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Archives for September 2015

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

  • In the latest edition of Tim Dierkes’ power rankings, slugger Chris Davis is slotted at No. 4 with more earning power than Yoenis Cespedes, who is No. 5.  Click the link to see his entire top ten list, including a couple of honorable mentions.
  • On the most recent edition of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, host Jeff Todd spoke with veteran right-hander David Aardsma to talk about how the veteran reliever is navigating the later stages of his career.  Aardsma offered his thoughts on the feeling of being traded and being designated for assignment as well as the difficult decision to opt out of his minor league deal with the Dodgers this year.  A new episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast will be released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
  • Recently, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account:@TradeRumorsMLB.  Each day, we’re sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball.  From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend.  So, what are you waiting for?  If you don’t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one.  Follow us on Instagram today!
  • In the most recent edition of the MLBTR Mailbag, Mark Polishuk fielded questions on Jason Heyward, Daniel Murphy and possible free agent targets for the Red Sox.
  • Last week, Tim hosted the weekly chat.  You can get caught up by reading the transcript.
  • John Lackey should be able to find, at minimum, a two-year contract with a stronger average annual value than Bronson Arroyo and Tim Hudson, but a three-year deal wouldn’t be shocking, Steve Adams writes.
  • The Padres need to get their talent pipeline flowing and sort out the middle infield, Jeff writes.
  • The top item on the Marlins’ checklist should be to solidify its leadership positions, Charlie Wilmoth writes.

Recent September Extensions

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September isn’t a terribly active month on the trade front as players acquired after Aug. 31 are not eligible to join an acquiring club’s postseason roster. However, in recent years, we have seen some notable extensions hammered out in September.  Could we see one go down in the next week and change? Here’s a look back at some notable September extensions over the past four seasons…

2014

  • Rockies sign Jorge De La Rosa to a two-year, $25MM extension. — De La Rosa saw a strong uptick in his fastball velocity in 2014, his second full season back from Tommy John surgery.  With an average of 92.3 mph on his heater versus 91.1 mph in 2013, De La Rosa pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent ground-ball rate in 160 2/3 innings of work at the time of the signing.  This season, the hurler has pitched to a similar 4.17 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.

2013

  • Padres sign Will Venable to a two-year, $8.5MM extension. — Venable had a breakout season in terms of his power production in 2013, so the Padres moved to lock in his remaining arbitration salaries, as further 20-homer/20-steal seasons would cause the price to soar. Unfortunately for the team, Venable’s decision to opt for security looks wise, in hindsight, as he batted just .224/.288/.325  in the first year of the deal and .248/.325/.356 in 2015.  This season Venable was moved to Texas in an August waiver trade as the Rangers looked to add outfield depth.
  • Marlins sign Greg Dobbs to a one-year, $1.75MM extension. — This extension drew plenty of public scrutiny, as Dobbs’ on-field performance in 2013 (.228/.303/.300) didn’t warrant the deal. It was eventually reported that owner Jeffrey Loria negotiated the deal without consulting former president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest. The Dobbs extension would be one of many stories that were referenced when describing the rift between Loria and Beinfest at the time of Beinfest’s dismissal.
  • Giants sign Hunter Pence to a five-year, $90MM extension. — The most notable of any extension in this post, Pence was positioned to be one of the top free agents in the 2013-14 class, but he took what looked to be market value at the time to remain in San Francisco. As it turns out, the market for outfield bats was more aggressive than many had thought, with Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo landing seven-year deals worth $153MM and $131MM, respectively. Last season, Pence hit .277/.332/.445 with 20 homers.  This season, Pence has put up a similar .275/.327/.478 line, though he has seen only 52 games on the year due to injury.

2012

  • Padres sign Chris Denorfia to a two-year, $4.25MM extension. — Denorfia’s strong season led former GM Josh Byrnes to lock in his final arb years with this modest extension, and Denorfia made the deal look like a good one in 2013 by hitting a solid .279/.337/.395 with a career-high 10 homers and excellent numbers against lefties. His production fell off in the contract’s second year, but the Padres’ triumvirate of interim GMs were still able to flip him to Seattle for outfielder Abraham Almonte and minor league righty Stephen Kohlscheen.
  • Rangers sign Colby Lewis to a one-year, $2MM extension. — Lewis went down for the season in mid-July back in 2012, but he’d been enjoying a strong season and was expected to return for the 2013 campaign, making a $2MM salary a potential bargain for Texas. Unfortunately for the Rangers, Lewis had multiple setbacks and wasn’t able to take the hill the following season, but it’s not hard to see why they were interested in the low-risk deal; Lewis had turned in a 3.93 ERA over his previous 506 1/3 innings with the Rangers.

2011

  • Cardinals sign Chris Carpenter to a two-year, $21MM extension. — Carpenter led the league in innings pitched in 2011 and had been generally excellent over the previous three seasons, prompting quite a bit of praise for this deal. He, in fact, restructured his contract and took what most expected to be less money in the long run, giving up a $15MM club option in favor of this two-year deal. Of course, Carpenter would sadly throw just 17 more innings in his career before injuries forced him to retire. While it looked good at the time, this deal didn’t pan out.
  • Mets sign Tim Byrdak to a one-year, $1MM extension. — While the extension wasn’t particularly memorable and didn’t have a large impact on the 2012 Mets, Byrdak fired 30 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball and was a strong weapon against lefties, making him worth his modest salary.
  • Cardinals sign Lance Berkman to a one-year, $12MM extension. — After a huge rebound campaign in 2011, Big Puma was rewarded with this contract, but he totaled just 97 plate appearances the following season due to knee injuries. He wasn’t able to recover with the Rangers in 2013 and retired following that season, putting an end to an excellent career.
  • Marlins sign Omar Infante to a two-year, $8MM extension. — This contract paid dividends in the sense that Infante was largely excellent for the Marlins over the next half-season before being dealt to the Tigers along with Anibal Sanchez. That trade netted former top prospect Jacob Turner, catcher Rob Brantly and lefty Brian Flynn — a respectable haul at the time but one that now looks lackluster. Miami dealt Turner to the Cubs for a pair of low-level relievers last season, and Brantly was passed over in favor of Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
  • White Sox sign Sergio Santos to a three-year, $8.25MM extension. — Signed at the end of a breakout season as the White Sox closer, Santos found himself traded to the Blue Jays for pitching prospect Nestor Molina that offseason. Molina didn’t do much and was outrighted by the ChiSox in 2014, but they probably feel fortunate not to have had to pay Santos the money he was guaranteed, as shoulder injuries led to a 5.23 ERA and just 51 innings pitched over the life of his three guaranteed years with Toronto.

A previous installment of this post written by Steve Adams ran in September 2014.

Cafardo On Duquette, Showalter, Hunter, Howard

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe caught up with ex-Red Sox GM Ben Cherington.  Cherington reflected on some of the decisions he regrets but he also recognizes that he left Boston with a solid core of young talent to build upon going forward.  Many of those young players remain in Boston because Cherington resisted the urge to put together a package for Cole Hamels.

“We had a lot of conversations with [the Phillies]. I just didn’t want to give up our core and we couldn’t find another way to get it done,” Cherington said of the ace, who ultimately went to the Rangers.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • There’s tension over Orioles owner Peter Angelos not allowing GM Dan Duquette to pursue a higher-profile and higher-paying job with the Blue Jays, major league sources tell Cafardo.  Sources also tell The Boston Globe scribe that Angelos has not compensated Duquette for the lost opportunity.  All in all, it’s a slight that baseball execs Duquette to be “bush league,” Cafardo writes.
  • There’s also been talk of friction between Duquette and manager Buck Showalter, Cafardo writes, although both men are signed through 2018.  Meanwhile, there’s fear that the Orioles will not spend the money necessary to retain free agents like Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, and Wei-Yin Chen.
  • The Twins want Torii Hunter back for at least one more season, according to a team official who spoke with Cafardo.  For his part, the veteran says that he’s going year to year. In 516 plate appearances this season, Hunter has posted a batting line of .245/.298/.414 which isn’t really in line with his career offering of .277/.332/.462.  However, he has played well in right field and the Twins like his veteran leadership.
  • The Phillies had a scout watching the Orioles last week in the event that the O’s lose Davis in free agency and gain interest in Ryan Howard.  Howard is not be expected to replicate Davis’ production, of course, but Cafardo notes that he still has power and would be better suited as a DH.
  • There’s “continued interest” in Red Sox utilityman Brock Holt, Cafardo writes.  Holt’s opportunities in the Red Sox’s outfield may be limited and new team president Dave Dombrowski should get a fair amount of offers this winter for him.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Estrada, Pirates, Price

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On this date five years ago, Yankees owner George Steinbrenner was honored with a 7-by-5-foot, 760-pound bronze monument of bronze in Monument Park, as Leo Panetta of NationalPastime.com writes. The unveiling of the monument was attended by estranged former manager Joe Torre, who made his first visit to the new Yankee Stadium.  Here’s this week’s look around the baseball blogosphere..

Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.

Quick Hits: Walker, Cespedes, Gyorko

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The Pirates may say goodbye to second baseman Neil Walker after the season, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Pittburgh Tribune-Review. He’s set to earn at least $10MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Due to a balky back and the availability of Jung-ho Kang, Jordy Mercer, and Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh may prefer to commit that money to another position. Of course, the Pirates will probably never reach the point of actually non-tendering Walker. Plenty of teams should be interested in a one-year flier on the 30-year-old. Biertempfel offers a fascinating look at Walker who is actually a Pittsburgh native. It’s well worth a read.

  • Pittsburgh should actually extend Walker, opines Rob Rossi of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Rossi refers to Walker as a fan favorite and lauds his clubhouse presence. Rossi suggests a four-year, $47MM contract as a reasonable compromise. Of course, the notoriously penurious club does have a wealth of affordable middle infield depth with Kang, Harrison, and Mercer on the roster. Prospect Alen Hanson is also close to major league ready. Presumably, Walker could return a decent player via trade too. While it’s tough to part with a hometown fan favorite, sometimes it’s the right thing to do.
  • A hot October could lead Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to his desired six-year contract, writes Mark Townsend of Yahoo. While teams may be concerned about offering a big guarantee through his age 36 season, they may be willing to swallow the risk if they can bank on production early in the contract. Of course, no player is a sure thing to repeat past exploits. Postseason success would certainly go a long way towards assuaging any doubts. I said the same earlier tonight when examining the players who most improved their free agent stock.
  • The Padres are pleased with Jedd Gyorko’s development at shortstop, writes Corey Brock of MLB.com. The Friars began the experiment to keep both Cory Spangenberg and Gyorko in the lineup. While there is obviously concern about his defense, his offense easily ranks among the best at the position. Advanced statistics like UZR aren’t a fan of his work, but a one month sample is way too small to form a judgment. He hasn’t committed an error and makes all the routine plays. A NL West scout even suggested that he looks more comfortable at short than second. If the club thinks he can continue to man the position in 2016, it could save them from scrounging through the free agent shortstop market.

Most Improved Free Agent Stock

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It may be premature to talk about the most improved free agent stock – after all it’s mid-September. We still have two weeks left in the regular season. More importantly, the playoffs can be a massive boon to October’s top performers. Big numbers on the biggest stage are often parlayed into bigger paydays. For now, let’s just make do with what we know.

When thinking about the players who most improved their stock, there are two angles we can consider. Some players entered the season with sky high expectations. All they had to do was get through the current campaign at a level similar to their career rates to ensure a free agent windfall. David Price and Zack Greinke have outdone themselves and could be in line to earn even more than originally conjectured.

Price, 30, has long been viewed as a reliable left-handed ace. He’s largely matched his terrific 2014 campaign, and he’s turned up the gas since joining the Blue Jays. Prior to the season, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked him as the third best free agent with a chance to reach $200MM. A minor injury or lackluster season could have easily pushed him down closer to $100MM. Dierkes’ most recent update to the power rankings has Price as the top free agent with a realistic chance to exceed Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM pact with the Dodgers. As an added bonus, Price won’t come with a qualifying offer attached since he was traded at the deadline.

While it was clear that 31-year-old Greinke would opt out of his contract with the Dodgers (assuming health), the success he has enjoyed was not wholly expected. Projection systems tabbed Greinke for around a 3.00 ERA this year. Instead, he’s worked to a 1.65 ERA through 30 starts. Home run suppression and a .231 BABIP have helped matters, but his dominance has allowed him to crawl out from under Kershaw’s shadow. Prior to the season, Dierkes thought another typical season from Greinke could get him $100MM in new money. Now he thinks Greinke could exceed Jon Lester’s six-year, $155MM deal.

Another pair of soon-to-be free agents may have increased their value by nearly nine figures this year. In a monetary sense, these are the clear victors of the most improved stock game. Neither slugger was a consensus top free agent prior to the season, but they’ll certainly be treated like royalty in a few months.

First baseman Chris Davis entered the year as an enigma. After a 53 home run campaign in 2013, Davis followed with a miserable 2014 season. For what it’s worth, I expected 2015 production somewhere around the mid-point between the two platform years. The 29-year-old has definitely exceeded that by a wide margin. Back in February, Dierkes considered Davis as an also-ran for the top 10 free agents list (along with Steve Pearce, Doug Fister, and Mat Latos among others). Now he’s fourth in the power rankings. Dierkes believes a seven-year deal worth more than $140MM is well within reach. I agree.

Right there with Davis is Yoenis Cespedes. Like Davis, he missed Dierkes’ top 10 before the season. Now he’s fifth and in a virtual tie with Davis. Dierkes projects the same seven-year contract of more than $20MM per season for Cespedes. The outfielder will turn 30 in a month and has reached new career heights with 35 home runs. His acquisition by the Mets is a big part of their current success. He’s in a bit of a mini-slump going 0-for-17 over his last four games. A slow end to the season and playoffs could remind buyers of his previous production. Alternatively, a noisy postseason could propel him past Davis.

This all begs the question – who most improved their stock? Is it the star who has all-but-secured a $200MM payday? The aging ace who’ll receive another massive contract? Or is it one of the surging sluggers?

Injury Notes: Tulowitzki, Phegley, Harvey

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Here’s the latest injury related notes from around the league:

  • Blue Jays shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is making progress in his return from a cracked scapula, writes Jaime Ross of MLB.com. The 30-year-old is still a few days from learning his timeline for return. Initial estimates suggested he’d miss two to three weeks. He originally sustained the injury last Saturday. Tulowitzki reports that he can now lift his arm, but it’s unclear when he can begin baseball activities.
  • Athletics catcher Josh Phegley has a concussion, reports Chandler Rome of MLB.com. He sustained the freak injury yesterday during batting practice when a bat clipped the back of his head. Phegley was acquired by Oakland prior to the season as part of the Jeff Samardzija trade.
  • Orioles pitching prospect Hunter Harvey has been shut down with elbow discomfort, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. It’s a recurrence of an existing problem for the 20-year-old prospect. The club intends for him to visit Dr. James Andrews before setting a course of action, but the renowned surgeon is currently out of the country. Harvey entered the season as the second ranked prospect in the Orioles farm system per Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs.

Latest On Angels GM Search

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We learned earlier today that Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler is the favorite for the Angels GM job via Joel Sherman of the New York Post. However, there is “a lot of internal support” for Angels director of pro scouting Hal Morris, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (tweet 1, 2). Crasnick mentions that owner Arte Moreno could opt to stay in house with a promotion in which case Morris may be the best candidate. I presume assistant GM Matt Klentak may also be an internal candidate, although he is widely connected to the Phillies.

In 2012, Morris was signed to his current position with the Angels. He began scouting in 2008 and played 13 seasons from 1988 to 2000 – mostly with the Reds. At the time Morris was hired, former GM Jerry Dipoto praised Morris’ “abilities in the areas of player evaluation and qualitative analysis.”

As for Eppler, he has been connected with several GM openings dating back to the Padres search last summer. He’s also interviewed with the Mariners and has been mentioned in connection to the Phillies.

Quick Hits: Belt, Mondesi, Padres

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Brandon Belt will be out of the Giants’ lineup for the time being after his second concussion in two seasons, Alex Pavlovic of CSNBayArea.com writes. His current issues stem from a slide against the Reds on Tuesday. He had difficulty concentrating during Friday’s game. “He showed symptoms last night and that’s what we’re treating him for,” says manager Bruce Bochy. Belt also missed about a quarter of last season due to a concussion. Buster Posey will take over for Belt at first base until Belt returns. Here are more quick notes from around the league.

  • Manager Ned Yost says the Royals could promote another middle infielder, according to Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com (Twitter links). Both Alcides Escobar and Omar Infante left Friday’s game with injuries. Escobar’s injury was merely a bruise, as Flanagan notes, but Escobar’s injury (an oblique strain) could be more serious. That could mean the promotion of top prospect Raul Mondesi Jr., Flanagan speculates. Mondesi has only hit .240/.279/.372 in 338 plate appearances for Double-A Northwest Arkansas this season, but he’s a strong defensive player and baserunner, so he could potentially be useful to the Royals in those capacities. He also only recently turned 20 and is about four years younger than the average player in the Texas League. In July, Baseball America ranked Mondesi the No. 25 prospect in the game. MLB.com currently ranks him 35th.
  • The Padres have a tough task ahead of them this offseason, Jon Heyman says in a video for CBS Sports. They appear likely to lose Justin Upton, who will likely get a large contract elsewhere. Heyman says he hears the Padres will probably extend Ian Kennedy a qualifying offer after a strong second half, and Kennedy will likely refuse it. After a disappointing season, the Padres will have to decide this winter whether to attempt to contend again next year or whether to rebuild, trading players like Craig Kimbrel and Tyson Ross.

Three Needs: Miami Marlins

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As the offseason approaches, we continue to outline the potential goals of this season’s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Brewers, Reds and Phillies, and the next team in line is the Miami Marlins.

Before the 2015 season, the Marlins had a splashy winter in which they extended Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich and acquired Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, Martin Prado, Michael Morse and Ichiro Suzuki, among others. But they suffered through injuries and quickly fired manager Mike Redmond, and now they’re 20 games below .500, in third place only because they’re in a very weak NL East division. Here are a few areas the club could address this offseason.

1. Solidify leadership positions. After dismissing Redmond, the Marlins made the unusual decision of moving GM Dan Jennings to the manager position. The move wasn’t a disaster, but it wasn’t a rousing success either. This month, the team fired pro scout Mickey White and reassigned vice president of player personnel Craig Weissmann, both of whom were close with Jennings.

Now, the Marlins want to replace Jennings as manager, and although he reportedly has a standing offer to return as GM, it’s unclear whether he’ll want to return, potentially with less power than he once had. The Phillies also reportedly could consider hiring Jennings, and the Mariners might be another possibility. It might be, then, that the Marlins could replace both their manager and their GM this winter (although they could simply promote assistant GM Mike Berger to fill the latter role).

2. Improve the farm system. The Marlins did take a recent step to improve their minor league system by hiring former Pirates special assistant Marc DelPiano to oversee it. Otherwise, it will admittedly take longer than an offseason to address their prospect pipeline.

Still, any upgrades they can make this winter, either by acquiring minor leaguers or by improving their development processes, would help. As Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald noted last week, it’s been an awful year for the Marlins’ minor league system — several of their top affiliates finished in last place, and their system appears to be sorely lacking in impact talent beyond 2014 second overall pick Tyler Kolek (who himself didn’t have a very good season). “[Y]ou go beyond [Kolek], and you get to guys who are not top 200- or 300-type guys,” Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper told Spencer.

Contending in 2016 will probably be a longshot for the Marlins, so one potential option is to be proactive about upgrading their base of young talent this winter. Last offseason, for example, the Braves added Arodys Vizcaino, Tyrell Jenkins, Max Fried, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, Manny Banuelos, Rio Ruiz and others to their system. The Marlins don’t have the trade chips the Braves did … unless, of course, Miami’s front office is willing to get crazy and trade Stanton, Jose Fernandez or Gordon. (Stanton has a no-trade clause.) If not, they could make smaller trades (dealing someone like Prado and replacing him with Derek Dietrich might make sense) and attempt to add talent in the Rule 5 Draft. As a baseline, they probably shouldn’t trade from the shallow pool of minor league talent they currently have.

3. Develop a long-term plan. The Marlins’ most recent attempts to contend through the acquisitions of veterans have failed — last offseason didn’t work, and the 2011-12 offseason (when they brought in Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell and manager Ozzie Guillen to drum up interest in their new ballpark) didn’t either. Now, they’ll need to decide whether the third time will be the charm, and if not, what path to pursue.

While actually contending is a long shot, some acquisitions of veterans might actually make sense, even if they only might lead to a .500-type season. The Marlins have two franchise talents, Stanton and Fernandez, under control for the long term, and they can reasonably expect better health from both next season. They can also hope for more from talented young outfielders Yelich and Marcell Ozuna (assuming Ozuna returns). Barring a trade, Gordon will be back after a strong season, along with some capable role players, including Prado, shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, catcher J.T. Realmuto, and relievers A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps. In fact, there are hints of competence or upside at every position on the diamond (although a bit of additional bench depth would help them).

What the Marlins need most in the short term is starting pitching. Their young starters behind Fernandez didn’t take significant steps forward this season, and the Marlins’ collection of starting pitching now consists of a number of hurlers who look like placeholders (such as Tom Koehler, Brad Hand, Justin Nicolino and Adam Conley) alongside wild cards Jarred Cosart, Jose Urena and the injured Henderson Alvarez. This offseason’s free agent market is rich in pitching, and acquiring a couple starters to bolster the rotation might give the Marlins a chance to be competitive next season.

They probably ought to avoid trades of young players for veteran pitchers, however, unless they come very cheaply. Last offseason’s trades of Nathan Eovaldi to New York (in the Prado deal) and two young players to Cincinnati (in the Latos deal) were arguably small mistakes that the Marlins shouldn’t repeat. Regardless of their offseason moves, it would be very surprising if they won, say, 90 games in 2016. So the long term needs to be their top priority. Their most obvious route to long-term success is to build around Stanton and Fernandez, but they could also potentially consider the less obvious route of trading them. Either way, they appear to have a long swim ahead, one that might be tough to navigate for notoriously impatient owner Jeffrey Loria.

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