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Latest On Juan Soto

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Recent reporting on the trade talks between the Padres and Yankees regarding superstar outfielder Juan Soto have indicated that the sides have hit an impasse in their trade discussions. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this morning that the sides haven’t talked since San Diego requested the previously-reported multi-player package centered round right-handers Drew Thorpe and Michael King, though The Athletic’s Brandon Kuty suggests that discussions between the sides are expected to reignite during the Winter Meetings this week.

Kuty goes on to discuss the current state of discussions between the sides, with a few noteworthy updates to past reporting. While San Diego’s proposal was previously believed to be a six- or seven-player package centered around King and Thorpe plus salary relief in exchange for Soto and Trent Grisham, Kuty suggests that the Padres proposed an eight-for-two swap with right-handers Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez all included in addition to King and Thorpe. The other three players in San Diego’s proposal are not known, though Kuty suggests that top prospects Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira both are “figured to be on the table” in discussions.

The mention of Pereira as a potential piece in a Soto is especially noteworthy as past reporting has indicated that the 22-year-old has not been part of discussions between the sides. The young outfielder has emerged as a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport after slashing .300/.373/.548 in 81 games split between Double-A and Triple-A this season, though he struggled in a 27-game cup of coffee with an anemic .151/.233/.194 slash line in 103 big league plate appearances down the stretch. The inclusion of Pereira as a big-league ready outfield option could make plenty of sense for San Diego, particularly if the club parts with both Soto and Grisham in a deal.

While the specifics of reports on the Padres’ requested return package have conflicted, it’s clear that San Diego is hoping to receive a hefty return with a focus on MLB-ready pitching. What’s more, there’s a clear consensus between reports that the Yankees are particularly hesitant to include King and Thorpe in a package for Soto. Despite the gap between the sides in trade discussions, Kuty notes that restarting talks makes plenty of sense for both sides. The impetus behind a Soto deal for San Diego is the club’s desire to cut payroll, and Soto’s projected $33MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) limits the number of teams that could realistically fit a deal for Soto into their budget. Meanwhile, Kuty notes that the Yankees are facing considerable pressure to improve after missing the playoffs with an 82-80 2023 campaign.

While Kuty notes that Cody Bellinger is another star-caliber lefty outfielder who the Yankees have interest in, no outfield addition is appealing to the club as Soto. Likewise, Kuty suggests that the Blue Jays represent a potential suitor for Soto if the Padres can’t get a deal done with New York. It’s a suggestion further backed up by SNY’s Andy Martino, who describes Toronto as a “real contender” for Soto, with Heyman adding that right-hander Alek Manoah has come up in discussions between San Diego and Toronto. That said, Martino suggests that the Jays are believed to prefer to wait on a Soto deal until they know whether or not they’ll be successful in their bid for superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani.

Kuty suggests that waiting for Ohtani to make a decision could be a double-edged sword for the Padres. While another superstar-caliber left-handed slugger coming off the board could raise the pressure on interested clubs to acquire Soto, the Padres are likely to attempt to use the savings from a Soto deal to explore the free agent starting pitching market, and waiting to move Soto could leave San Diego with less options on that front. While the free agent market has largely moved slowly to this point in the offseason, the top end of the rotation market has been something of an exception to that rule with Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray having already signed on in Philadelphia and St. Louis, respectively.

Mariners, Blue Jays Interested In Isaac Paredes

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Rays infielder Isaac Paredes has drawn trade interest from several teams, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (X link), with the Mariners and Blue Jays among the suitors.  There isn’t any indication that a deal is anywhere close, and it would have to count as something of a surprise if Tampa did move Paredes, considering both his ability and the fact that he is only now entering his arbitration years.  He is projected to earn $3.2MM in the first of four arb-eligible years as a Super Two player.

As such, dealing Paredes wouldn’t bring many savings to the Rays’ 2024 payroll, estimated (via Roster Resource) to sit at a franchise-high $126MM.  President of baseball operations Erik Neander is on record as saying the Rays are open to having such a relatively large payroll, yet that hasn’t stopped speculation that Tampa Bay might look to move such higher-salaried names as Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot, Brandon Lowe, Harold Ramirez, or even Randy Arozarena.  Trading players as they become more expensive has been a longstanding way of business in Tampa, and there aren’t really many true untouchables on a roster that the Rays are forever looking to upgrade.

In this sense, selling high on Paredes now would net the Rays to a big trade return, and allow them to sidestep Paredes’ increasing arbitration price tag entirely.  It seems possible that the Rays might also consider attaching a less-desirable contract like Margot or Lowe along with Paredes in a trade package — while this would lessen the return in terms of prospects or big-league ready players, it would get some money off Tampa Bay’s books and perhaps allow them to keep Glasnow as the backbone of a somewhat thin rotation.

The Rays’ attention to the budget is what brought Paredes to Florida in the first place, as Tampa acquired the infielder and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick from the Tigers for Austin Meadows in April 2022.  Meadows was owed $4MM that season in the first of three arbitration years, yet the Rays chose to deal him in what ended up being a wise move.  Meadows has played in only 42 games since the trade due to vertigo and anxiety issues, and the Tigers non-tendered him last month.

Paredes, meanwhile, has blossomed in Tampa Bay, hitting .232/.333/.467 with 51 homers over 952 plate appearances since Opening Day 2022.  This production has outpaced his projected numbers, as Paredes hasn’t made much hard contact, and ranked only in the sixth percentile of all batters in hard-hit percentage in 2023.  On the plus side, it can be argued that Paredes has been hampered by a very low .232 BABIP over the last two seasons, and his strikeout and walk rates have been solidly above average.  In the field, Paredes has spent most of his time at third base posting respectable defensive numbers, and he brings added versatility as a player capable of getting some action as a second baseman, first baseman, and emergency shortstop.

This skillset is particularly useful for teams like Seattle and Toronto, infield-needy teams who could use more pop in the lineup.  The Mariners recently acquired Luis Urias to contribute to their infield picture, yet Paredes would be an improvement over Urias as a regular third baseman, so Urias and Josh Rojas could then work into a second base platoon.  The Blue Jays also have a big hole at the hot corner with Matt Chapman now a free agent, and Paredes could potentially also contribute to the Jays’ unsettled second base position.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has swung quite a few trades with the Rays during his tenure in Seattle, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the two sides line up once more.  That might seem a more realistic scenario than a notable swap between the Rays and Jays, as the AL East rivals unsurprisingly haven’t combined for many trades in their history.  Tampa Bay would probably prefer to not have to deal with Paredes as an opponent in the coming seasons, while the Blue Jays might not relish facing any of their own young talents that they might have to deal away to facilitate such a swap.

Speculatively, Tampa could target a controllable young pitcher like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo as part of a Paredes trade.  With the Mariners targeting contact hitting, Paredes would be a better fit at third base for the club than the free-swinging Eugenio Suarez, who was already dealt away to the Diamondbacks.  Any major salary relief probably might not factor into such a Rays/Mariners deal since it isn’t clear how much the M’s are able or willing to spend this winter, considering that the Suarez trade was made in part to reduce salary.  On this front at least, the higher-spending Blue Jays might be in a better position to take some money off Tampa’s books.

Blue Jays Interested In Brantley, Pederson, Kiner-Falefa

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The Blue Jays have been linked to such high-profile names as Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Juan Soto, and others on the free agent and trade markets, yet the team isn’t only focusing on these top-tier names to address their roster needs.  According to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Jays have interest in free agent outfielders Michael Brantley and Joc Pederson, as well as utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

These names have long been on the radar of Jays GM Ross Atkins, who has at least explored the possibility of acquiring all of the trio in the past.  Kiner-Falefa was targeted at the last trade deadline, Pederson was targeted during his last stint in free agency during the 2021-22 offseason, and Brantley reportedly seemed on the verge of signing with Toronto in the winter of 2020-21 before opting to return to the Astros at something of the eleventh hour.

To some extent, Brantley or Pederson could be seen as backup plans if Toronto didn’t acquire Soto, since left field is the primary defensive spot for all three players.  A world exists where the Blue Jays could trade for Soto and then sign one of the other two outfielders, with an eye towards using Brantley or Pederson primarily as a designated hitter (with Soto or George Springer also getting some DH time for partial rest days).  Such a scenario might somewhat run counter to the Jays’ focus on defense over the last year, though Daulton Varsho would still be anchoring center field, and the Jays might be willing to sacrifice some glovework to boost their middling lineup.

In the bigger picture, none of Brantley, Pederson, or Kiner-Falefa would really be obstacles to any bigger-name acquisitions the Blue Jays might have in mind.  The three veterans are all likely to be had on one-year contracts, similar to Toronto’s signings of Kevin Kiermaier or Brandon Belt last winter.

Pederson hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 home runs over 425 plate appearances for the Giants last season, as his 111 wRC+ was still quite respectable but a big step down from the 146 wRC+ posted in 2022.  It was something of an unusual year for Pederson in 2023, as he cut back on his strikeouts and increased his walk rate, but seemingly at the cost of a good chunk of his usual power.  Pederson still had some of the best hard-contact numbers of any player in the league, and a .268 BABIP and a big gap in his wOBA (.331) and his xwOBA (.366) indicates that the 31-year-old might’ve been somewhat unlucky to post only a 111 wRC+.

That said, 2022 does stand out as something of an outlier amongst Pederson’s last four seasons, and even his career in general.  Without much baserunning or defensive value, Pederson projects best as a DH (or part-time left fielder or first baseman), and limiting him to plate appearances against only right-handed pitching is preferable given his career splits.

Brantley would also have to be considered a part-time option due to his health, as shoulder surgery and recurring soreness kept Brantley out of action from June 2022 until August of last season.  He amassed 89 total PA with the Astros during the regular season and postseason, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Brantley’s eventual contract contains a lot of incentive clauses tied to playing time.  The former five-time All-Star showed only flashes of his old self at the plate in 2023, though it is possible another full offseason of rest and rehab might get Brantley back into something closer to his past form.

Kiner-Falefa is in some ways the easiest player to project of the trio, as the 28-year-old has pretty firmly established himself as a light-hitting jack of all trades who can provide at least respectable defense at a wide variety of positions.  A Gold Glove winner with the Rangers as a third baseman in 2020, IKF could be viewed by the Blue Jays as a potential glove-first replacement for Matt Chapman at the hot corner, with the Jays then presumably looking to add bigger bats to fill their other holes at second base, left field, or DH.  If Toronto doesn’t think enough of Kiner-Falefa’s bat to merit a semi-starting role, he could simply be a top utility option off the bench, giving the Blue Jays some flexibility in how hard they need to push on any one of their particular positions of need.

As usual, Atkins is seemingly keeping tabs on just about every prominent player on the market, and Davidi hears from player agents that the Blue Jays are “planning to shift quickly if needed” should their attempts at a superstar acquisition fall short.  In terms of Ohtani specifically, Davidi is doubtful the two-time AL MVP will ultimately land in Toronto, yet the Jays aren’t really costing themselves by exploring the possibility since the position-player market is moving quite slowly.  It could be that several teams and players are in the same boat as the Blue Jays in waiting on Ohtani’s decision to open up the market to a fuller extent.

Rangers, Mets, Red Sox Reportedly Shift Focus Away From Pursuit Of Shohei Ohtani

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Rumors about the state of Shohei Ohtani’s market in free agency have been decidedly and deliberately scarce. Ohtani is said to prefer things to be kept quiet and close to the vest, and teams involved in the bidding surely don’t want to jeopardize their chances by being too forthcoming in terms of leaking information to the media. ESPN’s Jeff Passan pulls back the curtain a bit this morning, however, writing that at least three teams — the Rangers, Mets and Red Sox — have turned their attention to other players at this stage of the process. While each of the three were among Ohtani’s original group of suitors, it seems the trio has become pessimistic about their chances of closing a deal.

The Rangers’ ostensible exit from the Ohtani bidding dovetails with recent comments from general manager Chris Young, who just yesterday told reporters that he does not anticipate spending to the same extent he did in the past two offseasons. Texas dropped more than $500MM in the 2021-22 offseason when signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. The Rangers spent more than $200MM last winter when adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Whether the expectation for lesser spending is because they feel they’re out of the Ohtani bidding or vice versa, the end result seems to be an expectation and concession that the two-time AL MVP and longtime Rangers division rival will sign elsewhere.

As for the Mets, there was never any question whether they have the funds to pay Ohtani a contract that’s widely expected to eclipse $500MM by a comfortable margin. Owner Steve Cohen is the sport’s wealthiest and most aggressive owner. But there have long been questions about Ohtani’s desire to play in the New York spotlight and deal with the inherent media frenzy associated with that market. It should come as no surprise that the Mets (and likely the Yankees) nevertheless tried, but Passan’s report suggests those efforts have come up short. To that end, SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Ohtani’s countryman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is currently the Mets’ primary focus.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation help for the 2024 season, which doesn’t apply to Ohtani while he mends from elbow surgery. (Though he’d clearly be a factor in their 2025 rotation and beyond.) Prior reports have suggested that Boston’s focus, thus far, has been more on the trade market than on free agency. That doesn’t definitively mean that the Sox aren’t willing to spend lavishly on free agents this winter, but if their pursuit of immediate rotation help eventually leads them to free agency, it’d make for a particularly expensive offseason to pursue both Ohtani and one of the remaining top-end starters (e.g. Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery).

While those three clubs are out of the mix, Ohtani’s market does still include the likes of the Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels, per Passan. That’s not intended to be a comprehensive list of the remaining suitors, however. It stands to reason that other clubs could yet be in play. The Giants have long been linked to Ohtani, as have the Mariners — although Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported a couple weeks ago suggested that the Mariners were unlikely to ultimately land him.

Yankees, Padres Reportedly Far Apart In Juan Soto Trade Talks

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The Yankees are known to have interest in Padres outfielder Juan Soto but it doesn’t seem as though a trade is close to coming to fruition. Per reports from Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY, talks have stalled with a noticeable gap between the two clubs. Heyman says that “at least nine” clubs have checked in, while the report from The Athletic says the Blue Jays are involved.

All the reports indicate that the Padres are asking for a multi-player return, with Martino reporting that the Friars asked for Michael King, Drew Thorpe and four or five other prospects such as Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, as well as salary relief for Soto and Trent Grisham, who was also in the discussions. He adds that none of Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira are involved. The report from The Athletic identifies Clarke Schmidt as a target.

It seems there is a disparity in how to value Soto, who is incredibly talented in a vacuum but there are other factors that could diminish his value in a trade. He only just turned 25 years old but has already played in 779 big league games with 160 home runs. He has drawn walks in 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 17.1% of them. He has slashed .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154, indicating he’s been 54% better than the league average hitter.

But he is now just one year removed from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an arbitration salary of $33MM next year. It is generally expected that signing him to an extension will be extremely difficult, given that he’s about to hit the open market just after his 26th birthday, a uniquely young age for a free agent. The Nationals reportedly offered him an extension of $440MM in July of last year, eventually putting him on the trading block when he rejected it. Since then, he banked $23MM in 2023 and is set to add about $33MM more next year, increasing his earning power as he has moved to free agency. That makes him seen by many in the industry as a one-year rental.

Shortly after that extension was turned down, the Nats were able to trade Soto and Josh Bell for a package of six players:  C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. But that was when Soto still had two and a half years of control remaining. Now he is down to one year and his salary has increased to roughly market rate for a star player.

Given the changing circumstances, his trade value should be far lower now than it was when the Padres acquired him. But the Padres still seem to be asking for a significant package of players, seemingly focused on pitching. King still has two years of control whereas Vásquez and Brito each have six. Thorpe is one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects and hasn’t reached Triple-A yet. From the perspective of the Friars, they think the Yankees are acting like the only suitors, presumably extending offers the Padres consider non-starters.

It’s possible that this is just a classic case of early negotiations, where both sides stake out extremely unreasonable positions and gradually meet in the middle. But both sides also have the option of pivoting elsewhere. The Padres seem to have many other clubs calling, while the Yanks can walk away from Soto and pursue free agents like Cody Bellinger. They are known to be looking for two outfielders, which is presumably why Grisham’s name has been brought up in talks, but the Yanks could always looks elsewhere.

As for the Jays, it’s unsurprising that they are involved. General manager Ross Atkins has admitted that the club is looking for significant upgrades to their lineup, targeting big names like Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani. Like many things this offseason, the ultimate outcome might have to wait for a decision from Ohtani. Recent reporting indicates the Jays are one of the handful of clubs still involved as Ohtani’s market whittles down. But if they end up just missing there, they could call up the Padres and try to get something done for Soto.

Some reports have suggested that the Friars could look to finish a Soto deal as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings, but it might actually be in their best interests to wait. Since nothing is close with the Yankees and the Jays are waiting on Ohtani, the Padres might get a better deal with a bit of patience. Earlier reporting has suggested the Cubs, Giants and Phillies could be involved and there are other speculative fits as well.

Despite Soto’s immense talent, he’s available in trade talks due to the budgetary concerns in San Diego. The club’s payroll for next year is currently estimates by Roster Resource to be around $189MM. Due to aggressive spending in recent years and their loss of broadcast revenue with the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, they are expected to be working with a reduced payroll of around $200MM this year. That means they are almost at their limit before addressing the significant losses to their rotation. Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez reached free agency at season’s end, leaving them with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and plenty of uncertainty beyond those two.

It appears that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is trying to kill two birds with one stone, moving Soto and his projected to salary to both clear out some payroll space and bring in the pitching they sorely need. Whether he can pull it off will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the weeks to come.

Mets Claim Tyler Heineman From Blue Jays

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The Mets have claimed catcher Tyler Heineman off waivers from the Blue Jays, with Anthony DiComo of MLB.com among those who relayed the news. There wasn’t any public reporting about Heineman being removed from Toronto’s roster, but they evidently tried to pass him through waivers with the Mets preventing them from succeeding. The Jays’ 40-man roster is now at 37 whereas the Mets are at 33.

Heineman, 33 in June, has played in 104 major league games, scattered over four separate seasons dating back to 2019. He has produced a batting line of .218/.297/282 in his 283 plate appearances, suiting up for the Marlins, Giants, Blue Jays and Pirates. He’s considered an above-average defender overall, grading out positively on Statcast’s blocking and throwing leaderboards. He’s also received positive marks for his pitch framing from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

For the Mets, Heineman figures to improve their depth behind the plate. He still has one option year remaining and is a switch-hitter, giving him flexibility to fit into the club’s plans as the season goes along. Francisco Álvarez and Omar Narváez should be the catching duo in the majors but Heineman and Cooper Hummel, another waiver claim from today, are available if an injury arises. Heineman is still shy of arbitration, meaning he can be retained beyond the upcoming season if the Mets like his work in 2024.

The Mets have been busy bolstering their depth all over the roster in recent days. They have signed one-year deals with Luis Severino, Joey Wendle and Austin Adams, brought Kyle Crick aboard via a minor league deal and now a couple of waiver claims. For the Jays, Heineman was third on the catching depth chart behind Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk. They have freed up a roster spot for future additions, perhaps in next week’s Rule 5 draft, and will likely look to sign a veteran catcher on a non-roster deal to replace Heineman.

Blue Jays’ GM Ross Atkins Downplays Bichette Trade Rumors

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Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette was the subject of trade speculation last week, when a report suggested the Cubs had shown interest in the two-time All-Star. Any kind of Bichette trade always seemed far-fetched and Toronto general manager Ross Atkins shot down the possibility in a chat with reporters (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet and Scott Mitchell of TSN) this afternoon.

Atkins called Bichette a “really good player” and pointed to the scarcity of impact position player talent available this offseason, suggesting that it’s only natural other teams would contact the Jays about his availability. Nevertheless, Atkins made clear it’s not something the Jays are pursuing. “We are very fortunate to have him and he is our shortstop moving forward,” Atkins said. “Rumors, speculation, there’s usually something (to them), but in our case, Bo is our shortstop moving forward.”

The Jays have the star infielder under contract for two more seasons. Bichette signed a three-year deal to buy out his arbitration campaigns on the eve of Spring Training. He is set for an $11MM salary next season and will make $16.5MM in his final year before free agency. That’s a price the Jays will happily pay for a shortstop who hit .306/.339/.475 over 601 plate appearances, numbers right in line with his career marks.

Toronto has openly looked for ways to add more offense alongside Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Jays are a reported suitor for Shohei Ohtani and have shown interest in a reunion with Matt Chapman. Chapman, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield all hitting free agency has subtracted a trio of regulars from the lineup.

As they reload on the heels of an 89-win season that ended in the Wild Card round, the front office is unsurprisingly open to short-term acquisitions. Atkins said the team isn’t averse to trading for a player who is one year from free agency (Nicholson-Smith link). The GM didn’t mention any specific targets. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Ha-Seong Kim and Max Kepler are among the rental players who appeared on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates earlier this month.

Right-hander Alek Manoah also appeared on that list. The Jays have signaled some openness to moving the enigmatic hurler on the heels of a disastrous season. However, Nicholson-Smith suggests (on X) the team is more inclined to hold onto Manoah rather than selling low. At the start of the offseason, Atkins implied he was the in-house favorite to occupy the fifth spot in the rotation behind Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi.

Manoah was a Cy Young finalist as recently as 2022, when he pitched to a 2.24 ERA over 31 starts. Everything went in the wrong direction this year. Manoah allowed 5.87 earned runs per nine over 87 1/3 innings. His walk rate more than doubled while his strikeouts fell to a career-low 19% mark. He didn’t pitch again after being optioned on August 10. Last month, Atkins said the West Virginia product had received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his throwing shoulder.

The GM indicated today that Manoah is throwing as part of his offseason routine. He seems on track to be a full-go for Spring Training. He’d seemingly enter exhibition play as the #5 starter, although the Jays have at least kicked the tires on possible rotation acquisitions. They’ve been tied to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and were reportedly involved in the Aaron Nola market to some extent before he re-signed with the Phillies. If the Jays were to land another starter, it’d reignite speculation about Manoah’s availability.

Blue Jays Notes: Bichette, Guerrero, Chapman, Nola

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Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has come up in some trade rumors this offseason but it doesn’t appear there’s much momentum towards a deal there. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet addressed the possibility in columns today, both downplaying the likelihood of the Jays choosing this path.

Nicholson-Smith says he spoke with executives with teams other than the Jays, who gave him the impression the Jays are planning to hold. Rosenthal says the Jays are indeed getting calls from other clubs about Bichette and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but that doesn’t mean they are motivated to move either.

This is all fairly understandable under the conditions of this winter’s market. It’s generally agreed that the crop of free agent hitters is on the weak side, which would naturally lead clubs to find upgrades on the trading block. But the Jays are also looking to upgrade their own position player group, having to replace free agents Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier. Subtracting Bichette and/or Guerrero would only make that task harder and it’s hard to imagine a trade that would make sense for both sides.

Each of Bichette and Guerrero are two years away from free agency, so any club looking to acquire them would naturally be in win-now mode. But the Jays are in a competitive window as well, meaning MLB-ready talent would have to be coming back in exchange, and it would be difficult to send something to the Jays that makes the club better than Bichette does. The shortstop has produced 13.5 wins above replacement over the past three years, per FanGraphs, which puts him in the top 25 of all position players in the league. Guerrero’s past two seasons weren’t as strong as his 2021 campaign but he was still good for roughly 30 homers with a low strikeout rate. With the Jays actively pursuing Shohei Ohtani, parting ways with a star player like Bichette or Guerrero wouldn’t help their pitch.

In terms of Toronto’s pursuits, it’s been reported that the Jays are interested in a Chapman reunion and that still appears to be the case. Both Nicholson-Smith and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com indicate that the dialogue is still open between the Jays and Chapman but it doesn’t appear there’s anything close to getting done. Chapman reportedly turned down an extension offer of four or five years while still with the club.

Another option the Jays considered was right-hander Aaron Nola, with Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club “showed early interest” in the righty before he re-signed with the Phillies. Though the lineup seems to the priority for the Jays, it seems there’s at least some openness to a rotation addition, with the Jays having also been connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The rotation already has Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi in four spots, with Alek Manoah, Bowden Francis, Mitch White and prospect Ricky Tiedemann options for the back end. Adding Nola or Yamamoto in there would likely lead to someone becoming available in trade, with Jays reportedly open to moving Manoah.

Overall, it’s been a quiet offseason for the Jays thus far, with the team having only made perfunctory transactions in the past few weeks. It’s entirely possible that all their upcoming moves will hinge on their pursuit of Ohtani, as the club is seen as one of a handful of legitimate contenders for the two-way superstar. Though they have some openness to reuniting with Chapman, pursuing Yamamoto or perhaps going after Cody Bellinger, all of those options may be on the backburner until the Ohtani situation has some clarity. Since Ohtani is widely expected to require a record-breaking deal of $500MM or more, it stands to reason that the club would want to figure out their chances there before committing to other options that will also require significant funds.

Blue Jays “Open To” Alek Manoah Trade Offers

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After finishing third in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, Alek Manoah had a disastrous 2023 season, posting a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings while suffering a significant loss of control.  Manoah’s hellish year included a month-long stint in the Florida Complex League to try and solve his sudden mechanical issues, as well as a later option to Triple-A Buffalo in August that didn’t result in any actual pitching appearances with the Bisons.

With all this in mind, it perhaps isn’t surprising that rival executives have told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that “the Blue Jays are open to moving” Manoah in a trade, and teams have made calls in general asking about Toronto’s rotation depth.  Of course, teams are often willing to listen on virtually any player, so it isn’t clear if Toronto is merely doing its due diligence in not dismissing offers for Manoah, or if the Jays are actively shopping Manoah in some regard.

It’s difficult to call Manoah a true trade candidate given the still somewhat mysterious nature of his down year.  Some type of injury seemed to be a factor, as Jays GM Ross Atkins said in October that Manoah received a PRP injection to treat some shoulder discomfort.  Manoah also went through some medical testing during his stint in Buffalo, but there were also reports of some hard feelings between Manoah and the team, perhaps regarding how the minor league option might’ve cost Manoah enough service time to claim Super Two status.

Only the Jays and Manoah himself have an idea of his status heading into 2024, or if even that might still be unclear until Manoah gets some offseason or Spring Training work under his belt.  Obviously no team is going to pay a big price for Manoah without having more understanding of what exactly is plaguing the 25-year-old right-hander, so that alone limits Toronto’s leverage in any trade discussions.

By that same token, if Manoah just needs to get healthy, it is possible he could enjoy a swift return to form.  Should such a bounce-back happen, the Blue Jays obviously want to benefit, rather than selling low on Manoah and then watching him rebound on another club.  That said, “selling low” is still better than selling for nothing, and another mediocre season might ruin Manoah’s trade value entirely.  Manoah’s rough season is just one season, and rival teams might feel they have an answer to Manoah’s mechanical problems, or that a trade itself might get Manoah on track if there is indeed bad blood between the righty and Jays management.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently speculated that the Blue Jays and Cardinals might line up on a Manoah trade, perhaps involving such past Jays trade targets as Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, or Brendan Donovan.  With Carlson and Tyler O’Neill both struggling for the last two seasons after some early success in their MLB careers, the Cards and Jays could theoretically explore moving two “sell low” candidates for each other, hoping that mutual change of scenery would benefit all parties.  St. Louis is one of many teams looking for pitching this winter, and with the Jays having a wide array of holes to fill in the lineup, several clubs could be fits if Manoah was indeed available.

The other question about a Manoah trade is how it would impact Toronto’s rotation.  Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi are set as the top four, with Manoah being the favorite for the fifth spot though Atkins made no guarantees.  If teams are asking about the Blue Jays’ pitchers in general, any of Bowden Francis, Mitch White, Wes Parsons, or even Kikuchi could be available at the right price.  Such a deal involving another pitcher would imply that Toronto is confident Manoah can bounce back, or that the Jays are perhaps exploring acquiring another pitcher for more stability at the back end of the pitching staff.

AL Notes: Glasnow, Jansen, A’s

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The Rays figure to spend much of their offseason grappling with how to improve their roster despite a $126MM projected payroll (per RosterResource) that would be a franchise record. Given the considerable expected increase in Tampa’s payroll, plenty of speculation has swirled surrounding the future of ace right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who is in the final year of his contract with the Rays and is due $25MM in 2024. Moving Glasnow would trim considerable payroll for the Rays while also allowing them to secure cheaper talent in the return package, a method the club has frequently utilized in recent years when parting ways with players like Blake Snell, Chris Archer and, Evan Longoria.

While it’s certainly feasible the Rays could decide to take that route with Glasnow, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicates that such a deal is unlikely to come together any time soon, noting that the club’s talks regarding a Glasnow deal are seen as “preliminary.” Morosi goes on to suggest that a Glasnow trade is more likely to occur after the top tier of free agent starters, which includes Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, have found new homes. Waiting until the free agent market plays itself out more is a sensible choice for the Rays; after all, plenty of clubs are rumored to be looking for front-of-the-rotation impact this offseason, and teams that miss out on the aforementioned group of pitchers may be more motivated to get a deal for Glasnow done later in the offseason once the big names of the free agent market are off the table.

More from around the American League…

  • Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen is poised to hit free agency following the 2024 season, but it appears that the 28-year-old and the team aren’t planning on getting together on an extension any time soon. In an interview with Scott Mitchell of SportsCentre, Jansen said that though the sides did talk about a potential extension, “both parties agreed to carry on and see what happens throughout this year.” Toronto, of course, has fellow backstop Alejandro Kirk under team control through the end of the 2026 season. Given that reality, the fact that an extension for Jansen appears to not be a top priority for the Blue Jays is hardly a surprise. That’s especially true considering the club’s reported interest in top free agent bats such as Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger.
  • The Athletics have now received unanimous approval from MLB owners for their plan to relocate to Las Vegas. In the wake of the relocation vote, team president Dave Kaval interviewed with The Athletic’s Evan Drellich. Kaval expressed the team’s excitement for the coming move. Though he noted that Las Vegas leaves the club with “uncertainty” regarding revenue from local media as the smallest TV market in MLB, Kaval noted that the club expects their new market to “punch a little above its weight” in other areas to make up for that. Kaval also suggested that the club has no interest in leaving the “Athletics” name behind as it moves to the desert. That’s a particularly relevant piece of information given Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao has previously indicated that leaving the name in Oakland could be among the city’s demands should the A’s wish to stay in Oakland after their lease expires following the 2024 campaign but prior to the club’s Las Vegas ballpark’s opening, which is expected to occur in time for the start of the 2028 season. Kaval went on to clarify that the club’s current TV deal only applies while the club is playing in the Bay Area, which could provide the club with an additional incentive to get a deal done either with the city of Oakland or to share Oracle Park with the Giants for the 2025-27 seasons.
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