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Mariners Targeting Starting Pitching, Infield Help

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The Mariners are seeking starting pitching and infield upgrades in advance of the July 30 trade deadline, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Murray suggests the club sees second base as its biggest area to address, with a right-handed hitter being preferable.

Seattle has somewhat surprisingly hung around the playoff picture all year, entering play tonight 3.5 games behind the Athletics for the final Wild Card spot. Despite having been outscored by 51 runs, the Mariners are six games over .500 at 50-44. They’ll have an opportunity to make up ground when they welcome the A’s for a four-game set this weekend.

The Mariners weren’t generally expected to contend entering the season. While the club has seen plenty of progress as they reach the final stages of their rebuild, much of the roster is still young and unestablished. Despite their place in the standings, they remain a long shot to get to the postseason this year. FanGraphs pegs Seattle’s playoff odds at just 4%.

Thus, it’s not particularly surprising to hear the Mariners front office has indicated to rival teams they’re uninterested in parting with any of their top prospects, according to Murray. Rather than pursuing the top pitching targets on the market, Seattle’s expected to look for stopgap options to aid an injury-plagued rotation. Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield remain on the injured list, and the team’s reunion with James Paxton didn’t even last two innings before the lefty required Tommy John surgery. That has left the M’s to rely on Yusei Kikuchi, Logan Gilbert, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen.

Turning to the infield, each of first and second base have been problem areas for the M’s this year. Seattle’s presumably still committed to Evan White long-term, but the young first baseman won’t play again in 2021 due to a hip injury. At second base, the Mariners have gotten a disappointing campaign from Dylan Moore, who’s hitting just .190/.276/.356 across 243 plate appearances.

It shouldn’t be hard to find an upgrade over that production even if the Mariners are disinclined to part with top players. Speculatively speaking, Jonathan Schoop is having a strong season with Detroit and fits Seattle’s reported target for a righty-hitting second baseman; the switch-hitting César Hernández could be made available by the Indians, as could Josh Harrison of the Nationals.

Of course, there’s still some possibility the Mariners fall out of that solid position in the standings over the coming week. Losing this weekend’s series with Oakland, for instance, might change the calculus. Both Murray and Jeff Passan of ESPN write that the Mariners could yet straddle the line between buying and selling, looking to bolster the roster for this season and beyond while continuing to listen to offers on players like outfielder Mitch Haniger and reliever Kendall Graveman. The M’s don’t seem especially likely to trade Haniger, who’s controllable through next season, but an impending free agent like Graveman seems a more plausible candidate for a midseason move.

Mariners Place Jake Fraley On COVID-19 IL

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Mariners outfielder Jake Fraley is going on the COVID-19 injured list, with fellow outfielder Dillon Thomas being recalled to take his place on the active roster. Manager Scott Servais revealed that Fraley has tested positive for COVID-19 and also has symptoms, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Servais said the majority of players with whom Fraley was in close contact have been vaccinated, so they’re hoping that will stop the virus from spreading further.

This is a very unfortunate development for what had previously been a breakout year for Fraley. He has thus far put up a line of .237/.409/.439, with a wRC+ of 143 and 1.1 fWAR. Now he will have to isolate for at least 10 days, per league protocols, and attempt to convalesce.

For Thomas, this will be his second stint with the team after a two-game cup of coffee last month. At Triple-A this year, he is slashing .260/.376/.429, good enough for a wRC+ of 103.

Latest On Mariners’ Deadline Plans

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The Mariners have been one of the most surprising contenders of the 2021 season to date. Manager Scott Servais entered the season with a six-man rotation and a host of exciting young outfielders getting ready to traverse the grass at T-Mobile Park, but expectations were low for a franchise with zero World Series appearances and no playoff appearances since 2001.

Both droughts are likely to continue into 2022, but there’s at least a chance that the Mariners could continue their upward trajectory and push for a playoff spot this season. With the trade deadline two weeks away, the Mariners are 49-43, on pace for 86 wins and just 3.5 games out of a wild card spot. In fact, they have the best record in the American League for a team not currently in a playoff spot, putting them in prime position to be surprise buyers at the deadline.

GM Jerry Dipoto has his ear to the ground, as ever, though it sounds like he’s still vacillating between the buyers and sellers line. Per The Athletic’s Corey Brock, Dipoto offered this recent assessment: “Our bullpen has been awesome, and it was roughly a number of guys who no one has ever heard of that just needed another chance. That’s put us in a really good position right now to be able to make a more aggressive play in the next two, three weeks if the opportunity presents itself. But we’re not going to push the opportunity because we believe this is a window that is open and we want to make sure it stays open. We don’t want to shortchange our long term.”

Their greatest need, should they want to wrench that window open right now, would be to add another starter to an injury-depleted rotation. Logan Gilbert has emerged as an exciting young arm, and Marco Gonzales is healthy again alongside Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Flexen, but they also have nearly a full rotation on the injured list.

As Dipoto noted above, the bullpen has helped shoulder the load thanks to surprisingly competent seasons from Kendall Graveman, JT Chargois, Paul Sewald, and Drew Steckenrider, a foursome that’s accrued 3.3 fWAR of their league-leading 4.5 bullpen fWAR. The Mariners have made a practice of trading away relievers over the years, but this time around they might choose to hold onto a few of them, especially if they can’t find the rotation help they need.

That said, it’s just as likely that Trader Jerry stays true to his history and deals an arm or two to a contender. Brock suggests that Graveman is the most likely Mariner to find himself in a new uniform by August, which certainly makes some sense given his breakout season. Graveman is a free agent at the end of the year, and right now he’s presenting as a difference-maker, a transition from starter to high-leverage arm that began last season. He has locked down eight saves as the Mariners’ closer, pitching to a sterling 0.93 ERA/3.03 FIP across 29 innings.

Even if the Mariners do decide to sell a piece or two, don’t expect Mitch Haniger to be an easy get. Brock notes that Haniger “isn’t likely to be moved unless the Mariners are floored by a deal.”

On the one hand, that might be surprising given the plethora of promising young outfielders in the organization, well-known prospects like Jarred Kelenic, Jake Fraley, Kyle Lewis, Julio Rodriguez and Taylor Trammell. For now, however, Lewis is hurt, Rodriguez has just 14 games of experience in Double-A, and Kelenic and Trammell have stumbled at the big league level with marks of 12 wRC+ and 74 wRC+, respectively.

In the plus column, Fraley has absolutely raked to a 143 wRC+ by way of a .237/.409/.439 triple slash — buoyed by an above-average .202 ISO and eye-opening 22.1 percent walk rate that would be first overall in the game among qualified hitters if he had more plate appearances. Fraley doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of those other names, however, and it’ll take more than 149 plate appearances to anoint him as an above-average regular.

Which is the point, really, both behind Haniger’s value on the trade market and the Mariners’ desire to keep him. Injuries have slowed his ascension to stardom, but since his arrival in Seattle, he’s been a 127 wRC+ hitter with 78 home runs and a .269/.343/.489 triple slash line across 1,751 plate appearances. He’s 30 years old, and with one more season of team control remaining, it’s easy to understand why contenders might ask about his availability.

Despite Haniger’s importance to this lineup, however, and despite the Mariners having a chance to make a run at the playoffs, Trader Jerry likes to deal. Speculatively speaking, Dipoto likely would prefer to get the godfather offer for Haniger that forces his hand, and maybe that makes him more inclined to see that offer where it doesn’t exist. But by all accounts, Dipoto is content to hold him through the deadline.

He could, after all, explore a trade in the offseason. Besides, with Lewis hurt and Rodriguez not yet ready, there’s no real rush to vacate Haniger’s plate appearances. There’s enough run to go around if Servais wants to see Haniger, Fraley, Trammell, and Kelenic all in the lineup at the same time, though that hasn’t been the case thus far.

Still, expect Dipoto to do something. At the very least, he sounds likely to acquire some kind of starting pitcher, with the real question being the quality of arm he’s able/willing to procure.

Mariners Return Rule 5 Pick Will Vest To Tigers

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The Mariners have returned Rule 5 selection Will Vest to the Tigers, the team announced.

The right-hander was selected by Seattle with the 12th overall pick in the Major League phase of the 2020 Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 10, 2020. He was designated for assignment back on July 12th, and now that no team claimed him, he will be returned to the Tigers for one half of the Rule 5 selection fee.

Vest, 26, actually saw a fair amount of playing time with the Mariners, appearing in 32 games and logging 35 innings with a 6.17 ERA/4.17 FIP. He had a 1.38 ERA through his first 12 outings, but things unraveled a bit from there as he allowed 22 earned runs in his next 22 innings.

The control and strikeout numbers aren’t all that encouraging, as a 11.5 percent walk rate is a decent tick above the 8.9 percent league average, and he has only struck out 17.3 percent of opponents, well below the league-average mark of 23.8 percent. Still, there’s enough there to be an interesting arm for the Tigers to take a look at now that he’s back in Detroit. Generally speaking, he did a nice job avoiding barrels and limiting hard contact with a 93.5 mph four-seamer, slider, and change-up.

Mariners’ Evan White To Undergo Season-Ending Hip Surgery

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JULY 16: White has indeed elected to undergo season-ending hip surgery, reports Corey Brock of the Athletic (Twitter link).

JULY 10: Mariners first baseman Evan White was placed on the 10-day injured list on May 14 due to a strained left hip flexor, and his recovery process has already involved one setback, a cortisone shot, and a shift to the 60-day IL.  Now, White’s season is in jeopardy, as Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters (including The Athletic’s Corey Brock and MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) that “the injury is more ominous than we thought.”

A season-ending surgery is a possibility, and whatever direction White and the team takes, “we are hopeful that we have a definitive answer on that in the next couple of days,” Dipoto said.  “My guess is at some point tomorrow, or just after we come out of the break, we’ll have a news update.  But I wouldn’t anticipate having Evan back, perhaps, for the remainder of the year.”

Such a procedure could have a longer-term impact than just the 2021 season.  While obviously the surgery’s intent is to correct White’s hip issue for now and in the future, it can take a while for players to fully adjust and recover from major hip surgery.  Perhaps the most famous recent example was Buster Posey, who had hip surgery late in the 2018 season and didn’t look right for the entire 2019 campaign (though Posey also had the additional physical toll of playing catcher).

Any way you look at it, the surgery is a rough development for the 25-year-old White, who has only 84 games and 306 plate appearances under his belt at the Major League level.  White has hit only .165/.235/.308 in the majors, but he has already made a name for himself as a defensive standout, winning AL Gold Glove honors at first base in his 2020 rookie season.

The 17th overall pick of the 2017 draft, White posted some solid (though not overwhelming) numbers at the plate in his first three minor league seasons, which was enough for the Mariners to confirm him as part of their future by signing White to a six-year contract worth $24MM in guaranteed money.  If all three club options are exercised, the contract maxes out as a nine-year pact worth $55.5MM through the 2028 campaign.

In short, there’s still plenty of time for White to get healthy and establish himself as a Seattle cornerstone, even if his first two seasons haven’t gone as planned.  These types of “pre-career” contract extensions between teams and top prospects have become increasingly popular in recent years, and White’s situation could be used (for better or worse) as an example of why some youngsters might prefer to lock in a big payday at the risk of potentially limiting future earnings.

Mariners Claim Ryan Weber Off Waivers From Brewers

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The Mariners have claimed Ryan Weber off waivers from the Brewers, the two clubs announced. Milwaukee designated Weber for assignment earlier this week after acquiring Kyle Lobstein from the Nationals. To create 40-man roster space, Seattle designated infielder Wyatt Mathisen for assignment.

Weber’s stay in Milwaukee proved quite brief. The Brew Crew added him off waivers from the Red Sox last month, and he ultimately made just a single appearance with the team. He also pitched in one major league game with Boston, but the majority of his experience this season has come at the minors’ highest level.

Between the Red Sox’s and Brewers’ top affiliates, Weber has made nine appearances (eight starts) in Triple-A this year, working to a 5.02 ERA with an average 23.5% strikeout percentage and a strong 6.0% walk rate. The right-hander has been quite good at that level over the course of his career. In parts of six Triple-A seasons, he’s pitched to a stingy 3.08 ERA, striking out hitters at a below-average rate (17.1%) but rarely doling out free passes (5.2% walk percentage) and inducing plenty of groundballs.

To date, he hasn’t carried that success over to the major league level. While Weber’s racked up grounders at a lofty 52.8% clip over his 61 MLB appearances, he’s only managed a 5.27 ERA/4.30 SIERA thanks to a lack of missed bats. Still, the 30-year-old is capable of working as a starter or multi-inning reliever, and he can be optioned for the remainder of the season. So long as he sticks on the 40-man roster, Weber will give the Mariners front office a flexible depth option for the pitching staff.

Seattle acquired Mathisen from the Rays for cash considerations last month. He’s spent his entire Mariners tenure at Triple-A Tacoma, where he’s slumped to a .122/.302/.184 line across 63 plate appearances. That belies a generally strong track record at that level. Mathisen has hit a much better .258/.362/.491 over parts of three Triple-A seasons, but he hasn’t performed well in a brief big league look comprising 84 plate appearances between 2020-21.

The Mariners will have a week to trade Mathisen or expose him to waivers. He’s already been in DFA limbo twice this season — first with the Diamondbacks and then with Tampa Bay — and been acquired by a rival club each time. It wouldn’t be surprising if another team picks him up via small trade or waiver claim, although his most recent struggles with the Rainiers could dissuade clubs from devoting him a 40-man roster spot.

Mariners To Recall Jarred Kelenic

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2:15pm: Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto confirmed in an appearance on 710 ESPN this morning that Kelenic will open the second half back with the big league club (link via 710’s Brandon Gustafson).

“We sent him back, he had a plan to work on,” said Dipoto. “Some of it was how to approach the game and some of it was more skills development-based, and he did everything we asked him to do. …  We think it’s the right time to give it another shot. He’s just too talented to allow him to not gain this exposure and these at-bats at the big league level.”

Presumably, the Mariners will make a formal announcement and corresponding roster move tomorrow.

10:03am: The Mariners are recalling outfielder Jarred Kelenic for the start of the second half, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.

After much controversy earlier this year about service time manipulation and the resignation of Mariners President Kevin Mather, the star prospect was initially promoted in May. However, he struggled in his first 23 games to a line of .096/.185/.193, producing a measly wRC+ of 11. This slump caused the Mariners to option the rookie back to Triple-A Tacoma in June. But since that time, Kelenic has fared much better against Triple-A pitching, with a line of .306/.386/.622, for a wRC+ of 135. One very encouraging sign is Kelenic’s strikeout rate. After striking out in 28.3% of his plate appearances at the big league level, he has cut that essentially in half, to 14.3% since his demotion.

If Kelenic can carry that offensive production to the big league level, it would be a tremendous help to a Mariners team that finds itself in playoff contention, seven games behind the Astros in the AL West and 3.5 behind Oakland for the second wild card spot. The club has a record of 48-43, despite a run differential of -50, which is largely due to only scoring 4.08 runs per game, a rate which ranks 26th out of the 30 MLB clubs.

Kelenic’s initial delay in getting promoted had already prevented him from reaching free agency until after the 2027 season. But this second stint almost certainly prevents him from acquiring Super Two status and reaching arbitration after the 2023 season, which will suppress his earning power during his arbitration years.

With Mitch Haniger and Jake Fraley playing well, Kelenic could potentially take at-bats away from Shed Long Jr., who has limped to a subpar .188/.233/.400 line and wRC+ of 73 so far this year. If Kelenic can hit enough to stay in the mix, Seattle could be facing an outfield logjam in the future. Kyle Lewis tore his meniscus in June but was was playing well before then. And there is also the fast-approaching star prospect Julio Rodriguez, who was recently promoted to Double-A. Haniger is only controlled through 2022 and has often been mentioned as a potential trade chip for the Mariners, as they have been rebuilding in recent years. But that could change if the team continues playing well and maintains contender status.

MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams

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With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.

In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.

American League

Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)

It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.

Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)

The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.

Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)

There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.

Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)

The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.

Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)

Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.

 

(poll link for app users)

National League

Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)

The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.

Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)

The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.

Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)

One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.

Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)

The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.

 

(poll link for app users)

Mariners Release Shane Carle

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The Mariners have released right-hander Shane Carle from his minor league contract, as was first indicated on the Triple-A Transactions log at MLB.com. He’s once again a free agent and can sign with any club.

Carle’s stay with the M’s proved quite brief, as he signed there not even two weeks ago. He tossed a pair of shutout frames for the organization’s Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma before being sent back out to the market. That came on the heels of a nice run with the Reds’ top affiliate in Louisville, where Carle held opponents to six runs in 15 2/3 frames. All told, the 29-year-old has pitched to a 3.06 ERA in 17 2/3 innings while striking out 19.7 percent of his opponents against a 6.6 percent walk rate.

It’s been a couple years since we’ve seen Carle in the Majors. He was a solid member of the Atlanta bullpen in 2018, tossing 63 1/3 innings with a 2.86 earned run average, although there was reason to be skeptical of that number. Carle’s 16.6 percent strikeout rate and 10.4 percent walk rate were both markedly worse than the league average, and he benefited from a low homer-to-flyball rate (4.2 percent) as well as some good fortune on balls in play (.258). Carle generally limited hard contact well in ’18, but it’s difficult to maintain that level of run prevention with sub-par strikeout and walk percentages — particularly in the absence of an elite ground-ball rate.

Carle’s 2019 season represented a notable step back, as he yielded 10 runs in 9 1/3 MLB frames while also pitching to a 5.62 ERA through 40 innings of Triple-A ball between the Braves and Rangers organizations. That shaky showing in 2019 notwithstanding, Carle has pitched well enough with a pair of Triple-A affiliates in 2021 that he could well draw interest from a third organization looking to stockpile some depth.

Mariners Designate Will Vest For Assignment

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The Mariners announced Monday that they’ve designated right-hander Will Vest for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who has been reinstated from the Covid-related injured list.

Vest, the Mariners’ pick in December’s Rule 5 Draft, was selected out of the Tigers organization and had a nice run with the Mariners early in the season. The 26-year-old pitched to a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings in April, albeit with shakier K-BB numbers, and kept his ERA at a respectable 4.03 through the end of May.

Since the calendar flipped to June, however, it’s been increasingly tough for the Mariners to trust Vest. He’s tallied 12 2/3 frames in that time and surrendered 14 runs on 18 hits and eight walks with 11 strikeouts. Overall, he’s tossed 35 innings for the Mariners and been roughed up to the tune of a 6.17 earned run average with a 17.3 percent strikeout rate and an 11.5 percent walk rate.

Were the Mariners playing the way that many onlookers expected, it might be easier for them to continue dedicating a roster spot to Vest for the balance of the season. Doing so would’ve given the Mariners his long-term contractual rights. However, Seattle is five games over .500 and is only three and a half games out of a Wild Card spot. The seven-game gap they’re facing in the division is a bit tougher to surmount, but the Mariners are at least on the periphery of the postseason picture and will have a harder time finding opportunities for a pitcher who cannot be optioned and has looked increasingly overmatched.

Vest will now be placed on outright waivers and, if he clears, must be offered back to the Tigers organization. If a team does claim Vest, he’ll retain his Rule 5 status for the balance of the season.

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