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Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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Trey Mancini, Orioles Have Not Yet Discussed Extension

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Orioles’ first baseman/corner outfielder Trey Mancini addressed his future with reporters this afternoon. While Mancini reiterated his desire to remain in Baltimore, the organization has not yet approached him about an extension, he said (via Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball). Nevertheless, Mancini added that he’s “pretty confident” he won’t be traded this offseason, although he acknowledged that’s hardly within his control (via Joe Trezza of MLB.com).

There are myriad options for GM Mike Elias and the rest of the front office to take with Mancini. There are plausible cases for the organization to lock him up long-term or to move him this offseason. Alternatively, there needn’t be a mandate on the organization’s part to commit to anything just yet. Mancini, 28 in March, is entering his first year of arbitration and won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2022. Projected for a reasonable $5.7MM salary, the Orioles could simply elect to tender Mancini a contract and plug him back into the middle of the lineup next season.

There are reasons why it makes some sense to be decisive now, though. Last year, Mancini slashed .291/.364/.535 with 35 home runs. He was easily the Orioles’ best hitter, and he finished tied for 30th among qualifiers with a 132 wRC+. That outpaced the fine but unexciting work Mancini did at the plate over his first two-plus MLB seasons. He entered 2019 with a career .268/.319/.458 slash, hardly remarkable for a bat-first player.

If the Orioles’ front office expects Mancini to regress towards his career norms, the time could be right to move him. The free agent market for first basemen isn’t particularly robust, and it stands to reason Mancini will never have more trade value than he does right now. Even if he continues to hit well next season, he’ll inch closer to free agency. His high home run and RBI totals figure to run up a pricey arbitration tag in the coming years, too. With the Orioles almost sure to be noncompetitive again in 2020, perhaps Mancini’s peak years ought be spent outside of Baltimore.

On the other hand, there’s value to having quality players around, even at the lowest depths of a rebuild. Mancini’s a likable and productive player. Moving him would certainly be a tough pill for some fans to swallow. (Of course, that didn’t stop the Orioles from waiving Jonathan Villar, Mancini’s only competition for Baltimore’s best player, earlier this week in a cost-cutting move). Mancini is also young enough to potentially be a part of Baltimore’s next competitive club, especially if he continues to be willing to work out a long-term arrangement. Bat-first players haven’t generated particularly exciting returns in trade the past few seasons. It’s certainly possible that Baltimore could have trouble finding an offer sufficient to part with their most recognizable player. If that indeed proves to be the case, there could be value to engaging with him on an extension.

A new contract would at the very least give both player and organization some cost certainty moving forward. As noted, Mancini’s skillset tends to be more highly-regarded by arbitrators than by current MLB front offices. The Orioles might prefer to lock in Mancini’s salary for the next few years rather than risk exorbitant arbitration awards, particularly if the player is willing to forfeit a would-be free agent year or two. Today’s news that the organization has yet to approach Mancini hardly precludes them from doing so at a later date this offseason.

AL East Notes: Avisail, Pedroia, Johnson, Orioles

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Avisail Garcia has been a popular figure in the first weeks of free agency, and his list of suitors includes Garcia’s most recent organization.  “There is interest, and engagement” from the Rays in a reunion with Garcia, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, updating his own report from late October that originally detailed the potential for another contract between the two sides.  Garcia was a nice low-cost buy for Tampa last offseason, as the outfielder inked a one-year, $3.5MM deal with the Rays and hit .282/.332/.464 with 20 homers (good for a 111 OPS+ and 112 wRC+) while posting slightly above-average hard-hit ball numbers and defensive metrics in right field.

This solid but unspectacular season might keep Garcia within Tampa Bay’s rather limited price range, as MLBTR predicted only a two-year, $12MM deal for Garcia this winter.  A bigger question could be where Garcia fits into a Rays outfield that already has Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows, though the right-handed hitting Garcia is a nice complement amidst lefty swingers like Meadows and first base/DH options like Ji-Man Choi and Nate Lowe.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • While Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia intends to resume his career in 2020 after multiple knee surgeries, “the most optimistic projection for Pedroia would be playing for the Sox in late May or June,” Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe hears from multiple sources.  Pedroia has appeared in only nine games over the last two seasons, and with so much uncertainty around his availability, second base is a clear area of need for the team this winter.
  • Both Abraham and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford were surprised by Boston’s decision to waive left-hander Brian Johnson earlier this week, though Johnson remained with the Red Sox (and outrighted off the 40-man roster) after going unclaimed.  Johnson is also out of minor league options, which dimmed his value to other teams, Abraham hears from an evaluator.  The timing of the move may have been tactical on the club’s part, Bradford notes, as Johnson was waived not long after other teams had set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and thus didn’t have the space to spare on a southpaw who pitched well in 2017-18 before struggling last year.  The transaction caught Johnson himself by surprise, as he told Bradford, though “in the grand scheme of things I’m just not on the 40-man.  My goals don’t change.  I have the same goal going into spring training, fighting for a job either in the bullpen or starting.”
  • Some of the offseason’s early moves have seemingly removed two potential Orioles trade partners for Trey Mancini or Mychal Givens, the Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli writes.  Mancini could have been a possible long-term piece for a White Sox team that appears ready to start competing, but Chicago’s extension with Jose Abreu and signing of Yasmani Grandal (as a part-time first baseman and DH, to go with his catching duties) would seem to limit Mancini to the outfield for the Sox, a less-than-ideal defensive fit.  As for Givens, the Braves had interest in the right-hander at the trade deadline but have now addressed their bullpen needs by signing Will Smith and re-signing Chris Martin and Darren O’Day.

Orioles Notes: Elias, Middle Infield, Mancini, Ynoa, Mallee

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Orioles GM Mike Elias addressed several topics in an interview on 105.7 The Fan radio tonight, with MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter links) and MLB.com’s Joe Trezza (Twitter links) among the reporters who shared some highlights.  Elias noted that the Orioles’ winter shopping list includes pitching, veteran middle infield help, and a defensive shortstop.  Such a focus on the middle infield doesn’t necessarily indicate a change from the combination of shortstop Jonathan Villar and second baseman Hanser Alberto, though given Villar’s big $10.4MM projected arbitration salary has led to a lot of speculation that the O’s will look to trade or non-tender him.  While not mentioning any names, Elias said the club has to make “tough decisions” in regards to whether or not to tender contracts to all seven of their arb-eligible players.

In other general transactional news, Elias again stated that his front office is open to listening on trade offers for any player as Baltimore continues its rebuild.  This includes Trey Mancini, though Elias said “we expect him to stay here,” noting that he hopes Mancini could be signed to a long-term contract.

More from Charm City…

  • Gabriel Ynoa re-signed with the Orioles the same day that he was outrighted off their 40-man roster last offseason, though another quick reunion doesn’t appear likely this winter, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  It isn’t to say that Ynoa might not return on another minor league deal, but the righty will first see if he can land a Major League contract — possibly a tall order after a 2019 season that saw Ynoa post a 5.61 ERA, 2.58 K/BB rate, and 5.4 K/9 over 110 1/2 innings for Baltimore, while surrendering a whopping 29 home runs.  The O’s may also look for more accomplished pitching options before maybe circling back to Ynoa later in the offseason.
  • From that same piece, Kubatko also reports that the Orioles had John Mallee as a candidate to join the team’s coaching staff before Mallee accepted a position with the Angels as their new assistant hitting coach.  Mallee had some significant ties to the Orioles, as he and manager Brandon Hyde both worked together on the Cubs’ coaching staff under Joe Maddon, and Mallee was the Astros’ hitting coach in 2013-14 when Baltimore GM Mike Elias was working in Houston’s front office.

Orioles Notes: Anderson, Mancini, Hays

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Brady Anderson, who formerly served as the Orioles’ vice president of baseball operations, is “stepping aside” and leaving the organization, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports (via Twitter). Anderson, Gary Rajsich and Brian Graham were entrusted with interim oversight of the baseball operations department in Baltimore following the dismissal of GM Dan Duquette last winter, and less than a year later, the entire trio is gone from the organization. Rajsich’s contract wasn’t renewed for the 2019 season, while Graham was fired not long after new GM Mike Elias was hired.

Under the previous front-office regime, Anderson had seemingly risen to a fairly prominent standing. It’s been widely reported that he played a major role in the team’s signings of both Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner late in the 2018-19 offseason, although the Cobb signing has gone particularly awry. His role under Elias had been considerably less integral from a baseball operations vantage point, though; Anderson served in an advisory role with the team’s conditioning and fitness programs, per Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Whatever role the Orioles might’ve had in mind for him in 2020, if any, it seems that Anderson instead preferred to explore potential new opportunities.

A couple more notes out of Baltimore…

  • Another 100-loss season hasn’t swayed Trey Mancini’s commitment to the Orioles, writes Meoli in a separate column. The Orioles’ 2019 leader in home runs (35), Mancini says that his desire to remain in Baltimore has “never wavered at all.” The 27-year-old slugger, who’ll turn 28 next March, likes the direction the team is headed under Elias & Co. and has firmly bought into the Orioles’ rebuilding efforts. Mancini’s own improvement at the plate has been one of the biggest positives with regard to the club’s future outlook. His 2018 season yielded an ugly .242/.299/.416 batting line, but Mancini erupted with a .291/.364/.535 batting line to go along with those 35 homers in 2019. He also improved his walk rate by 2.4 percent and cut his strikeout rate by three percent. He’ll be in for quite the pay increase this winter in his first offseason of arbitration eligibility and is under club control through the 2022 season. However, Mancini has been vocal about hoping to remain in Baltimore, so perhaps the two sides will discuss the possibility of a longer-term arrangement next spring.
  • Outfielder Austin Hays had been slated to play in the Arizona Fall League, but the Orioles have “changed their plans” for the resurgent top prospect, MLB.com’s Joe Trezza tweets. Hays won’t play in the AFL after all, but the 24-year-old certainly looks to have rebuilt his stock with a bounceback year. Injury limited Hays to just 75 unproductive games in 2018, but he suited up for 108 games across four minor league levels and the Majors in 2019. Hays reemerged at the MLB level in September, hitting .309/.373/.574 with four home runs in 75 plate appearances down the stretch. He’ll head into Spring Training as one of the favorites (if not the favorite) to open the 2020 season in center field.

AL East Notes: Lowe, Mancini, Fisher

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The Rays’ decision to option Nate Lowe back to Triple-A Durham following the trade deadline was a “very tough call,” manager Kevin Cash tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. With the acquisition of Jesus Aguilar, however, the Rays had three first basemen on the roster and Ji-Man Choi’s lack of minor league options once again came into play. Tampa Bay seems loath to risk losing Choi on waivers, but Lowe has handily outperformed him at the plate so far, hitting .294/.362/.510 to Choi’s .265/.361/.423. Choi has shown better knowledge of the strike zone, but Lowe nevertheless appears to be the better offensive option between the two (even if he’s had some good fortune in terms of a .362 average on balls in play). Cash expects that Lowe will be back up with the club “soon,” but that redundancy will eventually be an issue the Rays need to address.

More out of the AL East…

  • Trey Mancini remains in Baltimore after the trade deadline, but the decision not to move him doesn’t mean an extension is the next step for the slugger. “Looking at contract extensions is just not at the forefront of my plate right now,” Orioles general manager Mike Elias tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, “but certainly he’s an attractive guy to have here for a while.” It’s not the first time that Elias, hired to spearhead the Orioles’ rebuild this offseason, has suggested that he views Mancini as a potential long-term piece. But Mancini is already controlled through 2022 — his age-30 season. Given that he won’t even reach arbitration until this winter, there’s simply not much urgency to extend Mancini, even if he’s in the midst of the best season of his young career. Through 443 plate appearances, Mancini has posted a robust .282/.343/.539 slash (130 OPS+) with a career-high 25 home runs. Elias also praised the recent play of outfielder Anthony Santander the manner in which he has begun to establish himself as a viable big league hitter.
  • The Blue Jays have a crowded outfield mix, but newly acquired Derek Fisher is going to get regular playing time and an opportunity to establish himself as a fixture in the Toronto outfield, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes. Most of Fisher’s reps will come in center or right field, as Toronto doesn’t want to disrupt Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s transition to left field (or his offensive breakout). That leaves Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk and Billy McKinney vying for playing time between center, right and occasional reps at DH. Hernandez has been on an otherworldly tear, clubbing seven homers and three doubles in his past 15 games, which should help to keep him in the lineup. If there’s to be an odd man out, McKinney seems the likeliest candidate, given that he has minor league options remaining. But the semi logjam also serves as a reminder that Randal Grichuk hasn’t performed anywhere near as well as hoped in the first season of the head-scratching extension to which the Jays signed him back in April. He’s played solid defense, but Grichuk hasn’t exactly seized an everyday role with his .232/.290/.418 batting line.

Trey Mancini Drawing Interest

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Orioles outfielder Trey Mancini hasn’t been a hot name in the run-up to the trade deadline, but MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that he’s coming up in late talks. The Astros, Rangers, and Rays are all said to have interest.

Mancini, 27, will be eligible for arbitration for the first time in the offseason to come. He’s off to an excellent start at the plate, putting a subpar 2018 season in the rearview mirror. Through 434 plate appearances, Mancini is slashing .280/.341/.532. He grabbed the 50th spot on our ranking of the top trade candidates based upon his evident talent and contractual upside.

For the O’s, nothing is bolted to the floor. But the Baltimore club surely isn’t in a rush to trade its best player, particularly since he’s a marketable figure at an organizational low point. Lovely as Camden Yards is standing alone, stars are needed to bring fans in and send merchandise out of the ballpark gates.

The slate of clubs with interest is itself both interesting and telling. It’s clear that Mancini isn’t a classic trade deadline piece, so much as a very good player with a great contract situation who is drawing teams that are interested in him from a talent standpoint. Roster fit and the situation in the standings are to some extent secondary considerations.

For the Astros, adding Mancini would mean putting another big bat into a lineup mix that’s already strewn with them. The priority in Houston is surely pitching. One wonders whether the connection is based upon some scenarios involving multiple other moving pieces.

The Rangers, meanwhile, are all but buried out of contention. But the team is looking to remain competitive and ramp right back up next year. Coming away with Mancini would mean adding a righty slugger to partner up with star Joey Gallo. The Texas org obviously wouldn’t be valuing Mancini for his late-2019 contributions, but for the three years of control thereafter.

It’s also a bit of an opportunistic possibility for the Rays, who have more immediate incentive than the Rangers but less than the Astros. The Tampa Bay club is always searching for value and has been connected to multiple righty outfield bats, so it isn’t surprising to see that they’ve propped open a door on Mancini. With loads of young talent, especially in the infield, it’s possible the Rays could come up with some creative packages in search of a match with their division rivals.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Mancini, Means, Rays

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Despite a depleted farm system and a payroll that is dangerously close to crossing the $246MM maximum luxury tax penalty line for the second straight year, the Red Sox have “confidence” that “they can make an impactful deal before the deadline,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets.  The Sox picked up Andrew Cashner earlier this month, though they still have needs in the bullpen and rotation, plus possibly the bench.  Relief pitching seems to be Boston’s top priority, given that the club has been linked to such names as Kirby Yates, Ken Giles, and Daniel Hudson on the rumor mill.

To this end, Olney opines that the Mets’ Edwin Diaz could doubly fit Boston as a prominent upgrade at relatively low cost, as Diaz isn’t arbitration-eligible until this offseason.  Then again, several other teams are interested in Diaz, and since the Mets have put a big price tag on the closer despite his struggles in 2019, the Red Sox might not have the minor league depth to win a bidding war.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Orioles are discussing Trey Mancini with “multiple suitors,” MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).  I looked at Mancini as a trade candidate back in May, and he has kept raking ever since, with 24 homers and a .279/.338/.531 slash line over 429 plate appearances this season.  Mancini isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2022 season, though since the O’s may not be out of rebuilding mode even in three years’ time, it makes sense that they would see if they could strike a big deal while Mancini’s value may be at its highest.
  • Orioles left-hander John Means is hopeful that his current stint on the injured list will only result in a single missed start, as he told MLB.com’s Joe Trezza and other reporters that an MRI on his left biceps didn’t reveal any structural damage, and only minor rotator cuff inflammation.  Means has been one of the few bright spots on the pitching front for Baltimore this season, posting a 3.12 ERA over 98 innings and representing the O’s in the All-Star team.
  • Sunday’s three-player trade between the Rays and Indians was likely inspired by both a 40-man roster crunch, and July 31 being the new absolute trade deadline this season, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (Twitter links).  Both Hunter Wood and Christian Arroyo were out of options next season, plus the Rays needed to create at least one 40-man roster opening for the newly-acquired Eric Sogard plus any other players they could add in trades before the deadline.  Plus, Tyler Glasnow and Anthony Banda need 40-man spots when they’re activated off the 60-day injured list.  In past years, the Rays could have dealt with Glasnow and Banda’s situations in August when they were ready to be activated, but this year, they felt the need to act early to create roster space rather than designate the likes of Wood or Arroyo in August and lose them for nothing on a waiver claim.  It will be interesting to see if we get more deals of this ilk over the next few days, as teams look to do some roster clearance now since their options are so limited after July 31.

Trade Candidates: Top 5 Hitters By xwOBA

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Plenty of major league hitters are trade candidates leading up to the July 31 deadline, but which ones truly stand out as players who could help a team’s offense down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the cream of the crop (minimum 100 plate appearances), with help from the enormous trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week and Statcast’s expected weighted-on base average metric…

Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays: expected weighted-on base average: .387; real wOBA: .332

  • Smoak’s .211/.350/.406 line (106 wRC+) isn’t pretty, nor does the impending free-agent first baseman play a premium position. However, judging by the 55-point gap between his xwOBA and wOBA, the switch-hitting Smoak has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year and someone whose presence could be a late-season boon for a playoff-level team. He’s also sporting an unfortunate .219 batting average on balls in play, down from a lifetime .267, and has amassed almost as many unintentional walks (49) as strikeouts (60).

Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: xwOBA: .379; real wOBA: .350

  • Unlike Smoak, Reyes comes with several seasons of control. The 24-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021 or free agency until the conclusion of 2024, so prying Freyes from the up-and-coming Padres wouldn’t be an easy task. While Reyes’ work in right field hasn’t been great this year (minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, neutral Ultimate Zone Rating), he has established himself as an above-average offensive player dating back to his 2018 debut. This season, the right-handed slugger’s slashing .253/.307/.540 (115 wRC+) with the majors’ seventh-most home runs (25). Reyes is also a Statcast favorite, not just because of his impressive xwOBA. He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in expected batting average, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity.

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: xwOBA: .370; real wOBA: .343

  • The numbers aren’t quite up to date for Belt, who collected a pair of hits during the Giants’ destruction of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. They don’t alter the picture much, though – with or without them, the 31-year-old Belt has long been a quality major league hitter. Belt has dealt with his fair share of injuries, however, and isn’t locked up to an appealing contract, which are factors that hamper his trade value. He’s on a $16MM salary this year and will earn the same total in each of the next two seasons. Belt also has the right to block a trade to 10 teams.

Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles: xwOBA: .354; real wOBA: .353

  • There are large xwOBA/wOBA gaps for Smoak, Reyes and Belt, but Mancini’s production is apparently just about where it should be. The 27-year-old has batted a strong .281/.340/.500 (119 wRC+) with 17 homers in 373 PA, and as someone who’s on a minimum salary in 2019 and has three seasons of arbitration control left, he could interest teams as a long-term offensive building block. That said, Mancini brings little to the table on the defensive side, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem inclined to trade him unless a highly beneficial offer comes along.

Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: xwOBA: .351; real wOBA: .337

  • Whether the Angels are poised to sell this month is up for debate. After all, they’re a decent 48-46 and five games back of a wild-card spot. If they do deal veterans, though, the 31-year-old Calhoun may hold appeal to other teams. Calhoun has bounced back from a miserable 2018 at the plate to hit .238/.323/.485 (112 wRC+) with 21 homers and a career-high .247 ISO in 373 PA this season, helping put him on track for his fifth campaign of at least 2.0 fWAR. He’s also an adept defender who has posted 2 DRS and a 1.6 UZR in the outfield (mostly right) this year. Because of his solid production this season, Calhoun might not be a pure rental. He’s making $10.5MM now and is controllable through 2020 on a $14MM club option (with a $1MM buyout).

Mike Elias Discusses Orioles’ Deadline Approach, Organizational Progress

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Rookie Orioles GM Mike Elias held a long and interesting chat with Dan Connolly of The Athletic (subscription link), touching upon a host of topics of interest to the broader player market. The full interview transcript is essential reading for fans of the Baltimore organization, in particular, but we’ll cover a few key bits of hot stove relevance here.

Though the Orioles roster isn’t exactly brimming with trade chips, it does have a few of note. Elias says that trade chatter volume is “already very high.” Deadline work is “really the main thing that the front office staff and I are spending our time on now in the month of July.”

While he wasn’t willing and/or able to predict how many moves the O’s will end up swinging this summer, Elias left no doubt that he’s ready for action. He did drop a few clues on some key player assets as well. Elias suggested the Orioles put a high value on reliever Mychal Givens, saying that “he’s striking out more people than ever and is throwing really hard.” While the results haven’t been there for Givens, he figures to be a target of contenders in search of pen upgrades — as we discussed in ranking him the top O’s trade candidate.

The most valuable potential summer trade piece on the roster is surely outfielder Trey Mancini, a player examined not long back by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk. Elias largely reiterated his previously stated stance on Mancini, calling him “a very big part of the future of this team” while reiterating that the team is “in a position in our competitive cycle where we need to be open to anything that comes our way.”

On paper, the single likeliest player to be moved is starter Andrew Cashner. Prior reporting indicates the organization is unsurprisingly quite willing to do so. The veteran righty threw his trade status into some uncertainty with some ambiguous recent comments (also in a chat with Connolly) in which he suggested he’d need to decide whether to accept a trade despite lacking no-trade protection. Elias wisely skirted the topic, saying: “I don’t read too much into it. It’s not anything that we’ve discussed.”

That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a matter of no moment whatsoever. MLBTR’s Steve Adams has argued that Cashner ought to be shifted into a relief role; some clubs would surely consider him as such, particularly entering the postseason. They’ll want assurances that the hurler will report if they strike a deal, making some added work for Elias to avoid complications. The GM heaped praise upon Cashner, saying that he has enjoyed “a big bounceback” and “looks terrific.” No doubt the O’s will hope they can massage the situation and come away with a decent return.

If interest never develops on Cashner, it could still make sense to hang onto him. After all, the club has an interest in filling innings even in a hopeless season. Elias discussed the difficulty of keeping palatable arms on the roster. To his credit, he didn’t sugarcoat the situation or pull punches, acknowledging that the organization has had to rely on players that may not quite have been prepared for the challenge. “They’re working hard,” he said of the many members of the staff, “but it’s difficult to come up and compete in the major leagues [and] in this division against major-league hitters if you don’t have major-league command or major-league stuff or some combination of the two of those things.” The O’s hope to build out greater depth to further “stabilize” the pitching situation. “I think we’ve made some minor additions recently in the past couple weeks and we’ll continue to do that,” said Elias.

That doesn’t mean the long-term focus will change, of course. Elias cited “three broad goals” and identified progress in each area. “[E]levating the talent level across the organization” was an obvious key. The top Baltimore baseball decisionmaker says he was pleased with recent amateur efforts. He calls 1-1 draft pick Adley Rutschman “a player that, across draft years, is somebody that stands out.” Elias also praised the organization’s international efforts: “it was just important for us to get it going and I think that we even exceeded our own expectations.”

Of equal importance for long-term sustainability, Elias gave a glimpse of some of the less visible work being done:

“We also want to elevate the capabilities of our baseball operations department and we have certainly done that on the international side. But [Vice President & Assistant General Manager, Analytics] Sig Mejdal and staff are doing so much behind the scenes to equip our decision-makers and our player development people and our scouting people with tools that they need to do their jobs well and compete around the league and provide us with an edge, one day, in terms of our decision-making and our capabilities. And we’ve got a lot going on there. And we’ve also got all kinds of projects going on behind the scenes in terms of planning with infrastructure, with facilities and all that’s happening. And happening with the support and involvement of ownership. So, I really think we’re moving things in the right direction this year, in a big way. We’re doing it fast and we’re gonna keep going.”

In one other area of particular contractual interest, Elias again addressed the subject of highly paid former slugging star Chris Davis. The 33-year-old has had some moments this year, but there’s no denying that his problems are far from resolved. Elias reiterated the team’s commitment to Davis:

“He’s a big part of this team and this team’s history and we’ve got him here. So it makes sense for everyone to try to make the most of the situation and get him back to where he needs to be. We think it’s possible. And we’ve seen flashes of it and it’s a big priority for us.”

While one wonders whether the O’s will eventually have a breaking point with Davis, who’s owed $23MM annually through 2022 (a chunk of it deferred), the club obviously isn’t there yet.

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