Blue Jays Rumors

American League Non-Tenders: 11/17/23

By Nick Deeds | November 17, 2023 at 8:24pm CDT

The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm CT. Here’s a rundown of the players on American League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month. All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency, where they’re eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.

Onto the transactions…

Latest Moves

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Rays non-tendered righty Cooper Criswell. He’d been designated for assignment on Tuesday.
The Mariners announced this evening that the club has non-tendered first baseman Mike Ford. Ford hit well (.228/.323/.475) in 83 games with Seattle this season but had already been designated for assignment earlier this week.
The Yankees announced this evening that the club has non-tendered right-handers Albert Abreu and Lou Trivino in addition to left-hander Anthony Misiewicz. Trivino didn’t pitch in the majors this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in May. Abreu pitched to a 4.73 ERA and 5.26 FIP across 59 innings of work while Misiewicz posted a 7.36 ERA across 11 innings of work for the Diamondbacks, Yankees, and Tigers.
The Twins have non-tendered left-hander Jovani Moran and right-hander Ronny Henriquez, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Moran finished the season on the injured list and, per Hayes, will require Tommy John surgery this offseason. Henriquez did not appear in the majors this year and struggled to a 5.68 ERA in 37 appearances at the Triple-A level.
The Angels announced this evening that they have non-tendered right-hander Jose Marte. Marte had gotten brief looks out of Anaheim’s bullpen across the past three seasons but struggled to a 8.14 ERA in 24 1/3 combined innings of work over those cups of coffee.
The Red Sox have non-tendered right-hander Wyatt Mills, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Mills, 28, did not appear in the big leagues this year and underwent Tommy John surgery over the summer.

Earlier Moves

The Rangers announced this evening that they have non-tendered right-hander Matt Bush and left-hander Brett Martin. Bush, 37, struggled to a 9.58 ERA with the Brewers this year and did not make an appearance with Texas. Martin missed the entire 2023 campaign with shoulder issues.
The Royals announced this evening that they have non-tendered outfielder Diego Hernandez, left-hander Austin Cox, catcher Logan Porter and right-hander Josh Staumont. All but Hernandez had already been designated for assignment by the club earlier this week. Hernandez has yet to appear in the majors during his career and slashed .245/.302/.291 in 60 games at the Double-A level this season.
The Athletics announced today that they did not tender a contract to infielder Kevin Smith. Smith joined the club in the trade that sent Matt Chapman to Toronto and slashed just .182/.218/.314 in 297 trips to the plate with Oakland over the last two seasons.
The Blue Jays are expected to non-tender right-hander Adam Cimber this evening, per Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC-2. A veteran of six MLB seasons, the 32-year-old Cimber struggled badly in 2023 with a 7.40 ERA in 22 appearances despite a strong 2.53 ERA in 149 appearances with Toronto between 2021 and 2022.

Giants Interested In Matt Chapman

By Darragh McDonald | November 17, 2023 at 10:15am CDT

The Giants are interested in free agent Matt Chapman, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though he adds that the Blue Jays “are making a big push to keep” the third baseman.

Chapman, 31 in April, has been a speculative fit for the Giants this offseason for a few reasons. For one thing, the club’s new manager Bob Melvin was the skipper in Oakland while Chapman was there. Beyond that, it’s widely believed that the Giants are planning to add a star player or two this winter after just missing on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa a year ago.

The Giants have also had some question marks around their defense in recent years, which happens to be Chapman’s specialty. After winning 107 games in 2021, the club fell to .500 in 2022, with glovework seeming to play a role in that. The club was collectively graded as being worth -53 Defensive Runs Saved that year, the worst mark in the majors, while their tally of -33 Outs Above Average was third worst. In 2023, they got the OAA into the top 10 but their DRS was still in the bottom third, which perhaps helped contribute to another underwhelming season.

Chapman has been one of the best defensive third basemen in the league during his career, having current counts of 92 DRS and 53 OAA since his 2017 debut. The former number is tops in the majors during that time frame while the latter number is second only to Nolan Arenado.

His bat has been a bit less consistent, particularly in 2023. He finished the season with a batting line of .240/.330/.424 and a wRC+ of 110, though in fairly uneven fashion, having high highs and low lows throughout the year. Some have framed his year as a scorching hot April followed by five tepid months, but Chapman was also quite strong in July, hitting .247/.402/.506 that month for a wRC+ of 154.

On August 13, when Chapman hurt his finger in a weight room incident, he was slashing .255/.346/.449 on the year for a wRC+ of 121, which was fairly in line with his 118 wRC+ from the year before. He tried playing through the finger issue, even going on the injured list for a time, but hit just .163/.250/.302 the rest of the way, diminishing his full season production.

Blaming the injury might be a charitable way to look at things but it stands to reason that the club that signs Chapman is probably going to be one that looks on him favorably and is more willing to overlook the final weeks of the 2023 campaign. His 28.4% strikeout rate for the year gives some pause but optimists can look to his 10.7% walk rate and bloody Statcast metrics. MLBTR predicted Chapman to get a contract of six years and $150MM.

The Giants used J.D. Davis as their primary third baseman in 2023 and he can be retained for one more season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $6.8MM in 2024. He had a fine season, hitting 18 home runs and slashing .248/.325/.413 for a wRC+ of 104. Hitting has always been his forte, with his defense more questionable. DRS continued to frown on him in 2023, giving him a grade of -11 for the year, pushing his career mark to -38. OAA gave him a +5 on the year but his career tally is still just -7.

Davis is a perfectly serviceable player at the hot corner but Chapman would clearly be an upgrade. If the Giants were able to get a deal done with Chapman, Davis would still have a bit of trade value given his modest salary, perhaps allowing the Giants to put him on the market and bolster their roster elsewhere.

Fitting Chapman onto the Jays’ roster is perhaps an easier fit, since he could just slot back into his old spot. The Jays are known to be looking for multiple position players in order to upgrade their lineup this winter, which could include a Chapman reunion. The club already offered him an extension at some point, though Chapman turned it down. But they are also looking into Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and others. Candelario, in particular, would likely be a backup plan for the event that they don’t retain Chapman. Candelario is also a third baseman but doesn’t have the same track record as Chapman, thus leading to a lesser contract projection of four years and $70MM.

As mentioned, the Giants are clearly looking for a significant upgrade this winter, having been connected to big names like Ohtani, Bellinger, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and others. Chapman is on the list as well but they figure to be competing with the Jays and other clubs for many of the same targets.

Both clubs seem to have some powder dry for such pursuits. Roster Resource currently pegs the Giants’ payroll at $147MM next year. They have been in the $200MM range in the past, giving them plenty of room to work with. If their desire for star player additions this winter is as strong as suspected, perhaps they are willing to push that and therefore have even more room. The Jays are at $205MM for next year, per RR, but with a larger arbitration class and a few non-tenders could give them some more breathing space. Their competitive balance tax calculation is currently estimated at $216MM, with next year’s base threshold at $237MM. The Jays were willing to pay the tax last year club president/CEO Mark Shapiro has suggested the payroll situation should be in roughly similar range to 2023.

Blue Jays Showing Interest In Top Free Agent Bats

By Darragh McDonald | November 16, 2023 at 2:20pm CDT

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins has admitted the club is looking to add multiple bats this winter and it seems they are setting their sights high in that pursuit. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported earlier this week that the club was looking to make a big splash and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic today reports that at least one person in the industry considers them a sleeper for Shohei Ohtani. Additionally, Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports they are interested in outfielder Cody Bellinger and infielder Jeimer Candelario. Bob Nightengale of USA Today also connected the Jays to Bellinger earlier this week.

That the Jays are looking to add some thump to their lineup is not surprising. The club’s offense fared decently in 2023, with an overall wRC+ of 107 that put them in the back of the top 10 out of the 30 clubs in the league. Their 20.9% strikeout rate was better than average, with only five clubs getting punched out at a lower clip, but the 188 home runs hit by the Jays was 16th. Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier all became free agents at season’s end, subtracting four regulars from the group.

The club has already been publicly connected to a few names, including having interest in a Chapman reunion as well has exploring trades for players like Eugenio Suárez of the Mariners and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals. But the club appears to also be exploring the possibility of signing a top free agent.

Ohtani is, of course, the biggest splash imaginable. He’s hit 124 home runs over the past three years while walking in 13.6% of his plate appearances, leading to a slash of .277/.379/.585. That translates into a wRC+ of 157, indicating he was 57% better than the league average hitter in that time. He won’t be pitching in 2024 as he recovers from elbow surgery but a return to the mound in 2025 is something he will surely be attempting. The Jays will have a rotation spot opening up at that time with Yusei Kikuchi set to return to free agency after 2024.

Though Ohtani will be exclusively a designated hitter next year, that won’t be a problem for the Jays, with Atkins already declaring the club is open to such an addition. Belt played some first base in 2023 but was mostly a DH, so Ohtani or someone else could take on a similar role to the one Belt had.

As for Bellinger, the Jays were interested in him last year before he signed a one-year deal with the Cubs. The outfielder was miserable at the plate in 2021 and 2022, seemingly due to injury, but bounced back in 2023. He hit 26 home runs and only struck out at a 25.6% clip. His overall batting line was .307/.356/.525, leading to a wRC+ of 134. He also stole 20 bases and was worth four Outs Above Average in center field. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating weren’t as high on his defense this year but they still have considered him to be above-average in his career. With Kiermaier’s departure, the Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho in two outfield spots but could easily fit Bellinger in there. His ability to play first base on occasion could be a useful bonus as well.

Candelario is a corner infielder and would fit as a replacement for Chapman at third in Toronto. Like Bellinger, Candelario had a bounceback season in 2023 after being non-tendered. Between the Nats and the Cubs, he hit 22 home runs and walked in 9.2% of plate appearances. He hit .251/.336/.471 overall for a wRC+ of 117. DRS has never liked his glovework at third but UZR and OAA consider him to be around league average. His 2022 campaign was a disaster but his 2021 and 2023 seasons look quite similar and he was even better in the shortened 2020 season.

It’s perhaps notable that Candelario is a switch-hitter while each of Bellinger and Ohtani are left-handed. With players this good, the handedness may not matter as much as simply upgrading the lineup overall, but they would add some balance to a lineup that currently projects to lean right-handed. The departures of Kiermaier and Belt leave the Jays with just Varsho and Biggio as lefties who seem likely to get regular at-bats, with Spencer Horwitz and Nathan Lukes perhaps in depth roles. Addison Barger is also on the roster but has yet to make his major league debut. Tyler Heineman is a switch-hitter but is third on the catching depth chart behind Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk.

The Jays will undoubtedly have plenty of competition in these pursuits. Ohtani’s unique talents and marketability have led to widespread interest around the league, while Bellinger and Candelario have had plenty of suitors as well. The Jays currently have a 2024 payroll of $205MM and a competitive balance tax figure of $216MM, per Roster Resource, though non-tendering a couple members of their arbitration class could knock those numbers down some.

MLBTR’s predicted Ohtani to get a record-setting deal of $528MM over 12 years, Bellinger to get $264MM over the same length and Candelario $70MM over four years. The Jays have given out some sizeable contracts in recent years, including Springer getting $150MM while Kevin Gausman got $110MM. Signing Ohtani or Bellinger would require them to go to a new level but they may be willing to do so in order to make the big splash they seek. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimated their Opening Day payroll was $210MM in 2023, though their CBT number went into the $260MM range. President/CEO Mark Shapiro has indicated the club expects payroll to be in a similar range in 2024.

Gerrit Cole Wins American League Cy Young Award

By Anthony Franco | November 15, 2023 at 6:32pm CDT

As expected, Gerrit Cole is the 2023 Cy Young winner in the American League. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the Yankee star has won the award. Former Minnesota right-hander Sonny Gray was the runner-up, while Toronto’s Kevin Gausman took home third place.

There wasn’t a ton of intrigue, as Cole received all 30 first-place votes. While he’s a six-time All-Star and two-time ERA champion, this is his first career Cy Young. No AL pitcher topped Cole’s 209 innings, while he led Junior Circuit pitchers (minimum 150 innings) with a 2.63 ERA. He was sixth among that group with a 27% strikeout rate and trailed only Gausman and Pablo López with 222 punchouts overall.

That well-rounded dominance made Cole an easy call as the AL’s best pitcher in the eyes of voters. It’s his sixth top five finish and the third time he has been a finalist, as he’d twice before finished as runner-up. Having at least one Cy Young on his résumé could go a long way towards burnishing an eventual Hall of Fame case.

For now, the 33-year-old will look to replicate this year’s success in hopes of leading the Yankees back to the postseason. Despite Cole turning in one of the best seasons of his career, New York floundered midseason and finished barely above .500. Cole will be in the Bronx for at least one more year. He’s headed into year five of a nine-year, $324MM free agent contract. He has the ability to opt out after next season.

Gray received 20 second-place votes to earn the highest Cy Young finish of his career. It was well timed for the three-time All-Star, who hit free agency a couple weeks ago. Gausman secured seven second-place votes and was the most common selection for third. Stray second-place votes went to Luis Castillo and Zach Eflin, although Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish edged out that duo for fourth in overall balloting.

Others to receive at least one vote: López, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Chris Bassitt, Félix Bautista and Chris Martin. The full results are available at the BBWAA website.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Shohei Ohtani’s Free Agent Timeline

By Anthony Franco | November 14, 2023 at 9:56pm CDT

An offseason defined by Shohei Ohtani’s free agency hasn’t been especially active within the first couple weeks. For most of the game’s top spenders, the winter may well be defined by whether they land the two-way superstar.

Those clubs may not have to wait long to learn the answer. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this morning that teams involved in the Ohtani market believe the expected AL MVP might make his decision early, potentially before the Winter Meetings begin on December 4.

Despite that possibility, there haven’t been many teams substantively linked to Ohtani. That’s by design, as it seems his camp isn’t interested in spotlighting his free agent process. Passan writes that clubs pursuing the three-time All-Star believe that if word of a sit-down with Ohtani were made public, “it will be held against the team.”

Even in the absence of substantive reports of teams meeting with Ohtani, it’s not hard to identify the likelier suitors. The incumbent Angels have made no secret of their hope of keeping him around. Teams like the Padres and Cubs have been mentioned in more speculative fashion.

Passan unsurprisingly lists the Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox as teams likely to be involved. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto danced around an Ohtani question at last week’s GM Meetings but acknowledged the Seattle front office would “presumably” need to try to value a free agent who is without precedent. Dipoto subsequently indicated the team was open to bringing in a designated hitter, saying they’d “love to have a full-time DH, a banger who just goes out and bangs” (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

The Giants are clearly searching for a star player. Both New York franchises figure to be involved. Passan indicates that the Blue Jays, not as frequently speculated as an Ohtani landing spot because of geography, could look for a way to make a splash this offseason (although he doesn’t specifically link Toronto to Ohtani beyond what seems a loosely speculative tie). Other teams could kick around ways to get involved on a player this unique. It’d be a real surprise if he didn’t land with a club accustomed to running a player payroll in the upper third of MLB, though.

Ohtani officially rejected a qualifying offer from the Angels this afternoon. That doesn’t affect his chances of returning to Anaheim. He was never going to consider a $20.325MM salary. Having to relinquish a draft choice and potentially international signing bonus room isn’t much of a factor for a player of this magnitude. Organizations considering a record-shattering contract may know within the next few weeks whether they’ll get that opportunity.

Blue Jays Select Adam Macko

By Darragh McDonald | November 14, 2023 at 3:45pm CDT

The Blue Jays announced that they have selected the contract of left-hander Adam Macko. Today is the deadline for clubs to add players to their roster in order to prevent them from being eligible in next month’s Rule 5 draft. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reported on the move prior to the official announcement.

Macko, 23 next month, was a seventh-round pick of the Mariners in the 2019 draft. In the years after that selection, he wasn’t able to throw many innings both due to the pandemic and injuries. From 2019 through 2022, he logged 95 total innings with a 3.98 earned run average. His 12.5% walk rate was on the high side but he was able to strike out a massive 35% of batters faced.

The Blue Jays were clearly intrigued, acquiring him from the Mariners alongside Erik Swanson in the deal that sent Teoscar Hernández to Seattle a year ago. Macko’s first season with his new club went well, tossing 86 innings over 20 High-A starts. His 4.81 ERA might not look impressive at first glance, but he struck out 28.5% of opponents while keeping his walk rate down to a 10.8% clip. He also kept 44.8% of batted balls on the ground. His .327 batting average on balls in play and 63.9% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of average, which is why his 3.97 FIP was almost a full run better than his ERA.

Macko hasn’t yet reached Double-A but the Jays evidently thought there was at least some chance of him getting attention in the Rule 5. Instead, they will give him a roster spot and install him as pitching depth as he will try to work his way towards his big league debut.

Seven Players Reject Qualifying Offers

By Darragh McDonald | November 14, 2023 at 3:00pm CDT

All seven players who received a $20.325MM qualifying offer this year have rejected it, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deadline for a decision is today at 3 pm Central but it seems all of Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell have already made up their minds.

There wasn’t much drama with any of these decisions, as all seven were considered locks to reject and still collect sizeable free agent contracts. On MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents, six of the seven player were predicted to get a nine-figure deal in the coming months. The only exception was Gray, who was limited by his 34 years of age to a prediction of $90MM over four years. The players had one week to gauge the market after receiving those QOs and it doesn’t seem any of them got any sense that accepting the one-year deal was a wise course of action.

There would have been more drama if some borderline candidates had been issued QOs, but it was a fairly conservative group this winter. Last year, 12 players received QOs and Martín Pérez and Joc Pederson eventually accepted. But none of this year’s on-the-cusp players got the offer, with each of Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier heading into free agency unencumbered.

Each of the players who received and rejected the QO will now net their former club draft pick compensation in the event they sign elsewhere this winter. The value of that compensation will depend upon whether the club received revenue sharing or paid the competitive balance tax in 2023. The signing club would also be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a reduction of international bonus pool space, with the penalty also dependant on revenue sharing and CBT status.

Matt Chapman Turned Down Prior Extension Offer From Blue Jays

By Mark Polishuk | November 14, 2023 at 10:15am CDT

The Blue Jays made an attempt at extending Matt Chapman before he reached free agency, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reports, but Chapman rejected Toronto’s offer. It isn’t known exactly when the Jays made the offer or how much was on the table, though Mitchell indicates that Chapman passed on more than $100MM over the span of a four- or five-year contract.

This is notably less than the six-year, $150MM deal that MLB Trade Rumors is predicting for Chapman, who ranked seventh on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents. With Shohei Ohtani as a DH-only player, Cody Bellinger (ranked #2) and Chapman are the only true position players ranked within the top 11 on MLBTR’s list, amidst a free agent class that is heavy on pitching.

The relative lack of position-player depth on the market is to Chapman’s benefit after something of a shaky season. Chapman generated 3.5 fWAR largely on the strength another outstanding defensive performance, as Chapman earned the fourth Gold Glove of his career. His .240/.330/.424 slash line and 17 homers over 581 plate appearances resulted in an above-average 110 wRC+, though Chapman struggled badly at the plate after winning AL Player Of The Month honors in April, and a finger injury later in the season contributed in part to those struggles.

However, Chapman’s hard-contact numbers were among the best of any player in baseball. This has been a trend throughout much of Chapman’s career, and 2023 also continued his track record of above-average walk rates and a lot of strikeouts. Since Chapman was on a hot streak at the plate in July and early August, agent Scott Boras will surely point to the finger injury as the major culprit for the offensive downturn, arguing that a healthy Chapman will post better numbers going forward….and thus be worthy of a heftier contract.

It is relatively rare to see top-tier free agents like Chapman accept extension offers so close to free agency, and very rare to see a Boras client pass up a chance at testing the open market. Mitchell feels that the Blue Jays might still be candidates to re-sign Chapman, but perhaps only in a situation where Chapman circles back if he can’t find a larger deal, rather than a case of the Jays increasing their offer.

Since Chapman will almost surely reject the one-year, $20.325MM qualifying offer before today’s deadline, the Blue Jays stand to recoup an extra draft pick if Chapman signs elsewhere. This compensatory pick would fall between the fourth and fifth rounds of the 2024 draft, since Toronto surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2023. The Jays are looking for multiple position players whether or not Chapman returns, though obviously retaining the third baseman would address one major hole in the lineup.

Blue Jays Hire DeMarlo Hale As Associate Manager

By Darragh McDonald | November 13, 2023 at 2:18pm CDT

The Blue Jays announced that they have hired DeMarlo Hale as associate manager, working under manager John Schneider.

It’s a homecoming for Hale, 62, who was with the Jays as bench coach from 2013 to 2018. He then went to the Atlanta organization for the 2019 and 2020 seasons, working the first year in the minors and then joining the major league coaching staff in the second.

For the past three seasons, Hale has been the bench coach for the Guardians, working under Terry Francona. That has occasionally given Hale managerial opportunities on an interim basis, as Francona has had to step away at times due to health issues.

The Guardians are making some shifts to their staff this year, which will be their first without Francona in quite some time. He is stepping aside and the club hired Stephen Vogt to take his place, with Craig Albernaz also coming aboard as major league field coordinator. Zack Meisel of The Athletic reported last week that Hale was still deciding whether or not to return to Cleveland but it appears he will make the return trip to Toronto.

The Jays have also been doing some shuffling on their staff. Don Mattingly was the bench coach in 2023 and will continue in that role next year, though the club recently added “offensive coordinator” to his title. It isn’t exactly clear what Hale’s associate manager title will cover, but it’s possible some of Mattingly’s bench coach duties might fall to Hale if Mattingly is going to be doing some hitting coach-type stuff. Mattingly is also a candidate for the open managerial vacancy in Milwaukee, so perhaps Hale gives the Jays a fallback if the Brewers end up plucking Mattingly away.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Donovan, Nootbaar, Watson, Judge

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2023 at 4:57pm CDT

Before signing Willson Contreras last winter, the Cardinals were known to be considering catching options on the trade market, which included talks with the Blue Jays about their then-surplus of Gabriel Moreno (who was eventually dealt to the Diamondbacks), Alejandro Kirk, and Danny Jansen. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch shed some light on those past talks between the Jays and Cards, writing that Toronto had interest in Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan.

With Goold also reporting earlier this week that Dylan Carlson was on the Jays’ radar this winter, there’s plenty of reason to think that Toronto and St. Louis could line up on some sort of trade this winter. Nootbaar could slide perfectly into the Blue Jays’ left field vacancy, while Donovan’s ability to play almost any position would give Toronto lots of flexibility in figuring out how it wants to address its many needs around the diamond. Of course, several teams have also made calls about Nootbaar, Donovan, and Carlson, and it remains to be seen if the Jays could outbid the field, if the Jays have the available pitching that the Cardinals are badly seeking this offseason, or even if St. Louis dealt any of these particular players whatsoever.

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