Perrotto's Latest: GMs, Angels, Offseason Moves

Here is what I would do in the off-season for the Angels:

-- Offer Garland arbitration and let him walk with a multi-year deal from someone else. Save $12m and receive picks.
-- Decline Anderson's option, pay his buyout, and offer him a bench role at a low base ($3m). If he resigns super. If not - let him walk.
-- Resign Rivera at a 1/$3 deal.
-- Save $10m and let K-Rod walk after offering arbitration. Collect your picks.
-- Offer Tex a 8/$140 deal. If he accepts super. If not, offer arbitration and collect the picks.

If Tex does not sign use that money to make a serious run at CC. Play Kendry at 1B (919 OPS in AAA). Alternatively, look at Dunn to see if a 4/60 deal might work and plug him in at 1B or DH.

One last thing - move GMJ. His value is so low right now that we will need to pick up a chunk of his salary. That said, when healthy, he is worth $5-7m. Eating half of his salary may be enough to move him and land a middling prospect or 2.

I'm sentimental and it clouds my judgment when it comes to GA. Traditional statistical measurements show that he really shouldn't be coming back. I just have a soft spot for him knowing how many big hits he has delivered over the years. At $3m/year I don't think it hurts the organization at all. Anyway, whether he stays or leaves doesn't matter much since he will be relegated to a bench position.

Rivera is interesting. I don't know how to gauge the interest level other clubs will have. Last year he was out all year with an injury. This year he has only played part time. If I were Rivera I would take a 1 year deal with the understanding that he will start 75% of the time. Let him build up his value and then sign a good FA deal after 09.

I don't think 8/$140 is enough to get tex back. I think 8/$160 is more like it and I think he is worth it. As far as free agents, I think you guys nailed it on K-Rod and Garland. I would like to see GA come back but it would have to be something very lowball like the 1/$3 like you guys suggested. He still has great value with his clutch hits and leadership. Rivera is a tough one, I think he is a great player but he needs to actually play full time (like he has been the last couple months). If GA is gone or takes a bench role, I think Rivera is worth a 1 or 2 year deal at maybe $5mm.

Then with the money coming off the books from Garland and K-rod leaving and GA's paycut, make a run at CC but keep in mind that Lackey and Vlad need extensions this offseason to keep them here.

Brett Sinkbeil would have been released by the Yankees for taking up AA roster space.

Gaby Sanchez is a 25 year old first baseman in AA. He is a slightly better prospect than Juan Miranda, who has already completed a successful year in AAA while only being 5 months older.

They have almost no value.

I agree that it'll take more than 8/$140 to sign Teixiera, and he's worth it. The Yankees, with an opening at 1B and a need for a big bat AND $80m+ in payroll flexibility, will be coming hard at Teixiera. I LOVE what he's done for the Angels. He rarely has a bad at bat... and everyone in the Angels lineup (particularly Guerrero) has benefited from having him in the offense; they need to keep him.

I'd love to keep Rivera, but don't think they can afford him and don't see any reason for him to sign a 1 year deal. There will be a lot of interest in him; a reasonably priced bat with huge upside.

I agree that they will offer arbitration to K-Rod and Garland, although I wouldn't be surprised if they made a run at keeping Garland. This is a team that has always valued starting pitching depth, and there's not a lot of it in the minor leagues... particularly with Adenhart taking a step backwards. They'll need another starting pitcher... which is why I think they will earmark the KRod money to make a run at Sabathia.

Signing Sabathia AND Teixiera... particularly when the Yankees have all that money to spend....may be a pipe dream, but one can hope.

Obviously, a run at those two guys would preclude bringing KRod back... and I'm okay with that. Given the choice, I'd funnel the limited resources into starting pitching.

The decision to let GA walk was a no-brainer... until he started raking (about the time Teixiera came aboard). If he'll sign a low-ball 1 or 2 year offer, bring him back... otherwise, let him go. Given their history of making sound, non-sentimental decisions in recent years (Percival, Erstad, Eckstein, Kennedy)... I believe they'll do the same here and say goodbye to GA.

FInally, Lackey and Vlad will be entering option years and need to be locked up.

Sure to be a controversial off-season for the Angels, hopefully preceeded by a succesful post season run.

The Reds need to offer Encarnacion to the Giants in an attempt to land Cain. He would fit in nicely in the middle of the rotation.

Couple thoughts ...

1. Keeping Vlad beyond 2009 is far from a no brainer. He has been amazing and worth every penny so far. That said, I'm not convinced that he is experiencing a little hiccup. IF he becomes a 300/25hr hitter who is available 75% of the time I don't think the Angels would be well served in giving him another big contract. At this point his name is more valuable than his actual performance.

Quick trivia question - among Angels starters where does Vlad's OPS rank? Answer below.

As to Tex. I do believe that he will settle for less money than people think. Here's why:

The market for $15-20m players is limited. It further shrinks when you consider who has openings at 1B (basically the Angels, Orioles and Yankees). While I can see the Yanks going crazy for him another part of me realizes that the Yanks haven't signed big name FA's in the past few years. Do they break the pattern on a guy like Tex? The Orioles should focus on rebuilding. And the Angels are a team that he is comfortable with and hopefully will have success with this year. That's why I'm predicting $18m/year with the Halos.

Trivia answer: Napoli leads the team with an OPS of 885 despite hitting just 241. Guerrero is 2nd at 868 - about 100 points below his career average.

@ nostocksjustbonds

Here's my argument (just playing Devil's advocate).

Matt Cain's primary value is his cost. Remove cost from the equation and there are many players that perform at a similar level. The problem is that to acquire those players via FA one would need to spend a lot of money (see Sabathia's future contract). But, Cain's talent is replaceable given the right financial resources.

If the above statement is true, Cain's primary value comes during the next three years. After 2011 he will hit the open market and sign a deal that is in line with his performance. By the same token, the Giants should be able to find other similar performing players at a similar price to what Matt Cain will require for 2012 and beyond.

That said, if you don't think the Giants will be serious contenders in the next 3 years why hold onto Cain? Wouldn't the Giants be better served raiding some other organizations farm systems looking for players that can come up at approximately the same time as the next great crop of Giants players hits the bigs? What good will Cain be to the club if they continue to plod along as a 70 win team for the next several years?

Cain would be a great match for a team that is heavy on talent but tight on financial resources. I would think Cain could land the very best in the Brewers farm system and fill multiple holes. The talent may be a year or two away but that's OK. The Giants aren't going to contend for quite awhile.

"Prince and Bill Hall for Cain???"

I've thrown this one out there before as well, as the middle ground to offering Fielder straight up for Cain and offering both Fielder and Hardy for Cain. The problem though is that you get the vibe that Bill Hall doesn't really hold much value to anybody anymore. I think it's a fair deal for the most part though

Angels: Should not drop 1/5 of their total team payroll on Mark Teixiera. Like A-Rod... in the end you'll find out that it just wasn't worth it. At least A-Rod's chasing a HR record so its a smart COMMERCIAL decision.

Yankees: I dunno Tim. Robby's looked pretty horrible since his amazing '06. His power hasn't quite come around the way the Yanks had hoped. I see him as a Bobby Abreau with less power and less experience behind the plate. I'd say if the Yanks can make a move to pull in a strong infielder (such as Hudson) they should go for it. This yankees team year in and year out just doesn't seem to click when it counts. If you are dumping giambi and abreau, might as well pick up some young players this offseason and wait to go for the gusto till after '09 when they lose a few other big contracts, matsui and damon among them. I don't see either of them being invited back. Matsui's knees are shot and damon will end up being too much money for a lack of performance (until this year... of course).

Bottom line is that if the yankees want to establish themselves (as the Rays and Sox have done) as a team that will be competitive for years to come, making a few offseason moves this year can't get that job done. You have to suck for awhile to get really good in most cases. Most young players are not going to turn out the way that you expect and that can get really frustrating. But when it eventually works out and you have players such as youkilis pedroia papelbon masterson bucholz, lester, ect., you begin to realize that it was all worth it.

I'm unsure whom else will be involved, but I do see a trade this winter involving Matt Cain and Prince Fielder. Brewers have some pop, and their downfall this Sept was pitching, and Cain is 24 year old stud with a 3.80 ERA and over 500 Strike Outs over his first three full years in the bigs. He's practically paid in peanuts over the next three years and could serve as a 1 or 2 pitcher in nearly any Rotation in the league.

The Giants need a young/heavy handed 1B and they've already came out publicly that they like Prince Fielder. I was at the game after the All Star break and went into McCovey cove with ease.

I think the team should make every effort to resign GA to a team friendly, incentive laden deal. I like the $3 million idea, as it ends up as a net of $6 million. Then include a vesting option based on PAs and batting numbers for something like $8 million.

I also like the idea of bringing back Rivera and dumping GMJ for salary relief.

"Alternatively, look at Dunn to see if a 4/60 deal might work and plug him in at 1B or DH."

Dunn is useless to the Angels given their system, especially if Napoli is also in the lineup.

"Trivia answer: Napoli leads the team with an OPS of 885 despite hitting just 241. Guerrero is 2nd at 868 - about 100 points below his career average."

Napoli's OPS is inflated by his slugging percentage, though his OBP has climbed back over .350 with a late charge, and his selective playing time.

"Keeping Vlad beyond 2009 is far from a no brainer. He has been amazing and worth every penny so far. That said, I'm not convinced that he is experiencing a little hiccup. IF he becomes a 300/25hr hitter who is available 75% of the time I don't think the Angels would be well served in giving him another big contract. At this point his name is more valuable than his actual performance."

Keeping Vlad is an absolute no brainer. His early season struggles were largely because he was playing in pain. Further, he makes everyone in the lineup better simply with his presence.

Further, Vlad has performed like his normal self lately.

Here is his line over the last 28 days:

.379 .423 .561 .983

and here is the line over the second half:

.321 .382 .549 .931

He is a massive draw and the only one the Angels really have if they let K-Rod go, and that includes Tex and anyone else.

"Vlad & Lackey both have options for next year, but next offseason they will need extensions."

Ugh. You don't wait for them to be free agents to extend them, you do it when you have some extra time and leverage.

"I agree that they will offer arbitration to K-Rod and Garland, although I wouldn't be surprised if they made a run at keeping Garland."

There is absolutely no reason to resign Garland. That is a huge chunk of salary for a 5th starter with 4th starter stuff. If Escobar comes back, good. If Escobar does not, let the two Nicks duke it out and don't be surprised if Green's stuff plays better at the MLB level. Either that, or sign someone much cheaper to hold up that end like a Kyle Lohse type.

As for Frankie, resign the guy. Not just because of his ability, but because of the fact that he really is the team's biggest draw outside of Vlad.

"3-4 years for 10ish a year."

You are kidding, right? He got $10 million in his arbitration LOSS. There is no way he takes a pay cut or stagnates anywhere. He will get at least $12 million, and the Angels will pay that if not outbid.

"The angels fan base is growing every day and they don't need K-rod to do it, as long as Arty is running the show."

The seeds to the Angels' exploding popularity were sewn before Moreno bought the team for an outright bargain. The 2002 World Series and the 1995 season did much for the team. What Moreno did was make the game more affordable and jump on a huge mistake by the Dodgers (the second time they screwed up on Vlad Guerrero). Rodriguez was a huge part of that 2002 team and still draws because of it.

"But he has been hurt all year, and if his knee is unable to hold up consistent play everyday or if there is structural damage then it is in his best interest to retire."

Are you nuts? Why the hell would he retire? He just entered a club with a membership of exactly two, with Lou Gehrig being the other guy. Further, he has absolutely murdered the ball in the second half, which suggests that his knee has heeled sufficiently to be a force.

You think this is the line of a guy who should retire? At 32?

.330 .389 .569 .957

Those are Vlad's second half numbers. They look an awful lot like his career numbers.

.323 .389 .574

"As for Lackey, picking up his option is a no brainer and extending him is a no brainer, but Angels don't have to do it this offseason... They can do it during next season or after the season."

You don't get how this works, do you? The closer a player gets to free agency, the more difficult it is to resign them at a more favorable rate. If you let Lackey go to next year and he is in a much weaker FA pitching class, suddenly his value goes through the roof and you have to pay the guy $16-18 million to keep him. It is a better deal to resign him now to a deal like Peavy or Webb than to wait and face losing him or paying him another $4-5 million a year.

"You don't get how this works, do you? The closer a player gets to free agency, the more difficult it is to resign them at a more favorable rate. If you let Lackey go to next year and he is in a much weaker FA pitching class, suddenly his value goes through the roof and you have to pay the guy $16-18 million to keep him. It is a better deal to resign him now to a deal like Peavy or Webb than to wait and face losing him or paying him another $4-5 million a year."

So you're saying that Lackey is stupid and doesn't know that... Lackey knows that just as well as you do, he's not stupid. He's not gonna be like, 'oh well since I have a year left, Im gonna extend at a favorable price for the Angels and well below my actual value', NO... He's not stupid. He's gonna sign for his value whether it's this offseason, during next season or next offseason.

#1 Angels Fan said: "he should retire".

And then later... "I never said he SHOULD retire".

I'm confused.

I heard they have this new medical breakthrough called surgery.

Additionally...
It would be in Lackey's best interest to lock in a contract during the off season. Because if Lackey gets a blister on his pitching hand next season, he will have to retire. Who would want to sign a free agent with a blister on his hand? He could have structural damage under the blister. Think about it this way: "You don't know, Scioscia doesn't know, [Lackey ]doesn't even know (but maybe he does) and yes, I don't even know. I'm just pointing out the possibility".

"but if he's seriously hurt he should retire"

PS. This is what I said... it's easy to pick out words isn't it... see the IF? IF he's seriously hurt.

"Structural damage as in loss of cartilage."

I am sure Vlad has had some cartilage loss over time.

"IF he's seriously hurt."

Um, his second half numbers don't suggest that at all.