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2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

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A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.

Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).

Aaron Judge | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.

Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.

2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).

That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the  past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.

By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.

If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.

3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.

Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.

The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.

Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.

Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.

If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.

That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.

Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.

There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.

Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.

Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.

If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.

7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.

A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.

Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.

Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four-  and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.

9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.

It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.

He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.

10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.

After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.

Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.

The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi

Can Edwin Diaz Get A Record-Breaking Contract?

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In the upcoming free agent class, there’s no debate about the top available relief pitcher. Mets’ closer Edwin Diaz is arguably the best reliever in the entire sport right now and will be the jewel of that segment of free agency.

Now 28, Diaz burst onto the scene with the Mariners at the age of 22, recording 18 saves as a rookie. After two more excellent seasons as Seattle’s closer, he was traded to the Mets, partly as a way for the Mariners to get out from under Robinson Cano’s contract. Though he struggled in 2019, his first season in Queens, he righted the ship over the next couple of seasons. Coming into this year, Diaz had a career 3.23 ERA with a 38.6% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 40.2% ground ball rate.

Despite that excellent body of work, he’s somehow found a way to take his game to new heights here in 2022. Through 45 1/3 innings on the year, he has a miniscule 1.39 ERA. 48.5% of batted balls against him are going into the ground, which is a career high and well above the 43.3% league average for relievers. His 7% walk rate is a few points better than the 9.1% rate for relievers around the league. But most impressively, he is striking out 52.9% of batters who come to the plate, well beyond his career high and more than double the 23.4% average for bullpen arms. That rate is easily the best among all pitchers in baseball with at least 20 innings pitched on the year, with Josh Hader coming in a distant second at 41.9%.

Diaz’s Statcast page is blood red, with the hurler coming in the 100th percentile in terms of strikeout rate and whiff rate, 99th percentile in terms of average exit velocity, barrel percentage and chase rate, and 87th percentile in hard hit rate. Hitters aren’t hitting him and rarely inflict any damage when they do. He averages 99 mph on his fastball and 90.7 mph on his slider.

If Diaz continues pitching at this elite level, could he push for a record-breaking contract, either in total dollars or average annual value? The largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher is the five-year deal signed between Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees prior to the 2017 campaign, which was for $86MM over five years, with Chapman eligible to opt out after three. That amounts to an average annual value of $17.2MM. Also worth noting, Liam Hendriks and the White Sox signed a four-year, $54MM contract prior to the 2021 season. The last year of the contract is technically a $15MM club option with a $15MM buyout. If the club chooses to buy him out, they will pay him that $15MM deferred over a ten-year period instead of paying it all out during the 2024 campaign. This unique contract, depending on how you look at it, either has an AAV of $13.5MM over four years or $18MM over three years. For those in the latter camp, Hendriks will be included in the forthcoming analysis.

When Chapman signed his contract, he was going into his age-29 season, which is the same situation as Diaz. Hendriks was going into his age-32 season. But what about performance? Here are all three pitchers in their final year before free agency, for comparison.

  • Chapman in 2016: 58 innings, 1.55 ERA, 40.5% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate, 46% ground ball rate.
  • Hendriks in 2020: 25 1/3 innings, 1.78 ERA, 40.2% strikeout rate, 3.3% walk rate, 32% ground ball rate.
  • Diaz in 2022: 45 1/3 innings, 1.39 ERA, 52.9% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, 48.5% ground ball rate.

Here’s the three seasons leading into free agency:

  • Chapman in 2014-2016: 178 1/3 innings, 1.72 ERA, 44.4% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, 41.8% ground ball rate.
  • Hendriks in 2018-2020: 134 1/3 innings, 2.21 ERA, 34.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, 33.4% ground ball rate.
  • Diaz in 2020-2022: 133 2/3 innings, 2.42 ERA, 42.7% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, 39.8% ground ball rate.

I think it’s fair to say that Diaz will be entering free agency with a less consistent track record than either Hendriks or Chapman. Hendriks’ track record, broadly speaking, was less overpowering but also less wild. The shortened 2020 season was the first time he posted a strikeout rate above 40%, but he also had never posted a double-digit walk rate. Chapman had a double-digit walk rate four times prior to reaching free agency, but also got strikeouts above 40% five straight seasons from 2012 to 2016, including a 52.5% rate in 2014. Diaz had an 11.5% walk rate in 2017 and then 12.7% in the shortened 2020 campaign but hasn’t had alarming numbers of free passes apart from that. He’s also gone beyond a 40% strikeout rate three times prior to this year, though never for two seasons in a row.

Looking just at the platform seasons, Hendriks limited walks in the shortened campaign, but got far less strikeouts and ground balls than the other two. Chapman trails Diaz in every rate category, however, with Diaz just 12 2/3 innings behind in terms of the sample size. If he can maintain this over the season’s final months, he could argue that he’s a better option now than Chapman was in 2017. Also, given that Chapman’s contract will be six years old this winter, there’s an argument that the natural trajectory of inflation should lead to Diaz getting a larger contract than Chapman, if they were considered equally talented. One thing working against Diaz, however, is the qualifying offer. Chapman was traded from the Yankees to the Cubs midseason in 2016, making him ineligible to receive a QO. Diaz, on the other hand, is a lock to receive one, meaning any team that signs him would be subject to draft pick forfeiture and potentially other penalties.

All in all, it seems like Chapman and Diaz make for fairly close comps. Hendriks was a bit older and got a shorter contract, with unique accounting measures inflating the AAV on paper. Diaz will be the same age as Chapman was at the time of his contract, both of them having strong track records and dominant platform seasons. Chapman didn’t have the QO attached but Diaz will have six years of inflationary progress helping push his dollars up.

There’s still some time for Diaz to change the calculus one way or another, and there’s also the postseason to consider, as Chapman pitched for the championship Cubs in 2016. He threw 15 2/3 innings in the playoffs that year, but not quite at his level from the regular season. The competition in the postseason is naturally higher than otherwise, but Chapman put up an ERA of 3.45 in that time, with a diminished 33.9% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and 43.8% ground ball rate. Since Diaz pitches for the Mets, who have a seven-game lead in the NL East and are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs, Diaz should get a chance to showcase his talents against the game’s highest competition and on its brightest stage. If he thrives there as he’s thrived elsewhere this year, he’ll have a chance to take the throne as the game’s highest-paid reliever ever.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Vesting Options Update: Flexen, Maldonado, Carrasco, Andrus

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Major league contracts cannot be made conditional on player performance metrics, but it is permissible for clubs and teams to agree to options dependent upon playing time. Things such as innings pitched, plate appearances or (less frequently) games started or finished are all possible goals that could allow a player to trigger either additional guarantees or the right to opt out of an otherwise guaranteed contract. It’s also permissible to tie vesting provisions to a player’s finish in award voting, as we’ll see with the final player on this list.

This year, there are seven players whose 2023 contract status is tied directly to their playing time and/or awards finishes on the season. With a couple months left in the schedule, it’s worth checking in to see how they’re progressing towards those thresholds.

Already Vested

Carlos Rodón, SP, Giants

Rodón already reached the 110-inning threshold necessary to trigger his vesting provision last month. That affords him the right to opt out of the final year and $22.5MM remaining on his deal with San Francisco, and the Boras Corporation client is sure to do just that. Rodón has backed up his 2021 breakout with another elite season. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 128 1/3 innings, striking out an elite 31.2% of batters faced while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball. The 29-year-old should receive the long-term deal that eluded him last winter, as he’s now pushing 50 starts of ace-level performance over the past two seasons and has put last summer’s shoulder soreness further in the rearview mirror.

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

As with Rodón, Verlander has already hit his vesting threshold. The future Hall of Famer needed to hit 130 innings on the season to kick in a $25MM player option for next year, a milestone he reached last week. Barring injury, he’s going to pass up on that sum and test the open market. Despite being in his age-39 season, the nine-time All-Star has returned to the top of the Houston rotation after losing virtually all of 2020-21 to Tommy John surgery recovery. He owns an MLB-best 1.73 ERA across 130 frames, positioning himself as a strong contender for a third career Cy Young award. Verlander’s swing-and-miss rates aren’t quite at his pre-surgery peak, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern given his track record and continued dominance without an elite strikeout rate. The ISE Baseball client could look to top former teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM average annual salary and shoot for an all-time record — particularly if he’s willing to accept two guaranteed years instead of holding out for a three-year deal that takes him through his age-42 season.

Should Be Imminently Reached

Chris Flexen, SP, Mariners

Flexen signed a two-year, $4.75MM guarantee upon coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contained a $4MM club option for the 2023 campaign but afforded Flexen the opportunity to override that with an $8MM salary based on his number of innings pitched. (MLBTR recently confirmed that Flexen’s vesting provision would guarantee his 2023 salary but does not afford him an opt-out clause after this season). The righty could reach that marker by tallying either 150 innings in 2022 or 300 combined frames from 2021-22.

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted yesterday, Flexen is soon to reach the latter threshold. He worked 179 2/3 frames last season, leaving him with 120 1/3 innings to tally this year. Through 21 starts, the 28-year-old has worked 117 frames. He needs just 3 1/3 more innings and should officially hit the threshold during his next start (or within two starts at the latest) barring an immediate season-ending injury. The Mariners, for their part, should be perfectly content to keep Flexen around for a reasonable $8MM. He’s been a durable source of roughly league average innings, posting an ERA of 3.73 since landing in the Pacific Northwest. Flexen doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s avoided the injured list and thrown plenty of strikes. He’s a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation arm for a team with a spacious home ballpark and a strong defense behind him, and Seattle’s 2023 payroll slate is plenty reasonable.

Martín Maldonado, C, Astros

Last April, the Astros preemptively kept Maldonado from getting to the open market after the 2021 season. They signed him to a $5MM pact for 2022, and the deal contained a matching vesting provision for the following year. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to report that Maldonado would lock in the $5MM salary for 2023 if he appeared in 90 games during the ’22 campaign.

Heading into play Tuesday, Maldonado has gotten into 82 contests. The 35-year-old (36 next week) has continued to pick up the bulk of the playing time even after Houston acquired Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox just before the trade deadline. Maldonado has been behind the dish for four of Houston’s six games since August 2, with Vázquez picking up the other two starts. Maldonado should get to the 90-game threshold with ease (again, barring imminent injury), likely within about two weeks.

Vázquez is ticketed for free agency after the season, so Maldonado should hold onto his primary catching job next year. It’s possible the Astros bring in a 1B complement, particularly with prospect Korey Lee struggling at Triple-A, but it seems they’ll be content to turn things over to Maldonado for a fourth straight season. The veteran has always been one of the game’s worst hitters, and that’s continued this season. He owns a .183/.244/.357 line across 278 plate appearances. He’s hitting for a bit more power than usual but posting one of his worst years from an on-base perspective. He’s also rated as a below-average defender this year in the estimation of public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s pitch framing.

The Astros have maintained that Maldonado’s game-calling acumen and ability to handle a pitching staff is elite, however. That’s not going to show up on his statistical ledger, but the organization has backed up those assertions by continuing to pencil Maldonado into the lineup on most days. They’ve got no shortage of offensive firepower elsewhere around the diamond. Maldonado’s poor numbers haven’t stopped the team from racing to 30 games above .500, and they’ve had arguably baseball’s top pitching staff. One can debate how much credit Maldonado deserves for that, but he’s probably bringing some amount of on-field value that’s not quantifiable.

Attainable But Borderline

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

Carrasco has a $14MM club option for next season on a contract extension he initially signed with Cleveland over the 2018-19 offseason. That option becomes guaranteed if he throws 170 innings in 2022 and is expected to be healthy for the following season, according to an Associated Press report. Carrasco can’t officially lock in the latter designation until the end of the year, as he’ll presumably need to pass a physical at the start of the offseason.

He can work towards the first goal, however. Carrasco enters play Tuesday with 117 2/3 innings across 21 starts. That leaves him 52 1/3 frames short with a little less than two months to go. The 35-year-old has averaged around 5.6 innings per start to this point in the season. At that rate, he’ll need to make between nine and ten more outings, which he’s right on track to hit by the end of the year. New York has 52 games left in the regular season, putting them on pace to go through a five-man rotation about ten more times. Even a brief injured list stint would probably prevent Carrasco from getting to 170 frames, but he’s on pace thus far.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee he’d hit free agency at the end of the year if he doesn’t trigger the vesting threshold. The Mets would still retain his services via club option, and it’s possible they’d exercise it anyhow. They’re over $280MM in 2022 payroll, so a $14MM salary isn’t all that burdensome. After an injury-plagued first season in Queens, the well-respected Carrasco has bounced back with a nice year. He owns a 3.82 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. If he finishes the year healthy and remains generally productive, the Mets probably keep him around regardless.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Athletics

The A’s, on the other hand, aren’t likely to want anything to do with Andrus’ option. The veteran shortstop’s extension with the Rangers contained a $15MM club option for 2023. That’d become a player option if Andrus were both traded (as he was, from Texas to Oakland) and tallies 550 plate appearances in 2022.

Andrus has hit 366 times thus far, leaving him 184 plate appearances shy of the marker. The A’s have 52 games remaining, so Andrus needs to tally around 3.54 plate appearances per game from here on out. He’s averaged 3.66 PA’s per game through the season’s first few months, so he’s on pace to reach the mark. If Andrus continued at his current pace, he’d reach approximately 556 plate appearances at year’s end. If the A’s are intent on avoiding that situation, they could mix in a couple more off days over the next two months to prevent him from getting there.

Deliberately curbing playing time to prevent a player from reaching a vesting threshold would be grounds for a grievance filing against the team. The rebuilding A’s could point to a desire to get 23-year-old Nick Allen more regular run at shortstop as an on-field justification, even as Allen has struggled mightily through his early stint in the major leagues. If Andrus misses the vesting threshold by just a handful of plate appearances, it’s certain to raise some eyebrows around the league and in the offices of the MLBPA. There’s little question Andrus — owner of a serviceable .241/.303/.372 line on the season — is one of the nine best position players on the last-place club. Yet he wouldn’t receive $15MM on the open market and would definitely trigger the option if it vests, likely counting for more than a quarter of the A’s bottom-of-the-barrel player payroll next season if that occurs.

Not Happening

Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Dodgers

The Dodgers re-signed the ever-productive Turner to a two-year, $34MM guarantee during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contains a $16MM club option for 2023 that would vest at $20MM if Turner finishes in the top ten in MVP balloting this season. It’d vest at $17.5MM if he finishes between 11th and 15th in MVP balloting (report via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

Turner overcame a very slow start with an excellent month of July that pushed his season line up to .257/.332/.405 through 355 plate appearances. He’s having a solid year, but it’s his worst season since he landed in Southern California back in 2014. Turner certainly isn’t going to get legitimate MVP support. Would the Dodgers exercise the option regardless as he heads into his age-38 season? That feels unlikely, but perhaps Turner could play his way into it with a strong stretch run and postseason after returning from an abdominal strain that currently has him on the injured list.

Injury Notes: Brantley, Glasnow, Lucchesi, Pillar

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Astros GM James Click has “no update” on the status of Michael Brantley, who has now missed close to six weeks due to right shoulder discomfort.  In an interview with team radio broadcaster Robert Ford (hat tip to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle), Click said that “with every passing day, you have to kind of take an honest look at” whether or not Brantley’s 2022 season could be over, though the Astros are still hopeful that Brantley can eventually return.

Brantley himself told Rome and other reporters earlier this week that he hadn’t started swinging, and was “day by day” with “no timetable” about when he could start resuming baseball activities.  Considering the 35-year-old’s lengthy history of shoulder surgeries, there isn’t much Brantley or the Astros can do but wait and see if his discomfort lessens, since trying to force the issue could make things worse.  Houston has missed Brantley’s bat in the lineup, and this injury uncertainty also casts a shadow over Brantley’s free agent market this winter.  The veteran is in the final two months of his two-year, $32MM deal with the Astros.

More updates on other injury situations from around baseball…

  • Almost exactly one year ago, Tyler Glasnow underwent Tommy John surgery, ending his 2021 season and putting his participation in doubt for the 2022 campaign.  However, Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that Glasnow is “fully healthy” and said “the chance is not zero” that Glasnow could help the Rays before the year is out.  Considering that Glasnow is still at least a couple of weeks away from throwing to live hitters, mid-September might be the earlier he can return, and even then would likely be limited to bullpen work.
  • Joey Lucchesi is another TJ patient who could factor into the 2022 season, as Mets manager Buck Showalter told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters that “if [Lucchesi] can continue down the path he’s on, he’s going to be an option for us.”  Lucchesi underwent his surgery in late June 2021, and he has been working out at the Mets’ spring facility in Florida.  The left-hander posted some solid numbers as a starter for the Padres and Mets over his four Major League seasons, but would also probably return as a reliever, given that he’d need less time to build up his arm for relief innings than starter’s innings.  Since New York in thin on left-handed relievers, Lucchesi or David Peterson could add some balance to the bullpen down the stretch and into the postseason.
  • Kevin Pillar’s season was thought to be over when he underwent shoulder surgery in June, but the Dodgers outfielder was recently cleared to start baseball activities.  “I would definitely call it best case scenario,” Pillar told Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times, and his aim is to at least give the Dodgers something to think about when building their late-season roster and their playoff rosters.  “It’s trying to get myself healthy, prove that I’m healthy, get some games under belt and put myself in position where…I’m available,” Pillar said.  The veteran outfielder signed a minor league deal with L.A. in March and appeared in only four games with the Dodgers before suffering a fractured left shoulder.

NL Notes: Megill, Suarez, Pomeranz, Bettinger

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It was recently reported that the Mets are aiming to have Tylor Megill work out of the bullpen when he returns from the injured list, given that their rotation is healthier than it was early in the season. However, the team has told Megill that he will be stretched back out as a starter for next year, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

The fact that the Mets still want to try Megill as a rotation candidate is fairly sensible, given that it’s possible they will face a huge amount of turnaround in that department in the coming months. Jacob deGrom has long maintained that he’s going to exercise his opt-out after this year, despite his lengthy injury battles. Chris Bassitt has a mutual option for 2023, which is unlikely to be exercised by both sides, as mutual options almost never are. Taijuan Walker has a $6MM player option with a $3MM buyout. Though he can increase the value of that option with incentives as high as $8.5MM with 175 innings pitched this year, he’s still likely to turn that down and find more money in free agency. The Mets hold a $14MM club option over Carlos Carrasco that will vest if he reaches 170 innings and finishes the year healthy.

It’s within the realm of possibility that the Mets begin the offseason with an on-paper rotation of Max Scherzer followed by depth options like David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi. Given all that uncertainty, it’s understandable that they’d want to keep Megill in the mix. He stepped up to fill in for deGrom earlier this season and posted a 1.93 ERA through April, though he then posted an 11.48 ERA after that as his shoulder injury seemed to catch up with him.

Other notes from the Senior Circuit…

  • The Padres reinstated righty Robert Suarez from the 60-day injured list yesterday, per a club announcement. The 40-man roster already had a vacancy, meaning no corresponding move was required in that regard. Fellow righty Steven Wilson was optioned to create room on the active roster. Suarez was signed in the offseason after a five-year stint in Japan and has thrown 24 1/3 innings for the Padres this year. His 29.3% strikeout rate is very strong though it also comes with a 13.1% walk rate, leading to a 3.33 ERA on the year so far. He’s been on the IL since early June due to knee inflammation.
  • The San Diego bullpen could soon welcome back another injured hurler, as lefty Drew Pomeranz has begun a rehab assignment. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Pomeranz is expected to pitch in at least two rookie ball games before deciding next steps. Signed to a four-year deal in late 2019, the southpaw had an excellent showing in the shortened 2020 season, throwing 18 2/3 innings with a 1.45 ERA and 39.7% strikeout rate, though he also had a 13.7% walk rate. He was putting up fairly similar numbers last year before undergoing surgery to repair an injured flexor tendon, a procedure he’s still working back from almost a year later. If he can come back in a form that’s anywhere close to what he showed in 2020 and 2021, he should provide a huge boost to the Friars’ relief corps, which also just picked up Josh Hader prior to the trade deadline.
  • The Brewers announced that right-hander Alec Bettinger has been released. The 27-year-old made his MLB debut last year, tossing ten innings over four appearances with an unsightly 13.50 ERA in that small sample. He lost his 40-man roster spot earlier this year, being outrighted in May. Though Bettinger had put up solid minor league number in previous years, he’s not fared well this season, registering a 6.49 ERA through 34 2/3 Triple-A innings. After posting walk rates around 6% in recent years, he’s more than doubled it here in 2022, jumping to 12.9%. His strikeouts have also vanished, coming in at a 12.9% clip this year after being in the 23-27% in prior campaigns.

Mets Place Tommy Hunter On 15-Day Injured List

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The Mets have placed right-hander Tommy Hunter on the 15-day injured list with lower back tightness, per Tim Healey of Newsday Sports (via Twitter). In his place, David Peterson has been added to the active roster. Peterson will start the first game of today’s doubleheader, while reliever Yoan Lopez was added to serve as the 27th man for today’s twin bill.

The veteran Hunter has appeared in the bigs in every season since making his debut with the Rangers in the 2008 season. Hunter, now 36, has gone on to suit up for the Orioles, Cubs, Guardians, Rays, Phillies, and Mets. He made four appearances last year for New York, all scoreless. This year, he has made 11 appearances with a 2.51 ERA/4.02 FIP across 14 1/3 innings of work.

With the Mets rotation now intact, it’s likely this is a spot start for Peterson, though that could certainly change. The towering southpaw has been a solid rotation option for manager Buck Showalter this season, making 13 starts and another four appearances out of the bullpen. In total, Peterson has a 3.54 ERA/4.04 FIP across 73 2/3 innings with a strong 27.5 percent strikeout rate, 11.2 percent walk rate, and career-best 53.2 percent groundball percentage.

Lopez’s previous time in the Majors with the Mets was marked by a suspension he picked up for throwing for his perceived targeting of Kyle Schwarber on May 1st. He made just seven appearances with the team, giving up four earned runs across 10 2/3 innings on 10 hits and five walks while striking out 10 batters.

Cardinals Claim Kramer Robertson

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The Cardinals announced Friday that they’ve claimed infielder Kramer Robertson off waivers from the Mets, who’d designated him for assignment earlier in the week. Right-hander Drew VerHagen, who had season-ending hip surgery this week, has been moved to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the roster. Robertson was optioned to Triple-A Memphis.

Being claimed by the Cardinals completes a circuitous year for Robertson, whom St. Louis selected in the fourth round of the 2017 draft. Robertson made his big league debut with the Cards earlier this season but appeared in just two games and tallied just one plate appearance (an RBI groundout). Since that time, he’s gone from the Cardinals, to the Braves, to the Mets, and now, back to the Cardinals on waivers.

It’s easy enough to see why teams would be intrigued by Robertson, a versatile defender with impressive on-base skills, above-average speed and multiple minor league option years remaining. So far in 2022, he’s appeared with each of those three organizations’ Triple-A affiliates and posted a combined .241/.400/.362 batting line with 20 steals (in 26 tries) while logging time at second base, third base and shortstop. With Edmundo Sosa traded to the Phillies prior to the deadline, Robertson will give the Cards some additional organizational depth in the infield.

Mets Designate Kramer Robertson For Assignment

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The Mets announced to reporters, including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, a series of roster moves prior to today’s game. Recent trade acquisitions Darin Ruf and right-hander Mychal Givens have been activated, while righty Trevor May has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. To make room for those three on the roster, righties Yoan Lopez and Stephen Nogosek were optioned while infielder Kramer Robertson was designated for assignment.

Robertson, 27, has had his name attached to many transactions this year. He began the year in the Cardinals organization, getting selected to the big league club in May. He made his major league debut with the Redbirds, getting into two games but making just one plate appearance (RBI groundout). He was optioned back to the minors and then designated for assignment in June. He was then claimed off waivers by the Braves and the Mets in fairly quick succession. Both teams kept him in Triple-A for the most part, with the Mets calling him up yesterday but designating him for assignment without getting him into a game.

Between the organizations of the Cardinals, Braves and Mets, he’s gotten into 73 Triple-A games this year and has hit .241/.400/.362. He doesn’t have much power but has walked at an incredible 17.5% rate this year and enough defensive versatility to play second base, third base and shortstop. He’s already been claimed a couple of times this year and could be again, especially with many teams having just opened roster spots with trades in recent days. He will likely land on the waiver wire in the days to come.

As for May, 32, he’s been out of action for months due to a stress reaction in the humerus of his throwing arm. He started off the season in miserable form, likely due to his arm issues, logging an 8.64 ERA in 8 1/3 innings. Landing on the IL in early May, the prognosis was that he would be sidelined 8-12 weeks, with the hurler now returning at the longer end of that window. He’s in the second year of a two-year, $15.5MM contract with the Mets. He will look to get back on track before returning to free agency, as well as helping the Mets with the stretch run. The club is currently atop the NL East with a 2 1/2 game lead over the Braves.

Deadline Recap: National League

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Following one of the wildest deadlines in recent memory — and, perhaps, the most significant deadline trade in living memory — even die-hard baseball fans could be forgiven for losing track of all the action. To get you caught up, here’s a recap of the weird, the wild, and the wacky over the last few days.

San Diego: It’s highly unlikely that anyone reading this post is unaware of the sport-shaking mega-deal that sent Juan Soto to San Diego, and there isn’t much to say about it that hasn’t already been said by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco. Though they’ll almost certainly have to run the three-game Wild-Card-series gauntlet this year, hyper-aggressive president of baseball operations A.J. Preller — who also acquired top-line closer Josh Hader in a deal with the Brewers and free-agent-to-be Brandon Drury from the Reds — has pushed all of his chips into the center of the table, effectively giving his club three seasons to win a World Series. Soto is under control through 2024, and Hader will be a free agent at the conclusion of the 2023 season.

Given the size of the package Preller sent to Washington — and the caliber of players therein — anything less than at least one title will feel like a bust. That said, that no opposing pitcher will relish the prospect of facing Soto, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. (currently nearing a rehab assignment) in order is a massive understatement, and the Friars will be a force to be reckoned with come October. In San Diego, the future is now.

Atlanta: While one of the league’s hottest teams could have been forgiven for more-or-less standing pat — particularly after locking up third baseman and MVP candidate Austin Riley to a ten-year, $212MM extension — the defending champs were once again active. President of baseball ops Alex Anthopoulos added a major piece to an already strong bullpen, acquiring Raisel Iglesias, in a last-minute deal with the Angels. The Braves also revamped the back half of their roster, acquiring Jake Odorizzi, Robbie Grossman, and Ehire Adrianza to shore up their rotation, outfield mix, and bench, respectively.

Oddly, they also subtracted a bit, sending former closer Will Smith to the Astros in the Odorizzi deal and back-end bullpen stalwart Jesse Chavez to the Angels in the Iglesias deal, but there’s little doubt that the team is stronger after the moves than it was before. Odorizzi provides depth to a rotation that includes a struggling Ian Anderson and rookie sensation Spencer Strider, who may be on an innings limit. The switch-hitting Grossman is a strong righty bat who can share time with the left-handed Eddie Rosario following Adam Duvall’s season-ending surgery. Adrianza offers cover at several positions, including second base, where Ozzie Albies’ timeline on a return from injury remains murky. Iglesias both strengthens and balances a previously lefty-heavy bullpen that, in addition to Smith, had given a great many high-leverage innings to A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek.

Milwaukee: In one of the stranger — if, perhaps, shrewder — moves of the deadline period, the first-place Brewers subtracted a pretty major piece, sending all-world closer Josh Hader to the Padres in exchange for a ready-made high-leverage replacement in Taylor Rogers, the oft-injured but wildly talented Dinelson Lamet, and a pair of prospects. It’s an on-its-face odd move for a serious contender to trade away its most dominant player, but it’s also the sort of tough decision small-market teams (a la the Rays) have had to make to keep a contention window open for as long as possible.

The addition of Rogers softens the blow considerably, and one day after dealing Hader, Milwaukee followed by acquiring righties Matt Bush and Trevor Rosenthal, further back-filling the ’pen to account for the loss of Hader. Trading Hader — who’ll be a free agent following the 2023 season and could top $15MM in salary next year– now rather than in the offseason gave the Padres two playoff runs with the superstar closer but also maximized the Brewers’ return. Outfielder Esteury Ruiz, in particular, is a largely MLB-ready addition. Devin Williams, Rogers, Bush and eventually Rosenthal give the Brewers plenty of late-inning options.

New York: To the surprise of just about everyone, the Mets — who held a three-game division lead over the Braves entering play Tuesday — didn’t make any major moves. They did add a pair of potential contributors in Darin Ruf (exchanged for J.D. Davis, Thomas Szapucki, and a pair of low-minors pitchers to share DH duties with fellow recent arrival Daniel Vogelbach) and reliever Mychal Givens. They’d been linked to Josh Bell (sent to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto deal) and Trey Mancini (to the Astros) as well as Willson Contreras and Ian Happ (both among the only significant pieces not to move). Ultimately, general manager Billy Eppler didn’t pull the trigger on a move of the scale that had been expected of a first-place team owned by Steve Cohen.

While Givens, who’s had an excellent year with the Cubs, should strengthen an already strong bullpen and Ruf will likely improve surprisingly anemic DH production, manager Buck Showalter will have to largely get by with in-house options the rest of the way.

Los Angeles: The Dodgers entered the deadline period as co-favorites to land Juan Soto and reportedly attempted to at least engage the Angels on Shohei Ohtani. Despite these lofty aspirations, the owners of the NL’s best record had a comparatively quiet deadline, with no move remotely rivaling the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner blockbuster of a year ago.

Instead, the Andrew Friedman-led front office kept things relatively cool (at least by their recent standards), acquiring reliever Chris Martin from the Cubs for utility-man Zach McKinstry and struggling outfielder/DH Joey Gallo from the Yankees for pitching prospect Clayton Beeter. Nothing the Dodgers could have done would have changed much in the regular season — even with Juan Soto and Josh Hader headed to San Diego, L.A. is all but a lock to win the NL West and a first-round bye. Manager Dave Roberts will have largely have to make do with what he’s got as the Dodgers attempt to get back to the World Series following 2021’s disappointing NLCS loss to the Braves.

St. Louis: Though they came up short in the Juan Soto bidding and watched rumored target Frankie Montas head to the Bronx, the Cardinals — who sat 2.5 games back of the Brewers in the NL Central and a game behind the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot entering play Tuesday — hardly stood pat. The Cards added left-handed starter Jose Quintana and right-handed reliever Chris Stratton in a deal with the Pirates, as well as southpaw Jordan Montgomery from the Yankees. Though the latter move came at the cost of currently injured but broadly productive outfielder Harrison Bader, there’s little doubt that the Cards emerge from the deadline with a much stronger pitching staff for the final ride of Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, and Yadier Molina than they had before.

The Cards entered the deadline with little stability in rotation beyond Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, and Dakota Hudson. With offseason signee Steven Matz still on the shelf (and ineffective when he’s been on the field), Quintana and Montgomery should immediately solidify the rotation and give the St. Louis faithful a real shot to send their aging legends into the sunset with a playoff appearance — if not a division title.

Philadelphia: Though only on the periphery of the NL East race, the Phils added several pieces at the deadline, headlined by starter Noah Syndergaard. Thor isn’t the dominant force of his first several Mets years, but he has had a solid bounce-back season with the Angels and will solidify the back end of an already solid rotation — and, perhaps, take the ball in the decisive third game in the Wild Card round.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski also added young outfielder Brandon Marsh to an outfield mix that badly needed a plus defender of this type. Veteran reliever David Robertson strengthens a middle-of-the-pack bullpen and takes the place of struggling veteran Jeurys Familia, who was designated for assignment. The Phils also picked up infielder Edmundo Sosa in a small deal with the Cardinals, adding a standout, versatile defender — albeit one with a light bat.

Washington: The departure of generational talent Juan Soto from a team that went from a World Series title to cellar-dwelling in a flash makes yesterday a sour day for Nats fans, but the haul Mike Rizzo pulled back in return for Soto (and first baseman Josh Bell) could portend much sweeter days ahead. The Nats all but emptied out the top ranks of the Padres’t farm system, adding a coterie of high-caliber prospects in left-hander MacKenzie Gore, shortstop C.J. Abrams, outfielders Robert Hassell III and James Wood, and righty Jarlin Susana alongside make-weight first baseman Luke Voit. In a smaller deal, the Nats also picked up minor league outfielder Trey Harris in a swap sending Ehire Adrianza to the Braves.

Time will tell if Rizzo’s return matches the value of perhaps the best pure hitter since Barry Bonds, but with his club unlikely to contend anytime soon and Soto making clear he had no interest in the best extension offer the Nats were willing to give him, he may not have had much of a choice. They may no longer have Soto, but Washington fans will have more than their fair share of young talent on display for at least the next half-decade.

Cincinnati: The Reds, mired in mediocrity, continued a payroll-driven sell-off. Cincinnati held several of the more intriguing pieces of the deadline period in starters Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle and versatile infielder Brandon Drury. The team broke the deadline logjam, sending Castillo to the Mariners late last week for a quartet of prospects headlined by infielders Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo. They hardly stopped there, however, shipping off Mahle to the Twins for three prospects, Drury to the Padres for one, and outfielder Tommy Pham to the Red Sox for a player to be named later.

How long it will take for them to return to contention remains to be seen, but the substantial prospect haul brought back in the last few days should help speed things along. For the time being, though, the product on the field is going to be underwhelming.

Chicago: One of the more confusing teams to read in the offseason, the Cubs had several substantial pieces — including Willson Contreras and Ian Happ — rumored to be on their way out. Instead, they’ll remain on Chicago’s north side for at least the remainder of the season. Happ has a year of control remaining, but the decision by the Cubs/ front office to hang on to Contreras, one of the better bats (non-Soto division) available at the deadline and a free agent at season’s end, is perhaps the most vexing non-move of a deadline in which trades came fast and heavy.

The team did make several deals, however, effectively emptying out the top half of their bullpen. Chris Martin is now a Dodger (in exchange for utility-man Zach McKinstry), and Scott Effross, David Robertson, and Mychal Givens were shipped out to Yankees, Phillies, and Mets, respectively, each in exchange for a minor-league arm. Whether they seek to either hold on to Contreras long-term or simply receive draft pick compensation by issuing him a qualifying offer at season’s end remains to be seen.

Miami: The Marlins — owners of perhaps the most impressive reserve of young, controllable arms in the big leagues — entered the deadline period on the far periphery of the NL Wild Card race. This is something of a disappointment for a team that shelled out real money to add pop to their lineup (they signed Avisail Garcia ahead of the lockout and Jorge Soler after it) with little to show for it, leading to speculation that the club might trade one of its many controllable arms (per the rumor mill, Pablo Lopez) for a controllable bat.

No such deal came to fruition, but GM Kim Ng did send relievers Zach Pop and Anthony Bass to the Blue Jays for 2018 first-rounder Jordan Groshans. The shortstop, who’s also seen time at third and in the outfield, has an intriguing profile and has consistently gotten on base at all levels of the minors, but his power output has fallen off a cliff in his first taste of Triple-A.

San Francisco: Despite listening to offers on impending free agents Carlos Rodon and Joc Pederson in the midst of career years, the disappointing Giants — currently hovering around both .500 and the periphery of the NL Wild Card race but well shy of last year’s torrid pace — largely stood pat at the deadline, making only a handful of minor moves. They acquired infielder Dixon Machado (from the Cubs) and catcher/infielder Ford Proctor (from the Rays) before swapping Darin Ruf for J.D. Davis, pitcher Thomas Szapucki, and a pair of minor-league arms. They also traded away a handful of more minor pieces, including catcher Curt Casali and left-hander Matthew Boyd (to the Mariners for a pair of minor leaguers), and rehabbing right-hander Trevor Rosenthal (to the Brewers for another minor leaguer).

Pittsburgh: With several members of the Pirates’ loaded farm system making their way to the bigs this season, things may finally be starting to look up for the long-suffering Pittsburgh faithful. While 2022 won’t be the year that ends the club’s seven-season playoff drought, the Bucs entered the deadline as clear sellers. They made only a single significant move, sending reclamation project Jose Quintana (signed in the offseason for only $2MM) and reliever Chris Stratton to the division-rival Cardinals for a young arm with some big-league experience in Johan Oviedo and third base prospect Malcom Nunez.

Arizona: A team on the rise but with little to offer in the way of attractive rental talent, the Diamondbacks had one of the quieter deadlines across the majors. They did make a pair of moves, however, shipping David Peralta to the Rays for low-minors catcher Christian Cerda and righty Luke Weaver to the Royals for 26-year-old corner infielder Emmanuel Rivera, who hasn’t hit much in parts of two big-league seasons but showed real pop in the minors.

Colorado: The Rockies gave the rumor mill a bit of grist, with starter Chad Kuhl and reliever Carlos Estevez both reportedly drawing interest, but they ended the day the only team in the majors not to make a trade in the deadline period. They did shell out a bit of money, signing 37-year-old closer Daniel Bard to a two-year, $19MM extension on Saturday — a move that perplexed many onlookers given Bard’s age and status as an otherwise prototypical trade candidate.

Mets To Acquire Mychal Givens

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The Mets have agreed to acquire right-handed reliever Mychal Givens from the Cubs, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets. Righty Saul Gonzalez is going back to the Cubs, the teams announced upon confirming the deal.

Givens, 32, pitched well for the Cubs this year with a 2.66 ERA, 29.7 K%, 11.0 BB%, and 41.4% groundball rate in 40 2/3 innings.  The Cubs signed the longtime Orioles veteran as a free agent to a $5MM deal in March.

The Cubs spent a total of $12.75MM on Givens, David Robertson, Chris Martin, and Daniel Norris.  Norris was released in late July, but otherwise the Cubs’ investment (of which they’ve only paid out two-thirds) has netted them the aforementioned Saul Gonzalez as well as pitching prospect Ben Brown from the Phillies in the Robertson deal plus utility man Zach McKinstry from the Dodgers for Martin.  The Cubs also added Hayden Wesneski from the Yankees for Scott Effross, a 15th round draft pick of theirs in 2015.  The Cubs’ trade deadline is perhaps more notable for who they did not trade, with Willson Contreras and Ian Happ staying put.

For the Mets, Givens joins a bullpen headed by Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, and Seth Lugo, with rookie Colin Holderman having been sent to Pittsburgh in the Daniel Vogelbach deal.  Smith hit the IL last week with a lat strain, while veteran Trevor May will rejoin the Mets tomorrow after missing three months due to a stress reaction in his right humerus.  The Mets also have Tylor Megill on the mend, who stands a good chance of working out of the bullpen when he’s able to return from a shoulder injury.  Givens is reunited with manager Buck Showalter, under whom he pitched for the first four years of his career, as well as former Orioles teammate Tommy Hunter.

Mets GM Billy Eppler opted for a modest trade deadline after an active offseason, with his team sitting 3.5 games ahead of the Braves in the NL East.  The Mets acquired a new DH platoon of Vogelbach and Darin Ruf, also adding utility outfielder Tyler Naquin and reliever Phillip Diehl.  The biggest addition may be ace Jacob deGrom, currently making his season debut at Nationals Park against a depleted Nationals lineup.  The rival Braves went notably bigger in their bullpen augmentation, adding the pricey Raisel Iglesias in a deal with the Angels.

The pitching prospect the Cubs netted in this trade, Gonzalez, is a 22-year-old righty born in Puerto Rico.  The Mets drafted him in the 23rd round back in 2018, and he spent the season working out of the bullpen of the organization’s A-ball affiliate.  It’s been a successful 25 2/3 innings for Gonzalez, who sports a 26.7 K% and 6.7 BB%.

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