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Week In Review: 6/28/09 - 7/4/09

By Steve Adams [July 5, 2009 at 4:22pm CST]

Hope everyone had a great 4th this weekend! We saw some trades this week, heard about some potential deals, and also had the International Signing Period begin on July 2! Here's your weekly look back at the MLBTR world:

The Pirates have been all over the headlines this week, highlighted by their trade with the Nationals in which they sent Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to Washington in exchange for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan. I've got to credit Neal Huntington for selling high on two pieces who likely aren't a major part of the club's future to buy low on a talent like Milledge and a hard-luck reliever this year in Hanrahan. Obviously, it's no sure thing, but it's the type of high upside move Bucs fans should be glad to see.
Pittsburgh also sent Eric Hinske to the Yankees for two minor leaguers this week, and they may not be done yet. They're reportedly also considering deals for Matt Capps and John Grabow. We heard this week that the Twins are interested in both relievers, as well as Freddy Sanchez. Minnesota's bullpen has grown slightly thinner after releasing Luis Ayala this week, and their middle infield has struggled all season. Ayala signed with the Marlins on Thursday.
The two biggest names among international players this week have been Miguel Angel Sano and Aroldis Chapman. Sano has been linked to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Minnesota. Sano's age is being investigated, but that hasn't stopped Minnesota from offering a roughly $3MM bonus. Pittsburgh has reportedly offered one as well. Despite the Twins' offer, they appear to be a distant third for Sano's services. Here's some additional information on the Dominican phenom.
The news this week that Chapman had defected from Cuba started talks of a bidding war, and the Yankees emerged with interest in the lefty fireballer. However, recent news that Chapman may be 26 years old, and not 21 as previously thought, have lilkely caused his once high value to come down to a more reasonable price. Where can you see Chapman landing?
Teams in need of pitching (which covers just about all of them) might not want to count on Ben Sheets this season. The former Milwaukee ace may not pitch at all in 2009. He's been heavily linked to the Rangers in the past; who should Texas be scouting as Plan B?
Another ace who's apparently unavailable is Dan Haren, for whom the Angels attempted to begin negotiations. The D'Backs though, "almost can't conceive" a package that would make them think about moving the All-Star.
The Mets have been decimated by injuries, but Omar Minaya seems content to rely on the return of some of his big name players and won't make a big move. Is this the right move, or is Omar being too optimistic of his players' health?
Don't look for the Nationals to conduct a firesale either. As Mike Rizzo says, firesales mean you "want to dump people," and the Nats don't want to dump anyone. I can't fathom why the Nationals wouldn't be major sellers, though. This seems more like a play to not detract value from the trade chips he does have.

Full Story | Comments (19) | Categories: Week In Review

Comments

You guys filling in for Tim are doing a great job, just wanted to say.

Posted by: Michael Dukakis | July 05, 2009 at 04:36 PM

"You guys filling in for Tim are doing a great job, just wanted to say."

I second this.

But, also wanted to say, you all have missed one of the coolest stories! Although, I myself admitt it isnt trade related, I think we need an Adam Dunn watch somewhere on the site!

Going into today,
Dunn - 22 HR
Nats - 23 Wins

After today,
Dunn - 22 HR
Nats - 24 Wins
(booo)

Come on Dunn, you can do it!

Posted by: SuzysMan | July 05, 2009 at 05:04 PM

But what says Dunn stays a Nat much longer? A lot of teams might be getting desperate enough for hitting that they give in to the "kings Ransom" he is being held for.

Posted by: highVoltage | July 05, 2009 at 05:14 PM

I'm so tired of some of you saying Hanrahan is a bad-luck pitcher. Have you seen him pitch? The guy is trash. And I guess he had bad luck in his second outing with the Pirates (2 runs given up). No excuses to be made for him, he's just not a MLB pitcher.

The Nationals got the better of the deal. A high energy centerfielder with good defensive range and speed that is needed at the leadoff spot. And a left handed relief pitcher who has a solid ERA this year.

Posted by: DJ | July 05, 2009 at 05:27 PM

DJ, I have no feelings toward Hanrahan at all since I don't really care but when I read your comment, I felt compelled to respond.

Hanrahan's BAbip in 2008 was .295, which is only .005 points higher than the average. He isn't a great pitcher, but he isn't as awful as some people make him out to be. He truly has had horrible luck. Right now in 2009, his BAbip is .443, which is quite high and is a telling sign that he was the victim of not only bad luck, but terrible defense as well. His very high BaBIP suggests that he is due for a market correction either during the second half of this season or, more than likely, next year.

Only time will tell if this was a good deal, but as far as Hanrahan goes, the statistics are suggesting that even though he is an average pitcher, bad luck is playing a significant role in many of his pitching woes this season.

Posted by: BKuGotIt | July 05, 2009 at 06:06 PM

BK, I respect your opinion, but I'm going to have to say let's agree to disagree. I've seen him come in countless games and blow the lead and not be able to limit damage control. Sure his fastball hits 96, but it's flat. When he relies on his slider, it's when he's behind in the count and he usually has no control over it.

I don't care what stats say in his case in particular, this guy does not have the make-up of a major league reliever that you can rely on. Time after time he goes out there and is either out of control or too hittable.

Good luck to the Pirates in trying to fix him. They'll need it.

Posted by: DJ | July 05, 2009 at 06:11 PM

"But what says Dunn stays a Nat much longer? A lot of teams might be getting desperate enough for hitting that they give in to the "kings Ransom" he is being held for."

Boo, dont burst my bubble! I want Dunn to be the first player to do it! And lets be honest, he stands a really good chance.

On Hanrahan, this is perfectly said
"Right now in 2009, his BAbip is .443, which is quite high and is a telling sign that he was the victim of not only bad luck, but terrible defense as well."

Being "too hittable" is because of the above. He should only have about 37 hits if he was sitting with a normal BAbip, and if that was the case his line would be .238/.312/.419/.731 instead of .348/.410/.529/.939. It still isnt fantastic, but considering the NL average is .257/.330/.404/.735 it would stand to reason his ERA would also be around the League Average of 4.44.

Posted by: SuzysMan | July 05, 2009 at 06:44 PM

I should have also said that he would have that line if all 17 hits were singles. That in itself is extremely unlikely, but any fewer extra base hits and his SLG also drops. SLG drops any, and he goes down below League Average ERA. It isnt hard to envision that normalized line getting close to his .233/.320/.377/.697 of last year, when he posted a 3.95 ERA with a 3.84 FIP. And since a normalized line against is so close to last years production, it is probably a good indicator of his real talent with all luck removed.

Posted by: SuzysMan | July 05, 2009 at 06:52 PM

For those sticking up for Hanrahan, have you seen him pitch every game this year? I have. It's grueling and I don't recommend doing so.

54 hits, 15 walks and 30 earned runs in less than 35 innings of action is terrible. Oh and his 7.79 ERA, .348 opp avg and 1.99 whip look sexy too.

Posted by: DJ | July 05, 2009 at 07:04 PM

Boy, you really don't understand the stat they are using, do you?

Hanrahan's BABIP is .443. That is roughly 150 points above the norm. It is EXTREMELY unlucky to have all those balls put in play find a spot to land. That is bound to come down, or would definitely if he were on a better defensive team.

You are the average fan and claim he is horrendus by watching the games he has pitched? Yea, right. Important stats mean nothing.

Posted by: B3NG4L | July 05, 2009 at 07:57 PM

LOL! We're all stat geeks yes, but at the same time, if you have seen this guy pitch you would know he's worthless. B3NG4L, how about the important stats I listed. Yeah I guess an ERA of 7.79 is not important. The Nats don't have the best defense, yeah I know that, but to say that they are a majority of the reason for Hanrahan's struggles is idiotic. Just you watch him continue to fail in Pittsburgh (heck he already has given up 2 runs).

Posted by: DJ | July 05, 2009 at 08:03 PM

Whatever - you are clearly hopeless. It isn't stat geeky to use stats that actually mean something.

Posted by: B3NG4L | July 05, 2009 at 08:05 PM

DJ, his FIP is 3.44 this year! Think about it, Fielding Independent ERA is 3.44, yet he holds a 7.79. You dont see the problem there? Obviously he isnt nearly as bad as his counting stats during his unlucky 09 suggest.

Last year till now, there really are only two differences in Hanrahan. First, his BB rate went down (that is a good thing) Second, his hit rate went through the roof (the result of the BAbip). Everything else is the same.

(well, LOB% also dropped 10 points, but you would think that too has to do with the BAbip - it was exactly 73% in both 07 and 08)

Posted by: SuzysMan | July 05, 2009 at 08:18 PM

Suzys, thanks for having a mature debate where B3NG4L has to try and insult. I see what you're saying, but again, I have seen the guy time after time just completely blow it. Nothing to do with defense, just getting shelled out there.

Again, agree to disagree. Some feel he's hard-luck, but coming from someone who has watched him the last few years . . . I would not want him on my team. Just you watch, that's all I'm saying. He's a bad pitcher.

Posted by: DJ | July 05, 2009 at 08:23 PM

Incredible. A regular, average fan knows more than scouts and stats?

I don't understand where I said an insult, but you did, saying "stat geek". It is amazing you don't understand, the guy has a 3.44 FIP and a .443 BABIP. His "average fan" numbers are about as unlucky as you can get.

Posted by: B3NG4L | July 05, 2009 at 08:31 PM

Again B3NG4L, sometimes it takes to see the guy pitch up close and personal night in and night out to see the guy fail.

Hey I guess his bad outing for the Pirates the other night was due to hard luck.

Keep calling me an average fan all you want, I'm not, but I know what I've seen from Joel and he's not a good pitcher.

What makes you say scouts are crazy about him? Not all are. But I forgot you're a genius.

Posted by: DJ | July 05, 2009 at 09:25 PM

DJ, I understand where you are coming from completely. My Cardinals have a reliever that is in for a serious market correction, and I will definitely get to that in just a second, but one final thing about Hanrahan.

His BB/9 is down to 4.5/9 innings, so he's definitely in control of his pitches. But he could be getting hit for a number of reasons. One of them, like you said is that his fastball is flat or slider doesn't slide. Those are fixable because we have past evidence that shows us that he is a better pitcher than he's showing right now.

Okay, my next post is about the guy on the Cards that is about to see a correction soon

Posted by: BKuGotIt | July 05, 2009 at 10:39 PM

Right now in 2009, Ryan Franklin is 2-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 20 saves. His K/BB ratio is 3.43 and he has only given up 3 earned runs all season.

Right now, his opponents batting avg. on balls in play (BABIP) is .200, which is ridiculously low (borderline flukish) when you consider his career avg BABIP is .273. He's better than the league avg, which is .290, but .200 means he's been getting EXTREMELY lucky and he's been doing it with crappy defense. Plus he Ks less than one batter per inning, which is a big red flag if you have a closer that doesn't strikeout at least one guy per inning. Franklin's market correction will either come in the second half of this year or next year, with my guess being that it will probably be the former. By no means am I saying Ryan Franklin is a bad pitcher, he's a definitely decent, but he's definitely not the stud closer that some of his standard numbers would suggest.

DJ, if you haven't already, check out baseballreference.com. You can look at some of these advanced stats people seem to like to throw out there, and find out what they are all about.

Posted by: BKuGotIt | July 05, 2009 at 10:48 PM

BKuGotIt

Wow, that is just as extreme - just in the other direction of course.

The FIP difference is huge (0.84 ERA to 3.10 FIP) and if you equalize the BAbip, you go from a .172/.225/.250/.479 line against, to .250/.398/.328/.626 (in the unlikely event the 9 extra hits do not include XBH, which it almost certainly would)

Needless to say, as a Cubs fan I am happy to see that! Lol! :)

Posted by: SuzysMan | July 05, 2009 at 11:24 PM

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Week In Review: 6/28/09 - 7/4/09

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