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AL Notes: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Mathis

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Thanks to scandal-besieged Alex Cora’s firing on Tuesday, the Red Sox are in the unfortunate position of having to find a new manager as spring training nears. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom spoke about the situation Wednesday, telling Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and other reporters that the Red Sox don’t yet have an idea where they’ll turn for Cora’s replacement. Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox seem prepared to consider in-house and external candidates for the position. Bloom praised Boston’s current assistant coaches, calling them “an impressive group” and adding, “No reason to think that a number of them wouldn’t deserve consideration for this.” Meanwhile, the Red Sox haven’t yet asked other teams for permission to speak with their assistants. Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro – whom Bloom knows from Tampa Bay – has come up in speculation since Cora’s ouster. However, it’s “unlikely” he’ll be a candidate because the division-rival Rays may not permit Bloom to pilfer other members of their staff, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

More on a couple other AL teams…

  • This has been a busy winter for the Blue Jays, who have made several notable acquisitions as they try to climb back to respectability in 2020. General manager Ross Atkins’ heavy lifting could be done, but the executive stated Wednesday that the team’s still open to another pickup that would make a “significant impact,” per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Atkins revealed such a move would more likely come via trade than free agency, but he cautioned, “Executing trades of significant impact is very difficult to do.” Center field is one area that could still use some help, Atkins suggested, while Nicholson-Smith points to a reliever and a utility player as possible late-winter additions.
  • To this point, the Blue Jays’ biggest offseason add-ons have been starting pitchers. On paper, they’ve greatly upgraded their rotation with the acquisitions of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson. Those three and Matt Shoemaker seem like locks to make up four-fifths of the Blue Jays’ season-opening rotation. Shun Yamaguchi, yet another member of the Jays’ offseason haul, will get an opportunity to win a starting job, according to Atkins (Twitter links via Nicholson-Smith). So will Sean Reid-Foley, who divided his nine major league appearances between Toronto’s rotation and bullpen last season.
  • It doesn’t appear the Rangers’ signing of catcher Robinson Chirinos will put fellow veteran backstop Jeff Mathis’ roster spot in jeopardy. GM Jon Daniels said Wednesday that his expectation is that Chirinos and Mathis will open the season as the Rangers’ catchers, TR Sullivan of MLB.com tweets. If that proves to be the case, Jose Trevino will begin the year at the Triple-A level. But it’s possible Mathis, who’s due a $3MM salary in 2020, may first have to justify his place on the team in spring training. The soon-to-be 37-year-old has been a light-hitting defensive maven throughout his career, but his first season in Texas went poorly on both fronts. Mathis batted .158/.209/.224 en route to an almost unfathomable 2 wRC+ over 244 plate appearances, earned negative defensive marks from Baseball Prospectus and ranked last among position players in fWAR (minus-2.1).

Blue Jays Sign Shun Yamaguchi

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TODAY: The Blue Jays’ deal with Yamaguchi is official.  They’ve signed the right-hander to a two-year, $6.35MM deal, per Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports (via Twitter).

3:35pm: There’s a deal in place, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

2:59pm: The Blue Jays appear to be pressing hard to add Japanese hurler Shun Yamaguchi. According to Sanspo.com (Japanese language link), the sides are closing in on a two-year deal that would pay him around $3MM annually if it’s finalized.

If the sides wrap things up, the Toronto organization will owe the Yomiuri Giants twenty percent of the total guarantee as a transfer fee. Japan’s marquee organization formally posted Yamaguchi on December 3rd.

Yamaguchi, a 32-year-old forkballer, has had plenty of success in Japan’s top league as both a starter and reliever. Once a star closer for the Yokohama BayStars, Yamaguchi has more recently taken the ball to open games for Yomiuri. Last year, working from the rotation, he delivered 170 frames of 2.91 ERA ball with 10.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.

It stands to reason that the starter-needy Blue Jays will at least give Yamaguchi a shot at winning a rotation job out of camp. But the club could also certainly be in the market for relief help, so its intentions aren’t yet clear. Odds are the Jays are drawn in no small part to Yamaguchi’s versatility. He has plenty of experience locking up saves in NPB so could even ultimately be called upon in a high-leverage role if the circumstances warrant.

 

Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Boras, Shapiro

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The Blue Jays have remade their pitching staff this winter with the additions of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi. Along with the return on Matt Shoemaker and the development of Anthony Kay, Trent Thornton, Ryan Borucki and Nate Pearson, the Blue Jays have plenty of options for their 2020 rotation. It doesn’t come together, however, without Ryu at the top. With that in mind, let’s check in on some of the factors that brought the Korean southpaw to Toronto…

  • To remember the last time one of Scott Boras’ clients signed with the Blue Jays, he had to go all the way back to the mid-eighties. Bill Caudill signed a two-year, $2.37MM deal to play the 1985 and 1986 seasons in Toronto. Caudill is now one of a couple ex-clients to work for Boras. But until Hyun-Jin Ryu’s four-year, $80MM deal, the Blue Jays were one of Boras’ favorite teams to pick on, per the Athletic’s John Lott. It wasn’t personal, of course, Boras simply believes Toronto’s market should make them a top-10 team capable of signing top free agents while retaining their own homegrown stars – a trend he’s starting to see with the current Toronto regime. And of course, it behooves Boras to push potential large market teams to open their wallets.
  • As for Ryu’s choice to join the Blue Jays, the decision largely came down to where he wanted to raise his young family. That said, Toronto’s early and persistent interest also helped bring Ryu north of the border, per the Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath. Long-term security wasn’t necessarily a driving factor for Ryu, though securing a four-year deal for the 32-year-old certainly counts as a win for Boras. Team President Mark Shapiro spoke on Ryu’s importance to the community, saying: “It was more recognizing what an incredibly international city Toronto is, very aware of the Korean population here, both in students and business and what a tightknit community it is. And so feeling like it would be a great place for Ryu and his family to be and feeling like it would be a great synergy with Toronto and Canada, in general. That was a consideration — not a driving factor, but certainly something that we thought would make for a great alignment in the relationship moving forward.”

Mark Shapiro On Blue Jays’ Offseason

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Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro joined Sportsnet’s Tim and Sid (link to YouTube) to discuss the state of the team’s offseason efforts. He emphasized that “there’s still a good amount of offseason left” and suggested further additions are yet to come.

Shapiro acknowledged that the market has driven salaries higher than anticipated. In response, the club has “adjusted our threshold on players and gone … a certain percentage higher than we thought we would go.”

That still hasn’t resulted in any major additions, with Shapiro explaining that a variety of circumstances have kept the Jays from locking up certain targets. One particular challenge, he suggested, lies in convincing players of the team’s readiness to win games. That seems to present a bit of a chicken/egg dilemma, though obviously the organization hopes that its on-field output will improve from within as well as benefiting from new additions.

So what of the hoped for “significant additions”? Shapiro says the club has “already added” — a nod to the still-unofficial Tanner Roark and Shun Yamaguchi additions — and is “not done this winter.” (Shapiro suggests the club values Yamaguchi for his ability to provide rotation depth and “upside out of the pen.” ) But Shapiro acknowledged it’s less likely now than it once was that the club will install one major player, though he made clear he’s still holding out hope.

Shapiro asks that the organization be judged at the end of the winter and based upon the entirety of the roster movement that occurs. He believes there’ll be “significant” improvement by that standard when camp opens in the spring.

But Shapiro also left some unmistakable warnings not to expect too much. He cited the need to maintain “future flexibility” for a hoped-for “window of opportunity,” explaining that the organization must “grudgingly approach giving up that flexibility.” And when asked about potentially adding to the position-player mix, Shapiro used the opportunity to explain why the organization is hesitant to “give up” on certain players, proffering Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher as examples.

Free Agent Rumors: Ryu, Ozuna, Cards, Twins, Rays, Kendrick

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A slew of high-profile free agents have fared better than expected on the open market this winter, which has been the quickest-paced offseason we’ve seen in a while. Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, no doubt the most appealing unsigned starter remaining, could soon ink his own richer-than-anticipated contract. While MLBTR predicted a three-year, $54MM deal for Ryu when the offseason began, there’s now a belief across the industry that he’ll get at minimum a four-year pact worth better than $17MM per annum, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. On at least an annual basis, that type of accord would beat out the five-year, $85MM payday the Diamondbacks handed fellow lefty Madison Bumgarner on Sunday. Age (33 in March) and an extensive injury history could work against Ryu’s bid to cash in, but at the same time, there is no question he was one of the majors’ premier starters in 2019. The longtime Dodger fired 182 2/3 innings of 2.32 ERA/3.10 FIP ball with 8.03 K/9, 1.18 BB/9 and a 50.4 percent groundball rate. Ryu rode those numbers to a second-place finish the NL Cy Young balloting, and they could help him to a rich contract in the coming weeks.

  • Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated last week the team was still trying to re-sign outfielder Marcell Ozuna. That continues to be the case, according to The Athletic’s Mark Saxon, who tweets that St. Louis remains “engaged in trying to” re-up its most prominent free agent. However, it appears “unlikely” the Cardinals will succeed, Saxon observes. Ozuna’s coming off a pair of productive seasons as a Cardinal, which could aid him in securing a lucrative three- or four-year contract in St. Louis or elsewhere.
  • The Twins are interested in Japanese righty Shun Yamaguchi, per Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. Teams have until Jan. 2 to negotiate with Yamaguchi, whom the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball posted Dec. 3. Yamaguchi was a starter and a reliever in Japan, so it’s unclear how the Twins will use the 32-year-old if they do sign him. It’s worth noting that even after retaining Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda in recent weeks, the reigning AL Central champions appear to have holes in their rotation.
  • Earlier this offseason, playoff hero Howie Kendrick chose to re-sign with the Nationals on a one-year, $6.25MM guarantee. But it turns out the Rays, once the reported front-runners to sign Kendrick, actually outbid the Nationals. They offered the 36-year-old infielder more money and term than Washington gave him, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Kendrick could have been part of the first base/designated hitter mix for the Rays, who just added a potential solution for at least one of those spots in Japanese free agent Yoshitomo Tsutsugo.

Ryosuke Kikuchi, Shun Yamaguchi Formally Posted

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Major League Baseball has announced that infielder Ryosuke Kikuchi (Hiroshima Carp) and right-handed pitcher Shun Yamaguchi (Yomiuri Giants) are each formally available through the posting process. Their posting periods opened this morning at 8am EST and will continue through 5pm EST on January 2nd.

Neither of these players is a surprise entrant to the marketplace at this point. In both cases, their respective Japanese teams had already assented to the players’ desires to explore a move to the majors. But today’s news does set the timeline for a deal to be struck.

It’s tough to say at this point how the market will develop for these two long-time Nippon Professional Baseball standouts. Countrymen Shogo Akiyama and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, both of whom are also attempting an MLB transition, are generally better-known players on this side of the Pacific. At least, it’s easier to think about precisely how those stars — a center fielder and lefty-swinging slugger — might fit into specific roster situations.

Kikuchi, 29, is a glove-first second baseman. He’s a contact and speed-oriented offensive player who doesn’t stand out in the NPB for his hitting ability. Over his career, Kikuchi carries an uninspiring .271/.315/.391 batting line at Japan’s highest level of play. While he’s regarded as a truly exceptional defender, there are quite a few second basemen available at the moment and it’s not a position at which teams have prioritized glovework of late. Interest in Kikuchi may depend upon whether MLB teams believe he’s capable of lining up at shortstop.

As for Yamaguchi, 32, it’s possible to imagine just about any team in the majors having interest. He has served alternatively as a late-inning reliever and quality starter. There have been some peaks and valleys over the years, but Yamaguchi was in good form last season, when he spun 170 innings of 2.91 ERA ball with 10.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Whether or not there’s serious interest in Yamaguchi as a true starter remains to be seen, but there’s little doubt he’d at least be an intriguing candidate to function in a “bulk” role or as a more traditional reliever.

Under the current posting system, a Major League team that signs one of these players would owe his former team 20 percent of the first $25MM guaranteed, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, plus 15 percent of any dollars spent north of $50MM. That release fee is paid in addition to the guarantee itself. Contract options and performance incentives, once unlocked or triggered, are subject to a supplemental 15 percent release fee. For minor league deals, MLB clubs pay out 25 percent of the player’s signing bonus, and the player’s salary upon being added to the 25-man roster is subject to a supplemental posting fee.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Largest Guarantee Among Potential NPB Imports

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In addition to the dozens of veteran free agents still looking for new homes this offseason, there are currently three decorated players from the Nippon Professional Baseball ranks who are currently available to stateside clubs via the MLB posting system. First baseman Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, pitcher Shun Yamaguchi, and second baseman Ryosuke Kikuchi have already been posted this winter; a fourth player, outfielder Shogo Akiyama, is an international free agent. While none of these players promise, like countrymen Shohei Ohtani or Yu Darvish before them, to be franchise building blocks, each offers unique value to potential American suitors.

Looking for a lefty bat with pop? Tsutsugo is your man. Since 2014, the 6’0 slugger has blasted an average of 30.83 home runs per season while playing for the Yokohama BayStars, peaking with totals of 44 and 38 round-trippers in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The now-28-year-old couples that raw power with the patient approach modern clubs covet, recording a 15.1 percent walk rate over the last four seasons, while also doing a generally acceptable job of limiting strikeouts.

As for his defense? Well, Jason Coskrey of Baseball America recently said he’s “not a terrible fielder by any means, but he’s not a great one either”. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a player who has shuttled between first, third, and left field in a ten-year Nipponese career. Clubs may be wary of committing multiple years, a hefty guarantee, and a posting fee (more on that in a moment) for a player who may end up suited for DH duties.

How about teams in search of a veteran starting pitcher to slot into their rotation’s back end? 32-year-old righty Shun Yamaguchi throws a fastball that sits around 90 mph, with a forkball representing his primary breaking pitch. That surely doesn’t sound like the most glamorous mix of attributes, but what Yamaguchi can offer is a wealth of experience and a good deal of forward momentum. Despite having pitched over 1000 innings stretching between the bullpen and the rotation in an NPB career dating back to 2006, Yamaguchi may have found another gear in 2019.

In addition to posting a 2.91 ERA over 26 starts, his 10.0 K/9 and 3.13 K/BB ratios last season marked personal bests as a starter. This offseason has already been slightly unpredictable when it comes to starting pitching, with Jake Odorizzi foregoing the open market and an inconsistent Kyle Gibson garnering a three-year, $30MM deal from the Rangers. For teams leery of even approaching the market’s top trifecta of starting arms, Yamaguchi, though likely not a world-beater, could represent an appealing value play.

Then there’s the slick-fielding Ryosuke Kikuchi. For teams in need of second base help and defensive improvement in the infield–and there are a few teams who fit within that category–Kikuchi may be a perfect match. The 29-year-old has won every Golden Glove at the keystone in the NPB’s Central League since 2013. While his defensive excellence seems to be universally upheld, there are some persistent questions as to how the bat will travel. Since debuting with the Hiroshima Carp in 2012, the righty swinger has logged a cumulative .271/.315/.391 line across a rather healthy sample of 4695 plate appearances.

Kikuchi’s .261/.313/.406 slash from last year would look acceptable in the majors from a defensively adept second baseman, but such production in the offensively friendly Japanese ranks may give some MLB front offices reason to pause; those that remember the trials of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Munenori Kawasaki, two other former Golden Glove NPB infielders who proved unable to adapt to MLB pitching, may simply stay away altogether.

Big league teams interested in any of these players will have to pay their parent clubs posting fees proportional to the size of the player’s contract: 20 percent of the first $25MM guaranteed; 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, plus 15 percent of every dollar over $50MM. That release fee is separate from the guarantee itself (for instance, a $25MM guarantee for one of these players would result in an additional $5MM posting fee, bringing the MLB club’s total expense to $30MM).

Performance incentives and contract options will trigger a supplemental 15 percent release fee once unlocked. For a minor league deal, an MLB club will be required to give a parent club 25 percent of the player’s signing bonus, and the player’s MLB salary will be subject to a supplemental posting fee if he is added to the club’s 25-man roster.

Shogo Akiyama probably represents the most well-rounded player expected to make the leap this offseason, and he was the only expected NPB import from this offseason to land within our Top 50 MLB Free Agent list. Considered a true center fielder and leadoff man by most, Akiyama set the NPB single-season record for hits (216) in the 2015 season. He’s won six Golden Gloves in his home country, hit 69 home runs over his last three seasons with the Seibu Lions, and holds a 10.8 percent walk rate since 2016. Two problems: Akiyama will be 32 next April, a rather advanced age for an up-the-middle player, and he suffered a broken bone in his foot during an exhibition on Oct 31 and will need to show he is healthy in order to sign with an MLB team.

There’s certainly a chance some of these players may not come stateside this offseason, but each seems to represent a coveted potential asset in their own right. This year’s free agent market is generally slim pickings when it comes to center fielders, so Akiyama’s availability, in particular, is probably a welcome development for a number of clubs; better yet, he is free to sign a new deal with any club without being subject to the posting system and its concomitant fees.

Still, it’s fair to wonder if he can truly be considered the most viable play here.  Tsutsugo offers immense immense power and relative youth, while there seems to be a fair number of clubs circling starting pitching options like Yamaguchi this offseason.

Which one do you believe is likely to receive the healthiest contract guarantee this winter? (Poll link for app users)


Quick Hits: 40-Man Rosters, Cubs, Japanese FAs

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As we approach the non-tender deadline and the Rule 5 draft, many of the 40-man roster changes may seem inconsequential from a league perspective. But for those players involved, a spot on a 40-man roster can be life-changing. As noted by Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, a minor league player’s pay will jump from $2000 a month to at least $46,000 for the year once added to the 40-man. That’s a significant pay bump, but their potential for future earnings also gets a jolt as they receive an invite to spring camp and a longer look from major league coaches and executives. Even one day on the ML roster during the season will earn a player more in a week than he’d likely ever made in a month of minor league ball. Given the roster churn that happens over the course of a season and the high rate of injuries, a spot on the 40-man roster gives a player a pretty decent chance of making an appearance in the show. Feel free to take a moment this morning to reflect on baseball’s greater economic landscape, then follow up with a couple quick hits from around the league.

  • The Cubs are in the market for pitching, but probably not the top names on the free agent market, per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney. The Cubs haven’t been able to put together a pitching staff like the one that took them to a World Series title in 2016, and they no longer have the financial leeway to make a big splash like they did with the signing of Jon Lester. Only Kyle Hendricks remains close to the guy he was in 2016 when Hendricks, Lester, and Jake Arrieta each put together seasons worthy of Cy Young consideration en route to the curse-breaking championship. The Cubs of today will have to hit on below-the-radar type acquisitions, as they did in acquiring Arrieta and Hendricks in the first place. Willson Contreras could fetch a noteworthy piece, but that’s a theoretical valuation that requires a trading partner willing to move the right young arm.
  • While ardent fans are familiar with most of the names in the free agent pool, there are a few newcomers from Japanese professional baseball who remain relatively unknown commodities to American followers. Thankfully, Jason Coskrey of Baseball America provides scouting reports on a host of Japanese ballplayers who could find themselves on MLB rosters in the not-too-distant future. It’s a list that includes three players who have already been posted—Ryosuke Kikuchi, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, and Shun Yamaguchi—and Shogo Akiyama, an international free agent, all of whom are eligible to negotiate with big league clubs. Coskrey also names a number of players who could be next in line to make it stateside via the posting system or international free agency, including the famed Tetsuto Yamada. For those readers who are interested in familiarizing themselves with the newest influx of international talent to the MLB landscape, Coskrey’s piece is worth a look.

Yomiuri Giants Post Shun Yamaguchi

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Nov. 18: The Giants announced today that Yamaguchi has indeed been posted (link via the Japan Times). Major League teams will now have 30 days to negotiate with the right-hander.

“I will take a shot at my dream of playing in the majors,” Yamaguchi said at a press conference. “I’d like to express my appreciation to Yomiuri Giants officials, manager Mr. (Tatsunori) Hara, my coaches, teammates and fans for the past three years. I will work even harder as I pursue a new challenge.”

Nov. 17: Right-hander Shun Yamaguchi has asked his team, the Yomiuri Giants, that he be posted and allowed to negotiate with MLB teams, according to reports from Sankei Sports (hat tip to reporter Jim Allen).  Notably, the Giants have never posted a player in franchise history, meaning that it would be a considerable step for Yamaguchi to make it stateside.

The 32-year-old Yamaguchi has 14 years of experience in Nippon Professional Baseball, as he broke in with the Yokohama BayStars when he was just 18 years old.  After making 11 starts in his first two pro seasons, Yamaguchi was moved to the bullpen, and he posted impressive numbers as Yokohama’s closer from 2009-2012.  He began to transition back to starting pitching in 2014, and has worked almost exclusively out of the rotation ever since, culminating in a 2019 season that saw him lead NPB in both strikeouts (188) and wins (15) while pitching 170 innings.

As noted by Allen in a scouting report of Yamaguchi, the righty averages roughly 90.1mph on his fastball, though his top pitch is a splitter.  Yamaguchi also has an off-the-field black mark on his resume, as he reportedly shoved a security guard and injured his pitching hand during a drunken incident in July 2017, though Allen notes that this seems to have been an isolated case of bad behavior.

“MLB scouts I’ve spoken to see him as either a back-of-the-rotation starter or a bullpen guy, largely because he has not established his current level of success,” Allen writes.  It remains to be seen what type of interest Yamaguchi would draw in this offseason’s free agent market, though it could end up being a moot point if Yomiuri refuses to post him or release him from his contract.

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