2008 Club Options

My, how things change.  Check out this post about 2008 club options, written back in April.  It’s time to alter the predictions on many of these with most of the 2007 season in the books.

Ivan Rodriguez – $13MM with a $3MM buyout.  Sounds like this will be Exercised, based on the latest reports. 

Adam Dunn – $13MM with a $0.5MM buyout.  Redleg Nation urges the Reds to pick this up, and I agree.  Then again, Dan Graziano said a month ago it’s "hard to see" the Reds exercising it.  At the least an exercise-and-trade seems in order, but then Dunn would have full no-trade protection until June 15th.  I say it’s Exercised, even if Jay Bruce is awesome.

Marcus Giles – $4MM.  No chance.  Declined.

Juan Uribe – $5MM.  This is still up in the air but I think the White Sox will move on, whether to David Eckstein or Miguel Tejada.  Declined.

Cesar Izturis – $5.45MM.  I was impressed and surprised that the Cubs didn’t give a ton of PT to Izturis just because he was the return for Greg Maddux.  I can’t see the Pirates’ new GM exercising this, in any case.  Declined.

Geoff Jenkins – $9MM.  He’s been sitting against lefties a lot, and has had an OK year.  But this seems too steep even as an exercise-and-trade. Gabe Gross is ready for regular duty, so look for Kevin Mench to be non-tendered as well.  Declined.

Bobby Abreu – $16MM with a $2MM buyout.  Exercised, as discussed earlier.

Jose Guillen – $9MM with a $0.5MM buyout.  The smart move would be to exercise this and then move on in ’09, but that won’t work because Guillen can void it and forfeit the buyout.  Which he would.  Why even have the option then?  Last we checked the Mariners were working on an extension with him.  Declined.

Shawn Green – $10MM with a $2MM buyout.  Even at an effective $8MM this is easily Declined.  Green may choose to retire if no one wants him to play regularly.

Randy Wolf – $9MM with a $0.5MM buyout.  Wolf signed a below-market deal to play in L.A. last winter; he could’ve gotten two or even three years guaranteed.  The option will definitely be Declined but Wolf hopes to return at a lower salary.

Paul Byrd – $8MM with a $0.25MM buyout.  After ’06 I thought this was an easy decline, but it’s the complete opposite given Byrd’s fine season and various struggling Indians.  Exercised. 

Kris Benson – $7.5MM with a $0.5MM buyout.  Rotator cuff surgery knocked him out this year.  Declined.

Odalis Perez – $9MM with a $1.5MM option.  Finished for the season with a knee strain.  Regardless he’s not worth $7.5MM. Declined.

Jason Isringhausen – $8MM with a $1.25MM option.  The Cards want to scrap this and give him a deal for 2008-09.  So technically it would be Declined. 

Mark Ellis – $5MM option with a $0.25MM buyout.  Ellis has had a solid year, hitting .276/.339/.437 with 17 HR in 529 ABs.  He’s also known for playing fine defense at second base.  But the A’s are cost-conscious and could fill the position internally with Donnie Murphy.  Ellis at $5MM might have some trade value given the fairly weak market for second basemen.  I’ll lean toward Exercised. 

Octavio Dotel – Player option to reach $6.1MM if he reaches 25 games finished (currently has 23).  Club may void option if he exercises it.  This is an interesting scenario.  Dotel got $5MM guaranteed last winter when he was a huge question mark.  Would he set his own value at $6.1MM?  And if does, would the Braves as well?  Dotel’s player option is like Jose Guillen’s where in all likelihood it means nothing.  My guess is that Dotel opts for the open market, hoping for a 3/18 deal on par with Danys Baez’s.  Declined.   

Steve Trachsel – $4.75MM with a $0.1MM buyout.  Normally I would say this is an easy decline.  But in this day and age, 160 innings of 4.75 ERA ball might be deemed worth it by some clubs.  Probably not though – Trax is still probably valued close to this year’s $3MM salary and wasn’t a hot commodity last winter.  Declined.   

Opinions?  Borderline players I’ve missed?