What Other Competitive Balance Round Draft Picks Could Be Traded This Winter?
The Competitive Balance Rounds are a pair of bonus rounds within the MLB draft, designed to give an extra pick to the game’s smaller-market teams. Teams that fall within either the bottom 10 in revenues and market size are eligible, and since 2017, the league determined the eligible teams based on a formula involving market score, revenues, and winning percentage. The first of the two Competitive Balance Rounds (CBR-A) comes right before the start of the second round, and CBR-B comes right after the second round. For the 2025 draft, a total of 15 teams will gain an extra pick, and their order within their respective round is determined by their win totals in the 2024 season.
With that explanation out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff — these picks can be traded. Specifically, a CBR selection can traded exactly once, and to any team in the league. Since these are the only MLB draft picks that are eligible to be dealt, it has become increasingly common to see teams move these extra selections as part of larger trade packages for established talent.
Three CBR picks in the 2024 draft changed hands due to trades, most prominently the Orioles’ inclusion of the 34th overall selection as part of the trade package sent to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes. This offseason has already seen three CBR picks in the 2025 draft dealt, and this post will explore the possibility that some other teams with CBR selections might move these picks to fill a more immediate need.
To cover the broad reason why any of these teams might not make a trade, it’s simply that draft picks are a very valuable asset unto themselves. Controllable young talent is particularly important for lower-revenue clubs that usually don’t splurge on expensive free agents or trade targets, which is part of the reasons why the Competitive Balance Rounds exist in the first place. Clubs are naturally pretty reluctant to move these CBR picks unless the right opportunity presents itself on the trade market.
(First, some notes on the draft order. The first 75 places in the 2025 draft have largely been established, since the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers all played for teams who were either luxury-tax payors in 2024, or aren’t revenue-sharing recipients. That means that if Nick Pivetta signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get their compensation pick after CBR-B. If Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman sign elsewhere, the Mets’ and Astros’ compensation picks will fall after the fourth round. Also, because the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all exceeded the second luxury-tax tier in 2024, their first-round picks were dropped by 10 spots in the draft order. This means that these three big spenders are all technically selecting within CBR-A, but obviously these aren’t official CBR picks. The only potential change would be if a team that signs Alonso, Bregman or Pivetta surrenders its second-round pick to do so.)
Onto the selections….
Brewers (33rd overall, CBR-A): Milwaukee is actually making consecutive picks in the draft, as they received a compensatory pick when Willy Adames rejected the team’s qualifying offer and signed with the Giants. Owning the 32nd overall pick might make the Brew Crew slightly more opening to trading the 33rd overall pick, perhaps to add pitching or to the infield in the wake of Adames’ departure. The Brewers could considering adding their CBR pick as a sweetener to try and move Rhys Hoskins‘ contract, yet it’s less likely that the team moves a valuable draft selection just as part of a salary dump.
Tigers (34th overall, CBR-A): The Tigers are considered to be one of the top suitors remaining for Alex Bregman, and signing a qualified free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft. Losing the 63rd overall pick means the Tigers almost surely wouldn’t also deal their CBR pick. If Bregman signed elsewhere, it’s more plausible that Detroit could consider trading its CBR pick for a big right-handed bat, but still probably on the unlikely side.
Mariners (35th overall, CBR-A): It was almost exactly a year ago that the M’s traded their CBR-B pick in the 2024 draft to the White Sox as part of the Gregory Santos deal. Santos’ injury-plagued first season in Seattle could make the Mariners more hesitant to an even higher CBR selection, yet this tradable pick might an asset the M’s can use within an overall difficult offseason market for the team. The Mariners are working with limited payroll space and most every team in baseball would prefer win-now help over prospects, seemingly leaving the M’s dealing with a lot of offers for their starting pitchers. With Seattle so reluctant to deal from its excellent rotation, offering up the 35th overall pick in trade talks might help get things moving.
Twins (36th overall, CBR-A): Speaking of front offices without much financial flexibility, Minnesota has had a very quiet offseason, with most of the headlines focused on a potential sale of the franchise rather than any significant roster moves. With reportedly around only $5MM or so in payroll space, the Twins might have to make some trades just to free up more money for more trade possibilities. Moving the CBR-A pick could be added to the Twins’ list of possibilities, but the team has enough potential trade candidates on the active roster that moving a big league-ready player is probably their preference over dealing away a draft pick.
Rays (37th overall, CBR-A): It might not come as much surprise that Tampa is the team that has acquired the most CBR picks over the last seven seasons. As you’ll see shortly, the Rays added to that total with the 42nd overall pick of the 2025 draft. Like with the Brewers and the Adames compensatory selection, having an “extra” pick in a sense might make the Rays more open to dealing this pick here, but that hasn’t been Tampa Bay’s style.
Reds (now Dodgers, 41st overall, CBR-A): This pick was already moved, as Cincinnati traded its selection along with outfield prospect Mike Sirota to Los Angeles in exchange for Gavin Lux.
Athletics (now Rays, 42nd overall, CBR-A): Another swapped pick, as the A’s moved the 42nd overall pick to Tampa Bay as part of the Jeffrey Springs trade. This move in particular highlights the speculative nature of this post, since going into the offseason, the Athletics seemingly wouldn’t have been on the radar as a team likely to trade its CBR pick.
Marlins (43th overall, CBR-A): There’s basically zero chance the Fish move a draft pick in the midst of their extensive rebuild.
Guardians (70th overall, CBR-B): The reigning AL Central champs have generally gone chalk with their CBR selections, not acquiring or trading any picks until this year. Adding an experienced outfielder or middle infielder for the 70th pick might work on paper, as the Guards are another team with two CBR selections and not much spending capacity to address its roster needs.
Orioles (71st overall, CBR-B): The idea for this post came about after writing another piece yesterday about how the O’s might be well-suited to trade this pick.
Diamondbacks (now Guardians, 72nd overall, CBR-B): Arizona sent the 72nd pick and Slade Cecconi to Cleveland to bring Josh Naylor to the desert.
Royals (73rd overall, CBR-B): Kansas City traded its CBR-A selection just hours before the 2024 draft began, moving the 39th overall pick and third base prospect Cayden Wallace to the Nationals for Hunter Harvey. While Harvey battled injuries and wasn’t much of a help in the Royals’ run to the ALDS, the fact that the team made such an aggressive midseason deal in pursuit of a playoff spot might hint that the front office is willing to make another bold swap involving this pick. Outfield help remains the Royals’ biggest need at this point in the winter.
Cardinals (74th overall, CBR-B): Outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken about wanting to leave a “clean slate” for new PBO Chaim Bloom. Between that and the Cardinals’ stated goal of refocusing on player development, it seems unlikely St. Louis would look to move its CBR pick.
Pirates (75th overall, CBR-B): The Bucs have had a relatively quiet offseason, with the team’s typical lack of big spending. In theory, trading a CBR pick might be a helpful way for the Pirates to add talent without breaking the budget, though Ben Cherington has yet to explore this tactic during his time as Pittsburgh’s general manager.
Rockies (76th overall, CBR-B): While the Rockies aren’t technically in an official rebuild, they’re not exactly building up after losing 204 games over the last two seasons. Using this pick to add another young player to the farm system seems far more likely than the Rox trading the pick away.
Cardinals Sign Zack Weiss To Minor League Deal
The Cardinals announced the signing of reliever Zack Weiss to a minor league deal. St. Louis also re-signed righty Victor Santos to a two-year minor league contract. Earlier this week, the Cardinals also announced a non-roster contract with catcher Yohel Pozo.
Weiss is the most notable of the trio. The 32-year-old has pitched in parts of three big league seasons. He tossed a career-high 14 innings between the Red Sox and Angels two seasons ago. Weiss landed with the Twins on a waiver claim last offseason but was outrighted off the 40-man roster without making an MLB appearance. He worked 25 innings with Minnesota’s Triple-A club after clearing waivers. While he posted a middling 5.40 earned run average, he struck out an above-average 26.7% of opposing hitters.
The righty has missed bats in his limited look against MLB competition as well. Weiss has fanned 28% of opponents through 27 1/3 career innings. That has come alongside a lofty 12.7% walk rate, though, contributing to a middling 4.61 ERA. Weiss has allowed 5.37 earned runs per nine in parts of six Triple-A campaigns.
Santos, 24, has yet to reach the major leagues. He was one of two minor league relievers whom the Cards acquired from the Red Sox in what turned out to be the lopsided Tyler O’Neill trade. Santos posted a 5.61 ERA across 77 innings with Triple-A Memphis last year. He’d been pitching in the Dominican Winter League this offseason but seemingly suffered an injury. The Cards announced that he is expected to miss the entire 2025 season, explaining the two-year term of his deal.
Pozo, 27, appeared in 21 MLB games for the Rangers four seasons ago. He hit .284 in 77 plate appearances. Pozo has spent the past two seasons as non-roster depth with the A’s. He hit .324/.335/.538 with 15 homers in an extremely hitter-friendly setting in Triple-A last season. The righty-swinging backstop has one of the most extreme approaches in professional baseball. Among the nearly 1100 minor league hitters who logged at least 300 plate appearances, Pozo had the lowest walk rate (1.9%). His 8.3% strikeout rate was fourth-lowest. No hitter put more balls into play overall.
Poll: Will The Cardinals Be Able To Trade Nolan Arenado?
One of the biggest storylines of the offseason has been the Cardinals’ to this point unsuccessful attempts at moving veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. As the club scales back its payroll and focuses on youth, both the Cardinals and Arenado himself have expressed a desire to move on this winter. In theory, moving an eight-time All-Star who’s just two seasons removed from being an MVP finalist should not be an especially difficult task, but a confluence of factors has made things very complicated for St. Louis’s front office.
The most obvious limiting factor at play is Arenado’s hefty contract. The infielder is due $74MM over the next three seasons, and even with the Rockies poised to pitch in $10MM as a condition of the trade that sent him to St. Louis in the first place, it’s hard to imagine a number of smaller or even mid-market clubs being able to stomach the majority of that salary. Even for clubs who can afford to pay Arenado, it would be understandable if there was some level of pause about committing that much money to a hitter coming off a .272/.325/.394 slash line that was essentially league average (102 wRC+). Arenado’s glove is still enough to make him a roughly three-win player even with his diminished offensive numbers but the division rival Cubs’ difficulties in finding a trade partner when looking to move Cody Bellinger this winter show how depressed the market can become for a three-win player who’s making more than they would fetch on the open market.
Things are further complicated by Arenado’s no-trade clause, which he’s appeared to be very comfortable wielding in order to direct the Cardinals’ negotiation efforts towards clubs he wants to join. Arenado blocked a trade to the Astros in mid-December despite previous belief that he would approve a trade to Houston, in large part because he wanted to see how the club would fortify the roster after trading away Kyle Tucker. That decision to wait and see what was next for Houston backfired, as they pivoted towards signing Christian Walker in a move that likely closed the door on Arenado joining the Astros.
Since the deal with the Astros fell through, the market for Arenado’s services has been exceptionally quiet, with the Cardinals beginning to entertain the possibility that Arenado might be in camp for the start of Spring Training or even still be in the club’s starting lineup on Opening Day. The Yankees reportedly tried to convince the Cardinals to do a swap that would’ve sent Arenado to the Bronx and right-hander Marcus Stroman to the St. Louis, but the Cardinals dismissed that offer without even presenting it to Arenado due to a lack of interest in adding Stroman to the fold. It’s hardly a surprise that they wouldn’t want to take on Stroman and is $18.5MM salary for 2025, but that decision only serves to highlight the financial difficulties the Cardinals face in attempting to move their third baseman.
Even as a trade of Arenado has become less likely as the calendar has flipped to 2025, there are at least some reasons for optimism. Arenado has reportedly become more open-minded about what clubs he would approve a trade to in recent weeks, which could theoretically inspire renewed efforts from clubs like the Mariners, Royals, and Tigers who have some level of interest in him but initially believed that Arenado would block any trade they worked out with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have indicated that they wouldn’t necessarily need to cut payroll elsewhere if Arenado remains with the club in 2025. It’s at least theoretically possible that’s simply a negotiation tactic, but if the Cardinals are truly not operating under a mandate to cut payroll to a specific level, then perhaps they’ll be more willing to chip in cash to help pay down Arenado’s salary or accept another underwater contract as part of the return.
One obvious catalyst that could spur Arenado talks back to the forefront of the hot stove would be Alex Bregman finding a new home in free agency. Bregman entered the winter ranked as the #3 free agent overall and the top available infielder according to MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, but he’s found a relatively quiet market to his point in the winter. The Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, and Cubs are all known to be involved in Bregman’s market to this point on at least some level. While trading Arenado to a division rival like the Cubs is nearly impossible to imagine, the Astros have already moved on, and Toronto may not be competitive enough to satisfy the veteran. The interest is mutual in at least the case of the Red Sox, who currently figure to start Arenado’s longtime Rockies teammate Trevor Story at shortstop on a regular basis this year. If Bregman were to come to a decision, and especially one that saw him end up in Houston, Chicago, or Toronto, it’s easy to imagine Arenado’s market picking up more significantly.
How do MLBTR readers think things will play out? Will Arenado be in another uniform before Opening Day? And if so, will a deal get done before he’s scheduled to report to the Cardinals for Spring Training on February 17? Have your say in the poll below:
Will The Cardinals Trade Arenado This Offseason?
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No, he'll be a Cardinal on Opening Day 2025. 64% (5,836)
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Yes, but he'll be traded after camp begins on February 17. 18% (1,642)
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Yes, and he'll be traded before Spring Training. 18% (1,610)
Total votes: 9,088
Cardinals Reluctant To Make Long-Term Commitments This Winter
The Cardinals have been among the league’s quietest teams this winter as they’ve to this point failed in their attempts to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado despite both sides preferring he play elsewhere in 2025. That difficulty in trading Arenado won’t force other cost-cutting moves according to club brass, but it does seem to have forced them to take a passive approach to the offseason with limited budget space available until and unless Arenado or another significant salary is traded. Recent comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, as reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, have further illuminated the club’s goals this winter.
During last weekend’s Winter Warmup fan event, Mozeliak told reporters that his goal for the winter has been to create a “clean slate” for incoming president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, who will replace him at the head of baseball operations when Mozeliak’s contract expires after the 2025 season. That desire to offer Bloom maximum flexibility as he takes over baseball operations has seemingly informed the club’s attempts to move Arenado. As Goold notes, Arenado is one of just three players who have a guaranteed contract in place beyond the 2025 season. The other two veterans, slugger Willson Contreras and right-hander Sonny Gray, both declined to waive their no-trade clauses earlier this winter and plan to stick in St. Louis going forward.
Aside from attempting to shed long-term commitments where possible, Goold adds that the Cardinals appear similarly reluctant to make new ones this winter. While the club is reportedly in the market for a late-inning reliever to replace Andrew Kittredge, it appears they club is hoping to avoid a longer-term agreement with a bullpen arm. That shouldn’t be too much of an obstacle given that the majority of the winter’s top relievers are already off the market and most veteran leverage relievers still available such as David Robertson, Kenley Jansen, and Tommy Kahnle are at an age where the vast majority of players are already limited to one-year offers on the open market. Filling the club’s reported desire for a right-handed bench bat who can complement a heavily left-handed lineup should be similarly easy to do on a one-year deal, as multi-year deals for projected bench players are few and far between.
Given the nature of the club’s external needs this winter, Mozeliak’s preference to avoid longer-term commitments this offseason appears likely to have more of an impact on the club’s approach to extensions. Closer Ryan Helsley, a free agent after the 2025 season, spoke candidly last weekend about the lack of extension talks between his camp and the Cardinals to this point. Meanwhile, reporting earlier this month suggested that the Cardinals were discussing a multi-year extension with utility man Brendan Donovan but no deal ultimately came together. Goold sheds some light on that situation, writing that the Cardinals have previously expressed interest in a multi-year deal with Donovan but did not “aggressively pursue” long-term deals with either him or any of the club’s other arbitration-eligible players this winter.
With one president of baseball operations finishing out the final year of his contract and his successor already both in the organization and announced as the future head of baseball ops, the Cardinals find themselves in an unusual position when it comes to committing to longer-term contracts even in the case of their own players. When asked about the possibility of extensions this offseason, Mozeliak indicated to Goold that the club remains open to conversation this spring but that Bloom would be involved in any negotiations given that he would be the person inheriting those longer-term commitments. Given that two top decision-makers would be involved in any negotiations this winter, it’s easy to imagine both sides preferring to table any extension talks until next year for players under team control beyond the 2025 season. At that point, Bloom will be fully in charge of baseball operations and have another year of direct evaluation under his belt with which he can make decisions.
Speculatively speaking, the Cardinals’ desire to provide Bloom with as much flexibility as possible when he takes over baseball operations after the 2025 season may also influence their decision to resist the idea of trading players who aren’t veterans on long-term, guaranteed deals. By keeping players with a handful of years of team control remaining like Donovan and Lars Nootbaar in the fold for 2025, Mozeliak offers Bloom the opportunity to decide whether or not the club should entertain an extension or trade for those players next winter.
Even rebuffing interest from rival clubs in players like Helsley and Erick Fedde could be a decision made in order to maximize flexibility when Bloom takes over, offering him the opportunity to extend the Qualifying Offer to either player if they turn in a sufficiently strong performance in 2025. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed the Cardinals’ “half-measure” offseason in an exclusive article for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers earlier this month, and the club’s apparent goal of maximizing the options at Bloom’s disposal when he takes over next winter could be an explanation for their apparent lack of urgency.
DeWitt: Cardinals Would Not Need To Cut Spending Elsewhere If No Arenado Trade
Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. spoke with reporters on Monday afternoon to conclude the organization’s Winter Warm-Up weekend. Unsurprisingly, he touched on the team’s biggest offseason storyline: the Nolan Arenado trade discussions.
Most notably, DeWitt said that the team wasn’t motivated to cut payroll in another area if they can’t line up an Arenado deal. “No, I don’t think so,” he replied when asked if a failure to trade the third baseman meant they needed to slash spending elsewhere (link via Katie Woo of The Athletic). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak made similar comments over the weekend, suggesting that ownership was supporting a higher payroll than the front office initially expected “because we haven’t been able to accomplish what we thought we would by now (on the trade market).”
Much of that is due to the no-trade rights of the Cards’ most expensive players. Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray each indicated they preferred to stay in St. Louis rather than waive their no-trade clauses. Arenado was more open to a trade in theory, though he nixed a deal to the Astros. That confirmed he’d be particular about his next destination if he were to move.
The Cardinals are on the hook for $64MM of the $74MM owed to Arenado over the next three seasons. The Rockies are responsible for $5MM annually over the next two years. A combined $12MM in salary over the next two seasons is deferred, reducing the Cardinals’ portion of the contract’s remaining net present value to around $60MM.
St. Louis has primarily focused on salary relief. The Astros were reportedly set to assume at least $45MM of the remaining money had Arenado not vetoed the trade. With Houston quickly moving on, talks have quieted over the past month. Mozeliak made clear over the weekend that the Cardinals are still trying to line up a trade that makes sense for everyone involved. That has been more challenging than the organization anticipated.
Nevertheless, there’s still a chance for a late-offseason deal. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that there are multiple teams that would be open to circling back on Arenado if the Cardinals are open to paying down a bigger portion of the contract. It remains to be seen whether St. Louis will eventually be willing to do that, but they’re generally downplaying the need to make trades to cut spending at this point. There’s also the matter of free agency delaying the trade market. Alex Bregman remains unsigned and there’s surely some overlap between the teams involved on the two players.
Goold adds that some teams have called the Cardinals to see whether they can talk Gray off his opposition to waiving the no-trade clause. There’s nothing to suggest the righty is reconsidering that stance, though there’s no harm for other teams in trying to change his mind. Gray is owed $65MM over the next two seasons on his backloaded three-year free agent deal. He turned in a 3.84 ERA over 28 starts during his first season with St. Louis.
Cardinals Notes: Payroll, Rotation, Liberatore
The Cardinals are facing a major obstacle as they attempt to retool their roster towards a younger (and cheaper) product for the 2025 campaign: they’ve been unsuccessful to this point in their attempts to move on from veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’s against that backdrop that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak revealed yesterday (as reported by Katie Woo of The Athletic) that the club’s payroll situation may not be quite as dire as it seemed earlier this winter.
“(Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr.) is giving me a little bit of flexibility because we haven’t been able to accomplish what we thought we would by now,” Mozeliak said, as relayed by Woo. “He’s been very understanding about what that might look like.”
Mozeliak went on to describe moving a different significant salary like that of left-hander Steven Matz or righty Erick Fedde as not something the club would have to do if they’re unable to deal Arenado. While he acknowledged that making such a deal would be “helpful” from a payroll perspective, he also emphasized that he was not interested in making a deal “for the sake of just trying to get to a number.”
That the Cardinals’ front office won’t necessarily be forced to slash payroll in other areas of the roster if they’re unable to move on from Arenado and his salary is surely a relief for fans in St. Louis who are hoping to see the team compete in 2025. RosterResource currently projects the club for a $148MM payroll in 2025, which represents a $35MM haircut relative to the club’s 2024 payroll. Moving most of Arenado’s contract, which calls for the Cardinals to pay him $27MM in 2025, would come close to doubling the gap between the 2024 and ’25 payrolls. That would surely provide the club with the room below even their lowered payroll capacity to add talent to the bullpen and bring in a right-handed bat who can help balance a lineup that figures to revolve around Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, and Alec Burleson in 2025.
With that said, it seems as though Mozeliak is not interested in dealing away salary from his rotation in order to make those upgrades to other parts of the roster happen at this point. When he spoke at the Cardinals’ Winter Warmup fan event yesterday, Mozeliak made clear that he values the depth the club currently has in the rotation. With that being said, St. Louis has reportedly expressed some level of interest in reuniting with veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson throughout the winter, and it’s at least plausible to imagine a scenario where the club manages to trade away Matz or Fedde before turning around and re-signing Gibson for a lower salary than that of the starter they dealt. That could create some additional room in the payroll to sign a reliever or bench bat even in the event the club is unable to trade Arenado.
If the Cardinals do end up dealing from their rotation mix this winter, there’s one player in the organization in particular who could be poised to seize on that opportunity: southpaw Matthew Liberatore. A former top prospect who the Cardinals traded for in the deal that sent Randy Arozarena to the Rays, the lefty was mostly used as a reliever in 2024. While he made six starts for the Cardinals in the majors last year, only one of those outings saw the southpaw finish the fourth inning. That’s not stopping Liberatore from stretching back out in 2025, however, as John Denton of MLB.com relayed this afternoon that the lefty plans to work towards starting in Spring Training and throughout the 2025 season.
As Denton notes, it’s hard to imagine Liberatore finding success in the rotation over the long-term without substantial improvement against right-handed hitters, as he’s been torched to the tune of a .292/.368/.510 slash line throughout his career when pitching without the platoon advantage. That held true in 2024 as well, as Liberatore surrendered an ugly 6.16 ERA with a 5.22 FIP against right-handed batters this past season while limiting lefties to a 1.98 ERA and 2.59 FIP. If the lefty can sort his platoon issues out, however, he could be an option worth considering for the club’s rotation mix alongside right-hander Michael McGreevy in the event that the club deals from its rotation without bringing in Gibson or another veteran arm.
No Extension Talks Between Cardinals, Ryan Helsley
Right-hander Ryan Helsley spoke to reporters about his future with the Cardinals during the club’s Winter Warmup fan event this weekend. As relayed by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Helsley indicated that he was actually under the impression he’d be getting traded this winter when the offseason began. The righty added that when his camp heard from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about six weeks after the season ended and was told the Cardinals plan to hold onto him this winter, he initially believed the call was to inform him of a trade.
Part of Helsley’s belief that he was ticketed for a trade this winter is based on the fact that there’s “never been any talk about extensions” between his camp and the Cardinals, he indicated. As noted by Jones, Helsley made clear that he would love to stay in St. Louis beyond the end of his time under team control but called negotiations a “two-way street” before adding that “if only one side wants [an extension], it’s not going to work out.”
It’s not a response that projects much confidence from Helsley about his prospects of remaining in town beyond the end of his contract. While the Cardinals have been seen as unlikely to part with Helsley on the trade market all winter even in spite of interest from rival clubs, keeping Helsley for the start of the regular season doesn’t necessarily mean that the club has interest in keeping the right-hander in the fold long-term or even that they’re opposed to considering a trade for Helsley over the summer if the club isn’t in playoff contention.
The biggest reason for the club to hold onto Helsley to open the season is that the club hopes to maintain some level of competitiveness in a relatively weak NL Central division this year. Helsley was among the best closers in baseball last season as he posted a 2.04 ERA and 2.41 FIP in 66 1/3 innings of work while collecting an MLB-best 49 saves. He struck out 29.7% of his opponents and continued to flash triple-digit velocity on his fastball. That’s the sort of dominant performance that can substantially boost a team’s odds of staying competitive, and the Cardinals don’t have a bevy of young relief arms ready to step into Helsley’s shoes the way they do with veteran hitters from the 2024 club like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.
Of course, another consideration is money. Helsley and the Cardinals settled at an $8.2MM salary to avoid arbitration this year. That $8.2MM, while not insignificant, would not do as much to assist the club’s goal of lowering payroll in 2025 as letting Goldschmidt (who signed for $12.5MM with the Yankees last month) depart in free agency did, to say nothing of how much more impactful trading most or all of the $60MM the Cardinals still owe Arenado over the next three seasons would be. In fact, Helsley’s impact relative to the Cardinals’ financial obligation to him arguably makes him one of the most valuable players on the team. Viewed through that lens, it’s understandable that St. Louis is planning to keep him in the fold through at least the first half of the season as they attempt to compete for a playoff spot.
Once Helsley is no longer under team control, that value calculation figures to change radically. Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader have set a new standard for elite relievers in free agency by landing deals that garnered both more than $90MM over a five-year period by measure of net present value. Helsley’s track record isn’t quite on the same level as Hader’s but even this year’s top free agent reliever, Tanner Scott, is rumored to be in line for an annual salary that could approach $20MM. If Scott, who had a dominant platform season but has a shorter track record of late-inning excellence than Helsley does, can land that sort of deal in free agency this winter it’s hard to imagine the righty not garnering a deal that at least comes close to doubling his annual salary next offseason.
That’s not the type of contract extension that would make sense for a Cardinals club that’s facing payroll constraints to offer, even before considering the uncertainty the team faces as it turns its focus towards developing younger players at the big league level. That makes it somewhat understandable for the Cardinals to not pursue an extension with Helsley at this point. After all, playing out the final year of his contract allows them to leave the door open for a midseason trade if the club is out of contention while also not stopping them from re-upping with him after the season should they believe that he’s a fit for their needs in 2026 and beyond. If the Cardinals exceed expectations and remain in the mix for a playoff spot all year, it will be much easier for them to project the level of competitiveness in 2026 necessary to make splurging on a closer of Helsley’s caliber more justifiable.
John Mozeliak Discusses Arenado, Cardinals’ Offseason
Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak met with reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) at the team’s Winter Warm-Up event today, and discussed several topics related to quiet St. Louis offseason. In general, Mozeliak didn’t have much new to offer on the Nolan Arenado trade front, other than to say that “I think priority one, two and three is still Nolan” in terms of how dealing the third baseman is the clear focal point for the rest of the team’s winter plans.
Mozeliak has been open abut the team’s intentions of cutting payroll and giving more playing time to younger players in 2025, even if the PBO and other Cardinals’ officials have stopped short of officially considering next season a rebuilding year. During the Winter Meetings, Mozeliak candidly said that “It’s my intention to try” and trade Arenado to aid in this process, and Arenado was tacitly on board with these endeavors, though Arenado ultimately has control over his own fate via his no-trade clause.
The eight-time All-Star already used this influence to reject a proposed deal in December that would’ve seen him dealt to the Astros, with Houston taking on — according to conflicting reports — at least $45MM and as much as $59MM of the $60MM still owed on Arenado’s contract. (The full total is $74MM, but the Rockies are covering $10MM of that figure and the other $4MM is reduced due to deferrals.) In the wake of that scuttled deal, the Astros moved on entirely by signing Christian Walker to address their corner infield needs, leaving St. Louis still in need of a trade partner.
Later reports suggested Arenado hadn’t entirely closed the door on joining the Astros, but just wanted more time to evaluate the situation considering that Houston had just dealt Kyle Tucker to the Cubs earlier that same week. Mozeliak admitted today that he “was a little bit surprised” Arenado turned down the trade, and suggested that the Cardinals were hampered by the timing of the Tucker deal. “It was almost more like order of operation. Had we been a few days ahead of that, I think there would’ve been [a trade]….So yeah, things happen.” Mozeliak said.
In regards to the lack of other interest in Arenado, Mozeliak said “I would imagine the free agent market would be what’s slowing that down,” referencing the fact that Alex Bregman remains unsigned. Some movement on the Arenado front could happen once Bregman chooses his next team, and Mozeliak said he hadn’t yet spoken with Arenado or his camp about possibly expanding the third baseman’s list of preferred trade destinations.
In fact, Mozeliak said he hadn’t directly spoken with Arenado for close to a month, as the two last had contact before the holidays. Given the calendar, their next conversation might also have to address the scenario where Arenado isn’t traded prior to Spring Training, so he’d have to go through his normal spring routine under the weight of a potential change of scenery.
“There’s the mental side of this too, right?” Mozeliak said. “He’s probably thinking, like, OK, if I have to come to camp, I want to start preparing for that, and maybe he wants to be committed to [staying in St. Louis] at that point. So I don’t want to speak for him at this point, because we have not discussed that. But clearly, as we get closer to Jupiter, that is something we will have to touch on.”
In a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers earlier this week, Anthony Franco described the Cardinals’ winter as “a half-measure offseason,” given how the team hadn’t dealt any of its higher-salaried players, let alone Arenado. Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray left the Cards’ hands tied by refusing to waive their own no-movement clauses, yet impending free agents Ryan Helsley, Erick Fedde, and Steven Matz all seem like obvious trade candidates, and all remain on the roster here in mid-January.
Mozeliak provided some explanation for not moving Fedde or Matz today, noting that the Cards “don’t really love [the] idea” of potentially leaving the team short-handed on the pitching front. “We really feel like we have some depth in our rotation right now, so I really don’t want to start preparing tearing away from that, in terms of thinking about moving a position player to achieve some financial goals,” Mozeliak said. “That would be something we could consider as well, but we really don’t want to.”
Fedde is owed $7.5MM in 2025, while Matz is owed $12MM and would likely be more of a salary-dump candidate given his injuries and struggles in recent years. Helsley will receive $8.2MM in his final season of team control. While all have substantial salaries, the $27.2MM total is only slightly less than the $27MM owed to Arenado in 2025, when Colorado’s $5MM contribution is subtracted from his $32MM price tag. Between that math and the $27MM also owed to Arenado in 2026, it seems like the Cardinals simply want to exhaust all possibilities in moving Arenado before moving onto other payroll-cutting moves.
The more salary St. Louis is able to unload, the more the team can also add to the roster. Mozeliak suggested that if the money becomes available, the club could look at “obviously [the] bullpen” or possibly “a right-handed bat with some thump, something like that.” The Cardinals have a decent amount of lineup balance already, but with Arenado on the move, the team would presumably be looking to replace him with another righty bat at a much lower price tag. In theory, this bat might come in the outfield — right fielder Jordan Walker is right-handed, but Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott II, and Michael Siani all swing from the left side.
The Cardinals Are Amidst A Half-Measure Offseason
The Cardinals have made zero trades this offseason. Two months ago, that would've been a huge surprise. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak declared at the end of the season that the team would cut MLB payroll and give consistent reps to younger players. Seven of MLBTR's Top 35 trade candidates entering the winter were Cardinals.
All of them remain Cardinals with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report. They're not all analogous situations. In at least three cases, the Cards themselves were probably taken aback. Willson Contreras told the team he had no interest in waiving his no-trade clause. Sonny Gray has also expressed an interest in staying rather than waiving his own no-trade rights. Nolan Arenado is reportedly more open to moving, though he used his no-trade clause to kill a potential trade to Houston.
Mozeliak has openly stated the organization is trying to deal Arenado. The baseball operations leader has called that the simplest way to get the team's payroll where they want it to be. That could still come together, but it has proven tougher to orchestrate than the front office seemingly envisioned. The Astros have already moved on. Other teams are reportedly balking at taking a big portion of the $64MM remaining on the third baseman's contract. Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote last week that talks on Arenado had stalled.
Those instances are beyond Mozeliak's control beyond the fact that he was willing to include no-trade clauses in Contreras' and Gray's free agent deals. (Arenado received his NTC from the Rockies when he signed his extension in 2019.) The front office probably expected those veterans would be eager to move rather than waiting out one or more transitional seasons. In that sense, the Cards are in an unenviable spot.
The most perplexing part of their offseason is that they haven't made any moves in response to those roadblocks. Their offseason has consisted of buying out Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton while claiming depth reliever Bailey Horn off waivers. That needs to change between now and Opening Day.
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17 Players Exchange Filing Figures
This evening’s deadline to exchange filing figures has come and gone. The majority of arbitration-eligible players agreed to contracts to avoid going to a hearing. There were 17 instances where the player and team did not come to terms.
Technically, nothing prevents players and teams from continuing to negotiate. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.
If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. They cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.
The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):
Angels
- Luis Rengifo (5.043): Filed at $5.95MM, team filed at $5.8MM (per Jon Heyman of the New York Post)
- José Quijada (4.046): Filed at $1.14MM, team filed at $975K (per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com)
- Mickey Moniak (3.027): Filed at $2MM, team filed at $1.5MM (per Feinsand)
Brewers
- William Contreras (3.112): Filed at $6.5MM, team filed at $5.6MM (per Feinsand)
Cardinals
- Lars Nootbaar (3.076): Filed at $2.95MM, team filed at $2.45MM (per Feinsand)
- Brendan Donovan (3.000): Filed at $3.3MM, team filed at $2.85MM (per Feinsand)
- Andre Pallante (2.145): Filed at $2.1MM, team filed at $1.925MM (per Feinsand)
Cubs
- Kyle Tucker (5.079): Filed at $17.5MM, team filed at $15MM (per Jesse Rogers of ESPN)
Dodgers
- Alex Vesia (4.078): Filed at $2.35MM, team filed at $2.05MM (per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic)
Nationals
- Nathaniel Lowe (4.145): Filed at $11.1MM, team filed at $10.3MM (per Alden González of ESPN)
Orioles
- Jorge Mateo (5.000): Filed at $4MM, team filed at $3.1MM (per Feinsand)
Padres
- Michael King (5.004): Filed at $8.8MM, team filed at $7.325MM (per Heyman)
Pirates
- Dennis Santana (4.126): Filed at $2.1MM, team filed at $1.4MM (per Feinsand)
- Johan Oviedo (3.079): Filed at $1.15MM, team filed at $850K (per Feinsand)
Rays
- Taylor Walls (3.092): Filed at $1.575MM, team filed at $1.3MM (per Feinsand)
Red Sox
- Jarren Duran (2.155): Filed at $4MM, team filed at $3.5MM (per Feinsand)
Yankees
- Mark Leiter Jr. (4.031): Filed at $2.5MM, team filed at $2.05MM (per Heyman)
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Tucker and the Cubs have the biggest gap in filing figures at $2.5MM. He’s one of the top two free agents in next year’s class and is unlikely to sign an extension, so they’re almost certainly headed to a hearing. King, who will be one of the best pitchers on the open market next winter, is the only other player with more than $1MM at stake depending on the results of the hearing. The smallest divide is the paltry $150K gap between Rengifo’s and the Angels’ respective filing figures. Hearings are scheduled to begin on January 27 and could run through February 14.