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Cardinals To Part Ways With Paul Goldschmidt, Could Reduce Payroll This Winter

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The Cardinals do not plan on bringing veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt back in 2025, according to a report from The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Goldschmidt is scheduled to hit free agency this offseason, and while the club had previously been rumored to have interest in bringing him back for 2025, it now appears the club will part ways with the future Hall of Famer. For his part, Goldschmidt has made clear that he plans to continue his career into 2025.

Goldschmidt isn’t the only player expected to depart this offseason. According to Woo, it’s unlikely that any of the club’s pending free agents will return to the club next year as the club pivots towards a focus on bolstering its player development apparatus. Woo specifically noted that relievers Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton are expected to land elsewhere this winter, though she emphasized it was not yet clear whether veteran starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are included in the expected exodus. St. Louis holds identical $12MM club options on the duo’s services for next year, each with a $1MM buyout.

Woo also notes that a reduction to the major league payroll could be on the horizon as the club reinvests in player development, echoing a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale early today that indicated the Cardinals could shop veteran right-hander Sonny Gray as they look to cut payroll. Woo did not explicitly suggest that Gray will be shopped, but did list the right-hander among a handful of veteran Cardinals players whose futures with the club could be put “into question” by a drop in payroll this winter alongside third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and closer Ryan Helsley. MLBTR discussed Gray’s potential trade candidacy earlier today in conjunction with Nightengale’s report, which noted the Reds as a potential suitor for the veteran’s services.

If the Cardinals are going to look at shopping Gray this winter amid an effort to reduce payroll, it’s only natural that the club could entertain offers on a number of other high-priced veterans as well. Contreras, in particular, could be a sensible candidate for the club to move this winter. The 32-year-old backstop has been nothing short of phenomenal with the bat since he joined the Cardinals prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing an impressive .263/.367/.468 (133 wRC+) in 209 games with St. Louis as he’s sustained the offense breakout he enjoyed during his final season with the Cubs in 2022.

With that being said, not everything has gone well for Contreras since he joined the club. The veteran was temporarily moved off of catcher after just six weeks in the organization, only to be reinstated as the Cubs regular catcher shortly thereafter. Per Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Contreras was worth -3 runs behind the plate last year that was his worst figure since 2019. Those defensive struggles behind the plate led the club’s coaches to suggest Contreras move closer to the plate while catching. The strategy seems to have worked to improve his defense at the position as his FRV improved to +0 this year, but it came at a substantial cost as the veteran suffered an arm fracture that required surgery earlier this year after being struck by a swing from Mets DH J.D. Martinez.

Given the Cardinals’ concerns regarding Contreras’s defense, the $54.5MM due to him over the next three seasons, and the presence of up-and-coming youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages ready to take on larger roles in the majors, it would hardly be a surprise if the Cardinals decided to listen to offers on the veteran catcher this offseason. Given his success at the plate over the past three years, it seems reasonable to expect that teams would have interest in the veteran’s services even if they joined in St. Louis’s suspicions regarding his defense behind the plate, as he could move to a first base or DH role fairly seamlessly if an acquiring club wanted to make such a switch. Of course, it’s also possible that there’s a club that either believes they can improve Contreras’s defense or is willing to sacrifice defensive value behind the plate in order to fit a middle-of-the-order bat into its lineup and would be happy to employ Contreras as a catcher as well.

Arenado, on the other hand, could be trickier for the club to move in the event they shop him. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer opted in for the final five years and $144MM of his contract with the club prior to the 2023 season in a move that, at the time, was somewhat surprising. With that being said, the third baseman hasn’t looked like the MVP candidate he was earlier in his career over the two seasons since then. In 296 games with St. Louis over the past two seasons, Arenado has hit just .269/.320/.426. That’s still good for an above-average 104 wRC+ and, in conjunction with his strong but no longer elite defense at third base, has been good for 5.8 fWAR total over the past two years.

While that level of production still casts Arenado as a clearly valuable player even as he enters his mid 30s, it’s easy to imagine rival clubs balking at the idea of giving up significant prospect capital while also taking on the remaining three years and $74MM left on Arenado’s deal with the club, though it’s worth noting that the Rockies are paying down $5MM of that figure per year to reduce the total burden to just $59MM over three seasons.

Another factor that can’t be ignored is that Arenado, Contreras, and Gray all have full no-trade clauses at present, meaning any of them could block trades to any teams that they wish. That’s not necessarily always an obstacle to a trade, as players with no-trade protection will often waive those rights in the event that their teams wants to move on, but it does offer each veteran significant leverage in the event that the Cardinals look to move on from any of them. That leverage could be used to ensure they get traded to a preferred organization or in order to get additional financial incentives in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause, as Arenado did when he agreed to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt from the Rockies to the Cardinals in exchange for an additional year and $15MM added to the end of his contract.

None of those considerations apply to Helsley, who is set to go through arbitration for the third and final time this winter. He’s sure to garner a substantial raise over his $3.8MM salary from the 2024 season after a phenomenal year that’s seen the 30-year-old pitch to a 2.04 ERA (207 ERA+) with an eye-popping 38.2% strikeout rate and an MLB-best 49 saves in 66 1/3 innings of work this year. It’s the third consecutive dominant season for the righty, as he’s now posted a combined 1.83 ERA (227 ERA+) with a 2.35 FIP and 225 strikeouts and 82 saves in 167 2/3 innings of work since he broke out back in 2021.

Helsley should still come at a reasonable financial cost even after accounting for the pay bump he figures to receive this winter, and with a commitment of just one year it’s likely he could be among the most sought-after relief arms on the market this winter if the Cardinals were to make him available. With that being said, Helsley’s utter dominance this season and relatively affordable salary could mean that the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto their closer if they hope to remain competitive in 2025, particularly since he would likely be almost as valuable at the trade deadline next summer so long as he remains healthy and effective.

Circling back to Goldschmidt, the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer is now slated to become a free agent for the first time in his career come November. He’ll do some coming off the worst season of his career, having hit just .245/.301/.412 with a wRC+ of 99 in 153 games this year while setting a career high strikeout rate and a career low walk rate. That brutal platform campaign in conjunction with his age will surely keep Goldschmidt from garnering anything close to what top-of-the-class first basemen like Pete Alonso or even Christian Walker will in free agency this winter, but there’s still enough reason for optimism in his profile to imagine a club with a hole at first base giving the veteran an everyday job.

After all, he’s just two seasons removed from winning the NL MVP award with a dominant offensive performance, and it’s also worth noting that he improved as the season went on. From May 12 onward, Goldschmidt hit a respectable .262/.309/.462 with a 113 wRC+ in 491 trips to the plate. While that’s a far cry from the perennial All-Star he once was, even that level of production would be good for 13th among qualified first basemen this year, ahead of even well-regarded regulars like Ryan Mountcastle and Vinnie Pasquantino.

Cardinals Pursuing “Shift In Philosophy”; John Mozeliak, Oliver Marmol To Remain In Current Roles

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The Cardinals’ 83-79 record is a big improvement on their dismal 71-91 mark from 2023, yet the team still ended up well short of the playoffs, let alone in any serious contention.  Multiple reports over the last few days have indicated that the team will respond to the situation with a planned overhaul of both the player development department and minor league system, which could include some paring of the big league payroll so the Cards can reinvest in the lower levels of the organizational ladder.

While president of baseball operations John Mozeliak didn’t discuss payroll during an interview with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Mozeliak did confirm several of these earlier reports, and an overall “shift in philosophy” for the team.  “Instead of looking for short-term answers, we’re going to try to take more of a long view,” Mozeliak said.

To this end, the Cardinals are “shifting to a heavy emphasis that puts it back on scouting and player development.  I would say that over the past 10 years or so we’ve run a lean operation, and part of that was to allow us to maximize success at the major-league level.  But over time you learn that machine can wear down.  It’s just not producing at the level it once did. That’s not to say our minor leagues are in disarray.  But an emphasis on infrastructure is something we have been taking a very serious look at.”

Chaim Bloom will indeed be taking on “a more impactful role” within the St. Louis front office after spending the last year as an adviser with the team.  Bloom will continue to work with the MLB roster but seems to largely be focused on the player development side, and Mozeliak didn’t specify what (if any) exact title Bloom might have in this expanded role.  In general, however, Mozeliak said Bloom’s “voice on the decision tree is going up.  He’s no longer observing.  It’s about helping implement a plan.”

Mozeliak will still be the lead voice in the baseball ops department, as he told Goold that he’ll return in his current role for the 2025 season.  Mozeliak has been running the Cardinals’ front office since the 2007-08 offseason, and at the time of his last contract extension, he stated that he would gradually be looking to scale back some duties to others in advance of the end of that extension, which is up after the 2025 campaign.  The Cards’ recent struggles led to some speculation that Mozeliak might step down a year early or at least move into another role in the organization, in order to let Bloom, GM Mike Girsch, or someone else take over as the team’s new president of baseball ops.

Oliver Marmol will also be returning as manager in 2025, Mozeliak confirmed.  Marmol signed an extension last spring that runs through the 2026 season, so between that deal and the Cardinals’ improvement from 2023, it isn’t exactly a surprise that Marmol will return to the dugout.  Of course, Marmol also drew a lot of criticism given the lack of playoff baseball in St. Louis over the last two seasons, leading to whispers that the team could potentially replace him with another prominent Cardinal name (i.e. Yadier Molina, or the newly-available Skip Schumaker).

“As we shift, I think Oli is going to be someone who has a tremendous coaching and development background,” Mozeliak said.  “So I think some of his strengths will really shine as we make that shift directionally on what we’re going to look like for the next couple of years.”

While Mozeliak and Marmol will return, some level of changes are expected within the front office, and perhaps to Marmol’s coaching staff.  It is perhaps notable that Mozeliak seemingly didn’t address Girsch’s status in the interview with Goold, though there isn’t any indication that Girsch’s job could be in jeopardy.  Girsch signed an extension of an undisclosed length following the 2022 season, and he has been with St. Louis in variety of roles since 2006, including the general manager’s position since the 2017 season.

More details on the Cardinals’ plans will be revealed by Mozeliak and team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. in a press conference on Monday.  Some more light could be shed on what exactly the Cards’ renewed focus on player development might mean for the 26-man roster and the team’s offseason spending.  Mozeliak made no mention of a rebuild, or reshuffle, or any other buzzword used to describe a step back from contending, and it is hard to imagine the St. Louis fanbase would take kindly to such a change in direction from an organization so used to consistent success.

The Cardinals haven’t had consecutive losing records (in non-shortened seasons) since 1958-59, a streak that continued with this year’s 83-win campaign.  Still, just getting back over .500 wasn’t enough for many St. Louis fans, as attendance dropped under the three-million mark this season.

“I understand from a fan perspective expectations are high,” Mozeliak said.  “I’d be lying to you if I said I didn’t notice it.  We certainly want to get back to creating a game-day experience that our fans appreciate and want to experience and enjoy.  Part of that obviously is winning baseball.  Part of that is enhancing that experience.”

Report: Cardinals Open To Offers On Sonny Gray

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After a second consecutive season where they’ll miss the playoffs, the Cardinals organization appears to be in flux. With a presser scheduled for early in this coming week, rumors have swirled that the club is set to make some notable organizational changes to kick off their offseason. Those changes figure to be headlined by former Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom stepping into a larger role with the club’s baseball operations department, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports this morning that this offseason’s changes could carry over to the big league roster as well. Per Nightengale, the Cardinals are willing to listen to offers on veteran right-hander Sonny Gray just one year after signing him to a hefty three-year, $75MM deal as the team hopes to cut payroll entering next year.

The notion of St. Louis looking to trim down its payroll isn’t exactly a shocking one. Cardinals attendance dropped below 3 million this year for the first time since 2003 (ignoring the pandemic-impacted seasons of 2020 and 2021), leaving the club with less gate revenue than expected. Meanwhile, the TV revenue side of things isn’t much rosier as the Cardinals are one of the teams impacted by the ongoing Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy. While MLB and the Players’ Association agreed back in July to redirect funds towards clubs that have lost TV revenue amid Diamond’s troubles, it would hardly be a surprise if the club’s budgets going forward were impacted by this revenue uncertainty.

Even if the overall baseball operations budget isn’t reduced, it’s still possible to imagine the club’s player payroll dropping heading into 2025. After all, The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported on the state of the Cardinals organization earlier this week and described a situation where the club has begun to prioritize major league payroll over investing in the organization’s development infrastructure, resulting in cuts to key areas of player development in order to sustain an ever-growing payroll at the big league level. With changes to the front office seemingly on the horizon, it’s certainly plausible that the club could pare back its payroll in order to invest in a more robust player development apparatus.

That possibility of a lower big league payroll next year leads back to Gray, who will see his back-loaded salary rise from $10MM this year to $25MM in 2025. While RosterResource at Fangraphs suggests St. Louis has just $108MM in guaranteed commitments for next year, that doesn’t include an increasingly expensive arbitration class including key players like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Ryan Helsley. Nor does it include the possibility of the club deciding to exercise its club option on one or both of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, each of which are $12MM options with $1MM buyouts. With Gray’s $15MM raise this year and those possible additions to the payroll, it’s easy to see why the Cardinals may need to trade salary away in order to address the roster’s needs this winter even after shedding Paul Goldschmidt’s $26MM salary when he reaches free agency in November.

With that being said, losing Gray would be a major blow to St. Louis’s hopes of contending next year. The veteran right-hander had something of a down season in his first year with the Cardinals, posting a 3.84 ERA that’s just 9% better than league average by ERA+. Even so, Gray’s 3.12 FIP was nothing short of excellent and he remains just one year removed from a dominant season with the Twins that saw him finish second in AL Cy Young award voting behind Gerrit Cole. The 34-year-old hurler would likely be an improvement to just about any club’s rotation next year, but it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals themselves finding an adequate replacement for the right-hander internally coming off a season where the club’s starters collective posted a 4.36 ERA that ranks 21st in the majors and a 4.08 FIP that ranks 15th even with Gray in the fold.

What’s more, the hefty salary that could lead the Cardinals to consider dealing Gray could prove to be an anchor that makes him surprisingly difficult to trade. Between his salary for the next two years and a $5MM buyout on his option for 2027, Gray is owed $65MM over the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum for any club to take on, and it could be especially problematic for clubs at or near the luxury tax. Upon being traded, contracts are recalculated for luxury tax purposes based on the remaining dollars and years on the deal, meaning that an acquiring team would be accepting a hit of nearly $32.5MM to their luxury tax ledger over the next two years by trading for Gray. Even if the Cardinals can find a trade partner willing to stomach that cost, Gray’s full no-trade clause could further complicate things by allowing him to block any deal if so chooses.

That’s not to say a deal would be completely impossible, of course. Plenty of players with no-trade clauses and even larger contracts than Gray have been dealt over the years, and if the Cardinals are sufficiently motivated to get a deal done there will surely be suitors for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber. Nightengale suggests that the Reds, for whom Gray pitched from 2019-21 and made his second career trip to the All-Star game, could have interest in a reunion if the veteran is made available this winter.

The Reds have had a disappointing season in 2024 but nonetheless sport an exciting young core of talent led by right-hander Hunter Greene and shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Adding Gray as an experienced, front-of-the-rotation veteran would be a huge boost for a Cincinnati rotation that appears likely to lose Nick Martinez to free agency this year but still has a number of interesting young arms behind Greene such as Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and Graham Ashcraft. Any of those young arms would surely be attractive to St. Louis as a potential return for Gray’s services given their own rotation needs, though it seems likely that the Cardinals would need to retain some money in order to facilitate such a deal given the Reds’ typically low payrolls and Gray’s large contract.

Chaim Bloom To Take On Larger Role In Cardinals’ Front Office

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The Cardinals are set to hold a press conference early next week, and it’s already been reported that there will be some notable organizational changes announced at that time. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat suggested as much earlier this week, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported a couple weeks back that former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, hired as an adviser last winter, could see his role expand. That’ll indeed be the case, and Katie Woo of The Athletic now further details that Bloom will be tasked with hiring a new director of player development and overhauling that department.

It’s not fully clear what title Bloom will hold, but Woo spoke with multiple Cardinals staffers about the manner in which their player development system — once the gold standard in the sport — has become antiquated and been neglected over time. Cardinals employees who spoke to Woo for a simultaneously fascinating and damning overview of the organization suggest the club is lacking in coordinators, minor league coaches, technology and other resources, leaving players unprepared to make the jump to the majors.

That’s created a vicious cycle, forcing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak to spend more in free agency to offset the lack of homegrown contributors. In doing so, he’s increasingly had to allocate his baseball operations budget to the big league roster at the expense of player development. It’s become a self-fulfilling prophecy in many ways. Readers (especially Cardinals fans) are encouraged to check out Woo’s piece in full for an exhaustive breakdown of how the Cardinals’ once unparalleled development practices have faltered and failed to position touted prospects like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, Dylan Carlson and others for big league success.

From an even bigger-picture standpoint, the matter of Mozeliak’s future with the club has also been thrust into the spotlight. He’s signed through 2025 and has suggested previously that he’s likely to step down after that contract. MLB.com’s John Denton reports that it’s at least possible Mozeliak steps aside or transitions to a different role sooner than the end of his contract, however. Changes on the coaching front are expected too, as Jones reported earlier this week. Woo writes that manager Oli Marmol is expected to remain in place but points out that hitting coaches Turner Ward and Brandon Allen, game-planning coach Packy Elkins, first base coach Stubby Clapp and assistant pitching coach Julio Rangel are all signed only through the current season.

The full scope of the looming changes likely won’t be ascertainable until the Cardinals host their press conference Monday. What’s increasingly clear is that ownership and the majority of the baseball operations and player development staff recognize that changes are needed. Whether that results in a rebuilding effort of any magnitude isn’t yet clear. Woo reports that the Cardinals do not intend to go into a tanking-style rebuild but also plan to shift more focus on building up the player development staff and strengthening the minor league system.

Marmol, for his part, isn’t speaking like a manager who expects a pronounced step back. The recent focus on getting to 82 wins to avoid the first back-to-back losing seasons the Cardinals have endured in six decades hasn’t sat well with him, he tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “It’s not a goal of mine when I go into a season to only finish above .500, if I’m being quite honest,” says Marmol. “I understand not wanting to have back-to-back losing seasons. We have aspirations for a lot more than that, and we have to build toward it, bottom line.”

Goold joins the rest of the Cards beat in reporting that large-scale changes are indeed expected Monday at a press conference where the team’s “next direction” will be among the topics. The Cardinals face several pivotal decisions, many of them on aging veterans. They hold $12MM club options over starters Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn — both coming with a $1MM buyout. Paul Goldschmidt is a free agent, though there’s been talk of a potential reunion. Veteran reliever Andrew Kittredge is also a free agent, and the Cards have some interest in re-signing him. The 2025 season is closer Ryan Helsley’s final year of club control. Prospects like Walker and Gorman aren’t necessarily at a crossroads but have also failed to cement themselves in the team’s plans. Both were optioned to the minors this season, though both have at least one option year remaining beyond the current season (two, in Gorman’s case).

Monday’s press conference should shed light on how some of those vital organizational decisions will play out. The broad takeaway, for now, is that simply maintaining the status quo no longer feels tenable.

Cardinals Rumors: Front Office, Gibson, Kittredge

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It’s been another disappointing season for the Cardinals and their fans — one that has manifested in manners not previously seen at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals announced over the weekend that the season-long attendance clocked in at 2.8 million fans. As Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat points out, that marks the first time since Busch Stadium III opened in 2006 that the Cards have sold fewer than three million tickets in a season.

Jones adds that the Cardinals are expected to host an end-of-season press conference as soon as next Monday, writing that “staffing changes which stretch from the front office to the dugout” are “likely” to be announced. There’s no firm indication yet that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, general manager Mike Girsch or manager Oli Marmol are on the chopping block, but there’s been ample speculation regarding Mozeliak’s future recently. He’s signed through the 2025 season. Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch opines that it’s time for chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. to make a change and move on from Mozeliak — the longest-tenured baseball ops leader in the NL (and second-longest in the sport, behind Yankees GM Brian Cashman).

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested last week that former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, whom the Cardinals hired as a senior adviser this past offseason, would have a larger role in baseball operations next year and could even overtake the top spot on the baseball operations hierarchy. Hochman suggests a similar outcome, calling Bloom a natural successor to Mozeliak.

As rumblings of changes up the ladder mount, there are players in the clubhouse hoping for some continuity. Right-hander Kyle Gibson tells the Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold that he hopes the Cardinals pick up his $12MM option for the 2025 season rather than pay the $1MM buyout and send him back to free agency. Gibson could command similar or perhaps even greater earnings on the open market after a season in which he’s pitched 165 2/3 innings of 4.13 ERA ball with a 20.8% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.8% grounder rate. However, Gibson is a Missouri native who starred for the University of Missouri in college and makes his offseason home in the St. Louis area.

Goold lays out that Gibson has not only performed well on the field but taken up a key leadership role in the clubhouse. He’s rarely missed bullpen sessions for young pitchers and has been a mentor for Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante and others. The catching corps has cited Gibson as a huge part of the team’s game-planning, even for games he’s not pitching. Readers can check out Goold’s piece for a fascinating self-analysis from Gibson on a mistake he made to Jose Ramirez in his most recent appearance. The breakdown makes it easy to quickly glean the thoughtful approach Gibson takes to his opponents and see how his experience could benefit those around him — particularly younger pitchers and catchers.

The Cardinals have Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Erick Fedde all signed through next season. Gibson and fellow righty Lance Lynn have 2025 club options on their contracts. Of the two, Gibson seems likelier to have his option exercised. Keeping Gray, Mikolas, Gibson, Fedde and Matz would give the Cards a veteran quintet on which to lean. In-house names like Pallante, Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews and Sem Robberse (among others) would be waiting in the wings should injuries or continued struggles from Mikolas and/or Matz prompt changes.

Like Gibson, righty Andrew Kittredge is open to a St. Louis reunion. The 34-year-old setup man is a pure free agent and doesn’t have an option on his contract, but he tells Goold he would “definitely” be interested in coming back. Though the team’s results haven’t been what the clubhouse hoped, it’s not for any lack of effort in the clubhouse, Kittredge says: “I don’t have anything negative to say about any player in this clubhouse. Everyone comes to play every day, and I like to be a part of teams like that.”

The Cards reportedly plan to approach Kittredge about a re-signing him. The right-hander set a Cardinals franchise record when he secured his 36th hold of the season recently. He’s posted a terrific 2.93 ERA with sharp strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates of 23.2%, 7.2% and 44.4%, respectively. He’s not throwing quite as hard as he did prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery with the Rays, but Kittredge’s 94.7 mph average sinker still has plenty of life, even if it’s down nearly a mile per hour from peak levels.

Cardinals Place Sonny Gray On 15-Day Injured List

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Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray’s first season with the Cardinals has come to a close, as the club has placed him on the 15-day injured list due to flexor tendonitis in his right forearm. Right-hander Kyle Leahy was recalled to replace Gray on the big league roster, and rookie Michael McGreevy is currently slated to take Gray’s place in the rotation as noted by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat.

Gray, 34, joined the Cardinals after signing a three-year, $75MM deal with the club on the heels of a dominant 2023 season that saw him post an MLB-best 2.83 FIP as a member of the Twins and finish second in AL Cy Young award voting to Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Gray’s start to the season was slightly delayed by injury but he started strong overall, with a 2.60 ERA and 2.84 FIP in his first nine starts with the club that made it look as though Gray might be able to deliver more of the dominance that he flashed in Minnesota with St. Louis this year.

The results have left something to be desired for Gray ever since the calendar flipped to June, however, as he posted a 4.92 ERA in a 15-start stretch from early June to late August before managing to finish the season strong with a 2.55 ERA and 1.91 FIP in his final four starts of the year. That leaves him with a relatively pedestrian 3.84 ERA overall in 166 1/3 innings of work, though the underlying metrics suggest he’s been a good bit better than that. After all, even that aforementioned stretch of 15 starts where Gray struggled saw him post a solid enough 3.63 FIP while striking out an excellent 29.3% of his opponents. Looking at his full season stats, he’ll end the year with a 3.13 FIP that ranks seventh-best in the majors, a 30.3% strikeout rate that’s tied with Tarik Skubal for the second-best figure in the big leagues behind likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale, and 3.8 fWAR that’s good for seventh-most among NL pitchers this year.

Unfortunately, those promising peripheral numbers neither translated to elite production on the field for Gray nor wins for a Cardinals club that was recently eliminated from playoff contention and has a 77-77 record with eight games left to go in the regular season. With that being said, those strong underlying numbers do provide reason for optimism that better days ought to be ahead for the veteran in the future. That’s good news for fans in St. Louis, as Gray is sure to be a key fixture of the club’s starting five next year. As noted by Jones, Gray underwent an MRI recently that came back clean and would likely still be pitching if the Cardinals remained in the playoff hunt. That makes it seem unlikely that Gray’s current ailment will have any sort of impact on him when camp opens up for Spring Training next year.

Looking ahead to 2025, Gray figures to anchor a rotation that seems likely to include deadline addition Erick Fedde, veteran innings eater Miles Mikolas, and youngster Andre Pallante but still features some uncertainty due to the fact that the club holds team options on the services of both Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn for next year. While both veterans have been perfectly serviceable back-end arms for the Cardinals this year, with the aforementioned quartet and Steven Matz all expected to return in 2025 it would hardly be a shock to see the club decline the options of one or both players in search of an upgrade to either the rotation or lineup elsewhere on the market.

As for replacing Gray in the short term, Leahy returns to the club’s roster as a multi-inning relief option after posting a 4.02 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 47 innings of work earlier this year. Meanwhile, McGreevy made his big league debut in a spot start back in July and impressed with seven innings of one-run ball and currently sports a 0.90 ERA in ten innings at the big league level along with a 4.02 ERA in 27 starts at Triple-A this year.

Matt Carpenter Open To Playing In 2025

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Veteran Matt Carpenter is winding down his 14th big league season but isn’t necessarily going to stop there. He tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he’s willing to return next year, even if it’s in the part-time role he’s had in 2024.

“I’m certainly open to play,” Carpenter said. “I like this role. I think considering the role, I feel like I’ve done well in it, and I also think, more importantly, I understand the bigger picture of it. I’d be open to doing it again.”

Carpenter signed a one-year deal with the Cards for 2024, his age-38 season. He began the winter under contract to the Padres, triggering a $5.5MM player option. San Diego traded him to Atlanta alongside Ray Kerr and some cash considerations for minor league outfielder Drew Campbell, but mostly to get rid of some money. Atlanta took on a chunk of that salary to get Kerr in that deal, quickly releasing Carpenter, which allowed the Cards to sign him for the league minimum.

Around a couple of injured list stints, one for a right oblique strain and the other for a lower back strain, Carpenter has stepped to the plate 146 times in 54 appearances this year. He has struck out 31.5% of the time and drawn walks at a 9.6% clip. That walk rate is above league average but both of those rates are career worsts for Carpenter personally. He has hit four home runs and his .236/.317/.378 batting line leads to a 97 wRC+, indicating he has been just a bit below league average overall.

Most of that has come as a designated hitter or pinch hitter. His defensive contributions for the year have consisted of eight innings at first base, one at second base and three at third. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference grade his season just barely below replacement level.

Strictly looking at the on-field performance, there may not be a ton of interest there. He was a strong player for the Cardinals from 2012 to 2018 but hasn’t been above average at the plate for a lengthy stretch since then. After worsening struggles from 2019 to 2021, he tried revamping his swing and re-emerged with a vengeance in 2022. He put up a monster line of .305/.412/.727 with the Yankees that year, though in only 47 games. He didn’t get his shot until a couple of months into the season and then had his comeback shortened by injury. The Padres believed in the bounceback enough to give him a two-year deal, including the aforementioned player option, but the first year didn’t go well and they sent him packing after that.

Carpenter can perhaps bring other elements to the table in a less tangible fashion, serving as a mentor and clubhouse leader. But given his numbers, he may be limited to minor league offers or perhaps a veteran sage role on a rebuilding club.

“Going to cross that bridge when we get there,” Carpenter said to Goold of his offseason market. “I’m open to playing. We’ll see what that looks like. I’m open to doing this role again. I’m open to just a lot of things. We’ll see.”

Poll: Paul Goldschmidt And The Qualifying Offer

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Heading into the 2024 season, the main question surrounding Paul Goldschmidt was one of whether the Cardinals would be able to get an extension done. Interest in a new contract for Goldschmidt was reported as far back as December, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said in January that extension talks could be tabled until early in the season. At the time, Goldschmidt was fresh off a .268/.363/.447 batting line in 154 games. That didn’t come close to his 2022 NL MVP season (.317/.404/.578, 35 homers) — but it was still well north of the league average and made Goldschmidt one of the more productive first basemen in the game.

Fast forward a few months, and the narrative has changed dramatically. Goldschmidt got out to the worst start of his career and seemed wholly unable to recover. He posted below-average offensive numbers in April, May and June, slashing a .225/.294/.361 in 349 plate appearances over that stretch. By measure of wRC+, the perennially excellent Goldschmidt had been 15% worse than an average hitter at the plate.

Even if one looked at the dip from his 2022 production to his 2023 output as the potential beginning of a decline, a drop-off of this magnitude was nonetheless a genuine surprise. Goldschmidt hadn’t simply had some poor luck on balls in play; his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 28.7%. His 8.3% walk rate was nowhere near his career mark. Goldschmidt was still hitting the ball hard, but his contact was less frequent and much of that hard contact was coming in the form of hard grounders rather than well-struck liners and flies. Goldschmidt’s 43% ground-ball rate in the season’s first three months was his highest since 2017.

Since that point, things have begun to turn around. Goldschmidt had a modestly productive showing in July (107 wRC+) and has seen his bat truly take off from August onward. He’s hitting .275/.315/.483 since the calendar flipped to July — including a .286/.338/.493 slash since Aug. 1. Again, this isn’t a simple change in fortune on balls in play. Goldschmidt’s 28% strikeout rate from the season’s first three months is down to 23.5% since July 1 — and just 21% since Aug. 1.

Despite that substantial dip in strikeouts, Goldschmidt hasn’t necessarily become more selective at the plate. He’s still not walking nearly as often as he used to — 5.5% since July 1 — nor is he chasing off the plate any less than he did in the season’s first three months. What he has done, however, is become much more aggressive on pitches within the strike zone. Goldschmidt’s typically patient approach led him to swing at just 61.4% of pitches in the strike zone from Opening Day through the end of June. Since then, he’s offered at 68.1% of such pitches. His overall swing rate through three months was at 46.2%, but he’s up to 49.4% in the three months since.

Goldschmidt has had 50 plate appearances end on one pitch this season. He’s hitting .347 and slugging .694 on those pitches. Of those 50, 26 came in the season’s first three months. About 7.4% of his plate appearances lasted one pitch. Since July 1, nearly 10% of his plate appearances have been of the one-pitch variety. It’s not a huge difference, but it lends credence to the fact that Goldschmidt has been more aggressive and been better off for it.

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Goldschmidt (pardon the cliche). His first half looked like that of a player on the decline — mounting strikeouts, lesser contact, and an across-the-board deterioration in his results. The past two-plus months, however, tell another story. Goldschmidt may not be the MVP-level hitter he was just two seasons ago, but he’s been clearly above-average since July, including an outrageous .394/.429/.636 slash in his past 70 plate appearances. His walks are down and may not recover if he maintains his more aggressive approach, but he’s hitting for average and power alike. If Goldschmidt had flipped his two halves, starting this hot and then fading toward league-average, his down season likely wouldn’t have garnered much attention.

As it stands, league-average is precisely where Goldschmidt is at. His .246/.303/.414 batting line comes out to an even 100 wRC+. His OPS+ (98) is only 2% worse than average. An average-hitting first baseman isn’t generally a QO candidate, but if the Cardinals believe Goldschmidt can sustain his late surge, then there’s good reason to make an offer. Even if he accepts, a $21.2MM salary for a player whom they believe can continue in the vicinity of a .275/.315/.483 pace would be defensible. And if he walks, the Cards would of course be entitled to draft compensation. On the flip side, if Goldschmidt were to accept and revert to his first-half form, it’d be a clear misstep that sets the franchise back in 2025 as they look to return to contending.

It all comes down to how much the Cardinals believe in Goldschmidt’s second-half renaissance and how much they’re willing to risk in the name of bolstering their 2025 draft pool. Six months ago, Goldschmidt would’ve seemed like a no-brainer QO recipient. Three months ago, the decision would’ve seemed like a no-brainer — for the opposite reason. Now, the Cardinals will fall somewhere in the middle. Let’s open this up for a poll:

Matt Adams Announces Retirement

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Veteran first baseman Matt Adams has announced his retirement from baseball. The 36-year-old penned a lengthy farewell to the sport he loves and thanked his teammates, coaches, clubhouse staff, fans and family in a statement you can read in full on Adams’ social media accounts (X link and Instagram link). Adams will sign a ceremonial one-day contract with the Cardinals next week, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, giving him the opportunity to retire as a member of the organization that first selected him in the 23rd round of the 2009 draft.

The 6’3″, 260-pound Adams made his big league debut just three seasons after being drafted, getting a May/June look during his age-23 season and hitting .244/.286/.384 in his first taste of the majors. By 2013, he’d establish himself as a fixture in the Cardinals’ lineup, hitting .284/.335/.503 and popping 17 homers in just 319 plate appearances. “Big City” went on to produce solid offense in the middle of the order from 2013-17, hitting a combined .272/.317/.473 with 73 homers, 97 doubles and six triples in 1762 plate appearances from ’13-’17.

After moving Matt Carpenter to first base for the 2017 season, the Cardinals no longer had regular at-bats for Adams at first base, however. An early-season injury to Freddie Freeman in Atlanta created an opportunity, and the Cardinals flipped Adams to the Braves in exchange for then-prospect Juan Yepez. Adams caught fire in Atlanta, hitting so well early in his time there that Freeman even briefly moved across the diamond upon his return from the IL and played 16 games at third base as a means of keeping both lefty sluggers in the lineup (prior to the NL’s implementation of the designated hitter).

Adams hit free agency that offseason and signed with the Nationals on a one-year deal. He hit well as the Nats’ primary first baseman (.257/.332/.510), and when the Nats wound up embarking on a late-August sell-off that year, Adams found himself on the waiver wire, where he was claimed — by the Cardinals. His return to St. Louis didn’t go as well as his original stint, however. He slashed just .158/.200/.333 in 60 plate appearances over the season’s final six weeks.

Adams became a free agent again at season’s end, and almost one year to the date of his original deal with the Nationals, he re-signed in Washington on another one-year contract in D.C. It was a fateful return, as although Adams hit only .226 with a .276 on-base percentage, he provided a key source of lefty power and big bat off the bench in what wound up being the Nationals’ Cinderella season. Adams belted 20 homers for manager Davey Martinez’s club as the Nats embarked on a near-unfathomable rebound from a 19-31 start to win the 2019 World Series.

That 2019 season marked the last in which Adams saw even semi-regular action in the majors. He returned to Atlanta for a brief spell in 2020, appearing in 16 games but struggling at the plate. He had a similarly brief run with the Rockies in 2021, logging 22 games and again finding it difficult to recapture his form. Adams spent the 2022 season with the Kansas City Monarchs of the independent American Association and returned to the Nationals organization in 2023, though he spent the entire year with their Triple-A club. He’s been playing with the Mexican League’s Toros de Tijuana this season (.272/.309/.491, 13 homers) but will now formally call it a career just two weeks after turning 36.

Adams doesn’t sound like someone who plans to be away from baseball for long. In his retirement statement, he expressed an eagerness to travel down a new path within the game.

“I’m excited to seek out opportunities in coaching, where I can continue to contribute to the sport I love,” wrote Adams. “Over the past few years, I’ve had the privilege of taking on a mentoring role as a veteran player. Through that experience, I’ve found a new way to love the game — one that allows me to share my knowledge and help guide the next generation of athletes. That’s the direction I’m eager to explore. … I look forward to the chance to keep competing and winning, this time from a different vantage point.”

With his playing days now formally in the rearview mirror, Adams will turn the page on a career that saw him bat .258/.306/.463 in 2614 major league plate appearances. Along the way, he totaled 624 hits, including 118 home runs, 130 doubles and six triples. Adams scored 297 runs in his career, plated 399 of them, and participated in three different postseasons (2013, 2014 and that 2019 World Series season). He suited up for four major league teams and earned nearly $15MM in salary while accruing more than eight years of big league service. Best wishes to Matt as he takes the next step in his baseball journey.

Cardinals Interested In Re-Signing Andrew Kittredge

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Much of the focus on the Cardinals’ slate of offseason moves was on the team’s rebuilding of its rotation. Signings of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have all paid off to varying extents. One of the team’s less-heralded moves, however, has proven equally important for the 2024 season. The trade of infielder/outfielder Richie Palacios to the Rays in exchange for reliever Andrew Kittredge has been a win-win swap. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a .350 OBP and quality defense at multiple positions from Palacios. The Cards have benefited from one of the most consistent setup men in the National League. And while Kittredge is a free agent at season’s end, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team expects to talk to Kittredge about a new contract in the near future.

Kittredge, 34, is in his first full season back from 2022 Tommy John surgery but has shown little signs of rust following that arduous rehab. He pitched 11 2/3 innings for Tampa Bay late last season and has been one of the most heavily used relievers in baseball this season. His 66 appearances tie him for tenth in the sport, and his 63 relief innings are tied for 33rd among 173 qualified relievers.

Kittredge hasn’t simply provided volume, however. His 33 holds lead the National League and trail only Houston’s Bryan Abreu (35) for the MLB lead. He’s pitched to a 2.86 ERA, posting slightly better-than-average strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 7.5%, respectively. Opponents have kept the ball on the ground at a 44.5% clip against him — again, a bit better than league-average.

It’s fair to suggest that Kittredge could be in for some regression, particularly as he enters what’ll be his age-35 season. His rate stats are all sharp, but none are elite. He’s benefited from a .257 average on balls in play that’s 35 points shy of his career mark, and he hasn’t exactly been a soft-contact savant; Statcast measures Kittredge with worse-than-average marks in hard-hit rate (40.9%, 31st percentile), barrel rate (9.1%, 22nd percentile) and average exit velocity (89.5 mph, 32nd percentile).

That said, Kittredge has always gotten by with middle-of-the-pack exit velocity and hard-hit marks — though this year’s spike in barrel rate is uncharacteristic. This year’s opponents’ chase rate, contact rate (both in the zone and off the plate) and swinging-strike rate are each right in line with his career marks as well. Kittredge has lost about a mile per hour off both his sinker and slider relative to his peak showing in 2021, but that season will likely stand out as the best of his career. Even if there’s some regression in store, Kittredge looks fully capable of posting a mid-3.00s ERA with quality rate stats across the board. This version of him is still unequivocally a valuable, effective reliever.

Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker to look at recent precedent, there aren’t many multi-year deals for relievers beginning in their age-35 season or later — particularly non-closing relievers. Teams are increasingly wary to commit to players in their mid-to-late 30s, and relievers are of course notably volatile. Chris Martin’s two-year, $17.5MM deal with the Red Sox is the top deal for setup men in this age bracket over the past three years; his contract began in his age-37 season. Veterans like Collin McHugh (two years, $10MM with the Braves) and Ryan Brasier (two years, $9MM with the Dodgers) have also commanded multi-year pacts. Kittredge has a steadier track record than Brasier. He throws considerably harder than McHugh did at the time of his contract in Atlanta. A two-year deal between the McHugh and Martin figures could make sense for both parties, speculatively speaking.

If the Cardinals succeed in keeping Kittredge in St. Louis, they’ll keep a late-inning corps that’s been a strength together for the 2025 season. Closer Ryan Helsley is controllable through 2025. Fellow setup men JoJo Romero and Ryan Fernandez (a very nice Rule 5 find) are under club control through 2026 and 2029, respectively.

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