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Blue Jays, Red Sox To Meet With Juan Soto, Scott Boras

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7:54pm: There is currently no meeting scheduled between Soto and the Giants, tweets Jayson Stark of the Athletic.

11:10 am: The list of known teams who have upcoming meetings with Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras continues to grow. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that both the Blue Jays and Red Sox are set to meet with Soto and his representative this week. They’ll join Mets and Yankees in that regard. Passan adds that the Jays are “serious about adding a star” to the lineup alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Soto unsurprisingly tops their wishlist.

Similarly, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman paints the Jays as a legitimate contender in the Soto bidding. Toronto was famously willing to put forth the same offer that the Dodgers did to lure Shohei Ohtani to Los Angeles last winter, and Heyman adds that the Jays tried to trade for Soto last winter as well before the Yankees ultimately acquired him from the Padres. Both reports peg Toronto as a motivated buyer on the heels of a disastrous 2024 season that saw them finish in the AL East cellar.

From a payroll vantage point, the Jays should have a clear path to making a compelling offer. Jose Berrios and Yariel Rodriguez are the only players the Blue Jays have signed beyond the 2026 season — the latter never earning more than $8MM annually. RosterResource projects Toronto’s 2025 payroll at around $197MM at the moment — a good ways shy of last year’s franchise-record $225MM Opening Day mark. That projected number could drop even further with several non-tender/trade candidates still on the roster (e.g. Dillon Tate, Erik Swanson, Jordan Romano, Zach Pop). By 2026, the Blue Jays have under $75MM in guarantees on the books.

Toronto, of course, hopes to extend the aforementioned Guerrero and would need a massive offer to do so, but a long-term payroll ledger with Soto and Guerrero seems plenty doable given the lack of other commitments. Shortstop Bo Bichette could be another extension candidate, but he’s a tough case for a long-term deal after an injury-shortened season that included career-worst production at the plate. At the very least, it’s easy to see how the Blue Jays could make an aggressive push and competitive bid for Soto, as they did with Ohtani.

That’s generally true of the Red Sox as well, though their short-term books aren’t quite so clean. Rafael Devers, Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela are the only players signed truly long-term in Boston, but the Red Sox will still be paying Masataka Yoshida and Trevor Story notable salaries through the 2027 season at least. That said, the Sox have a much smaller arbitration class and don’t have the specter of a superstar’s potential departure hanging over them, as the Jays do with Guerrero. They’re projected for a payroll around $136MM in 2025 (again, via RosterResource) — modest relative to their franchise-record spending levels.

That said, the Red Sox have curbed spending in recent seasons. They did open the 2022 season with a $206MM payroll but have otherwise spent in the $170-180MM range since 2020. Back in 2018, when they last won a World Series, the Sox opened the season at $233MM. They followed with a $236MM in 2019 (both figures via Cot’s). Signing Soto would require a willingness to return to those 2018-19 levels — if not exceed them — but there are some signals the organization is willing to do just that.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has been vocal about his intention of “deliver[ing] the team that’s capable of winning the AL East and making a deep playoff run,” adding that the Sox need to be willing to be big players in the free agent and trade markets in order to do so. Skeptics will call back to chairman Tom Werner’s regrettable and oft-mocked “full throttle” comments from an offseason ago, but Breslow has taken a more direct and repeated stance on his intent to be active in both markets.

The Sox have multiple areas they’ll need to target, however, as Breslow has also voiced his intent to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. (They’ve also been linked to Max Fried, further lending credence to the idea that they’re willing to spend this winter.) Soto won’t accomplish that specific goal, nor will he help to balance out a heavily left-handed lineup (another of Breslow’s stated objectives), but that’s of little consequence. Free agents as young and impactful as Soto only come around every few decades; adding him to the lineup is an endeavor unique unto itself, and the rest of a team’s given goals can take a backseat to such a rare pursuit.

Gosuke Katoh Retires, Joins Blue Jays Front Office

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After 10 years in affiliated ball and two seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league, infielder Gosuke Katoh is trading in his playing equipment for a gig behind the scenes. Days after announcing his retirement, Katoh revealed on his Instagram account that he has taken a job in the Blue Jays front office.

Katoh, 30, was born and raised in California, moving from the Bay Area to San Diego as a young child. The Yankees selected him out of high school in the second round of the 2013 draft, and he spent the next seven years working his way up the minor league ladder in their system. He elected minor league free agency after the 2019 campaign and proceeded to bounce between the Marlins, Padres, and Blue Jays organizations before finally getting the chance to make his major league debut. He made Toronto’s Opening Day roster in 2022, appearing in eight games before he was designated for assignment in early May. Across 11 plate appearances, he went 1-for-7 with three walks and a sacrifice bunt, scoring twice and striking out only once. The Mets claimed him off of waivers, and although they briefly recalled him from Triple-A for a handful of days, he never appeared in another big league game. New York DFA’d and outrighted him in June and released him at the end of the year.

Following the 2022 season, Katoh entered the NPB draft. (As a Japanese citizen, he had no choice but to be drafted before he could sign with an NPB club.) The Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, his favorite team growing up, selected him in the third round, and he played for the Fighters in 2023 and ’24. Over those two years, he appeared in 90 games for the Fighters and another 64 with their minor league farm team in the Eastern League. Unfortunately, he had a particularly rough year at the plate this past season. Over 28 NPB games, he slashed .172/.238/.190 with one run, one RBI, and one extra-base hit.

Last Sunday, Katoh announced his retirement on Instagram, and yesterday, he revealed that he’ll be reuniting with the Blue Jays to take on an as-of-yet-unspecified role in the front office. The team has yet to confirm the news itself or provide any further details about Katoh’s role.

Blue Jays Release Emmanuel Ramirez

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The Blue Jays released reliever Emmanuel Ramirez, according to the MLB.com transaction log. Toronto had designated the right-hander for assignment on Tuesday when they claimed Michael Petersen off waivers from Miami.

Ramirez is also a former waiver claim from the Marlins. Toronto grabbed the 30-year-old from the Fish in early September. They optioned him to Triple-A and kept him there for the remainder of the season. Ramirez did not throw a pitch for the Jays. His major league experience consists of 15 appearances with Miami earlier in the year. He tossed 20 2/3 innings with an earned run average approaching 7.00.

Things went a bit smoother in Triple-A. Ramirez combined for a 4.20 ERA across 45 frames between the two organizations. He punched out nearly 30% of batters faced against a manageable 9% walk rate. Ramirez flashed a three-pitch mix in his limited MLB look. He leaned most heavily on a 94 MPH fastball and a mid-80s splitter that generated a lot of whiffs. He’ll likely land a minor league contract somewhere.

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

Giants, Blue Jays Showing Interest In Ha-Seong Kim

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Ha-Seong Kim is finding interest in free agency’s opening days. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that the Giants have identified him as an early target. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the Blue Jays are also showing interest as they evaluate infield possibilities.

While this is the first substantive tie between Kim and the Giants, that fit had been speculated long before he hit free agency. Giants skipper Bob Melvin managed the infielder for two seasons with the Padres. President of baseball operations Buster Posey has called shortstop a target area. Improving defensively seems like a particular priority, as landing a shortstop could allow San Francisco to slide Tyler Fitzgerald to second base.

Willy Adames is the top free agent shortstop. He could land a six- or seven-year contract. Kim seemed to be on track for four or five years as recently as a few months ago. A season-ending shoulder injury and postseason labrum surgery make it likelier he’ll take a short-term deal. The Padres opted not to issue a qualifying offer, which Kim would almost certainly have declined if he were healthy. San Diego president of baseball ops A.J. Preller has floated a nebulous timeline for the 29-year-old’s return, suggesting he could be out between May and July. Kim’s agent Scott Boras has indicated he could be available earlier in the season, potentially before the end of April.

Kim’s value is driven largely by his glove. He has proven to be a plus defender throughout the infield, at least when he’s at full strength. While some teams could be concerned about his arm in the immediate aftermath of a significant shoulder procedure, Kim had shown a sufficient arm before the surgery to play on the left side of the infield. He’s a roughly league average hitter, compensating for middling power with good contact skills and strong walk rates. Kim hit .233/.330/.370 with 11 homers and 22 stolen bases during his platform year.

He’s also a plus defender at second base, where the Jays would ostensibly target him. Nicholson-Smith reported last night that Toronto had also checked in on Gleyber Torres. Toronto has Bo Bichette returning at shortstop. Between second and third base, they have a handful of internal options who are light on MLB experience (e.g. Will Wagner, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Ernie Clement). Toronto also used Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sporadically at the hot corner.

MLBTR predicted Kim for a one-year pillow contract valued around $12MM. His camp could try to secure a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out after next season, though it’s not clear if teams are willing to take that risk coming off the injury. The Padres have expressed interest in bringing him back, while the Braves and Mariners are speculative possibilities to pursue middle infield help.

Rays Among Teams To Have Reached Out To Soto

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The Rays are among the teams that have reached out to Juan Soto’s camp since the opening of free agency last week, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman lists a much less surprising additional six teams that have shown interest: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox.

The mere mention of the Rays as a possible Soto suitor is going to be met with plenty of skepticism. It’d be a shock if they made a legitimate push for the market’s top free agent. The Rays have tried to land an elite free agent at least once before, as they reportedly made an offer in the $150MM range to Freddie Freeman before he signed with the Dodgers. That wasn’t too far off the price Freeman ultimately landed, but any offers to Soto would be in a different stratosphere. He should handily top $500MM and could secure a contract between $600MM and $700MM.

While it’s fair to assume the Rays themselves aren’t optimistic about their chances, this is illustrative that they have some money to at least dabble in the middle of free agency. The Rays opened this past season with a payroll around $98MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve got a little less than $40MM in guaranteed commitments for next year (assuming Wander Franco remains on the restricted list and is not paid). Their arbitration class is projected around $25MM, though they could knock that to the $15MM range with a few non-tenders. Trades of Brandon Lowe or Yandy Díaz would subtract another $10.5MM or $10MM, respectively.

None of that is to say they should be perceived as a realistic threat to the big-market teams on Soto. They’ll probably be more active in free agency than many fans might expect given their general spending habits, though. Another mid-tier strike akin to the $40MM Zach Eflin deal from two offseasons ago could be on the table. Any free agent pursuits are complicated by their uncertain stadium situation after Tropicana Field was severely damaged by Hurricane Milton.

The other teams known to have some interest in Soto are all expected. The Yankees and Mets are widely perceived as the favorites. The Dodgers are at least tied to virtually every free agent of note. The news that Mookie Betts is likely moving back to the middle infield is going to fuel speculation about L.A. making a run at Soto. Giants baseball operations president Buster Posey has spoken about wanting to land a star. The Blue Jays were in the running for Shohei Ohtani last winter. The Red Sox have indicated they could be more active in free agency than they’ve been over the past few winters, although a splash in the rotation market seems much likelier than them landing Soto.

The New York Post reported last week that 11 teams had been in contact with Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation on the first day of the offseason. That leaves at least four unknown clubs, though Heyman casts some doubt on the Nationals and Cubs as possibilities. Heyman suggests that Washington is unlikely to spend at the level necessary to bring Soto back. He writes that Chicago’s offseason plans are more geared towards pitching at the moment.

Soto’s free agency should carry for multiple weeks. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this afternoon that the four-time All-Star plans to have an in-person meeting with the ownership group of each team making a serious pursuit.

Jays GM: Bichette Trade “An Easy No”

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The Blue Jays have no interest in rebuilding after this year’s last place finish. Toronto made that clear by only dealing rentals or role players (i.e. Isiah Kiner-Falefa) at the deadline. As part of that renewed effort to contend, general manager Ross Atkins shot down the possibility of a Bo Bichette trade.

Asked by MLB Network’s Jon Morosi how he’d respond to inquiries from other teams on Bichette, Atkins replied that it’d be “an easy no” on the Jays’ end (X link). The GM has downplayed the possibility of moving his shortstop or infield mate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a few occasions in recent months.

It’s a logical stance for the team. While Bichette is entering the final year of his contract, a trade this winter would be selling at the low point of his value. The two-time All-Star is coming off a terrible season. He hit .225/.277/.322 over 336 plate appearances. Bichette had three injured list stints and underwent postseason surgery to address a fractured right middle finger. The Jays will hope for a return to the form he showed between 2019-23, when he was among the best shortstops in baseball.

Bichette is under contract for $16.5MM next year. It’s the final season of the three-year deal that he signed to buy out his arbitration window. A rebound would position him to cash in as a free agent when he enters his age-28 campaign. He and Guerrero are both on track for free agency next winter. It looks highly unlikely the Jays will keep both players for the long term.

As they try to turn things around in 2025, the Jays will pencil Bichette back in at shortstop. They’ll need to make other moves to improve after a 74-88 showing. Upgrading a bullpen that ranked 29th in MLB with a 4.82 ERA is the most obvious target area. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that the Jays are also going to be involved in the starting pitching market.

Toronto projects for a starting five of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodríguez. Right-hander Jake Bloss, acquired from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi deadline deal, might be the top depth option. It’s not a bad group, but Rodríguez and Francis haven’t pitched full seasons as starters. Adding a more established starter could have a trickle-down impact on the ’pen, as Rodríguez worked in both capacities and could excel in a multi-inning relief role if the Jays added to their rotation.

On the position player side, the outfield stands as the biggest question. Toronto doesn’t have a clear starter in left field. George Springer is penciled in as the top option in right field, but he’s coming off a middling year at age 35. Daulton Varsho is ticketed for the lion’s share of playing time in center field. They’ll probably need a short-term stopgap with Varsho recovering from September rotator cuff surgery. Atkins told MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian and Keegan Matheson (X link) that the Jays don’t expect Varsho to be ready for Opening Day, though it doesn’t sound as if he should be sidelined too far into the season.

Atkins indicated the Jays aren’t likely to make a big move behind the plate, telling Bastian and Matheson that adding a catcher is “not a priority” (X link). Toronto is set to give the bulk of playing time to Alejandro Kirk. They reacquired Tyler Heineman via late-season waiver claim to serve as Kirk’s backup.

It does seem they’re open to adding at either second or third base, however. Nicholson-Smith reports that the Jays have shown early interest in the top free agent second baseman, Gleyber Torres. The Yankees allowed Torres to hit the market without a qualifying offer, so a signing team will not forfeit draft compensation. There’s a wide range of free agent outcomes for Torres, who hits free agency coming off a relative down year. Most of that can be traced to a dismal April, as he hit well from May onward and continued to produce during New York’s pennant run. He has a case for three or potentially four years going into his age-28 season, but the infielder could prefer a shorter-term arrangement to get back to free agency after a better overall walk year.

Toronto has a collection of internal second base options, none of whom has a ton of MLB experience. Will Wagner is probably the internal favorite after impressing in 24 games to close his rookie season. Leo Jiménez, Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement could also vie for playing time. Torres brings a higher floor than that group. Atkins and his staff will weigh whether they want to allocate significant resources to the keystone when they have so many other areas to address over the next few weeks.

Blue Jays Believed To Have Gotten Under Luxury Tax Threshold

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According to a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, the Blue Jays are thought to have gotten their 2024 player payroll below the first competitive balance tax threshold of $237MM. However, that will not be confirmed until later this offseason when the commissioner’s office calculates each team’s final payroll and formally announces which clubs will have to pay luxury tax penalties for the 2024 season.

The Blue Jays came into the season with a luxury tax payroll approximately $11MM above the first threshold, but they shaved some money off the books by trading several players ahead of the deadline. It’s also worth keeping in mind that publicly available payroll estimates are exactly that – estimates.

According to the estimates at RosterResource, 10 teams (including the Blue Jays) are in line to pay the luxury tax this January. The Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Astros, Giants, and Rangers are certain to be penalized, while the Blue Jays and Cubs are close enough that they could potentially slip under the $237MM threshold in the final calculations. RosterResource has Toronto’s final 2024 luxury tax payroll at $240.4MM and Chicago’s at $238.4MM. While neither the Blue Jays nor the Cubs would have to pay a particularly high penalty for their modest overages (if they do in fact go over), the Blue Jays, in particular, could benefit from resetting their penalties. They paid the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history last season. Luxury tax penalties increase when a team goes over the first threshold for a second consecutive season and increase again when a team goes over for a third consecutive season. Unless the Blue Jays are confidently planning to decrease payroll this winter, it would make a big difference if they could reset their penalties this year. After all, a 30% tax on a few million dollars in overages wouldn’t be that big of a deal for Toronto, but the potential for a 50% tax (the penalty for a third-time offender) next year and beyond could significantly hamper offseason spending.

What’s more, if the Blue Jays get under the luxury tax threshold, they would only lose their second-highest draft pick (and not their second and fifth-highest picks) if they sign a free agent who received the qualifying offer this winter. Similarly, they would only lose $500K of international bonus pool money rather than $1MM. Perennial high-spenders, like the World Series champion Dodgers, understand that it’s worth losing a few draft picks and some international bonus pool money in order to sign the best major league players and field the most competitive major league team. However, one can understand why the Blue Jays, who finished 74-88 in 2024 and would likely only be a few million over the luxury tax threshold (if they went over at all), would prefer not to be so harshly penalized.

There is no reason to believe the Blue Jays are entering a rebuilding or retooling phase after their disappointing 2024 season. Instead, it seems more likely they will try to contend once again in their final season of team control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. As they attempt to do so, it would certainly help if they don’t have to be quite so concerned about signing a QO free agent or bringing next year’s payroll above the first luxury tax threshold ($241MM in 2025). Davidi notes that team president Mark Shapiro doesn’t see the team’s payroll “either growing or decreasing in a big way,” but that still leaves for the team to sign at least one QO free agent and possibly eclipse the first tier of the CBT. RosterResource estimates that Toronto’s luxury tax payroll for 2025 is currently $211.2MM, approximately $29.2MM lower than this past year’s estimated total.

Blue Jays Claim Michael Petersen, Outright Genesis Cabrera

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The Blue Jays announced they’ve claimed reliever Michael Petersen from the Marlins. Toronto outrighted Génesis Cabrera and Luis Frías off the 40-man roster. Both players elected free agency. Toronto also designated righty Emmanuel Ramírez for assignment.

Petersen is on the move for the second time in a few months. Miami grabbed the right-hander off waivers from the Dodgers in September. He allowed four runs across 5 2/3 innings to finish the year. Petersen had made 11 appearances with the Dodgers. He closed his debut campaign with a 5.95 earned run average through 19 2/3 innings.

The 30-year-old Petersen had much better numbers in 33 innings at the Triple-A level. He posted a 1.64 ERA while striking out a massive 35.2% of opponents. The native of the United Kingdom still has a couple options remaining, so he’ll serve as a bullpen depth piece if the Jays keep him on the 40-man roster.

Cabrera’s tenure in Toronto ends after a season and a half. The Jays acquired the southpaw from the Cardinals midway through the ’23 season. Cabrera pitched well down the stretch and returned for a second season. The results were solid enough, as he posted a 3.59 ERA while logging 62 2/3 relief innings. Cabrera had a subpar 18.5% strikeout rate and walked nearly 11% of his opponents, though. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $2.5MM salary if tendered a contract for his final arbitration year. The Jays evidently weren’t willing to pay that price given Cabrera’s shaky K/BB profile.

Toronto grabbed Frías off waivers from the Diamondbacks late in the year. The 6’3″ righty was blown up for eight runs in 3 1/3 frames. He has a 7.38 ERA over 58 big league appearances. Frías was a reasonably well-regarded prospect who throws in the mid-90s, but he hasn’t shown any kind of strike-throwing consistency in the majors.

Ramírez, 30, was another late-season waiver acquisition. He came over from Miami in early September. Ramírez didn’t make an appearance for the Jays after allowing a near-7.00 ERA over 15 games for the Fish. He’ll presumably find himself on waivers in the next few days.

Mets Claim Luis De Los Santos

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The Mets announced that they have claimed infielder Luis De Los Santos off waivers from the Blue Jays. Additionally, outfielder DJ Stewart as well as left-handers Joey Lucchesi and Matt Gage were outrighted off the 40-man roster. Stewart and Lucchesi elected free agency.

De Los Santos, 26, got up to the big leagues for the first time this year. He hit .172/.226/.241 in a small sample of 31 plate appearances to start his major league career. He hit .260/.375/.441 in his 154 Triple-A plate appearances while spending time at all four infield positions.

He still has a couple of option seasons and less than a year of year of service time, so he can provide the Mets with some depth around the dirt for the foreseeable future. They have Francisco Lindor cemented at short but questions elsewhere. First baseman Pete Alonso is now a free agent. He could be re-signed but it’s no guarantee he’ll be back. Mark Vientos just had a breakout season while playing third base but with poor defense, so he could perhaps move over to first if Alonso departs. Second base could be taken by Jeff McNeil but he’s also capable of playing other positions. Young guys like Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña or Ronny Mauricio are candidates to take over at second or third base.

Stewart, 31 this month, finished 2023 on a heater but couldn’t really carry it over into 2024 as he finished the year with a .177/.325/.297 batting line for the Mets. He could have been retained for 2025 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $1.7MM salary but the Mets clearly weren’t interested in that and bumped him off the roster instead.

Lucchesi, 32 in June, has been an optionable depth arm for the Mets for a while but is now out of options. That means he wouldn’t be able to continue in that role going forward. Since missing 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, he has tossed 57 innings for the Mets over the past two seasons with a 3.32 ERA but but subpar strikeout and walk rates of 16.2% and 10.4% respectively. As players with at least three years of service time, both Stewart and Lucchesi had the right to elect free agency and did so.

Gage, 32 in February, was acquired from the Dodgers in a cash deal in July but didn’t pitch for them after that, mostly staying on optional assignment. He has 19 2/3 innings of major league experience with the Blue Jays and Astros in previous seasons.

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