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Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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Two offseasons of aggressive spending paid off as handsomely as possible for the Rangers, who captured the franchise’s first World Series championship.  With a repeat now possible, will the ownership and the front office continue to break the bank?

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments: $171.25MM (if Leclerc’s option is exercised)
Total future commitments: $636.083MM (if Leclerc’s option is exercised)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Arguably baseball’s best lineup will return almost fully intact in 2024.  Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Jung, Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras, and Evan Carter form a tremendous core of everyday players, and this entire group is controlled through at least the 2026 season.  Considering that Seager spent six weeks on the injured list and that the younger players have higher ceilings, it is quite possible that the Rangers will be even better offensively, which is a scary proposition for opposing pitchers.

And, the lineup potential doesn’t stop there.  Ezequiel Duran had some ups and downs during his sophomore season, but Duran finished 2023 with above-average (107 wRC+) offense and an ability to at least passably handle multiple defensive positions, making him a valuable utility piece going forward.  Top prospect Wyatt Langford already advanced to Triple-A within a few months of being the fourth overall pick of the 2023 draft, so a Major League debut seems in the cards for next season.  Sam Huff and Josh H. Smith were well-regarded prospects in their own right, and still have breakout potential if they can find more regular playing time.

It adds up to such a bevy of options that the Rangers could decide to simply part ways with some of their veteran free agents.  Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski performed capably well sharing time with Duran in left field last season, but Carter’s emergence means that that revolving door in left field has been now been closed.  Grossman’s ability to mash left-handed pitching makes him a nice compliment to the left-handed hitting Carter, though Texas might see Duran as a suitable in-house candidate as a part-time right-handed bat.

From Grossman’s own perspective, he might prefer joining a team with a clearer path to regular playing time, even if the idea of re-upping with the World Series champs has some natural appeal.  If Grossman does leave, Jankowski comes at a cheaper price tag, and is more of a traditional backup outfielder given Jankowski’s ability to play all three positions on the grass.  That said, Carter and Garcia can also fill in as a center fielder when Taveras is out of the lineup, and Langford’s impending arrival could give Carter more of a role in center field anyway down the road.

Signing some kind of veteran bench option seems like a logical move for Texas, whether that veteran is a familiar face like Grossman or Jankowski, or a newcomer eager to play for a contender.  As tremendous as Carter looked throughout September and during the playoffs, some regression is probably inevitable once opposing pitchers get a book on the outfield phenom.  Injuries and a lack of performance made Brad Miller a non-factor for most of 2023, so the Rangers could look to add a Miller-type of player that can provide versatility in the infield as well as the outfield.

The backup catching role will also have to be resolved.  Huff’s glovework is still a question mark, so Texas could opt to re-sign Austin Hedges as a pure defensive specialist behind everyday starter Heim.  Or, the Rangers could look to entirely bring the band back together by re-signing Mitch Garver and reinstalling him into the primary DH/backup catcher role.

This usage worked so well in 2023 that reuniting with Garver is surely tempting for the Rangers.  It is possible Garver might even accept the qualifying offer if issued, as he’d land a $20.325MM payday for the 2024 season and return to a comfortable environment.  On the other hand, Garver is also the top free agent catcher on the market, so a longer-term contract elsewhere would certainly seem to be on the table.  Garver’s injury history might preclude him from being a true full-time catcher, though he could pursue a DH/catcher role similar to the one he held in Texas.

Qualifying offers must be issued by November 6, and that short timeframe adds another wrinkle to how the Rangers might approach Garver.  If Garver did receive a QO and he accepted, that would essentially solidify the Rangers’ plans for the DH spot heading into 2024.  On the one hand, that’s a bit of important winter business handled early….except that this particular offseason happens to have a certain generational talent available who needs a designated hitter role.

Would anyone be surprised if Shohei Ohtani was wearing a Rangers uniform on Opening Day?  Given how owners Ray Davis and Bob Simpson have boosted the club’s payroll over the last two seasons, another splurge to land Ohtani can’t be ruled out, even if Ohtani’s contract tops the $500MM mark.  Texas has been on Ohtani’s radar before, as due to the Rangers’ and Cubs’ association with Yu Darvish, Texas and Chicago were the only two non-West Coast teams on Ohtani’s short list when he first came to North American baseball during the 2017-18 offseason.

Fast forward to the 2023-24 offseason, and it isn’t known if geography is necessarily a factor in Ohtani’s eventual decision.  But, the Rangers can financially compete with anyone and they just won a championship, so one would imagine they’d be an attractive destination given Ohtani’s stated desire to win.  Technically, signing Ohtani might be a luxury for a team that already might be facing a slight logjam of too many up-and-coming players for too few positions, yet Ohtani is such a special player that Texas would be happy to figure out a talent surplus after the fact.

Since the Rangers exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they’d have to give up two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus pool money in order to sign Ohtani or any other free agent who rejects a qualifying offer.  This probably isn’t going to be a huge roadblock to the Rangers’ offseason plans, nor is the club likely to shy away from crossing the $237MM tax threshold again in 2024.  The Rangers were willing to give up multiple draft picks to sign qualified free agents like Seager, Semien, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi over the last two offseasons, but now facing the steeper tax penalty, it is possible the team ramps down slightly and only pursues maybe one QO-rejecting free agent.

For as much money as Texas has spent in the last two years, GM Chris Young is still working with a good deal of financial flexibility.  Seager, Semien, and deGrom alone take up a hefty chunk of the payroll, but they are also the only three players signed beyond the 2025 season.  This gives Young some freedom to look into other long-term deals, whether that translates as possible extensions (there’s merit to locking up Jung or Carter right now, for instance) or spending more money to solidify the pitching staff.

Though the Rangers just won a championship with more than a few question marks on the pitching front, the rotation and bullpen figure to be the major offseason target areas.  DeGrom is aiming to return in August 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June, but with that rehab situation still very fluid, the Rangers can count on a starting staff of Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, and Dane Dunning for the time being.

Cody Bradford and Owen White represent in-house depth options, and Andrew Heaney could just remain as the fifth starter if he doesn’t exercise his opt-out clause.  Heaney would be leaving $13MM on the table if he did choose to opt out, and MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently explored the pros and cons Heaney and his representatives are undoubtedly weighing as they consider the left-hander’s next step.

Even if Heaney did remain, the Rangers are still going to be looking to add pitching.  Dunning or Heaney both pitched well enough to deserve rotation spots under normal circumstances, yet either could be used in the bullpen or in some type of unofficial sixth starter role.  Having extra pitching on hand is a logical move for depth purposes, especially considering Eovaldi’s past injury history, and the 39-year-old Scherzer battling through a number of nagging injuries in 2023.

Jordan Montgomery is the obvious name on the Rangers’ pitching wishlist, as the southpaw was such a key figure in the club’s title run after being acquired from the Cardinals at the trade deadline.  Montgomery’s performance only elevated his free agent price tag, and since he is ineligible for the qualifying offer, he is all the more attractive to any teams wary of surrendering draft picks.  Texas will be vying against several other teams for Montgomery’s services, but again, the Rangers have the money, the championship pedigree, and some built-in familiarity with Montgomery that might make them the favorite in this bidding war.

Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery removes him as a pitching option for 2024, yet he could slide into an open spot in 2025 since Scherzer, Heaney, and possibly Eovaldi could all be free agents next offseason.  Looking at other top pitchers on the market, the Rangers have been scouting Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and the likes of Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, or Sonny Gray could all be targets, even if those three will undoubtedly come with QO-attached draft penalties attached.  Local product Clayton Kershaw has been on the Rangers’ radar for the last two offseasons, but the news that Kershaw will be out until at least next summer due to shoulder surgery will complicate a pursuit, beyond whether or not Kershaw would leave the Dodgers.

Though the Rangers’ relief corps was more stable during the playoffs, the bullpen’s volatility during the regular season almost cost Texas a postseason berth altogether.  Jose Leclerc was the steadiest member of the pen, and his club option is a lock to be exercised as Leclerc re-established himself as the closer throughout the playoffs.  Will Smith acted as closer for much of 2023 and the Rangers will likely try to re-sign the veteran, both due to his steady results and the unofficial league rule that Smith’s team always wins the World Series.

Josh Sborz and Brock Burke will return, and Dunning, Heaney, or Bradford could again be part of the relief mix depending on what happens in the rotation.  Re-signing Martin Perez might be another option on this front, if Perez is willing to pitch primarily in a relief role or as a swingman at best.  But it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas bring in three or four more relief options, ranging from low-cost veterans on minor league deals or the very top of the market.

As such, Josh Hader figures to be part of the offseason conversation in Arlington.  Signing the free agent market’s top closer would instantly make the bullpen a lot more formidable, and solve perhaps the only weak link on the roster.  Hader is another free agent who will reject a qualifying offer, which is another consideration for the Rangers to make as they also weigh whether or not it is wiser to splurge on Hader, or to devote their resources to multiple relievers.  The latter strategy carries its own set of risks, as the reliever class has already started to thin out since the Braves re-signed Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson before they hit the open market.

For all of this focus on free agency, we shouldn’t at all ignore the possibility that the Rangers might use the trade market for upgrades, especially after Young’s bold deadline moves to land Montgomery and Scherzer.  The aforementioned semi-surplus of position players could be solved in part by moving some of the younger talent in a trade.  It is fair to say that Carter and Langford are more than untouchable, yet it wouldn’t be a shock to see Duran, Smith, or Huff dealt.  Dipping further into the minors, infield prospects like Justin Foscue or longer-term prospects like Sebastian Walcott or Cameron Cauley could be trade chips, as Seager, Semien, and Jung look to have the infield locked down for the foreseeable future.

All manner of possibilities are open to the Rangers this winter, and Young’s front office can also operate with a bit of unique freedom in the sense that they’re already triumphed.  With one trophy already secured and so much talent in place, the next challenge for Young will be figuring out how to set up the 2023 champions into a potential dynasty.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Rangers-centric live chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.

Report: MLB Grants Yariel Rodriguez Free Agency

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Right-handed pitcher Yariel Rodriguez has officially been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, reports Francys Romero (X link). He is now free to sign with an MLB team.

Rodriguez became one of the more intriguing options on the pitching market when he was granted a release from his contract with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons a month ago. He has been conducting showcases for MLB clubs in the few weeks since but was barred from officially signing with a major league team until today. There’s nothing to suggest he’ll sign imminently, of course, but this removes the procedural hurdle he still needed to clear.

A native of Cuba, Rodriguez turns 27 in March. That’s atypically young for a free agent pitcher. He worked out of the bullpen over parts of three seasons with the Dragons. Rodriguez had a dominating showing in 2022, when he pitched to a 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate over 54 2/3 innings. He worked as a starter for his home country during the World Baseball Classic. Once that event concluded, Rodriguez decided not to report back to the Dragons. He sat out the remainder of the 2023 season — the team placed him on the restricted list — before his camp secured his release.

MLB teams figure to have differing evaluations on Rodriguez’s viability as a starter. He’s an intriguing arm with promising stuff and success at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported last month that the Rays were among 15 teams with scouts in attendance for one of Rodriguez’s recent workouts in the Dominican Republic. This afternoon, Romero listed (on X) 10 clubs that had shown interest in the hurler: the Astros, Yankees, Rangers, Pirates, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Phillies, White Sox, Mets and Giants.

Ian Kennedy To Retire

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Right-hander Ian Kennedy is retiring, he told Evan Thompson of Sport Relay during last night’s World Series celebration. While Kennedy indicated he had made the decision that this would be his final season going into 2023, he acknowledged “there’s no better way to go out” than as a member of a Rangers team that clinched the franchise’s first title.

The Yankees selected Kennedy in the first round of the 2006 draft. The USC product reached the majors a little more than a year later, debuting as a September call-up in ’07. He saw limited action in the Bronx over the next two-plus seasons. During the 2009-10 offseason, the Yanks dealt Kennedy to the Diamondbacks as part of the three-team blockbuster that moved Max Scherzer to Detroit and Curtis Granderson to New York.

Kennedy spent three and a half seasons as a key piece of the Arizona rotation. He led the National League with 21 wins while pitching to a 2.88 ERA across 222 innings in 2011, securing a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. At the 2013 deadline, the Snakes flipped Kennedy to the Padres for Joe Thatcher. He worked out of the San Diego rotation for two and a half seasons, eating around 200 innings annually with a combined 3.97 ERA.

Going into 2016, the Royals signed the hurler to a five-year, $70MM free agent pact. After posting a 3.68 ERA across 33 starts during his first season in K.C., Kennedy struggled in 2017-18. He reinvented himself as a closer in 2019, saving 30 games while posting a 3.41 ERA. He was hit hard in the shortened season and landed with the Rangers on a minor league pact in 2021.

Kennedy had a strong rebound showing in Texas, emerging as one of the better rental relievers on that summer’s trade market. The Rangers dealt him alongside Kyle Gibson to the Phillies. He played out the stretch with Philadelphia, then returned to Arizona on a $4.75MM free agent deal. Kennedy’s return to the desert didn’t go well. He re-signed with the Rangers for 2023, logging 16 1/3 frames over a pair of stints. While he wasn’t on the active roster for Texas’ playoff run, he capped off his playing days with a ring.

It was a storybook punctuation to a 17-year run in the majors. Kennedy logged a little over 1900 innings between six teams, posting a 4.16 ERA. He struck out 1775 hitters, won 104 games and collected 66 saves after his late-career bullpen move. According to Baseball Reference, he banked over $101MM in career earnings. MLBTR congratulates Kennedy on an excellent run and wishes him the best in retirement.

Nelson Cruz To Retire

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Nelson Cruz revealed on the Adam Jones Podcast that he is planning to retire from playing after an upcoming stint in the Dominican Winter League.

Nelson Cruz | Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY SportsCruz, now 43, was something of a late bloomer but still went on to have an incredibly long and productive career in the big leagues. He didn’t fully establish himself as an everyday big league player until 2009. That was technically his “age-28 season”, but he turned 29 on July 1, just after the standard June 30 cutoff for such distinctions. He had some limited looks in the big leagues with the Brewers and Rangers from 2005 to 2008 but that 2009 season saw him bust out with 33 home runs and 20 stolen bases for Texas.

He would follow that with 22 and 29 home runs in the next two years, helping the Rangers reach the World Series in each campaign, though they ultimate lost on both occasions. He continued serving as a potent slugger for a time but that was put on pause when he was connected to the Biogenesis performance-enhancing drugs scandal, receiving a 50-game suspension in August of 2013.

He reached free agency after that campaign and the Rangers gave him a qualifying offer of over $14MM, which he turned down. The draft pick forfeiture tied to that QO and his PED situation led to him lingering on the open market until late February, eventually signing with the Orioles for one year and $8MM, well below the QO he turned down.

He had a monster year for the O’s in 2014, launching 40 home runs and helping that club reach the American League Championship Series. The O’s then gave him a $15.3MM qualifying offer, as players were still allowed to receive multiple QOs at that time. The limit of one per career did not come into place until the 2017-2021 Collective Bargaining Agreement. Cruz turned the QO down again but fared far better in this trip to free agency, landing a four-year, $57MM deal with the Mariners.

Though he had been an outfielder earlier in his career, he slid more into a full-time designated hitter role over the course of that deal with Seattle. The club likely didn’t mind as he continued mashing, with 163 home runs in that four-year span. He then continued to produce in a similar fashion after joining the Twins, launching 41 more homers in 2019 then 16 in the shortened 2020 season.

He was still crushing baseballs through the first half of 2021, but his production slid after a midseason trade from the Twins to the Rays. He signed one-year deals with the Nationals and Padres for the past two seasons but his offensive production slid to below par. Since he was into his 40s and limited to DH duties only, it became tougher to roster him and the Padres released him in July.

Cruz retires having played in 2,055 regular season games, hitting 464 home runs in that time. His finishes with a batting line of .274/.343/.513, which translates into a wRC+ of 128, indicating he was 28% better than the league average hitter. He made seven All-Star teams, won four Silver Sluggers, a Roberto Clemente Award and various other honors. He represented the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic on four separate occasions, winning the 2013 tournament. His Baseball Reference page indicates he earned over $140MM in his career. We at MLB Trade Rumors salute Cruz for his many accomplishments and wish him the best of luck for whatever awaits him in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Win World Series

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With a 5-0 victory over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night, the Rangers claimed their first World Series championship in franchise history. They took the series four games to one, splitting the first two contests at Globe Life Field in Texas before winning all three at Chase Field in Arizona.

The franchise was established in 1961 as the Washington Senators, before moving to Arlington in 1972. The Rangers won back-to-back AL pennants in 2010 and ’11 but lost in the World Series both years. They held the second-longest championship drought in baseball, a title that now falls to the Brewers, who have not won a World Series in their 55-year history. The Guardians, having last won a World Series in 1948, still hold the longest championship drought in the game at 75 years and counting.

Including Milwaukee, there are now just five franchises that have yet to win a World Series: the Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Rockies, and Rays.

The Rangers took fate into their own hands over the past two seasons, signing stars like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi to large contracts to accelerate their competitive window. They burst out of the gate in 2023, going 17-11 (.607) in April and 52-39 (.571) in the first half. General Manager Chris Young remained aggressive at the trade deadline, adding Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery to replenish a depleted rotation. The moves paid off, and the Rangers finished 90-72 with a +165 run differential. Although they lost the division crown on a tiebreaker, they swept their way to the ALCS and dethroned the Astros in a thrilling seven-game series. Just two years removed from a 102-loss season, the Rangers are World Series champions.

Seager was named World Series MVP for his dominant offensive performance against Arizona. In five games, he smacked three home runs, driving in six. The star shortstop led all players in the World Series in Win Probability Added (WPA), scoring a run in all four Texas victories. Overall, he hit .318 with a 1.133 OPS in the postseason. It is his second time winning World Series MVP honors, after previously taking home the award in 2020 with the Dodgers.

Additional hitters from the championship team who merit special recognition for their postseason performance include Adolis García and Evan Carter. On the pitching side, Montgomery and Eovaldi offered particularly praiseworthy performances, as did Josh Sborz and José Leclerc. García led the team with eight home runs and a whopping 22 RBI throughout the playoffs, taking home ALCS MVP honors. Unfortunately, his postseason ended early after an oblique strain in Game 3. Carter, the rookie phenom, was an integral part of the team’s offense despite making his MLB debut this past September. He is only 21 years old.

Eovaldi made six starts across the four series, going 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA. Montgomery was similarly dominant, appearing in six games (five starts) and posting a 2.90 ERA of his own. Meanwhile, Leclerc and Sborz were a lethal combination out of the bullpen. Leclerc, the longest-tenured player on the roster, was reliable as ever, pitching in 13 contests and putting up a 3.29 ERA. Sborz, for his part, showed up seemingly out of nowhere, tossing 12 innings and giving up just one run, good for a 0.75 ERA. Over the past three years with Texas, he has a 4.98 ERA. However, his underlying numbers have long suggested he is better than his ERA, and with his performance this postseason, he proved that to be true.

Manager Bruce Bochy collects his fourth World Series title, having won with the Giants in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Funnily enough, his Giants beat the Rangers to win it all in 2010. The long-time manager came out of retirement to join the Rangers in 2023, a surprising move at the time, but clearly a shrewd decision.

With the World Series wrapped up, it’s time for the offseason to officially begin. Teams can start making trades on Thursday, and they will be able to sign free agents on Monday. That’s also the deadline for teams to make option decisions, to issue qualifying offers, and to add players from the 60-day injured list back to the 40-man roster. The non-tender deadline is November 17.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Heaney, Twins

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The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey provided an update on a handful of Red Sox prospects today, headlined by top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer. A consensus top-15 prospect in the sport headed into the 2023 campaign, Mayer hit well enough in 35 games with Boston’s High-A affiliate last season to earn a promotion to Double-A, though his move to the upper levels of the minors was met with difficulties. Over 190 trips to the plate at the level, Mayer slashed just .189/.254/.355 with a 25.8% strikeout rate before ultimately seeing his 2023 campaign come to an end due to a nagging shoulder injury at the beginning of August.

Mayer has been been doing rehab work since the season ended, per McCaffrey, and is expected to have a normal offseason this winter. It’s surely a significant relief for the Red Sox, as Mayer could be on the radar to reach the majors sometime next year given the club’s lack of certainty in the middle infield. Boston figures to use Trevor Story as their everyday shortstop next year, though he slashed just .203/.250/.316 in 43 games this year after returning from surgery midseason. Alongside Story, the club sports a handful of options including Enmanuel Valdez, Luis Urias and top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela as potential contributors up the middle.

Also discussed in McCaffrey’s piece is right-hander Noah Song, who was returned to the Red Sox by the Phillies back in August after the Phillies selected Song in the Rule 5 draft last offseason. While McCaffrey notes that the club may decide to protect Song from the Rule 5 draft this year to avoid a similar situation, she suggests it’s also possible that Song’s inability to stick on the roster in Philadelphia in 2023 could leave him unlikely to do so in 2024, even if selected for a second time. As a member of the naval reserves, Song has certain obligations to the US military that have impacted his ability to play baseball professionally in the past. That being said, McCaffrey relays that Red Sox director of player development Brian Abraham believes Song’s military duties can be fulfilled during the offseason, allowing him to have a normal 2024 campaign.

More from the American League…

  • Rangers left-hander Andrew Heaney discussed his decision to sign in Texas last winter recently with Rob Bradford on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast. Heaney acknowledged that he discussed potential deals with several teams, including the Red Sox, adding that he spoke with the team remotely and met with a member of the club’s medical staff during negotiations last offseason. Ultimately, Heaney notes that his decision to sign in Texas was influenced by the Oklahoma City native wanting to play for his hometown team. Heaney can opt out of the final year and $13MM on his deal with the Rangers this offseason. If he decides to do so on the heels of a season where he posted a 4.15 ERA in 147 1/3 innings of work it’s at least possible that the Red Sox, who figure to lose lefty James Paxton and righty Corey Kluber to free agency later this month, could be a suitor for his services once again.
  • Long-time Twins TV broadcaster Dick Bremer is stepping away from the booth after 40 years as the club’s play-by-play announcer, per an announcement by the club yesterday. Bremer, 67, will remain as a member of the Twins organization as a special assistant to the front office. Per the club’s press release, the Twins are currently “assessing potential broadcast options as well as a talent lineup for 2024 and beyond” with announcements expected later this offseason. Minnesota, of course, is among the teams impacted by Diamond Sports Group filing for bankruptcy back in March. The split with Diamond has left the club’s broadcast situation up in the air headed into the 2024 campaign.

Rangers Remove Adolis Garcia, Max Scherzer From World Series Roster

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6:11PM: The Rangers have officially replaced Garcia and Scherzer on the World Series roster with Duran and left-hander Brock Burke, the league announced.  Burke had a 4.37 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, and 3.8% walk rate over 59 2/3 innings for Texas this season, initially working as a multi-inning reliever before settling into a more standard one-inning bullpen role.  The southpaw has made only one appearance during the Rangers’ playoff run, tossing one-third of an inning in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Orioles.

5:12PM: Adolis Garcia and Max Scherzer each left yesterday’s Game 3 with injuries, as Garcia was removed with an apparent side injury after a big swing in the eighth inning and Scherzer lasted only three innings on the mound due to back tightness.  Providing updates on both players today, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy told media that the club had yet to make a formal decision about whether or not either Garcia or Scherzer would be replaced on the World Series roster, but that decision might come prior to the start of tonight’s Game 4.

“It’s not great news” about Garcia, as Bochy bluntly put it, as the outfielder has suffered “a moderate strain of the oblique.”  Garcia took some swings to test his readiness and is undergoing treatment from team trainers, but he has already been ruled out of the starting lineup, as Travis Jankowski will instead get the nod tonight in Garcia’s customary right field spot.  As for Scherzer, the veteran right-hander’s back is still “pretty locked up,” putting his readiness for another appearance later in the Series into serious doubt.

Since a player cannot return to action in the World Series once he is removed from the roster, it is understandable why Texas is being as cautious as possible before making a final call on Garcia and Scherzer.  That said, it is hard to imagine either getting healthy enough to play within the short window of time remaining in the postseason.  The Rangers simply can’t afford to play essentially two men down, and even though Scherzer probably wouldn’t have pitched again until a possible Game 7 if healthy, the Rangers would still be fielding a shorthanded roster in the event that Scherzer was given an extra day or two for more observation.  Getting a fresh arm in Scherzer’s place would also help the bullpen sooner rather than later.

Ezequiel Duran has already been tabbed as the replacement should Garcia indeed be removed from the roster, yet obviously there’s no way to truly replace his huge contributions to the Texas lineup.  Garcia has been perhaps the biggest star of the Rangers’ playoff run, as he has hit .323/.382/.726 with eight home runs over 68 plate appearances this postseason.  Garcia’s 15 RBI during the ALCS set a new record for most RBI in a postseason series, and Garcia was rightly named ALCS MVP for his heroics in the Rangers’ seven-game triumph over the Astros.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Max Scherzer, Adolis García Leave World Series Game 3 With Injuries

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10:26 pm: Max Scherzer told reporters after the game, including Bob Nightengale of USA Today, that his back locked up ahead of the fourth inning. The spasm was unrelated to the batted ball that hit him in the back earlier in the game (per Alden González of ESPN). As reported by Levi Weaver of The Athletic, Scherzer has had this issue before; sometimes, it clears within two or three days, but on some occasions, it has been significantly worse. Thus, his availability for the rest of the series is up in the air.

García, meanwhile, is set to undergo an MRI, per Nightengale.

10:15 pm: Although the Rangers beat the Diamondbacks to take a 2-1 lead in the World Series, it wasn’t all good news for Texas on Monday night. Two of the club’s biggest stars left the game early with injuries: future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer and postseason hero Adolis García.

Scherzer took the mound in the bottom of the fourth, but he would leave the field without throwing another pitch. He held the Diamondbacks scoreless over three innings, needing just 36 pitches to get the first nine outs. However, as he began to warm up for the fourth, manager Bruce Bochy and a trainer came to the mound and walked the 39-year-old off the field. Soon after, the team announced that he had left the game with back tightness (per Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic). Presumably, the injury was caused by a comebacker from Alek Thomas that hit him squarely in the back during the second inning.

Scherzer missed the first two series of the postseason as he continued to rehab from the teres major strain he suffered during the regular season. He returned for the ALCS, but after a couple of rough outings, he told reporters (including David Lennon of Newsday) that a cut on his thumb was affecting his performance. Now, yet another injury has prevented the long-time ace from pitching like his typical self in the playoffs. It remains unclear if he will be available for a potential Game 7, should the series reach that point.

Jon Gray was lights out in relief of Scherzer, pitching three scoreless innings of his own, striking out three, and giving up just one hit. He collected the win, the first postseason victory of his career. Unfortunately, that means he won’t be available for Game 4 tomorrow; previously, he had seemed like the leading candidate to get the start. Now, it’s likely that Bochy will hand the ball to one of Dane Dunning or Andrew Heaney, although the leash will be short for either one.

García exited later in the game with tightness in his left side (per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). He seemed to hurt himself on a bad swing, as he flew out to end the eighth. While the Rangers have not yet provided more specific details about his injury (presumably, he needs to undergo some tests), it seems likely the problem is in his oblique. That could be bad news for the Rangers offense, of which García has been, perhaps, the most productive performer. Entering Game 3, he was leading his team in batting average, slugging percentage, home runs, and RBI in the postseason.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

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