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Xander Bogaerts

AL East Notes: Hicks, Bogaerts, Red Sox, Davis

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Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks was cleared to resume baseball activities today and, according to manager Aaron Boone, won’t need a rehab stint that mirrors Spring Training’s six-week length (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). However, Hicks is still multiple weeks away from surfacing as an option for the injury-plagued Yankees, whose outfield currently consists of Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner and Clint Frazier. Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton and Jacoby Ellsbury are among the 11 players New York currently has on the injured list.

More from the AL East…

  • WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford explores the manner in which Xander Bogaerts’ $120MM extension with the Red Sox came together. As agent Scott Boras explained, the Sox had made previous overtures during Bogaerts’ arbitration seasons, but the two sides had never been on the same page. Part of that, per Boras, was a belief that Bogaerts’ offense was eventually going to jump to the level it did last season. A greater driving factor, as Boras tells it, was Boston’s eventual willingness to include an opt-out clause to sweeten the deal. The opt-out not only gives Bogaerts the chance to reevaluate the Red Sox in a few years but more importantly provides him another bite at the free-agent apple. “He’s going to be a 29-year-old free agent,” Boras said. Both president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski and Boras noted that Bogaerts had a strong desire to stay in Boston, which pushed the deal across the finish line in the end.
  • Chris Davis’ season is already off to a nightmare start, Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun writes. The 33-year-old is off to an 0-for-17 start with 11 strikeouts and four walks through 21 plate appearances, including three punchouts in today’s home opener. Davis spoke to reporters after the game and conceded that he wasn’t surprised to be met with a chorus of boos after his third strikeout of the game but noted that it was still “tough” to hear even if Orioles fans are rightful in expressing their displeasure. Rookie manager Brandon Hyde voiced support of the beleaguered slugger and said he plans to continue playing Davis and trying to put him in advantageous matchups to get him going. Davis’ teammates spoke positively of him as well. “He’s one of the better teammates that I’ve had in my time in the big leagues,” said Alex Cobb. “I know he cares so much. To feel that in front of your own fans, I can’t even imagine.”

Red Sox Extend Xander Bogaerts

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Just a week after locking up free-agent-to-be Chris Sale with a five-year extension, the Red Sox secured long-term control over another member of their core Monday when they announced a six-year extension with shortstop Xander Bogaerts.  The deal reportedly guarantees Bogaerts $120MM from 2020-25 (in even, $20MM increments) and contains a vesting option for the 2026 season.  The vesting option is reportedly worth another $20MM and would kick in if Bogaerts made 535 plate appearances in 2025.  Bogaerts, a client of the Boras Corporation, is also said to have received an opt-out provision after the 2022 season.

Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts and the club had been in talks during the winter, and though neither side wanted negotiations to extend into the season itself, it seems things were close enough to the finish line that a deal was able to be struck just beyond Opening Day.

Bogaerts, who turned 26 last October, originally signed with Boston as a 16-year-old amateur out of his native Aruba, and quickly developed into one of baseball’s best prospects.  He made a quick impact in his 2013 rookie season, helping solidify a problematic third base position for the Red Sox as the team went on to win the World Series.  He didn’t fully begin to blossom until the 2015 season, and Bogaerts has gone on to generate 17.6 fWAR over the last four seasons, hitting .295/.354/.446 with 61 homers over 2588 plate appearances.  This includes a career-best 23 homers, .883 OPS, and 133 wRC+ in 2018, as Bogaerts rebounded from an injury-marred 2017 campaign to help lead the Red Sox to another World Series title.

Defensively, Bogaerts has been something of a mixed bag at shortstop.  The Defensive Runs Saved metric has never looked kindly on his glovework (-48 DRS) while his UZR/150 mark of -0.3 posits him as just slightly below average.  There has been some speculation that Bogaerts could eventually move from shortstop, and while that change doesn’t look to be happening anytime soon, that decision could eventually hinge on Rafael Devers’ development as a third baseman, plus whether prospect Michael Chavis plays at second base, third base, or elsewhere around the diamond.

The pact between Boston and Bogaerts is just the latest in a precedent-setting number of extensions over the last few weeks, as multiple superstars (both near and far from free agency) have chosen to lock in guaranteed paydays with their current teams.  Of this group, players who were going to be free agents after the 2019 season included Bogaerts, Sale, Nolan Arenado, Justin Verlander, Paul Goldschmidt, and Aaron Hicks.

It’s clear that the lack of free agent activity in the last two offseasons has influenced many of these decisions, and in Bogaerts’ case, he’ll forego entering the open market for his age-27 season.  Keeping a young player who may just be entering his prime on a $20MM average annual value looks like a very solid deal for the Red Sox.  Bogaerts also has the ability to opt out of the contract as he enters his age-30 season, if he feels he can top the three years and $60MM still owed to him.

For luxury tax purposes, Bogaerts’ new deal will add an even $20MM to Boston’s Competitive Balance Tax bill beginning in 2020.  This is no small factor in the contract, given the rather onerous tax situation the Red Sox find themselves in, though some relief from at least the top level of the CBT structure could come as several contracts come off the books for the club next winter.

It also helps the Red Sox afford what would be their biggest extension yet — a pact with Mookie Betts before the reigning AL MVP hits free agency following the 2020 season.  Betts has been firm in his desire to go year-to-year in arbitration rather than sign a long-term deal before getting his chance on the open market, so the topic of an extension could be moot, though Boston will surely continue to explore the possibility of keeping the star outfielder at Fenway Park even if a $300MM+ commitment is required.  The Bogaerts and Sale extensions are evidence, if Betts needs any, that the Sox are serious about keeping this winning core of players together.

WEEI’s Evan Drellich broke the news that the two sides were close to a deal (Twitter link).  ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported the terms of the contract (Twitter links).  The New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported the inclusion of the vesting option (Twitter links).  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added some details on the option and also first reported that Bogaerts had passed his physical Monday morning (Twitter links).  The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported the final details on the vesting option, while Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweeted the annual breakdown.

Extension Rumors: Cole, Verlander, Red Sox, Castellanos

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The Astros are currently discussing extensions with starters Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required), though a deal with either seems unlikely. Rosenthal notes that the Astros may not be keen on paying market price for a multi-year extension with Verlander when that deal would begin in his age-37 season. Cole, meanwhile, is a Scott Boras client and thus likelier to test the free-agent market. Boras’ most recent extension for a starting pitcher was Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, who (like Cole) was in his walk year when he signed a $175MM guarantee on a seven-year deal beginning in his age-28 season. Cole is in his age-28 season right now, so he’d be a year older than Strasburg at the time of a theoretical extension, but he’s also been more durable, reaching 200 innings in three of the past four seasons. Rosenthal makes a slightly less-aggressive comp than that, pointing out that Cole will reach free agency at the same age as Patrick Corbin and with better career stats. Corbin agreed to a six-year deal worth $140MM with the Nats this winter.

Since it’s officially “Extension Season” — as MLBTR’s Extension Tracker shows, there have been a virtually unprecedented 16 extension agreements during Spring Training — here’s more extension chatter from around the game…

  • Rob Bradford of WEEI spoke to J.D. Martinez about the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox at the end of the season. Martinez, who can opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his current deal, said there haven’t been any discussions about an extension or a restructuring of the contract to this point. Unlike last summer, however, he at least left open a slight window for in-season talks in his most recent interview with Bradford. Martinez has an opt-out after the third year of his contract as well, at which point there’d be two years and $38.75MM remaining on the deal.
  • Red Sox left fielder Andrew Benintendi was drafted five spot behind Alex Bregman and reached the Majors barely a week after the Astros’ third baseman, but Benintendi tells Bradford that his those similarities didn’t make him take particular note of Bregman’s $100MM extension. Rather, the 24-year-old Benintendi says it’s “fun to watch all these guys sign some deals” in a nod to the bevy of extensions throughout MLB. Benintendi and his reps have not discussed an extension with the Sox this winter, though he tells Bradford that he would “definitely” listen if the Sox initiated talks.
  • MLB Network’s Jon Heyman spoke to Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski about the team’s current slate of extension candidates (all links to Twitter). While it’s common for players to place Opening Day deadlines on extension talks, Dombrowski somewhat unusually took a similar stance. “We’re focused on winning this year,” he said. “…Unless something unexpected happens, we’re not going to do anything once the season starts.” Heyman notes that Xander Bogaerts, specifically, has stated an aversion to in-season negotiating. Regarding Martinez, Dombrowski merely stated that the Sox are “hopeful” he won’t opt out of his contract.
  • The Tigers “haven’t engaged in any kind of [extension] conversations” with Nicholas Castellanos this spring, GM Al Avila told MLB.com’s Jason Beck yesterday. There’s been no formal offer or even any formal discussions on the matter with Castellanos’ agent, according to Avila, though he said the possibility of a deal is “obviously… in our minds.” Castellanos has expressed a desire to remain in Detroit on a long-term deal, though the rebuilding Tigers will undoubtedly view him as a possible trade asset this summer as well. If the two sides can eventually find a common ground in terms of price, however, Avila said he wouldn’t rule out an in-season extension. “He hasn’t said anything to the contrary,” Avila said of Castellanos being willing to negotiate beyond Opening Day. “I think he would be open to it.”

Red Sox Have Discussed Extensions With Sale, Bogaerts

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1:17pm: Werner and principal owner John Henry met with the Boston media today and indicated that they’ve not only discussed a long-term deal with Sale but also with Xander Bogaerts (link via the Globe’s Peter Abraham). Like Sale, Bogaerts is slated to become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The ownership reps noted that while they’d love to be able to keep each of Sale, Bogaerts and Mookie Betts in Red Sox uniform for the long haul, such a scenario probably isn’t realistic.

Perhaps of note, when asked about the last top-tier lefty the Sox had on the cusp of free agency, Henry candidly acknowledged that the Red Sox “blew it” when trying to work out an extension with Jon Lester prior to 2014 — Lester’s last in Boston.

8:38am: The Red Sox and ace Chris Sale have had “private” discussions about a contract extension, chairman Tom Werner said in an appearance on WEEI’s Mut & Callahan show this morning (Twitter link, with audio). Sale is currently slated to earn $15MM in 2019 and will become a free agent next offseason. He said last week that the Red Sox had not yet initiated extension negotiations.

Clearly, whether it’s in the form of an extension or in an open-market setting, Sale is in position to command a substantial raise — likely one that would at least double his salary. The seven-time All-Star, who will turn 30 years old in March, has finished in the top five in American League Cy Young voting in each of the past six seasons and has never turned in an ERA higher than 2015’s mark of 3.41. It’s somewhat surprising that Sale has never actually taken home the Cy Young hardware, though his excellence and consistency still make him a solid bet to do so at some point in his career; Sale’s 10.88 K/9 and 5.31 K/BB ratio are both the best all-time marks for any pitcher to ever have thrown 1000 MLB innings.

A new contract for Sale would begin in his age-31 season, so the length of the pact could be a potential sticking point in talks. Teams throughout the league have shown increasing resistance to guaranteeing money to players into their late 30s, and it’s been fairly rare to see five-, six- and seven-year deals that guarantee pitchers into their age-37 seasons. That said, assuming a healthy year from Sale, he could have a case to to top Zack Greinke’s current $34.4MM annual salary record. While he hasn’t previously called that a goal, Sale did recently express the importance of furthering the market for future players.

“You want to do right by the guys who are coming next year, two years, 10 years down the road because you kind of set the bar and the next guy who comes along either gets to that bar or sets it a little more,” Sale said in his own appearance on Mut & Callahan last week. “That’s kind of the brotherhood of being a Major League Baseball player.”

A healthy 2019 season will be of particular importance for Sale in 2019. While he’s long been a consistent force in the rotation with both the White Sox and Red Sox, he was limited to 27 starts last year — his fewest since 2015 — and went through a pair of stints on the disabled list as a result of inflammation in his left shoulder. Sale certainly looked healthy when striking out the side to close out Boston’s World Series win over the Dodgers. though, and he’s now had the benefit of a full offseason to rest that mildly problematic shoulder.

It’s worth noting that an extension for Sale would push the Red Sox into the top luxury tax penalization bracket. As I explored recently when looking at what it’d actually cost the Sox to re-sign Craig Kimbrel — the taxes on any such signing could top $10MM — Boston is only about $6MM south of that $246MM barrier. Viewed through that lens, the Sox may actually prefer to wait until the end of the season, although in doing so they’d also be running the risk of allowing Sale to test the open market.

AL Notes: Vlad Jr., Bogaerts, Twins, Castellanos

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It has long seemed obvious that the Blue Jays would prefer to hold top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at Triple-A to open the 2019 season. After all, the team decided not to call him up late last season and can push back his potential free agency by one season if they keep him down for at least a brief stretch to begin the new campaign. GM Ross Atkins declined yesterday to provide any kind of hint as to the anticipated timing, as Keegan Matheson of the Score tweets, though he did so in a manner that seemingly suggests the club is indeed preparing to hold off on a call-up. “There’s no firm timeline on when [Guerrero] arrives or when he is playing in Toronto for the first time,” said Atkins, “but we want to make sure he’s the best possible third baseman and the best possible hitter he can be.”

Let’s take a look at some other notes from the American League …

  • The Red Sox and shortstop Xander Bogaerts reportedly failed to gain traction in extension talks earlier this winter. Perhaps it’s still possible, though, that the pending free agent could line up with the organization on a new deal. As John Tomase of WEEI.com writes, Bogaerts acknowledged that the slow-developing free agent market provides cause for him to consider extension scenarios — “you obviously have to think about that,” he said — though he also did not exactly hint that he’s particularly inclined to forego the risks and upside of the open market. The 26-year-old called this winter’s market developments “weird.” As for the possibility of a future in Boston, he ultimately would say only that he likes playing with the team and that “we’ll see what happens.”
  • While the Twins have looked into extensions with multiple young players, and recently locked up both Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, all is quiet on that front at this point, per LaVelle E. Neal III off the Star Tribune (via Twitter). Players such as outfielder Eddie Rosario and righty Jose Berrios would seem to represent highly appealing targets, though both also have added leverage due to their strong 2018 seasons.
  • The Tigers, meanwhile, do not appear to have anything in the works with outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, who seems to be more of a mid-season trade candidate than extension candidate. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes that skipper Ron Gardenhire would prefer Castellanos stick around. He just might get his wish, at least for the first half of the season, as it still seems there’s insufficient market interest in the defensively challenged slugger to pique the Detroit organization’s interest.

Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Betts, Sale, Porcello, Bullpen, Catchers

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Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reported earlier this month that the world champion Red Sox had been discussing a contract extension with an unnamed player. It turns out that player was shortstop Xander Bogaerts, according to Drellich, though he adds that the two sides never came close to an agreement during their talks. The 26-year-old Bogaerts is now slated to make $12MM in 2019, potentially his last season with the Red Sox. Meanwhile, outfielder Andrew Benintendi – who, according to industry speculation, was an extension target for the Red Sox earlier this offseason – said Saturday he and the team haven’t talked about a new pact, Drellich relays. The 24-year-old Benintendi still has another pre-arbitration season remaining, meaning the Red Sox aren’t in danger of losing him for a while.

  • As with Bogaerts, the Red Sox are at risk of losing outfielder and reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts in the near future. Betts, 26, is entering his penultimate year of arbitration control, in which he’ll earn $20MM (a record for a player in Year 2 of arb eligibility). Unsurprisingly, though, the Red Sox want to keep Betts in the fold for the long haul. CEO Sam Kennedy stated Saturday (via Drellich) that “we’ve made it crystal clear that we want him a part of the Red Sox organization long term.” Betts, for his part, said: “Contract things are kind of tough to come up with, especially with both sides and kind of how the economics and all those things work. I love Boston, love my teammates, love the fans and all those types of things, so we’ll just continue to see what happens.” While Betts does appear open to signing an extension with the Red Sox, he doesn’t seem averse to testing the open market, per Drellich.
  • Two key members of Boston’s starting staff, left-hander Chris Sale and righty Rick Porcello, could each hit free agency a year from now. The soon-to-be 30-year-old Sale suggested Saturday that he’s willing to discuss an extension, but the Red Sox haven’t broached the subject yet. “My phone is on if they call me,” he said (via Ian Browne of MLB.com). “Obviously nothing has happened up until this point. If they call, I’d answer.” Sale also indicated that his left shoulder – which was a problem at times late last season, when he dealt with a massive drop in velocity – is no longer an issue. As for Porcello, 30, he also revealed that no extension talks have taken place, though he’d “love to” discuss a new contract with the club, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. For now, Porcello’s on track to wrap up the four-year, $82.5MM pact he signed with the Red Sox in April 2015.
  • Having lost Joe Kelly to the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel to the open market, Boston’s “actively engaged with multiple free-agent relievers,” Cotillo writes. While Cotillo doesn’t rule out a Kimbrel re-signing, he notes an addition could come in the $2MM to $3MM neighborhood. Kimbrel will certainly earn far more than that, though there are several other free agents who could be possibilities for the Red Sox in that price range.
  • Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Thursday he doesn’t expect that all three of the team’s catchers – Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart – will be on its Opening Day roster, Sean McAdam of BostonSportsJournal.com reports (subscription required). Because all of those players are out of options, a trade is likely coming. Dombrowski noted that “there’s interest, but we still haven’t made a deal we feel comfortable making.” All three catchers had abysmal offensive seasons over 200-plus plate appearances in 2018, but if defense is Boston’s main concern, the odd man out may be Swihart. After all, the former high-end prospect has accrued little playing time as a backstop over the past few years.

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley

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4:05pm: The Boston org has wrapped up deals with all of its dozen arb-eligible players, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). We’ve covered several other players elsewhere. Notably, shortstop Xander Bogaerts ($12MM) and outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8.55MM) have agreed to big salaries.

11:20am: The Red Sox and American League MVP Mookie Betts have settled on a one-year deal worth $20MM, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The salary figure is a record for a player in his second year of arbitration eligibility. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Betts could earn an additional $400K via awards (Twitter link). Betts, who will remain under team control through 2020, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $18.7MM.

Fresh off a historic 2018 campaign in which he slashed an otherworldly .346/.438/.640 en route to a World Series title, Betts earned himself a $9.5MM raise from his previous salary. His record-setting deal will establish the new standard for players with four-plus years of MLB service time. In fact, notes Jeff Passan of ESPN, Betts’s new contract has been exceeded only by players in their fourth year of arbitration by virtue of the Super Two rule.

Furthermore, this development could be notable for the Red Sox in that the team failed to reach an agreement with their superstar outfielder last winter, leading to an arbitration hearing to determine his salary. It is possible that this settlement could signify an increased willingness to discuss a potential contract extension, for which it appears talks have yet to substantially progress, in the future. However, should the two sides fail to agree to a multi-year extension next offseason–Betts’s last arbitration-eligible season before reaching free agency–the three-time All-Star could command an astronomical salary in his final year of team control; at the very least, Betts appears poised to eclipse–if not shatter–the $23MM record set by Josh Donaldson one year ago, which currently marks the highest one-year arbitration salary ever.

Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Payroll, Sale, Catchers

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Following a startling afternoon report that the Red Sox would “listen” to offers on franchise cornerstones Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello, and Jackie Bradley Jr., presumably in order to clear payroll space for upgrades elsewhere on the diamond, the BoSox brass spent much of the evening in equivocation.  Indeed, NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich reports that the defending champs would need to be “blown away” to deal their star shortstop, and the notion that they’re “actively shopping” these players is “overblown.”  Replacing the 26-year-old Bogaerts, who’s posted an exceptional 17.4 fWAR over the last four seasons, would be nearly impossible, and the rental market, at least in recent times, leaves little to be desired.  Boston, though, will face a number of tough decisions with core players in the upcoming seasons: after all, nearly half of the team’s projected 25-man roster is set to hit free agency by the conclusion of 2020 season.

In other news from Beantown . . .

  • Both Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chad Jennings of The Athletic offer insight into the potential mass exodus set to hit the club after the 2019 and 2020 seasons.  Each of Bogaerts, Porcello, Chris Sale, and possibly J.D. Martinez (if he elects to exercise his opt-out) are free agents after next season, with Bradley and Mookie Betts set to hit the market the following year.  Though the club’s annual reserves match (and often surpass) that of any other MLB team, keeping all these players in the fold seems altogether unlikely: “I do caution, and the one thing I keep talking about, is that it’s just from a financial perspective and rule perspective, it’s not going to be possible to keep everybody that we have,” GM Dave Dombrowski said. “You have to realize that if anybody is signed long term now, it may have an effect on some other things that you may do later on.”  It seems prudent, then, to cull from at least two of the lower-profile members of the group (which includes a half-dozen or so other contributors), though Porcello, with his $21.1MM salary for next season, and Bradley, with declining performance in the box, may not yield the assets the BoSox desire.
  • Drellich, in a separate report, cites sources claiming that lefty Chris Sale would be “open” to extension talks, and perhaps more so than “most players of his caliber.”  The 29-year-old, of course, just completed one of the most impressive seasons in AL history and is on a surefire hall-of-fame trajectory; the figures, then, are sure to be astronomical, but neither the team nor Dombrowski have shied away from huge starting-pitcher payouts in the past.
  • Christopher Smith of MLB.com reports that the Sox “prefer to trade” one of their three catchers before Spring Training but “are willing” to hold on to each. Blake Swihart, long the subject of trade rumors across the baseball landscape, continued to disappoint at the plate in 2018, while platoon mates Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon combined for a dreadful -1.7 fWAR. The position seems a clear target of upgrade for the defending champs, though dealing from their current surfeit may be challenging, to say the least.

Report: Red Sox Taking Offers On Rick Porcello, Others

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The defending World Series champion Red Sox are at least opening the door to some surprising sell-side moves, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links). Though the club is obviously not going to divert from its attempt to repeat, it seems there’s a movement afoot to pare back some existing payroll.

The true end goal here isn’t clear. Boston already splurged to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi, giving him a four-year deal at a $17MM rate of pay, and it doesn’t seem as if the club is interested in doing anything that would substantially harm its competitive position. The division, after all, promises to be quite competitive — to say nothing of the top-heavy American League.

Still, the Sox are said to be “openly listening” to offers for veteran right-hander Rick Porcello, who’ll earn $21MM this year before reaching free agency. Yet more surprisingly, the club is said to be “willing to talk about” star shortstop Xander Bogaerts (projected $11.9MM arbitration salary in final season of eligibility) and quality center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. ($7.9MM, second-to-last season of eligibility).

Parting with any of these players would clearly harm the team’s 2019 roster — unless, that is, there was a plan in place to add a different piece to fill the opening. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the idea would indeed be to repurpose any payroll savings, perhaps opening the door to some bullpen reinforcements.

While that’s sensible from one perspective, it still feels like an incomplete picture. After all, it’s not as if the Boston organization has high-quality fill-in pieces knocking down the door.  In Porcello’s case, at least, there’s an argument that the Red Sox have sufficient depth after bringing back Eovaldi, but it obviously wouldn’t be as good as the sturdy 29-year-old. Bogaerts is not remotely replaceable from within; presumably, the club would go onto the market for a different option at short. As for Bradley, it’s easy to imagine Andrew Benintendi taking over in center, but that’d still leave an outfield opening that would need to be addressed in some regard (perhaps in part through reliance upon Steve Pearce and other existing reserves).

It’s fair to wonder just what the Sox could anticipate recouping in hypothetical trades. Porcello’s hefty salary limits his appeal, making him more of a candidate to be dealt for another spendy veteran or perhaps a limited prospect return. Bogaerts has plenty of rental value, though the Red Sox would be dealing with fellow contenders to find a fit and there’s limited demand at the shortstop position. Bradley is controllable fr two years and could fit in plenty of places, though his offensive numbers have been down and he’s not the type of piece that most teams would go wild to acquire — particularly with some similar players potentially also available via trade.

Generally speaking, boosting the farm would certainly be of interest, but it’d be quite tricky to do that and save money without significantly damaging the team’s immediate competitiveness. Sussing out how this potential strategy could make sense in the aggregate is frankly difficult to do without contemplating multiple successive transactions. It’s certainly a fascinating development for the Red Sox and the broader market, but it is tough to guess at this point how it might all play out.

Red Sox Rumors: JDM, Bogaerts, Kikuchi, Payroll, Farm

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Both J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are likely to test free agency a year from now, writes Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. Martinez has an opt-out provision in his five-year, $110MM contract with the Red Sox, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski gave no indication of interest in restructuring that deal, per Drellich. “He can choose to leave, it’s his opt out,” said Dombrowski. “But the reason we put ‘em in there were medically oriented as we went through at the time. That medical hasn’t changed.” Dombrowski is referring to medical provisions that were worked into the contract, allowing the Red Sox to convert the final two seasons of the deal into mutual options in the event that Martinez misses enough time due to a preexisting Lisfranc injury in his foot. As for Bogaerts, Dombrowski called his contract situation “important” for the team. Agent Scott Boras, meanwhile, told Drellich he’s “open to any thoughts [the Red Sox] have on the subject.” Asked about a recent extension for fellow client Jose Altuve, Boras pointed out that Bogaerts is two and a half years younger and also plays shortstop.

More from Boston…

  • Boston’s interest in Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is expected to be posted for MLB teams later this month, can be described as “lukewarm,” reports WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Dombrowski declined to comment on Kikuchi at the GM Meetings, beyond indicating that as one of Japan’s top arms, he’s a pitcher the Sox have scouted frequently in the past (as have many MLB clubs). “Yes, we have a pulse on him,” said Dombrowski. Boston could theoretically look to add some arms behind its top trio of Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello — especially considering Sale’s presence on next year’s free-agent market — but it doesn’t sound as though Kikuchi will be a prime target.
  • In a pair of columns for the Boston Globe, Alex Speier looks at Boston’s payroll/luxury tax situation as well as the team’s poorly regarded farm system. There’s virtually no scenario in which the Sox will avoid another season of luxury tax penalization, Speier observes, making the question not one of if they’ll incur penalty but rather one of how steep a penalty they’re willing to accept. Boston went into the highest luxury bracket this season and will be taxed at the maximum rate while also seeing its top draft pick dropped by 10 spots. Principal owner John Henry tells Speier, “You can’t do that all the time,” but Speier notes that it’s not clear if the organization is willing to do so once more in 2019. From a distance, it’s worth noting that this is the final season of club control over Sale, Martinez and Bogaerts, so there’s a good case to be made for maintaining aggression (though that’s just my own two cents). As for the farm system, Speier notes that a survey of rival evaluators left no real consensus as to the team’s top prospect — a fact that serves to highlight the general uncertainty that permeates the farm. But, the Sox surely have the pieces to once again be active on next summer’s rental market, Speier notes while highlighting a particular concentration of interesting third base prospects.

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