Poll: Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?
Free agent lefty Patrick Corbin is arguably the top hurler on the market this offseason. The former Diamondback timed his ascension to dominance perfectly last season, posting career bests in strikeout rate (11.07 K/9), HR/9 (0.68), FIP (2.47), xFIP (2.61), ERA (3.15), fWAR (6.3) and games started (33) in a pivotal walk year for the 29-year-old. If not for the staggering wire-to-wire performance of Mets righty Jacob deGrom, Corbin’s defense-independent pitching marks would have paced the Senior Circuit, besting even the perennial virtuosity of two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals. In a free agent class replete with everything but top-end arms, Corbin has positioned himself squarely at the top: as our own Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd see it, the hurler is the premier available starting pitcher, set perhaps to command a deal in excess of $125MM over multiple seasons.
Signs of caution, however, do mark the landscape. Though Corbin has fewer innings under his belt than most starters his age, the limited output came with a price – a Tommy John surgery following a breakout 2013 campaign knocked out all of the following season, plus half of the next, and a hopeful rebound in 2016 was derailed by shaky command and a dangerous propensity for giving up the gopher ball. Corbin also relies heavily on a wipeout slider that ranked as the league’s very best in 2018: after a lessened reliance on the pitch in the two-year aftermath of the surgery, the lefty has again ramped up its use, throwing it a shocking 41.3% of the time in 2018, the second-highest among all starting pitchers in baseball last year. The pitch, of course, is renowned for the stress it places on the thrower’s elbow, and has long been circumstantially linked to the UCL tear that precipitates Tommy John.
There’s also the body of work. Never a top prospect, Corbin seemed, after nearly 750 IP at the major-league level following the 2017 season, to have settled comfortably in a place quite near his long-ago projected role: Baseball America reports in 2010 and 2011 pegged him as a “number 3 or four” and “number four” starter, respectively, and the lefty’s minor league performance did little to discredit that view. Acquired from the Angels in a 2010 deadline deal that sent Dan Haren to Los Angeles, Corbin was a secondary piece in the return headlined by former top prospect Tyler Skaggs. The slider-slinging lefty did offer a quality 2013 season, posting an ERA/FIP/xFIP all between 3.40 and 3.50, but the performance coincided with a near all-time offensive low across the league – his park- and league-adjusted xFIP that year, after all, was just eight percent better than league average.
There were more stumbles to follow. A partial-year renaissance in 2015 was followed, in the middle of the next season, by a demotion to the bullpen; despite a career-high 53% ground-ball rate, Corbin’s walk rate ballooned to near four per nine, and he was too often bit by the long ball. Heavier slider use ushered in another rebound in 2017, but shades of last year’s dominance were still scarce: at the conclusion of that season, Patrick Corbin had, in 745 innings pitched, vindicated the scouts’ reports, offering up a perfectly harmonious 97 ERA-/97 FIP-, three percent better than the league average. ZiPS projected to hurler to be slightly better in the 2018 season, pegging him for a 94 ERA-/95 FIP- in the newly-humidor-scarred Chase Field.
So what, then, will teams make of the innings-eater-turned-ace in the new-look pitching environment? Will heavier bullpen dependence suppress the value of starting pitchers across the board? Will teams hold his mostly-middling ways against him, dismissing the recent ascension as outlier? Will the slider-heavy profile give them pause? Or will they double down, certain they’re acquiring a staff-leading ace far into the next decade? And, most notably for this piece, which teams seem mostly likely to fall into the category of the latter?
The Yankees, unsurprisingly, may be his top suitor. Corbin, who was raised outside Syracuse, NY, grew up a Yankee fan: “It would definitely be great to play there,’’ he told Bob Nightengale of the USA Today earlier this year. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. Living up in Syracuse, everybody’s a Yankee fan. Not too many Mets fans up there.’’ The Bombers, who recently re-signed C.C. Sabathia for one final year, still face questions in the rotation’s back half, where a disappointing 2018 performance from Sonny Gray has left him squarely on the the block. The fit between the storied franchise and New York native seems an ideal one, especially in a park that rewards left-handed power like few others – Corbin, for his career, has been death on lefties, striking out nearly 31% of them and allowing just 20 total HR, good for a minuscule 2.54 xFIP against. The Yanks, who last year failed to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold for the first time in 15 seasons, seem primed and ready to make their periodic splash, but whether or not a free agent hurler is foremost in their efforts remains to be seen.
Next in line may be the Phillies, whose team ownership has made no attempt to hide its fervent pursuit of the market’s top assets, with principal owner John Middleton noting that the club could be “a little bit stupid about it.” After a systematic payroll reduction over the last few seasons, the Phillies finally re-announced their presence as a major offseason player with last year’s signing of Jake Arrieta, and again seem ready to pounce in the more bountiful class of 2018-’19. The rotation, which in ’18 had one of the league’s widest ERA-FIP gaps, likely due in large measure to the shoddy left-side defense of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, is chock-full of controllable arms with significant upside, and posted sterling peripherals as a whole last season. Still, uncertainty hovers around the burgeoning careers of righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, each of whom turned a second straight season of poor performance on the back of encouraging secondary stats, and Zach Eflin, who was downright dreadful in limited big-league action before 2018. With the club’s top pitching prospects at least a couple years away, and money to burn across the diamond, the Fightins may elect to prop up an area of strength as they enter a pivotal 2019.
The Braves could also be a major player here, what with the windfall they’ve received from increased attendance at their new Smyrna, GA, home, and question marks all across the rotation. After Mike Foltynewicz, the organization has little on which it can count next season – Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran sprinted to the big leagues oozing promise, but have been mostly uneven since, and heralded rookie Sean Newcomb again battled the command issues that had so often plagued him in the minors. Touki Toussaint was a nice surprise, but he walked nearly seven men per nine in a brief MLB stint last season, and Calgary-born Mike Soroka spent much of the season’s second half on the shelf. The farm is brimming with starting pitching talent of all types, but none have asserted themselves as MLB-ready for 2019. There’s been little indication from GM Alex Anthopolous that the club is looking to make a major splash, but the up-and-coming Braves seem as good a fit as any for the 29-year-old Corbin, should the team decide to move in that direction.
The Astros, perhaps set to lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, could also be a factor. Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free-agents-to-be following the 2019 season, Lance McCullers Jr. just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the ’19 season, and the club’s glut of upper-level starting pitching depth has dwindled in recent years. With GM Jeff Luhnow announcing that the club will move Collin McHugh back to the rotation, two spots are still in flux. Luhnow seemed cryptic when asked about a possible increase in the 2019 payroll, but with so many rotation question marks in the years to come, a top-level arm would seem an ideal fit for the 2017 champions.
The Nationals, who’ve seen a once-historic rotation dwindle to just Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and possible non-tender candidate Tanner Roark, plus a series of who-knows and could-bes, also have the money and the need, should the club decide to pivot away from Bryce Harper. Still, with a whopping $245MM combined owed to Scherzer and Strasburg over the life of their deals, signing another high-priced starter would seem exceedingly unlikely.
Other teams, like the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Angels could be in play, to a lesser degree. Los Angeles has the money, of course, but has been loath to shell it out to a high-priced free agent from outside the organization under GM Andrew Friedman’s watch, and the club is already stocked with quality left-handed arms. The Twins have stripped their payroll to nearly nothing in recent years, but still have a bevy of intriguing rotation options and numerous holes on the offensive side. The Giants, of course, had the league’s highest payroll last season, but still owe over $120MM combined to Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, and don’t figure to be players in the offseason starting pitching market. The Angels, devoid now of anything resembling a top-end arm after Shohei Ohtani‘s Tommy John surgery, could be a background lurker, though the club is still saddled with Albert Pujols‘ albatross for another three seasons and may find other needs more urgent.
Which team will be the one to pull the trigger?
Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?
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New York Yankees 55% (11,212)
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Other 15% (3,048)
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Philadelphia Phillies 12% (2,385)
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Atlanta Braves 8% (1,639)
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Houston Astros 6% (1,143)
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Washington Nationals 4% (905)
Total votes: 20,332
Pitching Market Rumors: Gray, Corbin, Anibal, Keuchel, Parker
The Yankees have received multiple offers for right-hander Sonny Gray and are currently in the process of evaluating them, per SNY’s Andy Martino. GM Brian Cashman has been unusually candid about his plan to move the obvious change-of-scenery candidate, and interest in buying low on the talented righty has reportedly been robust. Gray, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility next year, pitched quite well away from Yankee Stadium and maintained his velocity and ability to miss bats. But he was frequently shelled in the Bronx and ultimately lost his rotation spot late in the season. The Reds are among the teams who’ve been prominently connected to Gray recently, though it stands to reason that upwards of half the league could have interest given his track record.
More rumblings on the market for pitching and bullpen help…
- The Phillies have been primarily connected to Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in free agency, but MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Phils are also eyeing left-hander Patrick Corbin. Philadelphia has substantial payroll flexibility and a sense of urgency on the heels of a late 2018 collapse, but they’ll surely face quite a bit of competition in a pursuit of Corbin. The Yankees and Nationals, too, have shown early interest in Corbin.
- Morosi also notes within that column that the Brewers are exploring the market for rotation help and have shown some preliminary interest in righty Anibal Sanchez. The 34-year-old parlayed a minor league deal with the Braves into an absolutely brilliant rebound campaign that landed him 28th on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent rankings. Beyond a 2.83 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate in 134 1/3 innings, Sanchez also allowed the least hard contact of any pitcher in the game, per Statcast.
- Speaking of generating weak contact, that skill will be at the forefront of agent Scott Boras’ pitch to teams when marketing lefty Dallas Keuchel, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required). Boras, speaking to Rosenthal, tabbed Keuchel as the “soft-contact genius of his era” — and though the title is dripping with characteristic Boras hyperbole, it’s also underscored by truth. As Rosenthal points out, Keuchel leads the Majors in soft-contact rate (26.9 percent) since his big league debut. Boras notes that Keuchel’s age-26 through age-30 seasons stack up comparably with those of Andy Pettitte and Tom Glavine as well — another semi-outlandish but also factual claim that’ll no doubt be in his pitch to owners and top-ranking baseball ops executives.
- Rosenthal also reports that while the Angels are looking to add to both the bullpen and the rotation, it’s also possible they’ll listen to offers on right-hander Blake Parker. The 33-year-old Parker has been terrific find for GM Billy Eppler, pitching to a 2.90 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 22 saves in 133 2/3 innings since being claimed off waivers in December 2016. Parker is arbitration-eligible this winter and projected to earn $3.1MM and is controllable through the 2020 season.
Latest On Trade Interest In Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto
12:36pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that the Marlins’ asking price on Realmuto is viewed by other clubs as “staggering.” Though Realmuto has less control remaining than he did last offseason, he’s coming off a better year and the asking price on him has actually risen from last winter, per Olney.
9:54am: There are as many as 10 teams showing some degree of trade interest in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, who also notes that Miami’s lofty asking price isn’t likely to drop anytime soon. The Astros are one of the many teams in the Realmuto market, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links), but to this point they’ve insisted that either outfielder Kyle Tucker or right-hander Forrest Whitley be at the center of the return. Both players are considered to be among the 10 to 15 best prospects in all of baseball. Morosi adds that the Braves are “actively looking for a catcher,” but the Marlins would prefer not to deal Realmuto within the division.
Miami’s asking price in talks with the Astros somewhat mirrors their previous ask from the division-rival Nationals; Washington has been known to have interest in Realmuto for the past year, but reports have indicated that the starting point in any talks last winter was one of two prized young outfielders: Victor Robles or 2018 Rookie of the Year runner-up Juan Soto. The Nats are reported to be on the lookout for a catcher themselves, but the continued high asking price and Miami’s reported preference to deal him away from the NL East are both working against that outcome. The same can be said of the Mets, who are also in the market for catching help this winter.
The Marlins’ hefty asking price in Realmuto negotiations is perfectly justified, as the 27-year-old has improved with each big league season since debuting in 2014 and is now, arguably, the best all-around catcher in baseball. A lower back injury shelved him for the first month of the 2018 season, but he returned with a flourish, batting .277/.340/.484 with a career-high 21 home runs, 30 doubles and three triples in 531 plate appearances. Realmuto also halted a whopping 38 percent of attempted stolen bases against him.
A trade of Realmuto shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion, however. While agent Jeff Berry of CAA Baseball recently made a point to publicly declare that Realmuto won’t sign an extension in Miami and that he expects a trade this winter, it should be noted that Berry and Realmuto requested a trade last winter on multiple occasions — only for Realmuto to remain in Miami. But Realmuto does have only two seasons of club control remaining before he hits free agency, and it’d be perfectly defensible to take the position that his trade value will never be higher than it is this offseason. He’s among the game’s best catchers, if not the premier catcher in MLB, and can be controlled for two seasons at a total rate of less than $20MM. He’s among the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball at present, and any package for him should begin with at least one elite prospect and/or a young big leaguer Miami can control for the next half decade or so.
Market Chatter: Greinke, Suzuki, Eovaldi, Reds, Nats, Phils
The Diamondbacks are “aggressively shopping” righty Zack Greinke, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). With $95.5MM of salary still due over the next three years, he’s an expensive option. But the deal is at least cabined in length, and the Snakes have a good shot at getting out from under most of it. (Alternatively, the club might be able to pay down a larger portion and recoup some talent in a swap — or go in the other direction and include additional talent to make the whole contract go away.) It’s still largely unclear how things will shake out, but the fact that the Arizona organization is looking for a taker certainly makes a trade seem quite plausible.
Here’s the latest chatter on the rest of the market:
- It is a testament to veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki that he has been re-signed, re-acquired, or extended by three of the four organizations he has played for. One of those, the Athletics, could have designs on a third stint. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, there has already been some discussion between the Oakland club and the 35-year-old free agent. Suzuki has never been more productive at the plate than he was over the past two years with the Braves, when he turned in a cumulative .276/.341/.485 slash with 31 home runs in 697 plate appearances. Slusser also notes that reliever Shawn Kelley remains a possibility to return, with four other teams also inquiring about securing his services.
- Nathan Eovaldi‘s health is a major factor in his free agency. Though he’s only 28 years of age, the righty has undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries and required another elbow procedure before making it back to the mound in 2018. Of course, the results were quite promising, and he has now also received a strong endorsement from his surgeon today, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. Dr. Christopher Ahmad says that, after conducting an extensive examination, he “would consider [Eovaldi] in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm.” While any signing team will want to take a look for itself, it’s obviously quite a notable opinion to receive at the outset of free agency.
- The Reds would surely love to land Eovaldi or another higher-end arm, though it’s still questionable whether they’ll dabble in that end of the market. What is clear, president of baseball operations Dick Williams said in a radio interview, is that the club hopes to find a pair of new pitchers — likely starters (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Getting the right arms won’t just mean waiting to see what shakes loose at a cheap price, says Williams. Rather, the club intends “to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.” Sure enough, Jon Heyman of Fancred says the Reds have engaged with the Mariners (James Paxton), Indians (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco), and Yankees (Sonny Gray). With the Cinci org said to be hesitant to move its best assets, getting the desired arms could mean exploring some creative trades. That said, Williams shot down recent chatter surrounding purported Padres interest in star Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez. “Just to sort of nip that in the bud, I’ll tell you that rumor is unfounded,” said Williams.
- It’s also clear that the Nationals are on the lookout for starters, though here also it’s hard to know just where the team may focus. As I discussed recently in setting forth the team’s outlook for the 2018-19 offseason, there are an abundance of possibilities at this point. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post provides some insight into the club’s thinking while ticking through the options. She notes that the Nats “think highly” of free agent Dallas Keuchel — the match we predicted when we broke down our Top 50 Free Agents. That’s not to say, of course, that he’s a uniquely clear fit in D.C. As Janes explains, the organization still seems likely to canvass the market, though it seems reasonable to anticipate that it’ll come away with at least one significant new hurler.
- Staying in the division, it’s worth looking back at a post we missed at the time. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported recently that the Phillies are quite likely to deal away third baseman Maikel Franco. Indeed, it seems there’s a reasonable match already under contemplation with the Padres. Of course as noted above, the Friars clearly are interested in looking around the rest of the market before pulling the trigger on a deal for Franco. The Phils are also said to be willing to discuss Cesar Hernandez, though he seems much less likely to be shipped out. It’ll be interesting to see how everything will unfold in Philadelphia, as the team is known to be chasing some of the biggest names on the market but also has some less consequential moves that it could contemplate pulling off first.
Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 5 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Five different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Six of the seven players turned down the one-year, $17.9MM offer. Here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.
Astros
The Astros made a qualifying offer to Dallas Keuchel. The Astros were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contract Keuchel signs, the Astros will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.
Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks made qualifying offers to Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock. The D’Backs were a revenue sharing recipient. If Corbin or Pollock signs for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the D’Backs get draft pick compensation after the first round. If one of the players signs for less than $50MM, the Diamondbacks get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. Corbin is a near-lock to sign for more than $50MM, while Pollock is a borderline case. Of the six qualified free agents, the $50MM contract size threshold only matters in the cases of Corbin and Pollock.
Dodgers
The Dodgers made a qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal (Hyun-Jin Ryu already accepted his). Like the Astros, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Grandal signs for, the Dodgers will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.
Nationals
The Nationals made a qualifying offer to Bryce Harper, and the Nats were a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, the Nationals will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Harper signs.
Red Sox
The Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Craig Kimbrel, and the Sox were a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, the Red Sox will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Kimbrel signs.
The Nationals and Red Sox stand to gain fairly unimpressive draft picks, likely somewhere in the 140s. The Astros and Dodgers should get picks in the 80s. The D’Backs should get a pick in the 30s for Corbin. Pollock could land them a pick in the 30s or the 80s depending on whether he gets $50MM.
Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals
The Nationals will again look to bounce back from a bitterly disappointing season, but they’ll again do so with significant resources and reason for optimism.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Max Scherzer, SP: $105MM through 2021 (with assorted deferments)
- Stephen Strasburg, SP: $135MM through 2023 (with assorted deferments; includes opt-outs after 2019, 2020)
- Ryan Zimmerman, 1B: $20MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 option)
- Adam Eaton, OF: $11.4MM through 2019 (includes buyouts of 2020, 2021 options)
- Trevor Rosenthal, RP: $7MM (includes buyout of 2020 vesting option)
- Howie Kendrick, UTIL: $4MM through 2019
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Anthony Rendon (5.130) – $17.6MM
- Tanner Roark (5.055) – $9.8MM
- Trea Turner (2.135) – $5.3MM
- Michael Taylor (4.010) – $3.2MM
- Kyle Barraclough (3.059) – $1.9MM
- Joe Ross (3.067) – $1.5MM
- Sammy Solis (3.061) – $900K
- Non-tender candidates: Roark, Solis
Option Decisions
- Sean Doolittle, RP: Exercised $6MM club option (deal includes $6.5MM club option for 2020, with $500K buyout)
Free Agents
- Joaquin Benoit, Tim Collins, Bryce Harper, Jeremy Hellickson, Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland, Mark Reynolds, Matt Wieters
[Washington Nationals Depth Chart | Washington Nationals Payroll Outlook]
Despite their overall sustained excellence, the Mike Rizzo-era Nationals have yet to end a season in a pleasing manner. Unlike the 2016 and 2017 clubs, which washed out of divisional series in thrilling fashion, the 2018 Nats ground to a halt in something of a slow-motion breakdown.
In years past, Nats disappointments — of all their varying flavors — have not really changed the organization’s trajectory. And for good reason: there have been seven consecutive winning seasons. Sure, it’s possible to interpret a few moves as direct responses to the developments of the season prior (Rafael Soriano, anyone?), but that’s only natural for any team.
Broadly, the march has continued, with Rizzo and co. rather notably managing to transition quite seamlessly from one high-end core to another. It seems foolish to expect anything but the same this winter, with the Nats once again poised to add finishing pieces to a quality existing roster, all while hoping that this time it’ll come together when it matters most.
It’s quite remarkable that this feels in large part like any other offseason for the Nationals. After all, one of the team’s true constants — superstar outfielder Bryce Harper — was due to disembark as the train limped into the station at season’s end. Yet his free agency came as a creeping inevitability — not just because it always seemed a fait accompli that he’d test the open market, but because the Washington organization improbably found a new version of Harper himself in the form of phenom Juan Soto, a 19-year-old, left-handed-hitting corner outfielder who somehow exceeded Harper’s own preternatural blend of pitch recognition, patience, and the ability to drive the ball all over the field.
It remains to be seen (and may never be fully known) whether Soto’s rise will play a significant role in Harper’s ultimate destination. The Nats, no doubt, have signaled they have serious interest in retaining Harper. They held onto him (at the trade deadline and in August) even while conceding more generally and then made a big offer late in the season. It’s obvious that the club did not expect that bid to lead to a deal, but it did set down a marker: the D.C. club will be a factor in Harper’s market, and any other clubs with interest will need to beat that not-insignificant $300MM starting point.
At the same time, the presence of Soto lessens the urgency to retain a player of Harper’s ilk. Every team would love to have that bat, but it’s possible the ultimate victor of the free-agent auction will be one that stands to gain more over its existing in-house alternatives. The Nats can plausibly line up an affordable, controllable, and potentially quite excellent outfield of Soto, Adam Eaton, and Victor Robles — with support from Michael Taylor, Howie Kendrick, and perhaps others — while wishing Harper the best and collecting some draft compensation on his way out the door.
Indeed, a departure is arguably the simpler outcome. Signing Harper would almost certainly require further movement. He and Soto would presumably be penciled in for nearly all of the plate appearances at two of the outfield spots. Robles and Eaton could share time, to be sure, but that’d be a questionable allocation of resources. The former needs to be playing every day at his stage of development, particularly after missing significant time due to injury in 2018. And the latter is too good a player (at least when at full health) to be left picking up playing time scraps.
Resolving that tension is possible, though it isn’t particularly straightforward. It’d be possible to make space with a trade, but parting with Robles would mean giving up a player who many believe is ready to be a core contributor. Selling Eaton, who still hasn’t shown he’s fully recovered from a series of leg injuries, would mean moving him at an inopportune moment. It’s theoretically possible that Harper or Soto could be considered a candidate to share time at first base with Ryan Zimmerman — if not even help replace him after the ’19 campaign — but that is a speculative and perhaps somewhat risky scenario. Were Robles to be made available in trade following a successful pursuit of Harper he’d almost certainly be the biggest prospect available this winter, perhaps giving the Nats the inside track to land another key piece. But it’s also fair to note that Robles is still eligible to be optioned, which isn’t an entirely unlikely scenario at all to open the season.
Whether or not Harper is retained is a massive question for the Nats. Somewhat incongruously, though, it doesn’t really change what the club’s key needs are so much as their means of addressing them. If Harper leaves, it seems much likelier that Robles stays; if Harper goes, then Robles is more expendable and the purse strings will surely be tighter.
In years past, the Nationals have proven willing both to send out prospects and plunk down cash to get their targets for the MLB roster. So — how much cash could the team spend? Some big salaries have come clear of the books, it’s true, but there are also raises to consider. With their current projected roster, the Nats are slated to have roughly $165MM on the books in 2019. That said, this year’s nominal balance sheet includes balloon payments for Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, when in actuality much of the money is owed on a deferred schedule. Moreover, the average annual values of those deals are significantly lower. In calculating the luxury tax — which smooths out any annual changes in long-term deals but does include other costs — the Nats are still something like $50MM shy of the $207MM threshold.
In other words, even if the organization decides to keep Roark, it could in theory add upwards of $50MM in 2019 salary while still remaining south of the tax barrier, a reputed goal of the organization. A forthcoming arbitration hearing regarding the seemingly never-ending MASN TV rights fees dispute could also have an impact, both by settling expectations for a major income source and potentially opening the door to some real cash flow in the relative near future. Really, it’s anyone’s guess just how much money the Lerner family will green-light to spend, but the means are likely there if the club feels it needs to inflate the payroll to add necessary pieces.
Regardless of what blend of assets — prospects and cold hard cash — is utilized, the organization will set out with a fairly obvious set of priorities. First and foremost, the Nats need to acquire a primary catcher and at least one quality starting pitcher. They’ll surely also look to boost their pitching depth while perhaps remaining open to acting opportunistically if a quality player can be had at a value. Finally, the organization will also no doubt consider the acquisition of a second baseman — even if it’s not a top priority — while exploring bench upgrades.
Rizzo has made clear his desire not just to get another piece behind the dish, but to make it a significant one. The position has been a black hole for the past two years, making an upgrade over the departing Matt Wieters a top priority. It’s already known that the Nats have tried for some time to pry J.T. Realmuto loose from the Marlins, but they haven’t been able to do so this point (despite reportedly dangling Robles). Perhaps the Pirates will show some willingness to discuss Francisco Cervelli, though that doesn’t seem particularly likely to result in a deal. Otherwise, the Nationals may need to go onto the open market to find a player worthy of regular action. Yasmani Grandal seems to be a good fit, with old friend Wilson Ramos also representing a possibility. If they succeed in adding one of those pieces, the Nats could go open the reserve job for competition among Spencer Kieboom, Pedro Severino, Raudy Read, and perhaps some minor-league veteran signee(s). If the organization can’t figure a way to a top-end catcher, it’d arguably be preferable to add two new players who could deliver good production in a timeshare.
There are quite a few more possibilities on the pitching market. With the steady Gio Gonzalez traded away and now a free agent, the Nats will likely push to land a hurler who’s capable of joining Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg at the top of the staff. Trade possibilities are somewhat murky, but it is certainly possible to imagine some matches — and it’s worth recalling that Rizzo has made use of this route for a fair number of quality complementary pieces in the past.
The Nats have had previous interest in Zack Greinke and might be willing to take over some salary, while seeing some appeal in the fact that his contract is only three years in length. Lefties James Paxton and Robbie Ray (the latter a Rizzo draftee) could be of interest. And there’s little doubt that the team would be in on the Indians’ excellent trio of tantalizing potential rotation trade pieces. (It’s fair to note, too, that Robles would be a perfect fit in Cleveland.) Free agency offers some possibilities, too. Patrick Corbin figures to be the top prize on the market, but there’s no reason the Nats wouldn’t at least check in. Fellow southpaw Dallas Keuchel is somewhat older, but that will also mean he likely won’t require so lengthy a commitment. That goes all the more for veteran J.A. Happ. Nathan Eovaldi, meanwhile, is going to draw a close look from all pitching-needy contenders.
Boosting the pitching depth beyond that will also be necessary, especially if the Nationals decide to move on from Roark. There has been no clear indication of that as of yet, but he has not been in top form and could either be traded (it’s possible a deal could involve another relatively expensive MLB asset coming back) or non-tendered so that his salary can be utilized in another manner. He’d otherwise round out a back-of-the-rotation mix that includes quite a lot of uncertainty. Joe Ross only just returned from Tommy John surgery while former first-rounder Erick Fedde has not yet established himself in the majors. Austin Voth, Jefry Rodriguez, and Kyle McGowin are also available for depth but hardly seem like clear options to take a rotation job out of camp. Last year, the Nats made a late move to add Jeremy Hellickson, then carefully avoided over-exposing him to opposing lineups. That worked out rather well and could be tried again with Hellickson or some other veteran hurler. Possibilities abound.
The bullpen has already been the recipient of two live new arms, as the Nationals dealt for Kyle Barraclough and inked an incentive-laden contract with Trevor Rosenthal. At their best, both are hard-to-hit flamethrowers who could combine to form a potent late-inning trio with excellent (albeit oft-injured) closer Sean Doolittle. A pessimist would add that both of these recently acquired hurlers also have trouble staying in the strike zone at times. Needless to say, neither is a sure thing.
Justin Miller, Koda Glover, and Wander Suero lead the remaining relief options from the right side, with the aforementioned back-of-the-rotation candidates also representing long relief candidates. There are several other righties on the 40-man, any of whom could conceivably make the Opening Day roster with a big spring — or be jettisoned beforehand if there’s a need for a 40-man spot. On the left side, Matt Grace is coming off of a strong season; Sammy Solis is not and is a non-tender candidate. If the Nats chase a higher-end reliever, it could make sense for it to be a lefty, though the team may also just wait and see whether an appealing opportunity presents itself. There certainly seems to be room for one or two more arms here, though it’s not a priority to the same extent as adding at catcher and in the rotation.
If there is another area to address, it’s at second base. The Nats say they’re happy to roll with a combination of Kendrick and Wilmer Difo, but that seems suboptimal and largely unnecessary given the glut of players available at the position in both trade and free agency. It’s at least theoretically possible the Nats could pursue Whit Merrifield of the Royals, who’s perhaps the most valuable potential trade target. Otherwise, there are a variety of veteran options. Roark and Taylor both represent MLB assets that could be moved to the right club in a deal for a second bagger (or, for that matter, a pitcher). It’s also plausible that the Nats could take on a bigger salary (e.g. Jason Kipnis, Dee Gordon) in a deal primarily targeted at acquiring a pitcher. Otherwise, free agents include Jed Lowrie, Brian Dozier, DJ LeMahieu, Josh Harrison, and old friends Asdrubal Cabrera and Daniel Murphy.
It’s possible the Nationals will look to add a regular at second. But the team could also prioritize a player who’d work in the mix there and elsewhere, with Kendrick spending time at second and in a corner outfield spot while Difo (or Adrian Sanchez or some outside acquisition) works as a true utility infielder. It’s interesting to consider whether the team could pursue a reunion with Murphy, who could also share time with Zimmerman at first. Switch-hitting Neil Walker is coming off of a rough season but could function in a similar capacity. Or poor-defending, sweet-swinging Marlins utilityman Derek Dietrich could make some sense. Otherwise, the club may again go searching for some big lefty pop to function in a bench role. Rizzo has employed numerous players of this ilk over the years, most recently Matt Adams. He’ll again be a possibility, with Justin Bour (recently waived by the Phillies), Lucas Duda, and Logan Morrison also looking to be options. Whether a roster spot is again utilized on such a piece may depend upon the more important machinations covered above.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Industry Notes: MASN, Wright, Mariners, Amateur
Over at The Athletic, Meghan Montemurro takes a fascinating look at how monster free agent contracts are negotiated. Subscribers will certainly want to read the entire piece for themselves, but there are a few notable takeaways that are worth discussing here. Notably, Montemurro’s efforts at canvassing prior signings reveals that heavy and early ownership involvement is a staple in major, long-term deals. Every front office/ownership dynamic is different, of course, but unsurprisingly the level of coordination required increases as the deal size goes up.
Ultimately, there’s no way to separate the higher-level business considerations from the hot stove — or, indeed, the game itself. With that in mind, here are some recent industry notes …
- The Nationals are hoping that a hearing later this week will represent a major step toward the resolution of their longstanding dispute with the Orioles over television rights fees, as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports. A three-person panel consisting of Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, Mariners CEO Kevin Mather, and Blue Jays CEO Mark Shapiro will hear the case. A prior arbitration proceeding way back in 2014 was invalidated by the courts owing to a finding of a conflict of interest in the Nats’ choice of counsel; that decision ultimately led back to this new MLB-constituted panel. As Janes explains, the arbitral proceeding will address a pair of five-year rights-fees periods for the jointly-owned (and Orioles-controlled) Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, with hundred of millions of dollars at stake. Even if the Nationals get the outcome they hope for of course, there’ll still be a possibility of further appeal, though the odds are long against upsetting a properly convened arb panel (which is why the original Baltimore victory, though procedural, was so notable). It’s not entirely whether the Nats’ immediate roster plans will be much affected, but Janes does conclude by noting that, “if the Nationals do get the revenue they are owed, their ability to sign elite free agents will improve, according to those familiar with the organization’s plans.”
- There’s less at stake for the division-rival Mets, but they too face an upcoming date of note for resolving a financial matter. As Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports, the wind-down of the David Wright contract is not quite as complete as was generally supposed. The Mets stand to receive coverage for three-quarters of the $27MM left on Wright’s deal, but there’s one wrinkle. While his playing career is now over, Wright remains on the club’s 40-man roster … even as the deadline for protecting players from the Rule 5 draft approaches (November 20th). Because he was activated late last year for a brief farewell, the first 59 games of the 2019 season are, by the terms of the insurance policy, not covered. And the club still has not worked out a settlement that will enable it to trim Wright from the roster (he otherwise must remain on it for the team to collect) and thereby open up a roster spot to utilize as the organization sees fit.
- Allegations arose recently of racist statements from key baseball operations figures with the Mariners — a worrying situation, unquestionably, the future course of which remains unclear. Regardless of how things shake out, writes Larry Stone of the Seattle Times, “the stain from this episode will cling to the organization for a long time.” Even as Stone rightly advises that it’s too soon to issue any final judgment on the specifics of the case, he explains that this matter coincides with other, preexisting issues with the organization’s management.
- MLB has now announced the formation of a new Prospect Development Pipeline League, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports recently reported. The idea here is to present a showcase opportunity each year for top high-school draft prospects. Such chances exist already, of course, but they are run by a private entity (Perfect Game) and may not be within the means of many prospects. This new PDP development will also allow team to access physical testing and data-tracking on the participating players. That’s something of a concern to the MLBPA, per Passan, though the union is said to be on board. As he puts it, “any fear is mitigated by the recognition that the youth system, as currently constituted, is broken.”
Six Players Decline Qualifying Offers
The seven free agents who were issued qualifying offers by their former teams must decide by 4pm CT today whether or not to accept. You can get the full rundown of how the qualifying offer system works here, but in brief — if a player takes the offer, they will return to their team on a one-year, $17.9MM contract for the 2019 season and can never again be issued a QO in any future trips to the free agent market. If a player rejects the offer, their former team will receive a compensatory draft pick should another club sign the player. (The signing team will also have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some funds from their international signing bonus pool.)
Most free agents reject the QO in search of a richer, more long-term contract, and this is expected to be the case for most (though not all) of this year’s qualifying offer class. The MLB Player’s Association has now announced all of these decisions, so they’re all official:
- A.J. Pollock will enter free agency after turning down the Diamondbacks‘ qualifying offer, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred. He’ll be the top center fielder available and should draw interest from a fair number of teams, though his market demand is not yet clear.
- Bryce Harper declined the Nationals‘ qualifying offer, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). That’s utterly unsurprising, as the superstar is lining up nine-figure offers as we speak.
- Craig Kimbrel is heading to the market rather than taking the one-year pact to stay with the Red Sox, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to tweet. The veteran closer is expected to command a much larger and lengthier contract in free agency.
- Patrick Corbin won’t be accepting the Diamondbacks‘ qualifying offer, as per Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link). No surprises with this decision, as Corbin is set to receive the biggest contract of any free agent pitcher this winter.
- Yasmani Grandal won’t accept the Dodgers‘ qualifying offer, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter). Even in the wake of another mediocre postseason performance, there was little doubt Grandal would turn down the QO, as he projects to earn a strong contract as the best catcher in the free agent market.
- Dallas Keuchel has rejected the Astros‘ qualifying offer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link). The ground-ball specialist and 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner will hit the open market, and it remains to be seen if a return to Houston could be in the cards. The Astros could also lose Charlie Morton in free agency, and Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
- Hyun-Jin Ryu has accepted the Dodgers‘ qualifying offer, as we explored in detail earlier today. Ryu becomes the sixth player to ever accept a QO, out of the 80 free agents who have been offered the deal over the last seven offseasons.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Greinke, Santana, Angels, Harper, Orioles, Machado
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests teams in need of pitching should take a second look at Diamondbacks ace Zack Greinke. With Arizona set to lose Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock to free agency, the Dbacks are, unwittingly maybe, staring down a period of transition. The $34.8MM the 35-year-old Greinke is owed yearly might seem like a bitter pill to swallow, but there are ways of diverting a portion of that cost to make the contract palatable. The Rangers and Diamondbacks, for instance, reportedly discussed a Greinke deal last offseason wherein the Rangers would have offset the AAV by sending Shin-Soo Choo the other way. Another strategy to offset that cost is straight cash. However it’s done, getting Greinke’s AAV down to the range of $20MM to $25MM might make him an attractive, shorter-term alternative to a free agent like Dallas Keuchel on a five-year pact, given that Greinke is now essentially on a three-year deal. So long as he’s priced appropriately, the Diamondbacks could move him. Whether or not they should depends on the cost. Be sure to check out the entire article here (subscription link), but for now, here are more snippets from Rosenthal on high-priced veterans from around the league…
- Unlike the Dbacks with Greinke, the Mariners are likely stuck with their veterans, given the sticker price of right-hander Felix Hernandez, third baseman Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano. In the context of the Greinke conversation, moving Cano almost seems plausible, as he’s only a year older than Greinke and owed almost $15MM less per season, but whereas Greinke isn’t much diminished from peak form, Cano is not long removed from an 80-game suspension, signed for two years longer and likely to move down the defensive hierarchy next season, from second base to either first or designated hitter.
- Rosenthal quotes a rival executive who says the Phillies are “shopping the hell” out of first baseman Carlos Santana. If they could move off the two years and more than $35MM owed to Santana, the Phils would love to move Rhys Hoskins back to first, since he recorded an unsightly -24 DRS in left field last season. Adam Dunn is the only left fielder to record less defensive runs saved in a single season since 2003, when Sports Info Solutions introduced the data. For Santana’s part, he’s been decent defensively at first over the last few seasons with the Indians and Phillies, even managing 1 DRS in 119 innings at third for the Phils last year. Still, he’s probably more of an asset to an American League team where he could cycle in and out of the designated hitter slot.
- The Angels, as well, are looking to shed salary in the form of Kole Calhoun or Blake Parker. Matt Shoemaker, after missing most of last season, is a non-tender candidate as well. The Angels are wary of dipping into their farm system to improve the major-league squad, as they’ve worked hard to rebuild their prospect pool. Still, they have a relatively desperate need for pitching and are, therefore, looking to shed salary where they can.
- Rosenthal quotes an anonymous agent with an interesting take on the Bryce Harper saga in Washington. The agent theorizes that GM Mike Rizzo is largely extricating himself from the process moving forward, instead moving aggressively to fill the Nationals’ other needs and leaving ownership to make the final verdict on Harper. Of course, creating a better baseball situation in Washington surely won’t hurt in the pursuit of Harper either.
- Also in Washington, the Nats could see a boost to their finances if their dispute with the Orioles over rights fees from the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) is settled, as expected, by MLB’s internal arbitration panel. An appeals process could still be at hand, but baseball officials hope both teams will live with whatever verdict comes down from the Revenue Sharing Definition Committee, which consists of Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, Mariners CEO Kevin Mather and Toronto CEO Mark Shapiro. In dispute is over $200MM in rights fees from 2012 to 2016. If the hearing goes as expected, the Nats will see an influx of cash that should grant them future payroll flexibility. Before you ask – no, the matter will not likely be settled in time to aid in the wooing of Harper.
- For the Orioles part in the above dispute, Rosenthal suggests it wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Orioles’ next front office hires to include someone in good standing with the MLB office. Along with the more explicit organizational issues, Baltimore has also apparently had a poor relationship with the league office as well. A portion of the discord stems from the above dispute with the Nationals over rights fees for the Orioles’ owned MASN, but there’s also suspicions that Camden Yards has somewhat unfairly been passed over for the All-Star game in recent years. Camden Yards was a forerunner for the way modern sports facility are built, but they have not hosted an All-Star game since its second year of existence in 1993. Other organizations have longer droughts in this regard, but the missed opportunity to honor the 25th anniversary of Camden Yards in 2017 still stings.
- As for the free agent market’s other big fish, Rosenthal quotes the Athletic’s Jayson Stark who hears that the Yankees are doing more than their due diligence to get first-hand accounts of Manny Machado‘s character. They likely won’t be disappointed by what they hear, as those close to Machado have nothing but good things to say, while recognizing the occasional on-field gaff.
Trade Deadline Retrospective: Harper, Astros, Garcia, Nats, Puig
Baseball fans everywhere were stripped of high-level trade deadline intrigue last season, as Ken Rosenthal details in a stunning report for The Athletic, when a trade that would have sent Bryce Harper to the Astros in exchange for a trio of prospects was nixed by Washington’s ownership group. The trade, said to have been agreed upon a day before the July 31 deadline, would have sent 2017 first-rounder J.B. Bukauskas to the Nats, as well as two other prospects, one of which was reportedly catcher Garrett Stubbs. Though Bukauskas faces questions about a third pitch, which could relegate him to eventual relief duty, and Stubbs has cooled after a blistering 2016 performance for Double-A Corpus Christi, the package was surely superior in value to the compensatory pick the Nationals will receive should Harper depart in free agency, which, as Rosenthal notes, will come after the fourth round in next year’s draft, by virtue of the club exceeding the luxury tax total in 2018. Houston, which received middling corner-outfield production from Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez last season, would certainly have benefitted from Harper’s presence in a lineup diminished by injuries to Carlos Correa and a substandard season from George Springer, though the departing asset cost would’ve assuredly been hefty for only two months of the 25-year-old superstar.
- Though no official reason was offered for the disapproval, Rosenthal speculates the Nationals owners may have been worried about damaging their relationship with Harper in the offseason to come. The club, after all, did offer Harper a reported $300MM over ten years on the last day of the 2018 season, and figures to further its aggression in efforts to sign the generational talent. During the August waiver period, the club also shot down a Dodger effort to acquire Harper, according to a report from the Los Angeles Times. It appears this offer, which reportedly included outfielder Yasiel Puig at its center, was nixed at the front office level, though it’s certainly plausible that previous ownership mandates were a significant factor in the team’s eventual refusal to depart with the star. Puig, certainly, would have been an intriguing return for just over a month’s use of Harper – the 27-year-old has had his share of on-field dustups, to be sure, but has remained a force at the plate: in an odd reverse split, the polarizing Cuban has put up a 142 wRC+ against right-handed pitching the last two seasons, good for 12th among qualifiers in baseball during that span, and is under team control through the 2019 season.
- After being stonewalled in their Harper pursuit, sources told Rosenthal that the Astros pivoted their attention (to, obviously, no avail) in the final hours to White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia, dangling right-handed pitching prospect Francis Martes, whose damaged right elbow was apparently of no concern to the Southsiders. Garcia, who’s been around replacement-level in five of his six major league seasons thus far, seemed an odd target for an Astro club not much in need of a right-handed boost – the 27-year-old, after all, posted a minuscule 1.4% BB rate in the season’s first half, and again sunk to a level of below-league-average production by the time his season ended in knee surgery in mid-September.