Dunn Denies $100MM Rumor

6 years 120 Million is something I could definitely see happening for him..

No one is going to pay $20m/year. He hits homeruns and walks. That's it.

He generated very little interest during the trade deadline. He was eventually moved for what appears to be very little. No way is he a $100m guy (unless it's an 7-8 year deal).

Like Duff-Man, Bronson Arroyo says a lot of things.

Just like Mark Teixera getting a 10 year deal. Just like Manny wanting 100MM. Just like Lohse wanting 40MM. It doesn't happen. Of the top 3 avalable left fielders next season, Dunn is the worst. I would take Burrell or Manny over him in a heartbeat.

Offer him 80 Million for 6 years with incentives if he strikes out less than 120 times per year..... (kidding)

I can see someone overpaying for Dunn. Hes gonna hit bombs and would be a great homerun derby attraction but other than that?????

Why do you all care about striking out so much? When the reward is 40+ dingers, it cancels out all the worthless grounders and pop outs that come with shortening his swing.

Bottom line, he's pretty good at:
a) not making outs
b) hitting HRs.

These are literally the 2 most important things a hitter can do, if you want to break it down to the absolute minimum.

I just don't think teams value his skill set for him to get anywhere close to $100M. This guy' been available for the last few years, and no one wanted to step up and trade any prospects for him, when he was under a reasonable contract.

There aren't many teams that can sign $100M contracts, and there are going to be at least 2 (Tex and CC) that will be getting that type of deal, it eliminates just more options for Dunn.

I'd be surprised if he got more than a 4yr/$60M contract, with an option year or two. But there's always Ned Colletti, so who knows?

A DH should not be getting 100 Million. Any one that argues he is more than just a hitter only really shouldn't be involved with this conversation.

Manny is in the same boat. He can hit with the best in the game, but I surely wouldn't want him on my team patrolling left field anymore.

Yeah, right....

I would be suprised if he gets north of 50 million. Not that he's not worth it, but because he's such a polarizing figure that will turn most General Managers off. There won't be much of a bidding war for his services, just my opinion.

Dunn could get 100 million and maybe some. You say Dunn isn't a great defensive player and I agree, but neither is Alfonso Soriano and look at the contract he recieved. I'm not really comparing the two I'm just saying if they guy can hit 40+ homeruns and drives in 100 RBI's he can get a 100 million dollar contract.

Victor,

I have to disagree with you, Lee doesn't strike out that much compared to a lot of other players. Now Soto, yes he does strike out a lot but Lee isn't even in the top 60 of most strike outs by a hitter.

Victor,

If Dunn makes so many "non-outs", then wouldn't his batting average be higher?

Now, I'm not saying that BA is a stat worthy of evaluating a player, but by the logic of Dunn making more "non-outs" than the majority of players, that would have to mean that he is getting more hits...thus raising the BA.

I understand that the guy walks a lot, but compare Dunn to a Lance Berkman type. Berkman hits for average, power, takes plenty of walks...yet doesn't K at the rate Dunn does.

K rate over their careers:
Dunn: 32.5% of recorded ABs
Berkman: 19.8% of ABs

In fact, Berkman has K'd fewer times in his career than Dunn....and played 2 more seasons.

K's do matter.

cubs land: Lee's gotten 164 SO before. Struck out over 100 times last year and will be over 100 this year. Yeah, he's not Dunn or Howard bad, but he's fanned 70% as much as Dunn, which, for whatever reason, everyone thinks is a crippling weakness.

Lots of awesome players strike out a lot. They even let the career leader in strike outs in the Hall of Fame. Strike outs for a hitter don't matter.

"the logic of Dunn making more "non-outs" than the majority of players, that would have to mean that he is getting more hits...thus raising the BA."

No, it means he is getting more hits and WALKS. It's perfectly sound logic. That's what OBP is for. The rate what which you don't make outs. Dunn's very good at it.

"I understand that the guy walks a lot, but compare Dunn to a Lance Berkman type."

You know Berkman had more SO than Dunn did last year right? And Berkman only played one more game than Dunn. You know who strike outs less than Lance Berkman? Juan Pierre. And that guy is awful.

And just because Dunn is worse than Berkman, an absolutely fantastic player, does not make Dunn a bad player.

My point is this: If player A has 30 strikeouts in 600 AB and player B has 100 SO in 600 AB, then you can't tell who is the better hitter. You gotta look at the OBP and slugging to do that. That's what I mean by "strikeouts are meaningless for a hitter" because they pretty much are.

While people can debate his "productiveness" in this thread, nobody can seem to come up with a team willing to pay him.

I by no means intend to sound like K's are a huge stat. I do believe however that the more often the ball is put in play, the higher probability of runs scoring. Every player will K, obviously. But if I were to suggest a player to receive a 100MM+ deal, I would want them to be a more complete player than Dunn.

Dogs coach:
What is a complete player?
Beltran? Vernon Wells?
Both have worse career numbers then Dunn and have been injured early trough both their contracts. Both have 100+mill contracts. So because they run faster and play better defense are they valued higher? Now I would take Beltran Over Dunn but that is a longer conversation.
Carlos Lee: Bad defense .849 career OPS, and no speed.
Dunn: Bad Defense , .900 career OPS and no speed. Sounds like a better player to me. So how would he be valued less then a comparable player who is worse? Now the question of whether any of them are worth it is a different question but according to what the market is Dunn should get 100 million.

First Dunn is a league average defensive OF. He's not great but there are many worse then him, he just gets a bad rap because of his earlier years in LF. He's worked hard to get better. He'll never be great but he's also not a DH either. In fact I would say that Griffey was the worst OF in the Reds OF this year by far.

Dunn also has more then one tool. He's a good base runner for his speed, he has a great eye at the plate, yes he does strike out, but not really any more then other power hitters and some non-power hitters strike out at a greater clip. Again this is something that Dunn has worked to improve and its also something that he gets branded for because he holds the record. Dunn has massive power and because of that pitchers nibble the strike zone which leads to Dunn's major flaw and something that the Reds never took any steps to protecting against. Dunn can't hit pitchers pitches, you hit the corners and get the calls you'll get him out. You miss and he'll take the walk. To defend against this it helps alot if you have someone that is something of a threat hitting behind Dunn. When Dunn hits with the likes of David Ross and Encaracion (sub .250 average and very hot and cold) pitchers exploit this, when the Reds put him in the number 2 slot Dunn numbers were excellent.

For his career when hitting there with some protection behind him Dunn has around 400 ABs has a .277 BA with 28 homers 76 RBI and a near .950 OPS

When Dunn's talents are maximized Adam Dunn is a MVP level talent. Hopefully the team that signs him knows what they have so Dunn can have the career he's meant to have. Because of Griffey he didn't get that in Cincinnati.

I can also see some team giving Dunn a 6 year 100 million dollar contract.

Ya know, we seem to see tons of people whine and cry about Dunn’s running abilities, saying he “clogs the basepaths” or whatever. Funny thing is, its not really true though. Infact, the last PECOTA book has what they call “Equivalent Basreunning Runs” (or EqBRR), it’s a formula which takes into account the frequency in which a player takes an extra base, be it by hit, groundball, flyball, passed-ball, wildpitch, stolen base, balk, etc and factors it against the number of times they are also thrown out doing so. Last year Adam Dunn was statistically the 2nd best baserunner on the Reds team, behind only Norris Hopper. Similarly Bill James has his speed scores, which factor SB%, Double/Triple rates, runs per times on base, etc ~ Dunn finished right around average in there. So for all the “he cant run” talk, well the evidence doesn’t support it. I mean, hes not “fast”, but he’s not a “horrible baserunner” either…

So where I’m sure everyone has an image of his rather large body running the bases and apparently just automatically assumes he is miserable out there, it isnt really the case… He isnt a “great” baserunner, but last year he proved he can be lightyears better than the likes of Teixeria, Burrell, Manny, Giambi, Thome, Thomas, etc ~ guys who are statistically some of the worst baserunners you will find in the game…

Also, the “he strikes out way too much” thing is interesting as well. Lets think about that one real fast:

07 A. Dunn ~ 632 PA / 106 RBI / 427 Runners ~ drove in 25% and 1 every 5.96 PA
07 MannyR ~ 569 PA / 088 RBI / 418 Runners ~ drove in 21% and 1 every 6.45 PA

08 A. Dunn ~ 464 PA / 74 RBI / 269 Runners ~ drove in 28% and 1 every 6.27 PA
08 MannyR ~ 466 PA / 81 RBI / 318 Runners ~ drove in 25% and 1 every 5.75 PA

Who cares if he has struck out 26% of his PA the last two years vs someone like Manny at 18% ~ the end results are he is driving in more runners despite quite a large difference in opportunities (Dunn had 696 guys on spread over 1096 PA vs Manny 736 on over 1035 PA).

Honestly, people should probably try stop complaining about things that arent relevant (ie, “he hates baseball) arent true (ie, horrible baserunner), acting like one thing somehow means something else (ie, high SO = less productive) and relying on stats which have been proven to be rather unimportant over the last 100 years (ie, BA). What he does is get on base at a higher rate than most in the game, slug the ball with some of the better in the game, consistently drive in/score a huge number of runs despite having fewer opportunities than most, and at 28 YO he is just now entering his prime. Complain about him if you feel you absolutely must for whatever reason, but…

"No one is going to pay $20m/year. He hits homeruns and walks. That's it."

That's the baseball equivalent of Buddy Ryan releasing Chris Carter and saying "all he does is catch touchdowns".

Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano are very good barometers to Dunn's next deal. Both are below average defenders in left, but they got paid for their ability to hit. Put Dunn at 1B on his next team and it further eliminates this whole "1-tool" argument. Dunn is a better hitter than Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano, period.

Dunn is smoking about $100 of crack if he thinks he deserves that many millions.

I'd be upset if my club locked him in for more than three or four years at fourteen or fifteen per. He's a whirling dervish in the middle of your order. Sure, he connects every once in a while, but all those other times? Just gut a punch.

He's nuts.

$100M for a guy hitting .233?

He's on qualudes.

Does the name Bill James or the phrase "old skills player" ring a bell? IF it doesn't, then go look them up.

A couple of years ago, James wrote about old skills players and guess who he mentioned by name? Richie Sexson and Adam Dunn.

Now, James is employed by the Boston Red Sox and look which two players were avalable this year? Richie Sexson and Adam Dunn.

Did the Red Sox go out and get Sexson or Dunn when Ortiz was injured and Manny was being Manny? NO!!!

Richie Sexson had better numbers, at ages 27 and 28, then Dunn has and look what happened to him after he signed the big contract with Seattle.

What GM in their right mind would give Dunn a large or long term contract the Richie Sexson Experience is still fresh?

Oh yeah, I forgot, probably the stupid Cincinnati Reds. A team that plays in a hitters park and that needs Pitching. A team with an Owner that has a man crush on Dunn and who just hired Bill Bavasi - the GM who signed Richie Sexson to that big dollar deal in Seattle.

“Yes, he'll hit 40 dongs and yes, he takes his share of walks....but what about all of those unproductive outs? He hits .235 and K's 160-180 times per year. Also, he's a statue both in the field and on the bases....and has hit .236 with RISP and .226 close and late the last three years combined.”

…See, that’s the kind of illogical post I was talking about. Lets break it down real fast:

~~~ “Yes, he'll hit 40 dongs and yes, he takes his share of walks....”
…That’s not all he does; that’s just all you choose to mention. Besides, are those two things not extremely important to winning games?

~~~ “but what about all of those unproductive outs?”
…what “unproductive-outs”? We already went over Dunn vs Manny, which showed us that Dunn makes more out of RBI opportunities than Ramirez does. So Manny with his fewer Ks, more “productive outs” and higher BA drives in a fewer percentage of the runners on in front of him ~ how do you explain that? But lets entertain it further for a second, comparing him to Arod this time:

First, you can only have “productive outs” when there are men on base. Taking the stats from the last three years with men on we see this: (outs being PA – H – BB – HBP)
Dunn ~ 786 PA with men on, 514 Outs, 215 K, 299 “productive outs” or 58.2%
ARod ~ 974 PA with men on, 570 Outs, 193 K, 377 “productive outs” or 66.1%

That’s an 8% difference. But what exactly does that 8% mean though? Well, factoring ARods 66.1% to 514 Outs (Dunns total) gives us 340 “productive outs” over the last 3 years vs Dunn at 299 ~ ie, about 13-14 ABs a year difference where a runner may or may-not have advanced. Then we have to consider that generally 1/3 ABs are with 2 outs, so that 13-14 drops down to about 8-9. Now even if you want to take the high-side of it and estimate half the guys actually advanced, that’s only like 4 runners getting an extra base. Lastly, of those maybe 4 guys, how many do you think might have ended up scoring on the next hitters AB? We are probably talking a team scoring an extra 1-2 Runs max for all of ARods “productive outs” vs Dunns “unproductive outs” as you call them ~ and that’s Dunn vs one of the best hitters in the game…

~~~ “He hits .235 and K's 160-180 times per year.”
…Pierre hits .280-ish and Ks less than 40 times a year despite generally being one of the top AB guys ~ does that mean you think Pierre is one of the greats of the game? Because neither stat actually translates to real production, I imagine you will say no… Taking two rather meaningless stats and claiming they are a somehow a huge negative against a player though, well what does that prove? I mean, can I say Jeter sucks because he is generally among the leaders at grounding into double plays?

~~~ “Also, he's a statue both in the field and on the bases....”
…Not really that true, and extremely unimportant. Its just one of those easy blanket complaints people like to whine about when they cant think of something actually important or intelligent to complain about...

~~~ “and has hit .236 with RISP and .226 close and late the last three years combined.”
…He actually has hit only .233 with RISP the last three years. Want to know the important part though? Well, that comes in the .394 OBP and .491 SLG. He also has 163 RBI in those 369 AB ~ which you will find that is a similar pace to the bigbats on the Yankees... Take ARod for instance: (again, 3 year totals with RISP)

Dunn ~ .233/.394/.491 in 487 PA / 369 AB & 163 RBI.
ARod ~ .298/.439/.546 in 618 PA / 476 AB & 224 RBI

That means:
Dunn ~ 1 RBI per 2.99 PA & 1 RBI per 2.26 AB ~ ie, 163/163 over 476 PA/369 AB
ARod ~ 1 RBI per 2.76 PA & 1 RBI per 2.13 AB ~ ie, 172/173 over 476 PA/369 AB
…That’s the difference of a measly 3 RBI a year with RISP, despite there being a whooping .065 BA difference ~ and that’s Dunn compared to one of the top-5 players in the game! Also, dont you think those 3 extra RBI a year can possibly be explained a bit in the fact that ARod has hit behind guys like Jeter, Abreu and Damon (ie, faster, better baserunners) instead of a revolving door which included such standouts on the basepaths as Junior, Hattenberg, Encarnacion, Aurilia, etc? There were some speedy guys mixed in for Dunn of course, (ie, Phillips, Freel and Lopez at different times); but there were slugs hitting in the two spots directly in front of him more times than not…

The stats are all there for us to look at, and the stats state a very different picture than the one you (and others) are trying to claim somehow exists. So again, bitch about him all you want, but in the end it really does little more than make yourself look illogical, unintelligent and/or just bias …

"Strikeouts for hitters are a meaningless stat."

Really? How about you dig up Joe DiMaggio and ask him that? Or, for a more modern example, how about Albert Pujols. Or Vladimir Guerrero for that matter.

"Is OF defense really even that important if you stack your bullpen and rotation with groundball pitchers?"

How many games behind are the A's again?

"That's the baseball equivalent of Buddy Ryan releasing Chris Carter and saying 'all he does is catch touchdowns'."

As an aside, Carter was not released because of his performance on the field. Carter was an alcoholic and drug addict who was taking massive amounts of cocaine.