Archives for March 2012

West Links: D’Backs, Cespedes, Maybin

By Mike Axisa | March 5, 2012 at 7:20pm CDT

Here's the latest from baseball's two West divisions as some late night baseball is being played in Florida…

The Diamondbacks added to their depth this offseason by signing Jason Kubel, and if they do trade an outfielder it won't necessarily be Gerardo Parra according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. They could decide to trade Chris Young, or prospects Adam Eaton or A.J. Pollock instead.
All indications point to Yoenis Cespedes being on the Athletics' Opening Day roster, writes Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle. "Based on the contract, the sooner the better," said GM Billy Beane. "We're going to be open-minded."
"It is an honor to learn from him, to watch him hit, to have him tell me these things," said Cespedes to reporters (including Bruce Jenkins of The San Francisco Chronicle) when asked about playing with Manny Ramirez. "That is very, very special." Manny intends to shadow the Cuban newcomer in Athletics camp.
"For us dealing with free agency, we'd rather deal with it now rather than when a guy is a year away," said Padres GM Josh Byrnes to Jim Duquette and Kevin Kennedy of MLB Network Radio while talking about the Cameron Maybin extension. Byrnes said they also believe there is more offense on the way from their center fielder.

Pirates Notes: Walker, McCutchen, Alvarez

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | March 5, 2012 at 5:46pm CDT

The Pirates put a finishing touch on their offseason yesterday, agreeing to terms with Andrew McCutchen on a six year, $51.5MM contract extension. Here's the latest on the Pirates, starting with some reactions to the McCutchen deal…

Neil Walker told Michael Sanserino of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that Pittsburgh is lucky to have McCutchen under long-term control (all Twitter links). Walker, an extension candidate himself, told Sanserino that he'd also like to sign a long-term deal with the Pirates. So far extension talks haven’t gone very far, according to Walker.
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs agrees with Walker, writing that Pirates fans should "dance in the streets" to celebrate the contract that will keep McCutchen in Pittsburgh for his prime.
Nate McLouth and Charlie Morton were also pleased to see the deal completed, MLB.com's Tom Singer writes.
Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review has the yearly breakdown of McCutchen's contract (Twitter link).
ESPN.com's Buster Olney told Joe Giardina of Pittsburgh Sports Report that the Pirates are having trouble luring free agents to Pittsburgh. "They seem to be picking from just a different menu than some of the other teams," Olney said.
Olney added that Pedro Alvarez is the most important player to the 2012 Pirates since he could break out into a star or continue to struggle.

Poll: Which AL Team Will Have Biggest Turnaround?

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | March 5, 2012 at 4:10pm CDT

The postseason is expanding by a total of just two games, but ten teams will now qualify for playoff berths each year, so pennant races should continue deep into the summer. Though Spring Training camps are generally optimistic, there’s even more reason for hope this year, and many teams are looking to turn things around.

MLBTR readers suggested over the weekend that the Nationals, Marlins and Reds are strong contenders for 2012 turnarounds in the National League. Let's turn our focus to the ten American League teams that missed the playoffs in 2011 and determine which of those clubs might be poised for a significant turnaround this coming season.

Analyzing The 2013-14 MLB Free Agent Class

By Tim Dierkes | March 5, 2012 at 2:27pm CDT

We're always looking ahead here at MLBTR, hence our recent publication of the 2013-14 free agent class. These players project for free agency after the 2013 season, two seasons from now. We know plenty of them will sign extensions between now and then, but it's still fun to discuss.

The Under-30 Group

Adam Jones, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jesus Flores, Alexi Casilla, Carlos Gomez, Ryan Sweeney, Phil Hughes, Jair Jurrjens, and John Lannan will be under 30 for the 2014 season. Jones and Cabrera play premium positions and are in line for huge contracts if they maintain their upward trajectory over the next two years.

Position Players

The best position players on the 2014 list itself include Joey Votto, Mike Morse, Paul Konerko, Chase Utley, Cabrera, Martin Prado, Alex Gordon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jones, Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, and Corey Hart. But once you consider players with club options likely to be exercised for 2013, you might consider adding Brian McCann, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, David Wright, Kevin Youkilis, and Curtis Granderson. Votto looks like the best all-around hitter in the group. Center field could be deep, with Ellsbury, Jones, and Granderson.

Starting Pitchers

Top starters rarely hit the free agent market. Tim Lincecum, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, and Chris Carpenter head up the list, which could also include Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, and others if options are exercised. There are several potential number one starters in that mix, but two seasons have a way of changing things.

Extension Candidate: Neil Walker

By Tim Dierkes | March 5, 2012 at 12:33pm CDT

With Andrew McCutchen's extension completed, the Pirates will focus their attention on second baseman Neil Walker, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Biertempfel believes a Walker extension may be "pricier than they originally expected," but the team will still pony up. What would be a fair deal for the 26-year-old Walker?

Walker currently has one year and 166 days of big league service, meaning he'll be arbitration eligible as a Super Two player after the 2012 season. A direct comparable for Walker may be difficult to find, as few infielders with less than two years of service have signed extensions in recent years. Walker is only six days shy of two years of service. If we look at second basemen who signed extensions with between two and three years of service, we get Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler, and Robinson Cano. Their contracts ranged from four to six years, guaranteed $12-40.5MM, and had at least one club option.

Walker owns a .280/.338/.423 line in 1171 plate appearances across 286 games, with 24 home runs, 149 RBI, 138 runs, and 12 steals. Kinsler's numbers through '07 are better, aside from RBI, but not wildly different. Kinsler signed a five-year, $22MM contract that paid $13MM for his three arbitration years and $7MM for a free agent year, plus a club option on another. The contract is four years old, however. Zobrist seems another decent comparable. He had much more service time than Walker, but a similar number of career plate appearances. Zobrist trumps Walker's home run total and platform year but was similar career-wise. But even coming off an MVP-caliber year, Zobrist signed a four-year deal worth $18MM with a pair of club options. He received $14.5MM for his three arbitration years.

Neither Kinsler nor Zobrist was a Super Two player. Walker must be compensated for four arbitration years, perhaps at $18-20MM total. If the contract is to include one free agent season it'd probably be around $8MM. A five-year, $27MM deal beginning with the 2013 season could be fair for Walker. From the Pirates' point of view, Walker doesn't have the power or service time of Kinsler of Zobrist, perhaps justifying the inclusion of two club options for the Hendricks Sports client.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

iPhone App Testers Wanted

By Tim Dierkes | March 5, 2012 at 11:37am CDT

1:05pm: Our testing group is full, thanks for the emails. Testers will receive an email this week.

11:37am: We have fixed a couple of issues in our Baseball Trade Rumors iPhone app, including the commenting one. If you currently own the app and would like to help us test the latest version before we make it publicly available, please email mlbtriphoneapp@gmail.com with your UDID. Instructions on how to find your phone's UDID in iTunes can be found here.

The Next Frontier Of Baseball Analysis

By Tim Dierkes | March 5, 2012 at 11:01am CDT

The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference assembled an excellent baseball panel this year in Boston. Host Rob Neyer asked participants their thoughts on the next frontier in baseball analysis, and a few highlights follow.

Red Sox senior advisor of baseball operations Bill James gave a two-part answer. First, James feels "one of the things we most need to understand better is how levels of competition fit together so that the information we get from one level can be interpreted at another level in a way that is more helpful." James says "we really don't have a clue" how levels such as college, Double-A, and Japan fit together. Second, James believes that teams and players act in their best interest, even if it's not beneficial for the game as a whole. He gave an example of a player stepping out of the box to regain his focus. That 30 second break helps the player perform his best, but delays of this nature are bad for baseball in general, because they cause many to consider the game boring to watch.

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow wasn't actually answering Neyer's question at the time, but he volunteered his thoughts, saying, "The frontier from my perspective is really turning that player evaluation into player valuation. When Scott [Boras] and I have a conversation about a player, this player may be 12 runs above average and another player might be 10 runs above average, but there's so many other factors that go into whether I'm going to be willing to pay more or less for that player. For example, we always talk about the most likely outcome for this player, but what's the distribution look like? Is there a 10% chance that he's below replacement level, is there a 10% chance that he's above superstar level?"

Indians president Mark Shapiro spoke of an "infinite number of things that I don't know," but mentioned during the conference that "medical is an absolute separator." Agent Scott Boras focused on psychology, as a means to increasing the chances of players reaching their potential. Rays baseball operations special assistant Rocco Baldelli wonders why some players develop the ability to hit, and some do not.

The panel provided a wide array of answers, but Luhnow's resonated most with me. We often apply straightforward methods to determine what constitutes a good free agent signing, but projecting a player's WAR and multiplying by the price of a win is just a starting point. Both Luhnow and Shapiro lamented the inability to tell fans all the factors that went into a decision, so unfortunately there will always be missing information for those outside the front office.

Extension Candidate: Jacoby Ellsbury

By Mark Polishuk | March 5, 2012 at 9:25am CDT

There was some talk out of Boston about the Red Sox exploring a multiyear deal with Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason, though it's perhaps no surprise the club decided to handle its front-office shakeup and more immediate player concerns before trying to lock up a player who is still under team control through 2013. There is likely also a sense of wanting to see exactly they really have in Ellsbury before committing to a major contract.

Last season, Ellsbury didn't only bounce back from an injury-riddled 2010, he dramatically raised his own performance ceiling. Ellsbury finished second in AL MVP voting after slugging 32 homers and hitting .321/.376/.552 in a league-best 732 plate appearances, just to erase any doubts about his durability. All three totals in his slash line were career highs but the power was particularly surprising — Ellsbury had hit just 30 homers in his entire major and minor league career (2705 plate appearances) before 2011. To top it off, Elsbury also provided excellent center field defense (a 15.7 UZR/150 and a Gold Glove) and stole 39 bases.

The Red Sox avoided arbitration with Ellsbury by agreeing to an $8.05MM deal for 2012, a significant bump up from his $2.4MM 2011 salary. If Ellsbury comes even close to repeating his performance from last season, he'll earn another big raise for his last arbitration year; MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith projected as much as a $13MM salary for Ellsbury in 2013.

For our long-term price range, let's look at the contracts received by Matt Kemp and Ellsbury's teammate Carl Crawford over the last two offseasons. Kemp was also heading into his last arbitration year when he signed an eight-year, $160MM extension with the Dodgers in November. Crawford, meanwhile, was 29 (Ellsbury hits that age in September) when he signed his seven-year, $142MM free agent deal with the Red Sox on the open market.

Hard as it would've been to believe 12 months ago, power is the key statistic in determining the size of Ellsbury's extension. If he puts up another 30-homer season, agent Scott Boras will argue that Ellsbury is now a proven five-tool threat and deserves a Kemp-like contract. If Ellsbury's homer total drops even to around 20 dingers, the Red Sox will have an argument for a slightly lesser but still-sizeable contract akin to Crawford's deal.

Of the five 2012 projections used by Fangraphs, all have Ellsbury's OPS dropping significantly next season, with three of five forecasting a drop of more than 100 OPS points. It's worth noting that Ellsbury's center field defense is also not quite a proven commodity. He posted a -10.0 UZR/150 playing the position in 2009, leading to the Red Sox signing Mike Cameron that offseason to take over in center.

Presuming Ellsbury, like most players, doesn't want to talk contract once the season begins, Boston has a month to work out an extension while they still have some leverage over the length of the deal. Right now, the Red Sox could aim for a six-year extension that covers Ellsbury's last arbitration year and his first five free agent seasons. This would cover Ellsbury through his age-34 season, sparing the club at least one year of paying $20MM to a player in his mid-thirties (though the Sox could add a club option). Of course, as noted earlier, if Ellsbury's power surge continues into the start of the 2012 campaign, the leverage swings back in his direction and Boras will look for a minimum of seven years in any new contract.

Boras usually advises his clients to test the free agent market, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the 2012-13 offseason also pass without a multiyear deal between Ellsbury and the Red Sox. Two high-profile Boras clients have recently signed extensions prior to free agency — Carlos Gonzalez's seven-year, $80MM deal with the Rockies and Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal with the Angels — but neither of those contracts matches Ellsbury's situation. Gonzalez was still four years away from free agency and Weaver specifically wanted to stay in Anaheim, even at the cost of leaving millions on the table in free agency.

Though Boston has been conscious of exceeding the luxury tax limit on payroll this winter, the team obviously has the money to pay Ellsbury fair value if they want to make him part of their long-term future. A lot depends on what Ellsbury does at the plate in 2012, but a seven-year, $133MM deal ($13MM in 2013 to match his arbitration number and then an average of $20MM in each of the following six years) is definitely within reach. Ellsbury would join Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez as Red Sox players locked up through at least 2017. With Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and Clay Buchholz all on reasonable contracts that include equally reasonable team options, Boston's long-term payroll is relatively flexible for such a big-market franchise.

Photo courtesy of Tony Ding/Icon SMI

No Discount For Padres On Maybin’s Arbitration Years

By Tim Dierkes | March 5, 2012 at 8:20am CDT

There are two reasons to sign a player to a multiyear contract extension before he's arbitration eligible. One is to get a discount on the player's arbitration years as a tradeoff for guaranteeing them, and the other is to secure free agent seasons. The Padres accomplished only one of these in signing center fielder Cameron Maybin to a five-year, $25MM extension on Saturday.

Arbitration hearings lag well behind the times in terms of the statistics argued by teams and agencies. Arbitration panels consist of three base-level baseball people, and it's generally considered too risky to attempt to educate them about an advanced metric, prove its validity, and a present a strong case for the player within an hour. That's why it wasn't surprising when Matt Swartz's arbitration model for MLB Trade Rumors proved that playing time and power matter most in arbitration salaries for position players, and even batting average and steals "pale in importance to the almighty HR and RBI." Matt demonstrated that position doesn't affect salary much either.

MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith zeroed in on this point in his January Maybin extension candidate article. Maybin was quite valuable in 2011, tallying 4.7 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs. However, he accumulated this value almost entirely through skills that are rarely recognized in arbitration salaries, such as defense, baserunning, and playing a difficult position. Assuming Maybin were to just keep repeating his 2011 season – a generous playing time assumption – Matt Swartz projects arbitration salaries of $2.4MM in 2013, $3.8MM in 2014, and $5.2MM in 2015, for a total of $11.4MM. As part of the new five-year deal, Maybin will receive $15MM for that stretch of his career.

Maybin's 140 pro games in 2011 marked a career-best; he's always battled injuries. Playing time is a significant factor in arbitration salaries. Not only did the Padres lose the chance to pay Maybin less during his arbitration years if he misses significant time due to injury, but they overpaid him by an estimated $3.6MM even if good health is assumed. Perhaps Maybin's contract was modeled off Franklin Gutierrez's January 2010 deal with the Mariners, itself a clear overpay at the time for the same reasons. One key difference is that the 24-year-old Maybin has plenty of offensive upside remaining, and if the former first-rounder realizes what was once considered "wicked raw power" by Baseball America, he could justify arbitration earnings in excess of $15MM.

As I mentioned, Padres GM Josh Byrnes received another benefit by locking up Maybin: the center fielder's first free agent year at $8MM and a club option for another at $9MM. Even if Maybin does not take another leap forward with the bat, those 2016 and '17 salaries will still be considered good value relative to free agent prices. With today's savvy front offices, free agency will likely continue to appreciate defense and position scarcity more and more. As of right now, though, Maybin's agent Brian Goldberg is the winner, having secured $25MM for a player coming off a 137-game season in which he batted .264 with nine home runs and 40 RBI.

Softbank Hawks Sign Hideki Okajima

By Steve Adams | March 4, 2012 at 11:03pm CDT

The Softbank Hawks have signed Hideki Okajima, according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker. The Hawks announced the Okajima signing at a press conference. Okajima is represented by Joe Rosen.

The 36-year-old lefty looked to be jumping from one division rival to another earlier this offseason when he signed with the Yankees, but a failed physical due to left shoulder concerns voided the deal. According to Newman, Okajima downplayed concerns over his shoulder and told reporters he is eager to "show what he did in America." This will mark Okajima's first season back in his native Japan since 2006. He's appeared in Boston's bullpen in each of the past five seasons, albeit very briefly in 2011.

Okajima has recorded a 3.11 ERA in 246 1/3 Major League innings, with a 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 36.8% groundball rate. His strikeouts have dipped heavily since the 2008 season, however, and in 2010 his control began eluding him as well. He walked five batters in just 8 1/3 innings in 2011 before being designated for assignment in May when the Sox acquired Franklin Morales. Okajima has earned a total of $7MM in his MLB career to date, according to Baseball Reference.

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