Nationals Sign Nash Walters To Minors Deal
The Nationals added to their bullpen depth earlier this week, signing right-hander Nash Walters to a minor league deal (h/t to TalkNats). Walters has been assigned to club’s Double-A affiliate in Harrisburg.
Originally drafted in the third round of the 2015 draft by the Brewers, Walters was initially slowed in his development by Tommy John surgery in 2017 and 2020’s cancelled minor league season. He made his full-season debut in 2021 and quickly advanced through the minor leagues, reaching Triple-A with the Brewers in 2022. Walters was shipped to Anaheim in a cash deal with the Angels that September and made his big league debut in the club’s final game of 2022 against the A’s. He recorded a single out while allowing a hit and a walk in his big league debut.
Walters was non-tendered by the club last November, and while he initially re-signed on a minor league deal the following month, the Angels released him just before Opening Day. That led Walters to sign on with the White Sox on a minor league deal towards the end of April. He struggled considerably for Chicago in the minors, with a brutal 9.64 ERA in 28 innings of work. While Walters was struggling badly in terms of run prevention results, his strong 31.9% strikeout rate seemingly caught the interest of Nationals after the White Sox released him earlier this month.
Now in his fourth organization of the past calendar year, Walters will look to get his run prevention numbers in line with his tantalizing stuff at the Double-A level for the Nationals. If he manages to do so, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Walters contribute at the big league level later this season, particularly if the coming trade deadline on August 1 opens up space in the Nationals’ bullpen.
Nationals, #2 Overall Pick Dylan Crews Agree To Terms
The Nationals have agreed to terms with second overall pick Dylan Crews, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The Talk Nats blog suggested earlier this week the framework of a deal was in place, pending a physical (on Twitter). The specific signing bonus is unclear, though Heyman indicates it’ll come in around $9MM.
That’s right in line with the selection’s $8.99MM slot value. It’s very likely that’ll go down as the second-highest bonus in this year’s class. Paul Skenes landed a record $9.2MM upon going first overall to the Pirates. The Skenes/Crews duo became the first pair of college teammates to ever go 1-2 in the MLB draft.
Crews, a right-handed hitting outfielder, has been regarded as a top amateur talent going back to high school. He went to LSU after teams declined to meet his bonus demands in the 2020 draft. Crews had a monster career for the Tigers, posting an OPS north of 1.100 in all three seasons while playing in college baseball’s top conference.
Regarded as a potential first overall pick throughout the 2023 season, Crews more than met expectations. He raked a .426/.567/.713 clip over 344 plate appearances as a junior. He connected on 18 home runs, walked at an elite 20.6% clip and kept his strikeouts to a 13.4% rate. Crews won the Golden Spikes Award as college baseball’s top performer and helped LSU to a national championship.
Going into the draft, he was still very much in the running for the first pick. Each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, and MLB Pipeline rated Crews the #1 or #2 player in the class. He topped the pre-draft rankings at BA and The Athletic. Pittsburgh ultimately elected for the potential top-of-the-rotation starter in Skenes. Washington nabbed Crews at #2.
The 6’1″ outfielder is credited with a potential plus hit/power combination. He’s likely to begin his career in center field. Evaluators suggest he might eventually be bumped to right field but should be an above-average to plus corner outfielder if that happens. It’s difficult to find fault with much in his profile. Crews would likely have gone first overall in most draft classes, but Skenes is widely regarded as the best college pitching prospect in more than a decade.
Baseball America slots Crews as the sport’s #3 overall prospect behind Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourio. He’s one slot ahead of fellow Washington outfielder James Wood (and two places above Skenes). The Nats will hope for Crews and Wood to anchor their outfields of the future once they pull out of their ongoing rebuild.
Nationals Select Rico Garcia
3:55pm: The Nationals have now made it official, announcing Garcia’s selection. In corresponding moves, right-hander Paolo Espino was placed on the 15-day injured list with a flexor strain of his fourth right finger while catcher Israel Pineda was transferred to the 60-day IL. The move for Pineda is simply a formality as he’s already been on the IL all year, much longer than 60 days, meaning he can be reinstated at any point.
8:55am: The Nationals will select the contract of right-hander Rico Garcia from Triple-A Rochester, MLBTR has confirmed. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reported this morning that the move was expected to be made today. They’ll need a 40-man roster move to make that official. It’s possible there will be other additions, as Dougherty suggests the team is in a scramble following yesterday’s blowout loss to the Cubs.
The 29-year-old Garcia joined the Nats on a minor league deal just last week after rejecting an outright from the A’s, who’d designated him for assignment. He was tagged for eight runs in 8 2/3 innings during his brief time with Oakland, but Garcia has pitched well in Triple-A this year and continued that trend with the Nats. He’s tossed 2 1/3 shutout frames in Rochester, punching out three hitters along the way.
That drops Garcia to a 2.93 ERA in 27 2/3 innings this season. Dating back to last year, the righty has a 2.60 ERA with a strikeout rate north of 29% against a 13% walk rate in 62 1/3 Triple-A innings. The latter of those two rates is obviously a concern, but Garcia’s results at the top minor league level have been strong nonetheless.
The Nats will be Garcia’s fifth big league team. In addition to the A’s, he’s spent time with the Orioles, Giants and Rockies but never received a lengthy look at the MLB level. He’s tossed just 32 2/3 innings across parts of four seasons, recording a composite 6.29 ERA in those scattered opportunities.
Washington has ample uncertainty in the bullpen, particularly with Hunter Harvey and Carl Edwards Jr. on the injured list at the moment. The trio of Amos Willingham, Paolo Espino and Jose Ferrer was tagged for 14 run in relief of Patrick Corbin yesterday. Kyle Finnegan and Mason Thompson are the lone established relievers in the Nats’ bullpen at the moment, and the former is a trade candidate, given that he’s into his arbitration years and only has two years of club control remaining beyond the current season.
Notable Draft Signings: 7/17/23
The Rangers, Rockies, Tigers, A’s and Orioles all agreed to $4MM+ bonuses with their first round draftees this afternoon. We’ll round up the other $2MM+ signings from Monday (scouting reports from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic):
- The Giants are signing 16th overall pick Bryce Eldridge to a $3.9975MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (Twitter links). That’s a bit below the selection’s $4.33MM slot value. Eldridge, a two-way player from a Virginia high school, ranked between 16th and 23rd on the referenced pre-draft lists. Listed at 6’7″, he’s generally regarded as a more talented power-hitting first base/corner outfield prospect than as a pitcher, though evaluators suggest he could’ve been a top-two round selection were he solely on the mound. He’s expected to try playing both ways to begin his professional career. The lefty hitter/righty thrower had been committed to Alabama. San Francisco also signed 52nd pick Walker Martin for an overslot $2.9975MM bonus. An Arkansas commit, Martin is a power-hitting infielder from a Colorado high school.
- The Yankees announced they’ve signed first rounder George Lombard Jr. According to Callis, the Florida high schooler receives a $3.3MM bonus that beats the $3.07MM slot value of the 26th selection (Twitter link). A right-handed hitting infielder and son of the former major leaguer who currently serves as Tigers’ bench coach, Lombard Jr. had been committed to Vanderbilt. Listed at 6’3″, he’s viewed as a well-rounded and instinctual player who could hit for average and power. Evaluators generally had him as a back of the first-round prospect with some question about whether he’ll outgrow shortstop.
- The Mariners are in agreement with 29th pick Johnny Farmelo on a $3.2MM bonus, reports Daniel Kramer of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s the selection Seattle received under the Prospect Promotion Incentive after Julio Rodríguez won the 2022 Rookie of the Year. Farmelo, a left-handed hitting outfielder out of a Virginia high school, tops the $2.8MM slot value of the selection. Generally regarded as a comp round or early second round talent, he’s a plus runner who could play center field and has some power projection in a 6’2″ frame. Farmelo was a Virginia commit.
- The Brewers are signing 18th pick Brock Wilken for $3.15MM, Callis reports (on Twitter). That’s quite a bit below the $4.02MM slot value for the college infielder. Wilken, a Wake Forest product, is one of the better offensive prospects in the college class. Evaluators suggest he’s a power over contact player but could be a middle-of-the-order presence. They’re divided on whether the 6’4″ infielder will be athletic enough to stick at the hot corner or should move to first base down the line. The right-handed hitter put up a monster .345/.506/.807 showing during his draft year in Winston-Salem. Milwaukee also signed 33rd pick Josh Knoth for $2MM, per Callis (on Twitter). A high school righty from New York, Knoth is credited with mid-90s velocity and two impressive breaking pitches.
- The Blue Jays agreed to a $3MM bonus with first round pick Arjun Nimmala, according to Callis (Twitter link). That’s below the $3.75MM slot value of the 20th selection. Nimmala, a high school infielder out of Florida, placed in the top 17 on each of the aforementioned rankings. The 6’1″ infielder is credited with plus power projection and a good chance to stick at shortstop. An aggressive approach and elevated swing-and-miss are the primary questions in his profile, though he’s one of the youngest players in the class and regarded as a strong upside play. Nimmala had been committed to Florida State.
- The A’s went well above slot for third-rounder Steven Echavarria, Callis reports (Twitter links). He lands $3MM, almost $2MM north of the slot value for the 73rd pick. A high school right-hander from New Jersey, he’d been committed to Florida. He has a mid-90s fastball and potential plus curveball. Oakland also signed 39th selection Myles Naylor for the $2.025MM slot value. The Canadian infielder (younger brother of the Guardians’ Naylor brothers) is a bat-first third baseman who’d been slated to attend Texas Tech.
- The Nationals handed out a pair of $2.6MM bonuses, per reports from Callis and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (Twitter links). Miami infielder Yohandy Morales went 40th overall after hitting .408/.475/.713 during his final season in the ACC. He’s a power-hitting third baseman. High school righty Travis Sykora gets a well above slot bonus as a third round draftee. A Texas commit, Sykora is a 6’6″ hurler who can get into the triple digits and was regarded as a possible top 40 talent in the class.
- Infielder Sammy Stafura signed for $2.4975MM with the Reds, reports Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer (on Twitter). That’s above slot for the New York high school infielder, a Clemson commit. Stafura was viewed as a potential first-round talent based on his athleticism and bat speed.
Nationals Claim Roddery Muñoz From Braves
The Nationals announced that they have claimed right-hander Roddery Muñoz off waivers from the Braves and optioned him to Triple-A Rochester. Atlanta designated him for assignment last week. The Nationals already had a vacancy on their 40-man roster so no corresponding move will be required.
Muñoz, 23, was an international signing of Atlanta out of the Dominican Republic in 2018 and worked primarily as a starter in subsequent seasons. In 2022, he tossed 100 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A. His 4.66 earned run average in that time wasn’t especially eye-opening, but he struck out 26.9% of batters faced while walking 9.5%.
Atlanta evidently liked what they saw enough that they didn’t want Muñoz to get away in the Rule 5 draft and thus added him to their 40-man roster in November. He’s been transitioned into more of a relief role this year, tossing 39 1/3 innings over 22 appearances. He has a 3.89 ERA for the year across multiple levels, striking out 23.4% of opponents but walking 15.2% of them.
Those control issues seemingly led to Muñoz losing his roster spot in Atlanta, but he’s a sensible claim for the Nationals since they are rebuilding and can be patient with his development. He’s still young, has a full slate of options and has yet to reach the big leagues. If he can rein in his arsenal, he could be a long-term fit for the Nats. He was recently ranked Atlanta’s #22 prospect by Baseball America and #8 by FanGraphs.
Nationals “More Than Likely” To Place Hunter Harvey On 15-Day Injured List
Hunter Harvey felt soreness in his right triceps following his outing on Saturday, and is set to undergo an MRI today to fully access any damage. Nationals manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that “more than likely,” Harvey will be headed to the 15-day injured list since “I’d rather be very careful, very cautious with him.” X-rays were “clean” on Harvey’s arm yesterday, so that it at least some positive news that the right-hander has avoided another serious injury.
However, the Nats’ caution is certainly understandable given the potential seriousness of any triceps or elbow-related injury, as well as Harvey’s own personal injury history. Most prominently, Harvey underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2016, and his career has been repeatedly stalled by various health issues. After Washington claimed him off waivers from the Giants in March 2022, Harvey made four appearances for the Nats before missing close to three months with a right pronator strain.
When Harvey has been able to pitch, he has been quite effective over his two seasons with the Nationals. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, the righty has a 2.82 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, and a 7.6% walk rate over 79 2/3 relief innings. Harvey has also racked up nine saves since taking over the closer’s job from Kyle Finnegan, further enhancing both his value to the Nats and his potential worth as a deadline trade chip.
Because of the stop-and-start nature of Harvey’s injury-hampered career, he is only in his first year of arbitration eligibility, so Washington still holds team control over his services through the 2025 season. This means that Harvey wasn’t a surefire candidate to be moved at the deadline, but with the Nationals still in rebuild mode, there was certainly an argument to be made for D.C. to sell high on Harvey. Unfortunately, it now doesn’t seem that Harvey will even be back from the IL before the August 1 deadline, unless a clean MRI and no lingering soreness results in a minimum 15-day absence. Even then, it’s hard to imagine that a trade suitor would be willing to give up any sort of decent return without some clear evidence that Harvey is healthy.
Tyler Danish Opts Out Of Nationals Contract
Tyler Danish has opted out of his minor league deal with the Nationals, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link). Danish signed with Washington at the start of May, after being released from a previous minors contract with the Yankees at the end of Spring Training.
Over 29 relief innings with Triple-A Rochester, Danish posted a 3.72 ERA, with a 15.3% strikeout rate and a 11.5% walk rate. The low strikeout rate isn’t necessarily a surprise since Danish is a grounder specialist (his groundball rate is a whopping 58.7% this year), but his high walk rate continues the control problems that have emerged over his last two seasons at the minor league level. The Nationals apparently hadn’t seen enough to add Danish to their active roster, or to make room for him on the 40-man.
The 28-year-old right-hander will now head back to the open market once more, looking for another path back to the big leagues. Danish appeared in parts of the 2016-18 seasons with the White Sox (for 13 total innings) before resurfacing back in the majors with the Red Sox in 2022, posting a 5.13 ERA over 40 1/3 frames.
Injury Notes: Edman, Candelario, Gausman, Sborz
Tommy Edman was placed on the Cardinals‘ 10-day injured list on July 7, as the multi-positional regular was suffering from inflammation in right wrist. A clean MRI provided some hope that Edman could be back soon after the All-Star break, but that doesn’t look like it will be the case, as manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com) that Edman received an injection in his wrist. As a result, Marmol said it will be “several more days” before Edman can return.
Rotating between shortstop, second base, center field, and right field this season, Edman’s versatility and switch-hitting bat have been very helpful to St. Louis, even if his production at the plate has dropped off. Edman had a 108 wRC+ over 630 plate appearances in 2022, but he had only a 91 wRC+ (and a .237/.303/.391 slash line) over 307 PA thus far in 2023. It could be that the move to the outfield is hurting Edman’s hitting, as his offense has badly tailed off since the Cardinals started regularly starting him in center field in late May. With St. Louis looking like probable sellers at the deadline, it remains to be seen how Edman might fit into what could be a remodeled mix around the diamond, though the first order of business for the 28-year-old is just to get healthy. To be clear, there hasn’t been much trade buzz around Edman himself, and his lingering injury would certainly seem like a further obstacle to any sort of deal.
More injury updates from around baseball…
- Jeimer Candelario is a much clearer trade candidate as the deadline approaches, but the Nationals third baseman got an injury scare of his own yesterday when he injured his thumb during a pregame fielding drill. Manager Davey Martinez described the injury as a bone bruise, and Candelario tried to play through the pain but had to leave the game after his first at-bat. Candelario is day to day for now, as Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that the infielder was hoping to be ready as soon as tonight’s game with the Cardinals. While there’s no truly good time for an injury, the timing is particularly bad for Candelario and the Nats with the deadline approaching. Even a minimal IL stint will likely impact the club’s chances of maximizing value in a trade, or it could scuttle the chances of a deal altogether.
- Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman was scratched from his scheduled start today due to soreness in his left side, with Chris Bassitt instead taking the hill against the Diamondbacks. Jays manager John Schneider told The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath (Twitter links) and other reporters that Gausman first felt the discomfort after his last start before the All-Star break, but an MRI didn’t reveal any injury. As such, Gausman might be able to return as early as Tuesday when the Blue Jays begin a series with the Padres. It’s no surprise that Toronto is being cautious with their ace, as a healthy Gausman (who leads all MLB pitchers with 4.0 fWAR) is critical to the Jays’ chances of reaching the postseason.
- The Rangers placed right-hander Josh Sborz on the 15-day injured list due to right biceps tendinitis, with a backdated placement date of July 12. Left-hander John King was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move. Sborz has been rocked for nine earned runs over his last 9 1/3 innings (four appearances) of work, spoiling what had been a quietly solid season for the righty in the Texas bullpen. In his previous 34 1/3 innings, Sborz had posted a 2.62 ERA while limiting opposing batters to a .460 OPS. Texas has already made an early trade for Aroldis Chapman in an attempt to shore up its inconsistent bullpen, and more relief help might be needed by the deadline if Sborz will now miss a significant amount of time.
Nationals, Rico Garcia Agree To Minor League Deal
The Nationals have agreed to a minor league deal with right-handed reliever Rico Garcia, reports Jessica Kleinschmidt. The Gaeta Sports client is headed to Triple-A Rochester for the time being.
Garcia, 29, rejected an outright assignment from the A’s earlier this week, instead electing to become a free agent. He’d pitched 8 2/3 innings out of the Oakland bullpen prior to being designated for assignment. In that short stint, he was tagged for eight runs on 13 hits and five walks with six punchouts while averaging 95.5 mph on his heater. Overall, Garcia has a 6.29 ERA in parts of four Major League seasons, but that’s come in a minuscule sample of just 32 2/3 innings between the A’s, Orioles, Giants and Rockies.
At the Triple-A level, Garcia has had considerably better results — particularly over the past two seasons. After pitching to a 2.34 ERA in 34 2/3 frames with the Orioles’ top affiliate last year, he’s logged 25 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball with the Athletics’ Triple-A club so far in 2023. Since last year, Garcia has a 2.70 ERA with a 28.7% strikeout rate but a troublesome 13.7% walk rate. That includes an 18.6% rate of issuing free passes this year, but command issues of that magnitude haven’t existed in the past; Garcia has walked only 8.4% of his nearly 2000 opponents in the minor leagues overall.
Nationals relievers currently rank 28th in Major League Baseball with a collective 5.03 ERA, though their top relievers have been far more successful. That’s a group that includes trade candidates such as Kyle Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr. and Hunter Harvey. Given the already shaky bullpen performance and the possibility of trading some of their steadiest arms as the team’s rebuild progresses, it’s only natural to see president of baseball ops Mike Rizzo stashing some additional depth in the upper minors.
Garcia entered the 2023 season with just under a year of Major League service time and crossed that threshold during his stint with the A’s. If he’s able to crack the Nationals’ roster and pitch well enough to hold down a roster spot, he’d be controllable for another five years.
Who Could The Nationals Trade At The Deadline?
This year’s trade deadline seems like it has the potential to be unique, with very few clear sellers. The expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions mean that there are only five teams that are more than eight games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break.
One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.
The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.
Rental Players
Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.
The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.
The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.
Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.
The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.
Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.
Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year
Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.
Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.
Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.
He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.
Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.
Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.
Longer-Term Players
Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.
He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.
Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.
Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.
Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.
Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.
Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.
His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.
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The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.