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Nationals To Promote Lucas Giolito

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The Nationals will promote right-hander Lucas Giolito to make tomorrow’s start against the division-rival Mets, manager Dusty Baker told reporters, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link). The promotion of the 21-year-old Giolito, who entered the season rated as the game’s No. 5 overall prospect according to Baseball America and currently rates as the No. 1 prospect in baseball according to updated prospect lists from MLB.com and ESPN, means that injured ace Stephen Strasburg will be replaced, for the time being, by arguably the most interesting arm in all of minor league baseball.

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MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel wrote about the possibility of a Giolito promotion earlier today, noting that it was likely to be either him or Triple-A righty Austin Voth replacing Strasburg for now. Giolito, who had Tommy John surgery the year he was drafted, is on an innings limit after throwing just 117 innings last year as his workload is slowly ramped up. Per Kerzel in his morning piece on Giolito and Voth, the Nats typically try to keep year-to-year innings increases to 20, so Giolito may not be allowed to go more than 140 or so innings this season. He’s already pitched 71 frames this year, working to a 3.17 ERA with 9.1 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9. And, as the Nats have demonstrated in the past with Strasburg, they’re not afraid to adhere to strict innings limits even in amid the spotlight of a postseason race.

As for how Giolito currently fits into the Nationals’ plans, the organization itself remains a bit unclear on that front. MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman tweets that Baker told the media it’s “impossible” to know how long Giolito will remain in the rotation, and the decision will be handled on a start-by-start basis. Certainly, one would imagine that the health of Strasburg plays into the decision. That piece of information remains an unknown, though, as Baker informed reporters that Strasburg underwent an MRI today, and the team is awaiting the results of the examination. Even if it proves to be a short-term absence for Strasburg, it’s plausible that a strong performance from Giolito could unseat the struggling Gio Gonzalez in the starting five.

Washington selected Giolito with the 16th overall pick in the 2012 draft. He’d previously been considered one of the favorites to go with the No. 1 overall pick that year, but an elbow injury caused his stock to drop. The injury concerns proved valid when Giolito underwent Tommy John surgery, but he’s made a strong recovery and blossomed into the top-shelf prospect that most scouts expected him to become even after that injury.

Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com write in their free scouting report on the 6’6″. 255-pound Giolito that he has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the minors thanks to an elite fastball, a power 12-to-6 curveball and a changeup that has steadily improved over his minor league career. ESPN’s Keith Law noted that some delivery tweaks in Spring Training actually set Giolito back a ways, but he appears to be back on track at this juncture. BA rated him only behind Corey Seager, Byron Buxton, Yoan Moncada and Julio Urias entering the season, noting that he had some room to improve the command of his secondary pitches as well as other facets of his game like holding runners and fielding his position. Across the board, Giolito is regarded as an elite talent and a player with ace upside if everything clicks at the big league level.

The timing of Giolito’s promotion means that even if he’s in the Majors to stay, he’ll avoid Super Two designation. The most service time he could accrue through season’s end would be 97 days, which would leave him well shy of a fourth trip through the arbitration process. If he is indeed a big leaguer from this point forth, Giolito won’t be eligible for free agency until following the 2022 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giolito, Voth Could Be Rotation Candidates

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With Stephen Strasburg’s recent placement on the disabled list, the Nationals need a starter for Tuesday, and Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com writes that it looks like Triple-A right-hander Austin Voth and Double-A righty Lucas Giolito (the game’s top prospect according to MLB.com and ESPN) are the likeliest candidates. Neither pitcher is on the 40-man, though Kerzel points out that the Nationals can create room simply by transferring Taylor Jordan, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day disabled list. Kerzel notes that Giolito could potentially force his way into the rotation in place of the struggling Gio Gonzalez even when Strasburg returns, but he also notes that Giolito is on an innings limit and figures to be capped just shy of 140 innings. He’s already tossed 71 frames this season, so turning to him for three full months of starts may not be an option. Kerzel runs down the cases for and against a Giolito promotion, and the analysis is well worth a look for Nats fans or prospect chasers in fantasy leagues.

Nationals Place Stephen Strasburg On 15-Day DL With Upper Back Strain

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The Nationals have announced that ace Stephen Strasburg has been placed on the 15-day DL (retroactive to June 16) with an upper back strain.  A corresponding move will be made on Monday to fill Strasburg’s 25-man roster spot.

[Related: Updated Nationals depth chart at Roster Resource]

Strasburg was scratched from his last two starts due to the back problem, and given the backdate of his DL assignment, it’s possible he might not miss much more action.  Still, the back strain is the latest in a rather lengthy series of nagging muscle injuries that have bothered Strasburg throughout his career, as he has missed time with oblique and neck strains in the past.  (To say nothing, of course, of his Tommy John surgery in 2010.)

Tanner Roark replaced Strasburg in today’s scheduled start since Roark was on regular rest anyways, though Washington will need a pitching staff replacement later this week.  Swingman Yusmeiro Petit is one option, and minor league arms Lucas Giolito and Austin Voth (as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post notes) both have scheduled starts for Monday and Tuesday, respectively.  However, there isn’t any sign that the Nats could call up either, Janes says.  Of the two, Voth (at Triple-A) could be more directly ready than Giolito (Double-A), as Janes tweets that the Nationals want Giolito to polish his command before exposing the top prospect to Major League batters.

Strasburg already generated headlines this season by signing a seven-year, $175MM extension to remain in D.C., and he has been pitching like an ace worthy of such a contract.  Strasburg has a 2.90 ERA, 11.4 K/9 and 4.92 K/BB rate over 93 innings, also notching a perfect 10-0 record over 14 starts.  An extended absence is unquestionably a big loss for Washington, though the Nats have enjoyed strong pitching overall from Max Scherzer, Joe Ross, Gio Gonzalez and Roark.

NL East Notes: Reyes, Mets, Ramos, Marlins

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The Mets are beginning to “warm up” to the idea of a reunion with Jose Reyes, according to Newsday’s David Lennon. While Lennon cautions that those familiar with the team’s thinking won’t characterize it as any sort of sure thing, the team has begun to discuss the idea more seriously over the past several days, per Lennon. While Reyes has privately voiced a willingness to play third base if it means returning to Queens, Lennon hears that the Mets have also considered sliding Neil Walker to the hot corner when discussing various scenarios, which could open second base for Reyes. The Mets won’t be able to make anything happen on the Reyes front until this weekend, as he still needs to be placed on release waivers and clear (a 48-hour process) before he’s eligible to sign else where.

Here’s more from the National League East:

  • While Reyes is one infield option for the Mets, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron opines that a trade for Danny Valencia is the perfect fit for New York. In perusing the teams that are likely to emerge as sellers this summer, Cameron notes that there’s a lack of impact bats available that can handle third base. Valencia is the exception, he writes, noting that the former platoon weapon has emerged as a legitimate threat to right-handed pitching over the past season-plus. Indeed, Valencia is hitting .304/.355/.528 across his past 155 contests, and his $3.2MM salary is eminently affordable. Cameron’s assessment is sound, and I’ll add to his argument that the remainder of Valencia’s relatively modest salary is less than the roughly $5.5MM the Mets stand to recoup from the insurance policy on Wright’s contract. Valencia is controllable through 2017 as well, and as Cameron points out, he’d serve as a safety net at third base in the event that Wright is again unable to take the field for the majority of the 2017 campaign.
  • Catcher Wilson Ramos has been a force for the Nationals this year, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post explores what his breakout means for the organization. “It hasn’t changed a lot for me,” said GM Mike Rizzo. “Since we traded for him, we’ve always seen the upside. We knew he was as good an offensive catcher as there is in the game.” The Nats certainly do not appear to have an everyday option waiting in the wings at the position, so it’s not hard to see the rationale for bringing back the pending free agent. Rizzo suggested that an extension could make sense, even at this point of the season, though he declined to spill any details. “I don’t think it’s ever too late or too early to think about [an extension],” he said. “We’ve got a plan in place for all the guys we have. He’s a guy we see as a long-term asset for us. Those are conversations we keep internal.”
  • Earlier this week FOX’s Jon Morosi reported that the Marlins have interest in Rays righty Jake Odorizzi, and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald hears the same. However, Jackson also notes that the Marlins are aware that their farm system isn’t teeming with the types of players that it would take to net a controllable arm such as Odorizzi. Prior to the season, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law both rated the Marlins’ farm system 29th among all 30 teams, with only the Angels trailing them. That, paired with the team’s perennially low payroll, makes the Marlins’ search for rotation help a bit more difficult than it might be for most clubs. Jackson also adds that the Marlins figure to skip one more Jose Fernandez start later this season in an effort to conserve some of his innings for a potential postseason berth.

2017 Vesting Options Update

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It’s been a little more than a month since we last checked in on the vesting options from around the league. Here’s where this year’s collection of players with vesting options for the following season stand…

  • Coco Crisp ($13MM option vests at 550 plate appearances or 130 games played in 2016): Crisp was hitting .234/.304/.405 at the time of my initial look at this group of players, but his bat has gone in the tank since that time. The 36-year-old switch-hitter has batted just .212/.235/.343 in 102 plate appearances since that time, but he’s continued to see playing time in part due to injuries elsewhere on the roster (Josh Reddick, Mark Canha). Crisp is still on pace to come in a bit shy of that 550 PA mark, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a reduced role upon Reddick’s return to health, as the A’s probably don’t love the idea of paying him $13MM for his age-37 campaign when he’s struggling to this level in 2016.
  • Matt Holliday ($17MM option vests with Top 10 finish in MVP voting): Holliday is having a strong season, as he’s proven that the power outage he experienced last season was more anomaly than a portent for significant decline. However, he’s hitting .257/.332/.478 — numbers that help the Cardinals but won’t make him a factor in MVP voting barring a mammoth finish to the 2016 season.
  • Chris Iannetta ($6MM option vests with 100 games started in 2016): Iannetta has already started 55 games for the Mariners this season, making it seem very likely that he’ll be around in Seattle for the 2017 campaign as well. He hasn’t set the world on fire in his first year with the Mariners, but he’s hitting .237/.337/.395, which translates to an OPS+ of 104 and a wRC+ of 105. (Put another way: he’s been about four to five percent above the league-average hitter after adjusting for his pitcher-friendly home park.)
  • Yusmeiro Petit ($3MM option vests with 80 innings pitched in 2016): At last check, Petit was on pace to see his option vest, but he’s been used very sparingly in the month of June, totaling just six innings thus far after combining for 26 innings in April and May. Given his status as a multi-inning reliever, he could pick up some additional innings in a hurry, but as it stands, he’s behind pace to see that payday locked in automatically. Of course, he’s also posted a 2.81 ERA in those 32 innings, so the Nats may simply pick up his option even if it doesn’t automatically trigger. To this point, he’s pitched well enough that it seems like a fairly easy call.
  • CC Sabathia ($25MM option vests if he does not end season on DL with shoulder injury or miss 45+ games in 2016 due to shoulder injury): Sabathia’s option seems likely to vest, as his shoulder has remained healthy this season. However, what once looked like an egregious overpay can perhaps be seen in a different light for the time being. While few would argue that the Yankees shouldn’t mind paying Sabathia that sum in 2017, his contract looks considerably better than it did last year. The former Cy Young winner has made 11 starts this season and has posted a resurgent 2.20 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. Sabathia has benefited from some good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball ratio and strand rate, but this is the best he’s looked since 2012.
  • Kurt Suzuki ($6MM option vests with 485 plate appearances in 2016): Suzuki’s overall production this season has been well below average, but since the last of these updates he’s batting a considerably improved .268/.297/.394 with a pair of homers in 74 PAs. That’s a bit better than the league-average catcher, but the Twins still don’t seem inclined to allow his option to vest. Suzuki has totaled just 158 plate appearances this season even with John Ryan Murphy, his projected replacement, floundering in the Majors and getting optioned to Triple-A (where his struggles have continued). Journeyman Juan Centeno is getting some time behind the dish as well (61 PAs) for the Twins as well. It seems unlikely that Minnesota will allow Suzuki to average 3.5 PAs per game over the final 93 contests after he’s averaged just 2.3 per game thus far.

As noted in the original update, both Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn had vesting options for the 2017 season as well, but those options were negated when each was released from the four-year contracts they initially signed with the Indians.

5 Contenders Interested In Yankees’ Chapman, Miller

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The 34-34 Yankees remain in the thick of the playoff race in the American League, where they sit 5.5 games back of the AL East-leading Orioles and 3.5 games out of a Wild Card position. If the Yankees fall off prior to the Aug. 1 trade deadline and decide to shop elite relievers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller, they’ll garner interest from the Cubs, Nationals, Giants, Dodgers and Rangers, among other potential suitors, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link).

New York could trade both and find a complement to Dellin Betances through free agency, according to Rosenthal, who notes that Chapman, the Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen and the Pirates’ Mark Melancon – a former Yankee – are all on expiring contracts. Of those three, the only one who’s likely to cost a first-round pick to sign is Jansen, who’s a good bet to receive a qualifying offer (worth roughly $16MM) from Los Angeles.

Miller’s connection to the Cubs, Nationals and Giants is nothing new, of course, with the same holding true for Chapman in regards to Chicago and Washington. The Cubs scouted Yankees relievers last week, and multiple reports this month have linked the Nationals to Chapman and Miller. The Giants, meanwhile, were reportedly mulling going after Miller as of two weeks ago. The Dodgers nearly acquired Chapman from the Reds over the winter, but they moved on amid the 28-year-old’s domestic violence issues and pondered pursuing Miller, whom the Yankees ultimately retained.

The Dodgers already rank an outstanding fourth in bullpen ERA (3.12) and ninth in K/BB (2.88), though adding Chapman or Miller to the likes of Jansen, Joe Blanton and Adam Liberatore would improve their odds of catching the NL West-leading Giants, whom they’re 6.5 games behind, or at least keeping pace in the Wild Card hunt.

Despite San Francisco’s success, its bullpen has been mediocre on the whole and lacks anyone in the stratosphere of Chapman or Miller. It helps that either of those two would bring variety to a unit whose best options – Santiago Casilla, Hunter Strickland, Cory Gearrin and Derek Law – are all right-handed.

The Cubs, who lead the majors with a 46-20 record, are all but devoid of weaknesses. They lack a top-end lefty reliever to complement shutdown righties Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon, however, which is why they’re interested in the Yankees’ tandem. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein acknowledged Friday that relievers are on the team’s radar, saying he “would love” to pick up another quality bullpen arm.

Nationals relievers are eighth in the league in both ERA (3.38) and K/BB ratio (2.9), which has helped the team gain a six-game advantage in the NL East, but closer Jonathan Papelbon is on the disabled list with a right intercostal strain and was merely good before succumbing to injury. There’s also risk with fill-in closer Shawn Kelley – while he has fared brilliantly this season, the 32-year-old is a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient.

Although they’re atop the AL with a 44-25 mark, Rangers relievers are just 25th in ERA (4.84) and a below-average 19th in K/BB (2.38). Sam Dyson, Jake Diekman and Matt Bush are all thriving, but team president and GM Jon Daniels said Saturday that the Rangers would consider looking for outside bullpen help.

Acquiring either Chapman or Miller would clearly be a boon to any of these World Series-contending clubs, though the latter of the two figures to command a heftier return. Not only is Miller locked up through 2018 at a reasonable $9MM salary, but he doesn’t bring any of Chapman’s off-the-field baggage and has been the better of the tandem this season. If shopped, both should require notable young talent coming back, and it’s worth pointing out that ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider required) placed the Dodgers second, the Cubs fourth, the Rangers ninth, the Nationals 15th and the Giants 21st in his preseason farm system rankings.

Nationals Monitoring Joe Ross' Workload

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  • The Nationals are keeping a watchful eye on the amount of innings and pitches 23-year-old right-hander Joe Ross’ racks up, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post details. Ross has 77 2/3 innings under his belt this year, which is the second fewest among Nats starters. He’s also the only member of their rotation who’s averaging fewer than 100 pitches per start, coming in at 94. Ross amassed 153 2/3 innings between the majors and minors in 2015, and while pitchers often push 200 frames the season after totaling in the 150 range, Janes notes that the Nationals try to avoid that type of one-year jump when dealing with their youngsters. There’s no actual innings limit in place, however, relays Janes (Twitter link). ““His innings are building up, as you can notice, he has the least amount of innings of our starters. We want to take him all the way through September, and hopefully into October,” manager Dusty Baker said of Ross, who has posted a 3.13 ERA, 7.63 K/9 and 2.78 BB/9 this season.

Could Nationals Shop Trea Turner For Pen Arm?

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  • Heyman also floats the idea that the Nationals could dangle top position player prospect Trea Turner in trade talks this summer. He wonders whether he could be the chip that lands a top-end reliever, citing Yankees hurler Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. From my perspective, that would be rather surprising: Turner has shown himself ready for a full crack at the big leagues and is widely considered one of the game’s twenty best prospects. Even if the Nats don’t make him the starter in 2016, he’s a critical part of the team’s middle infield depth right now and an important future piece.

Nationals Place Jonathan Papelbon On Disabled List

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2:30pm: Baker told reporters, including the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes (Twitter link), that Papelbon initially incurred the injury while warming up on Sunday. There’s no set timetable for his return right now, nor do the Nats have a designated closer to step into Papelbon’s place. Baker noted that he likes Shawn Kelley quite a bit (via MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman, on Twitter) but noted that the team is being careful with Kelley’s arm due to the fact that he has twice undergone Tommy John surgery in his career.

1:17pm: The Nationals have placed right-hander Jonathan Papelbon on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to yesterday, with a strained right intercostal muscle, per a team announcement. Right-hander Matt Belisle has been activated from his rehab assignment to take Papelbon’s spot on the roster. Remarkably, MLB.com’s Jamal Collier points out that this will be the first DL stint of Papelbon’s Major League career (Twitter link).

The Nats neglected to lit a specific timeline for Papelbon’s return, though Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets that skipper Dusty Baker will chat with the media within the next hour, at which point further information should be available. It’s not immediately clear who will inherit the ninth inning during Papelbon’s absence, although Shawn Kelley has been far and away the team’s best short-stint reliever this season, having pitched to a 2.70 ERA with 13.1 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in 23 1/3 innings. Those numbers trump even Papelbon, who currently is sporting a 3.28 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in a similar workload of 24 2/3 innings. Other considerations could be Felipe Rivero and Blake Treinen, though Rivero has struggled quite a bit of late and is sporting an ERA north of 5.00 at the moment.

[Related: Updated Washington Nationals depth chart]

While there’s no guarantee as to how long Papelbon will be out, the injury raises further questions about the back end of the club’s bullpen. It’s no secret that Papelbon’s peripheral stats have declined in recent seasons; his current strikeout rate, average fastball velocity (90.7 mph) and swinging-strike rate (9.5 percent) are each career-lows, and the aforementioned 2.9 BB/9 rate is the highest it’s been since 2010. Papelbon’s ERA remains serviceable, to be sure, but metrics like xFIP (4.74) and SIERA (4.23) paint a far less-favorable picture.

The Nationals have been oft-connected to a shutdown reliever on the trade market, with both Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller mentioned as targets the Nats hope will become available. The injury to Papelbon only figures to increase the amount of chatter surrounding their hunt for a formidable ’pen arm — especially if he is to expected to miss more than the minimum 15-day requirement. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out last week in running down some of the top trade candidates from around the league, there figures to be a large number of relievers available this summer, whereas many other positions will be considerably more difficult to fill.

Nationals Agree To Terms With Comp Pick Carter Kieboom

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The Nationals have agreed to terms with their first selection from this year’s amateur draft, high school shortstop Carter Kieboom, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson first reported. Bonus terms weren’t reported.

He is the younger brother of Spencer Kieboom, a 25-year-old catching prospect who’s also in the Washington system. The younger Kieboom followed his brother to Marrietta, Georgia’s Walton High School. And he, too, committed to Clemson University, but won’t join him in attending.

It’s an open question whether Kieboom can stick at shortstop for the long run, though expectations are that he’d be a quality defender at third regardless. And his bat could be good enough to carry him at the corner infield, with observers giving him high marks for instincts, bat speed, coordination, and approach at the plate.

In the aggregate, ESPN.com’s Keith Law rates Kieboom as one of the thirty best draft-eligible prospects. Other outlets aren’t quite as enamored, with Baseball America placing him 44th and MLB.com giving him #45 billing.

The Nationals have a $2.066MM allocation for the 28th overall slot, which was used to take Kieboom. Washington also had the next choice, which it used on University of Florida righty Dane Dunnning, who is still pitching in the NCAA tournament.

The club didn’t have much of a need for cost savings, as it selected just one high-schooler in the first ten rounds: southpaw Jesus Luzardo, who was plucked in the third round. The Nats gave up their first-round selection by signing Daniel Murphy.

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