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Mariners Rumors

Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Upcoming Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | October 7, 2021 at 9:23pm CDT

In a chat with reporters today, including Corey Brock of The Athletic, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said that he has the blessing of club chairman John Stanton increase spending this winter. Dipoto stopped short of committing to anything, however, making sure to keep his words vague.

“We do have payroll flexibility, and we’re going to use it to make the team better,” Dipoto said. He continued, “It’s incumbent on us to go add where we can add and improve where we think we can improve. That’s not lost on us. We’ll visit every avenue to do that…We’re just looking to add talent.”

Of course, it makes a lot of sense that the Mariners would be looking to open the proverbial checkbook this offseason, for a couple of reasons. For one thing, they’re coming off a surprise 90-win campaign that saw them stay in the AL Wild Card race until the final day of the season. And secondly, this year’s payroll was less than half of what it was just a few seasons ago.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the team payroll got as high a notch above $160MM in 2018. It was after that year’s 89-win campaign that Dipoto and the Mariners famously, or infamously, decided to strip down both the roster and payroll and start rebuilding again. That winter, they unloaded Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, James Paxton, Jean Segura and others, endured two straight losing seasons in 2019 and 2020, before opening this year’s campaign with a payroll under $75MM.

Potent bats will certainly be a primary target in the coming months. “We do want to make our lineup longer,” said Dipoto. “We would like to add offense.” In spite of their 90 wins, their 697 runs scored this season put them tied for 22nd in the majors in that category, and better than just three teams in the American League. (Royals, Orioles and Rangers.)

Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore, Jarred Kelenic and Tom Murphy all got over 300 plate appearances with Seattle this season and posted below-average offensive numbers, by measure of wRC+. Seager is likely to depart in free agency, as it seems doubtful the club wants to pick up his $20MM option. That creates one obvious area of potential improvement. Abraham Toro has been floated as Seager’s possible heir at third base, but his wRC+ of 99 since coming over from the Astros matches Seager’s number on the year. If the Mariners want to improve on the infield, they’ll have lots of options, as the market has stars like Marcus Semien and Kris Bryant, as well as solid regulars such as Chris Taylor, Eduardo Escobar, Josh Harrison or Brad Miller.

The club will also be on the hunt for pitching, as Dipoto said it is “going to be a focus for us. The likelihood for us is it’s going to come as a starter.” Seattle’s rotation certainly has room for improvement, as it was fairly pedestrian this year, ranking 19th in ERA, 23rd in strikeout rate, 13th in walk rate and 22nd in WAR. They will also be losing deadline-pickup Tyler Anderson to free agency, leaving them with a rotation of Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert. Yusei Kikuchi would have seemed like a lock to be in that group a few months ago, but had a terrible second half and got bumped from the rotation in September. The Mariners will likely decline their four-year option over him, but Kikuchi would still likely return in that scenario as he would then have a player option valued at $13MM. Whether they want to give him another shot or figure out another path forward remains to be seen. Prospects like Matt Brash, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock could help out eventually, but none of them have big league experience as of yet.

This year’s crop of free agent starters is loaded, with the top end featuring names like Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman, though they could also aim for buy-low wildcards like Chris Archer, Zack Greinke or taking a flyer on James Paxton again.

Regardless of how it plays out, it should be interesting, as it always is when “Trader Jerry” is involved. Although, it seems there’s at least a chance that this offseason is focused less on wild trades and more on straightforward additions in free agency.

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Seattle Mariners Jerry Dipoto

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The Mariners’ Kyle Seager Decision

By Anthony Franco | October 4, 2021 at 6:48pm CDT

The Mariners’ playoff push came up a couple games short, as the club dropped their final series of the year against the Angels to fall out of the Wild Card race. While some underlying indicators suggest the club was fortunate to finish 90-72 — they were outscored by 51 runs despite finishing eighteen games over .500 — it’s clear the focus is on contention moving forward. A few of Seattle’s top young talents have already gotten their feet wet in the big leagues, and more (including Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock) aren’t far behind.

On top of that young base, the M’s have a wide open payroll outlook. In the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, the Mariners enter the upcoming offseason with just $19.2MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for 2022. Assuming the club declines a four-year, $66MM package deal of team options on Yusei Kikuchi, the southpaw would have the right to exercise a $13MM player option. Even if Kikuchi returns on his option, that’d leave the Mariners with just north of $32MM in guaranteed commitments entering the winter.

Their first tough offseason call will be whether to bring franchise cornerstone Kyle Seager back into the fold. The club holds a $20MM option on Seager’s services for 2022. That comes with a $2MM buyout, meaning it’ll be a net $18MM call for the front office. That raises the possibility that yesterday’s game was Seager’s final as a Mariner, and manager Scott Servais removed him from the game during the top of the ninth inning (once the Red Sox won and had officially eliminated Seattle from playoff contention) to give fans at T-Mobile Park an opportunity to show their appreciation for Seager’s time in the organization.

For his part, Seager told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times he hasn’t heard from the front office about the status of his option. In something of an eyebrow-raising comment, the veteran third baseman added he hasn’t spoken with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto “in years, probably four years. We don’t communicate at all. Not even passing by in the hall. If he spoke to my agent or anything like that, I haven’t heard anything.”

“It’s a weird spot to be in,” Seager elaborated (via Divish). “You kind of want to know, but unfortunately it’s out of our control. He’s not obligated or anything to tell me one way or the other. You have to prepare like you’re not going to be here. The writing’s been on the wall for a while. There’s nobody left from when I first got here. That’s not uncommon with a regime change. You bring in your own guys. You do your own thing.”

Reading between the lines, Seager’s comments would seem to suggest he’s anticipating the team buying his option out. Given Seager’s respected status in the organization and among the fan base, it’s something of a surprise to hear his contact with Dipoto is so infrequent. Still, Dipoto and his staff need not have a strong personal connection with Seager to judge picking up his option a worthy investment.

Seager has consistently been an above-average player on both sides of the ball throughout his career. He had an atypical 2021 season, posting a career-worst .212 batting average and his second-lowest on-base percentage (.285). But he also popped 35 home runs, a personal-best tally that tied him for seventeenth in MLB. Seager’s overall .212/.285/.438 line checked in at almost exactly league average by measure of wRC+, after accounting for Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark.

It was a similarly confounding year for Seager on the defensive side of the ball. Advanced metrics were split on his work, with Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as a bit above-average, while Defensive Runs Saved thought he was a little below par. He’s generally well-regarded with the glove and has posted strong defensive marks in the past, so it’d probably be fair to project Seager as an average or slightly above-average player at the hot corner in 2022.

A player who’s a tick above-average at all facets of the game certainly carries value, even if many teams wouldn’t jump to pay $18MM for that level of production. Seager, however, means a lot to the fanbase (as yesterday’s on-field celebration showed) and to many in that clubhouse. Shortstop J.P. Crawford teared up following yesterday’s game when speaking about Seager’s influence on him (video via Jomboy Media). Crawford’s only one player, of course, but it seems likely others in the clubhouse feel similarly connected to Seager, the franchise’s longest-tenured active player.

For a franchise with as clean a payroll outlook as the Mariners’, a case can be made for exercising Seager’s option, even if it seems a bit pricey on first glance. The club does have Abraham Toro as a potential in-house replacement at the hot corner, though. Toro came up through the Astros’ system as a third base prospect; the M’s moved him primarily to second base after acquiring him at the trade deadline, but the front office could slide Toro back to his natural position were they to buy Seager out. Doing so would require pursuing an upgrade at second base during a year in which the free agent options at the position are fairly weak, but Dipoto has already hinted at the possibility of an active offseason.

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Seattle Mariners Kyle Seager

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Mariners Reinstate Andres Munoz From 60-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | October 2, 2021 at 8:47pm CDT

The Mariners made something of a surprise addition to their bullpen, reinstating right-hander Andres Munoz from the 60-day injured list.  In the corresponding move, veteran righty Joe Smith was placed on the injured list with an undisclosed issue.

Munoz hasn’t pitched in a big league game since September 15, 2019, when he was finishing up his rookie season with the Padres.  The 22-year-old’s career was put on hold due to Tommy John surgery in March 2020, and another setback this past spring added some extra time onto his rehab efforts.  Munoz finally began a minor league rehab assignment on September 17, and made one rookie ball appearance and three Triple-A appearances before getting the call to Seattle.

During his injury recovery, Munoz was dealt to the Mariners as part of their big seven-player swap with the Padres prior to the 2020 trade deadline.  He might now go from afterthought to instant hero if he can provide the M’s with anything in their late-season playoff push, though it remains to be seen exactly what Munoz can deliver after so much time on the shelf.

A Padres international signing out of Mexico in 2015, Munoz’s big league resume consists a 3.91 ERA over 23 innings in 2019, with a nice 30.9% strikeout rate but also a rather high 11.3% walk rate.  That has more or less been the story for Munoz throughout his minor league career, as his big high-90’s fastball has led to a lot of missed bats, though control has often been an issue.  This big velo is certainly an intriguing weapon for a team in the postseason hunt, as Munoz might be something of a secret weapon out of Seattle’s bullpen.

The lack of information about Smith’s IL placement would seem to indicate a COVID-related issue, but details aren’t known about the right-hander’s situation (a positive test, contact tracing, waiting on a test result, vaccine side effects, etc.), nor could any be forthcoming given the league-mandated privacy regulations about the COVID list.  If a quarantine is required, Smith will miss not just the rest of the regular season, but also likely the ALDS if the Mariners advanced that far.

After a brutal start to the season with the Astros, Smith has turned things around since being dealt to the Mariners at the deadline, posting a 2.00 ERA over his 18 innings in Seattle.  Smith has improved his strikeout rate since joining the M’s and has surrendered only one home run, as opposed to giving up four homers in his 21 2/3 frames in Houston.

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Seattle Mariners Transactions Andres Munoz Joe Smith

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Matt Andriese Elects Free Agency

By Anthony Franco | September 30, 2021 at 10:25pm CDT

The Mariners announced that right-hander Matt Andriese has cleared outright waivers and elected free agency. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week.

The 32-year-old Andriese split this season between the Red Sox and M’s. He signed a one-year deal with Boston over the offseason but was released in August. Andriese landed a major league contract with Seattle not long after but was let go after just eight outings as a Mariner.

Andriese’s time with the Red Sox didn’t go as planned. While he started the season well, his performance dipped from May onwards and he finished his tenure there with just a 6.03 ERA across 37 1/3 innings. To his credit, he performed better during his brief look in Seattle. As a Mariner, Andriese tossed eleven innings of six-run (three earned) ball. He punched out twelve in that limited time while issuing just a pair of walks and racking up grounders on more than half the balls in play against him. That came in almost exclusively low-leverage outings, though, and Andriese wound up being the odd man out when the Mariners decided to bring up pitching prospect Matt Brash on Tuesday.

A seven-year veteran, Andriese has a fair amount of starting experience at the big league level. He’s worked in long relief over the past three seasons, although he was in consideration for a season-opening rotation job with Boston at one point. Clubs looking for depth in either the rotation or the bullpen could consider Andriese an option going into next season.

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Seattle Mariners Transactions Matt Andriese

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Mariners Select Matt Brash’s Contract, Designate Matt Andriese

By Mark Polishuk | September 28, 2021 at 2:15pm CDT

2:15PM: Brash’s contract has officially been selected.  Right-hander Matt Andriese was designated for assignement in the corresponding move.

11:17AM: The Mariners will select the contract of pitching prospect Matt Brash before today’s game with the Athletics, assistant GM Justin Hollander said in an interview with ESPN 710 radio (hat tip to Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times).  The M’s have a space on their 40-man roster to accommodate Brash, though they’ll have to make another move to make room on the active roster.

Brash was seen yesterday working out with the Mariners, so speculation immediately arose that the 23-year-old right-hander was on the verge of his MLB debut.  Brash is expected to pitch today in relief of scheduled starter Tyler Anderson, who is throwing on only two days’ rest.

Joining a team in the thick of a playoff race is quite the step for a pitcher who hasn’t even made an appearance at the Triple-A level, let alone the majors.  Brash was promoted to Triple-A Tacoma on Friday but didn’t get a chance to pitch for Tacoma before getting the call to the Show.

A fourth-round pick for the Padres in the 2019 draft, Brash came to Seattle in the August 2020 trade deadline swap that saw Taylor Williams head to San Diego.  His first year in the Mariners organization has been a successful one, as Brash has a 2.31 ERA and an outstanding 35.06% strikeout rate over 97 1/3 innings (42 1/3 IP at High-A ball, 55 IP at Double-A), starting 19 of his 20 games.  Control is a bit of a red flag, as Brash has an 11.85% walk rate this season.

Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each rank Brash within the Mariners’ top 10 prospects, with BA placing Brash ninth and Pipeline putting him right at the #10 spot.  Brash’s slider has taken steps forward this year but his fastball is his top pitch, clocking “up to 99 mph with high spin rates,” according to Baseball America’s scouting report.  That same report also notes that Brash drew some trade attention from other teams, so the Canadian’s breakout year has impressed evaluators beyond just Seattle’s organization.

The Mariners enter today’s action just 1.5 games back of the second AL wild card slot.  The Yankees hold the first wild card position and are a game ahead of the Red Sox, while the Blue Jays sit a game behind Boston (and a half-game ahead of Seattle).  The A’s are also still in the mix, 3.5 games back of Boston and with two remaining games in this series with the M’s.  This division rivalry has become surprisingly one-sided, however, as Seattle is 13-4 against Oakland this season.

With the postseason race this tight, the Mariners are turning to all available arms to help, even inexperienced youngsters like Brash.  Yusei Kikuchi had been the scheduled starter for today’s game, but Kikuchi has been so inconsistent over the last two months that the M’s are instead opting with the Anderson/Brash combination.  If Brash is able, he might be in line for more than one multi-inning appearance down the stretch (or, the Mariners hope, into the playoffs).

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Seattle Mariners Transactions Matt Andriese Matt Brash

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Mariners Outright Jose Marmolejos

By Anthony Franco | September 17, 2021 at 4:40pm CDT

SEPTEMBER 17: Marmolejos has cleared waivers and been outrighted back to Tacoma, the team announced Friday. He has the right to elect free agency because he’d previously been outrighted in his career, although the team offered no indication he’s planning to do so.

SEPTEMBER 14: The Mariners announced they’ve designated corner outfielder/first baseman José Marmolejos for assignment. Fellow outfielder Jake Fraley has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list in a corresponding move. Marmolejos’ designation also opens a spot on Seattle’s 40-man roster, which now sits at 39.

Marmolejos has already been designated once this season, losing his roster spot back in May after hitting just .139/.266/.278 in his first 94 plate appearances. The 28-year-old cleared outright waivers and was sent to Triple-A Tacoma. He put together an incredible few months with the Rainiers, popping 23 home runs in just 303 plate appearances and mashing at a .360/.452/.700 clip. That earned him another look with the big league club, as the M’s reselected Marmolejos a couple weeks back.

Seattle has given Marmolejos a few starts since he was called back up, but he again struggled in a very small sample of 28 plate appearances. With Fraley ready to return to assume his customary left field role, the front office evidently determined there was no space on the big league club for Marmolejos. Because he’s out of minor league option years, Marmolejos had to again be exposed to waivers to be bumped from the active roster.

While Marmolejos cleared waivers a few months ago, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see another club take a flier on him this time around thanks to his intervening demolishing of Triple-A pitching. Any claiming team would also have to keep the left-handed hitter on the active roster or place him back on waivers themselves.

Fraley has missed a little more than two weeks due to right shoulder inflammation. The 26-year-old got off to a great start to the season but had cooled off significantly before landing on the shelf. He’s still been a productive player overall, though, sporting a season line of .213/.359/.388. It’s an unsightly batting average, to be sure, but Fraley’s massive 18.2% walk rate has helped him post an OBP nearly forty points higher than the .321 league average (excluding pitchers).

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Seattle Mariners Transactions Jake Fraley Jose Marmolejos

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Seattle To Host All-Star Game In 2023

By Anthony Franco | September 16, 2021 at 3:23pm CDT

TODAY: The league officially announced that the 2023 game will be in Seattle.

SEPTEMBER 14: Major League Baseball is finalizing plans to host 2023 All-Star festivities at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. MLB has yet to make an official announcement on the news.

Seattle has twice before hosted the All-Star Game — at the Kingdome in 1979 and at T-Mobile Park (then called Safeco Field) in 2001. The National League won the 1979 contest by a score of 7-6, while the American League took the 2001 game by a 4-1 margin.

Next year’s event will be hosted in Los Angeles. The Dodgers were initially announced as hosts for the 2020 festivities, but those were canceled during last year’s shortened season and will instead be made up in 2022. As Passan notes, the only other future All-Star host site known at this time is Philadelphia, which will get the event in 2026 as part of the celebration of the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

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2023 All-Star Game Seattle Mariners

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AL West Notes: Calhoun, Yordan, Murphy

By Steve Adams | September 15, 2021 at 1:58pm CDT

Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun missed nearly three months of the 2021 season after suffering a broken arm upon being hit by a pitch, but he’s expected to return to the lineup this week, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The club has 18 games left to get a look at Calhoun before determining whether to tender him a contract in arbitration this winter, and manager Chris Woodward offered no certainties when discussing Calhoun’s future. “Unfortunately, he hasn’t played enough for us to really evaluate him,” Woodward said (via Grant). “So, we may have to make a really tough decision one way or the other. We’re going to have to kind of go out on a limb.”

Calhoun, 27 this offseason, was the headlining prospect the Rangers received from the Dodgers in 2017’s Yu Darvish trade. He’s yet to establish himself as a consistently productive hitter, however, and was batting a rather pedestrian .254/.323/.385 in 226 plate appearances before heading to the injured list. Calhoun’s lack of playing time and career .248/.304/.418 batting line to date will limit his arbitration price. That, coupled with the fact that he has a minor league option remaining in 2022, could be a saving grace. So long as the Rangers don’t mind carrying him on the 40-man roster, there’s little downside in tendering him a contract, but Woodward’s mention of a “tough decision” appears to indicate that there’s at least some debate on how to proceed.

Some more notes from the division…

  • Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez is getting increased defensive reps in at first base and could begin seeing time there in games, manager Dusty Baker told reporters this week (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Alvarez, 24, played some first base in the minors but hasn’t appeared there in the Majors yet. He’s only played 317 innings of defense since debuting in 2019 — all of which have come in left field. The ’Stros have Yuli Gurriel as their everyday option at first base, and his $8MM club option for the 2022 season is a no-brainer to be exercised after a terrific 2021 season. Still, getting Alvarez some work at first would provide a safety net should Gurriel need to miss time and would also give the Astros an option on days where they hope to rest Gurriel, who’ll turn 38 next June. Looking beyond the ’22 campaign, at which point Gurriel will be a free agent, it’d obviously be a bonus if the ’Stros felt comfortable playing Alvarez at first base on at least a part-time basis. Given the knee troubles he’s already had in his career, Alvarez might not be a full-time option either in left field or at first base for Houston, but the more ways they have to keep him and his outstanding career .293/.375/.584 batting line (906 plate appearances) in the lineup, the better.
  • Mariners catcher Tom Murphy chatted with Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times about his rebound from an awful start to the year — a stretch he called “the lowest point in my baseball career.” Murphy’s roster spot looked to be in jeopardy at one point, but he’s rebounded since mid-May, hitting .236/.346/.408 with eight homers in his past 208 trips to the plate. His season line still rests at an ugly .205/.304/.373, but that’s weighed down by those first six weeks. Murphy didn’t play in 2020 after fouling a ball into his foot and suffering a fracture during Mariners “Summer Camp,” so the slow start after such a long layoff is somewhat understandable. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for a second time this winter, giving the Mariners three potential options behind the dish alongside Luis Torrens and prospect Cal Raleigh. Had Murphy’s struggles continued, he’d have been a clear non-tender candidate. That possibility can’t be expressly ruled out even with the rebound, but the forthcoming raise on his modest $875K salary figures to be relatively minimal. Murphy hit .273/.324/.535 in 281 plate appearances with the Mariners back in 2019.
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Houston Astros Notes Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Tom Murphy Willie Calhoun Yordan Alvarez

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Mariners Notes: Kikuchi, Anderson, Gilbert

By Anthony Franco | September 9, 2021 at 6:44pm CDT

The Mariners are poised for one of their most active offseasons in years, with their recent retooling effort having reached its conclusion. Before turning their attention to outside acquisitions, they’ll have to determine whether to retain a few of their own key players. This morning, MLBTR’s Steve Adams covered their looming decision regarding Kyle Seager, and Seattle will also have some notable calls to make on the pitching side.

Yusei Kikuchi, the team’s All-Star representative, could hit the open market. The team has to decide on a four-year, $66MM package deal of conjoined club options this winter. If the club declines to make that long-term commitment, Kikuchi will either exercise his own $13MM option to return in 2022 or choose to test free agency.

Entering the season, the team exercising the options looked like a long shot. Kikuchi then got off to the best start of his three-year MLB career, seemingly making that a tougher call for the front office, as Steve explored here in early July. Over the season’s first half, the 30-year-old worked to a 3.48 ERA across 98 1/3 innings, en route to the aforementioned All-Star selection. He’s struggled mightily over the past couple months, though, with just a 6.04 ERA in 47 2/3 frames. The southpaw’s strikeout rate has dipped a couple percentage points relative to the season’s first few months, while his walk rate has spiked. He’s also been tagged for eleven home runs in his last ten starts as his rate of hard contact allowed has ticked up.

Given those recent struggles, the odds the club picks up Kikuchi’s options look to be dwindling, writes Corey Brock of the Athletic. That’s not particularly surprising, as the southpaw now owns a 4.32 ERA with league average strikeout and walk rates (24.3% and 9.3%, respectively) over the course of the season. Paired with his subpar showings in 2019-20, making that level of long-term commitment to Kikuchi would seem quite risky, even for a club with ample payroll space.

Declining the options would give Kikuchi the chance to become the third Mariners’ starter to hit the open market, joining James Paxton and Tyler Anderson. Seattle could be motivated to bring Anderson back, as he’s fared well since being acquired from the Pirates in a midseason deal. Over eight starts, the southpaw has a 3.83 ERA, offsetting a below-average 18.1% strikeout percentage with a very low 3.7% walk rate. Anderson tells Brock he’d have interest in re-signing with Seattle, and M’s manager Scott Servais said he’s “very intrigued” about the possibility of a reunion, opining that Anderson “would be a good fit going forward.”

Anderson has posted back-to-back reliable seasons. Since the start of 2020, the 31-year-old has a 4.25 ERA in 207 2/3 innings. He hasn’t missed many bats, but he throws plenty of strikes and has done fairly well to avoid damaging contact. It’s possible he and his representatives look for a multi-year deal this offseason, but Anderson was limited to a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee last winter and has split this season between two clubs with pitcher-friendly home ballparks.

In addition to augmenting the group in free agency, the Mariners could look into a long-term deal with one of their pitchers already under team control. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that Seattle offered righty Logan Gilbert an extension last September, which the former first-round pick declined. Rosenthal doesn’t suggest there are any plans for a future offer in the near future, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the front office decides to make another effort at some point.

Gilbert had yet to make his big league debut at the time of the M’s offer, but he’s since made his first twenty starts. While the 24-year-old only has a 5.10 ERA, his peripherals have been far more encouraging. Gilbert’s 26% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk percentage are each a few points better than the league average, as is his 12.7% swinging strike rate. The front office is likely as bullish as ever on the young starter’s long-term outlook.

While Gilbert reached the majors this year, his mid-May promotion was late enough in the season that he won’t accrue a full year of service time. He won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season, although his promotion should enable him to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player over the 2023-24 offseason (assuming the existing service time structure survives this winter’s collective bargaining negotiations). No starting pitcher in the 0-1 year service class has signed an extension since Chris Archer’s April 2014 deal with the Rays. With nothing of recent precedent, it could be difficult for the sides to line up on a mutually agreeable price point.

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Notes Seattle Mariners Logan Gilbert Tyler Anderson Yusei Kikuchi

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Price Of Kyle Seager’s Club Option Has Increased

By Steve Adams | September 9, 2021 at 4:10pm CDT

4:10 pm: Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that the value of Seager’s option has actually escalated all the way to the maximum $20MM figure. According to Divish, Seager needs 37 more plate appearances through the end of the regular season to push the value of the buyout from $1.5MM to $2MM. With 22 games remaining on the schedule, Seattle’s regular third baseman shouldn’t have much difficulty reaching that mark.

9:25 am: Kyle Seager has been a Mariner since the club selected him with the 82nd overall draft pick back in 2009, but the Mariners will soon face a decision on the former All-Star who’s held down the hot corner at T-Mobile Park/Safeco Field for the past decade.

Seager is in the final guaranteed season of a seven-year, $100MM contract extension signed back in December 2014, but that contract holds a club option for the 2022 season. While the option was originally valued at $15MM, Seager’s extension included escalators that could boost the option value up to $20MM and trigger a buyout of as much as $3MM (as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported at the time of the deal). Seager hasn’t reached the full weight of those escalators, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic now reports that he’s boosted that option value up to $19MM and hit enough of the escalators to tack on a buyout in the $1.5MM to $2MM range.

Triggering the buyout means that regardless of the Mariners’ decision, Seager will walk away from the deal with at least $101.5MM to $102MM in guaranteed money. For the Mariners, what was previously a net $15MM decision is now a net decision in the $17MM to $17.5MM range.

Seager, 34 in November, has become an increasingly difficult player to value. His .213 batting average and .290 on-base percentage are both obvious eyesores, but he’s also slugging .455 and has clubbed a career-high 34 home runs in 2021 with a few weeks of games yet to play. His 23.7 percent strikeout rate is a career-high, but the league-average strikeout rate has soared in recent years; he’s only one percent north of the 22.7 average for non-pitchers.

Seager has also had at least some degree of poor fortune on balls in play, although perhaps not as much as his career-low .218 BABIP would suggest upon first glance. Seager’s career .272 average on balls in play is already lower than that of the league average (about .300), so we can’t simply assume there will be positive regression all the way up to the league norm.

This version of Seager is naturally going to be prone to a low BABIP due to his pull-happy (45.5 percent) and thus shift-prone approach, a huge 51.6 percent fly-ball rate (including a 13.6 percent infield-fly rate) and his decreasing speed. Statcast pegs Seager’s “expected” batting average at .225, which would be enough to narrowly push his OBP into the .300s assuming the rest of his profile remained the same. Seager, like so many other players in the league, has taken some steps toward a three-true-outcomes style at plate — albeit not to the same dramatic extent as three-true-outcome kings like Joey Gallo or Miguel Sano.

On the defensive side of things, Seager remains a solid option at third base. Both Ultimate Zone Rating (4.0) and Outs Above Average (5) grade him as an above-average defender. Defensive Runs Saved has him at minus-4 this season, but Seager has a long track record of quality DRS marks. His 13 errors have him on pace to finish right around his full-season totals from 2017-19. He’s not Matt Chapman or Nolan Arenado at third base, but most clubs would likely consider him anywhere from serviceable to above-average, which has value in its own right.

The Mariners, at least to some extent, will also have to take into account Seager’s status as a foundational piece for the past decade. Back in February, now-former Mariners president Kevin Mather made a buyout of Seager’s option sound like a fait accompli, indicating that the 2021 campaign would likely be his last as a Mariner. Mather, of course, is no longer with the club and Seager has gone on to belt a career-best 34 dingers — albeit with concerning declines in OBP and average, as previously highlighted. FanGraphs values Seager at 2.6 wins above replacement, putting him on pace to finish as a 2.9-WAR or better player for the ninth time in his past 10 full seasons (i.e., excluding 2020).

The Mariners could simply buy Seager out and slide Abraham Toro (and, on occasion, Ty France) over to third base in 2022. However, both players are capable of playing other positions. Toro has been lined up primarily at second base since being acquired from Houston, and France is capable at both second and first (with more than enough bat to simply DH, as well).

Ultimately, a net price in the $17MM range seems steep for Seager, but the Mariners also only have $19MM in guaranteed salary on the books next season, with a fairly light arbitration class to boot. Combine that with Seager’s career-best power output, solid glovework and legacy status in Seattle — and it’s enough to at least make this a closer decision for the front office than most would expect.

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