Experts Predict Jose Bautista’s 2011 Home Run Total

Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote a compelling piece yesterday for MLBTR examining Jose Bautista's upcoming arbitration case.  Today at RotoAuthority.com, we attempt to predict Bautista's 2011 home run total through the wisdom of ten top baseball writers, including Peter Gammons, Ken Rosenthal, Jon Heyman, and Buster Olney.  Click here to see their predictions.


37 Responses to Experts Predict Jose Bautista’s 2011 Home Run Total Leave a Reply

  1. Jobus_Rum 5 years ago

    Not one of those experts covers the Blue Jays. I bet between the lot of them they saw the Blues Jays play ten times

    • No idea why you would assume national baseball writers would ignore the Blue Jays, kind of a silly assumption. Additionally, Jordan Bastian is their MLB.com beat writer and he’s included.

      • Jobus_Rum 5 years ago

        Didn’t notice Bastian in there. Gammons and Heyman probably couldn’t pick Bautista’s pic out of a book of Mugshots.

        Just think the whole thing is kind of pointless.

        • AceGunderson 5 years ago

          I can’t tell you how many ultimately “pointless” baseball conversations/predictions/musings I’ve had with other baseball fans just for the sake of talking baseball…isn’t that part of the appeal? :)

        • why are you assuming what gammons and heyman know? do you hang out with them and not talk about the blue jays?

          • Encarnacion's Parrot 5 years ago

            Can’t say much on Gammons, but Heyman has proven time and time again that he doesn’t know much about anything.

          • Encarnacion's Parrot 5 years ago

            Can’t say much on Gammons, but Heyman has proven time and time again that he doesn’t know much about anything.

    • basemonkey 5 years ago

      Rosenthal and Olney originally have Baltimore ties, and, a lot of existing relationships with the AL East beat. One of which, Bautista was a Rule V pick with the Os and they were definitely familiar with him while he was an Oriole, as shortlived as it was.

  2. 20 homers….and a 50 game suspension for PEDs

  3. AceGunderson 5 years ago

    Wow…it’s amazing how math works sometimes.

    (People who are labeled experts) + (Athletes who have a huge spike in production) = (Anonymous venom from baseball fans)

    • Roland 5 years ago

      I’ll give you that!! But you don’t find it odd that his totals sky rocketed as much as they did??

      • AceGunderson 5 years ago

        Sure…any reasonable person would be baffled. But emotionally charged either way? Surely you jest…

  4. AJCBE 5 years ago

    I’m really getting tired of this discussion. I think this is a case where we just have to let the Blue Jays front office deal with the headache of determining if the guy is legit. At least that’s what I’m going to do.

  5. AmericanMovieFan 5 years ago

    Nobody knows how this will play out. Nobody. Was he on PEDs? Did he really find that sweet power swing through years of tireless tweaking and effort? Did he burn himself out? Will he injure himself? Will he have power from now on but not 54 HR power? Will pitchers ‘figure him out’, dropping him to a .200 BA and 20+ less HR’s? WHO KNOWS! I say pay him for this year arb. style, meaning $7-10MM for 2011 and then see what happens between now and the 2011 off-season.

  6. alphabet_soup5 5 years ago

    Bautista September 1, 2009 – End of Season .257/.339/.606 10 HR
    Bautista 2010 .260/.378/.617 54 HR

    • AmericanMovieFan 5 years ago

      He was basically on pace for a 60 HR season in the last month of 2009, then lo and behold in 2010 he maintains that torrid pace. The question is WHY did his HR pace change? Where did his power come from? Was it PEDs? I still say we need a second full season of at least 35 HR’s and 100 RBI’s to determine his true value. But then it’s a question of, at what point would you trust his bat and pay him for seasons not yet played? This is the problem with being a nearly below average player for many years and then suddenly being the most potent bat in the league. Nobody can gauge your true value, not even yourself, so nobody is comfortable with any possible contracts since they’re either going to overpay you, or you’re going to accept less than you deserve. He’s actually hurt his long term value with this season I think.

  7. penpaper 5 years ago

    I predict 30-35 home runs. I feel that’s a safe prediction for someone who if indeed has changed but has only one legit power season(end of 09 season notwithstanding)

  8. Bill Simmons said it best in a recent piece:

    Two weeks ago, I posted the following tweet: “Whoa! 54 home runs for Jose Bautista. Tied for 19th all-time. Nobody from 1962 to 1996 hit that many. I’m still buying it. Like his swing.”

    ESPN’s Jeff MacGregor noticed that tweet and turned it into a column. I loved his angle: He was saddened that a fellow writer felt obligated to let people know that he was “buying” Bautista, like this was some sort of controversial stance. And really, it shouldn’t be. Watch this video of Bautista’s home runs: no suspicious opposite-field cheapies, no lazy fly balls that kept carrying, just bomb after bomb cranked to left field. He’s a dead-pull hitter blessed with quick hands. He blossomed later than most. I am still buying it.

    “That might be the tipping point phrase for 21st century sports right there,” MacGregor wrote. “What we believe to be authentic has become the exception.”

  9. CitizenSnips 5 years ago

    I liked the Brady Anderson comparison in Ben’s post, mainly because a 54 homer season following a string of 13-16 home run seasons is eyebrow raising no matter who you are. I say he doesn’t hit more than 30 in a season the rest of his career.

  10. ju1ced 5 years ago

    You nerds claiming PEDs, have probably never even seen the inside of a gym in your life. If you don’t know what you are talking about stfu.

    • Slopeboy 5 years ago

      Looking at Bautista’s resume even a fair-minded person can honestly be skeptical about what he’s done this year. Especially in times like these.That being said, we all know Baseball’s a great game because anything can happen at anytime, without rhyme or reason. Things sometimes just happen. Some numbers to maybe illustrate my point.

      YR AB HR BA OBP OPS

      ’60 499 39 .283 .371 .952

      ’61 590 61 .269 .372 .993

      ’62 590 33 .256 .356 .840

      Those are Roger Maris’s numbers before and after he hit 61 dingers. And we all know he didn’t use PEDs. I saw Maris play as a kid and can honetly say he was a more complete player than Bautista. Maris never came close to the magical 61 again and 1961 is stil considered a freak year for him. The jury is still out on Bautista, as far as I’m concerned, but I’m willing to give let him have his due for now. Because you never know!

      • moonraker45 5 years ago

        anyone who thinks steroids or hgh alone can bring a 16 hr hitter to a 50 hr hitter is absolutely downright stupid. No 2 ways about it. Hgh, steroids help, maybe a few extra dingers, you stay healthier with HGH but drugs can’t turn johnny mac in to barry bonds. So even if he is on juice, it still isn’t enough to justify the spike in power.

  11. Ian_Smell 5 years ago

    I really hope Joey Bats can continue to be a productive player. He was one of my favorite players on the Pirates and it was absolute nonsense that they cut him when they did, and it looks even stupider now. I think he’ll hit at least 25 and at most probably 45.

  12. Encarnacion's Parrot 5 years ago

    I laugh at people who scream “PEDs” when everyone knows they test players for everything half a dozen times or so over the course of a season. Also, has anyone noticed a difference in size or weight from Bautista [increased muscle mass]? I sure haven’t.

    • moonraker45 5 years ago

      Not too mention that PEDS aren’t a miracle in a syringe. . If steroids took a 15 hr hitter to a 50+ homerun hitter then we would get A LOT more players doing them. A-rod was off the juice and still hit in to the 40’s and consistently 30’s.. Barry Bonds, Mark Mcquire, roger Clemons were amazing players BEFORE the juice. people over play this ped crap way too much, if baseball was all strength then you would see muscle builders in the game. Realistically its not, someones swing is about flexibility, agility, strength, eye sight and technique.

    • moonraker45 5 years ago

      Not too mention that PEDS aren’t a miracle in a syringe. . If steroids took a 15 hr hitter to a 50+ homerun hitter then we would get A LOT more players doing them. A-rod was off the juice and still hit in to the 40’s and consistently 30’s.. Barry Bonds, Mark Mcquire, roger Clemons were amazing players BEFORE the juice. people over play this ped crap way too much, if baseball was all strength then you would see muscle builders in the game. Realistically its not, someones swing is about flexibility, agility, strength, eye sight and technique.

    • Yankees420 5 years ago

      Not that I think Bautista is on PEDs, but I thought that only minor leaguers were tested for HGH?

  13. Encarnacion's Parrot 5 years ago

    I laugh at people who scream “PEDs” when everyone knows they test players for everything half a dozen times or so over the course of a season. Also, has anyone noticed a difference in size or weight from Bautista [increased muscle mass]? I sure haven’t.

  14. Encarnacion's Parrot 5 years ago

    Just for kicks, I’ll say he’ll hit somewhere between 0 and 162 home runs. I don’t think it’s possible for anyone to hit more than one per game, but 161 is definitely realistic.

  15. BlueCatuli 5 years ago

    I liked the 33 total myself. I just think that total is way too hard to duplicate in that division.

  16. mp87 5 years ago

    Bautista is the same size. He did change his swing midseason in 2009…he did start getting the first real consistent playing time in august last year….he has a great eye at the plate….his swing is vicious and if he makes contact it is probably going a long way…nothing helps you hit more homeruns than the ability to make contact…performance enhancers only help the ball go further…he has hit towering bombs his whole career…not just this year….my guess is a dropoff in homeruns because he will walk more often earlier in the season…but not a big drop off because this year he was hitting 6th or 7th up until about the 60 game mark i think….and was awful leading off for the first week….i would actually guess a higher avg and obp and not a big drop off in homeruns because he is a great mistake hitter (because the one pitch that doesnt hit the outside corner is being pulled for a homerun) and he will have more at bats in a protected spot in the batting order. He’ll also give a fantasy owner maybe more stolen bases next year with cito gone.

    • Jobus_Rum 5 years ago

      Performance enhancers DO help you make contact. That’s why they take them. If you are stronger you can wait longer on pitches, get around quicker and make mid swing adjustments easier. The whole point of PED’s is a quicker swing. Not necessarily faster bat speed, but a quicker swing from start to finish. Most major leaguers can hit HR’s all day in BP. It isn’t getting the ball over the fence, it’s getting the bat on the ball. PED’s can buy you an extra ten feet of pitch assessment easily.

      Bonds in his melonhead heyday wouldn’t even move until the pitch was 15 feet from the plate.

      • mp87 5 years ago

        He just is not a player that had much to gain if he decided to start taking…and these things don’t start working overnight. He would’ve had to start taking while the Mitchell Report was being drafted. And did you see some of those names in the report? None of them hit 50 unless they were good in the first place, and then there were other names that you had to have though, “he took steroids? He sucked”. Needless to say Jose is a very good fielding third baseman, and has one of the best outfield arms in the league, and he can play either corner outfield, or infield. He has always had the ability to hit for enough power to have a nice career as a utility man. Have you seen what he looked at when he was hitting from the start of 2009 to now? Start of 09 he would hit the ball hard if he hit it…unfortunately his swing looked pretty bad. Around the all star break last season he spent time with the hitting coach and during BP started changing his swing from then and was using it in games by the start of August. Things started to come together, and he took off in September to finish last season. Combine that with a great eye…he didn’t hit many pitches out that were shockers…he generally was able to wait for a pretty bad pitch…like how Burnett was prone to leaving a couple over the plate for him late in one game late this season. And do you know what his home/road HR split was? 33/21 (and remember the jays had to play 3 extra road games this year because the schedule makers are geniuses). I bet he wouldve hit 1, maybe 2 more if he was in this seasons homer dome. (146/257 homeruns as a team hit at home so he wasn’t alone on the team enjoying the building)

        And clarify “The whole point of PED’s is a quicker swing. Not necessarily faster bat speed, but a quicker swing from start to finish.” I am pretty sure faster bat speed means getting through the zone quicker. And I still remember a report talking about the quickest bats in the league during the late 90’s. The fastest bat has still not been linked to any PEDs.

        I am by no means stating “he has not taken” but pointing out the fact that it should not be the first conclusion…now if he comes out and hits 75 next season that is a different story, but Major League Baseball has improved their system, and players would be idiots to keep taking now…I still can’t get over Palmeiro continuing after he had not taken PERIOD

  17. mp87 5 years ago

    double posted…woops

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