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Johan Santana Rumors: Tuesday

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 11:00pm: LENIII says that despite their public proclamations, the Yanks haven't told the Twins they're out on Johan.  Neal recommends you go to bed anyway.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 10:28: A new team is in the mix for Johan, but barely.  The Rangers talked to the Twins today about what it would take, but they're not expected to pursue it much further.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 10:05pm: Talks are expected to re-open in about an hour, after the execs have dinner.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 8:21pm: Theo Epstein expects negotiations with the Twins to carry "well into the night."  He says the Red Sox are being flexible, so it sounds like they'll hammer something out.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 7:50pm: Not much to report here.  Twins and Sox still haggling, per LENIII.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 7:09pm: Hank is sticking to his story, that the Yanks' deadline for a Santana deal has passed.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 5:02pm: All the Santana-Angels stuff is bogus, according to GM Tony Reagins.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 4:28pm: Per Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus: Santana to Boston is "all but done" with Lester, Masterson, and Kalish in the package.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 4:25pm: Stark says the Angels and Twins continue to talk Santana, with many of the youngsters earmarked for Cabrera being mentioned.  Seems the Halos have shifted gears from Cabrera to Johan even though they have no need for starters.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 4:14pm: Hey, it's been a few minutes without a Johan update.  A Red Sox source told Gordon Edes he's not buying that the Yankees are out on Santana.  I heard the exact same thing from my own Winter Meetings source - my guy says the Yanks fully expect to hear back from the Twins about a final offer later tonight.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 3:26pm: The Yankees, who rarely have kept their word lately, have closed the door on Johan talks.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 3:08pm: The Twins want to get this thing done by day's end.  700 reporters just sighed in relief. 

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 2:51pm: Per Peter Gammons, this baby is getting closer and is now a 5-for-1 deal.  The addition is outfielder Ryan Kalish.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 2:12pm: Phil Miller heard some speculation that the Twins could throw in another player on their side to make this thing work.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 2:04pm: According to Sean McAdam, the Twins will also meet with the Angels this afternoon to discuss Santana.  The Twins would want Jered Weaver and Brandon Wood for starters.  McAdam says the Red Sox and Twins haven't spoken since this morning.  Meanwhile Joe Christensen says there's lobby buzz about the Red Sox/Twins deal becoming a 5-for-1. 

Peter Abraham chimes in, saying the Yankees have made their final offer and the Twins would have to approach them now.  That's one way to frame it; Joel Sherman says it's more that the Yankees just won't get a chance to top Boston's best offer.  The Yankees left off pushing Hughes/Cabrera/Marquez/Alberto Gonzalez.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 1:15pm: ESPN Peter Gammons says the Twins are trying to decide between a 3-for-1 (Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson) or a 4-for-1 (Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson).  No contract negotiations with the Red Sox and Santana's agent have taken place yet.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 1:08pm: The Boston Globe has an update, basically saying negotiations are to resume this afternoon between the Red Sox and Twins.  It's still not known whether the Twins will take an Ellsbury package or the Lester one.  Meanwhile WFAN's Sweeny Murti expects the Red Sox to send Lester, Crisp, and two others for Johan.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 12:02pm: Jon Heyman says the Red Sox will enhance their offer one more time to get this thing done.  It still won't include both Lester and Ellsbury.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 10:13am: Not sure when this morning he wrote it, but George King still thinks the Yankees are the favorite for Johan.  Peter Abraham quotes Hank as saying the Yanks are done talking to the Twins about Santana, for now.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 9:59am: Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald has an update.  The Red Sox looked at Lester's medical records and saw no issues.  There are two different possible scenarios/packages of players still in play.  None include Ellsbury and Lester/Buchholz.  Masterson and/or Lowrie are expected to be in there one way or another.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 8:34am: LENIII is hearing the four players are Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, and Masterson - same as Gordon Edes said.

FROM 12-4-07 at 7:31am:

It was a long Monday with all the twists and turns you'd expect in the Johan Santana talks.  Here's the latest, which will surely be updated throughout the day.

The Red Sox and Twins called it a night around 2am CST, but Gordon Edes thinks the Red Sox are close and a deal could be announced this morning.  The Twins looked at Jon Lester's medical records; the Red Sox reviewed Santana's.  The supposed deal right now is Coco Crisp, Justin Masterson, Jed Lowrie, and Lester.  Not bad but it would represent a concession by the Twins.  If an agreement is reached, the Red Sox still need to pull off a contract extension.

Ed Price has a different take on Boston's offer - his source says it's Lester, Crisp, Ellsbury, and Lowrie.  It would be odd to see two center fielders included, but there you go.

Meanwhile Mark Feinsand says the Yankees are moving on to Dan Haren.  Brian Cashman will probably find equal if not bigger demands coming from Billy Beane.


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Comments

I can't believe the Yankees are going to let Johan go to the Sox because they refuse to include Ian Kennedy as the third piece. They don't have to trade Cano. They don't have to trade Joba. Johan has been the best pitcher in the world over the last 4 years and he is just entering his prime. He is only 28 years old.
Pitching wins in the post season, not hitting. How many more Red Sox titles will it take for them to realize that?

I'm a Sox fan, and what can I say... if this happens, the rich get richer. I love the Sox, but feel for other teams that have to deal with money and power like the Sox/Yankees have.

Some won't agree, but to me Lester/Masterson/Crisp/Lowrie will make Twins fans happy someday, prob not today. Us making a deal for Johan and keeping Ellsbury so awesome, but is just unfair. Go Sox!!

Good deal for the Sox. So good that it makes me think it's not true.

yeah that Sox deal looks suspect, I still like the rumored Yanks package more then that.

anyone notice that the package from the sox is garbage?

I agree, it does appear too good to be true. If I was a Twins fan, I would settle for nothing less than 2 of Ellsbury/Buchholz/Lester OR two of three of Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy.

Unfortunately if they hold out and can't trade Johan at deadline... is it better to have one of these above packages, or 2 draft picks???

I don't think that is going down. Why ask for so much from the yanks and so little from the sox?

Maybe the Yanks would have a easier time dealing if it weren't for Hank's comments.

stick with the kids, get someone off the scrap heap.

I just love how the report is that the Yankees are now moving on to Dan Haren.

WHAT DO THEY THINK BILLY BEANE IS GOING TO ASK FOR????

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that Kennedy and a bag of doughnuts (excluding the "untouchable" - the glazed and the bear claw) won't get it done.

Don't think so nparz, you don't run a successful multi-million dollar company by rejecting better offers out of spite.

I hope they over pay for Haren...he is a nice pitcher but I don't see much better then a high 3 era at best in the AL East.

I have to laugh at Yankee fans. Why do you guys feel that you know what is right for the Twins? The bottom line if this deal goes through is they value Jon Lester much higher than either Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy. I know the Twins are in love with Justin Masterson as am I and they must believe Lester and Masterson > Hughes and Kennedy.

I know in the coming weeks you guys will state all the reasons why you did not want Santana, but lets be honest you all did!

It is laughable that Brian Cashman says he won't trade prospects because they could becoming Cy Young winners on other teams. You didn't have to give up Cano or Chamberlin and you guys are going to say no!

Someone needs to call Hanky Panky out on this one. He blew up the deal because of his big mouth!

Twins fans, I will be rooting for Jon Lester like you cannot believe if he moves on. He is a class individual and will be an amazing pitcher. I have watched this kid grow and he is going to surprise alot of people!

"Lester/Masterson/Crisp/Lowrie will make Twins fans happy someday"

Well, the day Crisp is finally not on our team anymore at least. We're familiar with that one: 6/14/06 all the way baby.

From a Sox fans point of view, the Twins get Lester & Masterson who will be good starting pitchers now to within a year, Lowrie who WILL be a good shortstop and Crisp who is gold glove defense and may bat more like he did in Cleveland (.300/20 HR) in a new environment. I worry about getting 1 person in return, all be it the great Johan, because one injury and we lost 4 good prospects and have nothing to show. I heard Johan has over 900 innings on his arm, that worries me. Just chatting... bored at 900 on a Tuesday morning. lol

It really wouldn't make sense for this to go down. Smith stays his ground for this long only to develop a sudden Lester fetish and settle for the B-rate offering? There is no way that Crisp is coming to the Twins.

Not convinced the Yankees consider Haren as their best option at this point. Haren will probably cost more than Johan in . terms of prospects, as there will be more teams involved in the bidding.

And I agree the Boston offer looks suspect...but I'm just so sick of this story, I want it to be over already. Will look forward to seeing Phil Hughes take the mound next spring.

Boston better be giving up Ellsbury with Lester, otherwise they a raping the Twins. On Haren, if the Sox aren't giving up Ellsbury and Lester, and they are doing that original deal, they have driven the price down on Haren. The Yankees would have a bit more leverage, and could probably get away with something like Kennedy, Jackson, Horne/Marquez/Karstens as a third player, because I don't see Haren is worth more than that. In no way is Haren worth Phil Hughes, Haren is not an ace, but he is a very good pitcher, if he were to land with the Yankees, I think that he could be slotted in behind Wang, yes....you heard me behind Wang.

Making the Yankee rotation

Wang
Haren
Pettitte
Hughes
Chamberlain/Mussina

That is still a good starting rotation, definitely a step up from last year.

wildo05, can I as a Twins fan tell you that the Yankee offer is significantly better than the Boston offer Edes reports? For that matter supposedly Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson was on the table, and it's better than either. I don't dislike Lester, but the Twins don't need him nearly as much as Ellsbury, and Coco is a negative.

I think Edes' reported deal is wrong here; there are other reports out there, some of which suggest that something involving both Ellsbury and Lester might be happening. Maybe that's just wishful thinking, though.

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=284#comments

Lavelle E Neal III's take, by the way. I think he's more credible than the two in the main article right now, as well as less reaching.

This has to be posturing by the Twins to try to get the Yankees back in.

I agree the deal looks like garbage and is not as good a deal as the Yankees were offering.

How do the red sox pawn off a CF they want rid of (whoever said he's a .300 20 HR guy is delusional, he has yet to hit above .300 in the bigs and has a .409 career SLG%), an above average prospect who has CANCER, one real nice prospect in Lowrie and Masterson who maxes out at best as a middle of the rotation guy.

Talk about a PR problem, at least if they got Ellsbury or Hughes they'd have a big name young prospect to pimp.

I have heard that the Twins might add a prospect to get both Lester and Ellsbury into the deal. Would be a good idea I think.

Yankee fans are soo funny... Let me educate you on this deal

1. Lester - Very good 23 yr old lefty, who is 11-2 at the big league level. Can pitch in the mid 90's and has a filthy cutter projects as a low 1/high 2...

Why is he better than Hughes or Kennedy? Hughes cant stay healthy, has better stuff than Kennedy. To be honest Kennedy shouldnt even be in this conversation

2. Coco Crisp - rated as the number 2 best CF in the ML by fielding bible. Great CFer, and cheap, for spacious outfield in Minn

3. Lowrie - will probably be a stud 2nd basemen.. Could hit 20hrs and will hit over 300

4. Masterson - heavy sinker ball likened to Wang/Lowe. Doesnt exactly ahve a great 3rd pitch, but you dont need one when you have such a filthy sinker

The only reason twins fans woudl think the Yankees package is better is because they havent heard of the sox prospects.. The yankees proposal is not better than the Sox proposal... its ludicrous to think the red sox are "raping" the twins

I doubt the Twins havent heard of Bostons prospects. Maybe fans havent, but you KNOW the scouts and GM has.

People seem to be glossing over the shortstop that slugged over .500 at AA and AAA last season. While he only hit 13 HRs (everyone's favorite stat) his bested "can't miss" prospect Brandon Wood in slugging and destroyed him in OBP.

Jed Lowrie is a legit chip. I would rather have this kid as the Sox shorstop over Lugo any day of the week. Too bad the FO is stuck with Lugo @ $9 mil.

I find it amusing that so many people here think the Red Sox offer is crap when the Twins brass clearly doesn't think so. They know a lot more about the players that any of us here; if they believe it's a fair trade, don't you think their more informed opinion is the one we should be taking as reliable?

By the way, the Twins are big into Masterson because they think he projects as a lights-out setup man or closer. He does have two filthy plus pitches already, which is what most closers go with; he has some good heat that compliments his sinker nicely. If they make him a late-innings reliever he'll probably be insanely good at it.

hey twins fans wake up.... you better deal with the yankees b/c with the red sox you are not dealing from a good position.

if the yankees really step out of this you are in big trouble cuz you know the only thing the red sox wanted was to keep this guy away from the yankees.

now if they know the yankees are not in it they dont have to offer an atrocity of prospects for santana.

do you think theo and cashman dont know anything.... they know the twins HAVE to trade johan.... its ridicoulous that thing about you can still keep him.... you know you cant affor him because you have the cheapest owner in baseball who does not give a sh*t about his city and his team.

the bitterness warms my heart

The Scott Boras Corporation recently signed two new clients - Jacoby Ellsbury and Micah Owings. Seems insignificant now, but wait 4-5 years. did anyone catch this, this could be a big reason for the twins backing off on ellsbury

Is there a crack epidemic going on here MLBTR.com?

The notion that Lester/Crisp/Masterson is a better deal than Hughes/Cabrera/? and whoever is absurd. Only somebody smoking CRACK would believe it.

First of all, stop pimping Lester's 11-2 record. Wins are the least valuable statistic in determining how good a pitcher is.

Hughes is superior to Lester on almost all levels: Strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, H/9, etc.

Crisp and Cabrera would be a wash except for the fact that Cabrera is FIVE YEARS YOUNGER than Crisp - and cheaper.

Masterson is projected to be a 4/5 starter and might wind up doing middle relief.

If Theo can get Smith to be that much of a sucker to pull the trigger on the deal than Epstein deserves to be called a genius.

Yankees fan are so moronic.

Lets break the deal down:

Lester vs Hughes. I would say it is a toss up. Hughes may have more potential, but Lester has already succeeded at the MLB level.

Coco vs Melky: I would give it to Melky just because of the salary, but Coco is slightly better.

Lowrie and masterson vs any yankee prospect not named Joba: This is why the Sox have the better offer. Kennedy has less stuff than David Pauley. Mastersen will be a good 8th inning guy and Lowrie a good middle infielder. The Yankees to match this would need to offer Jackson and Horne


Note (I am not a Red Sox fan, i just hate Yankee fans for there moronic comments)

Irrespective of the Yankees offer, this package is a joke.

I don't know. This seems... a little suspect. I do think that Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson is better than Hughes/Cabrera/random third dude, but it seems genuinely surprising to me that they didn't prefer Ellsbury.

I guess we'll see, but if this is true, I'm a little disappointed. Not TOO disappointed, mind, in that Johan didn't go to New York and the Twins managed to haul a good starting pitcher, a good pitching prospect, a decent center fielder, and a decent shortstop in one haul... but, yeah, would have preferred Ellsbury.

Good work on the deadline Hank! How's that workin out for you now?

I just don't understand why the Yanks had to put a deadline on this. Just keep the offer out there and eventually Minny will realize neither team will improve their offer and they'll have to choose which one they like. Maybe they'll still pick Boston's offer, but they'd at least be giving themselves a chance.

As for Johnbuckformvp's post, Hughes has a higher ceiling than Lester. It's not a toss up, but it's also not as big of a gap as Yankee fans would like to believe. Coco vs Melky, you're right on. Lowrie/Masterson is better than the 3rd player in the deal, but Kennedy is better than Pauley, he'll be a solid #3/4 starter for the Yanks. If they included Kennedy, this deal probably would've gone their way, but they have insisted on a lesser prospect.

Crasnik says:

“According to two sources at the winter meetings, Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury has dropped agent Joe Urbon and is now represented by Boras."

I think we just saw why this deal changed.

i love how yankee haters think our prospects suck just because they're yankees. you guys are just as biased as the rest of us, just at the other end of the spectrum. if our prospects were on the Royals or Nats you'd be drooling all over yourselves

People who say this is a bad deal are missing the broader picture.

Throw out Cabrera and Crisp - both are virtually irrelevant to the deal, so to speak. The deal is Lester/Lowrie/Masterson vs. Hughes/unnamed junk prospect. Is Hughes better than Lester? Maybe, maybe not. But the combo of Lowrie and Masterson is certainly better than some unnamed prospect for the Yankees bargain bin of minor league players.

As a lifelong Twins fan I'm really starting to develop some respect for Bill Smith here. He steps into a TREMENDOUSLY difficult and sensitive situation as the Twins GM. We just lost Torii Hunter, the face of our franchise, to free agency. We are faced with the harsh reality that we cannot compete for Johan Santana and will have to deal him. We open a new stadium in 2 years, which we had to battle the state legislature tooth and nail on for the past decade, amidst this exodus of star players and hometown fans frustrated with ownership. What does he do? Extends Joe Nathan, presumably to shop him, but he's still a fan favorite. Pulls the trigger on the Delmon Young deal, and a sweet deal it is. Now he's taking it to the Yankees, calmly and shrewdly negotiating while Hank Steinbrenner hems and haws and practically reveals his entire hand from the beginning, and now he's set to extract both Lester and Ellsbury from the Sox (if you think we'll settle for less, you're fooling yourself). He's shown a lot of class in dealing with a delicate PR situation on the homefront, and also in dealing with reports of Santana not waiving his NTC, and Steinbrenner shooting off about a deadline. Let Steinbrenner shoot his mouth off, he's not setting the market here, Bill Smith and his BIG OLD BALLS OF STEEL are setting the market for the best pitcher in baseball. When it is all said and done, the Yanks have to look in the mirror and live with the fact that they let Ian Kennedy hold up a deal for the greatest pitcher in the universe, and let him go to the Red Sox. Good luck competing for the Wild Card for the next 10 years Yankees.

theMATTador - sure Lester is 11-2 at the big league level, but it helps that he gets above average run support. Look at the rest of his career stats and they aren't as appealing.

ERA: 4.68
K/BB: 110/74
WHIP: 1.57
BAA: .278

I really don't see what is all that appealing about him. Can someone enlighten me?

yeah most of those stats youve jsut stated are inflated by the fact that he HAD CANCER for a half year... Hes 23, is a lefthander, and throws hard... he could stand to gain some control, but his minor league numbers suggest he has that ability... Hes just as good as hughes, just not nearly as hyped....

Whens the last time Hughes finished off a world series?

Lester is one of the very few players about whom I would say the stats lie.

Lester was mishandled; he was brought up too young and not ready in 2006 when the Red Sox had a ton of injuries and had no other options. He shouldn't have seen the majors for the first time until late 2007 at the earliest.

Lester still handled himself fairly well in '06, at age 22. Then he started having back pain, and it affected his performance. It went on for a bit, until he went in for some tests and they found the low-level lymphoma (cancer).

Lester then missed almost an entire season getting treatment for the cancer. He underwent chemotherapy, and was declared cancer-free in late 2006-early 2007.

He pushed himself fairly hard in training, and returned before anyone really thought he would; the result of that was that Lester wasn't at full strength or full stamina when he made the majors again in 2007.

By the end of 2007 Lester STILL hadn't regained all his weight or strength from before he was diagnosed with cancer. He's undergoing some intensive training to get back to where he was - that, coupled with his being more experienced, means that he should return to the form he showed before the mishandling began; Lester was Eastern League Pitcher of the Year in 2005, and was a top-5 minor league SP.

If you think Crisp is irrelevant, you've obviously never watched Ron Gardenhire manage. Coco under his control is a nightmare.

cmon the red sox are not giving lester and ellsbury.... you can be sure of that.... the only way that may happen is if no other prospect is included. so a lester/elssbury for santana trade may be the only realistic possibility i see of getting both of them.

you know why im sure of that.... b/cause quite simply the sox do not need santana.... he would be a luxury to have but it is not a neccessity so dont expect them to sell the farm for him....

This is NUTS !!!

Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, and Masterson for Santana ?????

I know we hate the Yankees but this is INSANE !!!

A comparison
(assuming the Yanks 3rd/4th prospect and Lowire and Masterson are a wash and ranked equal for argument sake)

Hughes (I think we all agree is more highly rated by all the BB geaks and experts) than Lester

Melky (better arm, equal bat) makes $432,400
Crisp (better glove, equal bat) signed theough 2009 for $15.5 Mil ...... 15.5 MIL !!!! through 2009 !!!!!!

Can somone, anyone, LOGICALLY explain to me how this deal is better than the Yanks deal (player-wise and MORE importantly FINANCIALLY) ???????????????????????

howie123: "A comparison
(assuming the Yanks 3rd/4th prospect and Lowire and Masterson are a wash and ranked equal for argument sake)"

I think that's where you're mistaken. Lowrie and Masterson are real prospects. The Yankees were just offering us a body for their third guy (and I never heard anywhere that they were at any time willing to part with a fourth).

As far as the money goes, I have to think either a) Boston ponys up some of the cash, or b) we move Crisp by the trade deadline next year.

"When was the last time Hughes finished off a world series?"

What in the hell does that have to do with his stats? Or Lester's stats? Or anyone's stats? Lester didn't propel the Sox into the World Series, and it's not like they would have lost without him. If comments like that are what you are bringing to the table, then don't even bother.

I understand he had cancer, my roomate is a Red Sox fan so I know all about it. I'm just saying that from what I've seen at the ML level I havn't been impressed. Who's to say that he never regains the form he once had in the minors, you don't know. You can't ignore his career stats that I bring up just because they don't support your arguement, when you're sitting there quoting the career stats of his that do support your arguement.

howie123, Crisp makes $10.5 million through 2009, not 15.5m (4.75 in 2008, 5.75 in 2009). And Melky will be arbitration-eligible for 2009, meaning he could earn anywhere from $4m up; if his 2008 is a strong one, it could go as high as 6-7 million.

crisp is not due 15.5 million... he is due 10.5 over the next two years

Hey Twinstapir, why do you keep making weird comments about Crisp having played for the Twins? Coco Crisp and Tony Batista are not the same person. If you are making some type of abstract comparison about them both being dead weight then okay, but Crisp never played for the Twins, ever.

Howie that's where you're wrong. Masterson and Bowden trump any one prospect the Yankees were currently offering, and that's the key to the deal. Hughes is a better pitcher than Lester and Crisp and Melky are essentially a wash. Coco has a better glove, Melky a better arm. Crisp can't hit as well, but Melky's hitting stats are inflated by the Yankee lineup. He was the only "breather" in the lineup, so he was seeing a lot of pitches he wouldn't normally see.

The sticking point is th third/fourth prospects. The Yankees declared their next five or so best prospects off limits. Masterson and Lowrie are much more valuable than some throw in. Their value raises the overall value over Hughes, because essentially, he's all the Twins would be getting. And if Hughes got hurt, they essentially get back nothing. They need another solid prospect or two.

@ theMATTador

Do you really think that us Yankee fans are that stupid, maybe some are but I'm not. I love researching farms systems, and I know alot about Boston's, almost as much as I know about the Yankees.

1. Lester is not as good as you make him out to be. Yes he is a lefty, yes he is young, yes he is 11-2, but you failed to mention the most important thing, his ERA, which is 4.68 for his career. Also you failed to mention that he walks about 4-5 per nine, but I will give him a bit of a break because he is young. His biggest problem is HR, he gave up 10 in 70 innings, that is alot. Is he better than Hughes, no, is he better then Kennedy, probably.

2. You can't really write anything about Crisp that is positive, because it is obvious that every Red Sox fan would rather have Ellsbury. So Melky is over Crisp because he costs less, is just as valuable, and is much younger.

3. What I can tell is yes, he looks to hit for some power, but 20 HR a season is a little much, I think he will end up being around 13-18, somewhere in that range. Not that that is bad, but it he isn't Hank Aaron like you say. He is also (from what I have read) a below average fielder, as well as baserunner. He could be a decent shortstop/2B for the Twins, but he is not an all-star, BTW he will probably hit .275-.285 in MLB, not over .300 (maybe once or twice in his prime.

4. Now Masterson is an interesting case, he has put up some good numbers, but I don't see why the Twins would want him, Bowden would be a better choice. You cannot compare his sinker to anyone elses right now, as it hasn't been seen on the major league level, but it could be effective....but not for the Twins. THEY PLAY ON ASTROTURF. Why in God's name do they want a sinker baller, unless they are planning on keeping him in the minors until 2010 when they move off that stupid surface. Masterson will also have to lower his ERA a bit before he can move up another level.

In conclusion I think the Red Sox gave the Twins more quantity, while the Yankees want to deal with more quality, though they are unwilling to give up that 3rd quality player. As of now, I give Boston's deal the slight edge, but I figured I would correct some of the mistakes you made.

Yes, New Guy, I'm comparing Crisp and Batista. Though a better comparison might be Crisp and late Cristian Guzman. Either way, a type of player we've had way too much of, thank you.

After re-reading your comments, twinstapir, I realize that I need much more sleep. I misunderstood basically everything you said to the point where I thought you were literally confusing Crisp and Batista. My bad.

The Twins and Red Sox are smoking crack if they think Lester and Ellsbury are better than Hughes and Cabrera.
As for the Twins demands for a third player like Horne, Jackson, or Kennedy ... perhaps they've moved on to chasing the dragon.

As a relative newcomer I'll say this site could really, really use a higher level of decorum.

Every post doesn't have to have some insipid ad hominem attack against fans of team x or team y. Every Red Sox prospect isn't the second coming etc. etc.

Grow up kids. There are some people here I really like hearing from, but damn if you guys don't act like a bunch of last call drunk truck drivers blindly supporting only your team and calling everyone who disagrees with you "stupid."

I'm guessing the age bracket here is pretty young, but still. Tim puts out some damn good info and it is tarnished and sullied by some of you goofs.

PS - Trading Santana for what the Red Sox offer is like putting an outdoor stadium in a cold-weather state ... just stupid.

Yankman27, see my post above about Lester's stats.

Lowrie had 68 XBH in 2007; that would have ranked him 7th in the MAJORS among SS. Most of them (47) were doubles; that's because he hasn't bulked up yet like a lot of players do once they reah the majors. He's projected to develop into his power and translate some of those doubles to HR, so 20/year isn't a stretch. His defense right now is about average; he's also only 23 and has plenty of time to develop his defensive skills. He's only had 2 1/2 pro seasons, after all. He should probably spend one more year in the minors, but he could be league-average defensively right now.

RE: Masterson, the Twins like him because they see him as a potential lights-out closer or setup man; He's already got two plus pitches.

Uh, Tim... do you mean "The TWINS looked at Lester's medical records and saw no issues"?

All right, according to Silverman, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson is still on the table. Why you'd even consider Lester/Crisp over that I don't have a clue. Come on Billy, make the right choice.

Wow. Seems like the Twins got greedy and tried to get Hughes AND Kennedy. Now they will probably only get Lester, Coco, and 2 decent but not great prospects.

Twins lose big time if they except this shitty offer.

Here are the top 10 players under 25 years old for the yankees. This is ranked by Baseball prospectus.

1. Philip Hughes, RHP
2. Joba Chamberlain, RHP
3. Ian Kennedy, RHP
4. Austin Jackson, OF
5. Jose Tabata, OF
6. Alan Horne, RHP
7. Dellin Betances, RHP
8. Jesus Montero, C
9. Melky Cabrera, OF
10. Andrew Brackman, RHP

Now here are the Sox top 10.

1. Clay Buchholz, RHP
2. Jon Lester, LHP
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
4. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
5. Justin Masterson, RHP
6. Jed Lowrie, SS
7. Ryan Kalish, OF
8. Michael Bowden, RHP
9. Lars Anderson, 1B
10. Nick Hagadone, LHP

So not only is BP ranking Lester above ellsbury, but the Twins would get 3 players from the sox top 6 under 25 years old. The yanks are only offering one of their top 8 players.

really minny fans what are you thinking???? you have no leverage here.... its not like you are trading johan because you want to but because you have to.... so stop being greedy and be content with whatever they are giving you b/c you are not gonna get much more. i feel for you for having that piece of sh*t owner but thats the way it is.

i will be more than happy to see johan stay put but knowing thats not gonna happen i just hope he doesnt end up in NY unless it takes like joba, hughues, kennedy cano and melky.

Tyler, to be fair you don't know who were included in the mid-level prospect name list Yanks offered to twins. This 4 player sox offer may be worse than hughes,kennedy,cabrera but could be better than what Yanks offered before the "deadline".

gemf89 -- No. We don't have to trade Johan.

Bear in mind that if we don't trade Johan Santana, he's starting for us for another year. Between that and getting back Liriano, it means we contend in '08, plain and simple.

There are worse things in the world than having to "settle" for another year of having Johan Santana on your starting staff.

@ metafrantic

Sorry to break it to you buddy, but there is a difference between the minors and the majors. You cannot use this as any piece of evidence of him being the "7th" best shortstop in the bigs right now. It is hard to compare them because if you wanna argue this, Josh Barfield was the best 2B in 2005. Hitters IMO are a little harder to predict for the majors than pitchers. The reason being, you know what a pitcher can bring to the table, 3-4 good pitches or whatever. They will usually easily translate to the bigs, they will just have to tweak a few things, but the pitches are still there. Hitting is another thing, it is all about timing and adjusting to the pitchers/pitches. They will see alot more good pitches in the MLB, therefor it will be much harder to hit. That is why some guys who are great in the minors suck in the majors. I'm not saying Lowrie will suck, I'm saying it is hard to tell if he is the real deal or not, I'm certainly not convinced. If he hits 20 HR only playing in AAA, I will be convinced he is above average, until then NO. I was just trying to make the point that you can no way use AA and AAA stats to compare a player to a major leaguer. I used Josh Barfield as one of several hundred examples of why you can't do this, look up his stats if you don't know what I'm talking about.

Bill Smith, please HOLD firm for now, BE PATIENT. As a Twins fan I'm PLEADING, do not trade Johan for COCO FREAKIN' CRISP. This is the best pitcher in baseball, by far. Hold out for Lester & Ellsbury + Lowrie/Masterson, or nothing at all. The Sox don't need Santana, they are lowballing us because the Yanks "deadline" has passed and they are posturing like they are out of the deal. Anyone who thinks the Yanks are out of this is an idiot. You really think they'll be content to let Santana walk to Boston for Lester/Crisp + prospects, competing for the Wild Card for the next decade and having to face the 1,2 punch of Beckett and Santana in the playoffs every year? I think not. Smith needs to let the Yanks inquire about Haren or Bedard, and let Billy Beane's unrealistic demands drive up the price for Santana without us doing anything. HOLD FIRM and the Yanks will come crawling back and offer Hughes, Cabrera, and Kennedy.

I am a life long Twins fan, and I am just wondering why in the world we would be opting for Coco Crisp in a deal when the possibility of Jacoby Ellsbury is there? Makes absolutely no sense to me.

yankman27, I KNOW you can't compare minor league stats to majors; that's not what I was trying to do. I was simply pointing out that Lowrie does have a lot of XBH, and I couldn't find a list of league leaders in XBH for the minor leagues.

It's true that it's hard to predict what hitters will do in the majors; I would say it's just as hard with pitchers, but it doesn't really matter, either way it's damned hard. But there is a recognized pattern of hitters with high XBH totals in the minors bulking up once they reach the majors and turning long fly balls that used to be doubles into HR.

Of course all of that is pure speculation - just as it's pure speculation on Hughes or Lester or Masterson or Kennedy or Buchholz, since neither has actually put together great ML numbers yet. But the speculation on Lowrie is that he'll develop power and be a 20-25 HR guy.

Ed Price is a twit. Ellsbury AND Crisp?

Mr. Abraham, what exactly does over but not dead means? I hope Twins either keep Santana or get it done with Sox so I don't hear one more thing from Hanky.

Hanky, your ass can only do one thing at a time. You can either think or talk with your ass, but not both.

First I totally agree with you PrimeTime, I'm not sold on Jed Lowrie.

The Red Sox keep changeing the package when they put Ellsbury in it, not a straight trade off between Lester/Ellsbury. It's coming down to where the Twins are trying to get everything checked out with the current players so they can then try getting Ellsbury or someone else in the package.

I really don't believe were that serious on the current package (Lester, Lowrie, Masterson, Crisp). I think the Twins are trying to scare the Yankees, and like I said before getting everything checked as far as medical records go so they can start messing with the current package, mixing other prospects in and out. Hopefully they're still focused on getting Ellsbury in.

I also don't think Ellsbury is good enough to be the main focus of the package (just my opinion though). The reason they want Lester is that him and Papelbon were considered equal prospects when they came up, so that shows some potential that Lester has. Expect a big bounce back this year for him. I also think Hughes is better than Lester/Bucholtz too though, so it's gonna be fun to see what pans out.

Here's what I think from a Twins fan perspective:
1) Melky + Hughes + mid level minor leaguer is not enough. I'd rather keep Johan for the year, possibly sign him (10% chance) or take the 2 compensation picks (which may turn out to be better than Hughes + Melky).
2) Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. This deal is OK but not great. It plugs all of the Twins' holes except for 3B and DH. If the Sox agree to pay some of Coco's salary I may do it. Take Crisp out and put in Ellsbury and it's a deal.


I think the Twins are thinking along the lines of 2010. Let's say Johan is still a 20 game winner at that point and Lester is a 14 game winner. Will Crisp, Lowrie and Masterson make up for those 6 games compared to the alternatives? I think it's likely.

On the other hand, the Sox are not just trying to win 95 games. They are trying to win the World Series. In that case, Johan is much more valuable to the Sox because Johan/Becket is about as sure of a bet as you can get in a series. At the end of the day, I think *a* deal makes sense for both teams. The question is whether it will include Ellsbury and Lester. I could see it going either way.

Twins fans are the losers in this whole deal but we are used to it. We don't have the YES or NESN networks. We don't have a market of 10 million people. If MLB salaries continue where they are headed, the league will become a joke. We have to watch hall of fame players walk out the door. The biggest joke that I am hearing is Carlos f'in Silva possibly getting $10M/year from another team. That will be a sign of the apocalypse.

PrimeTimeKlein, according to the article linked above:

"The Red Sox received a call from the Twins late Monday night after Minnesota’s talks with the Yankees broke down"

The Twins went to the Red Sox, not the other way around. The Red Sox aren't "lowballing" the Twins; they simply left their previous offers on the table, and the Twins decided that a deal was there.

I honestly don't think the Twins ever thought that the Red Sox's offers were BAD... they were just trying to get even more out of the Sox, or out of the Yankees, which makes perfect sense. But when the Yankees seemed to pull out and the Red Sox weren't relenting, the Sox still had the same offer out there, and the Twins admitted that it was acceptable - not "spectacular, blow-us-away", but acceptable.

heres a question

how is crisp/lowrie/masterson/lester more valuable than hughes/melky/horne/jackson????

maybe its more valuable to the twins for what they are looking for, but in terms of player value?

Melky > Coco
Hughes >>>>>>>>>>>>Lester (and if you want to do Lester/Kennedy, i would say even, maybeeeeeee a slight edge to lester)


i still don't see why the Twins woudl want Coco, if i were Bill Smith, I would put in Ellsbury immediatly or call the trade off.......they wanted Kennedy so bad, and they want Ellsbury so bad......Why would they turn down the Yankees w/out Kennedy and not turn down the Red Sox w/out Ellsbury?

Ellsbury replacement would be Coco and one of the prospects......Ellsbury is a better part to it if you ask me

Kennedy's replacement is Horne/Jackson....which I would say is equal, or possibly even better


I'm sorry, but the Twins are getting robbed big time

They wanted 2 of Lester/Ellsbury/Buchholz and seem to now only want 1

NorthStar7, that's a fair assessment, except that if the Sox removed Crisp and added Ellsbury they would be completely screwing themselves; they've already got 3 of their top 6 under-25 players in the deal: Lester (2), Masterson(5), and Lowrie (6). Ellsbury's #3. That's just too much.

That's a big part of why the Sox are refusing to give 2 of Buchholz/Lester/Ellsbury; those are their BEST 3 under-25's, ranked higher even then Pedroia. 2 of the best 3 for ANY player is too much.

mike923: the Twins don't only want one of Lester/Ellsbury/Buchholz now, but they know they're only going to GET one. The Red Sox aren't relenting about that.

And I don't know why you're talking about hughes/melky/horne-or-jackson... that deal was never on the table. The Yankees flat-out said that with Hughes/Melky, horne or jackson could NOT be the third prospect in the deal. crisp/lowrie/masterson/lester is more valuable because it's actually a deal that was offered to them.

Meta,

I meant to say Horne and Jackson....and yes that was part of it when the Twins said that if they don't get Kennedy, they would want Horne AND Jackson (sorry i said Or, i meant And)

but again, the Twins would be stupid to get Coco over Ellsbury, this is much worse than the trade they orginally wanted

If i was a Twins fan, I would not be happy....Carl Pohald makes the Steinbrenners look poor when it comes to money, if he wants to win as much as the Steinbrenners do, i don't get why he wouldn't want arguably the best pitcher in baseball


But MetaFrantic, you have to admit that this is a steal big tiem for Boston....sure they do not need Santana, but if all they are giving up is a good (not great pitcher) and an average CF, and 2 prospects, it is a steal

metafrantic, I think we are probably to the point in the discussion where the Sox and Twins are at. The question is which team will blink?

You could argue that the Sox don't have to make a move and the Twins do. I still don't buy that. If we keep Santana and Liriano comes back to form, the Twins will not be a push over and will contend for a playoff spot. We get our two compensation picks and move on.

The temptation for the Sox to cave has to be huge. The balance of power would be decisively swung in the Red Sox favor.

Ironically, I think the Santana trade makes even more sense for the Yankees......but the deadline has passed so I guess not.

I keep saying it: Lester is still considered the Red Sox #2 most impressive under-25 player, behind only Buchholz. When he and Papelbon were coming up together, Lester was considered the better prospect. He has the potential to be great, and is now primed for his first full ML season. He will be better than "good" eventually.

Masterson and Lowrie are the Red Sox's #5 and #6 under-25 players, respectively. The Sox are offering 3 OF THEIR TOP 6 YOUNG PLAYERS. How is that a steal? The Sox are giving up 17 very cheap seasons of good young players plus 3 cost-controlled years of Crisp. The Twins are giving up ONE YEAR of the best pitcher in baseball. The Sox will also be ponying up a crapload of money in the deal. They're giving up a LOT.

And the Twins aren't getting Crisp over Ellsbury: they are getting Crisp + Lester over Ellsbury. Lester is about the same value (prospect-wise) as Ellsbury; but a good SP is more rare and more expensive.

Honestly, the Twins fans seem to be over-valuing Ellsbury! I'm a Sox fan and I like him a lot, but seriously - he's just as unproven as any of the prospects out there. He only has 116 ML AB. He projects very well - but so does Lester.

Northstar7. I don't think that the Twins have to trade Santana; personally I'd love to see their team with Santana/Liriano, all their young pitching talent, and a decent hitter (Young) now in the lineup. They could definitely compete, and I'd love to see it.

But I don't think the Sox are tempted to cave. They are very, very high on Lester, and if they keep him he'll be a strong addition to their rotation; he would probably be their #5 in 2008, so there would be little pressure on him and he could spend the year developing further.

What I WANT to happen is for the Twins to keep Santana next year. I like the Sox team as it is, and their pitching is so deep it's sick.

Not to mention that after 2008 Santana would be a free agent, and the Sox could try for him and only give up money.

Plus.. have you SEEN the free agent SP class for after 2008? Currently there's Burnett, Garland, Harden, Lowe, P. Martinez, Mussina, Penny, Sabathia, Santana, Sheets, Smoltz... Holy CRAP it's unbelievable. Even if half these guys resign ahead of time it's still amazingly deep in quality. Next year's offseason might eclipse this one in terms of blockbuster over-the-top way-too-much-money signings.

You are right Meta -- there is a Ellsbury fixation here in MN. If he didn't get called up and have a few good games in the Series, there wouldn't be this public perception. It sounds like this is true in Boston as well though and that it may be a PR problem if he is moved.

Who knows maybe Ellsbury will be the next Mark Lemke...

To Red Sox and Yankee fans,

don't you think it would be best to go after him when he is a free agent, being that 2 of the teams starters (schilling/wakefield, mussina/pettitte) could be gone leaving an open spot or 2 in the rotation........it sucks to give away young players to get a guy for 1 specific season instead of waiting 1 additional season to get him w/out losing anybody?

@metafrantic:

Lets not forget Teixeira on the hitters side.

Or that the Yankees will be shedding 80 million dollars in payroll

Or that the Red Sox will shed Manny (if option is declined) and Shilling.

It's going to be a blockbuster.

Man, I wish people would realize how silly they sound when they say things like "We better get so and so from the Sox." Or "We better not make that trade." Who is "we?" Are you affiliated with the team? You realize that if you are on the radio and say "we" they cut you off right away right? I want to take people's opinions seriously, but man. . .

@minke923:

Read up on game theory.

:)

Ya know, this thread is really, really interesting. We have a bunch of logical, thought out posts showing up from time to time while everyone is completely ignoring them and instead just going back into the “But Hughes + Melky is better” or “but that’s not enough from the BoSox” rants…

These are the things to remember here everyone:

A) The Twins will need a LH starter if Johan is traded ~ their next highest Leftie would I guess be Duensing, a AA/AAA backend-type starter from last year. This makes Lester a bit more attractive.

B) The Twins don’t need pitching ~ they need hitting. So even if you feel that Hughes + Melky + B-Prospect is a superior offer, it doesn’t mean it’s a better offer to them! The RedSox offer gives them a CF (that is no worse than Melky, and who has atleast shown much better in his career) and a great looking SS prospect on top of two pitching arms, one of them being very high-end.

C) The Twins are insisting for Hughes + Kennedy from the Yankees solely because of the fact that they will be able to trade Kennedy (or an inhouse comparable) for a capable hitting prospect. They wouldn’t be able to trade “B-Prospect” for anything that good though, so Lowrie instead of B-Prospect is the difference maker here…


And just because it’s the one that makes me chuckle inside:
D) About two weeks ago the Yankees went to the Twins about Johan ~ he wasn’t available. Now after its learned that they might be having a hard time resigning him, the Yankees were back at the door with more inquires. At this point they have become impatient though, and that impatience is just about to lead to a previously uninterested BoSox team ends up with the best pitcher in baseball. Yanks want him, cant be patient, and end up sending him to the BoSox because of it. I must say, pretty interesting way of conducting business on Hank and his Hank’ees…

henry, that's too much for me! lol

if i am the red sox, i would do it if it's coco, and i would not do it if it was ellsbury

So the Sox are just increasing quantity?

At this point wouldn't the Twins tell them to take all the crap off the table and ask for Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie?

If the Angels don't land Cabrera, surely they're in the mix too?

If you could guarantee that he would become a FA then yes you wait. Unfortunately there are NO guarantees.

To make it more complicated, if he hits FA his price will go up. You have teams today that want him but can't put a package together that would be acceptable to the Twins. Right now the deal is really between the Yanks and Red Sox. What happens when the Angels, Dodgers, Mets and others enter the bidding process?

As far as the 08 class let's take a look at the names:

Burnett - most interesting name on the list - good stuff but injury nightmare
Garland - solid back of the rotation pitcher
Harden - DL
Lowe - another middle of the rotation kind of guy
Martinez - old, injured, can't count on him
Mussina - going to be forced out of the Yankee rotation by 3 rookies
Penny - solid but the Dodgers really want to extend
Sabbathia - the real wildcard. Extended, traded?
Santana - will be extended or traded
Sheets - major injury risk, also might be extended/traded
Smoltz - Brave for life

Next years crop is good but just like this years crop the elites will most likely not be available. You will have some high risk/high reward types (Martinez/Sheets) and then some inning eaters (Garland, Lowe). I'll bet anything that not a single top of the rotation pitcher makes it to FA.

im so sick of johan rumors.

please stop reposting to the top of the page with this thread.

According to Heyman, Hank says the Skanks will "probably" stick to their deadline.

BULLLLLLLLLLLLLSHITTTTTTTTTTT

alright, if this trade goes through, the entire AL might as well just sell there best players to the red sox, yankees, or NL teams and start rebuilding so they can become competitive in 3 or 4 years.

So basically the best team in baseball is about to acquire the best pitcher in baseball without having to surrender their top position or top pitching prospect. Are the Twins retarded, or do they just not care about competitive balance?

Any deal with Santana is gonna involve an extension. The Twins owe it to competitive balance to DEMAND Buchholz AND Ellsbury in any trade. This isn't Mark Buehrle they're trading for here.

According to a friend of mine he read on a message board that WEEI has said a deal is complete and the Red Sox have began talking about a contract extension

@skelley:

Its the way things have always been. Remember the Schilling trade?

Arizona wanted Soriano AND Nick Johnson from the Yanks.

The Sox got Schilling for Casey Fossum and crap.

Why do people complain about the Santana trade and rumors? This is easily the most exciting thing to happen in MLB in years. Well, I guess A-rod opting out was pretty exciting/crazy for a while.

If you don't like Santana rumors, how can you be a hot stove junkie? He's the hottest thing cooking!

And Twins fans should be elated that Santana is gone. Even if the Twins have to settle for a package that infuriates fans, I would just be happy that they get more than two draft picks. I have been advocating a Santana trade for almost two years.

The only way they can make the trade better is by adding Ellsbury. Either that or add Lars Anderson and Michael Bowden instead of CoCo Krispies.

@ skelley

The Twins have NO leverage here. Yeah, he's the best pitcher in the league, but he's also going to be a FA in 10 months. They won't get him to sign an extension, so they either deal him, or take the draft picks next year. They would be foolish to take the draft picks over any of the rumored deals.

"Are the Twins retarded, or do they just not care about competitive balance?

Any deal with Santana is gonna involve an extension. The Twins owe it to competitive balance to DEMAND Buchholz AND Ellsbury in any trade. This isn't Mark Buehrle they're trading for here."

This is close to the silliest thing I've read on this site in the past year. Definitely top three.

The Twins do not wear a second hat as an agent of the MLB Commissioner's Office. They are simply a team within that organizational structure. Your position is effectively that, in the interest of seizing the reins and playing Competitive Balance Police, this smaller-market team should make outrageous demands that are not in line with the market for Santana's service, thereby torpedoing any chance they have at salvaging some sort of return beyond a year of Santana and some draft picks.

Sorry to be the harbinger of common sense, but Santana is not worth $25M per year over five or six years PLUS the sacrifice of two top prospects who will be cost-controlled during that same time period. In terms of actual cost in dollars AND cost in talent/value surrendered for the "privilege" to pay Santana those dollars, his annual cost will far exceed A-Rod's.

Furthermore, the offers currently on the table from both the Yankees and Red Sox project to far exceed the value of one year of Santana plus two hit-or-miss shots in the draft.

"According to a friend of mine he read on a message board that WEEI has said a deal is complete and the Red Sox have began talking about a contract extension"

Yeah my cousin's ex-girlfriend's roommate heard that from her hairstylist's mom. The final trade was Santana, Mauer, and Young for Crisp and Lester.

This just in: Thanks to the internet the friend of a friend story has become obsolete and has been replaced by the my friend read it on a message board story. Statisticians are baffled that there actually is a type of story that is less likely to be true than the friend of a friend story. More on this development at the top of the hour ...

Paul,

I was listening to WEEI on the subject. They did not say that a deal was in place and contract negotiations were taking place. Dale & Holley simply speculated that because (1) the Twins reportedly had access to Lester's medical reports; and (2) both camps have been quiet, that the Twins MAY have said "O.K., go ahead and talk to his agent."

It was idle speculation.

"If you could guarantee that he would become a FA then yes you wait. Unfortunately there are NO guarantees."

And then:

"Santana - will be extended or traded"

If there's no guarantee about him becoming a FA, there's also no guarantee that he'll be extended or traded.

It's true that elite SP don't reach FA often any more. My point was more that there will be plenty of opportunities for the Red Sox to sign another veteran if they want to...not as good as Santana, but a great deal cheaper.

The Red Sox do NOT need Santana. Period. There current starting rotation is Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Lester, Buchholz and Wakefield as the 6th man. The year after that, Schilling and Wakefield leave, but Beckett/Matsuzaka/Lester/Buchholz is an unbelievable core, esp. eith the younger guys all with another year under their belts. Plus they have Masterson, Bowden, Bard, Haigwood, Richardson, Goodson, Beazley, Hagadone... All SP who should reach the majors within the next 5 years, and there's more I didn't even name.

Honestly, if teh Sox stand pat now, they've got a legit chance at the WS. Then next off-season they can sign some stopgap to be their #5 for a year or two until they're comfortable with Bard, Masterson or Bowden. Of course there's always injury risk, but that can be covered with a cheap filler or two.

Thanks for the massive strawman, Dunkin Donuts. It makes it easier to not have to reply to a word you said.

And yes, Santana is worth Ellsbury (who isn't nearly as amazing a prospect as people would have us all believe anyway), and Buchholz. Both are fucking prospects. PROSPECTS...being dealt for the best pitcher in baseball. I really don't care when he becomes a free agent.

And guess what? If Liriano becomes healthy, the Twins have all the reason in the world to keep Santana and become instantly competitive once again.

You're also probably the only one saying Santana is looking to get paid $25 million a year. He's going to be getting less than that. Mark my words.

That's a no-brainer. You take Masterson, Ellsbury, and Lowrie.

Seriously. Lester's upside is fairly limited. Ellsbury (even if I'm not huge on him) is the obvious package to take.

It almost entirely depends on what the Twins think of Jason Pridie, doesn't it?

this deal is a joke. the yankees offered them a golden trade, and twins asked for another block of gold. they turned to the sox and asked for a bag of peanuts and a piece of silver. there is no way the yankees could give up 2 upcoming stars for only Johan. and the twins get some midlevel prospects and coco? thats a joke

Uhh Why is Ellsbury so good?

I mean the guy plays great defense, but other than that?

This is what Neyer had to say:


Mark (Minnesota): Maybe I’m stupid, but I don’t see the fuss over Ellsbury. He’s 24 years old and this year in the minors in 463 ABs he had only 2 HRs, 24 2Bs and 7 3Bs. I see him as a future leadoff hitter with good speed and little power, perhaps like a Kenny Lofton. How is that the centerpiece of a Santana deal? We should get more for Johan - like a potential #1 starter!

Rob Neyer: (1:15 PM ET ) You’re not stupid, Mark. I might have been over-exuberant a few moments ago, as I also downplayed Ellsbury’s potential a few months ago. He’s benefiting from a halo effect, due to his performance in October. But he does not project as a big star.

o come on.. don't be a disgruntled yankees fan. Be happy that you have kept all 3 of your young starters. In the future it will help. Lester Crisp Lowrie and Masterson is a good deal. With Liriano being the ace, Lester and Masterson in a year or two could give the twins a good rotation, and lowrie fills a void at SS.

skelley,

Clearly, you understand the definition of a "straw man," but don't know how to properly identify one.

I'll quote your post again, to refresh your recollection:

"Are the Twins retarded, or do they just not care about competitive balance?

Any deal with Santana is gonna involve an extension. The Twins owe it to competitive balance to DEMAND Buchholz AND Ellsbury in any trade. This isn't Mark Buehrle they're trading for here."

"The Twins owe it to competitive balance." The Twins OWE it to competitive balance. There is no other logical extension of this statement except that you think the Twins should make their organizational decisions based on considerations about what is good for the "fairness" of Major League Baseball as a whole. That's not a straw man; that's taking the very plain implications of your statement and shedding light on just how monumentally stupid they are.

Meanwhile, you've restated your reactionary vision of the proposed trade by pointing out (uselessly) that the best pitcher in baseball is being moved for prospects, without regard for whether one year of Santana plus draft picks is actually/empirically/objectively worth more than the packages offered. You've downplayed the value of the prospects involved without providing any evidence of their actually worth in terms of projected production and current cost, and then you go on to make subjective determinations about Lester's "upside" versus Ellsbury's, again without showing your basis.

Sweet.

I posted this on Tim's "Hiatus" post, but figured I'd bring it here where it'll get more play...

According to a poster at "Sons of Sam Horn", ESPN's Buster Olney is on the radio now commenting on the Sox-Twins talks. The following is a paraphrasing provided by the said poster:

- Twins and Red Sox are meeting as we speak, expected to pick Lester OR Ellsbury-centered package.
- Twins "like Ellsbury a lot", but some people in the organization want to get an ML-ready pitcher back in the deal.
- Red Sox "very confident" they will be able to work out long-term deal with Santana.

As a Red Sox fan, I'm pretty disappointed at the complete lack of respect for Jon Lester as a prospect.

Ok, he had cancer, certainly something to be wary about, but he made a full recovery, was healthy enough to win a World Series, and as a 21yr old in AA posted 2.86ERA, gave up 114H in 148.1IP, had a 163/57 K/BB, allowed .606HR/9, and has always shown the ability to pitch out of big jams. He's not the prospect that Philip Hughes is, but he is undoubtedly a better prospect than Ian Kennedy.

ellsbury and coco are virtual steals for the redsox. granted that melky isnt an all star, he has deccent range and speed, with an amazing arm; which puts him ahead of the other 2 fielding wise. they all seem to put in the average numbers, ellsbury seemingly the worst, but none can compare in the energy melky brings to the yanks. Lester is still unproven and health may be an issue. Granted Kennedy isnt a large factor, but Phil Hughes was the number one minor leaguer a year ago.

So the Twins are choosing between these two packages:

Package 1:

A 24 year old southpaw who's posted league average numbers and has had health problems and has show a propensity to walk people all through his career. He could be a #1/#2 but he could stay league average.

A SS/2B prospect who's put up good numbers and .800+ OPS in the minors.

A CF who's making $5 million and doesn't hit.

A minor league pitcher who may turn out to be good or may not.

Package 2:

A CF who plays great defense and doesn't hit for power. He's 24 and cheap.

Same 2B/SS as before.

Same minor league pitcher as before.