montas (26 in March) and infielder Franklin Barreto (23 in February) could be of interest to the Mariners. Although, Montas is penciled into the A’s thin rotation right now, and Barreto will succeed Jed Lowrie at second base if he walks in free agency.

Milwaukee Brewers

Like the A’s, the Brewers went a long way last season with a rotation that didn’t look great on paper. Journeyman Wade Miley was one of the unit’s key contributors, but he’s now a free agent. Holdovers Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson were the Brewers’ only other regular starters who managed sub-4.00 ERAs, though their peripherals weren’t as encouraging. And Brent Suter, who threw the fourth-most innings among the team’s starters in 2018, will sit out most or all of next season after undergoing TJ surgery in the summer. Along with Chacin and Anderson, the Brewers have a cavalcade of other options for their 2019 rotation (Jimmy Nelson, Freddy Peralta, Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes), but it would be quite optimistic to expect Paxton-type production out of any of them. Perhaps the Brewers will be in on Paxton, then, but adding him may cost them some of their pitching depth. Any of Peralta, Woodruff or Burnes could draw Seattle’s interest. Per BA, Burnes (No. 56) is one of the Brewers’ two top-100 prospects, along with second baseman Keston Hiura (No. 33).

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers appear to have plenty of capable starters heading into 2019, though lefties Rich Hill and Alex Wood are due to hit free agency a year from now. Plus, LA’s known for having enviable depth just about everywhere, which is another reason not to rule out a Paxton chase. With BA’s ninth-ranked system and some potential trade chips at the major league level, it certainly seems that the Dodgers have the ammunition to go after Paxton if they want. They boast four top-100 prospects – outfielder Alex Verdugo (No. 26), catchers Keibert Ruiz (No. 27) and Will Smith (No. 80), and shortstop Gavin Lux (No. 82) – not to mention promising young arms such as Julio Urias, Caleb Ferguson, Dennis Santana and Dustin May.

Colorado Rockies

Led by Kyle Freeland and German Marquez, the Rockies’ rotation was more than fine in 2018, and they’re slated to return all of their top starters next season. No one would blame Colorado for sticking with that quintet. But Paxton would seemingly upgrade the Rockies’ rotation, and they likely have a good enough farm system (No. 11) to be serious bidders. They could also offer Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson or Antonio Senzatela, starters who each come with at least three years of team control, or land Paxton using other players and try to flip one of Gray, Anderson or Senzatela for much-needed offensive help.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves want a top-of-the-rotation starter, but it doesn’t appear they have the spending capacity to add one via free agency. Enter Paxton? If they’re motivated, the Braves – who own BA’s fifth-rated system and seven of its top-100 prospects – have the goods to get a deal done. Atlanta’s chock-full of young arms, including Sean Newcomb, Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright and former Mariners farmhand Luiz Gohara, and counts third baseman Austin Riley and outfielders Cristian Pache and Drew Waters among its quality position player prospects. That nine-player list certainly presents some intriguing possibilities for the Mariners, though the Braves may not be too eager to part with anyone from it.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are coming off a 90-win season, could use another starter(s), have some money to spend and own BA’s second-ranked farm system. Further, the only Ray to exceed 100 innings last season was AL Cy Young candidate Blake Snell. All of that suggests Tampa Bay’s a great fit for Paxton. On the other hand, it’s not easy to envision the Rays trading a bounty of young talent for a 30-year-old who may only be in their uniform for two seasons.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals aren’t wanting for major league-caliber starters, but that’s not to say Paxton wouldn’t improve their 2019-20 outlook. He’d join Carlos Martinez, Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty to give the Cardinals at least four potential front-end starters next year. After that, Mikolas, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright could each leave as free agents (or retire in Wainwright’s case). St. Louis has the 13th overall system at BA, which regards pitchers Alex Reyes (No. 28) and Dakota Hudson (No. 97), outfielder Tyler O’Neill (No. 49) and catcher Carson Kelly (No. 78) as top-100 prospects. The Cardinals also have rotation candidates/possible trade chips in Luke Weaver, John Gant, Austin Gomber and Daniel Poncedeleon, who are all 26 or younger and have fared reasonably well in the majors.

Washington Nationals

With Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals’ rotation features a marvelous one-two punch. After that duo, the Nats’ starting group is far less imposing, and they’ve lost a couple of their most productive starters from last year in Gio Gonzalez (traded over the summer) and Jeremy Hellickson (free agent). There’s definitely room for Paxton as a result, and with BA’s 12th-ranked system, Washington could be in on this sweepstakes.

Los Angeles Angels

Injuries laid waste to the Angels’ staff last year, and the unit suffered its most devastating blow when Shohei Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery after the season. The two-way star won’t pitch in 2019, creating further room for the acquisition of Paxton or another high-level starter this offseason. If the Angels take a shot at Paxton, it should help their cause that their system is no longer barren – BA moved it from 30th in 2017 to 10th in ’18. And in the event the Mariners would want a somewhat proven starter in a package for Paxton, the Angels have 22-year-old righty Jaime Barria, who held his own as a rookie last season.

Philadelphia Phillies

While the Phillies saw their top five starters amass at least 24 outings apiece in 2018, only one of them, Aaron Nola, actually offered front-line production. Paxton’s not better than Nola, but he’s certainly superior to Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velazquez, Zach Eflin and 2018 injury case Jerad Eickhoff. Aside from Nola (untouchable) and Arrieta (he wouldn’t be of interest to the Mariners), perhaps any of those other starters could involved in a Paxton deal. After all, they’re somewhat established in the majors and come with a few years of control each. Switching to the position player side, the Phillies have Scott Kingery, who could be part of a Paxton trade. On the farm, they have three of BA’s top-100 prospects – righties Sixto Sanchez (No. 16) and Adonis Medina (No. 100), third baseman Alec Bohm (No. 40) – though their system ranks a below-average 18th.

Minnesota Twins

In previewing the Twins’ offseason, Steve Adams pointed out that they have a host of young, back-end arms whom they could potentially package for a starter with greater upside. That’s an interesting idea for Minnesota, which is coming off a disappointing year but could be aggressive this offseason as it attempts to compete in a weak division. Paxton would qualify as a bold pickup, and given the Twins’ loaded farm (BA’s seventh-place system), they could get the Mariners’ attention.

Cincinnati Reds

Paxton to Cincinnati is an extreme long shot, but the Reds do seem motivated to reel in a top-tier arm, evidenced by their interest in big-ticket free agents. Outbidding the rest of the league for a Patrick Corbin or a Dallas Keuchel just doesn’t seem likely, though, so going the trade route may be the Reds’ lone hope of landing a starter of that caliber this offseason. With that said, odds are that the Reds won’t contend during Paxton’s remaining years of control, meaning they’d be better off staying out of this race.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have been among the majors’ worst teams every year since 2013, but they’re nearing a point at which they’ll attempt to make a major push toward contention. That could be as early as this offseason, judging by their reported interest in Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz and Corbin. Of course, just because Chicago’s in on those free-agent stars doesn’t mean it’ll be willing to subtract from its loaded farm to acquire Paxton or any other trade candidate. However, doing so would increase the White Sox’s near-term chances of competing in the underwhelming AL Central.

*The initial version of this post omitted the Nationals, which has been rectified.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

West Notes: Rox, Realmuto, Padres, Rangers, Mariners

By Connor Byrne | November 10, 2018 at 6:40pm CDT

Despite the struggles of the Rockies’ catchers in 2018, it doesn’t appear they’ll be among the most ardent suitors for Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, Thomas Harding of MLB.com hears. It’s unclear, though, whether Colorado will make a less splashy attempt to upgrade over its current trio of Chris Iannetta, Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy, a woeful offensive group in 2018. Realmuto was the game’s premier catcher last season, on the other hand, but his refusal to sign an extension with the Marlins makes him a prime trade candidate. With two years of arbitration control remaining, Realmuto would bring back an impressive haul, but it doesn’t look as if it’ll come from Colorado.

The Padres are rife with major league-caliber outfielders, meaning they’re going to “have to make some decisions and calls on” that area of their roster this offseason, general manager A.J. Preller said this week (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Out of the Padres’ current group of outfielders, Cassavell classifies Wil Myers, Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes as trade candidates, adding that one of the latter two is likeliest to end up on the move. As right-handed sluggers with defensive limitations, Renfroe and Reyes offer similar skill sets, observes Cassavell, who notes that dealing one of the two would enable San Diego to move Myers from third base back to the outfield. The 27-year-old Myers, who owns the Padres’ second-richest contract (he’s guaranteed $64MM through 2023), saw his first real action at third base in 2018. Advanced metrics assigned Myers mixed reviews over a fairly small sample of appearances (36), as he accounted for one DRS and minus-5.4 UZR.
The Rangers elected to decline catcher Robinson Chirinos’ option for 2019 because of both the salary they’d have owed him ($4.5MM) and his defensive woes, according to Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram. Chirinos was one of the majors’ worst defensive catchers in 2018, but it was still a surprise that Texas let him become a free agent. After all, the 34-year-old did offer solid offensive production for the fifth straight season, hitting .222/.338/.419 (103 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 426 plate appearances, and exercising his option hardly would’ve broken the bank. Further, the Rangers don’t seem to have a full-time replacement on hand, as they’re not of the belief either Jose Trevino or Isiah Kiner-Falefa is ready for No. 1 duties, per Wilson. Texas is in the market for a primary backstop as a result, and though there are several established veterans on the open market, Wilson suggests Chirinos’ successor could arrive via trade.
Like their AL West rival in Arlington, the Mariners are seeking a starting catcher, having traded Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay on Thursday. With Zunino gone and the Mariners down to unproven 29-year-old David Freitas as their top option, Greg Johns of MLB.com runs down potential catcher acquisitions for the club. Considering the state of Seattle’s roster, GM Jerry Dipoto may attempt to trade for an experienced backstop who’s controllable for the next three to five years, writes Johns, who lists some potential targets in his piece.

Market Notes: Yankees, Padres, Gray, Athletics, Cards

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2018 at 10:14pm CDT

With the GM Meetings now wrapped up, the stage is set for the offseason action to get underway. Of course, we’re still waiting for some significant dominoes to fall … and everyone involved is no doubt curious to see how this year’s market will develop after the 2017-18 dud. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports cites some warning signs on spending levels; readers interested in the higher-level picture will want to give his reasoning a look.

While we wait for some hard data points to be set down, the just-completed meetings left quite a few rumors. We’ve covered many over the past several days; here are a few more worthy of note:

Though the Yankees seem unsettled at first base, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that they haven’t reached out to the Diamondbacks on slugger Paul Goldschmidt. The potential rental slugger, one of the game’s steadiest offensive producers, is reportedly on the trading block. While the Yankees got stunning production from Luke Voit over a brief stretch late last year, and still have Greg Bird on hand, it wouldn’t be surprising if they sought to add a bigger piece.
Unsurprisingly, the Bronx organization seems fixated first on pitching. Beyond its free agent targets, the club is looking into the biggest possible names on the trade market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Yanks have opened a line of communication with the Mariners on James Paxton. And the New York delegation to the GM Meetings met with their peers from the Indians, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), with Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco both covered in conversation. It obviously isn’t at all surprising to hear that the Yankees have checked in on these distinguished hurlers, but it’s nevertheless a notable bit of information as the market continues to develop.
There are quite a few possibilities for the Padres, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription link), as the organization is feeling a need to show some real strides in the win-loss department. We’ve heard chatter recently about the desire for a young starter and the series of potential trade pieces, but Lin’s most interesting notes seem to focus on the left side of the infield. Manny Machado is not seen internally as a realistic target, with Freddy Galvis still under consideration at short. If the team really wants to push things forward, though, Galvis or another veteran may only warm the seat up for top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. At third, Josh Donaldson does not appear to be the first name on the club’s list of targets. Rather, says Lin, the current plan is to seek a new third baseman via trade.
So, where have the Padres set their sights for a third baseman? There aren’t many obviously available options that would figure to represent everyday pieces. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported recently, though, that the Pads are interested in pursuing Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who recently posted a big campaign on the heels of what now looks to be quite a team-friendly extension. Given the Cincinnati organization’s inclination to begin pushing toward contention, that seems like a tough deal to swing for Padres GM A.J. Preller.
Acee also tabs the Padres as a suitor for Yankees righty Sonny Gray, who’s being openly marketed. Whether Gray would be seen as fulfilling the club’s rotation needs, or rather serving as a potential complement to a more significant addition, isn’t clear. There are other teams with interest in Gray, of course. Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, at least five organizations have inquired, and it wouldn’t be surprising to hear of more. Among those contemplating a move is Gray’s former employer. The Athletics evidently think their former staff ace could bounce back in Oakland, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. Of course, it remains to be seen how much the A’s will be willing to stake on a turnaround. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that at least five teams have inquired with the Yankees on Gray’s availability — the A’s presumably among them. Gray is projected to top $9MM in arbitration earnings this winter, but he thrived away from Yankee Stadium last season and had plenty of encouraging secondary metrics beyond his rudimentary ERA.
We’ve heard recently that the Cardinals intend to explore the relief market, with one southpaw on the team’s priority list. Accordingly, it’s no surprise to hear that the club is among the many teams to show early interest in veteran lefty Andrew Miller, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. Miller is drawing interest after getting some good news on his knee, so there’ll be no shortage of competition. At this point, it’s entirely unclear where he’ll end up.

Mariners To Sign Dylan Moore

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2018 at 4:13pm CDT

The Mariners have reached agreement on a deal with free agent infielder Dylan Moore, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a big-league contract for the 26-year-old, a client of Rep 1, though the financial component is not yet known.

Moore will receive a 40-man spot after reaching minor-league free agency. That’s a relatively unusual, but hardly unprecedented outcome. The former seventh-round pick landed with the Brewers organization last season after the Braves let him go. He had originally landed in Atlanta as part of the 2016 Jeff Francoeur swap.

Though he has yet to receive a chance at the majors, Moore has at times turned in intriguing numbers in the minors. He thrived in particular at the upper reaches of the Milwaukee farm in 2018, turning in a composite .299/.363/.522 slash with 14 home runs through 454 plate appearances (most of which came at Triple-A).

Moore has experience all over the field, including plenty of time at shortstop, so he could offer quite a bit of defensive versatility. Of course, he’ll first need to impress the Seattle brass and earn an opportunity, but he’ll now be firmly in the mix since he’s already on the 40-man roster.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/9/18

By Steve Adams | November 9, 2018 at 1:06pm CDT

Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league — all courtesy of Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise noted…

The Yankees re-signed infielder Gio Urshela to a minor league contract. The 27-year-old was traded from the Jays to the Yankees in early August and never appeared with New York in the Majors. Urshela is regarded as a quality defender at third base but has yet to deliver much in the way of offense at the big league level. In parts of three seasons with Toronto and Cleveland, he’s a .225/.274/.315 hitter (499 plate appearances). He’s a lifetime .274/.315/.411 hitter in Triple-A, however, and will give the Yanks some defensive-minded depth at the hot corner.
Former No. 2 overall pick Danny Hultzen has re-signed with the Cubs on a minor league pact. The left-hander spent the 2018 season in the Cubs organization but threw fewer than 10 innings in the minors as he worked back from major shoulder injuries that have utterly derailed what once looked to be a promising career. Hultzen will turn 29 later this month and has never thrown a pitch in a Major League game but will continue his latest comeback attempt and aim to break that barrier in the 2019 campaign. Those interested in learning more about the former Virginia standout are recommended to check out Hultzen’s interview with the Washington Post’s Dillon Mullan from Aug. 2017.
Right-handed reliever Evan Marshall has latched on with the White Sox on a minors deal. The 28-year-old has worked his way back from a near-fatal blow to the head from a comebacker line drive while pitching for the D-backs’ Triple-A club several years ago and has had brief MLB stints with the Mariners and Indians in each of the past two seasons. Marshall is still trying to rediscover the form he showed as a 24-year-old rookie in 2014, when he pitched to a 2.74 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 49 1/3 innings in Arizona. He did post a ridiculous 1.08 ERA with a 23-to-3 K/BB ratio in 24 minor league frames with the Indians last year, but he was tagged for six runs in seven MLB innings.
The Mariners re-signed righty Ryan Garton to a minor league contract. The 28-year-old racked up 61 1/3 big league innings between the Rays and Mariners in 2016-17 but didn’t crack the big leagues with Seattle in 2018. He turned in a 3.16 ERA with 43 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings for Triple-A Tacoma but also issued a hefty 24 walks (5.1 BB/9) in that time as well.

Rays, Mariners Swap Mallex Smith, Mike Zunino In Five-Player Trade

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2018 at 11:00am CDT

The Mariners and Rays both crossed off an item on their offseason checklist Thursday, officially announcing a five-player trade that will send catcher Mike Zunino, outfielder Guillermo Heredia and minor league lefty Michael Plassmeyer from Seattle to Tampa in exchange for center fielder Mallex Smith and minor league outfielder Jake Fraley.

“Bringing Mallex back home to Seattle is exciting for us all,” said GM Jerry Dipoto in a tongue-in-cheek statement — a nod to having briefly acquired Smith in a previous trade. “His combination of speed, base running impact, defense and on-base abilities are unique in today’s game. We believe his breakout 2018 performance reflects the many ways his skills will positively impact the Mariners for years to come. Jake Fraley exhibits a similarly exciting set of athletic and baseball skills. His offensive game blossomed in 2018 and creates an exciting profile when coupled with his exceptional defense and overall instincts. Both players fit our desire to build a younger, more athletic and exciting roster.”

Unsurprisingly, the first significant swap of the 2018-19 offseason involves the ever-active Dipoto. As recently as Tuesday, the Seattle GM spoke of a desire to “re-imagine” the Mariners’ roster while striving to remain competitive. Specifically, he indicated to MLB.com’s Greg Johns that adding a center fielder would be a priority. Adding Smith not only achieves that goal early in the offseason but simultaneously lowers the club’s lofty payroll a bit; Zunino is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.2MM through arbitration this winter, while Smith is not yet arbitration-eligible after narrowly missing Super Two status and is controlled through the 2022 campaign.

This marks the second time in the past two years that Dipoto has acquired Smith, although the speedster’s original Mariners tenure was measured in minutes. Dipoto acquired Smith from the Braves in a deal that sent Luiz Gohara to Atlanta and promptly flipped Smith to Tampa Bay in order to acquire two years of Drew Smyly’s services. Unfortunately, Smyly injured his arm that Spring and ultimately required Tommy John surgery before ever throwing a regular-season pitch for the Mariners.

This time around, Smith’s acquisition seems to carry more permanence. He’s fresh off a season in which he hit .296/.367/.406 with a pair of homers, 27 doubles, an AL-leading 10 triples and a hefty 40 stolen bases. The 25-year-old Smith saw action at all three outfield positions with the Rays and delivered above-average ratings, but he’ll almost certainly slot in as the primary center fielder for manager Scott Servais in Seattle. He’ll give the Mariners a significant defensive upgrade over Dee Gordon, who admirably attempted to try his hand at a new position last season but graded out as one of the most ineffective defensive center fielders in the game. Gordon now appears likely to return to second base, if he isn’t traded himself, with Robinson Cano perhaps shifting to designated hitter and rotating between second base, first base and third base.

For the Rays, the addition of Zunino gives them a catcher with light-tower power and premium defensive skills. However, Zunino pairs those highly desirable traits with enormous strikeout tendencies and questionable on-base skills. He’s coming off a season in which he hit just .201/.251/.406 with 20 homers, but he’s also only a season removed from a vastly superior .251/.339/.509 output and a career-high 25 homers. Over the past three seasons, Zunino is a .223/.300/.462 hitter with with 57 home runs in 1032 plate appearances. The average and OBP might not jump out, but when adjusting for the Mariners’ pitcher-friendly home park, that level of production rates at about seven percent better than the league-average hitter and nearly 20 percent better than that of a league-average catcher (by measure of OPS and wRC+).

Defensively, Zunino threw out a career-best 35 percent of would-be base thieves in 2018, and he perennially ranks among the league’s best in terms of pitch framing. He’s received well above-average marks in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average for catchers in each of his Major League seasons, and he’s controllable for the next two seasons. If the Rays feel they can curb Zunino’s alarming 34.2 percent career strikeout rate, perhaps they believe there’s some yet-untapped upside in the 27-year-old. If not, he’ll nonetheless give them a strong throwing/framing backstop with more power than just about any catcher in the game.

Acquiring Zunino pushes Michael Perez, acquired in this summer’s Matt Andriese trade with the Diamondbacks, from a starting role to a backup job. The 26-year-old Perez impressed in his brief big league promotion in ’18, hitting .284/304/.392 with a homer and five doubles while halting five of 17 stolen-base attempts against him (29 percent). Perez has received quality defensive ratings of his own throughout his minor league tenure, so this pairing gives Tampa Bay a couple of solid to plus defenders behind the plate — a likely point of emphasis for lead baseball ops duo Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom as they engage in experimental tactics with their pitching staff.

As for Heredia, he’s not entirely dissimilar from Smith in that he’s a fleet-footed outfielder with minimal power who is capable of handling all three outfield positions. He’s not likely to crack a crowded Rays mix that could feature Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier and Austin Meadows as starters in the outfield. However, he could also give the Tampa Bay organization a nice bench option or upper-minors depth piece, as he does have multiple minor league options remaining.

Heredia, 28 in January, hit .236/.318/.342 with the Mariners in 337 plate appearances last season — numbers that fall right in line with his career .244/.321/.336 output in 870 PAs. Unlike Smith, he’s garnered poor defensive ratings in center field, though he grades out above-average in the outfield corners.

Plassmeyer, 22, was the Mariners’ fourth-round pick just five months ago in the 2018 draft, which aligns with Dipoto’s willingness to deal from his most recent draft classes. He traded catcher David Banuelos, his 2017 fifth-rounder, to the Twins last December and also flipped 2017 fourth-rounder Seth Elledge to the Cardinals this past summer. Plassmeyer, Mizzou product, posted a ridiculous 44-to-4 K/BB ratio through 24 innings in Short-Season Class-A ball this summer.

Fraley, 23, was Tampa Bay’s second-round pick in 2016 and is coming off a monstrous .347/.415/.547 showing in 2018, but those gaudy numbers came in 260 PAs against younger competition at Class-A Advanced.

While the addition of Smith fills one vacancy for the Mariners, it also creates another. Light-hitting journeyman David Freitas now sits atop the team’s depth chart behind the plate, so adding some catching options either via free agency or (more likely given Dipoto’s tendencies) via the trade market now figures to become an imperative in the months to come. As for the Rays, they’re dealing from a position of strength and also adding some additional depth by picking up Heredia, so this trade merely checks one item off a length to-do list early in the winter, thus freeing the Tampa Bay front offices to turn its focus to other areas of need (namely, the pitching staff).

Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported that the two sides were close to a deal involving Zunino, Smith and Heredia. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweeted that an agreement was in place, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post and Greg Johns of MLB.com added some context on the return (Twitter links) before the inclusion of Plassmeyer and Fraley was also reported by Divish.

Dipoto Downplays Possibility Of Mariners’ Rebuild

By Jeff Todd | November 6, 2018 at 7:33pm CDT

7:33pm: Dipoto told MLB.com’s Greg Johns at the GM Meetings that this morning’s reports were “clearly over-dramatized,” adding that the Mariners are “just too talented” to completely tear down the roster. That said, Dipoto also conceded that the Mariners are “open-minded to different ways we can get better” and expressed a desire to “re-imagine” the team’s roster while “gather[ing] as much talent as we can.”

Generally speaking, it seems as though the Mariners will be open-minded to moving shorter-term assets — Paxton and Zunino both have only two years of control remaining — while also trying to gather some controllable talent in order to supplement the pieces of the roster that remain into 2019 and beyond. The GM also suggested that the Mariners won’t rule out a reunion with Nelson Cruz, whom he called a “super human being” and a “wildly productive” player. But the team also has other needs, specifically in center field, Dipoto noted.

The column is rife with quotes from Dipoto on the offseason direction and the agile approach the Mariners will take toward offseason roster maneuverings and is worth a look for Mariners fans and those hoping that various Mariners players become available in trades.

10:48am: Facing a difficult path to improving their roster sufficiently to compete in the AL West, the Mariners are said to be weighing at least a partial sell-off of veteran assets. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that the organization is “considering a full-fledged teardown,” while Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times characterizes the situation as one in which the club will pursue the somewhat less dramatic path of “culling the roster of a few players who could actually bring back some younger talent to the organization” while also maintaining a competitive assortment of MLB players.

Whatever the precise course, it’ll be a fine line to walk, and one that’ll require deft handling from Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto. It’s worth noting that both reports emphasize the variability remaining in the situation. The M’s won’t simply be auctioning players off, it seems. Rather, the club is going to be demanding value. And as Divish notes, there’s also a strong countervailing wind to the concept of a rebuild. The goal, as Dipoto has himself stated recently, is to make a legitimate challenge for a World Series as swiftly as possible. Accordingly, it’s at least possible that the organization will prioritize near-to-the-majors talent over far-away, high-upside prospects.

Regardless, it’s an interesting shift in the market just as it gets underway. No doubt, the allure of the trade market is factoring into the thinking for the Mariners’ front office. That seems to be an element of the Indians’ decision to consider offers on some key veteran pitchers. The market side of the reasoning here isn’t altogether different, though it’s quite a different competitive picture for the Cleveland organization, which still has a very clear path to the postseason. With few top-end starters and relievers available for the highest bidder, there certainly could be some opportunities to achieve value.

All indications of late had been that the Mariners would consider to push to contend. There’s real talent on the roster, to be sure, and the club did just win 89 games even after a late-2018 tailspin. Certainly, the organization’s slate of contract commitments represents that of a contending team, with large and lengthy commitments to several players. Those same factors, though, also can easily be interpreted as supporting a different approach. The 2018 club arguably outperformed its true talent level and still finished 14 games out of first place in the AL West. And a crowded payroll situation makes it hard to imagine ready solutions to some of the team’s ongoing areas of need.

So, what players could be on the move? The premium assets will certainly draw the most attention, though they’ll also be the hardest to pry loose. James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, and Marco Gonzales all come with ample excess value in their control rights. Surely, it would require the right deal to part with any of these players. Of them, Paxton seems the likeliest to move, if only because the others are all controlled for at least four move seasons while he has just two left to go. Indeed, Divish indicates it’s quite likely the power lefty will be shipped out. Diaz is a fascinating potential piece on the market, as he’d easily be the most valuable relief asset available. The 24-year-old just turned in an outstanding season and his trade value was boosted by the fact that he barely missed out on Super Two qualification, which would have greatly increased his overall arbitration earning power. Haniger is likely the team’s most valuable piece, though he might also be the hardest to part with. Moving Segura’s contract might offer a means of both dropping salary and adding younger talent in one fell swoop. There’s really not much reason for the Mariners to consider dealing Gonzales, who is amply affordable and controllable (and also just agreed to an unusual new contract).

Several other players will also surely be of keen interest on the market. Veteran reliever Alex Colome is not as good, or as cheap and controllable, as Diaz, but he’d be quite an interesting alternative to the open market options for clubs needing late-inning relief talent. Several other bullpen assets could hold appeal as well. Backstop Mike Zunino has his limitations as a player, but he’s a talented defender with huge power. It would be rather challenging for the club to move its most expensive veterans, though perhaps contract-swapping arrangements of some kind can be imagined. Plenty of rivals would like to have Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Dee Gordon, and Mike Leake on their rosters, after all, despite their suboptimal recent track records, though certainly the remaining financial obligations would need to be sorted out somehow.

The possibilities, truly, are endless, and will depend in no small part upon precisely what Dipoto and co. are looking to accomplish. It could well be a matter of seeing what’s possible on the market, rather than setting out specifically to prioritize the addition of new talent, say, as opposed to shaving payroll. Given Dipoto’s history of dealmaking, it wouldn’t be surprising to see quite a few moves to re-shape the roster in the coming months.

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