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Dodgers To Promote Michael Busch

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The Dodgers are going to promote prospect Michael Busch, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. Busch will take the roster spot of Max Muncy, who is going on the paternity list. Busch is already on the 40-man roster and won’t require a corresponding move in that regard. The Dodgers are off tonight but start a series in Pittsburgh tomorrow, when the move should be made official.

Busch, 25, was a first round pick of the Dodgers, getting selected 31st overall in 2019. He has since been posting excellent numbers in the minors, showing both tremendous power and patience in the box. He spent all of 2021 in Double-A, walking in 14.1% of his plate appearances and hitting 20 home runs in 107 games. Last year, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting 32 home runs in 142 games between those two levels, walking in 11.5% of his trips to the plate. His combined .274/.365/.516 batting line translated to a 118 wRC+. Busch was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s off to a roaring start here in 2023, hitting .337/.461/.506 through 21 Triple-A games.

If there’s a knock on Busch, it’s on the defensive side of things. A first baseman in college, he’s spent a bit of time there recently but has seen the bulk of his action as a professional at second base. He’s also had short stints at third base and left field. Playing all of those different positions is less a reflection of versatility and more a suggestion that he’s not really a strong defender and is a work in progress as the Dodgers try to find a home for him in the field. Some evaluators have compared him to the player he’s replacing today, Muncy, as both players combine power and plate discipline with some degree of defensive versatility.

The Dodgers had a relatively modest offseason by their standards, letting notable players depart while signing various veterans to one-year deals. That’s allowed them to give some runway to various younger players, such as Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot, though the latter two are now on the injured list. Busch will be latest youngster to get a crack at the big leagues.

Coming into this year, Busch was ranked around the middle of many top 100 prospect lists, including Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. The first two of those are potentially significant, given the rules under the new collective bargaining agreement. It’s too late in the season for Busch to get to a full year of service time the traditional way, but his status as a top prospect provides him with an alternate path. Under the new CBA, players with less than 60 days of service time that are on two of the preseason top 100 lists of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline or ESPN can earn a full year of service regardless of when they were called up if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting.

That may end up being a fairly moot point in this case, as it seems possible that Busch will only get a brief stay in the bigs while Muncy is on the paternity list. But if he somehow manages to stick around and perform well enough to get some decent Rookie of the Year votes, he could get himself to that full year. He didn’t crack the top 100 at ESPN but the BA and MLB Pipeline ranks are enough to get that on the table.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Guardians Planning To Promote Logan Allen

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The Guardians have informed reporters, including Mandy Bell of MLB.com, that pitching prospect Logan Allen is the planned starter for Sunday’s game, weather permitting. Allen isn’t currently on the 40-man roster and will require a corresponding move.

The 24-year-old Allen, not to be confused with former Guardian Logan Allen, was selected by the Guards in the second round of the 2020 draft. He has since shot up through the minor leagues, racking up huge strikeout totals along the way. In 2021, he pitched in High-A and Double-A, posting a 2.26 ERA in 111 1/3 innings. He struck out 33.2% of batters faced while walking just 6% of them. Last year, he tossed 132 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His 4.75 combined ERA doesn’t look especially impressive, but the under-the-hood numbers are much nicer. He punched out 31.5% of opponents while giving free passes 9.1% of the time. The ERA was likely inflated by a .335 batting average on balls in play and 68.5% strand rate, both of those being on the unlucky side of typical averages.

Coming into the season, he was ranked the #85 prospect in the game at Baseball America, though he’s since moved up to #80. FanGraphs had him at #57 and ESPN at #53, though he didn’t crack the list at MLB Pipeline. He’s made three starts at Triple-A so far this year with a 1.26 ERA, 34.5% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate and 57.6% ground ball rate.

The Guardians have been dealing with a few injuries to their rotation this year, with Triston McKenzie on the 60-day injured list due to a teres major strain and Aaron Civale on the 15-day IL due to a strained oblique. That pushed Peyton Battenfield and Hunter Gaddis into the mix, though the latter posted a 7.64 ERA in four starts and was optioned to the minors this week. The Guardians have a seemingly never-ending supply of intriguing pitching prospects and will give Allen a shot at taking that open rotation spot this weekend as long as Mother Nature cooperates.

Since Allen is getting promoted a few weeks into the season, he can’t earn a full year of service time the traditional way. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs 172 days in the big leagues, or on the injured list, to earn a full year. Allen would fall short of that even if he were to remain in the majors the rest of the way. However, there is one way he could still earn that full year of service, courtesy of the latest collective bargaining agreement. Any player with less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season who was on at least two of the preseason top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline receives a full year if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting. This already happened once when Adley Rutschman finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting to Julio Rodríguez last year. Rutschman had missed the start of the season on the injured list but was able to get a full year of service regardless.

As mentioned, Allen didn’t crack the MLB Pipeline list but was on the BA and ESPN lists, making him eligible for that full year. But doing so would require him not only sticking on the roster, but thriving enough to earn those votes at year’s end.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Guardians Option Brayan Rocchio

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April 20: The Guardians announced that Rocchio has been optioned back to Triple-A, opening a roster spot for right-hander Enyel De Los Santos, who’s returning from the paternity list. Based on Rocchio’s quick return to Columbus, it seems the Guards are confident that Rosario and/or Freeman can both avoid a trip to the injured list. Rocchio didn’t get into yesterday’s game, but he’ll get a day of big league service out of the quick turnaround and head back to Triple-A in preparation for a legitimate opportunity at the MLB level.

April 19, 10:08am: The Guardians have recalled Rocchio and optioned right-hander Hunter Gaddis to Triple-A Columbus back in his place. Zack Meisel of The Athletic tweets that Rocchio may only stay on the big league roster for a day or two. However, both Rosario (back) and Freeman (shoulder) are currently banged up and unavailable, so Rocchio will provide some needed middle infield depth alongside Gimenez and Arias. If either Rosario or Freeman winds up requiring an IL stint, however, Rocchio would stick around longer.

The Guardians will need to make another roster move to bring up a starter for Monday, when Gaddis would’ve gotten the ball.

9:15am: The Guardians are calling up top infield prospect Brayan Rocchio, reports Daniel Álvarez Montes of El Extra Base (Twitter link). He’ll be in Detroit for today’s game, though it’s worth noting that Rocchio is not in the team’s starting lineup that was just released minutes after the report. Gabriel Arias is starting at shortstop, as Amed Rosario has been sidelined the past few games due to back troubles. Speculatively speaking, Rocchio would be a sensible addition if an IL stint has been deemed necessary for Rosario, particularly since Rocchio is already on the 40-man roster.

Rocchio, 22, signed as an amateur out of Venezuela at 16 and has steadily risen through Cleveland’s system while drawing a good bit of fanfare for his hit tool and defensive skill set. He currently ranks as the game’s No. 54 prospect at FanGraphs, No. 69 at MLB.com and No. 74 at Baseball America. The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Rocchio as high as No. 22 in all of baseball prior to the start of the 2023 season, touting him as a potentially above-average defender at shortstop with a good hit tool and enough power to pop 15 to 20 home runs per season.

Rocchio had a strong showing in Double-A Akron in 2022, batting .265/.349/.432 with 13 home runs in 432 plate appearances. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A late in the season. Then 21 years of age and facing much more advanced competition, Rocchio posted a tepid .234/.298/.387 slash in 152 trips to the plate down the stretch in Columbus.

The 2023 season has gotten out to a much better start, however. Rocchio has appeared in 15 games, taken 70 turns at the dish and turned in a stout .344/.414/.459 with nearly as many walks (eight) as strikeouts (nine). He’s up to a total of 222 Triple-A plate appearances with just a 13.5% strikeout rate dating back to last year, displaying the bat-to-ball skills that have helped make him a touted prospect and that have come to be a hallmark of the Cleveland organization in recent seasons.

Cleveland has a crowded middle infield mix, with Rosario locked in at shortstop and Andres Gimenez entrenched at second base. Rosario is a free agent following the season, which could pave the way for a potential move of the recently extended Gimenez back to his natural shortstop, but regardless of Gimenez’s alignment, the Guardians have a wealth of options should Rosario sign elsewhere this offseason. Beyond Rocchio and the aforementioned Arias, the Guardians also have well-regarded young players in Tyler Freeman, Jose Tena and Angel Martinez, each of whom has reached at least Double-A. Freeman is currently on the big league roster but dealing with a shoulder issue.

Rocchio’s absence from today’s lineup could merely stem from the fact that the Guardians have a day game and he needs to travel to join the team. It’s also possible that he’s merely being called up for a quick depth stint while the team evaluates the health of Rosario and Freeman. Given his prospect status and long-term potential with the club, there’d be little sense in bringing him to the big leagues for any substantial period of time if he doesn’t have a path to regular at-bats.

Athletics To Promote Mason Miller

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The Athletics are planning to promote pitching prospect Mason Miller, reports Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. It seems possible that Miller will join the team today and could make his major league debut tomorrow. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster and will require a corresponding move.

Miller, 24, was selected by the A’s in the third round of the 2021 draft, making his professional debut with a few Complex League outings shortly after that draft. He logged just six innings there, but Baseball America ranked him the #16 prospect in the system going into 2022, largely based on his work in college. He was then limited by a shoulder strain in 2022, not making his season debut until late August. He made one appearance in the Complex League, three in High-A and then two in Triple-A. He finished the year with a combined 3.86 ERA in 14 innings over those games.

It was a very limited sample, but he did rack up 25 strikeouts, exactly half of the 50 batters he faced, while keeping his walks down to a 6% rate. He was then sent to get some extra work in the Arizona Fall League, tossing 16 2/3 innings there with a 3.24 ERA, racking up another 20 punchouts. Based on that strong-but-limited showing, BA bumped him to #4 in the system coming into this year. FanGraphs was perhaps even more bullish, giving Miller the #98 spot on their preseason list of the top 100 prospects in the league. Both outlets highlight Miller’s velocity, with his fastball able to hit triple digits, while also complimenting his slider and changeup. BA adds that he was planning to re-introduce a cutter in 2023, a pitch he had been avoiding as part of his rehab.

This year, Miller started out with a Double-A appearance, allowing two earned runs over 3 2/3 innings, but striking out eight opponents. He then got bumped to Triple-A, where he tossed five shutout innings with 11 punchies. By all accounts, Miller clearly has electric stuff and great results, but in very small samples. His entire professional career consists of 28 2/3 innings in the minors and those 16 2/3 frames in the AFL, adding up to 45 1/3. He did log 239 innings in college, but it’s still unusual for a club to fast-forward a player’s rise through the minors like this. That being said, Miller seems to have excellent stuff and might be ready to get big league hitters out right now.

The A’s have been toying with using a six-man rotation this year, in part to help Shintaro Fujinami adjust from the once-a-week pitching schedule preferred in Japan to the five-day rotation that’s more common in North America. He’s been joined by Kyle Muller, JP Sears, James Kaprielian, Ken Waldichuk and Adam Oller so far, though Oller made two long relief outings before getting his first start of the year last week. He was rocked for seven earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings in that start and was optioned to the minors shortly after. It seems his struggles have perhaps opened an opportunity for Miller to make his MLB debut. The A’s weren’t expected to compete this year and are off to a 3-14 start, giving them little reason not to see what they have in Miller.

Now that Opening Day has moved into the rearview mirror, it won’t be possible for Miller to reach a full year of service time. A baseball season is 187 days long but a player needs just 172 days on the active roster or injured list to accrue a full year. With the season now 20 days in, Miller would come up just shy of that one year mark even if he stays up for good. The new collective bargaining agreement has a path for players to get a full year of service time anyway, though that only applies to those who cracked two of the preseason top 100 lists at Baseball America, MLB Pipeline or ESPN. Miller made the FanGraphs list but none of those other three, meaning he doesn’t have a path to a full service year in 2023.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Recall Brett Baty

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APRIL 17: New York officially recalled Baty and reliever Edwin Uceta. To clear active roster space, they’ve optioned Jose Butto and placed outfielder Tim Locastro on the 10-day injured list with back spasms.

APRIL 16: The Mets are planning to recall top prospect Brett Baty, per SNY’s Andy Martino. A corresponding move will be required to make room for Baty on the active roster, though no such move has been announced as of yet. Tim Healey of Newsday notes that Baty will not be active for today’s game against the A’s, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post noting that he’s set to join the club in LA tomorrow.

Baty, 23, is a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport. He made his MLB debut in an 11-game stint with the Mets last year, though he struggled to a .184/.244/.342 slash line in that brief call-up. The club initially optioned him to Triple-A ahead of Opening Day, where he had only six games of experience coming into the season, but in 9 games with Syracuse to open the season, Baty has looked to be clearly above what the Triple-A level has to offer, slashing .400/.500/.886 with five homers and nearly as many walks (7) as strikeouts (9). That phenomenal performance has continued a stellar track record as a hitter all throughout the minors for Baty, who sports a .903 OPS in 1,075 minor league plate appearances.

A third baseman by trade, Baty likely stands to benefit from Eduardo Escobar’s slow start to the 2023 season, as the 34 year old veteran has slashed just .114/.167/.227 to open the 2023 campaign. That being said, Baty has begun getting reps in the outfield in recent years in the minor leagues, leaving open the possibility he could also factor into the outfield mix alongside Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte. Daniel Vogelbach and Tommy Pham are currently in a timeshare at DH, where Baty could also receive at-bats.

Per Matt Eddy of Baseball America, Baty will be retroactively credited with service time for his time in Triple-A as he was on optional assignment for fewer than 20 days. That leaves Baty poised to receive a full year of service time in 2023, while also making the Mets eligible to receive an additional draft pick should Baty qualify via thr Prospect Promotion Incentive by placing in the top three of NL Rookie of the Year voting or top five of NL MVP voting.

Angels Promote Zach Neto, Option David Fletcher

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The Angels made a significant transaction today, calling up top prospect Zach Neto, their first round pick from the 2022 draft. In the corresponding move, the Angels optioned David Fletcher, sending the six-year veteran to Triple-A. To make room on the 40-man roster, Chris Rodriguez has been transferred to the 60-day IL.

Neto will make his debut less than a year after the Angels took him 13th overall in the draft. The 22-year-old has absolutely torn up minor league pitching in that time, slashing .444/.559/.815 with three home runs in 34 plate appearances at Double-A to start this year, after slashing .320/.389/.492 over 136 plate appearances at the level last year.

All told, it took Neto just 44 minor league games to do enough for the Angels to call him up, and he’s now expected to take over as their everyday shortstop, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Neto as the Angels’ top prospect, and had him 59th overall in the sport. Law describes Neto as a “definite shortstop who projects to be a plus defender”, and combined with his bat expects him to be a “strong regular”.

The other side of this transaction is the demotion of Fletcher. The 28-year-old signed a five-year, $26MM extension just prior to the 2021 season, but Fletcher’s numbers have since deteriorated. After hitting .298/.356/.395 over 883 plate appearances between 2019-20, Fletcher has managed only a .258/.292/.323 slash line with four home runs over 909 PA, good for a wRC+ of just 69.

Fletcher’s a quality defender at second and third, posting a combined 31 Outs Above Average at the two positions throughout his career, while he’s more of a solid defender (two career OAA) at shortstop. He’s also sporadically played in the outfield.

Fletcher’s owed $6MM in 2023, and then a further $12.5MM over the next two seasons plus $3MM in buyouts on a pair of club options for 2026-27. It’s not an overly burdensome amount of money, but it’s a lot to be paying a minor league infielder. It’s possible the Angels see if Fletcher can rediscover his bat at Triple-A and then look to recall him to serve as a utilityman on the big league club going forward.

Of course, Neto has never played above Double-A so if he struggles after a stint in the big leagues the team could opt to give him a bit more time at Triple-A to develop and turn back to Fletcher. For now though, Neto will be the Angels’ starting shortstop, and if his hitting in the minor leagues can translate to the Show he could have that position for many years to come.

Twins Promote Edouard Julien

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April 12: The Twins formally announced that Julien has been recalled from Triple-A St. Paul. He’ll make his big league debut today at second base, Twins vice president of communications Dustin Morse tweets.

April 11: The Twins are promoting Edouard Julien before tomorrow’s game against the White Sox, reports Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic (Twitter link). That’ll be the corresponding move for the placement of Joey Gallo on the 10-day injured list.

It’s the first major league call for Julien. An 18th round pick out of Auburn in 2019, he signed for a well overslot $493K bonus after a down sophomore season. He’s significantly elevated his stock in pro ball. Julien has been an excellent offensive player throughout his time in the minors. He hit .267/.434/.480 in 2021, his first full minor league season after the cancelation of the previous campaign. The left-handed hitter spent all of last year with Double-A Wichita, raking at a .300/.441/.490 clip with 17 home runs over 508 plate appearances.

Julien showed top-end patience at the plate. His 19.3% walk rate was more than double the MLB average. That willingness to work deep counts translated to a slightly higher than average 24.6% strikeout percentage, though it’s a tradeoff with which the Twins are surely comfortable given Julien’s huge on-base marks.

The Quebec native played for Canada during this spring’s World Baseball Classic. He was assigned to Triple-A St. Paul to open this season. Julien has picked up right where he left off, collecting eight hits and seven walks through his first 36 plate appearances. He’s homered twice and doubled over his first eight games at the top minor league level.

Over the winter, Julien generated some top prospect attention. ESPN and FanGraphs placed him near the back of their respective Top 100 lists, while he finished just outside the Top 100 at Baseball America. Prospect evaluators unsurprisingly praise his plate discipline and strong left-handed power potential. He’s widely expected to be a productive offensive player at the MLB level.

Julien’s defensive profile is more spotty. He’s split his time between second base, left field and first base in the minors. Evaluators have offered bearish reviews on his glove at the keystone, suggesting he’s better suited for left field or first base long term. With Gallo’s injury vacating first base, it seems likely Julien will break in primarily there.

The Twins added Julien to their 40-man roster last offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. They won’t need to make any additional moves to call him up. The 23-year-old still has three minor league option years remaining, so the Twins can shuttle him between the majors and St. Paul as needed.

While Julien didn’t break camp with the MLB club, he’s still in position to potentially secure a full service year in 2023. Players need to accrue 172 days on the big league roster to reach one year. Julien would narrowly meet that cutoff if he’s in the majors for good, though any optional assignment back to the minors would keep him shy of a full season. The Twins aren’t in position to recoup any draft compensation for his promotion, as he only appeared on the preseason Top 100 list at one of ESPN, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rays Promote Taj Bradley, Place Zach Eflin On IL

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The Rays have placed right-hander Zach Eflin on the 15-day injured list due to back tightness, per broadcaster Neil Solondz. Pitching prospect Taj Bradley has been recalled to take his place and will make his major league debut on Wednesday. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times previously reported that these moves were imminent. Eflin’s IL placement is backdated to April 8, per Topkin.

Bradley, 22, was selected by the club in the fifth round of the 2018 draft. Since that time, he has continued to impress on the farm, moving up the minor league ladder and prospect lists. He pitched in Rookie Ball in 2018 and 2019, but then saw the minor leagues canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He split the following season between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, throwing 103 1/3 innings with a 1.83 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Last year, he went through Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 133 1/3 frames with a 2.57 ERA, striking out 26.5% of batters faced while walking just 6.2%.

Bradley is currently considered the #42 prospect in the game by Baseball America, #18 by MLB Pipeline, #60 by ESPN, #52 by Keith Law of The Athletic and #37 by FanGraphs. He was eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December but the Rays made the easy decision to add him to their 40-man roster to prevent him from being selected. That means he already has a roster spot but he’ll be making his MLB debut tomorrow.

The Rays are off to an incredible 10-0 start here this season, with their pitching playing a large role in that. They’ve only allowed 18 runs in those 10 games, easily the fewest in baseball with the Brewers next on the list at 26. Tampa’s schedule has been on the weaker side thus far, with their first nine games coming against the Tigers, Nationals and A’s, three of the worst teams last year. Nonetheless, they’ve gotten great results from their rotation, even with Shane Baz recovering from Tommy John surgery and Tyler Glasnow on the IL with an oblique strain. Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Eflin have all been great so far this season. Josh Fleming got roughed up in his first start but tossed four scoreless innings behind an opener in his second appearance.

Bradley will now check into that group for Eflin, at least for the time being. Solondz relays that manager Kevin Cash and Eflin both expect the latter to have a minimal stay on the IL, which would mean he’d only miss a couple of starts. The righty hasn’t exactly been a paragon of health in his career, as recurring knee issues have limited his workload over the years. He’s only once thrown 130 innings in a season, which was the 163 1/3 frames he tossed in 2019. He tells Topkin that he’s dealt with this back issue in the past and isn’t too concerned.

If those expectations come to pass and Eflin returns in a couple weeks, then it’s possible Bradley gets sent back down to Triple-A. That will likely depend on his performance, as well as that of Fleming and the health of the entire crew. There’s also the return of Glasnow on the horizon, which seems to potentially be slated for mid-May.

If it ends up coming to pass that Bradley sticks with the big league club for the rest of the season, he will be able to earn a full year of service time, just barely. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs only to spend 172 of those in the majors, or on the injured list, in order to earn a full “year” of service time. Bradley has missed 12 days of the season thus far, giving him just enough time to creep over the one-year line, though getting optioned later in the year will obviously impact that trajectory.

In the event he does get that full year, he will be eligible for the prospect promotion incentive. As part of the most recent collective bargaining agreement, if a player has less than 60 days of service time and is on two out of the three top 100 prospects lists from Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline then earns a full year of service as a rookie, they become PPI eligible. If they then win Rookie of the Year or finish in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting before reaching their arbitration years, they can net their club an extra draft pick. This already happened once when Julio Rodríguez won American League Rookie of the Year last year, getting the Mariners an extra draft pick after the first round. Bradley is on all three of those prospect lists and is therefore in the mix for earning PPI eligibility this year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Recall Grayson Rodriguez, Place Kyle Bradish On IL

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The Orioles have announced that right-hander Grayson Rodriguez has been recalled and will start today’s game against the Rangers. It was reported last night that the prospect was joining the club and likely to jump into the rotation. Fellow righty Kyle Bradish was placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 4, with a right foot contusion.

Rodriguez, 23, will be making his major league debut today, which has been a long time coming. A first-round pick from 2018, he’s been considered one of the top pitching prospects in the sport for a while. Baseball America has ranked him on their top 100 list in each of the past four seasons, with Rodriguez in the top 10 both this year and last year. He seemed to be cruising towards a debut last year since he began the season in Triple-A, but a lat strain then put him on the shelf for about three months and prevented that from happening.

Throughout the winter, it was expected by many that Rodriguez would crack the club’s Opening Day rotation, with general manager Mike Elias stating that was his expectation as well. But the young hurler didn’t look great in spring, posting a 7.04 ERA in his five starts. He struck out 19 hitters in his 15 1/3 innings but also walked seven and allowed 17 hits, including three home runs. The club decided not to carry him in the Opening Day rotation after all and optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk at the end of camp.

The O’s were probably hoping for Rodriguez to spend a bit more time in the minors getting into a good groove, but circumstances necessitated a quick change. Bradish was struck on his foot by a comebacker on Monday and was removed after just 28 pitches and 1 2/3 innings. That’s led to the recall of Rodriguez after just a single start for Norfolk, which didn’t exactly go swimmingly. He threw 75 pitches over four innings, allowing three runs, two earned. He only struck out two opponents, walked four of them and surrendered four hits.

It will be interesting to see how he fares in his first taste of major league action. On the one hand, the recent results haven’t been amazing. On the other, he’s ranked high on prospect lists because of his quality arsenal and has had better results in the past. He posted a 2.20 ERA in his 14 Triple-A starts last year, striking out 35.8% of batters he faced along the way.

If Rodriguez is able to thrive and hold onto his roster spot the rest of the way, he’ll be able to earn a full year of service time. The major league baseball season is 187 days long but a player needs to only spend 172 days on the active roster, or injured list, in order to bank a full year. That will obviously have implications for him personally, as hitting that mark would put him on track to reach arbitration after 2025 and free agency after 2028. But further time in the minors could keep him shy of that line and potentially push those timelines back a year.

The team could also benefit if Rodriguez sticks around, on top of whatever contributions he makes on the field. If a player has less than 60 days of service time and is considered a top 100 prospect by two of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline or ESPN then earns a full service year, they become eligible for the prospect promotion incentive. If that player wins Rookie of the Year or cracks the top three in Cy Young or MVP voting during their pre-arbitration years, the team will net an extra draft pick. This began with the new collective bargaining agreement that was signed a year ago and has already happened once, with the Mariners getting an extra draft pick when Julio Rodríguez won Rookie of the Year last season. Baltimore’s young pitcher is on all three of the aforementioned prospect lists, putting all of this on the table.

Those will be concerns for the future. In the short term, the club will have to see which version of Rodriguez shows up, the one who looked dominant in Triple-A last year or the one who floundered in spring this year. He’ll slot into the rotation next to Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells, with Bradish returning at some point down the line.

Orioles Expected To Promote Grayson Rodriguez

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The Orioles may soon bring up one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. Grayson Rodriguez will join the team in Texas tomorrow and is under consideration to start their game against the Rangers. Manager Brandon Hyde told reporters after tonight’s game that Baltimore hasn’t yet named their starter for tomorrow (relayed by Dan Connolly of the Athletic). That’s not to say it won’t be Rodriguez, who is still expected to join the MLB team in Arlington, but that doesn’t seem official as of now.

Rodriguez, 23, competed for a spot in the club’s Opening Day rotation but struggled to a 7.04 ERA in 15 1/3 innings of work during camp, prompting the club to option him to Triple-A. However, right-hander Kyle Bradish left his start yesterday with a foot contusion in the second inning. That pushed Tyler Wells to pitch five innings in relief of Bradish rather than make his scheduled start tonight. With Kyle Gibson moving up to take the ball tonight in place of Wells, that left no one to start tomorrow’s game against Texas.

It appears Rodriguez will make that start. As Dan Connolly of the Athletic points out (on Twitter), recalling a pitcher who had been optioned within the past 15 days would require a corresponding injured list transaction. That’ll presumably result in Bradish landing on the 15-day IL, though Baltimore hasn’t finalized that decision yet. According to Connolly, Austin Voth would be the likeliest option to take the ball if Bradish doesn’t go on the IL.

Assuming Rodriguez is tabbed for the start, it’ll be his MLB debut. Once a consensus top five prospect in the sport, Rodriguez struggled with a lat strain for much of the 2022 season. That caused him to slip slightly down some prospect rankings, though he remains a top 20 prospect in the eyes of virtually every prospecting service, with a career 2.49 ERA in the minor leagues supported by an eye-popping 35.9% strikeout rate.

Evaluators credit Rodriguez with one of the best arsenals in minor league baseball. Baseball America gives him above-average or better grades for four pitches, highlighted by plus-plus reviews of his fastball and slider. Keith Law of the Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, by contrast, each pointed to his changeup as the headlining pitch in his arsenal.

While a few days of the season have already elapsed, there’s still enough time for Rodriguez to reach a full service year in 2023. Players are credited with a full year so long as they’re on a roster for 172 days. If Rodriguez is in the majors from here on out, he’d hit that mark. Accruing a full service year would put him on track to first reach arbitration after the 2025 season and qualify for free agency for the first time over the 2028-29 offseason.

The timing of the promotion may also be significant for the Orioles. Rodriguez is a consensus top prospect, appearing on Top 100 lists at all three of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN. Teams that carry prospects who appear on at least two of those three lists for a full service year could recoup draft compensation as part of the collective bargaining agreement’s prospect promotion incentive. If Rodriguez logs a complete service year, the O’s would receive an extra pick in the amateur draft if he wins Rookie of the Year in 2023 or secures a top three finish in Cy Young or MVP balloting between 2023-25. Julio Rodriguez is the only player to net his team compensation under that provision so far, doing so as a result of his Rookie of the Year win in 2022.

Rodriguez is already on the 40-man roster, so the club won’t have to make a 40-man transaction. He has a full slate of minor league option years remaining, so it’s possible the O’s send him back to Triple-A Norfolk at some point if they feel he needs continued development time.

Geoff Pontes of Baseball America first reported Rodriguez was being promoted.

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