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Hunter Pence Rumors
The Giants avoided arbitration with Hunter Pence, agreeing to a one-year, $13.8MM contract for 2013, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter). Beverly Hills Sports Council represents the right fielder.
In his work for MLBTR, Matt Swartz projected Pence would earn precisely $13.8MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Pence, a super two player, will hit free agency following the 2013 season. Pence's $13.8MM salary establishes a new high for arb eligible players this offseason, surpassing Matt Garza's $10.25MM salary.
The Giants have five remaining arb eligible players, as MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker shows. Joaquin Arias, Gregor Blanco, Clay Hensley, Buster Posey and Sergio Romo are San Francisco's other eligible players.
Teams and players must exchange arbitration submissions on Friday, so as the end of the week approaches we can expect a number of early deals. The exchange date itself typically features many agreements for stars and role players alike. MLBTR will cover everything with updated posts and with our Arbitration Tracker.
Here are some notes on arb eligible players from around MLB…
- The Cubs and Jeff Samardzija have decided to work on a one-year deal for now, Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reports. The sides had brief conversations about a long-term deal, Levine notes. Samardzija, who turns 28 in one week, will go to arbitration for the first time following a breakout season. Even on a one-year deal he projects to earn $2.9MM.
- The Giants are expected to work out a one-year deal with Hunter Pence via the arbitration process, and though the right fielder would prefer a long-term commitment, he told Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com that he's happy to go one year at a time. “My goal in 2013 is to play every game with everything I’ve got and win that day," Pence said. Here's a complete look at San Francisco's class of arb eligible players.
Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors (read more about it here), but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Hunter Pence enters his fourth year of arbitration with a good chance of getting a fourth consecutive raise of between $3MM and $4MM. My model projects him to add a $3.4MM raise, giving him a $13.8MM salary for 2013. Pence had a pretty disappointing performance in 2012, but his career-high 104 RBI should be enough to get him a good boost. After hitting .314 in 2011, Pence only hit .253 in 2012. However, he did hit 24 home runs and play in all but two games on his way to 688 plate appearances.
Very few players have entered arbitration four different times without signing multiyear deals or being non-tendered, so players who do so are often compared with each other and with players who are eligibile for only the third time. As it happens, this makes Pence a pretty good comparison for himself last year since he had 24 home runs and 104 RBI after having 22 home runs and 97 RBI. Of course, his batting average this season was worse, and Pence will probably not be compared to himself last year anyway.
Among players who did enter arbitration for the fourth time, Mike Napoli in 2012 could be a good comparable, but his .320 batting average and 30 home runs make him a poor match, even though he only had 476 plate appearances and just 75 RBI. He did get a $3.6MM raise, however. No other fourth-time eligible players who have signed one-year deals in recent years have even hit 20 home runs, so we will need to look beyond that to find good comparables for Pence.
Since Pence’s most compelling case for a large raise comes from breaking the 100 RBI barrier, it is useful to look at the list of players who were eligible for at least their third year of arbitration and who had 100 RBI, and also restrict to players who signed one-year deals. There are only two such players: Mark Teixeira, who hit .306 and had 30 home runs and 105 RBI with 575 plate appearances in 2008 (he got a $2.7MM raise), and Jorge Cantu, who hit .289 with 16 home runs and 100 RBIs in 643 plate appearances, and only got a $2.5MM raise. Since Teixeira’s raise is five years old and Cantu had far fewer home runs, neither of them makes for great cases.
If we try to look for players with players with similar home run totals, say at least 20 but no more than 30, while also restricting ourselves to players with batting averages below .270 and with at least 80 RBI, only two players come up (among those who got one-year deals): B.J. Upton in 2012 and Austin Kearns in 2007. Upton hit .243 with 23 home runs and 81 RBI, though he stole 36 bases. Kearns hit .264 with 24 home runs and 86 RBI, and got just a $1.65MM raise, but since that case is so old, I doubt his name would come up in Pence’s case. Since both Upton and Kearns had less appealing statistics to arbitration panels (RBI matter far more), Pence is likely to easily top them.
There are some other players with 20-29 home runs who either did not get 80 RBI or who hit better than .270. Xavier Nady in 2009 is one such player. He got a $3.2MM raise after hitting .305 with 25 home runs and 97 RBI, though he had only 607 plate appearances. Adam Jones is another similar player. He hit .280 in 2011 with 25 home runs, but just 83 RBI. He got a $2.9MM raise, and Pence should be able to top that despite the lower batting average, since RBI matter so much to panels. One other such player with medium-high home runs is Luke Scott, who got a $2.35MM raise in 2011, after hitting .284 with 27 home runs, but just 72 RBI in 517 plate appearances. Pence should top all three of these guys.
If we expanded to include players who hit a little more than 30 home runs but still had averages below .270 and at least 80 RBI, we would be able to include Prince Fielder, who got a $4MM raise in 2011. Fielder hit .261 with 32 home runs, but just 83 RBI amidst 714 plate appearances. He could be a useful comparison for Pence due to his large raise.
If we really let the RBI restrictions go, we might include Kelly Johnson in 2011. This would also involve ignoring position, but at this point, without ideal comparables, he might be in play. He hit .284 with 26 home runs in 671 plate appearances, but only got 71 RBI. He still got a $3.5MM raise, though. Just falling short of nearly all of the above criteria was Casey Blake in 2008 — he hit .270 with 18 home runs and 78 RBI, and got a $2.35MM raise.
Clearly almost no one is a good match for Pence this year. The plausible names we have suggested above include Mike Napoli, Mark Teixeira, Jorge Cantu, B.J. Upton, Xavier Nady, Adam Jones, Luke Scott, Prince Fielder, Kelly Johnson, and Casey Blake. None of them are very good comparables. Almost all of them are a little useful. Pence had more plate appearances than nine of the ten and more RBI than nine of the ten as well. He only higher a higher average than one of these ten, though, and only had more home runs than four of the ten. Three of these ten players had more steals than Pence, five had fewer steals, and two had the same number.
These ten hitters got raises ranging between $2.175MM and $4MM. The median raise in the group was $3.05MM. Since these deals tend to be around two to three years old on average and Pence had more plate appearances and RBI (the more important arbitration stats, along with home runs) than most of these guys, my best guess is that Pence should be in the same range but a little higher. That makes the $3.4MM projected raise seem pretty reasonable to me.
Pence is the kind of player for whom the arbitration model I have developed is the most useful. It can struggle to identify salaries of players who are anomalously good or who have had odd career trajectories, but for a player who is far better than his peers in some statistics and far worse than his peers in other areas, the model can split the difference and come up with a reasonable projection. I think Pence is highly likely to be close to the $13.8MM salary the model projects for him.
Here's the latest on the World Champion San Francisco Giants…
- "We are open to the idea," said GM Brian Sabean when asked about a long-term contract extension for Buster Posey, though he said they were "not necessarily" open to the idea with Hunter Pence. John Shea of The San Francisco Chronicle and Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com passed along the quotes (Twitter links).
- The Giants have had conceptual talks about a multiyear deal with reliever Santiago Casilla, reports Baggarly (on Twitter). The team is not active in any trade discussions, Sabean confirmed.
- Brian Wilson is unlikely to re-sign with the Giants if and when he gets non-tendered, hears Hank Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter).
- "We're not going to do that," said Beane to MLB.com's Lyle Spencer when asked if the Athletics will trade one of their starting pitchers for a shortstop. "In years we've been successful, it's because we've had good young pitchers."
- Giants GM Brian Sabean confirmed to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick that the team will tender a contract to Hunter Pence prior to the November 30th deadline. With a projected salary of $13.8MM, Pence will be this winter's most expensive arbitration case.
- Sabean also told Crasnick that the Giants are "actively working" to re-sign Angel Pagan, Jeremy Affeldt, and Marco Scutaro. He said he's "optimistic" about all three but declined to go into detail about the talks.
MLB executives are fascinated by many of the same questions that preoccupy fans, so ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick checked in with a variety of baseball officials to get their thoughts on some offseason issues. The execs prefer Michael Bourn to B.J. Upton and they expect Zack Greinke to re-sign with the Angels. Here are today's links…
- R.A. Dickey could draw interest from ten or more teams if the Mets make him available in trades this offseason, rival executives tell Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.
- White Sox GM Rick Hahn expects to hear from many teams interested in acquiring some of Chicago’s starting pitching depth, Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com reports. “We will absolutely listen on any ideas and trades will be one of the avenues we pursue to potentially fill some of our holes,” Hahn said. Gavin Floyd could be among the pitchers drawing trade interest this year, Hayes writes.
- The Giants aren’t going to non-tender Hunter Pence, even though he’ll cost $13-14MM as an arbitration eligible player, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter). MLBTR projects a $13.8MM salary for Pence in 2013.
- Tim Britton of the Providence Journal analyzes the first base market to determine some possible fits for the Red Sox.
- Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com suggests it wouldn't make sense for the Rangers to offer Josh Hamilton more than three guaranteed years with a vesting option for a fourth year. It doesn't sound as though that'll be enough to sign Hamilton, despite the questions surrounding his ability to stay healthy.
- Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter) notes that the Phillies sent money to the Giants in the Hunter Pence deal. The Giants still won't have an easy time finding an outfielder, but money shouldn't hinder their pursuit.
- As General Manager Brian Sabean insisted yesterday, the Giants' pursuit of Hunter Pence started long before whispers of Cabrera's suspension began circulating, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Schulman notes that the Giants tried to get Pence last July, when Cabrera was still a member of the Royals.
- However, the price tag for Pence was different this time around, Schulman tweets. The Astros were seeking Zack Wheeler plus another prospect for Pence and were seeking the same for Michael Bourn. The Giants acquired Pence from the Phillies for right fielder Nate Schierholtz, minor league reliever Seth Rosin, and minor league catcher/first baseman Tommy Joseph.
We took a look at both Western divisions earlier today, now we'll zero in on just the National League side..
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter) wonders if Jeff Francoeur could be a fit for the Giants. Rosenthal notes that the outfielder, owed $6.75MM next season, would likely would clear waivers. However, the Royals couldn't be expected to just give him away.
- It has been widely speculated that the Giants acquired Hunter Pence as a response to rumors surrounding Melky Cabrera's possible suspension, but GM Brian Sabean denied that being a factor, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. "We tried to acquire [Pence] at the deadline last year and he was going to be a Giant if we could find a way to do it this year," Sabean said. The GM also said that there was nothing "too compelling or interesting" available on the waiver wire.
- The new Padres ownership could take the club in a number of directions, writes Chris Jenkins of U-T San Diego. The sale of the team is now complete as it was approved at the owners meetings this week.
The Reds have been nearly unbeatable since losing their top player to injury and now have the best record in baseball at 64-41. Here are today's NL Central links after another Reds win…
- The Pirates considered and rejected a trade that would have sent two minor leaguers to Arizona for Diamondbacks shortstop Stephen Drew, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports (on Twitter). The prospects — not Jameson Taillon or Luis Heredia — are at the mid-to-low levels of Pittsburgh's farm system.
- The Phillies asked the Pirates for Starling Marte, Brad Lincoln and more in possible trades for Hunter Pence, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (on Twitter). The Phillies ultimately obtained Nate Schierholtz, minor league reliever Seth Rosin and minor league catcher/first baseman Tommy Joseph from the Giants for Pence.
- MLB terminated the contract between the Cardinals and right-handed pitching prospect Andres Serrano, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. The Cardinals had signed the Dominican for $750K, but he failed the age and identity sections of his investigation, according to Badler. Brian Walton of TheCardinalNation.com had the story last month.
The trade deadline is officially behind us, but expect to see a number of waiver trades this month as teams begin to fall out of contention. Here's the latest from around the league as Wednesday turns into Thursday…
- Alex Speier of WEEI.com reports that the Red Sox held onto Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Kelly Shoppach at the deadline despite trade interest because they wanted to keep as many impact bats as possible while David Ortiz is on the DL. They also want to maintain catching depth.
- "Absolutely. That would be wonderful," said Hunter Pence to Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com when asked about signing long-term with the Giants (Twitter link). San Francisco acquired Pence yesterday.
- Earlier today we heard that the Mets and Marlins discussed a trade involving Jason Bay, Heath Bell, and John Buck, but Mike Puma of The New York Post reports (on Twitter) that Bay was never asked to waive his no-trade clause.
- ESPN's Jim Bowden graded each team's trade deadline activity, giving the Angels and Dodgers an A and an A-, respectively. The rebuilding Astros received a B+.