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Blue Jays Recently Met With Corbin Burnes

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The Blue Jays held a recent in-person meeting with free agent righty Corbin Burnes, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (video link). Toronto was already connected to Burnes earlier in the offseason, but an in-person meeting between the two parties is of some note all the same. Burnes is one of multiple high-end free agents linked to the Jays in recent weeks. Toronto is, of course, one of the remaining bidders for Juan Soto and has also been tied to lefty Max Fried, outfielder Anthony Santander, infielder Willy Adames and fellow infielder Alex Bregman.

There’s a pervading sense in the industry that the Jays are highly motivated, if not desperate to make a splash in the free agent and/or trade market this offseason. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are entering their final seasons of club control. Chris Bassitt is also a free agent next winter. Kevin Gausman is only signed through 2026. Meanwhile, team president Mark Shapiro is entering the final season of his contract, while general manager Ross Atkins is signed through 2026. They’ve now been atop the Jays’ baseball operations hierarchy for nearly a decade but haven’t won a postseason game since 2016 — their first year on the job. Speculation about the pair’s job security has continued to mount as the team has underperformed.

It’s hard to envision a scenario where the Jays put down more than $600MM for Soto and then turn to give Burnes would could be a $200MM+ deal of his own. More likely, the Jays are laying some groundwork for contingency efforts in the event that Soto spurns their offer for one of his other suitors in New York, Boston or Los Angeles. For the same $600MM+ that Soto will command, the Jays could potentially extend Guerrero, sign one of Burnes/Fried and also sign one of Adames/Bregman/Santander. There’s some inherent logic to diversifying the risk when talking about a sum of $600MM+, but it’s also true that players like Burnes, Fried, Adames, Santander and Bregman are also considerably older than the 26-year-old Soto and are likelier to begin declining sooner.

With regard to Burnes in particular, he’d be a clear upgrade to what’s already a talented Jays rotation. Toronto has Gausman, Bassitt, Jose Berrios in the top three spots. Burnes, who just pitched 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the division-rival Orioles, could join that trio and make up one of the best one-through-four combinations in the sport. Right-handers Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez would then compete for the fifth spot. Rodriguez, notably, spent a portion of the ’24 season in the bullpen already. Toronto is generally lacking in experienced rotation depth, so adding a durable workhorse like Burnes — third in the majors in innings and fourth in ERA since 2020 — ought to hold extra appeal.

Burnes — or any of the free agents who rejected a qualifying offer — would require the forfeiture of at least the Blue Jays’ second-highest draft pick and $500K of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency. The Jays reportedly ducked under the luxury tax threshold by a narrow margin this season, though final tax calculations haven’t yet been released. If they end up slightly over the line, they’d forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks and $1MM of international bonus pool space.

The Yankees also met with Burnes late last month. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner has also drawn interest from the Giants and Red Sox. The incumbent Orioles have said they’d love to keep Burnes, but it remains to be seen if new owner David Rubenstein will authorize the kind of spending necessary to retain him. If he does sign elsewhere, the O’s would receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 draft, because Burnes rejected a $21.05MM qualifying offer. They’d receive the same compensation if Santander signs elsewhere after rejecting his own QO, potentially setting the Orioles up for a massive draft in 2025.

Blue Jays Interested In Re-Signing Jordan Romano

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A couple of weeks ago, the Blue Jays opted not to tender a contract to right-hander Jordan Romano, sending him to free agency instead of keeping him around for his final season of club control. But general manager Ross Atkins tells members of the media, including Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic, that the Jays are “interested in him and will be heavily pursuing his return, and hope that that’s a potential reality.”

Romano, 32 in April, had a strong three-year run as the closer in Toronto but is coming off a mostly lost season. From 2021 to 2023, Romano racked up 95 saves for the Jays, tossing 186 innings with a 2.37 earned run average. He had a 30.3% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 42.3% ground ball rate.

But in 2024, he was on and off the injured list due to inflammation in his right elbow. He only made 15 appearances on the year and had a bloated 6.59 ERA in that small sample, only striking out 21% of batters faced. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on that elbow in July and it was initially hoped that he could make a late-season return but that ultimately didn’t come to pass.

Romano made a salary of $7.75MM in 2024 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for the same figure in 2025, since salaries almost never go down in the arbitration system. After Romano’s rough 2024 campaign, the Jays didn’t think it was worth betting that much on a bounceback. Presumably, they also checked in with other clubs to assess trade interest but couldn’t find any willing to both have Romano around that price point and give up something notable in return.

His health is a bit of a question mark as he hasn’t pitched since May, but Atkins says he doesn’t have any concerns going into 2025. Assuming Romano is healthy, the Jays could certainly use him, as their bullpen was a big part of their struggles this year. Toronto relievers posted a collective 4.82 ERA in 2024, a mark that was better than just the Rockies. With the club looking to rebound in 2025, a stronger bullpen will be a necessary step.

Bringing Romano back could be a part of that, though it will naturally be at a lower salary than he made last year. Kirby Yates is another former closer who had some injury problems and he signed a $4.5MM deal with the Rangers last winter. It’s not a perfect comparison since Yates was going into his age-37 season, but he had at least finished the prior season healthy. After missing much of the 2020 through 2022 seasons due to injuries, he made 61 appearances in 2023 with a 3.28 ERA. Romano will be far younger than Yates but with more recent injury troubles. Yates also signed a $5.5MM deal with the Jays going into 2021, his age-34 season, after being hurt for much of 2020. But he ended up undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing that entire season. Greg Holland was one of baseball’s top closers before missing all of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery, then signing a $7MM deal with the Rockies going into 2017.

Perhaps those deals suggest that Romano could earn something a bit below his 2024 salary, maybe with incentives based on his health. At that price range, just about any club could get involved. Even teams with strong bullpens can bump out the guy lowest on the pecking order, so Romano figures to have widespread interest if Atkins’ assessment of his health is correct. The Jays figure to be one of the clubs most motivated to add relief help, based on how last year went. Perhaps Romano would welcome a return since he was born and raised in Markham, just outside Toronto, and has spent his entire big league career with the Jays. However, he should have plenty of other options to consider.

Bidding For Juan Soto Has Reached At Least $600MM

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The floor for Juan Soto’s contract appears to be $600MM. Ken Rosenthal, Evan Drellich and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic report that every team that remains in the Soto bidding has made a formal offer at or above that number.

With multiple $600MM+ offers in hand, there’s not much chance of Soto pivoting to a short-term deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that the four-time All-Star wasn’t interested in taking a shorter term to prioritize his annual earnings. Heyman suggested Soto was seeking a 15-year contract. It’s not clear whether that’ll be on the table, though tonight’s report from The Athletic indicates he’s likely to sign for at least 12 years. That’ll presumably come with one or more opt-out chances as well.

Agent Scott Boras did not comment publicly about contract terms. However, he told reporters this evening that Soto has begun to narrow the field. “We’ve had meetings with a number of franchises. He’s begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we’ll see, but I don’t think anything is imminent in the near future,” Boras said at today’s introductory presser for another of his clients, Blake Snell.

While Soto reportedly fielded interest from 11 teams at the beginning of the offseason, it seems a clear five suitors have emerged: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Most speculation throughout the industry is that he’ll land with one of the New York franchises. To that end, Rosenthal, Drellich and Kuty write that many people around the game expect that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen will refuse to be outbid.

That said, there’s been chatter in recent weeks that the Red Sox are making a serious push. Meanwhile, SNY’s Andy Martino and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link) each suggested last night that the Blue Jays might come in with the highest bid at the end of the day. Reporting has generally cast the Dodgers as something of a long shot, but it’s impossible to count them out on any top-tier free agent.

In any case, Soto seems mere days away from establishing a record for the top net present value in MLB history. That’s currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose deal is valued by MLB just shy of $461MM after accounting for deferrals. There was never much doubt that Soto would beat that, though it was fair to wonder whether the bidding would stop somewhere between $500MM and $600MM.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soto would receive exactly $600MM over 13 years — a number that looks as if it’ll be light. While it doesn’t seem that decision will come within the next 24 hours, there’s a widespread belief that Soto will make his call by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings.

Blue Jays Hire Graham Johnson As Bullpen Coach

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The Blue Jays have hired Graham Johnson to serve as bullpen coach, GM Ross Atkins told reporters (including Shi Davidi of Sportsnet). Atkins also confirmed the previously reported hiring of Lou Iannotti as assistant hitting coach and indicated the team was looking to add an assistant pitching coach to work alongside Pete Walker.

Johnson joins an MLB staff for the first time. He had spent the past couple seasons as pitching coach of the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate. Johnson also worked in the Houston farm system for four years and spent nearly a decade as a pitching instructor at the collegiate level. The Jays reassigned previous bullpen coach Jeff Ware to a different role within the organization at the end of the season.

Toronto will need a significant improvement from the relief group next season. The Jays had a 4.82 earned run average from their bullpen. Only the Rockies had a less effective relief group. Toronto relievers also ranked second from the bottom with a 20.7% strikeout rate. The Jays cut a trio of relievers after the season, waiving Génesis Cabrera and non-tendering Jordan Romano and Dillon Tate. They’ve yet to make any additions. They’ll need to bring in multiple relievers to address a group that is currently led by Chad Green and Erik Swanson.

Blue Jays To Add Lou Iannotti To Coaching Staff

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The Blue Jays are hiring Lou Iannotti to John Schneider’s coaching staff, reports TSN’s Scott Mitchell (X link). Mitchell suggests Iannotti is likely to take an assistant hitting coach role under first-year hitting instructor David Popkins.

Iannotti, 32, had been with the Dodgers as a minor league hitting coordinator. A collegiate catcher at Quinnipiac, he had a very brief stint as a professional player in the independent Frontier League. Iannotti quickly moved into coaching in the lowest levels of the Dodgers’ minor league system. He worked his way up to hitting coach for L.A.’s Double-A affiliate before landing the coordinator role that allowed him to oversee multiple minor league levels. This’ll be his first work on an MLB coaching staff.

The Jays already have Hunter Mense on staff as an assistant hitting coach. He’s a holdover from previous years. The Jays otherwise made changes to their offensive staff. Toronto fired previous hitting coach Guillermo Martinez at the end of the season. Don Mattingly, who’d served as offensive coordinator in addition to bench coach, will only have traditional bench coach responsibilities with Popkins coming on as hitting coach.

Blue Jays Interested In Alex Bregman, Luis Severino

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The Blue Jays are known to be in the Juan Soto bidding, but like all teams, they have to consider backup plans. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet takes a look at their Soto pursuit and notes that they also have interest in Max Fried, Luis Severino, Anthony Santander and Alex Bregman. MLBTR has previously covered their interest in Fried and Santander.

Bregman, 31, is one of the top free agents available this winter. He has a career batting line of .272/.366/.483, which translates to a 135 wRC+, indicating he’s been 35% better than league average at the plate overall. His strikeout rate hasn’t been higher than 13.6% in any of the past six full seasons, barely half of league average. His walk rate dipped a bit in 2024 but has been above par for most of his career.

He also gets strong grades for his third base defense and is willing to move to second if he signs with a club that has a greater need there. His clubhouse and leadership qualities are often lauded by those who have played with him. MLBTR predicted Bregman for a seven-year deal worth $182MM at the start of the offseason. It’s well established that the Astros want him back, but he’s also been connected to the Tigers, Red Sox, Phillies and now Blue Jays.

For the Jays, third base and second base are both fairly unsettled. Ernie Clement was the primary option at the hot corner in 2024 and he had a serviceable season. His .263/.284/.408 batting line was slightly below average, translating to a 94 wRC+. But he also stole 12 bases and got strong grades for his glovework at third and shortstop, as well as brief looks at second base and left field.

The total package added up to 2.2 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and Clement is still on the roster, but he shouldn’t stand in the way of someone like Bregman coming aboard. If Bregman took over as the everyday guy at the hot corner, it could move Clement into a utility role, which could still allow him to contribute fairly regularly.

At second base, Spencer Horwitz and Davis Schneider got decent chunks of the playing time, alongside the now-departed Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Horwitz has hit well in his major league career so far but is not a natural second baseman, only moving there since his first base spot is taken by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. A lot of the designated hitter plate appearances went to Justin Turner in 2024, who is no longer with the team. Perhaps that frees up Horwitz and Guerrero to share that spot and first base in 2025, depending on what other moves the Jays make this winter. Schneider is coming off a down season and can also play left field.

The Jays have some other players on the roster capable of playing either third or second base, including Addison Barger, Orelvis Martínez, Will Wagner and Leo Jiménez, but no one in that group has even 70 games of major league experience. With the Jays looking to quickly bounce back from a poor 2024 campaign, there’s logic in going for an established major leaguer like Bregman as opposed to hoping that someone in that group takes a step forward. The Jays have also been tied to shortstop Willy Adames, who is reportedly willing to move to third base with his new club if they already have a shortstop. The Jays have Bo Bichette at short but he’s only one year from free agency, so that’s a move that could potentially help in the short and long term.

The interest in Severino aligns with the club’s other rotation pursuits. As mentioned, they’ve been tied to Fried as well as Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell, though Snell is now off the board due to his agreement with the Dodgers. Severino once seemed like a budding ace with the Yankees but he didn’t pitch much from 2019 to 2021 due to injuries. He was able to pitch partial seasons in 2022 and 2023 but with inconsistent results.

He’s coming off a solid bounceback year with the Mets. He made 32 starts and tossed 182 innings, his first time throwing more than 102 innings since 2018. On top of the quantity, there was also some quality, as Severino allowed 3.91 earned runs per innings. His 21.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate were all pretty close to league average.

Severino isn’t as exciting as Burnes or Fried but he also won’t cost as much. MLBTR predicted Burnes for a $200MM guarantee and Fried a bit behind at $156MM. Severino, on the other hand, was projected for a three-year deal worth $51MM.

The Jays have a veteran rotation nucleus consisting of José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt. Another spot is likely ticketed to Bowden Francis after his strong second half. Options for the fifth spot include Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss but there’s sense in the Jays adding. Rodríguez has plenty of relief experience and the Jays need help in the bullpen, so he could be pushed there, at least until an injury opens up a need in the rotation. Bloss has less than 12 big league innings and only 112 in the minors, so he could get some more seasoning in Triple-A until a big league opportunity arises.

On the financial side of things, RosterResource projects the Jays for a payroll of $189MM next year. President Mark Shapiro has suggested the club will end up with a roughly similar payroll as they did in 2024. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged their Opening Day figure at $225MM last year, so that could leave them with about $35MM of wiggle room.

Adding one of these notable free agents could certainly fit into that window, though Soto would be a unique case. The average annual value of his contract will certainly eclipse that number but it’s been reported by Nicholson-Smith that the Jays would make an exception for Soto, willing to stretch the budget further than they would otherwise.

Each of Soto, Bregman, Severino, Fried, Burnes, Santander and Adames rejected a qualifying offer, so the associated penalties will also have to be a consideration. The Jays seemingly ducked under the competitive balance tax in 2024 with their midseason selloff, though it’s not yet official. If that proves to be the case, the Jays would have to surrender their second-best pick in the upcoming draft as well as $500K of international bonus pool space for signing one of these players.

Blue Jays, Michael Stefanic Agree To Minor League Deal

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Infielder Michael Stefanic and the Blue Jays are in agreement on a minor league deal. Stefanic’s agent Nate Heisler of Klutch Sports relayed the news on X while Stefanic himself took to Instagram to thank the Angels, their fans and his former colleagues for his time with that club, in addition to expressing his excitement about his new opportunity.

Stefanic, 29 in February, was an undrafted free agent back in 2018. The Angels signed him at that time and he started to garner attention as a minor leaguer due to his plate discipline and multi-positional abilities, though a clear lack of power. In 2021, he took 554 trips to the plate in the minors, walking in 9.4% of them while only striking out 13.9% of the time.

His home run total spiked to 17 that year, even though he had only hit three over the 2018 and 2019 seasons combined. Perhaps that was due to him getting up to the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but his .336/.408/.493 line that year still translated to a 132 wRC+, indicating he was 32% better than league average.

Baseball America ranked him the #22 prospect in the Angels’ system going into 2022 and he went on to make his major league debut that year. He has been sent to the plate 264 times over the past three big league seasons, walking in 8.7% of those while striking out just 15.2% of the time. But he hasn’t yet hit a home run, leading to a fairly empty slash line of .232/.317/.275 and 72 wRC+. He has continued to hit in the minors, however, with a combined line of .349/.444/.456 and 133 wRC+ over the past three years.

That wasn’t enough to get him much run at the major league level and he exhausted his final option year in 2024. The Angels passed him through waivers and outrighted him last month, but Toronto will give him a non-roster gig. Stefanic has also played every position on the diamond except for center field and catcher in his professional career, perhaps giving him a shot at carving at a utility or bench role.

The Jays have plenty of uncertainty in their position player group at present. First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette are both a year away from free agency. Right fielder George Springer is now 35 years old and has just two years left on his deal. Second base, third base and left field are fairly open. Players like Spencer Horwitz, Ernie Clement, Will Wagner, Nathan Lukes, Leo Jiménez, Davis Schneider, Jonatan Clase, Orelvis Martínez, Addison Barger, Joey Loperfido and Steward Berroa are all on the 40-man roster but Clement and Schneider are the only ones of thar group with more than 112 games of MLB experience.

If Stefanic can earn his way onto the roster, he is out of options but he has just a bit more than a year of service time, meaning he can be cheaply retained beyond 2025 if he has a roster spot at season’s end.

Latest On Juan Soto

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While we’ve started to see some movement in the pitching market, with Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both coming off the board this week, we’ve yet to see a prominent bat come off the board. Some of that is just the naturally slow pace of MLB’s free agency structure, but there’s also surely an element of Juan Soto holding things up to an extent. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this will be a protracted free agent saga that lingers well into the new year.

Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media reported earlier this week that five clubs had made offers to Soto: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. There’s been some back-and-forth reporting as to whether offers from each have been formally submitted, but semantics aside, that quintet appears to be the top set of bidders for Soto at the moment.

Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that Soto and agent Scott Boras asked for initial offers to be submitted by Thanksgiving, so even if one of those clubs hasn’t yet submitted a formal offer just yet, it’s likely only a matter of hours before said offer is presented. Per Blum, there’s a growing belief that Soto could make a decision at or even before this year’s Winter Meetings, which take place from Dec. 8-11 in Dallas.

It should be noted that the current wave of offers being submitted is not a collection of “best and final” offers. With any free agent of this magnitude, there will be plenty of back-and-forth negotiations. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic tweets that this initial wave of offers is considered “preliminary,” with an additional round of offers likely coming in next week. Talks will intensify as teams are weeded out in the run-up to the Winter Meetings. Kuty, like Blum, suggests that landmark offseason event as a likely endpoint to Soto’s free agency.

Of the five known suitors, the Dodgers are perhaps the least likely. That might’ve been true even before Los Angeles struck their five-year deal with Snelll last night — one that guarantees him $182MM (with some deferred salary but also a huge up-front $52MM signing bonus). ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported several weeks back that while the Dodgers will be in the mix they’re not expected to chase Soto at all costs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offered a similar thinking last night in his breakdown of the Snell deal, suggesting that while the Dodgers will of course remain apprised of where Soto’s bidding lands, they could also be simply trying to drive up the price for more serious bidders in New York, Boston and Toronto.

To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Red Sox are indeed quite serious in their pursuit of Soto. They’ve sought to sell Soto on the organization’s history of prominent left-handed hitters who’ve taken advantage of Fenway Park’s Green Monster and also enlisted franchise icons Pedro Martinez and David Ortiz to pitch the free agent slugger on the team’s history of touted stars from Soto’s native Dominican Republic.

Meanwhile, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe adds that the Sox don’t view Soto and adding a top-of-the-rotation arm as an either-or scenario. Even if they succeeded in landing Soto, the Sox would do so in simultaneous pursuit of a top-end starter. Red Sox president Sam Kennedy already signaled a willingness to exceed the luxury tax, and Speier notes that the Sox don’t view the $241MM tax threshold as any sort of hard cap. They’re currently $70MM shy of that level, per RosterResource’s estimates.

It’s not yet clear whether any other clubs could jump into the mix late in the bidding process. Phillies owner John Middleton stated earlier in the winter that he didn’t mind being a “stalking horse” on Soto, and there were reports that the Phils planned to meet with him at some point, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Monday that the Phillies have yet to even speak to Boras about Soto specifically. The Giants were an oft-speculated suitor heading into the winter, but they’ve not yet met with Soto and reports have since indicated they may actually scale back payroll rather than spend as aggressively as some anticipated.

Blue Jays Interested In Anthony Santander, Corbin Burnes

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The Blue Jays are interested free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale also mentions that the club is pursuing top pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. The club has previously been connected to top free agent starters such as Fried and Blake Snell in recent weeks, so Burnes being on the list as well is aligned with those interests.

The connection with Santander is a sensible one. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco predicted the Jays to sign Santander when our Top 50 Free Agents list came out earlier this month. The Jays are a sensible fit for an outfielder and a potent bat, two boxes that would be checked by Santander.

Right now, the Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as the two established big leaguers in their outfield. Varsho underwent shoulder surgery in September and it’s possible that he’ll miss the opening of the 2025 season. Springer is now 35 years old and has seen his wRC+ decline for five straight years now. He had a 155 wRC+ in 2019 but that number has gone to 143, 140, 133, 104 and 95 in recent years.

In addition to those two, the Jays have plenty of other theoretical options to take playing time on the turf. Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger and Steward Berroa are all outfield options on the 40-man roster, but there’s not much certainty there. Schneider is the only one with more than 81 big league games on his track record and he’s coming off a frustrating season. In short, there’s plenty of room for the Jays to make an external addition.

More broadly, some home run pop would be welcome in the lineup. The Jays were middle of the pack in terms of wRC+ and on-base percentage in 2024 but were 26th in the majors in terms of home runs, ahead of just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox. Only six guys on the club got to double digits with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the only Blue Jay to get to 20 dingers on the year.

Santander can certainly provide that power, having just hit 44 home runs this past year. With 105 homers over the past three seasons, he’s sixth in the majors for that time frame behind star sluggers Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. The Jays have a bunch of key contributors who hit from the right side, such as Guerrero, Springer, Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk, so Santander’s switch-hitting ability likely adds to the appeal. He’s not a great defender but he’s slashed .244/.317/.478 over the past three years for a 124 wRC+ and the Jays don’t have a full-time designated hitter, which could allow them to limit the downside of his glovework.

It seems fair to conclude that Santander would be a fallback plan in the event the Jays don’t succeed in landing Juan Soto. The Jays are one of the clubs still plausibly in the mix for Soto, with offers expected to come in this week.

Soto ticks a lot of the same boxes as Santander, as he’s a lefty-swinging outfielder with power, but he’s the more attractive free agent for a few reasons. Soto is far younger, as he is now 26 while Santander is 30. Soto’s elite eye at the plate is also in a different stratosphere compared to Santander. Soto’s 18.8% walk rate in his career is roughly double a normal league average and higher than his 17% strikeout rate. Santander, meanwhile, takes a free pass at a subpar 7.3% clip.

Based on those differences, Soto is going to be Plan A for a lot of clubs, who will then view Santander as a potential safety alongside other free agent outfielders like Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar and others. While MLBTR predicted Soto for a $600MM guarantee, Santander was projected for a deal of $80MM over four years, obviously far more affordable.

Santander has been connected to the Yankees this winter as one of many players the Yanks could turn to if they don’t get Soto and the Jays likely view their situation similarly. Soto is widely expected to secure a record-breaking contract of some kind, so teams will naturally want to assess their payroll ledgers and consider the domino effects of such a contract before pivoting to other moves.

On the pitching side, the Jays have been connected to a few starting pitchers already, as mentioned. The Jays have a veteran front three in their rotation, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt all under contract for 2025. Bowden Francis seems to have earned a rotation gig with his strong second half in 2024. Candidates for the fifth spot include Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss, but Rodríguez also has plenty of relief experience and could be in the bullpen. Bloss still has options and limited experience, not having thrown much in the majors nor the minors.

Adding a pitcher like Fried or Snell or Burnes would obviously strengthen the group. Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past five years, though he hasn’t been quite as dominant over the past two. From 2020 to 2022, he had a 2.62 earned run average, 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. In the two most recent seasons, it’s been a 3.15 ERA, with his strikeout rate falling to 24.3%.

That’s a bit of a concern but Burnes is still arguably the top pitcher available in free agency this offseason. MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, with Snell at $160MM over five and Fried at $156MM over six.

There are many ways it could play out but it seems the Jays are setting their sights high after missing out on Ohtani last winter and then having a disappointing season in 2024. It’s also been suggested that the Jays could be quite aggressive this offseason since there are a few potential pivot points coming up. Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt are all slated for free agency for 2025, while team president Mark Shapiro and manager John Schneider are each going into the final years of their respective deals as well. General manager Ross Atkins is under contract through 2026 though it’s been suggested that he may be under pressure to deliver in the upcoming season in order to stick around.

The Jays had an Opening Day payroll of $225MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with RosterResource currently projecting them for $189MM in 2025. Shapiro had previously said he didn’t expect the club’s payroll to significantly increase or decrease relative to 2024, so the Jays could have something in the vicinity of $35MM to spend this offseason on a notable free agent.

Some reporting, including from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, has pointed to ownership perhaps having a Soto and non-Soto budget. The club was apparently willing to go to greater financial extremes to sign Ohtani last winter but didn’t end up redistributing that money to other players after he signed with the Dodgers. Similarly, the payroll ceiling could be moved up to accommodate a Soto deal but not otherwise.

Regardless of how much money they end up spending this winter, draft pick forfeiture will be another cost the club will have to consider. Each of Soto, Burnes, Fried and Santander rejected a qualifying offer, as did other potential targets like Hernández or Willy Adames. Snell wasn’t eligible to receive a QO this offseason because he already rejected one a year ago.

The Jays are believed to have just snuck under the competitive balance tax in 2024 by trading away some veterans at the deadline, which impacts their penalties for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. A tax-paying club has to forfeit $1MM of international bonus pool space as well as its second- and fifth-highest pick in the next draft. If the Jays did indeed go under the CBT line in 2024, those penalties will instead be $500K of pool space and just the second-best draft pick. In recent years, the Jays have been willing to sign players who rejected qualifying offers, doing so with both Springer and Bassitt.

Teams Expected To Make Offers To Juan Soto This Week

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The sweepstakes to land superstar free agent Juan Soto is set to enter its next phase, as ESPN’s Buster Olney reported this afternoon that teams are expected to begin sending offers to the outfielder’s camp this week. Olney adds that to this point in the process, Soto has been meeting with teams and allowing Soto and the officials of interested clubs to get to know each other. The Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Dodgers are all known to have met with Soto at this point. The Phillies have also been reported to be planning a meeting with Soto, while the Giants, Rays, and Royals are all known to be among the teams to have reached out to Soto as well, though no meetings between Soto and any of those clubs are publicly known to have occurred and the Royals already reportedly view the offseason’s top free agent as outside of their comfort zone.

Of course, that aforementioned list of teams is surely not exhaustive. As-of-yet unreported clubs have surely contacted and perhaps even met with Soto as he prepares to sign what figures to be the largest contract in MLB history in terms of net present value this winter. As a two-time MVP finalist and career .285/.421/.532 hitter who’s hitting the market ahead of his age-26 season, Soto stands as the rare free agent who would make sense for virtually any contention timeline and stand as an upgrade to all 30 ball clubs, leaving his market to be limited more by teams’ willingness to spend enough to land him rather than positional or competitive fit.

The general consensus around the game seems to be that the Yankees and Mets are the favorites for Soto’s services, as both deep-pocketed New York teams appear motivated as the Yankees look to retain their key addition from last offseason who helped take the club from missing the playoffs in 2023 to an AL pennant this past season while the Mets hope to build on a 2024 campaign that saw them reach the NLCS for the first time since 2015. Soto naturally has a place in the Yankees lineup as their incumbent right fielder, though he might make even more sense for a Mets club that could push Starling Marte to DH in order to accommodate the addition of Soto given the fact that the acquisition of Soto forced the Yankees to use Aaron Judge as their everyday center fielder last year.

That doesn’t mean the other teams in the mix should be counted out, however. The Phillies and Dodgers both already need outfield help this winter and could further bolster the already-excellent lineups that made them the class of the NL this year by landing Soto. The Blue Jays figure to be especially motivated after falling just short in last winter’s Ohtani sweepstakes and subsequently missing the playoffs in 2024, while the Red Sox appear ready to resume spending in accordance with their market size this winter after spending the past several winters on the periphery of free agency. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at all 30 clubs in the context of the Soto sweepstakes of Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

While Soto has emphasized the importance of team competitiveness in his decision-making and there have been questions about whether he may prefer a team on the east coast given his offseason homes in Fort Lauderdale, Florida and the Dominican Republic, the ultimate factor that figures to separate Soto’s suitors is money. With offers expected to be made over the course of the next week, it’s possible that previously-unknown suitors emerge as contenders for the star’s services or currently reported upon suitors fall behind in the bidding process. It’s also possible that the process begins to move quickly once offers begin to roll in; MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that the belief around the game is that Soto could sign during or even before the Winter Meetings, which run from December 9-12 in Dallas next month.

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