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Cardinals Notes: Gray, Thompson, O’Brien

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The Cardinals are still waiting for right-hander Sonny Gray to make his regular season debut with the club, after he suffered a right hamstring strain during the spring. His path back to the big leagues got muddied, literally, when this week’s weather prevented his ramp-up from going as planned.

Per John Denton of MLB.com, Gray was going to make a rehab start for Triple-A Memphis at Indianapolis today but the club changed plans due to the heavy rain in the forecast. Instead, the new plan is for a 50-pitch simulated game today in Springfield, Missouri, followed by a Triple-A start on April 9, which was around when he was hoping to be back with the big league club. But he’ll now be looking at a return on April 14, assuming a normal four-day rest period after his outing for the Redbirds.

When Gray is ready to return, he should slot into the rotation next to Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Steven Matz in the rotation. That will likely mean that left-hander Zack Thompson gets nudged out. Thompson started today’s game for the Cards and Denton noted that his velocity is way down, more than three ticks below his previous start. Whether that’s indicative of some kind of undiscovered injury remains to be seen.

If he’s healthy, Thompson has an option and can be sent to the minors when Gray gets back. He could also be moved to the bullpen to take over the long relief role currently held by Matthew Liberatore, as Liberatore also has an option and could be sent down for work in the Triple-A rotation.

Gray was signed to a three-year, $75MM deal in the offseason after posting a 2.79 earned run average with the Twins last year. He combined a 24.3% strikeout rate with a 7.3% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate, finishing second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting.

Elsewhere in Cardinal news, right-hander Riley O’Brien was placed on the 15-day injured list on the weekend due to a flexor strain. But earlier this week, Denton relayed that an MRI showed no structural damage.

O’Brien will still require a shutdown period before ramping back up, but that’s clearly a better alternative to requiring surgery and missing extended time. Acquired from the Mariners in November, O’Brien has just 3 1/3 innings of major league experience but had a 2.29 ERA in 55 Triple-A innings last year. His 13.6% walk rate was scary but he also struck out 37.7% of batters faced and got grounders on 57.1% of balls in play.

Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals Among Teams Scouting Roki Sasaki

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Eight MLB teams sent representatives to watch NPB ace Roki Sasaki’s latest start, according to articles from Sports Hochi and Yahoo Japan, as relayed by Dylan Hernández of The Los Angeles Times and Andy Martino of SNY, respectively. Among those teams were the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Cardinals.

Sasaki is just 22 years old and already one of the best pitchers in Japan. Over three NPB seasons, he has thrown 283 2/3 innings with 376 strikeouts and a 2.00 ERA. The ace made headlines last winter when he reportedly asked to be posted for MLB teams well ahead of the typical timeline – MLB does not allow players under 25 years old and with fewer than six professional seasons to sign anything more than a minor league contract. Ultimately, Sasaski re-signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines, temporarily putting a stop to any talk of his being posted. Still, he could make the same request this coming offseason. While he might be forfeiting a massive free agent payday if he is posted before his 25th birthday, he has made no secret of his desire to pitch in MLB.

It’s no surprise, then, that several MLB teams are showing interest in Sasaski. However, the two-time NPB All-Star might have already decided where he wants to pitch in 2025 and beyond. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, “several GMs” are under the impression that Sasaki “already has plans to sign with the Dodgers” during the 2024-25 offseason.

According to one general manager, “There’s no way he’s going anywhere else but the Dodgers. We all know it.” While that particular comment was spoken in no uncertain terms, it also sounds more like conjecture than insider knowledge. Indeed, this entire report may be more speculation on the part of the executives than anything else. After all, at least seven teams besides the Dodgers are actively scouting Sasaski, and they wouldn’t be doing so if they didn’t think they had a chance to secure his services in the future. Moreover, even if Sasaki truly does have his sights set on the Dodgers, the rest of the league will still have an opportunity to change his mind.

Cardinals Place Riley O’Brien On 15-Day IL Due To Flexor Strain

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The Cardinals placed right-hander Riley O’Brien on the 15-day injured list, as O’Brien is dealing with a flexor strain in his right forearm.  Left-hander John King was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding transaction.

The ominous-sounding nature of the injury suggests that O’Brien could be in danger of a season-threatening surgery.  Even if the strain can be managed with just rest and a normal rehab schedule rather than any kind of procedure, O’Brien is still likely looking at an absence of well beyond the 15-day minimum.  The righty has made one appearance this season, tossing an inning of relief in the Cardinals’ season-opening 7-1 loss to the Dodgers.

O’Brien has now made exactly one appearance in each of his three MLB seasons, counting his previous cups of coffee with the Reds in 2021 and Mariners in 2022.  An eighth-round pick for the Rays in the 2017 draft, O’Brien spent much of his minor league career as a starter before turning to full-time bullpen work in 2022.  With an ugly 7.03 ERA over 39 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2022, the transition wasn’t exactly smooth for O’Brien, yet he significantly turned things around with Seattle’s Triple-A affiliate last season.  The right-hander posted a 2.29 ERA, 57.1% grounder rate, and a 37.7% strikeout rate in 55 innings in Tacoma, and only a 13.6% walk rate marred that otherwise sterling performance.

The Mariners weren’t moved enough to give O’Brien any time on the active roster last year, and they ended up trading him to St. Louis in early November for just cash considerations.  A minuscule 0.90 ERA over 10 Spring Training innings helped O’Brien win a spot on the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, but it will likely be some time before he is able to return to the mound.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Quero, Cantillo

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The Cardinals have been hit hard by injuries in the early days of the 2024 season, but they have recently received some good news about several players.

Major offseason acquisition Sonny Gray suffered a right hamstring strain in spring training, robbing him of the necessary game action he needed to be ready for the regular season. The right-hander threw 36 pitches over three simulated innings today (per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat), and he will pitch for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds on Wednesday (per Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Jones adds that a return as soon as April 9 or 10 is a possibility.

Keynan Middleton, another significant free agent signing this winter, is not quite as close to returning, but Worthy notes that he will begin to work off a mound on Wednesday. He was shut down with a forearm strain in mid-March.

As for the position players, Jones mentions that Lars Nootbaar took eight live at-bats today and will take another four tomorrow. Manager Oliver Marmol will meet with the outfielder to decide if he needs a rehab stint at Triple-A before coming off the IL. Nootbaar is recovering from two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs.

Tommy Edman is dealing with wrist pain following offseason surgery. Worthy reports that he is set to undergo an MRI on Wednesday. The scan will show whether or not he is ready to start ramping up his swing. Finally, Worthy notes that Dylan Carlson received an injection to help combat pain in his left shoulder. The pain is a result of a sprained AC joint that he suffered during an outfield collision in one of the final games of spring training. Barring a setback, he should be ready to get back into game action before too long.

More news from around the NL and AL Central…

  • Brewers catching prospect Jeferson Quero is being evaluated for a right shoulder injury, GM Matt Arnold told reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The severity of the injury is currently unclear, although it’s certainly worrisome when a catcher known for his strong arm injures his throwing shoulder. Quero is only 21 years old and has yet to make his MLB debut. However, the highly-regarded catching prospect is one of three backstops on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster, along with William Contreras and Gary Sánchez. If his injury proves to be serious, the team’s catching depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Joey Cantillo, a left-handed pitcher in the Guardians organization, will miss eight to 10 weeks with a hamstring strain he suffered at the end of spring training, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Cantillo was unlikely to make the Guardians Opening Day roster, even if he had stayed healthy this spring. That said, he is already on the 40-man roster, and after 18 starts at Triple-A last season, he seemed like a good candidate to make his MLB debut at some point this year. That could still happen, but he’ll have to wait at least a couple of months to get that chance.

Cardinals Outright Jared Young

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March 29: Young cleared waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Memphis, the Cardinals announced. He’ll remain with the organization.

March 27: The Cardinals announced that infielder/outfielder Jared Young has been placed on outright waivers. That opens up a spot on their 40-man roster for outfielder Victor Scott II.

Young, 28, was claimed off waivers out of the division-rival Cubs organization back in November. A 15th-round pick in 2017, he’s logged big league time in each of the past two seasons with Chicago, albeit in limited fashion. He’s appeared in just 22 games and tallied 69 plate appearances, hitting .210/.290/.435 in his brief cups of coffee at the MLB level.

Those numbers don’t stand out, nor do the results from Young’s first two seasons at the Triple-A level, but he laid waste to opposing pitchers with Triple-A Iowa last season in his third run through that level. In 90 games and 376 plate appearances, Young turned in a stout .310/.417/.577 batting line with 21 homers, a huge 13.3% walk rate and a 22.3% strikeout rate. He collected only three hits in 45 plate appearances this spring, but last year’s upper-minors results are genuinely intriguing.

Young has spent notable time at first base, second base, third base and in both outfield corners on the defensive side of things. The bulk of that time has come at first base and in left field, but any team that places a claim or looks to swing a minor trade to pick him up would be adding a lefty bat with some decent versatility. Young has a pair of minor league options remaining as well, which could add to his appeal. The outright waiver process lasts 48 hours, so Young should know relatively soon whether he’ll head to another club’s 40-man roster or stick with the Cardinals and be assigned outright to Triple-A Memphis.

Dylan Carlson To Be Placed On Injured List; Cardinals To Select Victor Scott II

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Cardinals center fielder Dylan Carlson has been diagnosed with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder following a collision with right fielder Jordan Walker during yesterday’s Grapefruit League game, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced to reporters Tuesday (X link via Bob Nightengale of USA Today). He’ll open the season on the injured list. In his place, the Cardinals will select the contract of outfield prospect Victor Scott. He’ll open the season in center field.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Carlson’s absence will be measured in weeks, not months. As such, while the Cardinals will need to open a 40-man roster spot for Scott, placing Carlson on the 60-day IL seemingly won’t be a consideration when determining a corresponding move.

It’s an unfortunate blow for both Carlson and the Cardinals. The club came into camp with a planned outfield of Walker in right, Tommy Edman in center and Lars Nootbaar in left. Edman and Nootbaar are each going to start the season on the IL, Edman due to lingering soreness in his wrist after last year’s arthroscopic surgery, Nootbaar due to rib fractures suffered while attempting to make a catch.

That opened the door for Carlson, who was himself been frequently beset by injuries. After a breakout season in 2021, he missed time in 2022 due to a left hamstring strain and left ankle sprain, getting capped at 128 games. Last year, the ankle issues resurfaced and he only got into 76 games, eventually requiring surgery on that ankle.

He seemed to be in good form this spring, having hit .271/.340/.521. Just as he was about to open the season with a starting center field job, a brutally timed collision will send him to the injured list once again. He will hopefully be able to get healthy and rejoin the club in just a few weeks, but it’s also possible that Edman and/or Nootbaar will be back in the mix by that point.

Carlson’s misfortune will be an opportunity for Scott. He was a fifth-round draft pick of the Cards in 2022 and came into professional baseball with strong grades for his speed and defense but concerns about his bat.

Last year, he did a lot to quiet those concerns. He played 132 games between High-A and Double-A, hitting just nine home runs and walking at just a 7.4% rate, but he also limited his strikeouts to a 15.7% clip. His combined batting line of .303/.369/.425 translated to a wRC+ of 118. He also stole a tremendous 94 bases in 108 attempts on the year.

That vaulted Scott onto prospect lists coming into 2024. Both Baseball America and FanGraphs gave him the #83 slot on their respective top 100 lists coming into this year. Keith Law of The Athletic had him up at #55, though Scott didn’t crack the lists at either MLB Pipeline or ESPN.

He has been performing well this spring, hitting .316/.409/.368 and swiping four bags. The Cards probably didn’t plan on Scott jumping to the big leagues, since he was drafted less than two years ago and has no Triple-A experience thus far, but the string of injuries suffered by their other outfielders has forced their hand. Whether Scott sticks around or is merely a placeholder until the other guys get healthy will likely depend on his performance.

Despite some decent prospect hype, Scott won’t qualify for the prospect promotion incentive of the current collective bargaining agreement. It only applies to players that are on two of three top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. Since Scott only made the BA lists of those three, he doesn’t make the cut and won’t be able to provide the Cards with an extra draft pick via his placement in awards voting.

Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar To Begin Season On Injured List

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Cardinals manager Oli Marmol informed the club’s beat today, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that right-hander Sonny Gray will start the season on the 15-day injured list. Outfielder Lars Nootbaar will start the year on the 10-day IL. Left-hander Zack Thompson will get a rotation job to start the season with fellow lefty Matthew Liberatore will be in the bullpen.

Gray was diagnosed with a right hamstring strain a couple of weeks ago and has been working his way back to health since then. Gray says he’s been healthy for about 10 to 12 days, per John Denton of MLB.com, but hasn’t had enough game action to be ready for the start of the season. Gray tells Denton that he thinks he’ll be able to return about 10 or 11 games into the season, since Opening Day IL stints can be backdated by three days. The Cards have a scheduled off-day after their eighth game on the docket.

While it’s not ideal for a club’s ace and key offseason signee to begin the year on the shelf, it seems Gray is planning on a minimal stay that will only involve missing a couple of turns through the rotation. Gray posted a 2.79 earned run average for the Twins last year, finishing second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting.

As the Cards were looking to remake their rotation on the heels of a disaster season, Gray was the centerpiece of their offseason. While Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson were signed to serve as veteran innings eaters, Gray was given a three-year, $75MM deal to be at the front of the rotation for the foreseeable future.

Gray’s temporary absence will open a rotation spot for a little while behind Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Lynn and Gibson, with Thompson stepping into it. He has a 3.65 ERA in 101 career innings to this point in his career. His 23.4% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate are all fairly close to league average. This spring, he has a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings.

He has an option year remaining and could perhaps be sent to Triple-A when Gray is healthy, but Liberatore has an option as well. That could perhaps leave Thompson in a long relief role while Liberatore is the one to go to Triple-A, depending on how the Cards want to play it.

As for Nootbaar, he injured himself making a catch a couple of weeks back and was diagnosed with two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs. Since Tommy Edman is also going to start the season on the shelf, the Cards will be without two thirds of their planned starting outfield. Edman has still been experiencing pain in his surgically repaired right wrist.

Until Nootbaar and/or Edman are able to return, the Cards will likely roll with an outfield of Dylan Carlson in center while Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson take the corners. Utility player Brendan Donovan will be rotating through multiple infield and outfield positions. Prospect Victor Scott is still in camp but the club could prefer for him to have regular playing time in the minors as opposed to a big league bench job, which could lead to Michael Siani making the roster. There are also plenty of guys shaking loose from other clubs as roster cuts are made and veterans opt out of minor league deals.

Cardinals Notes: Gray, Middleton, Center Field

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New Cardinals ace Sonny Gray will throw in a “simulated pregame situation” on Sunday as he works his way back from a hamstring strain, according to John Denton of MLB.com. If all goes well, Gray could be ready to pitch in the team’s opening series against the Dodgers from March 28-31. However, manager Oliver Marmol told Denton that he has not yet decided on his Opening Day starter. That suggests the skipper isn’t optimistic about Gray’s availability for the very first game of the season.

The AL Cy Young runner-up in 2023, Gray signed a three-year, $75 million deal with St. Louis this winter to be the club’s new No. 1 starter. If he were at full strength right now, there would be no questions as to who would take the ball on Opening Day. Ultimately, however, the Cardinals won’t care who makes the symbolic game one start as long as Gray is healthy enough for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

In a much less positive injury update, right-hander Keynan Middleton will be shut down for 10 days as he nurses a forearm strain in his pitching arm (first reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). While Gray was the Cardinals’ biggest free agent acquisition for the rotation, Middleton was their biggest free agent acquisition for the bullpen. As Marmol told Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, this “will obviously set [Middleton] back several weeks,” essentially guaranteeing that he will start the year on the IL. According to Katie Woo of The Athletic, St. Louis plans to be without the righty for at least the first two weeks of the season.

Middleton was a strong middle reliever for the White Sox and Yankees last year, pitching 50 2/3 innings and putting up a 3.38 ERA. He has spent time on the IL in almost every season of his career, and 2023 was no exception; he missed most of September with a shoulder injury. Still, his 51 appearances were his most in a season since his 2017 rookie campaign. He also posted a career-high 30.2% strikeout rate (his previous career average was 22.1%), a career-high 56.6% groundball rate (his previous career average was 32.9%), and ranked among the top 10% of pitchers in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant. As a result, he finished with a 3.71 xERA, the lowest of his career.

While the Cardinals will hope Middleton doesn’t miss too much of the regular season, they will have to consider new bullpen options in his place. Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Andrew Kittredge, and JoJo Romero are locks for the Opening Day roster, while Andre Pallante is a safe bet as well. After those five names, Denton mentions Riley O’Brien, Nick Robertson, and Rule 5 draft selection Ryan Fernandez as contenders for the final three spots in the ’pen. Woo suggests the team has also considered a six-man rotation, which would mean running with a seven-man bullpen.

On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals have a decision to make in center field. As Tommy Edman continues to deal with pain in his wrist after offseason surgery, he will not be on the Opening Day roster. Dylan Carlson might have seemed like the obvious choice to fill in for Edman, but Marmol told Denton that the starting job in center field is still up for grabs. Carlson is a contender, but so are prospects Victor Scott II and Michael Siani.

Scott is the No. 83 prospect in baseball, according to both Baseball America and FanGraphs. He boasts incredible speed and plays phenomenal center field defense. Siani has a similar skill set but doesn’t have the same upside, which could end up helping his case to win the job; the Cardinals will be less inclined to rush Scott to the major leagues. Siani also has an edge because he is already on the 40-man roster. Carlson has better offensive abilities than either of the rookies, but he’s coming off a disappointing season at the plate. Moreover, while he is a capable defensive outfielder, both Scott and Siani have elite defensive potential. If Marmol isn’t convinced Carlson can figure things out at the dish, he might prefer to prioritize defense up the middle.

Cardinals Extend Manager Oli Marmol

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The Cardinals announced a two-year contract extension with manager Oli Marmol on Friday afternoon. The deal covers the 2025-26 seasons and ensured that Marmol, who had previously been slated to enter the final season of his current contract, will not operate as a lame duck.

Still just 37 years old, Marmol has managed to a 164-160 record since taking the reins following the team’s surprising dismissal of former skipper Mike Shildt. That includes a 93-69, division-winning performance in his debut managerial campaign, as well as a 71-91, last-place finish in 2023.

Marmol has spent his entire baseball career in the Cardinals organization. The Cards selected him with a sixth-round pick back in 2007, but Marmol’s minor league career lasted only four seasons before he moved into a coaching role within the system. He rose through the minor league ranks, coaching and managing at multiple stops, before being added to the Cardinals’ big league coaching staff as their first base coach for the 2017 campaign. Marmol held that job for two seasons before becoming Shildt’s bench coach for the next three years.

Marmol has, at times, drawn criticism for his handling of players. He and since-traded outfielder Tyler O’Neill clashed early last season when Marmol publicly called out O’Neill for not hustling home from third base. O’Neill took exception both to the substance of the comment as well as the public nature of the quip, suggesting that any conversation on the matter “could have been had in-house” and that the situation “should have been handled a little differently in my opinion.” Marmol also publicly stated early in the season that Willson Contreras would be removed from the starting catcher’s role — a decision that was reversed just a week later. O’Neill said in an appearance on Foul Territory earlier this year that he and Marmol grew to respect one another “at an arm’s length” and that his time with the club ended “on good terms” (video link).

Cardinals brass clearly doesn’t view last year’s disappointing results or the public spat with O’Neill as a reflection of Marmol’s ability (or lack thereof) to steer the team in the long term. He’ll now be locked up through the 2026 campaign, not only offering the team some stability but avoiding the lame-duck status that would have him routinely fielding questions and speculation about his job security throughout the upcoming season.

MLB.com’s John Denton was first to report that Marmol had signed an extension.

Tommy Edman To Open Season On Injured List

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After casting doubt on Tommy Edman’s availability for Opening Day earlier in camp, the Cardinals confirmed Thursday that their expected center fielder will open the season on the injured list. Manager Oli Marmol announced to the Cardinals beat that Edman will be shut down from hitting entirely for the next week, as it’s still causing him pain in his surgically repaired wrist (X link via Katie Woo of The Athletic). It’s still not clear whether left fielder Lars Nootbaar, who’s been slowed by a pair of fractures in his ribcage, will be cleared for Opening Day. Marmol added this morning that Nootbaar will be reevaluated Saturday (X link via John Denton of MLB.com). He’s been engaged in limited baseball activities for the past week.

Edman, 28, has primarily been a middle infielder in the past but handled himself well in 310 innings of center field work last season, drawing plus grades from metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. Defensive versatility has been one of his calling cards since he debuted in the majors, as he’s played every position other than catcher, first base and pitcher — drawing positive defensive marks everywhere he’s been.

With top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn on the cusp of MLB readiness, the Cardinals’ plan has been to move Edman to center field. Veteran Brandon Crawford was brought in as a veteran contingency plan at short in the event that Winn struggles, further cementing Edman’s role in the outfield, where he’d be flanked by Nootbaar and slugger Jordan Walker — in the event that all three are healthy.

That won’t be the case to begin the season. Edman, who missed time in 2023 with inflammation in his right wrist, continued to play through discomfort even upon returning from the injured list in 2023 and wound up undergoing arthroscopic surgery in October. The wrist injury could well have contributed to a decline in production at the plate; Edman hit .265/.324/.400 (106 wRC+) in 630 plate appearances in 2022 and got out to an even stronger start in April 2023 before his bat cratered. He was hitting .265/.339/.480 through early May but slipped to .244/.298/.378 over his final 418 trips to the plate. Edman finished out the season about eight percent worst than league-average, by measure of wRC+, with an overall batting line of .248/.307/.399.

With Edman now ruled out for Opening Day, it could be Dylan Carlson getting the nod in center field. The switch-hitter has been the subject of trade rumors for much of the past year, but the Cardinals never found an offer to their liking and will now at least temporarily turn center field back over to the former top prospect. Other outfield options on the 40-man roster include slugger Alec Burleson and defensive-minded Michael Siani.

It’s also possible that Victor Scott II, who stole a staggering 94 bases between High-A and Double-A last year, will crack the Opening Day roster. He’s had a big showing in camp, hitting .370/.469/.444 with four steals in 32 plate appearances, but Scott has also yet to play a single game above that Double-A level at which he topped out in 2023. Scott is regarded as a plus-plus defender in center field with 80-grade speed and negligible power. If he makes the club and Nootbaar joins Edman on the injured list, the Cards could put Scott’s glove in center and slide Carlson over to left field.

There are a fair number of moving parts in the St. Louis outfield mix, which has become typical for the organization over the years as they’ve struggled to retain any kind of long-term continuity in the group. Scott’s performance and Nootbaar’s health will be key storyline for the Cardinals in the final couple weeks of camp. Scott would need to be selected to the 40-man roster if he wins a spot on the Opening Day squad.

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