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Steven Matz

Latest On Cardinals’ Bullpen Trade Candidates

By Steve Adams | July 18, 2025 at 10:25am CDT

Cardinals lefty Steven Matz has drawn some trade interest as the July 31 deadline inches closer, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (video link, bullpen talk beginning around the 4:10 mark). “There are a handful of teams at least poking around on Matz,” per Goold. He adds that the Cardinals will also likely be open to offers on righty Phil Maton but would need a very strong offer to trade closer Ryan Helsley, who could receive a qualifying offer if he’s not moved.

[Related: St. Louis Cardinals Trade Deadline Outlook]

Matz, 34, is in the final season of a four-year, $44MM contract. He’s being paid $12MM this season and has about $4.65MM of that sum yet to be paid out. By the time deadline day rolls around, he’ll have about $3.8MM to go on that contract.

While the four-year deal hasn’t panned out as hope — Matz was injured/ineffective in both 2022 and 2024 — the 2025 season has been a good one for the veteran lefty. Matz has pitched well in two starts (nine innings, one run, 11 strikeouts, no walks) but has spent the majority of the season working in a multi-inning relief role. He’s pitched to a 3.35 ERA in 51 innings overall, fanning 21.4% of his opponents and limiting walks at a terrific 4.3% clip. He’s hit a rough patch of late, allowing nine runs in his past dozen innings, but it’s generally been a nice rebound year for the southpaw.

Goold adds that Matz has drawn interest from teams looking to fill a variety of roles. He obviously has a long track record as a starter and is pitching in multi-inning stints right now. It’d be possible to stretch Matz back out as a relatively under-the-radar target for teams seeking to fortify the back end of the rotation. Conversely, Matz has clear value in his current multi-inning role, and he has the stuff and results to succeed in a more traditional single-inning setup role.

Maton, 32, has been one of the top bargain pickups of the offseason. He surprisingly languished on the free-agent market into March despite a nice 2024 season — really, a nice three-year run from 2022-24 — and ultimately signed for a modest $2MM guarantee with the Cards. He’s been a key arm in the St. Louis bullpen, pitching 35 1/3 innings with a 2.55 ERA, a 30.4% strikeout rate rate and a 9.5% walk rate. That strikeout rate would be a career-best in a 162-game season.

The lack of interest in Maton may have stemmed from some worrying trends with regard to his velocity. He’s never been a hard-thrower, but last year’s 88.7 mph average on his cutter and 87.5 mph average on his sinker were steps down from the prior season (and a career-worst with regard to his sinker). He’s added about two miles per hour to each pitch in 2025, sitting 90.4 mph on his cutter and 89.5 mph on his sinker.

It’s still below-average velocity, but this is the fourth straight year that Maton has enjoyed success with meager heat on his pitches — and he’s only owed about $774K more of this year’s salary as of this writing ($634K after deadline day). Budget-crunched teams seeking a reliable setup arm should have interest. Maton has already tied a career-high with 18 holds, and he’s picked up a pair of saves as well.

As for the 31-year-old Helsley, he’s enjoying a strong season overall but hasn’t matched his 2024 dominance. Last year, the flamethrowing righty notched a 2.04 ERA with an NL-best 49 saves while fanning 29.7% of his opponents. This season, he’s pitched to a 3.27 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and 19 saves. He’s still owed about $3.17MM of this year’s $8.2MM salary (a number that’ll dip to $2.6MM by the day of the deadline itself).

Last year’s qualifying offer clocked in at $21.05MM. That number figures to rise this season. It’d be a steep price to pay for one year of any reliever, but there’s a good chance Helsley would still reject the QO and look for a lucrative multi-year contract. He won’t command an AAV that strong on a longer-term deal, but this offseason will represent his best chance to cash in on a long-term deal.

There’ll surely be some temptation to accept that sizable one-year deal and test the open market post-2026, without the burden of draft pick compensation, but doing so runs the risk of incurring an injury or major downturn in performance next year. Relief pitching is immensely volatile on a year-to-year basis. There’s also the looming specter of a potential lockout in the 2026-27 offseason, given the Dec. 2026 expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. Having a multi-year deal in place is surely preferable to being a free agent in such an uncertain offseason.

If Helsley were to reject a QO and sign for more than $50MM total — which seems quite attainable — the Cardinals would receive a compensatory pick after the first round in the 2026 draft. Any return on Helsley would need to reflect that. It’s also possible the Cardinals have some hope of keeping Helsley, whether via that one-year QO or perhaps by negotiating a multi-year extension after making said offer. Helsley has said in the past that he’d love to stay in St. Louis long-term.

Any decisions on Helsley — and, to a lesser extent, Matz and Maton — will hinge on the Cardinals’ play in the early stages coming out of the All-Star break. At 51-46 on the season, they’re currently 6.5 games back of the division-leading Cubs but only 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

The Cardinals open the season’s second half with a pivotal three-game road set against a D-backs club in a similar position of needing to string together some wins to avoid a notable deadline sell-off. The Cardinals, 22-26 on the road versus 29-20 at home, will send Andre Pallante, Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas to the mound. Arizona will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Merrill Kelly. The Cardinals then head to Colorado for three games before hosting the Padres and Marlins in their final two series prior to the July 31 trade deadline. With a strong performance over the next 12 games, they could opt to hold onto most of their veterans and look to add pieces, while a string of series losses could be the deciding factor in trading away short-term veterans.

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Cardinals Moving Steven Matz To Bullpen

By Nick Deeds | May 3, 2025 at 8:48pm CDT

The Cardinals are moving southpaw Steven Matz back to the bullpen, as manager Oli Marmol told reporters including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. The move may not be permanent, as Jones notes that Marmol described the move as “for the time being,” and added that Marmol made clear that the plan is for Matz to remain stretched out and able to step back into the rotation as needed in the future. The Cardinals have four days off in May, which makes running out a six-man rotation difficult and was the primary reason that Matz began the season in the bullpen before moving into the rotation just over two weeks ago.

Temporary as the move back into a relief role may prove to be, it still has to be a frustrating turn of events for the soon-to-be 34-year-old veteran. It’s impossible to argue that the role change is performance related, as Matz boasts a tidy 1.50 ERA on the season with a 1.89 FIP overall. His work in the rotation has been even better, as in two starts he’s struck out 11 of the 34 batters he’s faced while allowing just one run and zero walks in a combined nine innings of work. Meanwhile, both Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas have posted below-average numbers by ERA+ across each of their six starts.

With that being said, the move does make some sense. After all, Matz is no stranger to having his role changed in the season. 2025 is the southpaw’s fourth season in St. Louis, and all four of them have seen Matz both start games and pitch in relief. It’s been a tumultuous tenure in St. Louis; while the lefty sports a 4.15 ERA and 3.78 FIP overall that paint him as a fairly typical mid-to-back of the rotation arm, two of his four years with the Cardinals have seen Matz pitch less than 50 innings due to injuries while his ERA ballooned over 5.00. Between Matz’s uneven performances over the years and his experience pitching in relief, it’s hard to deny that there’s logic in moving him to the bullpen rather than a player like Mikolas who last pitched in relief as a major leaguer back in 2013.

Regardless of the role Matz pitches in going forward, he figures to be one of the more coveted arms available at the deadline if the Cardinals can’t turn things around after a 14-19 start and the lefty continues to pitch at anything close to the level he’s performed at this year. Pitching of all sorts is highly desirable on the trade market come the summertime, and contending clubs like the Yankees, Mets, and Rangers already have clear needs that a player like Matz could complement perfectly. The veteran is in his final season under team control, meaning the Cardinals would have little reason to hang onto him if they aren’t in contention come July, and if he can stay stretched out until trade season Matz’s role flexibility could actually make him more valuable on the trade market by keeping teams in need of both rotation help and bullpen help interested in his services.

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St. Louis Cardinals Steven Matz

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Cardinals Moving Steven Matz Back Into Rotation

By Anthony Franco | April 15, 2025 at 11:14pm CDT

Steven Matz makes his return to the Cardinals’ rotation tomorrow afternoon. The lefty is scheduled for his first start of the season against the Astros. Matz had opened the season in the bullpen because the Cards had off days in each of the first three weeks. They’re now going into their sixth game of a stretch of 13 consecutive game days, so they’ll move to a six-man rotation.

This has been the plan since Opening Day. St. Louis wanted to give Matthew Liberatore another rotation opportunity after he’d spent most of last season in long relief. Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas were rotation locks, while Andre Pallante has maintained his hold on the fourth starter role. Matz temporarily kicked into relief since it didn’t make much sense to use a six-man rotation when they had so many off days.

Matz has found success over his first five appearances. He has tossed 11 2/3 innings, allowing four runs (three earned). His six strikeouts and 9% swinging strike rate haven’t been overpowering, but he’s throwing a lot of strikes and has gotten grounders at a solid 46.2% rate. Matz’s most recent appearance came on Sunday. He threw 46 pitches in 2 1/3 innings against Philadelphia. He’ll be working on three days rest and hasn’t had a full rotation workload, so he’ll be on a tighter pitch limit tomorrow. Daniel Guerrero of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Matz will be capped around 65 pitches.

The 33-year-old Matz is in the final season of his four-year free agent deal. His Cardinals tenure has mostly been marred by inconsistency and injury, though he did manage a 3.86 ERA in 105 innings two seasons ago. A back injury kept him to 44 1/3 frames over 12 appearances (seven starts) last year. He allowed 5.08 earned runs per nine with a below-average 17.4% strikeout rate. Matz is making $12MM and could net the Cardinals some salary relief and/or a modest return closer to the trade deadline if he has a solid first half.

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Cardinals Set Opening Day Roster, Plan To Use Six-Man Rotation In Mid-April

By Mark Polishuk | March 23, 2025 at 9:59pm CDT

Reports last week suggested that the Cardinals were thinking about utilizing a six-man rotation as a way of finding innings for both the veterans on the staff and for the younger arms the Cards are prioritizing in this semi-rebuild year for the franchise.  Manager Oliver Marmol confirmed to reporters (including The Athletic’s Katie Woo) today that the Cardinals will indeed use six starters during a busy stretch of the schedule that will see St. Louis play 26 games over 27 days from April 11 through May 7.

There is a bit of surprise in which starters will be involved in the expanded rotation, as the Cards optioned Michael McGreevy to Triple-A Memphis today.  McGreevy is one of the Cardinals’ top pitching prospects, and after impressing in his first 23 MLB innings last season, seemed poised to break camp with the team after posting a 1.08 ERA over 16 2/3 spring innings.

However, Matthew Liberatore also turned heads in camp, with a 1.62 across his own 16 2/3 frames of work.  As a result, Liberatore was named as one of the initial starting five (along with Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, and Andre Pallante), with Steven Matz slated to work as a long man before becoming the sixth starter.

Obviously, a single injury could change these plans considerably, and some other health issues in camp also perhaps factored in the Cardinals’ plans.  Zack Thompson and Drew Rom are both dealing with injuries, so McGreevy became needed as a Triple-A depth arm given the lack of other ready options.  Given how rare it is for a pitching staff to get through a season in one piece, it might not be long before McGreevy gets another opportunity in the Show.

The “you can never have too much pitching” mantra looms large in what is technically a surplus situation for the Cardinals pitching staff.  Yet the number of arms available also relates to a strangely quiet offseason, as the Cards ended up retaining most of their veteran talent despite their stated goal last fall to view 2025 as something of a re-development year.  The team’s inability to trade Nolan Arenado garnered the most headlines, yet on the pitching end, St. Louis also opted to keep Fedde, who has only one year remaining on his contract.  Gray had no interest in waiving his no-trade clause to go elsewhere, and trading Mikolas or Matz (also free agents next winter) could’ve probably required the Cards to eat some money since both pitchers are coming off down years.

Mikolas or Matz could be more plausibly moved closer to the deadline, perhaps in salary-dump fashion once some of their salaries are already doled out over the first half.  Fedde might be one of the most sought-after rental pitchers at the deadline if he matches his 2024 form, though naturally the Cardinals are hoping they can return to contention this year, rather than look to sell at the deadline.

Marmol also announced the rest of the Cardinals’ roster for Opening Day, including the news that Victor Scott II won the team’s center field competition.  Scott was battling with Michael Siani for the job, yet Scott outhit not only Siani (who struggled badly) but also just about the rest of the team by posting a 1.225 OPS over 49 plate appearances.  Scott may not play every single day since Lars Nootbaar also figures to get some time in center as the Cardinals juggle around their lineup, but Scott has put himself in position to get the lion’s share of playing time up the middle.

Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Masyn Winn will be the only true lineup regulars for St. Louis, and Brendan Donovan is also expected to play every day but at multiple positions.  Moving Arenado would’ve helped open up third base and a lineup position to get more players onto the field, yet Marmol said he is confident of the team’s plans to rotate players around without necessarily adhering to strict platoons.

“I’m going to do my absolute best to get everybody the necessary amount of at-bats for us to know what we have at the end of the year….We’ll see what this looks like in 30 days, 60 days, 90 days.  But we’ll have a [lineup] rotation that while we’re all healthy, still gets guys at-bats,” Marmol said.

Infielder Jose Fermin won’t be part of this mix in the early going, as Fermin was optioned to Triple-A today.  Woo notes that Fermin was told earlier this week that he would be part of the Opening Day roster, yet the Cardinals’ plan apparently changed in the last few days.  Without Fermin, the Cards don’t have a proper backup shortstop, yet the versatile Donovan will handle that role if Winn is given a breather.

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St. Louis Cardinals Jose Fermin Matthew Liberatore Michael McGreevy Michael Siani Steven Matz Victor Scott

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Cardinals Mulling Six-Man Rotation

By Steve Adams | March 17, 2025 at 11:25am CDT

The Cardinals are considering opening the season with a six-man rotation, manager Oliver Marmol revealed this morning (link via John Denton of MLB.com). Doing so would allow the club to get righty Michael McGreevy some starts alongside Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante and Steven Matz.

St. Louis has a veteran-laden rotation that includes two pitchers (Gray, Mikolas) who might’ve been trade candidates this winter were it not for full no-trade protection in both of their deals. Matz’s $12MM salary made him difficult for the Cards to move as well, and the team chose not to deal Fedde despite the right-hander having just one season left on his contract as the organization enters something of a transition year that was intended to focus on developing younger players.

McGreevy, 24, was the Cardinals’ first-round pick back in 2021 and made a brief MLB debut in 2024, tossing 23 innings with a 1.96 ERA and an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio. He also pitched to a 4.02 earned run average with a 21.6% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 49% ground-ball rate in 150 Triple-A frames. He currently ranks 10th among Cardinals prospects at Baseball America and 11th at MLB.com. He’s also already made 51 starts at the Triple-A level over the past two seasons and thus has little left to prove at the top minor league level.

So far in camp, McGreevy has pitched 11 2/3 innings and held opponents to a pair of runs on nine hits. He hasn’t walked any of the 43 batters he’s faced and has kept the ball on the ground at a nice 47.1% clip, though his 18.6% strikeout rate is a ways below average. Be that as it may, it’s been an undeniably strong camp for a former first-rounder who looks largely ready for an earnest big league audition.

There are obviously factors that could yet change the composition of a potential six-man group. Injuries are abundant this time of year and could impact any rotation at any point. The Cards were at least reported to be “open” to offers on Fedde earlier this month, though there’s no real indication they’re seriously pursuing a trade of the affordable right-hander, who’s earning $7.5MM this year. They’ve also been considering left-hander and former top prospect Matthew Liberatore for rotation work, although president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said late last week that at least initially, the expectation was that Liberatore would break camp as a reliever (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

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St. Louis Cardinals Andre Pallante Erick Fedde Matthew Liberatore Michael McGreevy Miles Mikolas Sonny Gray Steven Matz

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McGreevy, Liberatore In The Mix For Rotation Spots With Cardinals

By Anthony Franco | March 11, 2025 at 10:37am CDT

The Cardinals have a trio of veteran pitchers locked into their season-opening rotation: Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas. As they declined options on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, the Cards expressed a desire to create rotation opportunities for younger arms at the back end.

St. Louis has a trio of controllable pitchers in the mix for the last couple rotation spots. Andre Pallante turned in a 3.78 ERA behind a massive 61.8% grounder rate in 121 1/3 innings last season. Former first-round pick Michael McGreevy debuted with four appearances. He worked to a 1.96 ERA over his first 23 major league innings. The Cards used left-hander Matthew Liberatore in a relief role down the stretch, but he’s not locked into the bullpen for the upcoming season.

Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that the Cardinals have been encouraged by Liberatore’s stuff this spring and are considering giving him another rotation opportunity. The 25-year-old southpaw has worked in relief for all four of his Spring Training appearances, but that’s not especially meaningful when all pitchers are throwing in short stints as they build into game shape. Liberatore has tossed 9 2/3 innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts and a pair of walks.

Liberatore made 60 appearances last season, all but six of which came out of the bullpen. The former top prospect allowed 4.40 earned runs per nine. His 21.2% strikeout rate was a career high but still checked in a bit below league average. Liberatore showed solid control and got grounders at a roughly average 42.2% rate.

With one option remaining, Liberatore can head back to Triple-A if the Cardinals want to allow him to continue building as a starter. It’s also possible he slots back into a bullpen role. The latter outcome doesn’t seem to be on the table for McGreevy. Manager Oli Marmol said over the weekend that the Cards weren’t interested in pushing the right-hander into relief to ensure he snags an Opening Day roster spot.

“I don’t see him as a guy who will benefit at all by going to the ’pen and breaking with us in that type of role,” Marmol said (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). “My preference would be for him to start. When you go into the offseason and a lot of the messaging is around opportunity, then you want to keep guys in the role that they see them being in long term. And for him, we see him as a starter.”

McGreevy has a pair of minor league options. There’s a decent chance he’ll open the year in the Triple-A rotation. The UC Santa Barbara product spent most of last season at that level. He made 27 starts and worked 150 innings of 4.02 ERA ball. McGreevy kept the ball on the ground at a near-50% clip with slightly lower than average strikeout (21.6%) and walk (6.9%) marks. He could probably hold his own at the back of a major league rotation, but the options afford St. Louis flexibility to keep him stretched out in the minors.

Assuming Pallante has a leg up on the fourth starter role, that’d leave Liberatore and McGreevy competing with veteran lefty Steven Matz for the final spot. Matz isn’t a controllable long-term piece, but the Cardinals would love to see him create some level of trade value. He’s owed $12MM in the final season of a four-year deal that hasn’t panned out. While the Cards aren’t going to get any kind of significant return, a solid first half could allow them to offload part of his contract around the deadline.

Matz suffered back injuries that limited him to 44 1/3 innings last year. He allowed just over five earned runs per nine with a modest 17.4% strikeout rate. Matz has tossed nine innings of three-run ball over three appearances in exhibition play. He’ll be on the MLB roster in some capacity but could work in long relief if he doesn’t win the fifth starter job.

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St. Louis Cardinals Andre Pallante Matthew Liberatore Michael McGreevy Steven Matz

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Poll: Should The Cardinals Trade A Starter?

By Nick Deeds | February 14, 2025 at 1:12pm CDT

The Cardinals’ offseason has been defined by their attempts to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado. The club allowed key players like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge to head into free agency this winter and did nothing to replace them as they focused on cutting payroll and starting a youth movement at the major league level. The club seemingly wanted to pair that with trades of some of its most expensive veteran players, but Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras both quickly made it clear that they weren’t interested in waiving their no-trade clauses.

That left Arenado as the most prominent trade candidate on the roster, but the third baseman vetoed a trade to the Astros at the eleventh hour back in December and his market began to dry up rapidly after that. The final nail in the coffin appeared to be the Red Sox, Arenado’s last serious known suitor, signing Alex Bregman to round out their infield mix. Now, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitting it’s likely Arenado remains in St. Louis to start the season, the Cardinals are poised to enter 2025 with the most notable change as compared to last year’s team being a lack of Goldschmidt at first base.

There’s one way the Cardinals could inject some more youth into the roster and create space in the payroll: trading from the rotation. Both Gray and veteran righty Miles Mikolas have no-trade clauses and appear unlikely to waive them, but veteran starters Erick Fedde and Steven Matz are both pending free agents who lack no-trade protection. Both players reportedly received interest from rival clubs earlier this offseason, and while the Cardinals at the time appeared focused on dealing Arenado rather than from the rotation, the unlikelihood of an Arenado trade could change that calculus.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored for Front Office subscribers earlier this week, there are a number of teams around the league that could still use starting pitching help. Fedde in particular could likely bring back an enticing return as a relatively affordable rental starter who posted a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 31 starts last year. The right-hander will make just $7.5MM in 2025, a sum that virtually any team could afford even during this late stage of the offseason. Matz is less likely to bring back significant talent in return given his up-and-down trajectory over the years, but shedding some of his $12MM salary for 2025 would allow the Cardinals to add a veteran reliever to set up for closer Ryan Helsley or even take on a bit more money to try and facilitate the Arenado deal with a cash-strapped club like the Yankees. (The Cardinals’ reluctance with regard to trading Helsley, also an impending free agent, is another curious decision, as highlighted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco last month.)

In addition to the prospects and/or salary relief trading a veteran starter could net, the Cardinals would also more clearly make way for their young arms to get work at the big league level. Top prospect Tink Hence has yet to make his Triple-A debut but dominated Double-A last year and should be on the big league radar later this year. In the meantime, Michael McGreevy is already knocking on the door of the majors after posting a 1.96 ERA in 23 innings as a starter for the club last year. Sem Robberse, Quinn Mathews and Tekoah Roby are among the potential starting options the Cardinals have at their disposal that don’t currently have a path to major league starts.

On the other hand, none of those options has proven himself in the majors. With Arenado now seemingly unlikely to move, the Cardinals may feel they’re better off trying to contend this year, at least in the first half when they still have the opportunity to pivot back towards selling at the trade deadline. After all, the Cardinals won 83 games last year despite their flawed roster, and a healthy season from Contreras, better batted ball luck from Gray, and a resurgence from Arenado could allow them to contend in an NL Central division that still looks relatively soft even after teams like the Cubs and Reds have made notable moves.

It’s also worth noting that, even without trading Arenado or a starter, the club has made at least some room for a legitimate youth movement to take place. Kicking Willson Contreras over to first base has opened up the catcher position for youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, while the departures of Gibson and Lance Lynn from the rotation have opened up a spot for Andre Pallante after he impressed in a rotation role last year. Other players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker figure to get more consistent playing time in 2025, and all it takes is an injury or two to get players like Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott II more regular playing time in the majors as well.

With Opening Day just six weeks away, how do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals should proceed? Should they double down on their youth movement and deal a starter like Fedde or Matz to salvage their offseason of inaction, or should they hold onto their veteran rotation pieces through the early days of the season in hopes that internal improvements could make them a legitimate contender? Have your say in the poll below:

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls St. Louis Cardinals Erick Fedde Steven Matz

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John Mozeliak Discusses Arenado, Cardinals’ Offseason

By Mark Polishuk | January 18, 2025 at 2:59pm CDT

Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak met with reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) at the team’s Winter Warm-Up event today, and discussed several topics related to quiet St. Louis offseason.  In general, Mozeliak didn’t have much new to offer on the Nolan Arenado trade front, other than to say that “I think priority one, two and three is still Nolan” in terms of how dealing the third baseman is the clear focal point for the rest of the team’s winter plans.

Mozeliak has been open abut the team’s intentions of cutting payroll and giving more playing time to younger players in 2025, even if the PBO and other Cardinals’ officials have stopped short of officially considering next season a rebuilding year.  During the Winter Meetings, Mozeliak candidly said that “It’s my intention to try” and trade Arenado to aid in this process, and Arenado was tacitly on board with these endeavors, though Arenado ultimately has control over his own fate via his no-trade clause.

The eight-time All-Star already used this influence to reject a proposed deal in December that would’ve seen him dealt to the Astros, with Houston taking on — according to conflicting reports — at least $45MM and as much as $59MM of the $60MM still owed on Arenado’s contract.  (The full total is $74MM, but the Rockies are covering $10MM of that figure and the other $4MM is reduced due to deferrals.)  In the wake of that scuttled deal, the Astros moved on entirely by signing Christian Walker to address their corner infield needs, leaving St. Louis still in need of a trade partner.

Later reports suggested Arenado hadn’t entirely closed the door on joining the Astros, but just wanted more time to evaluate the situation considering that Houston had just dealt Kyle Tucker to the Cubs earlier that same week.  Mozeliak admitted today that he “was a little bit surprised” Arenado turned down the trade, and suggested that the Cardinals were hampered by the timing of the Tucker deal.  “It was almost more like order of operation.  Had we been a few days ahead of that, I think there would’ve been [a trade]….So yeah, things happen.” Mozeliak said.

In regards to the lack of other interest in Arenado, Mozeliak said “I would imagine the free agent market would be what’s slowing that down,” referencing the fact that Alex Bregman remains unsigned.  Some movement on the Arenado front could happen once Bregman chooses his next team, and Mozeliak said he hadn’t yet spoken with Arenado or his camp about possibly expanding the third baseman’s list of preferred trade destinations.

In fact, Mozeliak said he hadn’t directly spoken with Arenado for close to a month, as the two last had contact before the holidays.  Given the calendar, their next conversation might also have to address the scenario where Arenado isn’t traded prior to Spring Training, so he’d have to go through his normal spring routine under the weight of a potential change of scenery.

“There’s the mental side of this too, right?” Mozeliak said.  “He’s probably thinking, like, OK, if I have to come to camp, I want to start preparing for that, and maybe he wants to be committed to [staying in St. Louis] at that point.  So I don’t want to speak for him at this point, because we have not discussed that.  But clearly, as we get closer to Jupiter, that is something we will have to touch on.”

In a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers earlier this week, Anthony Franco described the Cardinals’ winter as “a half-measure offseason,” given how the team hadn’t dealt any of its higher-salaried players, let alone Arenado.  Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray left the Cards’ hands tied by refusing to waive their own no-movement clauses, yet impending free agents Ryan Helsley, Erick Fedde, and Steven Matz all seem like obvious trade candidates, and all remain on the roster here in mid-January.

Mozeliak provided some explanation for not moving Fedde or Matz today, noting that the Cards “don’t really love [the] idea” of potentially leaving the team short-handed on the pitching front.  “We really feel like we have some depth in our rotation right now, so I really don’t want to start preparing tearing away from that, in terms of thinking about moving a position player to achieve some financial goals,” Mozeliak said.  “That would be something we could consider as well, but we really don’t want to.”

Fedde is owed $7.5MM in 2025, while Matz is owed $12MM and would likely be more of a salary-dump candidate given his injuries and struggles in recent years.  Helsley will receive $8.2MM in his final season of team control.  While all have substantial salaries, the $27.2MM total is only slightly less than the $27MM owed to Arenado in 2025, when Colorado’s $5MM contribution is subtracted from his $32MM price tag.  Between that math and the $27MM also owed to Arenado in 2026, it seems like the Cardinals simply want to exhaust all possibilities in moving Arenado before moving onto other payroll-cutting moves.

The more salary St. Louis is able to unload, the more the team can also add to the roster.  Mozeliak suggested that if the money becomes available, the club could look at “obviously [the] bullpen” or possibly “a right-handed bat with some thump, something like that.”  The Cardinals have a decent amount of lineup balance already, but with Arenado on the move, the team would presumably be looking to replace him with another righty bat at a much lower price tag.  In theory, this bat might come in the outfield — right fielder Jordan Walker is right-handed, but Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott II, and Michael Siani all swing from the left side.

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Nolan Arenado Reportedly Less Likely To Be Traded

By Steve Adams | January 9, 2025 at 4:49pm CDT

The Nolan Arenado saga has been perhaps the main storyline of the Cardinals’ offseason. As the club looks to scale back payroll and open up playing time for younger players (Nolan Gorman, in particular), Arenado has become one of the most prominent trade candidates in the sport. His full no-trade clause, downturn at the plate since 2023 and remaining three years and $74MM ($10MM of which is being covered by the Rockies) all combine to complicate the matter, however; Arenado has already reportedly invoked that no-trade clause to nix a deal to the Astros, who pivoted in mere days and signed first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal instead (a contract nearly mirroring the $64MM they’d have owed to Arenado).

Agent Joel Wolfe said at last month’s Winter Meetings that Arenado was only open to trades to clubs where he felt he could win both in the short-term and for the remainder of his contract. It’s a bit odd that the Astros, who reached the playoffs in 2024 and reached the ALCS each season from 2017-23, didn’t fit that criteria, but there are surely multiple factors behind his decision.

Since that time, the Red Sox have been painted as the last and best hope for the Cardinals to orchestrate an Arenado trade. Even there, the situation is muddy. Acquiring Arenado would very likely mean moving Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base, where Triston Casas currently resides. Casas could see more time at DH, though the Sox are committed to Masataka Yoshida, who has three years and $54MM remaining, at that position. There’s the possibility of trading Casas, but Boston would surely need major league talent in return. It’s debatable whether they’d be better off with Arenado at third, Devers at first and whatever young talent they could get in return for Casas. Simultaneously, the Sox are considering a run at Alex Bregman (who’d also require shifting Devers to first and finding a trade for Casas or a taker for Yoshida). It’s all quite messy.

For those reasons and more, Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that he outlook on a possible Arenado deal is becoming increasingly bleak. Woo writes that efforts to move Arenado are at a “standstill” — in part because St. Louis isn’t interested in eating a notable chunk of the contract when part of their reason for wanting to move the third baseman is a desire to scale back spending. If no deal for Arenado materializes, per Woo, the Cards could look into other ways to trim payroll (and acquire young talent).

It’s quite arguable that the Cardinals should already be doing as much. The team isn’t making any efforts to improve the club for the upcoming season, after all, and the Cards are fresh off an 83-79 season. They’ve bid farewell to Kyle Gibson Lance Lynn, Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge in free agency. Absent any effort to truly push closer to contention, it’s a stretch to think the Cardinals will make massive strides within the NL Central — let alone emerge as a bona fide threat in the postseason even if they limp to a playoff berth through a good showing within a weak division.

St. Louis has plenty of appealing players who’ll be free agents after the season and could be marketed to other clubs. Starter Erick Fedde ($7.5MM), closer Ryan Helsley ($8.2MM) and to a lesser extent veteran starter Steven Matz ($12MM) would all pique the interest of other clubs. That’s also true of setup man JoJo Romero, who’s controlled only through 2026. If the Cards aren’t taking a wholehearted aim at contending in 2025 anyhow, there’s good reason to explore trades of those players in the here and now, rather than risk a downturn in value following injuries or a poor first half of the season.

Moving Fedde or Matz would thin out the current rotation depth for a club that needs innings, though there’s of course the possibility to backfill via free agency. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this week that the club still has some interest in Mizzou product Kyle Gibson, who enjoyed pitching close to home last year and played a key mentor role for many of the team’s young players. Trading Fedde for prospects, for instance, and signing Gibson to replenish those innings could bolster the long-term outlook. It might not significantly reduce payroll on its own — it may slightly increase it, in fact — but it’d benefit the long-term health of the organization. Such a trade could also be coupled with deals of Matz and/or Helsley as well. Goold notes that both Fedde and Matz have drawn interest throughout the winter, which is only logical given the soaring price of free-agent pitching.

While The Athletic and Post-Dispatch continue to caution that chances of a trade don’t look great right now — Ken Rosenthal suggested as much today on Fair Territory, as well — MLB.com and MLB Network frame things differently. John Denton wrote this week that the Red Sox could soon pull out of the Bregman bidding, which would greatly improve the chances of an Arenado trade with St. Louis. The third baseman has already formally told the club he’d green-light a deal to Boston, per Denton, and he’s talked with friend and former teammate Trevor Story about the possibility of reuniting at Fenway Park.

Further, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested on air this morning that as options have begun to dwindle, Arenado has begun to take a more open-minded approach. Some clubs that showed interest last month but didn’t pursue trades because of Arenado’s narrow list of criteria could come back into play, per Morosi. He suggests the Mariners and Tigers as two such clubs, though it’s virtually impossible to see how the Mariners could be considered a viable suitor given their well-documented financial constraints this winter.

The Tigers are a more plausible fit on paper, but they’ve spent quite conservatively under president of baseball ops Scott Harris; perhaps they’d have interest, but it’s hard to see them paying full freight on that contract, particularly when they have some third base options in house already (including top prospect Jace Jung).

Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweeted this morning that the Royals were among the teams that reached out to the Cardinals last month but didn’t pursue a trade because of a belief that Arenado wouldn’t green-light the deal. The Royals are still seeking another bat, and incumbent Maikel Garcia is a glove-first player with a lighter bat than even the recently diminished version of Arenado. Kansas City also traded its top third base prospect, Cayden Wallace, to the Nationals in last summer’s Hunter Harvey swap.

However, Arenado’s contract would figure to be quite problematic for the Royals. Beyond the $64MM total he’s owed is the fact that said commitment is front-loaded; Arenado is owed $32MM this coming season ($5MM being covered by Colorado). The Royals’ payroll is already close to $10MM higher than it was a year ago, per RosterResource. Rosenthal noted in the aforementioned Fair Territory segment (17:50 mark) that he was surprised Kansas City even eked out another $7MM to re-sign Michael Lorenzen. Piling an additional $27MM onto the payroll and pushing their Opening Day would push payroll close to or slightly north of $150MM. That’d top the current franchise record of $143MM, set back in 2017. Arenado might represent a clearer upgrade to the Royals or Mariners than to some other speculative fits, but neither seems to have the financial wherewithal to bring him aboard — even if Arenado were willing to approve the deal.

If that feels like a lot of words effectively downplaying the possibility of a trade and maintaining the status quo — well, it is. The simple reality is that Arenado was never going to be an easy player to move, and his decision to quash a trade to Houston — and the Astros’ immediate pivot — probably eliminated the best chance of the Cardinals moving him at all. Absent a new approach from the Yankees — New York offered Marcus Stroman for Arenado earlier this winter, which didn’t interest St. Louis — there’s no long-term contender with a clear need at third base and ample payroll space to take on a 34-year-old player whose bat appears to be on the decline.

Chances of a trade shouldn’t be considered dead and buried, of course. Spring injuries could always create a need for a big-payroll contender whose options at that juncture are limited. Such circumstances could prove a meaningful catalyst. Trades elsewhere on the market could alter another team’s considerations at the hot corner and spark some interest in Arenado. For now, however, it seems increasingly likely that Arenado may not have the market to facilitate a trade. If the Cardinals begrudgingly come to feel the same, it could create some fascinating ripple effects with regard to the rest of their roster.

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Latest On Nolan Arenado

By Mark Polishuk | December 31, 2024 at 8:18am CDT

It has been about two weeks since Nolan Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto a proposed deal that would’ve seen the veteran third baseman go from the Cardinals to the Astros.  The next step in the Cards’ efforts to trade Arenado remain unclear, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Katie Woo report that “there has been minimal traction on Arenado’s front since the Astros deal fell through.”

The lack of activity isn’t exactly surprising given how many factors complicate any potential deal.  The Rockies are covering $10MM of the remaining $74MM owed to Arenado over the last three years of his contract, and some deferred money involved in the contract reportedly makes Arenado’s remaining salary worth $60MM in present-day money.  That’s still a big chunk of change that the Cardinals are looking to mostly shed from their payroll, leaving a fairly limited number of possible suitors who have both payroll space and a need at third base.

To the latter point, Arenado has indicated a willingness to change positions, as his agent Joel Wolfe told reporters during the Winter Meetings.  Arenado is ultimately in the driver’s seat in these negotiations due to his no-trade protection, and past reports have indicated that he would okay a deal to the Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, or Padres, though it appears this list of preferred destinations is somewhat fluid.

In fact, Houston was on an initial version of that list, as Woo and Chandler Rome wrote earlier this month.  The Astros’ trade of Kyle Tucker just a few days before the proposed Arenado trade reportedly gave him pause about going to Houston, which is why he invoked his no-trade clause at the time.  However, the door wasn’t entirely closed on a potential deal, as Sammon and Woo write that Arenado “was willing to revisit the Astros after further clarity developed in his market (namely, Alex Bregman signing).”

The Astros ended up moving on from both Arenado and Bregman, as they instead signed Christian Walker as their new everyday first baseman, thus pushing Isaac Paredes (acquired in the Tucker deal with the Cubs) across the diamond as the new regular third baseman.  Even with his former team now out of the running, Bregman is still garnering plenty of interest, as such clubs as the Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mets have all been linked to him this winter.  Reports have been somewhat mixed about the Yankees’ interest in either Arenado or Bregman, as the primary hold-up in Arenado’s case being New York’s unwillingness to take on the bulk of his remaining salary.

The overlap between Bregman’s market and Arenado’s reported trade preference list is likely why Arenado’s situation hasn’t much changed in the last couple of weeks, as it might take Bregman signing to spark renewed interest in teams returning to trade talks with the Cardinals.  If Arenado can’t be traded at all, St. Louis could simply bring him back for the coming season and perhaps explore deals later — even as early as the trade deadline, as a hot start from Arenado could help erase any worries a suitor might have about his average offensive numbers from the last two seasons.

Keeping Arenado even for the short term doesn’t solve the Cardinals’ desire to cut payroll, however, so Sammon and Woo write the Cards would then likely put a better emphasis on trading a starting pitcher to save some money.  Sonny Gray has indicated he isn’t going to waive his own no-trade protection and Andre Pallante is still in his arbitration-eligible years, leaving Miles Mikolas (owed $16MM in 2025), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) or Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) as the top trade chips.  It seems likely that St. Louis would be open to moving Mikolas or Matz with or without an Arenado trade, though Sammon and Woo note that the Cardinals would prefer to keep Fedde until closer to the deadline, if they move him at all.

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