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AL East Notes: Orioles, Davis, Rays

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The Yankees’ lack of a major signing this winter won’t give them any leverage in the YES Network dispute with Comcast, Bob Raissman of the Daily News writes.  That may come as a surprising take given their recent acquisition of Starlin Castro, but Raissman feels that the shortstop still isn’t enough to move the needle significantly for the Bombers.  In fact, Raissman wonders if the Yankees’ relative inaction could lead fair weather fans to switch over to the Mets.

Here’s today’s glance at the AL East:

  • The Orioles offered Chris Davis precisely $154MM over seven years, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.  Now, GM Dan Duquette says the team is looking at other options.  Talks have not been terminated, but Duquette implied it would be up to Davis’ agent Scott Boras to revisit negotiations.  The 29-year-old Davis is the top power bat on the open market, as he leads the Majors in homers over the past three seasons.
  • The Rays are suddenly holding a hot commodity thanks to their pitching depth, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that of the three teams that are willing to move good, young starting pitching, the Rays might be the most likely to do it.
  • It’s not a big surprise, but the Rays found at the Winter Meetings that “everyone” has interest in Gold Glove-winning center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, Topkin writes.  This past season, Kiermaier led the majors with 42 Defensive Runs Saved.
  • The Rays wanted to bring Daniel Nava back on a minor league deal, but it appears that he’s going to sign a similar deal elsewhere, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  The Angels and Padres are believed to be in the mix to sign the outfielder, according to a source who spoke with SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo.  Nava, 32, is a free agent for the first time in his career.

Rosenthal On Leake, Orioles, Cubs, Inciarte

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Pitcher Mike Leake is willing to take significantly less to play at home in Arizona, according to sources who spoke with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  However, D’Backs COO Tony La Russa says it’s “probably unlikely” that the team will sign him.

“It’s gone back and forth,” La Russa said. “Getting Shelby (Miller) gives us a (full) rotation. I think it’s difficult because when somebody wants to pitch for you and you really like the person, you want to try and work it out. But it’s complicated and probably unlikely.”

Here’s more from Rosenthal’s column:

  • If Chris Davis goes elsewhere, the Orioles will look to bring in a left-handed bat.  Rosenthal hears that Pedro Alvarez, Gerardo Parra and Will Venable are a few of the hitters that interest Baltimore brass.  The Orioles are also likely to explore the free agent market for a starting pitcher.
  • Many have been critical of the Orioles’ farm system depth, but GM Dan Duquette has rejected the notion that they are thin.  Duquette could put his money where his mouth is by trading for one of the Rockies’ outfielders, Rosenthal writes, but they would likely ask for Colorado native Kevin Gausman in return.
  • The Cubs are “one of a number teams” that inquired on Ender Inciarte after he went from the D’Backs to the Braves.  Still, they’re more likely to go after a starting pitcher by offering up Jorge Soler or Javier Baez.  Inciarte has five years of club control and can be a strong defensive center fielder, although he also has extensive experience at both corner positions. The 25-year-old was largely unheralded as a prospect but has batted a combined .292/.329/.386 in his first two Major League seasons, including a stellar .303/.338/.408 line in 2015.
  • The Padres, Indians, and Rays could all still move a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Rosenthal writes, and the Rays might be the most likely of the three.  Tampa Bay has three starters who could be solid No. 2 guys in a rotation: righty Jake Odorizzi and lefties Drew Smyly and Matt Moore.  Alex Cobb could also be conceivably moved, but he is affordable and under club control for the next two years.

Outfield Notes: Royals, Rockies, Ozuna, Ruggiano, Nava

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We’ve been waiting for the outfield market to kick into high gear, and it seems set to do just that with Jason Heyward reportedly going off the board to the Cubs. As ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes, the action is now on Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon. But a solid group of other players — including Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, and Austin Jackson — is also still available. And t

Here’s the latest:

  • The Royals have had contact with the Rockies on their three potentially-available outfielders, per Crasnick. It seems that Carlos Gonzalez carries by far the highest asking price, per Crasnick’s report, but the other two Colorado outfielders reportedly on the block — Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson — are cheaper and have greater control rights. In particular, Dickerson has put up some huge offensive numbers and won’t even hit arbitration until next year. While he missed time last year with plantar fasciitis and fractured ribs, he still looks to be a highly intriguing asset.
  • Kansas City still is looking at Gordon as its first option, though, Crasnick adds. The club would probably turn to the next tier of free agency if it can’t pull off a Gordon re-signing or a trade. MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan notes on Twitter that the team has “cast a wide net” in its search for outfield help.
  • It seems less and less likely that the Marlins will end up dealing center fielder Marcell Ozuna this winter, as Crasnick tweets that the club has “aimed high” in its negotiations on the youngster. Miami has sought quality, young MLB pitchers — he mentions Yordano Ventura, Taijuan Walker, and Danny Salazar — and it’s not clear whether it will be amenable to settling for less.
  • The Rangers have interest in free agent outfielder Justin Ruggiano as a right-handed depth piece, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Ruggiano is a very tough out for opposing southpaws, creating a potential fit with the heavily left-handed Texas lineup.
  • Outfielder/first baseman Daniel Nava appears close to striking a deal with a team other than the Rays, despite Tampa Bay’s interest, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Nava, soon to turn 33, had a tough season last year, but at his best is a high-OBP switch-hitter.

Trade Talks Around Jake McGee Intensifying

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The Rays’ trade discussions about left-handed relief ace Jake McGee have intensified over the past 24 to 48 hours, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). McGee and teammate Brad Boxberger have drawn significant trade interest, and several have suggested that one of the two is likely to be moved. McGee makes a bit more sense as a trade candidate, given MLBTR’s $4.7MM salary projection (Boxberger is not yet arbitration eligible) and the fact that he has only two years of club control remaining to Boxberger’s four.

Morosi tweets that the Dodgers — who are reportedly moving on from their pursuit of Aroldis Chapman in light of his domestic violence allegations — make sense as a landing spot, given president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s familiarity with McGee (Friedman was formerly the Rays’ GM). The Astros have been linked to Tampa Bay’s relievers as well, though they’ve reportedly agreed to a deal to acquire Ken Giles from Philadelphia, so perhaps they’re no longer in the market for top-tier relievers. The Twins are also known to be looking for left-handed relief help, and indications late in this week’s Winter Meetings were that Minnesota isn’t likely to make a play for top-of-the-market free agent lefties.

McGee, who will pitch the bulk of next season at age 29, missed the beginning of the 2015 campaign recovering from offseason surgery on his left elbow and was sidelined again in September by a torn meniscus. He was brilliant as ever when healthy enough to take to the mound, though, firing 37 1/3 innings of 2.41 ERA ball with 11.6 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 38.9 percent ground-ball rate. He has a collective 2.07 ERA with 138 strikeouts against just 22 unintentional walks over the past two seasons — a span of 108 2/3 innings — and averaged better than 96 mph on his fastball from 2013-14 (94.5 mph in 2015). He’d be a boost to any club’s bullpen and should fetch the Rays a considerable return if a trade is ultimately agreed upon.

Phillies Likely To Select Tyler Goeddel First In Rule 5 Draft

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The Phillies are likely to take Rays outfielder Tyler Goeddel with the first pick in Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft, MLB.com’s Jim Callis writes, citing his colleague Todd Zolecki. The Rule 5 takes place at 9:00 Central on Thursday.

Callis names Mariners outfielder Jabari Blash, Astros lefty Raymin Guduan, Twins righty Zack Jones, Astros catcher Roberto Pena, Cardinals righty Luis Perdomo and Diamondbacks righty Nick Sarianides as potential selections. Compared to the June draft, however, there’s generally far less consensus about potential Rule 5 picks, due to the restrictions on which players can be selected. (Here’s a primer on how the Rule 5 Draft works.)

Goeddel is the brother of Mets reliever Erik Goeddel. Callis notes that the younger Goeddel has good raw power and speed, and a strong arm that could play in right field. The 23-year-old hit .279/.350/.433 in 533 plate appearances for Double-A Montgomery in 2015, hitting 12 home runs while swiping 28 bases.

If Goeddel is indeed the Phillies’ pick, he could join their top selection last year, Odubel Herrera, in the Philadelphia outfield. Other key picks from that draft included Delino DeShields, Mark Canha, Sean Gilmartin and J.R. Graham.

Infield Notes: Zobrist, Davis, Lind, Moreland, Walker, Angels, Flowers, Reynolds, Matsuda

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The Mets are “pretty optimistic” of landing free agent infielder/outfielder Ben Zobrist, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets. New York expects a decision today or tomorrow, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). While the team has yet to formally offer a fourth year, says Sherman, it would work out a fourth year if Zobrist indicates he’d like to join the club.

Here are some more updates on the market for infielders:

  • The Orioles are meeting today with agent Scott Boras regarding free agent first baseman Chris Davis, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports on Twitter. As Kubatko notes, Boras also represents Pedro Alvarez, who could theoretically also represent an option for Baltimore — at least if the team misses on Davis.
  • Brewers first baseman Adam Lind appears to have a broad potential market, with Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweeting that at least 12 clubs have “checked in” on him.
  • One such team is the Orioles, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter), who says that Baltimore has inquired on both Lind and Mitch Moreland of the Rangers. But the O’s don’t appear to “match up” with Milwaukee on Lind, Haudricourt adds via Twitter.
  • There’s no realistic possibility of an extension between Neil Walker and the Pirates, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports. GM Neal Huntington says that he feels the team has sufficient internal options — and acquisition possibilities — to “back-fill if Walker is dealt.
  • The Pirates’ talks with the Rangers on Moreland have “cooled” but are still alive, Biertempfel further reports.
  • Though there’s continuing interest, the Angels don’t appear likely to land Howie Kendrick in free agency, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. The veteran second baseman is probably going to be too expensive given the team’s other needs, per Fletcher.
  • The Angels could look to the Diamondbacks’ stockpile of young infielders to fill one of the club’s potential openings, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times suggests. Los Angeles could offer starting pitching in return.
  • Free agent backstop Tyler Flowers is reportedly deciding between the Yankees, Braves, and Rays, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter links). He’d potentially serve as Brian McCann’s backup in New York, says Hoch. That could, in theory at least, make fellow backstops Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine available to utilize in a trade. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reported on the Braves interest this morning via Twitter, saying that the club is considering Flowers in an effort to avoid over-exposing free agent addition A.J. Pierzynski. If Flowers goes to Atlanta, it would immediately raise yet more questions about the future of young receiver Christian Bethancourt.
  • Free agent slugger Mark Reynolds is drawing interest from the Rockies, Cardinals, Giants, and Pirates, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.
  • Among the teams with interest in Japanese third baseman Nobuhiro Matsuda are the White Sox and Padres, Heyman adds on Twitter.

Rays, Cubs Discussing Trade Involving Javier Baez

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9:05pm: The Cubs may be targeting Alex Cobb, Topkin tweets. The outstanding righty had his UCL replaced back in May and will obviously miss a good portion of the coming season. But he projects to earn just $4MM next year (an exact match for his 2015 salary) and would come with another cheap season of control thereafter.

5:45pm: Tampa Bay’s target in talks with Chicago is “definitely Baez,” Topkin tweets. He adds that the club is chatting with several other teams on deals at the moment.

Meanwhile, ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers tweets that Moore and Cobb appear to be more likely possibilities for the Cubs to pursue than is Archer, which is hardly surprising. He also says that, while relievers are “in play” in talks, the Cubs would “have to get a starter back.”

2:22am: The Cubs and Rays are in discussions about a deal that would send Javier Baez to Tampa in exchange for pitching, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  Topkin isn’t sure how developed the talks are, or if a trade is likely to happen.  On Sunday, 670TheScore.com’s Bruce Levine reported that Chicago and Tampa had been in talks.

Chicago has been looking for both starting pitching and bullpen help this offseason, and the Rays are a potential fit in either department.  On the relief side, Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger have drawn widespread interest from several teams looking to reinforce the back end of their bullpen, and the Cubs fit that description according to recent reports.

Tampa Bay has already dealt Nathan Karns to the Mariners but it’s possible the club could continue to trade from its starting pitching reserves.  One would think that it would take one of the Rays’ more established arms (Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly or possibly Erasmo Ramirez) to land a major power prospect like Baez, and it’s also probably safe to assume that Chris Archer continues to be unavailable in trade talks.

Baez was the ninth overall pick of the 2011 draft and a consensus top-seven prospect heading into the 2014 season.  He has yet to make an impact in his brief time at the MLB level, however, as Baez has posted a .201/.252/.346 slash line and 10 homers in 309 career plate appearances, with a whopping 119 strikeouts.  He struck out at a near-record rate in 2014, so while he improved in that department in 2015, Baez almost had nowhere to go but up.  That propensity for swinging and missing has also been apparent at the minor league level (426 K’s in 1678 PA) but Baez has also crushed minor league pitching to the tune of an .888 OPS and 89 homers.

Baez was drafted as a shortstop but has seen time at second and third as the Cubs have tried to find him a position amidst their other top youngsters (Kris Bryant and Addison Russell) and Starlin Castro.  With the Rays, Evan Longoria is locked into third and Logan Forsythe emerged at second last year, so Baez’s best fit is likely back at short, though they did just get Brad Miller from Seattle.  Baez could also see some time at DH or possibly even first, even how the Rays are traditionally flexible position-wise.

Indians Claim Joey Butler, Designate Jayson Aquino

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The Indians have claimed outfielder Joey Butler off waivers from the Rays, the team announced. Lefty Jayson Aquino was designated for assignment to create 40-man space.

Butler will be going into his age-30 campaign with less than 300 plate appearances to his name. But the vast majority of those came last year, when he put up a solid .276/.326/.416 batting line with eight home runs and five steals. He also drew solid marks on defense. On the whole, Butler looks like a plausible fourth outfielder and if nothing else could provide some insurance as Cleveland looks to add bats.

Aquino went to the Indians in a minor move at last year’s trade deadline. The 23-year-old spent all of last year at the High-A level, working to a strong 3.28 ERA in 137 1/3 innings with 5.6 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9. There have been a lot of travels already for the southpaw, who opened the year in the Blue Jays organization after previously being claimed from the Rockies.

Rays Have Made Extension Offer To Jake Odorizzi

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The Rays have offered right-hander Jake Odorizzi a contract extension, agent Jason Wood confirms to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links 1, 2, 3, 4). Topkin notes that the timing of the offer is interesting, because Odorizzi could also be part of trade talks with the Cubs as the Rays search for a hitter. (Presumably, if a contract is agreed to between the two sides, Odorizzi would want assurance that he won’t immediately be traded.)

Wood called Tampa Bay’s offer a “very nice initial offer,” says Topkin, adding that the agent said there are “lots of reasons” to continue the dialogue. Wood says there’s mutual interest and is working on a counter-offer for the Rays, whose initial offer is believed to include multiple option years, per Topkin. That’s been standard operating procedure for the Rays over the years, who locked up Evan Longoria, Matt Moore and Chris Archer to contracts that each include at least two option seasons early in each player’s career (albeit, earlier in their respective careers than Odorizzi is at present).

Odorizzi, 26 in March, has pitched well for the Rays in each of the past two seasons, though he missed some time in 2015 due to an oblique strain and was thus limited to 169 1/3 innings. Odorizzi doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging about 91 mph with his fastball, but he’s shown an ability to pick up strikeouts at an above-average clip nonetheless. Over his past 337 1/3 innings (2014-15), Odorizzi has a 3.74 ERA with 8.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. A pronounced fly-ball pitcher, Odorizzi does have a rather low 33.5 percent ground-ball rate in that time.

Originally acquired from the Royals in the James Shields/Wil Myers trade (though I submit that the trade should be referred to as the Wade Davis/Jake Odorizzi swap, personally), Odorizzi is not yet arbitration eligible and won’t be until next offseason. He’s controllable for another four years, so it stands to reason that the Rays would like to secure a pair of free agent years (if not more) in exchange for committing to him at this juncture.

Assuming he maintains his current trajectory, Odorizzi’s arbitration seasons could command as much as $20-25MM. And, as the free-agent market is beginning to show, the going rate for second- and even third starters is escalating closer to $20MM than ever before. Clearly, the Rays wouldn’t be interested in guaranteeing full market value this far in advance (no team would), so Wood and Odorizzi would have to make some form of concessions — probably in the overall cost the arbitration years and in the annual value of the free-agent seasons.

Were Odorizzi to agree to a long-term contract, his new deal would somewhat reset the market for pitchers in his service class. The only extension for a starting pitcher with between two and three years of service time in recent seasons was Corey Kluber’s five-year, $38.5MM deal last winter, but Kluber was noticeably older than Odorizzi and also coming off a Cy Young campaign, making his situation rather unique. Previous deals for pitchers in this service class (e.g. Yovani Gallardo, Derek Holland) were in the five-year, $30MM range, but those contracts are five years old now. Gio Gonazalez’s five-year, $42MM deal from 2012 somewhat surprisingly stands as the record for starters with between two and three years of service. It seems unlikely that the Rays would be keen on shelling out any sort of record deal for this service class, especially considering that one of the years in question is a pre-arbitration year (Gonzalez had Super Two status working in his favor).

A four-year pact with an option would lock in Odorizzi’s arbitration seasons and give the Rays an extra year of club control in exchange for delaying free agency by one season. That deal would still allow Odorizzi to hit the open market entering his age-31 season, though Tampa Bay typically seems to strive for multiple option years in these days.

Rangers Interested In Joe Kelly, Drew Smyly

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The Rangers have spoken to the Red Sox about right-hander Joe Kelly, reports MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter), who adds that Rays lefty Drew Smyly is another potential target for the Rangers. Meanwhile, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo tweets that the Rangers are “very interested” in Kelly. Rob Bradford of WEEI spoke with Kelly himself, who acknowledged the possibility that he could be moved due to Boston’s rotation surplus.

Kelly, 27, struggled tremendously in his first 14 starts with Boston, logging a 5.67 ERA that prompted a demotion to the minors. Upon returning, Kelly pitched to a much-improved 3.77 ERA with a 50-to-18 K/BB ratio in 11 starts, including an impressive 2.35 mark across his final eight outings of the season. Kelly also averaged 95.4 mph on his fastball, ranking him among the game’s hardest-throwing starters, and can be controlled for three more seasons via the arbitration process. If Texas, or any other club, believes that his end-of-season production is sustainable, he’s certainly an appealing trade chip. And, of course, many have long believed that Kelly could thrive in a bullpen role, which would be a nice fallback option for any team should he not pan out in the rotation.

The 26-year-old Smyly stands out as another reasonable rotation target for the Rangers. Like Kelly, he’s controllable through the 2018 season, though he’s coming off a season that was significantly shortened by a small labral tear in his left shoulder. Smyly threw just 66 1/3 innings for the Rays in 2015, although they were high in quality, as has come to be the expectation. Smyly logged a 3.11 ERA with 10.4 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 to go along with a 36.8 percent ground-ball rate. While the Rays have already moved one starter this winter in Nate Karns, reports have indicated over the past month that they’re open to moving another arm.

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