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How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking MLB Hot Stove News

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Would you like to get a notification on your phone every time MLBTR publishes an important story?  It’s something we’ve offered for years for free and it’s easy to set up.

First, download our free five-star Trade Rumors app for iPhone/iPad or Android.  When you open it for the first time, it will ask you if you want to receive notifications.  I recommend choosing notifications for Top Stories, which is just the right amount for me.

But perhaps you’ve had the app for a while, you didn’t set up notifications initially, and you’d like to do so now.  The screen shots below will show you how to do that.  (Side note: if you’re reading this post in the app, the screen shots won’t actually be visible.  I know that’s odd.  But for now if you’re an app user and you want to view this post, go here in a web browser like Safari or Chrome).

Go to the home screen of the app.  It looks like this:

Go to the feed for which you want to set up notifications.  Maybe that’s an entire sport, maybe it’s a team, or maybe it’s a player.  In this case, we’ll set up notifications for the MLB Trade Rumors feed.  Just go to the slider icon to the right of the feed name, which I’ve circled in this screen shot:

After you tap that, you’ll see a pop-up with some choices:

The “Show on homescreen” option does not affect notifications.  It simply lets you decide whether that feed should show All Stories, or be limited to Top Stories, when you browse in the app.

The “New story notifications” section is what we’re looking for here.  Simply choose “Top Stories” or “All Stories,” and hit Done.

Generally, if you’ve got a sport-level feed (MLB, NBA, NFL, or NHL), All Stories would be too many notifications (15+ per day), and I’d recommend Top Stories.  If you’re curious, a Top Story is anything to which we’ve assigned the Newsstand category tag.  For a team or player-level feed, getting notifications for All Stories probably will not blow up your phone.

If you’ve followed this process but have not been receiving notifications you think you should have gotten, please go to the Settings icon in the upper right, scroll down to “Feature Requests or Help,” and send us a message about the issue.

Arbitration Breakdown: Trevor Bauer

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Trevor Bauer’s arbitration cases have gone to a hearing two years in a row, and he has emerged victorious both times. However, his 2019 performance was weaker in several ways, and it remains to be seen how big a raise he can get over his $13MM salary from 2019 in his last year before reaching free agency.

My model does see him getting a sizable $5.6MM raise, mainly due to his career-high 213 innings and 253 strikeouts. After putting up a 2.21 ERA in 2018, Bauer regressed back to a 4.48 ERA in 2019 and actually had a losing record of 11-13 for the first time in four years. This was not merely bad luck either. His FIP worsened by nearly two runs as well, going from 2.44 to 4.34. Of course, with a very low HR/FB in 2018, his FIP benefited. But SIERA adjusts for this and still saw nearly a one-run deterioration from 3.21 to 4.14 for Bauer. Bauer walked a career high 82 hitters while allowing 34 home runs. Despite his higher strikeout total, his K/9 fell slightly from 11.3 to 10.7 in 2019.

Arbitration panels do not use sabermetric stats like FIP or SIERA very frequently, so Bauer’s case will largely come down to his robust 213 innings versus his 4.48 ERA. Finding similar comparables is tricky, but several potential pitchers do emerge.

If we focus on pitchers with at least 180 innings pitched but ERA’s over 4.0 who were entering arbitration for the third or fourth time, we get four pitchers in recent years that seem comparable. Each got raises between $3.0 and $3.55MM, obviously less than Bauer’s $5.6 million projection. Of course, none struck out hitters at anywhere near the clip that Bauer did. Patrick Corbin in 2018 had the highest total strikeouts of the bunch with 178 in 189.2 innings and a 4.03 ERA to go along with a 14-13 record. He got a $3.55MM raise. With fewer innings and way fewer strikeouts, Corbin’s case is clearly weaker. Tanner Roark’s 9-15, 4.34 performance in 180.1 innings earned him a similar raise last year ($3.53MM), while Andrew Cashner’s 184.2 innings and 6-16, 4.34 performance only got him $3.1MM back in 2016. Hector Santiago got a $3.0MM boost in 2017 after going 13-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 182 innings. Each of these four pitchers had a weaker case than Bauer, so his floor is probably in the mid-3’s.

If we flip things to look for pitchers with similar strikeout totals, only three guys with similar service time had 225 strikeouts going into their third of fourth year of arbitration during the last five years. David Price got a $5.75MM raise five years ago after a 15-12, 3.26 campaign, in which he threw 248.1 innings and struck out 271 batters. That case is probably somewhat stale though, even if Price clearly had a better case than Bauer does now. More recently, Gerrit Cole got a $6.75MM raise last year and Jacob deGrom had a $9.6MM raise. The 1.70 ERA that deGrom posted en route to a Cy Young Award clearly makes him a poor comparable for Bauer. Even Cole’s 2.88 ERA is a run and a half better than Bauer’s 4.48. Cole went 15-5 in 200.1 innings and struck out 276. Cole’s $6.75MM raise is obviously a ceiling.

It seems unlikely that Bauer will fall below Patrick Corbin’s $3.55MM raise or best Cole’s $6.75MM raise, and should land somewhere in between. To get the $5.6MM the model projects, he may need to argue that Price’s $5.75MM raise from 2015 is too stale to be relevant, which puts him somewhere in the vague range between Corbin and Cole. I suspect Bauer may not get quite up to that point, although if he does take his case to a panel again, he could quite easily get there if the Reds aim too low. Bauer will certainly be an interesting reference point for pitchers with significant innings and strikeout totals who put up mediocre traditional statistics in future years, since it is obvious that few such cases currently exist.

Seeking Feedback On Our iPhone/iPad App

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Many of you are regular users of our Trade Rumors iOS app, and in fact you may be reading this post through it.  We launched the Trade Rumors app more than five years ago as a mobile-friendly way to read our articles and set up custom notifications.  While we’ve addressed bugs and added a few features along the way, the app is due for a refresh.

If you’re a current user of the Trade Rumors iOS app and you’ve identified a bug or something that doesn’t seem to work correctly, please go to the Settings icon in the upper right, scroll down to “Feature Requests or Help,” and let us know about the issue.  Over the next few months I aim to address any outstanding bugs we can identify.

If you have a feature request or other feedback about the app, we’d love to hear it.  Current app users can use that same “Feature Requests or Help” option.  Plus any MLBTR reader, whether you currently use the app or not, is welcome to email us about it at traderumorsapp@gmail.com or leave feedback in the comments of this post.  If certain feature requests come up repeatedly, we’ll look into adding those to the Trade Rumors app.  For example, adding a Dark Mode option seems to make sense.  Especially since the original MLBTR website color scheme was basically Dark Mode!

If you’re not using our free Trade Rumors app yet, download it today!

Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates: Late-2019 Update

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Since our initial top-trade list of the offseason, we’ve seen a fair bit of activity on that front. Among those who were ranked or otherwise noted, the following ended up on the move: Omar Narvaez, Dylan Bundy, Corey Kluber, Nomar Mazara, Hunter Renfroe, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Marisnick. Now, with free agency humming along, we could see yet more significant players dealt.

This is an updated version of our list. The “methodology” is set forth in the original. It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun.

1. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates (LR: 2): There’s not a full sense of urgency with Marte, who is under control for another season, but there’s a lot of demand in center and he’s a really nice fit for multiple teams. It still feels like some team will step up with a sufficient offer to get the Bucs to bite.

2. Ken Giles, RP, Blue Jays (LR: 1): The Jays have spent on new additions, but it still makes sense to shop a rental reliever in a market starved of high-end relief pitching. Perhaps the Toronto organization will seek MLB assets rather than far-away prospects; maybe the team will even hold Giles and re-assess at the trade deadline if the offers are insufficient.

3. Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians (LR: NR): It’s still not clear just how likely the Indians are to move their best player, but they did just trade Kluber and interest in Lindor has been both robust and persistent. He leaps to the top tier of this list based on his elite talent and the increasing plausibility of a deal.

4. Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers (LR: 6): Several teams have yet to address their needs for starting pitching. With shell-shocking price tags on starters thus far, there’s added appeal in Boyd — a cost-efficient, controllable, durable starter with obvious upside.

5. Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Red Sox (LR: 4): The market has been quiet, but it still stands to reason that the luxury-shaving Boston club will end up finding a taker for their solid center fielder.

6. Dominic Smith, 1B, Mets (LR: 8): Rumors on Smith haven’t exactly flown, but … where does he fit on the Mets roster? The club could really benefit from adding other pieces or freeing payroll space; moving Smith offers the readiest means to accomplish those tasks.

7. Josh Hader, RP, Brewers (LR: NR): It’s awfully tough to gauge the likelihood of a deal involving the star southpaw reliever. But we know the Brewers are at least listening. And the plausibility of a deal perhaps increased when the anticipated cost of his arbitration seasons went through the roof when he snuck in as a Super Two. It’ll take a haul, but there’s a lot of potential interest and Milwaukee front office hasn’t shied away from bold change.

8. David Price, SP, Red Sox (LR: NR): The veteran southpaw underperformed his peripherals last year and doesn’t look quite so expensive after the eye-popping pitching contracts we’ve seen of late. He’s due $32MM annually in each of the next three seasons. The Red Sox would have to eat some money, to be sure, but it’s easier now to imagine a deal coming together. And sending out Price would be the readiest way of clearing the books.

9. Robbie Ray, SP, Diamondbacks (LR: 7): At various times, we’ve seen strong hints that Ray very much is and very much isn’t available. Shrug. The Snakes are always open to high-value scenarios and will consider moving Ray. But if they’re serious about chasing down the Dodgers, they’ll have to sacrifice some amount of future upside to prioritize the present. Hanging onto a high-ceiling arm such as Ray, who could still be dealt mid-season or get a qualifying offer at season’s end, seems like a reasonable risk.

10-11. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Cubs & Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies (LR: 21, NR): There’s a lot of smoke surrounding the third base market. If nothing else, perhaps there are a few enterprising GMs somewhere in the cloud, laboring to spark the tinder that could grow into a raging bonfire. That’s … well, it’s an overwrought metaphor, but you know what we mean. Anthony Rendon and Mike Moustakas are already signed. There are a lot of teams chasing Josh Donaldson. Those that miss could make serious runs at Bryant and Arenado, two of the game’s very best overall players over the past several seasons.

12. Chris Archer, SP, Pirates (LR: 10): Have we mentioned the price of pitching? The Bucs don’t need to move Archer, but this might be an opportune moment. He’s only going to cost $20MM over the next two years, more than half of which isn’t even guaranteed (relevant in the event that he tanks or is hurt in 2020).

13. J.A. Happ, SP, Yankees (LR: NR): The Yanks’ intentions regarding Happ aren’t entirely clear, but rumors have indicated he’s plenty available. And it stands to reason he would be, since he comes with a big luxury tax hit — $17MM, which is also the price of his 2020 salary — and really doesn’t seem a necessary piece of the pitching puzzle in New York.

14. Keone Kela, RP, Pirates (LR: 13): It’s certainly possible the Bucs will prefer not to sell low on Kela, who’s only owed a projected $3.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility. But that could add to the degree of difficulty of the team’s much-needed clubhouse improvement effort. And while there’s upside in holding out for a trade deadline deal, there’s also a risk of getting nothing back.

15. Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees (LR: 9): A few factors have conspired to move down the likelihood of a Frazier swap. The Yankees have spent big on pitching rather than using the trade market to address those needs. The early-season absence of Aaron Hicks leaves more room in the outfield. And the 26th roster spot makes it easier to fit Frazier even with a plethora of other position-player options. There are still scenarios where Frazier, Miguel Andujar, or some other player ends up on the move before the start of the season, but it’s also not hard to see the logic in hanging onto the full slate of bats to open the year with a plan to adapt as things play out.

16. Brad Hand, RP, Indians (LR: NR): This is speculative, as we haven’t seen Hand appear in rumors as a trade candidate. But if the Cleveland organization is willing to hold discussions regarding Lindor, it can’t hang up on callers asking about Hand. The southpaw closer is earning $7MM this year with a $10MM option for 2021, making him a cost-efficient target who’d greatly improve any bullpen in baseball.

17. Wil Myers, OF, Padres (LR: NR): No question about it: this contract is under water. Myers is owed $20MM annually through 2022 (plus a $1MM buyout on an option year). His play hasn’t justified that kind of salary. But the Friars are said to be a bit over budget at the moment and are surely still looking to improve their roster in a season in which they have to make real strides. Structuring a deal involving Myers could be a key part of the puzzle.

18-19. Josh Bell, 1B & Adam Frazier, UTIL, Pirates (LR: 14, NR): We didn’t include Frazier in our last list, but reports indicate he’s getting plenty of interest from other organizations. A versatile defender who has had good overall success against right-handed pitching, Frazier would fit a lot of rosters. It’s also not strictly clear how much trade value the market will reward him. Bell would be valued highly, but it’d be much harder for the Pirates to part with him, even if he didn’t sustain his superstar first half effort in 2019. In both cases, the Pittsburgh organization will want to be wowed to make a deal, but must be open to the possibility.

20-22. Mychal Givens, RP, Orioles; Joe Jimenez, RP, Tigers; Tim Hill, RP, Royals (LR: 15, 16, NR): As with our first list, these relievers stand out as guys that don’t have to be dealt but surely are available for the right price. Hill joins the list after being cited as a target of several contenders. The southpaw offers plenty of cheap control to the Kansas City organization but is already 29 years of age. He carried big groundball numbers last year while also showing an ability to get strikeouts against righties. Givens is the best established of this group, though he’s coming off of a forgettable 2019 season. As for Jimenez, the Tigers will likely remain patient given the lengthy control rights remaining, but the club ought to pursue trade scenarios if there’s serious interest.

23. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs (LR: 23): So if the Cubbies are likely to move one significant player as part of their promised reshuffling, and it doesn’t turn out to be Bryant … one would expect to see Contreras on the move. Then again, cash-strapped though it may be, the Chicago front office can’t just go dumping Contreras for any old return. It’s still possible the Cubs will have a rather wild or a totally tame overall offseason once the dust settle.

24. Mookie Betts, OF, Red Sox (LR: 20): It’s tough to guess the odds of a move involving one of the game’s greatest players. It seems low, but there are some intriguing possibilities. New chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom came up with the Rays, who routinely spin off their best players as they near free agency. Might the Dodgers turn to a full-court press on Betts if they miss on other targets? Could some other team see a chance at vaulting past their rivals in one fell swoop? There has been much talk about how Betts may not be all that valuable on a one-year deal that’s likely to approach $30MM. Well … what about the rarity of the opportunity to rent a mid-prime, ~6-7+ WAR player without promising him gobs of money into his late thirties? There’s immense appeal to that as well.

25. James McCann, C, White Sox (LR: NR): The South Siders have put out word that they like the idea of carrying McCann along with Yasmani Grandal. There’s some sense in that, to be sure, as the former can reduce the load on the latter, who can also line up at designated hitter or first base. But if the White Sox end up adding another significant bat to go with Jose Abreu in the 1B/DH mix, as they’re rumored to be exploring, then the arrangement would seem decidedly less functional. In that event, working out a deal involving McCann might work for all involved. He’d get a better playing time situation, the White Sox could address other needs (either directly or by adding to the club’s prospect/payroll pool), and another organization would find a way to fill a void in a market that has moved quickly on catchers.

Others To Consider

Premium multi-year targets: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox; Mike Clevinger, SP, Indians; Jon Gray, SP, Rockies; Trevor Story, SS, Rockies; Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners; Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles; J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox; Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Red Sox; Whit Merrifield, UTIL, Royals; Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers

Rental targets: Marcus Semien, SS, Athletics; Kirby Yates, RP, Padres; Ian Kennedy, RP, Royals; Joc Pederson, OF, Dodgers; Josh Reddick, OF, Astros; Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants; Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians

Younger players with multi-year control: Kyle Schwarber, OF, Cubs; Johan Camargo, INF, Braves; J.D. Davis, INF/OF, Mets; Steven Matz, SP, Mets; Niko Goodrum, INF/OF, Tigers; Austin Hedges, C, Padres; Ender Inciarte, OF, Braves; Manuel Margot, OF, Padres; Albert Almora Jr., OF, Cubs; Mallex Smith, OF, Mariners; Michael A. Taylor, OF, Nationals; Jose Urena, SP/RP, Marlins; Caleb Smith, SP, Marlins; Tyler Mahle, SP, Reds; Brad Keller, SP, Royals; Abraham Toro, Astros; Joe Musgrove, SP, Pirates 

Veterans on expensive, multi-year contracts: Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants; Matt Carpenter, 3B/1B, Cardinals; Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants; Wade Davis, RP, Rockies; Ian Desmond, OF/IF, Rockies; Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies; Dexter Fowler, OF, Cardinals; Dee Gordon, 2B, Mariners; Evan Longoria, 3B, Giants; Jake McGee, RP, Rockies; Bryan Shaw, RP, Rockies; A.J. Pollock, OF, Dodgers; Jed Lowrie, INF, Mets; Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

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6,886 people entered MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest this year, and the leaderboard is now available.  With a dozen players signed off MLBTR’s Top 50 list, five contest participants currently stand at the top with seven correct predictions.  You can search to find your own name in the leaderboard, and you can click on anyone’s name to see their predictions.  There’s also a Staff Only option, if you’d like to see how MLBTR’s writers are stacking up.  Check out the contest leaderboard today!

SCK Sports Agency Reorganizes As Apex Baseball

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DECEMBER 3: Per an announcement, the former SCK Sports agency has undergone a “reorganization” and will now be known as Apex Baseball. Karon will serve as managing partner. The agency also announced it has hired former big leaguer Scott Cousins to serve as Director of Scouting & Player Development.

NOVEMBER 8: In a statement from SCK Sports partner Adam Karon, the agency announced today that agent Matt Sosnick is no longer affiliated with the organization. Karon and Paul Cobbe will continue to lead the company, which represents a variety of notable baseball players.

Today’s news comes several weeks after it emerged that Sosnick has been arrested on charges of domestic violence against his wife and misdemeanor child endangerment. After a temporary restraining order was issued, Sosnick was reportedly arrested a second time for violating its terms.

It remains unknown at this point what course the legal proceedings against Sosnick will take. Neither is it known whether the Major League Baseball Players Association will pursue any disciplinary or decertification action against the long-time player representative.

Karon issued a statement on the matter, saying: “Our clients have been, and always will be, the firm’s top priority. Through this transition, we remain singularly focused on continuing to provide world class service to the professionals we represent.”

Non-Tendered Players: All 30 Teams

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We just wrapped up one of the busiest days on the Major League Baseball schedule. All 30 teams had to decide by 8 p.m. ET on Monday whether to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. Unsurprisingly, it turns out that there were plenty of cuts. Here’s a team-by-team list of the players clubs parted with Monday…

AL East:

AL West:

AL Central:

NL East:

NL West:

NL Central:

MLB Reportedly Planning To Tweak Injured List Rule For Pitchers

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Major League Baseball is working to implement another change to the rules governing injured list placements, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Teams will now operate under separate rules for hitters and pitchers.

Hitters will continue to have a ten-day minimum injury-list placement. That’s a continuation of the change made in 2016, which dropped the number of days from the preexisting fifteen.

Pitchers, however, will go back to the prior 15-day placement if the rule is finalized. That will raise the bar for placing hurlers on the IL but help to tamp down some of the rather obvious abuses of the system that had cropped up.

It’s not yet clear precisely how some other roster rules will change. There has been prior indication that MLB would look into increasing the length of the minimum time an optioned player must stay down before being summoned back to the big leagues.

The overall goal here, clearly, is to avoid some of the roster hijinks that are used to churn through arms. While there are legitimate health and performance reasons to cycle pitchers, there’s also a point at which there can be a harm to the on-field product as well as to individual players.

Any changes of this nature will need to be done in coordination with the MLB Players Association. Other major rule changes that were agreed upon previously are already set to go into effect for the 2020 season.

Boras On Free Agency, Cole, Strasburg, Castellanos, JDM

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Major League Baseball’s previous couple offseasons didn’t necessarily favor the players. Some free agents sat on the open market far longer than expected, while others signed for less than expected or didn’t receive guaranteed contracts (or any deals) at all. Count the game’s most famous agent, Scott Boras, among those disgusted with the way free agency has gone in recent years, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today details. Speaking at this week’s GM meetings, the always colorful Boras lamented the lack of teams going all-out to win, saying that “the industry is in a competitive hibernation, and the fans are reacting to it,” referring to drops in attendance (as Nightengale notes, even the Nationals, Astros and Yankees drew fewer fans).

“We got a decline in attendance. We got owners charging more for generations that want to see the game, while we’re losing a generation of young people that are only interested in competition,” said Boras. “Clubs feel there are greater rewards for losing than winning. And there is nothing to drive them to win because they don’t think it’s smart.’’

Boras even took aim at current commissioner Rob Manfred, whom he criticized for finding the luxury tax and the present system as a whole “wonderful.” That system, in Boras’ estimation, is “corrupt,” as it fails to “properly place progressive values of players at all. It’s always regressive.”

Of course, Boras’ hope is that the system doesn’t penalize his newest free-agent clients. And he’s representing several prominent players now on the open market, including superstar right-handers Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg and outfielder Nicholas Castellanos. Boras is also the agent for Red Sox J.D. Martinez, who elected against opting out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract. The agent discussed those clients this week.

In regards to Cole, who looks likely to smash David Price’s record guarantee of $217MM for a pitcher, Boras stated (via Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer): “If this were major-league Christmas, we would be looking at 30 stockings that clearly wanted a lump of Cole. I think starting pitching has become back in vogue. It’s an aggressive market.”

Boras also represents outfielder Bryce Harper, who signed the largest deal ever for a free agent last winter at 13 years and $330MM. He opined that Cole and Strasburg are in line to have even more teams after them than Harper did last offseason, per Breen. And while there has been speculation that Cole, a Southern California native, wants to sign with a West Coast team, that’s not necessarily the case.

“I don’t think geography matters to any of these guys as much as the continuance of winning and being able to achieve their goal of getting that rare ring,” Boras said. “And I think in Gerrit’s case, when you’re that close, you’re looking at this process as one where I’ve got a box to check and I want to go out and put together the best effort to put me in that position to do that.”

You wouldn’t expect Boras to say anything else in this case, as doing so could have decreased his client’s earning power. But, regardless of whatever geographic preference Cole may or may not have, the East Coast-stationed Phillies will heavily push for him, Breen reports. They won the bidding for Harper a year ago, and though general manager Matt Klentak has suggested he’s averse to signing more free agents saddled with qualifying offers (as Harper was, and as Cole is), Cole would greatly help a Phillies rotation in dire need of front-end aid.

The Phillies are among the teams that may be in the market for “a lump of Cole,” but that wasn’t the last of Boras’ holiday-themed metaphors. In regards to Castellanos, he stated (per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic): “Old Saint Nick delivers once a year. Young Saint Nick delivers all season. So you’ve got a pretty good market for that kind of player.”

Whether “young Saint Nick” (Castellanos) really “delivers all season” is debatable. He’s clearly a flawed player, one who has been more good than great at the plate throughout his career and has clearly struggled defensively in the outfield and at third base. Nevertheless, as a 27-year-old who does bring an above-average bat to the table, expectations are that he will fare well in free agency. MLBTR has him landing the eighth-highest guarantee of anyone on the market – a four-year, $58MM deal. 

Martinez is something of a souped-up version of Castellanos, but he’s a half-decade older (32) and perhaps even a less viable defender. No doubt, Martinez would have had difficulty outdoing the money left on his pact had he opted out. Boras addressed Martinez’s decision, saying (via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe): “J.D. wanted assurance of competition at a high level and the fact that he played so well in Boston, we looked at it and with those two things in mind, we wanted to make sure that was the focus and for that reason he decided to opt in. The contract we structured allowed him choices after each season so it was something that, in this year at this time, we felt really that was the best decision.”

As Boras noted, Martinez will have another chance to opt out after next season. In the meantime, Boras is sure to focus his attention on several other clients who – despite his (arguably justifiable) distaste for the current system – could break the bank in the coming months.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Diamondbacks feature quite a few roster chameleons, giving the team plenty of options this winter as it seeks to pursue immediate competitiveness without muddying the long-term outlook.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ketel Marte: $21MM through 2022 (including buyouts of 2023-24 options)
  • Yasmany Tomas: $17MM through 2020
  • Eduardo Escobar: $14.5MM through 2021
  • Mike Leake: $6MM through 2020 (Cardinals & Mariners pay remainder of contract, including $9MM of salary and $5MM buyout of 2021 option)
  • Merrill Kelly: $3.5MM through 2020 (including buyout of 2021 option)
  • Diamondbacks also owe $20.667MM of salary to Zack Greinke through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Arizona Diamondbacks depth chart | Arizona Diamondbacks payroll outlook]

We heaped on the praise when the D-Backs announced they had re-upped GM Mike Hazen, and for good reason. He came into a tough spot and has both produced a competitive MLB team and improved the team’s talent pipeline. Shrewd moves abound — chief among them: acquiring and then locking up Ketel Marte before his breakout — even if they haven’t all been winners.

The Diamondbacks have played generally winning baseball in a wholesome and sustainable manner. That’s nice. But they were swept out of their 2017 postseason appearance and haven’t been back since. The Dodgers may not have swum in the Snakes’ pool of late, but they still haven’t let anyone join them in the NL West deep end since they splashed around Chase Field in 2013. And it isn’t as if the L.A. organization has monopolized the division through spending alone; it’s doing it in a cost-efficient manner that’s all the more fearsome for the teams chasing them from afar. If nobody is even nipping at their heels, the Dodgers will just keep cruising.

If the D-Backs are to force the issue in the division, or at least to stand out a bit in a crowded NL wild card picture, they will need both to continue making cost-efficient improvements and to find a way to make a Marte-esque leap. They don’t need to rush out and do another Greinke deal, by any means, but as presently constituted the roster is more solid than good — and that’s assuming healthy campaigns from some players that have had recent injury issues. Hazen still hasn’t promised double-digit millions in a single free agent contract. That seems likely to change this winter.

Looking at the payroll, there’s about $47.5MM written in ink. The arbitration outlay will probably more than double that starting point — if every eligible player is tendered. The Snakes can shear about $9MM if they move on from Jake Lamb and Steven Souza … and double that if they were to non-tender or trade David Peralta. If all three are cut loose, the club would have a few additional holes to deal with but could also have over $30MM in free payroll to play with — assuming the team is again comfortable opening with over $120MM on the books. The D-Backs don’t really have any true blue-chip prospects to use as trade assets, but the club has drawn praise for possessing an especially nice volume of farm talent. That should leave a lot of pieces to work with in trade talks.

So where is the work to be done? Not in the rotation, arguably. The D-Backs have turned over much of their starting staff since this time last year. Robbie Ray is the only holdover from before the 2018-19 offseason. The club brought aboard Luke Weaver and Merrill Kelly before the 2019 season and then added Zac Gallen and Mike Leake during that just-finished campaign. It’s not likely to be an overwhelming unit, but the spots seem ably accounted for. The Snakes surely feel they filled in the gaps when they picked up Gallen and Leake over the summer. The Gallen swap looks like a potential heist, though he’ll need to repeat his stunning breakout season and the Marlins surely feel good about what they saw from prospect Jazz Chisholm after picking him up in the deal. Leake can serve the part of veteran innings eater, joining Kelly to deliver a volume of serviceable frames. Ray is a bit of a wild card but is the kind of strikeout pitcher that teams dream on, while Weaver is coming back from injury but turned in a dozen sterling starts in 2019.

So, should the D-Backs go looking for a nice upside play and/or some depth in free agency? Not necessarily. There’s more to the rotation picture. The uber-talented Taijuan Walker will be working back from Tommy John surgery, with hopes he’ll be available for a good portion of the season. Corbin Martin is doing the same, though he’s unlikely to return before later in the year and is probably not a major factor in the 2020 planning. Jon Duplantier got his first taste of the majors last year and will surely be a factor. Taylor Clarke and Alex Young are among the 40-man roster pieces that contributed last year and can again be called upon; J.B. Bukauskas and Taylor Widener are perhaps the most promising upper-level prospects, though both had less-than-ideal results in 2019.

Some of those arms will spill over to the bullpen; Duplantier and Clarke each spent time there last season. But there’s some work to be done in the relief unit. Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, and mid-season callup Kevin Ginkel make for a nice trio of arms. Yoan Lopez and Stefan Chricton both got the job done in 2019, though the former had questionable peripherals and the latter has to prove he can do it over a full campaign. Matt Andriese suffered from the BABIP blues and could be asked back, though it’ll cost a bit. Otherwise, it’s Jimmie Sherfy and the leftover starters — good for a band name, but questionable for a contending pen.

There isn’t an overwhelming amount of need, but the D-Backs sure could stand to add at least one established, high-quality reliever to this mix. Having utilized Bradley in a flexible manner in recent years, with the closing job being occupied mostly by short-term signees, the team seems a likely bet to once more lure a veteran to the desert with promises of 9th-inning glory. We posited the club as a potential buyer of top-class relievers in compiling our list of the top 50 free agents, though we ultimately predicted a relatively low-cost accord with the sturdy and experienced Steve Cishek. This is certainly an area the team can spend on, particularly if it ticks off other needs at lower-than-expected expense, though the market isn’t exactly laden with high-end arms. The D-Backs could take a risk on a hurler like Dellin Betances and/or explore trade options.

On the position-player side, Hazen could go in quite a few different directions. Let’s start with what is in place. Carson Kelly will be the primary backstop, with Caleb Joseph and/or some other veteran (the Snakes like to carry three catchers) supplementing him. Marte can be lined up in center or at second base alongside shortstop Nick Ahmed. Either way, two of the three slots up the middle are accounted for. At the infield corners, Eduardo Escobar is a fixture while Christian Walker and Kevin Cron can be called upon at first base pending the arrival of Seth Beer. There’s room for a left-handed-hitting reserve in the mold of Lamb, who seems unlikely to be retained at his arb price point after two consecutive forgettable campaigns. And in the outfield, the D-Backs could rely upon Souza and David Peralta for a big chunk of the action … or they could move one or both of those not-insignificant salaries and go in a different direction entirely.

The Snakes gave a lot of plate appearances to light-hitting performers last year. Lamb, Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson, Tim Locastro, Ildemaro Vargas, Josh Rojas, and Blake Swihart combined for nearly two thousand trips to the dish; not one was within a dozen points of league average by measure of wRC+. It’s not a stretch to imagine Locastro, Vargas, and/or Rojas playing significant roles in 2020 and beyond. Ditto utility infielder Domingo Leyba. But the Snakes can’t afford to settle for that level of offensive output from such a major segment of the roster. They’ll need to fill in for the departing players and avoiding asking too much of those that remain from this list.

So, how to proceed? There are two key factors to consider here: Marte’s positional malleability and the payroll/roster flexibility in the corner outfield (and to some extent also at first base). With bench space to work with as well, there are quite a few ways in which the club could seek improvement. It was interesting to hear Hazen suggest recently that the team prefers Marte at second base. It would be easier to fill that spot from outside the organization, given the multitude of possibilities, but it appears the Snakes are likeliest to chase after a center fielder.

Put it all together, and it seems the overall focus is squarely on the outfield grass. Asked recently about Shogo Akiyama, Hazen revealed some level of interest in the Japanese center fielder. The meandering nature of the quote also served to underscore the wide-open nature of the offseason. “We think he’s a good player,” says Hazen of Akiyama. ” … We’re in the outfield market, the center-field market specifically. We’re in the entire market.”

The D-Backs do have some options up the middle, especially if they like Akiyama even more than they’ve already let on. He is arguably the only truly intriguing option on the open market, at least unless Brett Gardner considers a departure from the Yankees. But there are some trade possibilities. Starling Marte is the central focus on the trade market. He’ll be sought after by quite a few other teams as well, but there’s an argument to be made that he fits in just the right space (two years of affordable but not cheap control) for the D-Backs. It’s also possible to imagine the club looking at a few other possibilities. Old friend Ender Inciarte could conceivably be made available, depending upon how things develop in Atlanta. And Jackie Bradley Jr. figures to be dangled by the Red Sox; acquiring him might help quench Hazen’s insatiable thirst for Boston products. (We kid, but there’s no shortage of examples.) If the D-Backs can’t sort out an upgrade and are forced to utilize their existing Marte at times in center, they may come away with a timeshare veteran in the nature of Dyson, Leonys Martin, Juan Lagares, or Cameron Maybin. The club could instead utilize the speedy Locastro in such a capacity as well. Any of these fall-back possibilities would feel like a bit of a disappointment unless the Snakes end up securing other significant pieces.

None of the above-noted center field possibilities will bust the budget. Even if the Snakes score a second Marte, there should be cash left to work with to do more. And this is where things could get yet more interesting. Souza is an obvious non-tender candidate after an injury-cancelled campaign on the heels of a disastrous first year in the desert. But the Snakes could simply decide they like him better than any of the options they can get in free agency for a similar price tag. It’s actually a closer call than you might think on Peralta. He’s a rather accomplished hitter, to be sure, but the track record isn’t unassailable and he’s a 32-year-old looking to return from shoulder problems. And Peralta has long struggled against left-handed pitching. The Snakes might reasonably believe they can do more for less in trade or on the open market, though there has been no suggestion to this point that they are considering moving on.

Whether or not one or both of those players is retained — whether through arbitration or in a re-signing following a non-tender — there are many opportunities to consider. This year’s market includes a group of unusually youthful and talented corner outfielders: Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, Avisail Garcia, and Yasiel Puig. It isn’t hard to fall in love with some of those players’ tools; perhaps the D-Backs could consider a somewhat longer, lower-AAV contract if they like one of the group in particular. There are lefty bats in the form of Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun, and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. There aren’t an immense number of obvious trade targets to consider, but the Diamondbacks could look into the likes of Trey Mancini, Clint Frazier, and perhaps even Mookie Betts or Andrew Benintendi, depending upon what the Red Sox end up pursuing. Though the Snakes have mostly worked to remove big veteran salaries, they could consider a player such as Charlie Blackmon — not that an intra-division deal is likely to be sorted out for such a fan favorite. The same issue applies to the Dodgers, who could end up with an extra outfield piece to move. Relieving the Athletics of their obligations to Stephen Piscotty could conceivably work for both teams. It’s not impossible to imagine the Mets talking about Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, or J.D. Davis. There are plenty of other possible scenarios that may be explored but are even more speculative than the ones just listed.

If that feels like relatively short-term patchwork … well, that’s pretty much what’s available. And it’s also what Hazen has done so well thus far. Putting some added financial gusto behind the effort could yield dividends. Exploring moves to bring in a star makes sense, but that’s a necessarily speculative endeavor. That approach could spill over and meld with the first base and broader bench. As noted above, the D-Backs have some younger players they like. In addition to those already listed, catcher/utilityman Daulton Varsho and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith could be closing in on the majors. But the former is now recovering from an ankle injury and the latter is still working to re-burnish his prospect standing.

Expecting something from the existing, younger players is sensible. But the Diamondbacks can and should reduce their reliance on them as immediate options without cutting off their paths entirely. Short-term veteran role players abound. Lefty bats seem to make particular sense given the existing array in the infield. Brock Holt is among the utility pieces that could shoulder some of the load all over the field. A lefty slugger makes tons of sense to form a platoon at first base, with Eric Thames representing the top of that market. Perhaps Mike Moustakas could reprise his surprise utility role, appearing all over the infield for the Snakes. If the Cards decide to try to shed some of Matt Carpenter’s contract to free up payroll and roster space, perhaps the Arizona org could take a chance on the veteran and come away with another desired piece as well.

It’s frankly hard to pin down a simple task list given the adaptable roster and payroll circumstances — a credit to Hazen’s handiwork. The Snakes have some shape-shifting puzzle pieces and blank Scrabble tiles to work with. It makes for a choose-your-own-offseason decision tree that could take any number of different courses over the months to come.

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