- As a minor league free agent this winter, former Orioles’ right-hander David Hess jumped quickly at the opportunity to join the Tampa Bay Rays, signing a minors deal early in December. The Rays made their pitch to Hess on the first day of free agency, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Said Hess, “One thing the Rays have built a track record of is developing guys and being specific in who they’re looking for, and so when they came in that quickly, we right away knew how serious they were. That meant a lot to us. That was just something, them being the first team and how interested they were, that tipped the scales in their favor in a pretty good way.” Hess owns a 5.96 ERA/6.41 FIP in 190 1/3 innings spanning three seasons in his career.
Rays Rumors
The Complexity Of Trading Kevin Kiermaier
The Rays entered the offseason with just two players making more than $10MM per year, and in case you’ve been hiding in a cave far, far from the Internet, they already traded one of them this week. With Blake Snell now in San Diego, rumors immediately shifted to the team’s other most expensive player: center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that Kiermaier is “next on the trade block” for the Rays, although while the Rays may still hope to shed additional payroll, that’s too simplistic a characterization of what should be a more layered discussion.
First up in any discussion of the 30-year-old Kiermaier will always be his defensive wizardry. His penchant for highlight-reel dives and wall-scaling home run robberies is well known. Frequent diving catches don’t make someone a defensive master, necessarily; some players will need to dive on plays that shouldn’t be that difficult in order to compensate for a poorly run route or a bad read off the bat. That’s rarely the case with Kiermaier, though, who has ranked in the 89th percentile or better in each of the past four seasons by measure of Statcast’s “Outfield Jump” metric. Kiermaier has been in the 91st percentile or better in Statcast’s average sprint speed in each of those four years as well.
Dating back to 2017, Kiermaier ranks fourth among big league players, at any position, with 58 Defensive Runs Saved. Mookie Betts is the only outfielder who tops him. Matt Chapman and Andrelton Simmons, both infielders by trade, are the other two. That trio, on average, has played 815 more innings in the field during that stretch than Kiermaier, however. As such, there’s a very real argument that on a per-inning/per-game basis, Kiermaier is the most impactful defensive player in baseball. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric dates back to 2017, and as with DRS, Kiermaier is elite. He ranks fifth among 487 outfielders in that time despite more limited chances in the field.
Of course, those limited chances are part of the knock on Kiermaier. He’s played in just 364 games and taken 1427 plate appearances over the past four seasons combined. While his reckless abandon in the outfield surely dings him up from time to time and requires the occasional off day — particularly given his home park’s artificial surface — that hasn’t been his major issue. Kiermaier has sustained a fractured hip (2017) and a torn ligament in his thumb (2018) while sliding on the basepaths in recent years, both of which have cost him months of action.
It’s somewhat remarkable that the hip injury didn’t have a lasting impact on Kiermaier’s superlative glovework, but it’s certainly fair to wonder to what extent injuries have impacted him at the plate. Consider that from 2014-17, Kiermaier was not only a world-class defender but also an above-average hitter, posting a composite .262/.319/.431 batting line. From 2018-20, however, he’s managed just a .222/.286/.386 slash in 1006 plate appearances.
His 2017 production actually improved upon returning from the hip fracture, so perhaps that shouldn’t be viewed as a major contributor to his offensive decline. The torn ligament in his thumb, however, which occurred in April 2018, may have had a considerably more adverse impact on his output at the plate. Hand and wrist issues that impact a player’s grip can wreak havoc on their mechanics and their production. Perhaps it’s coincidental, but since 2018, Kiermaier’s strikeout rate has jumped five percent and his ground-ball rate has steadily risen.
An optimistic trade partner might think Kiermaier could still return to his ways as an average or better hitter. He walked at a career-best 12.6 percent clip in 2020’s shortened slate of games, which certainly bodes well. Even when accounting for the fact that Kiermaier walked just once in 57 postseason plate appearances, that’s 21 walks in 216 total trips to the plate in 2020 — a 9.7 percent clip that would match his career-high and easily top the 6.5 percent mark he carried into the season.
Kiermaier has also improved his hard-hit and barreled-ball rates over the past couple seasons despite not having much production to show for it. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) — a metric that reflects what a player’s overall offensive output should be, based on frequency and quality of contact — from 2019-20 is right in line with his 2015-17 levels.
Given that, there’s plenty of reason to consider Kiermaier a strong bounceback candidate. Even if he doesn’t rebound at the plate, any team would know it’s getting an elite defender with plus speed to contribute on the bases. The problem for interested parties, of course, is that Kiermaier is paid at a higher rate than a glove-first player of that nature would typically be compensated. He’s owed $26MM over the next two seasons: $11.5MM in 2021, $12.5MM in 2022 and at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM option for the 2023 season.
It’s not an overly burdensome contract, but at a time when teams throughout the league are scaling back on payroll, it’s a notable chunk of cash. That’s all the more true when Kiermaier’s skill set is similar to that of free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. — a player who may not command as much as the two years and $26MM still owed to Kiermaier. Bradley would cost only money for a team seeking a center field boost, and while he’s not a great offensive player, he does have a steadier and more productive track record.
Also problematic is that while Tampa Bay’s trade of Snell to the Padres brought a huge prospect haul, a trade of Kiermaier might resemble more of a salary dump in terms of its return. Some interested teams may even ask the Rays to kick in a bit of cash to cover a portion of the remaining money owed to the 2015 Platinum Glover. For a player of his status in the organization, a straight salary dump would be a tougher sell both to the fans and to the clubhouse.
Given all that context, it’s perhaps not surprising to see MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweet that despite Kiermaier’s availability on the trade market, the chances of a deal coming together “aren’t great.” The Rays have already weakened their 2021 roster by trading away Snell and declining Charlie Morton’s option, and jettisoning Kiermaier for nothing of immediate value (on the heels of a World Series run) would only further diminish their hope of a return postseason bid.
Granted, some of the dollars that had been earmarked for Kiermaier could be invested back into the free-agent pool, but it’s extremely difficult to find a player with Kiermaier’s upside on the open market with the limited resources they’d save in dealing him away. Kiermaier has still topped seven WAR over the past three seasons combined, even with his bat on the decline, and in that aforementioned 2014-17 peak, he checked in at 21 wins above replacement.
Not only is Kiermaier’s ceiling higher than any replacement the Rays would bring into the fold, but the possibility of trading him for pennies on the dollar, only to watch him rebound and send his value soaring, looms larger in this instance. It’s a very different situation than moving Snell when his value was much closer to (or arguably even at) its apex.
I’d expect plenty of rumors regarding the possibility of a Kiermaier trade between now and Opening Day, but for all these reasons (and likely quite a few more), it’s a complicated scenario that should by no means be considered a given. For debate’s sake, let’s tack a poll onto the end of this breakdown and open it for discussion in the comments (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users):
Phillies Acquire Jose Alvarado In Three-Team Trade With Rays, Dodgers
The Rays, Phillies, and Dodgers are in combination on a three-team deal, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). As part of the swap, left-hander Jose Alvarado will go from the Rays to the Phillies, and minor league first baseman Dillon Paulson and a player to be named later or cash considerations will go from the Dodgers to Tampa Bay. The Phils announced that left-hander Garrett Cleavinger has been sent to Los Angeles to complete the Dodgers’ end of the trade.
Alvarado is the most well-known name involved, and the southpaw will join a Philadelphia bullpen that posted dire numbers in 2020. At his best during four seasons in Tampa, Alvarado was a major weapon for the Rays, most notably during a 2018 season that saw him post a 2.39 ERA and 11.3 K/9 over 64 relief innings and 70 games.
Injuries limited Alvarado in both 2019 and 2020, however, as he managed only a 5.08 ERA, 1.58 K/BB rate and 39 innings. While Alvarado still missed a lot of bats to the tune of a 12.0 K/9, a lack of control (7.6 BB/9) counter-acted those punchouts. Shoulder inflammation limited Alvarado to only nine regular-season innings in 2020, but he was able to return for the ALCS and toss 1 2/3 scoreless innings to contribute to the Rays’ victory over the Astros.
Alvarado is still only 25 years old and is controllable for three seasons via the arbitration process, so the Phillies are hoping there’s plenty of upside left. Beyond a general need for any sort of bullpen help, Philadelphia was also particularly short on left-handers, so Alvarado immediately becomes the club’s top southpaw option. Alvarado has been just about equally good against left-handed (career .600 OPS) and right-handed (.622 OPS) batters during his four MLB seasons.
In moving Alvarado, the Rays open up a 40-man roster spot that was needed for the completion of the Blake Snell trade with the Padres, so that deal could be officially announced soon. There is also a financial element to the swap from Tampa Bay’s end, as Alvarado was projected to earn roughly $1.05MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility.
Cleavinger made his MLB debut in 2020, tossing two-thirds of an inning in a single appearances for Philadelphia. A third-round pick for the Orioles in the 2015 draft, Cleavinger was dealt to the Phillies as part of the Jeremy Hellickson trade in July 2017. Working exclusively as a reliever throughout his pro career, Cleavinger has a 4.08 ERA, 2.26 K/BB rate, and 12.0 K/9 over 220 1/3 innings in the Baltimore and Philadelphia farm system, though he has never pitched at the Triple-A level.
Paulson was a 13th-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2018 draft, and the USC product has hit .253/.373/.464 over 778 plate appearances during his brief pro career, reaching the high-A level in 2019.
Rays GM Erik Neander Discusses Blake Snell Trade
Tampa Bay’s rotation took a serious hit this week when the team shipped left-hander Blake Snell to San Diego, and general manager Erik Neander admitted Tuesday (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that the Rays “are not as good a team without him.” Despite that, Neander insisted to Topkin and other reporters that the Rays, who won the American League in 2020, still plan to compete for a championship.
“Our goal is to win a World Series,” Neander said. “Want to make that that very, very clear. … It’s our philosophy, it’s our belief that the best way for us to achieve that goal is to construct playoff-caliber teams year in, year out. For every team that we put out there to have a shot. To avoid the valleys. To not take any years off.”
The Rays seem to be of the belief that the return they received for Snell will help them continue to push for a title for the long haul. On paper, they did get an impressive package for Snell, acquiring three prospects – Luis Patino, Cole Wilcox and Blake Hunt – as well as catcher Francisco Mejia. As Neander suggested, however, it’s tough to see them as a better team right now in the wake of the trade. Even before losing Snell, the Rays said goodbye to right-hander Charlie Morton in free agency. Their only notable free-agent addition of the offseason has been righty Michael Wacha, who had immense difficulty keeping runs off the board with the Cardinals and Mets from 2019-20.
It’s anyone’s guess how the Rays will fill out their 2021 rotation after Wacha, Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough, but they are “in aggressive pursuit of another starter,” Topkin writes. Getting rid of Snell’s three-year, $39MM contract gives the team some money to spend on a short-term deal in free agency if it’s willing, notes Topkin, who adds that the Rays should have a payroll in the $60MM range. The Rays also boast the game’s No. 1 farm system, so they could try to trade for starting help.
While the Rays don’t look as strong as they did a couple months ago, Neander said, “We have a lot of confidence in the group that we have here and we’ve got a lot of time left to continue to build this club out and to get this puzzle where we want it.” Although their budget is at the bottom of the league, Neander & Co. have found a way to keep the Rays afloat on a regular basis. However, Neander acknowledged that there’s “a lot of work to do” with Snell out of the mix.
Padres Acquire Blake Snell From Rays
TODAY: The Padres have officially announced the trade.
DECEMBER 28: The Padres have an agreement in place to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays, report Dennis Lin, Josh Tolentino and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). Luis Patiño, Francisco Mejía and prospects Blake Hunt and Cole Wilcox are headed back to Tampa Bay. The deal is pending review of medicals. R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports had first reported the two sides were in discussions about a potential Snell trade.
It’s a shocking, out-of-the-blue acquisition for San Diego. The Rays were known to be open to offers on Snell, but there had been no indication prior to tonight any deal was particularly close. Snell, 28, is one of the sport’s best pitchers. The 2018 American League Cy Young winner, he has posted a 2.85 ERA across 337.2 innings over the past three seasons. Along the way, he’s struck out 32.1% of opposing hitters, holding them to a .206/.279/.350 slash line. This past season, Snell worked to a 3.24 ERA/4.35 FIP with his typical strikeout and walk numbers.
Snell becomes the second big-ticket starting pitcher acquired by the Padres within the past six months. San Diego picked up Mike Clevinger from the Indians prior to the August 31 trade deadline. Clevinger, though, required Tommy John surgery after the season, leaving the Padres looking to add to their rotation. They’ve done so with a bang, picking up perhaps the top starter available on the trade market. Snell will join Dinelson Lamet, who’s coming off a Cy Young caliber 2020, at the top of a rotation that also features Zach Davies and Chris Paddack and should soon welcome top prospect MacKenzie Gore, to say nothing of fellow prized prospect Adrián Morejón.
The Padres are clearly aiming to push the reigning World Series champion Dodgers in the NL West in both 2021 and beyond. In addition to that high-end rotation, San Diego boasts an enviable position player core including Fernando Tatís Jr., Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham and a resurgent Eric Hosmer. It’s a win-now strike, but it’s not solely a move for next year. Snell comes with three seasons of remaining control under the terms of the extension he signed with Tampa Bay in March 2019. He’ll make a bargain $10.5MM salary next season, with respective salaries of $12.5MM and $16MM the following two years (his 2023 figure has potential escalators based on future Cy Young finishes).
Snell’s combination of high-end talent and cheap, long-term control meant the Padres had no choice but to offer an elite package to pry him from Tampa. All four players headed back to the Rays are highly-regarded youngsters, headlined by the 21-year-old Patiño. A 2016 international signee out of Colombia, the extremely athletic right-hander quickly emerged as one of the game’s best prospects. Each of Baseball America, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen placed him among the top twenty farmhands in the sport entering 2020. He draws praise for a mid-high 90’s fastball and plus slider and shows the makings of a plus changeup and above-average control, per Baseball America.
Patiño made his MLB debut, mostly working out of the bullpen, in 2020. His first 17.1 MLB innings didn’t go well, as he struggled to throw strikes and only managed a 5.19 ERA. But Patiño had only thrown 7.2 innings above A-ball entering the season and surely would’ve been given more minor-league time in 2020 had there been a season. He was nothing short of dominant in the low minors from 2018-19 and is a high-upside arm who could contribute for Tampa Bay in the near future. Patiño has yet to accrue a full year of service and comes with six seasons of team control. If he were to stick in the majors for good, he’d be controllable through 2026.
Hunt, too, has emerged as a top 100 caliber prospect, tweets Longenhagen. The 22-year-old catcher has “been hitting to all fields with power” and shown high-end arm strength in recent workouts, he adds. Hunt placed just 20th among Padre farmhands in Baseball America’s midseason system rankings but seems to have turned a corner in recent months. In 2019, he slashed .255/.331/.381 over 376 plate appearances in Low-A.
While Hunt may have the brighter long-term future behind the plate, Mejía isn’t far removed from being seen as an elite catching talent himself. The 25-year-old ranked among Baseball America’s top 35 overall prospects every year between 2017 and 2019 and headlined the Padres-Indians 2018 Brad Hand blockbuster. He comes with question marks about his aptitude behind the dish and has compiled just a .225/.282/.386 slash line in 362 career plate appearances over the past four seasons.
As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined, though, it’s easy to understand the appeal he holds to Tampa Bay. Mejía’s a switch-hitter who demonstrated elite bat-to-ball skills in the minors and has a top-of-the-scale arm. Given his lack of MLB track record, there’s more risk in his profile than there may have been at the peak of his prospect status, but Mejía carries some long-term intrigue and can immediately step into the Rays’ catching mix with Mike Zunino. Mejía has two-plus years of service and can be controlled through the 2024 season. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next winter.
Rounding out the return is Wilcox, a 2020 draftee out of the University of Georgia. Selected in the third round, Wilcox was generally seen as a first-round talent who fell because of a high bonus demand as a draft-eligible sophomore. The Padres signed the 21-year-old for an overslot $3.3MM signing bonus. The right-hander has a high-90’s fastball with a pair of promising secondaries in his slider and changeup, Baseball America noted in their pre-draft scouting report. Wilcox was ranked twelfth among San Diego farmhands by BA.
From a broader perspective, the trade is symbolic of the respective team-building approaches of the two organizations. Padres GM A.J. Preller has shown a willingness to make bold acquisitions both through trade and free agency, leveraging the treasure trove of prospects the club accrued throughout their rebuild to support an emergent core of homegrown talent. The Padres still boast plenty of talent in the system they could leverage for future additions to the MLB roster, with the bullpen standing out as a potential target area.
Altogether, the addition of Snell cements the Friars alongside the Dodgers and Braves as the top three teams in the National League. The Snell acquisition brings the San Diego payroll to a projected $141MM after factoring in arbitration raises, per Roster Resource. That leaves a little bit of wiggle room under last year’s season-opening payroll of $157MM (before prorating) if ownership is willing to repeat that level of spending.
The Rays, meanwhile, continue to operate without regard to name recognition, showing a willingness to move anyone if they can recoup what they deem sufficient value. Tampa Bay continuously churns the major league roster while prioritizing long-term control and cost certainty. That’s helped them compile a farm system that was generally regarded as the league’s strongest even before today’s haul of prospects.
Between Snell and Charlie Morton, however, the reigning American League champs have moved on from two of their top three starters this winter. Tampa Bay now figures to add pitching this offseason as they look to compete with the Yankees and hold off the Blue Jays at the top of the AL East. With Snell’s contract off the books, the Rays’ payroll is down to a projected $57MM, per Roster Resource, $17MM shy of last season’s opening payroll of $74MM (before prorating).
This post was originally published on December 27th.
Rays To Sign Kevan Smith
TODAY: The deal is done, as per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).
DECEMBER 23: The Rays are nearing a deal with catcher Kevan Smith, as first reported by MLBtransactionsdaily and confirmed by MLBTR. It’s expected to be a minor-league arrangement with an invitation to MLB spring training.
Smith, 32, spent this past season with the Rays after signing a minor-league pact last offseason. He was twice selected to the big league roster but only picked up 38 plate appearances. While Smith hit well in that limited time, the Rays outrighted him off the roster earlier this offseason.
The veteran backstop has earned big league playing time in each of the past five years. Over 746 career plate appearances with the White Sox, Angels and Rays, Smith has slashed a solid .272/.321/.384 and hit 13 home runs. That’s better offensive output than that of most catchers, but Smith has never rated as a particularly good defender. He’s gotten below-average marks for his pitch framing, per Statcast, and has only thrown out 15.4% of attempted basestealers throughout his career.
There’s seemingly plenty of opportunity for Smith to win another big league job with a strong showing in spring training. The Rays lost Michael Pérez on waivers to the Pirates in October. Mike Zunino and prospect Ronaldo Hernandez, the latter of whom has yet to reach Double-A, are the only catchers on the Rays’ 40-man roster at the moment.
Kevin Kiermaier: Trade Candidate?
- Blake Snell may not be the last high-profile veteran the Rays move in a trade this winter. Center fielder Kevin Kiermaier is now on the block, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests. It’s unknown if teams are interested in the soon-to-be 31-year-old Kiermaier, but even if they are, the three-time Gold Glove winner is not going to bring back a big-time return after a third straight below-average offensive season. With a guaranteed $26MM left on his contract (including a $2.5MM buyout for 2023), Kiermaier doesn’t possess a team-friendly deal.
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Blake Snell Trade
Not far removed from their first playoff season since 2006, the Padres have dominated headlines in Major League Baseball over the past couple days. They agreed to sign highly touted Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim on Monday, and it’s possible they’ll follow it up by acquiring 2020 NL Cy Young finalist Yu Darvish from the Cubs before the day is out. And prior to reeling in Kim (and potentially Darvish), the Padres made a major addition to their rotation when they agreed to land left-hander Blake Snell from the Rays late Sunday night.
In Snell, the Padres are getting a 28-year-old former AL Cy Young winner (2018) who’s due a more-than-reasonable $39MM through 2023. Snell wasn’t able to replicate the numbers from his career season over the past two years, but he was hardly a slouch during that span. In his last season in Tampa Bay, which won the AL pennant, Snell threw 50 innings and put up a 3.24 ERA/4.35 FIP with 11.34 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a personal-best 49.2 percent groundball rate, all while continuing to average upward of 95 mph on his fastball. The Padres’ hope is that Snell (and perhaps Darvish, if they’re able to complete that trade) will help replace righty Mike Clevinger – a blockbuster 2020 pickup who will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November.
Meanwhile, although some may roll their eyes at the small-budget Rays for trading a reasonably priced, high-end starter in the wake of a World Series-bound year, it does appear they’ll receive a significant haul in this swap. The club’s slated to get two promising righties – Luis Patino and Cole Wilcox – as well as a pair of young catchers in Francisco Mejia and Blake Hunt.
The 21-year-old Patino, who made a brief major league debut last season, was Baseball America’s 18th-best prospect entering the campaign; Wilcox was a third-round pick in last summer’s draft, but he was seen as a first-round talent – which led the Padres to give him a record bonus worth $3.3MM; Mejia was a star prospect in his own right in earlier years, though the 25-year-old hasn’t established himself as a quality major leaguer since he debuted in 2017; and Hunt, 22, looks like a top 100-caliber prospect now, per Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs.
All said, this looks like another win-now move for San Diego, which could emerge as a serious championship contender in 2021. On the other hand, in light of this deal, it’s easy to say the Rays will take a step back next year. However, it appears they got an impressive return, and considering the work the Rays’ front office has done with few financial resources, it may be wise to give them the benefit of the doubt.
How would you grade the trade? (Poll links for app users: Padres, Rays)
Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
A unique set of challenges faced anyone running a Major League franchise in 2020, between dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic and then the difficulties involved in playing games during the delayed-then-shortened season. Nevertheless, it seemed like only a certain amount of slack was granted the sport’s managers and front office leaders (whether that top title was president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, etc.) through the turbulent year, as we still saw a number of teams make changes either in the dugout or at the top of the baseball ops department.
As such, it’s fair to assume that a “normal” amount of pressure to put a winning — or championship-winning — team on the field will be the same in 2021 as in any usual season, even if 2021 is already looking it may have its own share of abnormality. That means that for managers and executives heading into the last guaranteed year of their contracts, job security will likely be on the line in the coming months.
Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for information on the various contractual details of team personnel, though this list may not be complete. Some teams don’t publicly reveal contract lengths of managers or front office execs, so it’s possible some of these names might be locked up beyond 2021 whether due to the original terms of their current deals or due to extensions that haven’t been announced.
Astros: Originally signed to a one-year deal with a club option for 2021, Dusty Baker saw Houston exercise that option last summer, lining Baker up for his 24th season running a Major League dugout. Recent comments from Baker indicate that the 71-year-old is taking something of a year-by-year approach to his future, though if the Astros again reach the postseason, one would imagine the team would certainly have interest in retaining Baker for 2022. A longer-term extension seems unlikely, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if at least another club option (or even a mutual option) was tacked onto Baker’s deal to give both sides some flexibility going forward.
Athletics: While major postseason success continues to elude the team, Oakland has reached the playoffs in each of the last three years. This makes six postseason appearances for Melvin in 10 years managing the A’s, and it seems likely the team will discuss another extension for Melvin as he enters the final year of his current contract. While Billy Beane’s possible departure would naturally have a major impact on the Athletics, the likelihood of longtime executive and current GM David Forst taking over the baseball operations department would probably mean that Melvin would be welcomed back.
Blue Jays: Charlie Montoyo is entering the last guaranteed year of his original three-year contract, and the Jays hold a club option on Montoyo’s services for 2022. That option could be exercised to give Montoyo a bit more security as a reward for leading Toronto to the playoffs last year, though expectations are certainly higher for the 2021 team. It should also be noted that there hasn’t yet been any official confirmation that president/CEO Mark Shapiro has signed a new contract with the team after his five-year deal ran out after last season, but last October, Shapiro seemed to imply that a new deal was all but complete.
Braves: After going from interim manager to full-time manager following the 2016 season, Brian Snitker has twice been signed to extensions — most recently last February, when Atlanta turned its 2021 club option on Snitker into a guaranteed year. Snitker has led the Braves to three straight NL East titles and the team fell one game shy of the NL pennant last October, so Snitker seems like a prime candidate for another extension prior to Opening Day.
Diamondbacks: 2020 was an overall disappointing year for a D’Backs team that was aiming for the postseason, but team president/CEO Derrick Hall indicated that the organization wasn’t planning to make any wholesale changes due to the season’s unusual nature. This bodes well for manager Torey Lovullo as he enters the last year of his contract, and it seems possible Arizona could add another year to Lovullo’s deal just so he can avoid lame-duck status.
Mariners: Both GM Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais were in the final year of their contracts when both inked extensions with Seattle in July 2018. The terms of those extensions weren’t known, but 2021 would be the final guaranteed year for both if the extensions were three-year deals like their original contracts, though it’s possible Dipoto and Servais each got more security than just a three-year pact. The Mariners have mostly been in rebuild mode since those extensions were signed, and with the team only starting to deliver on some of the young talent amassed in the farm system, ownership could give Dipoto (and quite possibly Servais) more time to see if they can finally get the M’s back to the playoffs. Considering the previous extensions weren’t announced until midseason, we might not know Dipoto/Servais’ fate for some time — and if the Mariners get off to a particularly disappointing start, changes might be in the offing.
Marlins: One of few holdovers from Jeffrey Loria’s ownership, Don Mattingly was signed to a two-year extension following the 2019 season that contained a club option for 2022. The young Marlins reached the postseason last season, so Mattingly has a good case to at least get his option exercised at some point this year, and another extension could well be discussed if CEO Derek Jeter and GM Kim Ng are satisfied with the team’s progress. It can’t hurt that Ng knows Mattingly well from her past days an assistant general manager with the Yankees and Dodgers.
Mets: The winds of change have swept through the Mets organization this winter, yet Luis Rojas wasn’t affected, as team president Sandy Alderson announced that Rojas will remain in the dugout for 2021. Making the move from quality control coach to manager after Carlos Beltran’s quick resignation last winter, Rojas signed a two-year deal with club options for both 2022 and 2023. Expectations are definitely higher for Rojas under the Steve Cohen regime, but given all of the tumult of the 2020 season, Cohen and Alderson (plus newly-hired GM Jared Porter) seem interested in seeing what they actually have in Rojas before deciding on whether a new manager is required.
Orioles: According to The Athletic’s Dan Connolly, “one industry source said it’s believed” that 2021 is the last guaranteed year of manager Brandon Hyde’s contract, with the club possibly holding a club option for 2022. For that matter, executive VP/general manager Mike Elias didn’t have his contract terms revealed when he was hired in November 2018, so he could also be in his final guaranteed year if he hired Hyde on a similar timeline to his own deal. It doesn’t seem like a change is coming in either the front office or the dugout, as the Orioles are still at least a couple of years away from coming out of a complete rebuild. (Connolly makes the case that Hyde should be retained, as Hyde has had little to work with as manager and deserves a chance to steward an actual competitive roster.)
Rangers: Chris Woodward is entering the last guaranteed year of his deal, with the Rangers holding a club option for 2022. Woodward has a 100-122 record over his first two years in the Texas dugout, and since the team is looking to get younger in 2021, it doesn’t seem like an immediate return to contention is in the cards. If it’ll be a year or two until the Rangers are done with what seems like a mini-rebuild, it’s possible the team might decide to hire a new manager to herald them into something of a new era. Woodward may have to prove himself anew by shepherding this younger talent and keeping the Rangers as competitive as possible while they shuffle the roster.
Rays: Erik Neander’s contract terms aren’t known, and it has been over four years since his promotion to the GM/senior VP of baseball operations position in November 2016. So, if Neander’s new gig came with a five-year contract, it would be up at the end of 2021. He makes the list due to uncertainty over his contractual situation, but it doesn’t seem like Neander and the Rays will be parting company any time soon, especially after the club reached the 2020 World Series. Neander reportedly has no interest in leaving the organization and the Rays turned down the Angels’ request to speak with Neander about their GM opening earlier this offseason.
Reds: 2021 is the last guaranteed year for manager David Bell, with the Reds holding a team option for 2022. On the plus side for Bell, he led the team to the playoffs in 2020, though Cincinnati was swept out of the two-game wild card series without scoring even a single run against Atlanta pitching. The Reds spent a lot of money to build that winning team, yet now seem focused on moving salaries, with Raisel Iglesias dealt to the Angels and such names as Eugenio Suarez and Sonny Gray also coming up in trade talks. It remains to be seen if the Reds are trying to just trim payroll or make more wholesale cuts, and this direction could certainly impact Bell’s future if the club is already thinking rebuild.
Rockies: Now through six full seasons as Colorado’s GM, Jeff Bridich’s contractual status is unknown. Between the Rockies’ struggles over the last two years and the frosty relationship between Bridich and star third baseman Nolan Arenado, it would certainly seem like Bridich will need to get things turned around quickly. However, payroll cuts appear to be on the horizon, and the front office is also dealing with the loss of two-thirds of the analytics department. As has been noted many times in the past, Rockies owner Dick Monfort tends to give his employees lots of opportunities, but if Bridich’s contract is up any time soon, one wonders if Monfort might feel a change is necessary.
Yankees: While no official statement has been made, owner Hal Steinbrenner clearly stated after the season that manager Aaron Boone will be returning in 2021, so it’s safe to assume the Yankees have exercised their club option on Boone. There hasn’t been any buzz about an extension, and until then, there will be plenty of media focus on Boone’s lame-duck status. Boone has a 236-148 record and three postseason appearances in his three seasons as manager, but as always in the Bronx, the focus is on playoff success — the Yankees have only made it as far the ALCS once during Boone’s tenure. Anything short of a World Series appearance could spell the end of Boone’s stint as manager.
5 Teams That Could Want Both Snell & Kiermaier
- Since the Rays are open to at least listening to trade offers for Blake Snell, ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield adds an interesting wrinkle to the trade speculation — listing which five teams could conceivably acquire both Snell and Kevin Kiermaier in the same trade, thus allowing Tampa Bay to unload even more payroll. Schoenfield’s five clubs have needs in both the rotation and in center field, or perhaps in the outfield in general in the cases of the Angels or Padres. For those teams, Schoenfield opines that their current center fielders (Mike Trout and Trent Grisham) could be moved to a corner outfield slot to accommodate Kiermaier.
