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MLBTR Podcast: Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Padres To Deploy Xander Bogaerts At Shortstop In 2025

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Longtime shortstop Xander Bogaerts headed into the 2024 season as the Padres’ new everyday second baseman, but he moved back to short in September to fill the void when Ha-Seong Kim was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury. With Kim now poised to join the Rays, the path is clear for Bogaerts to return to his old position. Padres manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that Bogaerts will be the team’s regular shortstop in 2025, and that the veteran is “excited” about the opportunity.

The news isn’t necessarily a shock, as Bogaerts retook the position down the stretch and into the postseason while Kim was on the IL late last year. He’s far from the only player on the roster with shortstop experience, but president of baseball operations AJ Preller made it clear at the start of the offseason that he wasn’t enthused by the prospect of moving either of his former shortstops in the outfield, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill, back onto the infield dirt in 2025. There have been at least some indications throughout the winter that rival clubs have expressed interest in Bogaerts as a potential trade candidate but the veteran’s hefty contract has long made such an arrangement look unlikely. It’s hardly a shock that San Diego has him penciled in for the starting shortstop gig to open the season given the unlikeliness of a trade, particularly now that Kim has reached an agreement elsewhere that will shut the door on a reunion.

As Bogaerts enters his age 32 season in 2025, he’ll be looking to rebound from the worst campaign of his career last year. In the second year of his 11-year, $280MM contract with San Diego the infielder was limited to just 111 games by a fractured left shoulder and hit just .264/.307/.381 (95 wRC+) when healthy enough to take the field. Notably, Bogaerts began to look a bit more like himself after returning from injury in the second half with a .299/.338/.432 (117 wRC+) in 64 games after being activated from the injured list in mid-July. That’s more or less in line with the 119 wRC+ he posted during his first year in San Diego, when he was able to put together a campaign worth 4.6 fWAR. That was the seventh best season among all shortstops in baseball in 2023, and the Padres would surely be delighted by a similar performance in 2025.

With Bogaerts seemingly entrenched at shortstop, the rest of the club’s infield mix falls into place with Manny Machado remaining at third base while Jake Cronenworth slides over to second in place of Bogaerts. Luis Arraez stands as the current top candidate to handle first base as things stand despite his name frequently appearing in the rumor mill this winter, but the Padres preferred to use him as their DH for the majority of his time in San Diego last year. With at least one bat seemingly needed between first base and DH, where Arraez ends up playing could come down to what player is added to the 1B/DH mix alongside him. J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner are among the best remaining players available at DH in free agency, while first base has a handful of relatively affordable veterans available like Anthony Rizzo and Mark Canha.

Padres Have Considered Luis Arráez Trade

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The Padres seem to have a budget crunch and are considering all kinds of options for how to stop feeling the squeeze. It was reported this week that they have been exploring the possibility of trading right-hander Dylan Cease and now Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that they have discussed trading infielder Luis Arráez. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they have received inquires on Cease, Arráez and Xander Bogaerts as well.

It was reported this week that the club was probably going to have to drop its payroll commitments. They had a $169MM payroll in 2024 but RosterResource currently projects them to be at $210MM next year. It’s not known exactly where they need to wind up, but it should be somewhere in between those two numbers. Acee’s report from today suggests that Preller can be above $169MM but not by much. Trading prospects doesn’t seem to be a strong consideration since the club has done a lot of that in recent years. The farm is still highlighted by Leodalis De Vries and Ethan Salas but all reports have suggested those two are fairly untouchable.

That’s a tricky situation since the Friars need to upgrade at catcher, in an outfield corner and in the rotation. Doing so while also cutting spending is a difficult tightrope to walk. It’s a similar situation to last winter, when the Padres also had to scale back the budget but had notable concerns about the pitching depth and outfield.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller somehow made it work by trading Juan Soto to the Yankees for a pile of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with the latter then used to acquire Cease. They also moved shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill to center field, skipping him over Triple-A, and struck gold by signing Jurickson Profar for just $1MM. They ended up having a good season and getting back into the playoffs but now face another tough balancing act.

Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are all making big money but those contracts are hard to move, both because the players are key parts of the roster and each has a full no-trade clause. Cease and Arráez, however, have no such protection and both are controlled for just one more season via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year and Cease for $13.7MM.

That amount of money is perhaps a sweet spot. The players should have surplus value, meaning they would generate interest from other clubs, but the numbers are also big enough where a trade would reduce San Diego’s payroll by a notable amount.

It will be a delicate line for Preller to walk, especially with Cease. The rotation is already thin as it is, with Musgrove slated to miss most or all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. There’s a strong front three of Cease, King and Darvish but question marks after that. Moving Cease could save some money and bring back a return of some kind, but it would make the rotation depth even thinner. Getting Roki Sasaki would be ideal since he’s very good and will be limited to a small signing bonus, but there’s no guarantees there and it will be another month before there’s clarity on the situation.

One thing that could help is converting a reliever to a full-time starting role, as they did with King last year and Seth Lugo before. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays that Preller has identified Adrián Morejón, Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek as candidates for such a move.

MLBTR looked into the possibility of stretching out Morejón in October, though MLBTR readers were fairly split on the idea, with a slight majority favoring him staying in the bullpen. The argument for stretching him out is that he was once a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect before getting derailed by injuries. In 2024, he was healthy enough to avoid the IL all year, tossing 63 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 2.83 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate. The Padres could just keep him in that role since it worked for him but they could also view that healthy season as a springboard to a larger workload in 2025.

Neither Hoeing nor Kolek had the same prospect pedigree as Morejón but both have largely worked in relief after coming up as starters in the minors. Hoeing tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2024 with a 2.18 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 48.3% ground ball rate. Kolek tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 5.21 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate.

Any of the three would be far cheaper than Cease. Hoeing and Kolek are still in their pre-arbitration years. Morejón’s injuries have limited him to modest $1.8MM projection for next year even though he has more than four years of service time. That price point is attractive but there’s obviously big risk in flipping an established starter like Cease and hoping for these guys to slot in for him.

With Arráez, it’s a bit easier to see the logic. Without him, the club could have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth from left to right. Finding a passable first baseman for less than what Arráez is slated to make is more plausible than replacing Cease with a pitcher of similar quality. They could flip Arráez for whatever clubs are willing to offer in return, then theoretically sign someone like Donovan Solano, Carlos Santana or Justin Turner for less money.

But on the other hand, the teams interested in Arráez could also look to those options as reasons to not give up much in trade. Despite winning three straight batting titles, Arráez is a fairly limited player since he’s not a strong defender, doesn’t walk much and doesn’t provide power. He’s certainly useful but Acee suggests Cease is more likely to move because the prices on starting pitching have been aggressive this winter, meaning he would have more interest than Arráez despite having essentially the same projected salary.

The Bogaerts possibility in interesting but the least likely of the three to come together. As mentioned, he has a full no-trade clause and would have to approve any deal. He’s also set to make $25MM annually for another nine years, leaving $225MM left on his deal. Heyman suggests that the strong spending this winter makes the deal look more attractive than before, but that’s still an underwater deal.

Bogaerts is three years older than Willy Adames, who just got a guarantee of $182MM from the Giants. He’s also coming off a down year in which he missed time due to injury and slashed .264/.307/.381 for a 95 wRC+. His shortstop defense has also been questionable enough that the Padres moved him to second base in deference to Ha-Seong Kim, though he did retake the position late in the year when Kim was hurt. Even if the Padres found a taker for Bogaerts, it would create a shortstop vacancy and add another item to the to-do list. Re-signing Kim is theoretically possible but he’s still recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be a factor in the first half of the season. The free agent market doesn’t have any more clear-cut everyday options.

Speculatively speaking, it’s a bit easier to see this kind of thing with Cronenworth, who had been in trade rumors in the past. Going into 2023, he and the Padres agreed to a seven-year, $80MM extension for the 2024-30 seasons. He then had a down year in 2023 and the Friars looked into moving him during last winter’s budget crunch but didn’t get anything done. He bounced back with a .241/.324/.390 showing in 2024 for a 105 wRC+, much better than his .229/.312/.378 line and 91 wRC+ in 2023.

He is still owed $71MM over the next six years but that’s less than a third of the money left on the Bogaerts deal. Cronenworth is also a bit younger, turning 31 in January. Trading him would open a hole at second base for the Friars, unless they are willing to play Arráez there, but free agency features Gleyber Torres, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco and other possible replacements.

There are many factors for Preller to balance as he puts together next year’s club, but it’s at least a position he’s familiar with. Naturally, how he proceeds will depend on what other clubs are offering for Cease or Arráez or other players, but it will interesting to see him juggle all the different elements.

Preller Discusses Padres’ Shortstop Situation

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The Padres find themselves in an unfamiliar position. San Diego could be on the lookout for a shortstop despite their affinity for collecting players with experience at the position. Most of those players (i.e. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth) moved off shortstop. Ha-Seong Kim will be a free agent when he declines his end of a mutual option in favor of a $2MM buyout. Kim is among the most difficult free agents to project after his season was cut short by a labrum injury that required surgery.

San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller addressed the position as part of a conference call with reporters on Monday (links via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Preller said the Padres “would love to bring (Kim) back” but acknowledged the uncertain timeline on his injury.

The Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee wrote a few weeks ago that Kim was aiming for a return in April or May. Preller left the situation more open-ended. The executive noted that Kim isn’t slated to begin a throwing program until close to the start of the season. As for a return to game action, Preller loosely floated “May, June, July” as viable outcomes.

It’s clearly too early in the rehab process for the Padres to narrow down a specific target. That uncertainty should all but close the book on the chance of San Diego issuing Kim a qualifying offer. The 29-year-old infielder would probably accept a $21.05MM salary, which is too much for the Padres to risk with Kim looking very likely to at least begin the season on the injured list.

Preller and his staff also face notable free agent losses in the bullpen (Tanner Scott), left field (Jurickson Profar) and behind the plate (Kyle Higashioka). The relief group should be strong enough to weather Scott’s departure, but the Padres will need to address a few spots in the lineup while also finding a replacement for the injured Joe Musgrove in the rotation. That could make it difficult to retain Kim.

Even if the Padres were to bring him back, they’d need a short-term replacement while he completes his rehab. If he walks, they’ll need a permanent answer. Bogaerts moved back from second base for the stretch run. The Padres seem to prefer him at the keystone, though they might not have any better options at shortstop.

Machado and Cronenworth haven’t played there in years. Nor has Tatis, who has been a full-time right fielder since returning from the injuries and suspension that wiped out his 2022 season. Merrill developed as a shortstop prospect before learning center field on the fly. The 21-year-old immediately became one of the sport’s top all-around center fielders.

Preller didn’t seem keen on the idea of moving Tatis or Merrill back to the infield. “They’d probably love that possibility. They always joke around — ’Whatever’s needed,’” the baseball ops president said. “The great part of those guys is they’re talented athletes, they can play different spots. … But Tati winning the Platinum [Glove] two years ago, and Jackson doing a tremendous job in center field this year, we know that they’re really good at what they do in the outfield.”

There hasn’t been much serious discussion about Tatis moving back to shortstop. It’s a plausible scenario for Merrill, who only moved off shortstop in deference to Kim and seems as if he can comfortably adjust to whatever position the Padres ask of him. Yet as Preller noted, it’s tempting to leave Merrill in center field with how well he played this year. San Diego doesn’t have an obvious in-house candidate to take over in center if Merrill were to come back onto the infield. They’d probably need to acquire a center fielder and the free agent market at the position is extremely thin. It’s not much deeper at shortstop, where only Willy Adames and Kim, if healthy, profile as regulars.

Ha-Seong Kim Reportedly Targeting Early-Season Return From Labrum Surgery

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Ha-Seong Kim underwent labrum surgery on his right shoulder on Thursday. The Padres never provided a timeline for the infielder’s return, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune sheds some light on the recovery. According to Acee, Kim is targeting mid-late April or early May for his return to game action.

If he’s able to stay on that trajectory, Kim could be available for the majority of next season. Kim, who turns 29 next week, now represents one of the more interesting risk-reward plays in the free agent class. He’s still a lock to decline his end of a mutual option. The Padres could make him a $21.05MM qualifying offer, but that’d be a risky decision this early into his recovery from shoulder surgery. QO decisions are due within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. That’ll only afford the Padres about three weeks to gauge Kim’s health before making that call.

It seems unlikely the Padres would take that gamble. That’d allow Kim to hit free agency unencumbered by draft compensation. If healthy, he’d probably be in line for a contract of four-plus seasons. At his best, he’s only behind Willy Adames among middle infielders in the upcoming class. Adames is the only other impending free agent who profiles as an everyday shortstop. Kim has demonstrated that he can play plus defense at second and third base, as well, so he’d make sense for a broad range of teams.

Clubs’ evaluations of Kim’s shoulder will play an important role in his free agent process. If teams believe he’ll be fully recovered within the first month or two of next season, the injury theoretically shouldn’t have a huge impact on demand. That’s a big caveat, so it’s possible Kim’s market dips to the point where he considers a short-term deal.

Kim recently hired the Boras Corporation as his representation. A few rehabbing high-profile Boras clients have signed two-year contracts that allow them to opt out after the first season. Michael Conforto signed for $36MM with the Giants after missing the entire 2022 season to shoulder surgery. Last winter, Rhys Hoskins inked a $34MM deal with the Brewers a season removed from a Spring Training ACL tear.

Neither of those contracts have worked out especially well for the team. Conforto passed on his opt-out after a middling first season in San Francisco. Hoskins will probably do the same with Milwaukee. Kim is a very different player than Conforto or Hoskins — a lot more of his value is tied in his defense — but that’s a general path he might look to follow.

The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote this afternoon that the Padres would like to bring Kim back, though he notes that the infielder could price himself out of San Diego’s range. That’d leave the Friars with a question at shortstop. San Diego used Xander Bogaerts at the position down the stretch. Lin indicates the Padres prefer to move Bogaerts back to second base next season. Jackson Merrill came up as a shortstop prospect but played all 1300+ innings in center field as a rookie. Merrill had a fantastic debut campaign, so the Padres could decide to leave him in center.

Freddie Freeman, Xander Bogaerts Leave NLDS Game 2 Due To Injuries

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The Padres hit six home runs in what turned into a rout of a 10-2 victory in Game 2 of their NLDS matchup with the Dodgers, knotting the series 1-1 as the scene shifts to San Diego for Games 3 and 4 on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Neither club emerged from Game 2 unscathed, however, as both Freddie Freeman (left ankle discomfort) and Xander Bogaerts (hamstring cramp) made early exits due to injury.

Freeman’s exit is the less surprising of the two, as the first baseman’s attempts to play through both a bone bruise and a sprain of his left ankle has become one of the series’ chief storylines.  After going 2-for-5 and even stealing a base in the Dodgers’ Game 1 victory, Freeman went 0-for-2 tonight before he was replaced in the field heading into the top of the sixth.  Freeman was due up to the plate again in the bottom of the sixth and L.A. was trailing only 3-1 after five innings, yet he was clearly not feeling well enough to continue playing.  Post-game, manager Dave Roberts told Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link) and other reporters that the team would know more about Freeman’s status after working out tomorrow during the club’s off-day.

Freeman suffered what was initially diagnosed as just an ankle sprain on September 26, in the Dodgers’ fourth-last game of the regular season.  X-rays were negative, but Freeman revealed to reporters that the combination of the sprain and the bone bruise would normally sideline him for 4-to-6 weeks if this was the regular season.  However, on just eight full days of rest, Freeman returned to the field in Game 1, though it wasn’t clear until just a few hours before game time if the first baseman would indeed be ready to go.

Bogaerts seemingly suffered his injury while hitting a foul ball during his plate appearance in the eighth inning, yet the shortstop seemingly looked no worse for wear in hitting a solo homer.  The Padres ended the frame with a 7-1 lead, which perhaps gave the club a little more flexibility to replace Bogaerts in the field with Tyler Wade in the top of the eighth.

Monday is an off-day in the series, so Freeman and Bogaerts will get some built-in time to recuperate before play resumes.  While Bogaerts’ cramp doesn’t seem overly serious, Wade is the natural replacement at shortstop if Bogaerts isn’t ready for Tuesday’s Game 3.  If Bogaerts can hit but not field, the Padres can use Wade at shortstop, Luis Arraez at first base, and Bogaerts could conceivably act as the designated hitter.

Shohei Ohtani’s presence in the DH spot gives the Dodgers no such flexibility with Freeman, as he’d have to play first base if he is to be part of the team’s starting lineup.  If he can’t start, Freeman would therefore seemingly be limited to pinch-hit duty, which then necessitates a larger shuffle of the Dodgers’ lineup.  Obviously losing Freeman under any circumstance is bad news for Los Angeles, but losing a key left-handed bat will hamper the Dodgers against Game 3 starter Michael King (a right-hander), and L.A. is lacking in left-handed bench depth.

As a reminder, teams can make injury replacements to a series roster, but at a significant longer-term cost.  Replaced players would not only be out for the rest of the NLDS, but they also wouldn’t be able to participate in the NLCS if their team was to advance to the next round.  This rule is surely weighing on the Dodgers in particular as they figure out Freeman’s status, though it would seem as if Freeman would have to have seriously re-aggravated his injury for L.A. to remove him from the roster altogether.

Padres Activate Xander Bogaerts

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The Padres reinstated Xander Bogaerts from the 10-day injured list for tonight’s series opener against the Braves. San Diego also recalled Sean Reynolds for his MLB debut, a move that was first reported this afternoon. In corresponding moves, the Padres placed reliever Wandy Peralta on the 15-day IL (retroactive to July 10) with an adductor strain and optioned catcher Brett Sullivan.

Getting Bogaerts back is the most notable of tonight’s slate of moves. He has been out since late May after breaking his left shoulder. There was initially some thought that the four-time All-Star could be out of action into August. He made a fairly quick recovery, getting back to the big leagues in around seven weeks. Bogaerts made two rehab appearances in Low-A and appeared in four contests with Triple-A El Paso.

Skipper Mike Shildt penciled Bogaerts back in at second base and in the fifth spot in the batting order. The Padres will hope for much better production than he managed over the first six weeks of the season. Bogaerts was out to a .219/.265/.316 start in an even 200 plate appearances. That’d easily be the worst year of his career if he kept on that pace, but he’s only a year removed from a robust .285/.350/.440 showing.

After the Bogaerts injury, Jake Cronenworth slid over to second base. He’s back at first base tonight and figures to spend most of his time there moving forward. That’ll bump Luis Arraez back to designated hitter on most nights and chip into the playing time available to Donovan Solano. That’s not any reflection on his performance. Since the Friars selected Solano’s minor league deal on May 5, he’s hitting .286/.345/.398 through 177 plate appearances. The Colombia native has been an average or better hitter on a rate basis over the past six seasons with the Giants, Reds, Twins and Padres.

As for Peralta, he’ll miss at least the next couple weeks. The recipient of a surprising four-year guarantee last offseason, he owns a 4.50 ERA over 41 appearances. Peralta has a customarily strong 53.2% grounder percentage but has run into trouble when opponents managed to elevate the ball. He’s giving up home runs at a lofty 1.59 clip per nine innings.

Xander Bogaerts To Miss Significant Time Due To Shoulder Fracture

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The Padres announced that they have placed infielder Xander Bogaerts on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 21, with a left shoulder fracture. Outfielder David Peralta was selected to take Bogaerts’ place on the active roster. To open a spot for Peralta on the 40-man, right-hander Luis Patiño was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune previously relayed on X that Bogaerts would be going on the IL and a follow-up tweet provided more information about the fracture. At this point, it doesn’t appear as though surgery is required, though Bogaerts will need to miss time as the bone heals, with more tests planned for today. “Late summer” is floated as a possible return time, which leaves a lot of vagaries about the months to come, though Acee says Bogaerts will be out at least two months in a column at the SDUT.

On Monday, Bogaerts appeared to injure himself when diving to field a grounder off the bat of Ronald Acuña Jr. (video link from MLB.com.) The initial imaging was negative, as relayed on X by Acee on Monday, but it seems subsequent tests have revealed a fracture.

The veteran infielder wasn’t off to a good start this year, currently hitting .219/.265/.316 for the season, but has been far better in the past. He hit .285/.350/.440 for the Friars last year and produced similarly for the Red Sox in the five prior seasons.

The Padres would have been expecting Bogaerts to right the ship in the coming months but that won’t happen now, at least not soon. The club is below .500 at 25-26 but nonetheless currently holds the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They will have to try to cling to that spot without that Bogaerts turnaround in the weeks to come.

The club recently acquired infielder Luis Arráez, largely with the plan of putting him in the designated hitter slot. But he’s played second base since Bogaerts hurt himself and could stay there for the foreseeable future. Arráez is one of the best contact hitters in the game but is generally considered a poor defender at the keystone. Bogaerts just recently moved to the position from shortstop and has -2 Defensive Runs Saved this year but four Outs Above Average.

Offensively, the club may now rotate various hitters through the DH slot if Arráez is going to be playing the field regularly. The past two games have seen Manny Machado and Donovan Solano DHing, with Jurickson Profar in there today.

The 36-year-old Peralta joins the outfield mix alongside Profar, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and José Azocar. It was just over a week ago that Peralta opted out of his minor league deal with the Cubs, which led to a minor league deal with the Padres over the weekend.

With Triple-A Iowa, Peralta was drawing walks at a 14.1% rate but slashing just .217/.341/.348 for a wRC+ of 84. He’s also coming off a down year in the majors, as he hit .259/.294/.381 with the Dodgers last year for a wRC+ of 82.

But Peralta has hit .279/.335/.450 overall in his career, which translates to a wRC+ of 108. He’s also been considered an above average defender in the outfield, mostly in the corners. His lackluster results last year may have been due to a flexor tendon injury, which popped up around the All-Star break and later required surgery. The Padres will surely be hoping for Peralta to return to his pre-2023 results.

Peralta is in left field tonight as Profar is in the DH slot. As mentioned, manager Mike Shildt could give various players DH time for semi-rest days going forward. Though with the Arráez trade, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has shown he’s not afraid of a midseason deal, even if we’re nowhere near the deadline yet. Perhaps another move will be forthcoming as a response to the Bogaerts injury. But for now, it’s a tough development for a club in an extremely tight playoff race.

As for Patiño, he underwent Tommy John surgery just over three weeks ago and is going to miss the remainder of the season.

Padres To Move Xander Bogaerts To Second Base

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Padres manager Mike Shildt told members of the media today that Xander Bogaerts will be moving from shortstop to second base, with Dennis Lin of The Athletic among those to relay the news. Ha-Seong Kim will cross the bag in the other direction to take over the shortstop position.

It was just a little over a year ago that the Padres signed Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM contract. At the time, it was a bit of a puzzling fit on the club’s roster. Fernando Tatis Jr. was supposed to be the franchise shortstop once upon a time. In February of 2021, he and the Friars agreed to a historic 14-year, $340MM extension to keep him on the club for the bulk of his career. He ended up missing the 2022 season both due to injuries and a PED suspension, but he was expected back early in 2023. While he was out, Kim provided excellent glovework at the position.

Going into 2023, there was a bit of uncertainty. Tatis was coming off an entirely missed season and the club was thinking about moving him to the outfield. But even if that scenario, they still had Kim to cover short. It wasn’t really expected that they would head into the offseason looking for a mega deal but they landed Bogaerts nonetheless.

Bogaerts’ first year in San Diego resulted in fairly typical offensive production for him. He hit 19 home runs and slashed .285/.350/.440 for a wRC+ of 120. Defensively, Outs Above Average gave him a positive grade of +3 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at -4. He has long been considered a candidate to move off of shortstop, even as a prospect, and it seems the time has now come. For his career, his tallies at short are -31 OAA and -54 DRS.

In the short term, the move is probably best for the 2024 version of the Padres, as Kim is excellent with the glove. He has played 1,505 1/3 innings at short in the majors, just over a full season’s worth. In that time, he’s tallied 22 DRS and 7 OAA. Having him at short and Bogaerts at second should give the club a great middle infield, as even mediocre shortstops often provide solid defense on the other side of the bag.

But taking the wide view, the decision making from the Padres becomes questionable. Twice now in recent years they have given around $300MM to a shortstop on a deal longer than a decade, and now neither will be playing short. Tatis, who has now been moved to right field, is under contract through 2034 and Bogaerts through 2033. Kim is set to become a free agent after 2024, as his deal has a mutual option for 2025 and those provisions are almost never triggered by both parties.

Assuming Kim reaches free agency a year from now, the club will then be looking for a solution at short for 2025 and beyond. They could always move Bogaerts again but he’ll be 32 years old by then and his abilities at that position will only be trending downwards with age. One of the club’s top prospects, Jackson Merrill, is a shortstop who reached Double-A last year. He could perhaps be a solution at that spot down the road but he is reportedly coming into camp as an outfielder, with the club trying to get creative in covering the spots vacated by trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. He could move back to short in 2025 but that might be a bit tricky if he spends this year in the outfield with the big league club instead of getting reps in Triple-A.

The Soto/Grisham deal was necessary because the club is paring back spending this winter. That’s partially a result of their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group falling apart but also connected to their extreme aggression in recent years, which includes giving a massive deal to a shortstop they didn’t really need.

Latest On Padres’ Infield Plans

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There were some rumblings last October that the Padres were considering asking Xander Bogaerts to play another position than shortstop, and manager Mike Shildt seemed to confirm that plan during an interview with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  As part of the Q&A piece, Shildt’s response to the question of Bogaerts’ position with “That’s a good question.  Right now he’s playing shortstop.”  The situation could be still somewhat speculation, as the newly-hired manager said that he had yet to talk “in earnest” with Bogaerts about the situation, but implied that the conversation would come during Spring Training.

Bogaerts played 53 games as a third baseman with the Red Sox during his first two Major League seasons, and has played a handful of games as a designated hitter.  Otherwise, Bogaerts has exclusively lined up at the shortstop position, amassing 11675 2/3 innings at the position while posting +0.8 UZR/150, -31 Outs Above Average, and -54 Defensive Runs Saved.  These metrics have been more positive in the last two seasons, however, with Bogaerts delivering +2.3 UZR/150, +8 Outs Above Average, and +1 DRS.

Questions about a possible position switch have followed Bogaerts for years, dating back to his days in Boston.  These same criticisms followed Bogaerts into the free agent market last winter, though they didn’t prevent him from landing a mega-deal in the form his 11-year, $280MM pact with San Diego.  Agent Scott Boras was insistent on marketing Bogaerts as a shortstop during his free agent push, though Bogaerts himself said “we’ll cross that bridge when we get there” last fall when asked about changing positions.

Bogaerts hinted that he’d prefer playing second base in the event of a change, which could make for a pretty smooth swap of Bogaerts at the keystone and Ha-Seong Kim moving over to shortstop.  Kim was the NL’s Gold Glove winner for utility players in 2023, as he played mostly at second base but also showed some good glovework as a part-time shortstop and third baseman.  Kim and Bogaerts trading place would certainly look like an on-paper defensive upgrade for the Padres’ infield, and while Kim is a free agent next winter, shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill is on pace to be part of the MLB roster perhaps even before 2024 is out, let alone for the 2025 campaign.  Merrill (a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport) could be the long-term answer at the position, so Bogaerts’ move to primarily second base work might be coming sooner rather than later.

Manny Machado’s near-term future is also a factor here, as Machado underwent elbow surgery in October and it isn’t yet clear when he might be ready to resume his usual spot at third base.  Shildt gave a positive update on Machado’s status, saying the All-Star infielder “is killing his offseason” preparations and that Machado is “on pace to be able to be ready offensively” so DH duty seems like a strong possibility for the start of the season.  Playing the hot corner is still somewhat up in the air, though Shildt said “he has an opportunity to start the season at third base.  He’s on target to be able to get some opportunities to play in Spring Training at third base, but I’m not gonna put any timeframe on it.”

It doesn’t sound as if Machado will miss too much time in the field, though since the Padres start their regular season with a two-game series with the Dodgers in Seoul on March 20-21, getting Machado at third base by this earlier edition of Opening Day sounds like a stretch.  Playing third by early to mid-April seems more feasible based on Shildt’s comments, though as the manager noted, it is still soon to tell.

If Machado isn’t a DH-only player for too long, utilitymen Matthew Batten and Eguy Rosario can cover third base in the interim.  Kim might become an option if Machado needs more time to be fully ready, plus Tyler Wade and Mason McCoy are in spring camp on minor league deals as further infield depth.

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