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Health Notes: Judge, Lowrie, Alvarez, Turner

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Strap in for a very mysterious batch of health updates from spring training…

  • Aaron Judge’s health status seems to be unknown to just about everyone right now. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com spoke today with Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, who said that Judge is going through a “car wash” of tests. “He’s obviously going through a series of tests,” Cashman said. “It’s not like one or two, it’s a number approaching seven to 10 total, so they can make sure they have a full evaluation and determine what ails him. When they’re complete, we’ll either be able to tell you we’re in the clear or we’ll be able to tell you that we have a full diagnosis and the timeframe and everything else like that.” Stay tuned.
  • As if trying to outdo Cashman in providing non-answers, Mets infielder Jed Lowrie gave this update about his own status to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. “I have to refer you to the organization.” After referring to the organization via general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, DiComo still got no timeline. Though Van Wagenen did say they are looking into a “transitional” brace to help him get on the field. Lowrie appeared in just nine games for the Mets last year. And it’s unclear if he’ll be able to top that in 2020.
  • Astros outfielder Yordan Álvarez will sit out “three or four days” because of “knee soreness,” according to Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle. Astros manager Dusty Baker says that they’re “going to try to take it easy on him for at least three days.” This is potentially worrying for Astros fans because, as Young notes, Álvarez was playing through similar knee issues last year, although they didn’t stop him from producing Rookie of the Year-winning numbers.
  • And finally, the clearest news of the bunch: Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner was hit by a pitch on the back of his hand, but the X-ray came back negative (Twitter links from Ken Gurnick). If you need any more evidence of Turner being fine, he hit a home run between the HBP and the X-ray.

Korean, Japanese Baseball Leagues Change Schedules Due To Coronavirus

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With much concern around the world regarding the spread of coronavirus, it was inevitable that there’d be an impact on the staging of sporting events. Asia’s two most significant baseball leagues are beginning to adjust their schedules to adapt to a situation in which large public gatherings would not be prudent.

The situation is especially concerning in Korea, which has seen the most cases of infection outside of China (where the disease originated). The Korea Baseball organization is responding by canceling its slate of planned pre-season games, as Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap News reports.

For the KBO, this may only be the beginning. The league is still pondering what to do about the upcoming regular season. Delaying Opening Day (presently scheduled for March 28th) is presumably one possibility.

Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball is also taking action, as the Associated Press reports, but it is taking a somewhat different initial step. The NPB’s spring contests will take place in empty stadiums. There’s still hope of launching the regular season as scheduled on March 20th, but that decision has yet to be made.

Keeping fans away from the spring contests was a “bitter decision,” in the words of the NPB commissioner, but it seems clear that tougher choices could still be to come. In addition to the baseball regular season, Tokyo is scheduled to host the Summer Olympics beginning in late July.

The handling of these difficult questions abroad could help inform Major League Baseball’s approach to the coronavirus situation — if and when it must do so. No doubt the league is already working through contingency plans that would avoid disruption to the extent possible while serving far more important public health imperatives.

MLB Teams Reportedly Pursuing Pre-Arb Extension Blitz

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Pre-arbitration extensions aren’t exactly a new phenomenon. We’ve seen an increasing number of long-term deals with newer MLB players — and even pre-MLB players — over the past decade or so. (Way back in 2013, for instance, I referred to a “baseball-wide trend of … early extensions.”) Last winter featured a dizzying number of extensions, including quite a few involving players that hadn’t yet cracked into the big-dollar earnings stages of their careers.

Some further contracts of that kind were to be expected. But we could be seeing yet more expansion of the kinds of players targeted. The early-career extensions inked by still-youthful reliever Aaron Bummer and swingman Freddy Peralta may only be the tip of the iceberg, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan indicates on Twitter.

It seems there’s something potentially afoot that goes beyond typical team-by-team extension targeting. Passan says that “teams across baseball are trying to lock up pre-arbitration players,” specifically, and that “there could be a rash of such deals in the coming weeks.”

This evidently widespread effort is all the more interesting given the marked open-market shift observed in the just-completed offseason. In each of the two prior winters, free agents — even high-end, younger ones — were approached with obvious reluctance. But MLB teams attacked the 2019-20 market vigorously, doling out both market-moving superstar deals and a series of hefty, lengthy payouts to quality older veterans.

It goes without saying that it’s good for business for a MLB organization to put a quality product on the field. But doing so consistently and in a cost-efficient manner is the gold standard. That’s also naturally quite challenging, since a baseball season is not only a zero-sum game but one that can swing upon innumerable, not-always-controllable factors.

Teams understandably prefer only to enter competitive bidding situations for free agents as needed. It’s not difficult to recognize a team’s potential upside in drafting (or trading for), developing, and then extending a player at an early enough stage in his MLB career that it can lock in low-cost, productive seasons for many years to come. There are obvious risks here as well. The Yankees-Luis Severino extension seemed a slam dunk but has been gutted by unfortunate injuries. But that deal could easily still pay out. Even if it doesn’t, it’d equate to whiffing on a good but not great free agent signing.

Anyway, all of that has long been appreciated and acted upon by MLB teams. So, what to watch for the rest of this spring? Beyond the obvious — whether specific young stars will be approached and wooed — it’ll be interesting to find out how far teams can take this approach. Remember: it’s still unclear just how certain major issues — the next CBA, the lively ball, universal DH, robo umps — will be resolved in the near term. Will there be a chase for upside or an attempt to lock in reasonable rates of pay for solid pieces? Will teams look to get a jump on anticipated changes to the labor market? MLB organizations also value roster flexibility and will be loath to tie up future payroll to non-productive players. Much remains to be seen, but it appears we’re in for another lively and interesting extension season this spring.

How To Draft Mike Trout In Round 3

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In 2019, BABSbaseball.com said we could draft…

  • Charlie Morton (ADP 119) instead of Blake Snell (30)
  • Ketel Marte (220) instead of Lorenzo Cain (66)
  • Matt Olson (109) instead of Khris Davis (45)
  • Austin Meadows (186) instead of Tommy Pham (61)
  • Eloy Jimenez (117) instead of Vlad Guerrero Jr. (46)
  • Zack Greinke (66) instead of Aaron Nola (25)
  • DJ LeMahieu (265) instead of Robinson Cano (123)
  • Mitch Garver (435) instead of Francisco Mejia (249)
  • and on and on…

Winning is all about profit! Ron Shandler’s Broad Assessment Balance Sheet (BABS) uncovers the variances between player skill and draft behavior, which is the secret to fantasy baseball success. Now you can have all the tools you need to build the optimal roster for 2020.

In 2020, there are less expensive, comparably-skilled alternatives up and down your fantasy cheat sheet, for players like Justin Verlander, Aaron Judge, Nolan Arenado, even Mike Trout!

Uncover dozens of profit opportunities at BABSbaseball.com — NOW!

This is a sponsored post from Ron Shandler.

Seeking Microsoft Excel Expert For Paid Project

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You may recall that last month, I sought out experts on MLB salary arbitration.  My goal is to be trained on the traditional method of projecting a player’s arbitration salary.  Many qualified people wrote in offering their expertise, and I was fortunate to be able to hire two of them for my project.

While I’ve identified my arbitration teachers, I now have a better understanding of the stats I’ll need at my fingertips for each player.  Not only do I need a bunch of different stats collected from various sources, but I’ll need to create different multiyear slices of these stats.  The result will be a very robust spreadsheet, referred to as my “grid” in industry parlance.

I’ve got solid enough skills in Microsoft Excel, but I’ll need more than that to assemble the spreadsheet I’m envisioning.  I need an absolute Excel wizard.  This will be well beyond some basic VLOOKUPs.  If you’re a master in Excel and a big fan of baseball statistics, please drop me a line at mlbarbitration@gmail.com explaining your qualifications.  I’m looking for someone who can work with me to create my spreadsheet over the next few months as a paid project.  You do not need to be an expert in arbitration – I’ll explain how I want the spreadsheet to look and function.

Seeking Writers For Pro Hockey Rumors

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Pro Hockey Rumors, MLBTR’s sister site devoted to coverage of the hockey world, is looking to add multiple part-time writers to its staff. The positions pay on an hourly basis. Specifically, PHR is looking for people who have availability at these times of the week (plus some weekend availability may also be needed):

  • 8am – 9am CT, Monday-Friday
  • 8am – 3pm CT, one day per week
  • 3pm – 9pm CT, Monday-Friday

Applicants must meet ALL of the following criteria:

  • Exceptional knowledge of all 31 NHL teams, with no discernible bias.
  • Knowledge of the salary cap, CBA and transaction-related concepts.
  • At least some college education.
  • Extensive writing experience, with professional experience and a background in journalism both strongly preferred.
  • Keen understanding of journalistic principles, ethics and procedures. Completion of basic college-level journalism classes is strongly preferred.
  • Attention to detail — absolutely no spelling errors, especially for player and journalist names.
  • Ability to follow the site’s style and tone.
  • Ability to analyze articles and craft intelligent, well-written posts summing up the news in a few paragraphs. We need someone who can balance creating quick copy with thoughtful analysis. You must be able to add value to breaking news with your own insight, numbers or links to other relevant articles.
  • Ability to use Twitter, Tweetdeck, and an RSS feed reader such as Feedly. In general, you must be able to multi-task.
  • Flexibility. You must be available to work on short notice.

If you’re interested, email prohockeyrumorshelp@gmail.com and take a couple of paragraphs to explain why you qualify and stand out. Be sure to attach your resume to the email.  If you have applied to PHR before, please feel free to submit again.  Many will apply, so unfortunately we cannot respond to every applicant.

Arbitration Exchange Deadline Is Today

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There’s a noon ET deadline today for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arb hearing. Currently, Nolan Arenado’s $26MM figure from last winter stands as the record, although the expectation is that Mookie Betts will set a new benchmark. A few reminders:

  • Players are typically arbitration-eligible three times. Three years of Major League service time is the standard entry point for the arbitration process; a player remains arbitration-eligible until he either signs a multi-year deal buying out his arbitration seasons or until he accrues six years of MLB service time, thus qualifying him for free agency. Typically, players are given raises based on their prior year’s work. The arbitration process tends to focus on fairly basic stats: e.g. plate appearances, batting average, home runs and RBIs for hitters, as well as innings pitched, wins, ERA, saves, holds and strikeouts for pitchers.
  • The top 22 percent of players (in terms of total service time) with between two and three years of service are also eligible as “Super Two” players. These players are eligible for arbitration four times. Brewers reliever Josh Hader, for instance, became arbitration-eligible in this manner this winter.
  • Players who are non-tendered before reaching six years of service time can reenter the arbitration system. Last year, for example, the Angels non-tendered right-hander Matt Shoemaker when he had four-plus years of service. He signed a one-year free-agent deal with the Blue Jays, accrued a full year of service in 2019, and is currently arb-eligible as a player with between five and six years of service.
  • It’s become fairly standard for teams throughout the league to adopt a “file and trial” approach, meaning they’ll cease negotiating on one-year deals once salary figures are exchanged. Clubs that exchange figures with a player will sometimes continue working toward a multi-year deal, but it’s become increasingly rare for teams and players to negotiate one-year deals following the exchange deadline. Arbitration hearings typically begin in early February. Negotiations can continue right up until the point of a hearing.
  • Arbitration contracts, unless specifically negotiated otherwise, are non-guaranteed. Teams can cut any player who agrees to a standard arb deal and owe him only 30 days’ termination pay (roughly one-sixth the salary) up until halfway through Spring Training. Cutting him in the second half of Spring Training but before Opening Day entitles the player to 45 days of termination pay. Arbitration contracts are guaranteed come Opening Day. There are a few fully guaranteed arb deals every year. Royals lefty Mike Montgomery already agreed to one such pact earlier this offseason.

As is the case every offseason, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected arbitration salaries for all of the eligible players. It’s a blanket, algorithm-based approach that doesn’t factor in context of unique or atypical cases, but the model has generally been an accurate barometer. For some higher-profile and/or atypical cases, Matt has gone into detail on why the model may or may not be at risk of missing; you can read these in his Arbitration Breakdown series. Also, as we do every year, we’re providing an Arbitration Tracker to follow along with settlements and, for those that reach the point of exchange, proposed salary figures. You can bookmark MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker as a means of keeping up, and we’ll also be running a pair of posts to track settlements in the American League and National League throughout the morning.

Assessing The State Of The Josh Donaldson Market

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While most of this year’s top-tier free agents could stuff new-team swag in their family’s stockings, veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson remains unsigned a third of the way through January. That’s nothing compared to the laborious matchmaking processes we witnessed last year. And it’s hardly uncommon historically. But it does leave us with at least one protracted offseason drama to witness.

It has seemed at times as if momentum could be building toward a signing. But the latest run of reporting injects new uncertainty into the body of publicly reported information regarding the bidding.

Perhaps growing impatient with the increasingly drawn-out nature of the Donaldson negotiations, and/or seeking leverage in talks, the Twins have begun to explore the trade market for alternative approaches to improving their club, Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic report (subscription required). The Twins, per the report, have “seen an uptick” in the volume of trade talks over the past three days as they explore additions at a variety of positions. The club isn’t limiting itself to corner infield options and remains open to adding a starting pitcher if the opportunity presents itself.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty writes that the Nationals have “all but moved on from Donaldson.” That’s perhaps contradictory with recent reporting indicating that the Nats haven’t pulled their offer, but the two could also coexist. It’s plausible, for instance, that the Nationals could leave their previously standing offer on the table but that the team also doesn’t intend to actively pursue a signing and doesn’t expect to land Donaldson. At minimum, with Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick, Eric Thames and Asdrubal Cabrera all in the fray, the D.C. org obviously feels no pressure to push up its bid.

At this point, it’s fair to wonder just how close the Donaldson camp will get to the third baseman’s reported asking price — said just a few days ago to sit in the vicinity of $110MM. Ever since Anthony Rendon signed, we’ve heard talk of heavy interest in Donaldson. And an expectation has emerged more recently that he would enter the rarefied nine-figure realm. Indeed, as we discussed last week, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that the Twins, Nationals and Braves “all have four-year offers out to [Donaldson] in that $100MM range.”

What exactly constitutes the “$100MM range” is perhaps subject to some degree of interpretation, but the most recent reports out of Minnesota and Atlanta don’t exactly dovetail with that line of thinking. 1500 SKOR North radio’s Darren Wolfson suggested that the Twins’ offer was more in the $80-85MM range, while MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reported on doubt as to whether the Atlanta organization was even close to the top bidder.

Notably, Dougherty writes in the aforementioned Washington Post column that the Nationals did indeed make a four-year, $100MM offer to Donaldson. But it’s important to bear in mind that, with the Nationals more than any other club, the surface-level number of an offer can be somewhat misleading. The Nationals utilize deferred money in their long-term contracts more than any club in baseball, and while there’s been no firm indication that their offer to Donaldson marked a continuation of that trend, it’d hardly be a surprise to learn that’s indeed the case. The Nats, after all, have baked deferrals into the contracts of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez and Matt Wieters in recent years. One of the primary reasons that Rendon was said to have spurned Washington’s final extension offer (seven years, $215MM) was because of significant deferred monies.

The question, then, is where the price pressure will come from at this point if Donaldson and his reps at MVP Sports Group are truly determined to secure a deal in the vicinity of that reported $110MM price point. That Donaldson remains unsigned well into January — Hayes notes that the Twins originally believed he preferred to sign prior to Christmas — suggests that none of the bidders have been willing to do so. And the loss of the Nationals as a driving force could leave Donaldson with two highly cost-conscious organizations patiently engaged in a staring contest.

MVP was able to find $300MM for Manny Machado last February, so we may presume some patience on that side of the table as well. But it’s tougher in this case to identify a club that could emerge as a viable nine-figure suitor for an already 34-year-old third baseman, even after an elite 2019 season. The Dodgers, Rangers, Phillies, and others could afford to but haven’t shown any appetite for a massive, lengthy pact. One or more of those clubs could in theory jolt the market a bit by dangling higher-AAV, shorter-term offers. But even in that scenario, getting into the desired realm would still require prodding the Atlanta and/or Minnesota organizations into stretching their valuations yet further. It could ultimately turn out that D.C. is the only place Donaldson can reach the century mark — even if only in nominal form, depending upon deferrals — though that could certainly still change.

It was always going to be difficult to push Donaldson into this rarefied air. As we debated our top 50 free agent list, we felt there’d be broad and strong interest in the hot corner stalwart. But we ultimately capped the prediction at three years and $75MM based upon his age and health history.

To be sure, we’ve rarely seen a player of quite this present-day ability available on the open market at this precise age. But the data points available suggest that teams have been unwilling both to extend on the length of the deal and to pay a premium annual salary. Kevin Brown was the original $100MM player. So far as we can ascertain, he’s also still the only man to receive a total promise of that magnitude entering his age-34 or later season. (The news of his signing was met with rather boldly stated consternation from some notable figures around the game.) Carlos Beltran was a monster in 2011, his age-34 season, but settled for a two-year, $26M deal in the ensuing winter. His health and performance trajectory in advance of free agency closely mirror those of Donaldson. Much more recently, Ben Zobrist secured four years, but at a relatively modest $56MM guarantee. Defensively limited slugger Edwin Encarnacion took down $60MM over three years entering his age-34 season.

That history hardly constitutes binding precedent. The market is made anew every winter. But there are other headwinds here for Donaldson, with aging curves trending younger and many MLB teams clearly prioritizing long-term payroll flexibility. This winter set up about as well as he could’ve hoped — he turned in a huge bounceback season, leaguewide spending has trended back up, and demand at third base has handily outstripped supply — but making it to his reported target salary always was and still remains an ambitious undertaking.

How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking MLB Hot Stove News

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Would you like to get a notification on your phone every time MLBTR publishes an important story?  It’s something we’ve offered for years for free and it’s easy to set up.

First, download our free five-star Trade Rumors app for iPhone/iPad or Android.  When you open it for the first time, it will ask you if you want to receive notifications.  I recommend choosing notifications for Top Stories, which is just the right amount for me.

But perhaps you’ve had the app for a while, you didn’t set up notifications initially, and you’d like to do so now.  The screen shots below will show you how to do that.  (Side note: if you’re reading this post in the app, the screen shots won’t actually be visible.  I know that’s odd.  But for now if you’re an app user and you want to view this post, go here in a web browser like Safari or Chrome).

Go to the home screen of the app.  It looks like this:

Go to the feed for which you want to set up notifications.  Maybe that’s an entire sport, maybe it’s a team, or maybe it’s a player.  In this case, we’ll set up notifications for the MLB Trade Rumors feed.  Just go to the slider icon to the right of the feed name, which I’ve circled in this screen shot:

After you tap that, you’ll see a pop-up with some choices:

The “Show on homescreen” option does not affect notifications.  It simply lets you decide whether that feed should show All Stories, or be limited to Top Stories, when you browse in the app.

The “New story notifications” section is what we’re looking for here.  Simply choose “Top Stories” or “All Stories,” and hit Done.

Generally, if you’ve got a sport-level feed (MLB, NBA, NFL, or NHL), All Stories would be too many notifications (15+ per day), and I’d recommend Top Stories.  If you’re curious, a Top Story is anything to which we’ve assigned the Newsstand category tag.  For a team or player-level feed, getting notifications for All Stories probably will not blow up your phone.

If you’ve followed this process but have not been receiving notifications you think you should have gotten, please go to the Settings icon in the upper right, scroll down to “Feature Requests or Help,” and send us a message about the issue.

Arbitration Breakdown: Trevor Bauer

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Trevor Bauer’s arbitration cases have gone to a hearing two years in a row, and he has emerged victorious both times. However, his 2019 performance was weaker in several ways, and it remains to be seen how big a raise he can get over his $13MM salary from 2019 in his last year before reaching free agency.

My model does see him getting a sizable $5.6MM raise, mainly due to his career-high 213 innings and 253 strikeouts. After putting up a 2.21 ERA in 2018, Bauer regressed back to a 4.48 ERA in 2019 and actually had a losing record of 11-13 for the first time in four years. This was not merely bad luck either. His FIP worsened by nearly two runs as well, going from 2.44 to 4.34. Of course, with a very low HR/FB in 2018, his FIP benefited. But SIERA adjusts for this and still saw nearly a one-run deterioration from 3.21 to 4.14 for Bauer. Bauer walked a career high 82 hitters while allowing 34 home runs. Despite his higher strikeout total, his K/9 fell slightly from 11.3 to 10.7 in 2019.

Arbitration panels do not use sabermetric stats like FIP or SIERA very frequently, so Bauer’s case will largely come down to his robust 213 innings versus his 4.48 ERA. Finding similar comparables is tricky, but several potential pitchers do emerge.

If we focus on pitchers with at least 180 innings pitched but ERA’s over 4.0 who were entering arbitration for the third or fourth time, we get four pitchers in recent years that seem comparable. Each got raises between $3.0 and $3.55MM, obviously less than Bauer’s $5.6 million projection. Of course, none struck out hitters at anywhere near the clip that Bauer did. Patrick Corbin in 2018 had the highest total strikeouts of the bunch with 178 in 189.2 innings and a 4.03 ERA to go along with a 14-13 record. He got a $3.55MM raise. With fewer innings and way fewer strikeouts, Corbin’s case is clearly weaker. Tanner Roark’s 9-15, 4.34 performance in 180.1 innings earned him a similar raise last year ($3.53MM), while Andrew Cashner’s 184.2 innings and 6-16, 4.34 performance only got him $3.1MM back in 2016. Hector Santiago got a $3.0MM boost in 2017 after going 13-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 182 innings. Each of these four pitchers had a weaker case than Bauer, so his floor is probably in the mid-3’s.

If we flip things to look for pitchers with similar strikeout totals, only three guys with similar service time had 225 strikeouts going into their third of fourth year of arbitration during the last five years. David Price got a $5.75MM raise five years ago after a 15-12, 3.26 campaign, in which he threw 248.1 innings and struck out 271 batters. That case is probably somewhat stale though, even if Price clearly had a better case than Bauer does now. More recently, Gerrit Cole got a $6.75MM raise last year and Jacob deGrom had a $9.6MM raise. The 1.70 ERA that deGrom posted en route to a Cy Young Award clearly makes him a poor comparable for Bauer. Even Cole’s 2.88 ERA is a run and a half better than Bauer’s 4.48. Cole went 15-5 in 200.1 innings and struck out 276. Cole’s $6.75MM raise is obviously a ceiling.

It seems unlikely that Bauer will fall below Patrick Corbin’s $3.55MM raise or best Cole’s $6.75MM raise, and should land somewhere in between. To get the $5.6MM the model projects, he may need to argue that Price’s $5.75MM raise from 2015 is too stale to be relevant, which puts him somewhere in the vague range between Corbin and Cole. I suspect Bauer may not get quite up to that point, although if he does take his case to a panel again, he could quite easily get there if the Reds aim too low. Bauer will certainly be an interesting reference point for pitchers with significant innings and strikeout totals who put up mediocre traditional statistics in future years, since it is obvious that few such cases currently exist.

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