Phillies Designate Cody Asche For Assignment, Claim David Rollins
The Phillies announced that they’ve claimed lefty David Rollins off waivers from the Rangers and designated infielder/outfielder Cody Asche for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Asche, formerly one of the Phillies’ top prospects, has struggled in parts of four seasons and was a non-tender candidate prior to tonight’s 8pm ET deadline.
Philadelphia was hopeful at one point that Asche, now 26, could develop into a regular option at the hot corner, but his bat has never come around at the Major League level, and Maikel Franco‘s arrival pushed him out to left field. The left-handed hitter owns a career .240/.298/.385 batting line with 31 homers in 1287 Major League plate appearances — a far cry from the .297/.359/.491 slash he’s compiled in 150 games across parts of four seasons at Triple-A.
Prior to the 2013 season, Baseball America rated Asche seventh among Phillies farmhands and noted that while he doesn’t have the prototypical power or high-level defense one would expect out of a regular third baseman, he had the potential to hit enough to land a role as a Major League regular. To this point in his career, that hasn’t panned out.
Rollins, 27 next month, has gone from the Mariners to the Cubs to the Rangers to the Phillies on waivers in a matter of two months. The former 24th-round pick has a 7.60 ERA in 34 innings with the Mariners across the past two seasons and has averaged 7.1 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9 with a 41.9 percent ground-ball rate. He’s been rather unlucky, as evidenced by a .379 BABIP, but even the most optimistic ERA estimator pegs him in the mid-4.00s (4.41 SIERA). Rollins does have minor league options remaining, so the Phils could stash him in Triple-A next year if he doesn’t break camp with the club. Then again, the Phillies may try to pass Rollins through waivers themselves at some point with an eye toward keeping him in the organization but freeing up a 40-man roster spot. No team has been able to successfully do that this winter, however.
Trade Rumblings: Braves, Wilson, Martinez, Carter
The Braves are still looking at trading for an ace even after adding Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Jaime Garcia to their rotation this winter and are specifically focused on White Sox lefty Chris Sale and Rays right-hander Chris Archer, per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (all Twitter links). The Braves prefer Sale to Archer despite the potentially higher asking price and shorter amount of club control remaining on his contract, Crasnick adds. Atlanta is receiving quite a bit of interest in top prospect Ozzie Albies (in general and not specifically from the White Sox or Rays), Crasnick adds, but they’re expressing a good deal of reluctance to part with him. The Braves don’t seem especially enamored of Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray on the heels of a down season in 2016, according to Crasnick.
Some more trade chatter from around the league…
- The Tigers have been receiving plenty of calls about their veterans as they look to get younger and cut some payroll this winter, but MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets one name that has been drawing considerable interest without generating many headlines: lefty reliever Justin Wilson. Per Morosi, Detroit has “perhaps the largest number of inquiries” on Wilson as teams look to bolster their left-handed relief corps. The arbitration-eligible Wilson is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn just $2.7MM next season, so he wouldn’t trim much payroll of the Tigers’ books. But, he could certainly fetch a nice prospect or two, allowing the Tigers to get a bit younger in the process. Wilson, 29, posted excellent peripherals that suggest his marginal 4.14 ERA will improve in 2017 and beyond (10.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 54.9 percent ground-ball rate, 3.02 SIERA).
- Morosi also tweets that the Phillies are seeking a short-term outfield bat and have inquired with the Tigers about J.D. Martinez, but talks didn’t advance much, he notes. Martinez has been one of the most talked-about trade candidates of the offseason and seems to have a decent chance of landing elsewhere this winter, but the asking price on him is apparently quite high at the moment. Newsday’s Marc Carig reported yesterday that Michael Conforto‘s name came up in talks with the Mets before New York re-signed Yoenis Cespedes. (Unsurprisingly, talks died quickly once Detroit mentioned Conforto, per Carig.)
- The Brewers are trying to trade recently-designated-for-assignment slugger Chris Carter before tonight’s 8pm ET non-tender deadline tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. The Orioles, who just claimed a player with a potentially similar skill set in Adam Walker, aren’t likely to make a play for Carter, per Heyman (whose tweet came prior to the Walker claim). Carter’s current scenario is somewhat reminiscent of last year’s Mark Trumbo situation, as he’s a player with prodigious power that the league isn’t valuing at his arbitration number due to defensive concerns, high strikeout tendencies and a questionable on-base percentage. The Mariners were able to get a nominal return for Trumbo rather than non-tendering him, but MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that Milwaukee shopped Carter around for a month before designating him, so it seems unlikely that a trade will materialize in the next six hours.
Orioles Claim Adam Walker From Brewers
The Orioles announced today that they’ve claimed outfielder Adam Walker off waivers from the Brewers. Milwaukee claimed Walker off waivers from the Twins two weeks ago but designated him for assignment last week when they claimed right-hander Steve Geltz from the Rays.
The 25-year-old Walker fits a profile that has become somewhat of a trend in Baltimore, as he possesses enormous power but brings little defensive value to the table and strikes out in abundance. The former third-round pick has received 60 and 65 grades for his raw power (on the 20-80 scouting scale), and has homered 58 times across the past two minor league seasons. However, he punched out an incredible 202 times in 531 plate appearances at the Triple-A level this season (38 percent) and whiffed at a 34.8 percent clip at Double-A in 2015. He also lacks any true defensive position, as he’s played left field recently but is projected by most to ultimately function as a first baseman or DH if he ever breaks into the Majors. The addition of the right-handed-hitting Walker gives the Orioles 37 players on their 40-man roster.
Free Agent Profile: Mark Melancon
After making three All-Star teams in the past four years and posting a sub-2.00 ERA along the way, Mark Melancon is improbably playing third fiddle on the closer market as he hits free agency for the first time in his career. Despite the competition he faces, he should be in line for a very lucrative contract.
Pros/Strengths
Melancon doesn’t flash the gaudy velocity of fellow free-agent closer Aroldis Chapman, nor does he boast Kenley Jansen‘s ludicrous strikeout totals, but he’s turned in a better ERA than either one of them since the start of the 2013 season (1.80) and has also pitched the highest number of innings of any of the three in that time (290).
In addition to that 1.80 ERA, Melancon has averaged 8.3 K/9 against a minuscule 1.4 BB/9 rate in that four-year stretch. Melancon uses his cutter to rack up grounders at an enormous rate; he’s 22nd of 222 qualified relievers with a 57.4 percent ground-ball rate dating back to 2013 and has actually been more effective against lefties than righties due to that pitch, so he doesn’t come with platoon worries. Those ground-ball tendencies and his excellence even when hitters hold the platoon advantage are among the reasons that it’s so difficult to leave the yard against Melancon. Since 2013, his 0.31 HR/9 rate trails only Wade Davis among qualified relievers. He’s given up just 10 homers in those 290 innings.
It’s true that relief pitching is a highly volatile commodity, but Melancon’s consistency goes beyond his on-field performance. He’s never been on the disabled list in either the Major Leagues or in the minors, and he’s averaged 74 appearances and 72 innings per season over the past four years. He’s also chipped in 10 playoff innings with a 3.60 ERA and has been pitching in pennant races and in the postseason since that breakout season in 2013, so he’s no stranger to the highest levels of pressure a reliever would face.
Like Chapman, Melancon was traded prior to the non-waiver deadline, meaning he was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer and thus will not require the forfeiture of a draft pick upon signing with a team.
Weaknesses/Cons
Melancon will turn 32 years old next March, making him the oldest of the “big three” closers on the free-agent market this year. His consistency and durability mitigate some of the concern that stems from his age, but the fact that a long-term deal could run through his age-35 season isn’t something that’ll be lost on teams as they negotiate with his representatives.
It hasn’t shown up much yet in his bottom-line results, but Melancon’s contact rate and swinging-strike rate have trended in the wrong direction in each of the past two seasons, and he’s also seen the rate at which hitters chase out-of-zone pitches against him decline in that time. He’s down from averaging a strikeout per inning in 2013-14 to averaging 7.7 K/9 in the past two seasons. His K-rate did bounce back a bit in 2016, but this past season represented the lowest swinging-strike rate and chase rate as well as the highest contact rate that Melancon has allowed since 2013.
As one might expect for a pitcher that recently entered his 30s, Melancon’s velocity isn’t quite what it once was. He averaged 91.9 mph on his oft-used cutter and 92.7 on a more seldom-used four-seam fastball in his first season with the Bucs, but those marks sat at 90.9 and 91.8, respectively, in 2016.
This isn’t necessarily his fault, but Melancon hasn’t proven much in terms of pitching multi-inning stints recently, and the 2016 postseason showed a perhaps-increasing trend in that direction. Melancon has just nine multi-inning appearances over the past four years, with his longest 2016 outing being a two-inning stint late in the season. Certainly, it’s not up to him to determine how managers Clint Hurdle and Dusty Baker have deployed him, but some lengthier outings might’ve done his stock a small favor.
Background
A ninth-round pick by the Yankees back in 2006, Melancon never carried all that much fanfare as a prospect. He debuted with the Yankees in 2009 but was traded to Houston alongside Jimmy Paredes to acquire Lance Berkman the following summer. The Astros flipped him to the Red Sox a year later as part of their package to acquire Jed Lowrie, and after one dismal season in Boston, the Pirates bought low on Melancon and made him one of the focal points of the trade that sent Joel Hanrahan to the Red Sox. The rest is history, as Melancon (like so many other pitchers) blossomed under pitching gurus Ray Searage and Jim Benedict while spending three and a half seasons in a Pirates uniform.
Off the field, Melancon has done work as a global ambassador for MLB in both New Zealand and South Africa, per the Pirates’ 2016 media guide. He also participated in the MLB All-Star Series in Japan back in Nov. 2014. In the community, Melancon and former college teammates Nick Hundley and Chris Woodward have run “Training with the Pros” camps for children.
Market
The Nationals are known to want Melancon back in 2017, and it’s been reported that they could deem Chapman and Jansen to be too expensive. That could indicate that he’s their preferred option in the ninth inning, and as a team that’s familiar with him and “loved” him in the clubhouse, the Nationals should be one of the top clubs in the mix for Melancon in free agency. They’re far from alone, however, as Giants GM Bobby Evans candidly second-guessed not making a larger push to acquire Melancon as he watched his bullpen falter late in the 2016 season. The Giants have met with the representatives for each of the top three closers, and securing a top-tier bullpen arm is reportedly a priority for them.
The Cubs, Dodgers and Yankees are the other three big-market teams that have the means and potential need, and any of the three could make a play for Melancon (though the Cubs are said to be trying to unearth a new elite reliever rather than pay top dollar for a known commodity). The Rangers saw some instability in their bullpen last year and released their Opening Day closer, Shawn Tolleson, earlier this offseason. The Marlins have been linked to bullpen help, specifically to Jansen, but it’s easy to see him being too expensive and Melancon being a bit more in their wheelhouse.
Melancon is a Colorado native, and Rockies GM Jeff Bridich confirmed this week that he’s spoken to Melancon’s representatives at ISE Baseball about bringing the three-time All-Star to his hometown state. That match seems like a bit of a long shot given the expected price tag (more on that below), but the Rockies could certainly use a ninth-inning upgrade. The same could be said of the division-rival Diamondbacks, who have little certainty in the ‘pen and have already bolstered their rotation this winter. New GM Mike Hazen knows a bit about Melancon, though the one season Melancon spent in Boston came prior to his breakout and was something of a disaster. The Mets, too, make some degree of sense, though reports indicate that they’re not pursuing the top relief arms, so they’d need to decide to change course in order to be more than an on-paper fit.
Expected Contract
Were it not for Jansen and Chapman, Melancon would be entering the open market with the best numbers that we’ve seen out of a free-agent reliever since David Robertson hit the open market two winters ago. Robertson was two years younger at the time but also came with the burden of a qualifying offer and had posted consistently higher ERAs. He ultimately fell just shy of Jonathan Papelbon‘s record $50MM deal when he agreed to a four-year, $46MM pact with the White Sox.
Papelbon’s record has stood longer than anyone might’ve reasonably predicted, but there’s virtually no chance that it survives this winter. And while most pundits have pegged Chapman and Jansen to shatter the record, I’m of the belief that Melancon will join them as a third reliever to break that $50MM benchmark. While I don’t think he’ll do it in as grand of fashion, I’m pegging Melancon for a four-year deal worth $56MM — a slight bump over the $52MM that he was predicted to receive in on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 free agents.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Jarrod Dyson Drawing Trade Interest
The Royals have received multiple trade inquiries on fleet-footed right fielder Jarrod Dyson, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). As is the case with teammates Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar and Wade Davis, Dyson is a free agent following the 2017 season, so the Royals could conceivably feel compelled to part with him this offseason if they receive a solid return.
The problem, as Crasnick notes, is that Kansas City would probably need to add another right field option in his place, as Dyson currently projects as part of a platoon with Paulo Orlando in right field, and Orlando is best limited to facing left-handed pitchers. Given the number of corner options on the market, though, it’s certainly plausible that the Royals could move Dyson and add an affordable platoon partner for Orlando on a one-year deal.
Dyson, 32, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a modest $2.5MM in 2017, so the scenario I just laid would probably result in Kansas City’s payroll rising a bit, unless they waited out the market and inked a left-handed-hitting veteran to a minor league deal. But, that $2.5MM figure also undoubtedly makes Dyson appealing to other teams. The lifetime Royal batted .278/.340/.388 last season, and while he offers next to no power, he’s a blistering baserunner that has averaged 31 steals per season over the past five years despite averaging just 284 plate appearances per season in that time. His wheels play well on the defensive side of the coin as well; Dyson received a +11 rating from Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield last year and +16.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions.
Dyson does have his shortcomings. In addition to the aforementioned lack of power — he has just seven career homers in 550 games — he’s also batted just .231/.305/.285 in his career against lefties, suggesting that he should continue to be platooned. Dyson’s speed, defense and affordable nature would make him an attractive target for any team looking for an upgrade at any of the three outfield spots, however, provided they can find a right-handed bat to complement him.
2016 Non-Tender Candidates
There are currently about 200 players that are eligible for salary arbitration and, and the deadline to tender each of these players a contract for the 2017 season is tonight at 8pm. As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially elect not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free-agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision a 10-20 percent chance of a non-tender. Many teams have already begun their 40-man maintenance by outrighting fringe players, trading semi-expensive veterans and making other cuts. For instance, both Chris Carter and Jeff Locke were on the initial iteration of this list, but both were designated for assignment earlier this week (making them each, in effect, non-tenders for their respective clubs).
I’ve broken the list down by division and included each candidate’s projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz in parentheses as a point of reference. For a full list of each team’s arb-eligible players, you can check out Matt’s team-by-team arbitration projections.
American League West
- Angels: None
- Astros: None
- Athletics: Yonder Alonso ($4.1MM)
- Mariners: Jesus Sucre ($600K)
- Rangers: Tanner Scheppers ($1.1MM), A.J. Griffin ($1.9MM)
American League Central
- Indians: None
- Royals: None
- Tigers: Andrew Romine ($1.2MM)
- Twins: Eduardo Escobar ($2.9MM)
- White Sox: Brett Lawrie ($5.1MM), Avisail Garcia ($3.4MM)
American League East
- Blue Jays: Darwin Barney ($1.6MM)
- Orioles: Vance Worley ($3.3MM), Ryan Flaherty ($1.7MM), T.J. McFarland ($700K)
- Rays: None
- Red Sox: Brandon Workman ($600K), Bryan Holaday ($900K)
- Yankees: None
National League West
- Diamondbacks: None
- Dodgers: Louis Coleman ($1.5MM)
- Giants: Cory Gearrin ($1.1MM)
- Padres: Alexi Amarista ($1.6MM), Hector Sanchez ($900K)
- Rockies: None
National League Central
- Brewers: Scooter Gennett ($3MM), Wily Peralta ($4.4MM)
- Cardinals: Seth Maness ($1.6MM)
- Cubs: None
- Pirates: Jared Hughes ($2.5MM), Wade LeBlanc ($1.6MM)
- Reds: None
National League East
- Braves: Chris Withrow ($1.2MM), Anthony Recker ($1MM), Paco Rodriguez ($900K)
- Marlins: None
- Mets: Rene Rivera ($2.2MM)
- Nationals: Ben Revere ($6.3MM)
- Phillies: Jeanmar Gomez ($4.6MM), Cody Asche ($1.3MM)
Nationals, Pirates Accelerating Talks On Andrew McCutchen
DEC. 2: Talks between the Nationals and Pirates have continued into the morning, tweets Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Pirates have been breaking down video footage of Nationals prospects this morning, he adds. The Nats remained “in the lead” for McCutchen as of late last night, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (on Twitter), though Morosi notes that the Rangers have been in contact with the Pirates about McCutchen as well.
DEC. 1: The Nationals and Pirates have “ramped up” their negotiations on a possible deal involving star center fielder Andrew McCutchen, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports. There are indications that the Nats would like to wrap up an agreement today; it seems the club may well non-tender shortstop Danny Espinosa if it adds McCutchen.
The connection between McCutchen and Espinosa involves Trea Turner, who could play either center or short. If Washington adds a new option in the outfield, Turner would surely move to his accustomed shortstop position, and the Nats would apparently not be interested in retaining Espinosa at a projected $5.3MM salary. (He could, of course, be traded.)
We’ve heard some chatter about possible pieces involved between these clubs, which reportedly explored a deal over the summer but couldn’t quite reach an agreement. The Bucs are said to be eyeing top outfield prospect Victor Robles, but it remains unclear whether the Nationals have any willingness to part with him. Stark notes that young, MLB-level pitchers such as Joe Ross and Reynaldo Lopez would hold appeal to Pittsburgh as well, and both (along with several other possibilities) certainly could be in play.
The Nationals would presumably utilize McCutchen in center, where he has long played in Pittsburgh. There were newfound questions about his ability to stick there after metrics panned his work in 2016, though perhaps Washington would only need to commit to him in center for a single season. Still, McCutchen isn’t quite as appealing an asset in a corner position, particularly given the risk that he doesn’t bounce back after a .256/.336/.430 year at the plate.
McCutchen also isn’t particularly cheap. With $14MM coming to him next season and a $14.5MM option for 2018, he’s hardly expensive. And that’s a pittance if he can return to his former superstar form. Having just turned 30, McCutchen represents a reasonable risk for a high-spending contender like the Nationals, though just how much willingness the team has to part with major young assets to take that chance remains to be seen.
Heyman’s Latest: Sale, Encarnacion, Astros, Martinez, Mets, Yankees, CarGo
The Nationals, Astros, Red Sox, Rangers and Braves are at the forefront of the Chris Sale market, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman in his latest notes column. However, an exec with one of those clubs that spoke to Heyman still said he’s not sure that Sale is moved at all due to the exorbitant nature of the White Sox‘ asking price. The Nationals, for instance, have been asked for Trea Turner as part of the package but have balked at the idea, Heyman notes, with one Washington source calling the budding star “too valuable” to part with. It’s similarly difficult to envision a player like Alex Bregman or Dansby Swanson being moved for Sale as well. The White Sox do like Dodgers prospect Cody Bellinger, writes Heyman, but L.A. has yet to show a significant inclination to pursue Sale, he adds. (And, from my vantage point, the Dodgers would need to add quite a bit more than Bellinger to a Sale package anyhow.)
A few more highlights…
- The Yankees, Astros and Blue Jays all remain in the mix for Edwin Encarnacion, but Heyman joins others in writing that Twitter reports of a deal between Houston and Encarnacion were premature. The Astros are being aggressive on Encarnacion, according to Heyman, though agent Paul Kinzer told him that there are “a couple” of other teams in the mix beyond this group as well. Perhaps signaling their desire to add an impact bat, the Astros made a legitimate run at Yoenis Cespedes both this offseason and last winter, Heyman adds, noting that last winter’s pursuit flew largely under the radar.
- One general manager who has spoken to the Tigers about a J.D. Martinez trade tells Heyman that he believes Martinez is “all but certain” to be traded. Detroit, Heyman points out, is now the somewhat surprising MLB payroll leader with several Dodgers hitting free agency and with the Yankees trading Brian McCann.
- The Mets would like to add not one but two left-handed relievers to their bullpen, Heyman writes. They’re interested in a reunion with southpaw Jerry Blevins, who spent the past two seasons in the organization, but other reports have indicated that Blevins is likely to receive a multi-year deal that will exceed the Mets’ comfort zone. The Mets might also consider adding catching help, though that’s not characterized as a priority in this report, which also notes that the team considers Michael Conforto to be close to untouchable in trade talks.
- The Yankees have spoken to other teams about third baseman Chase Headley and outfielder Brett Gardner but received minimal interest in that pair. Headley has $26MM in guaranteed money remaining on his deal and quietly rebounded from a disastrous start to post a solid overall season in the Bronx last year, while Gardner is owed a similar $25MM through 2018 and also has a club option for the 2019 season on his deal. Gardner would seem to have more trade value to me, and perhaps teams would show more interest later in the winter once some of the free-agent options in the outfield have come off the board.
- There’s been no formal extension offer made by the Rockies to Carlos Gonzalez, who said last week that the team has expressed interest in an extension. According to Heyman, that could be due to the fact that initial suggestions were deemed “too low” by Gonzalez’s camp to even merit an official offer. CarGo is just one year away from free agency and could be an appealing trade piece for the Rox this summer if the team doesn’t contend in 2017.
Agency Changes: Jackson, K-Rod, Gallo
A few notable agency changes from around the game that have been reported in recent days…
- Free agent outfielder Austin Jackson is now a client of Octagon, reports Tommy Stokke of FanRag Sports (via Twitter). After a pair of very nice seasons at the plate in 2012-13, Jackson’s bat has taken a significant step back, and while the resulting .260/.311/.361 batting line would cut it if he were still a premium defensive center fielder, metrics have soured on his outfield work along the way as well. Jackson also seems to have slowed down quite a bit, as the former 20-steal threat swiped just two bases in three attempts in 54 games with the White Sox last year before suffering a torn meniscus in his left knee that ended his season. Despite his veteran status, though, Jackson is still just 29 years old, so he’s certainly young enough for a career revival despite the lackluster play in recent years.
- Tigers closer Francisco Rodriguez is now represented by agents Rick Thurman and Cesar Suarez of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, per FanRag’s Robert Murray (also on Twitter). Rodriguez, the active saves leader, won’t see his current offseason impacted in the way that Jackson will by the switch, but he’s just a year removed from free agency after Detroit exercised his $6MM club option back in October. While “K-Rod” no longer boasts the mid-90s heater he did in his younger days, the 34-year-old (35 next week) has still delivered quality results over the past four seasons, turning in a 2.82 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 230 innings. And while his K/9 rate dropped to a solid-but-career-low 8.0 in 2016, he also registered a career-best 54.7 percent ground-ball rate in 2016.
- FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Rangers prospect Joey Gallo is now represented by agent Scott Boras. Gallo has yet to establish himself in the Majors and has continued to post alarming strikeout totals to go along with his enormous power, but it should also be stressed that he he also only just turned 23 in mid-November. Gallo has received 80 grades on his power in scouting reports in recent years but will need to improve his contact skills to better tap into that ability, as he whiffed in nearly 35 percent of his plate appearances last year in Triple-A. Still, given his youth, there’s time for some improvement in that area, as even in his second tour through Triple-A this past year, he was more than four years younger than his average opponent. Third base no longer looks like a potential long-term home for Gallo in Texas due to the two-year extension signed by fellow Boras client Adrian Beltre, but the slugger could land across the diamond at first base and also see some time at DH in the next couple of years.
All of the changes reported here can be seen in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains representation information on more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Latest On Dexter Fowler’s Market
The Giants, Cardinals and Blue Jays are all believed to be interested in free agent outfielder Dexter Fowler, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, who hears that Fowler’s camp is of the mind that they can land a multi-year deal that will pay the switch-hitter $18MM on an annual basis (Twitter link).
[Related: Dexter Fowler’s Free Agent Profile]
Any of the three listed clubs make perfect sense as a landing spot for Fowler. The Giants saw Angel Pagan hit free agency and have somewhat of a vacancy in left field. Beyond that, they could see a significant amount of money come off the books following the 2017 season. Matt Cain‘s ill-fated contract extension will come to a close at the end of next year’s campaign, and if he repeats the form he displayed in 2016, Johnny Cueto figures to opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM on his contract. Infielder Eduardo Nunez, too, will be a free agent at season’s end.
As for the Cardinals, they’ve been linked to Fowler for most of the offseason due to the potential void they face in the outfield. Signing Fowler would allow Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty to flank Fowler in the outfield. While many are quick to point out that Fowler isn’t necessarily a defensive upgrade over Grichuk in center — improved glovework is said to be a priority for GM John Mozeliak — an outfield alignment of Grichuk, Fowler and Piscotty would be superior to last year’s mix of Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss, Grichuk and Piscotty.
As for the Blue Jays, they’ve previously been linked to Fowler on more than one occasion but also represent an easy on-paper fit. Toronto’s primary corner outfielders from the 2016 season, Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders, are both free agents. Fowler would represent a defensive upgrade while providing the Jays with lineup balance and speed — two elements that GM Ross Atkins has gone on record to call desirable this offseason (when speaking generally and not specifically of Fowler). Signing in Toronto would surely require Fowler to shift to an outfield corner, as Kevin Pillar is arguably the game’s best defensive player, but Fowler’s reported talks with the Orioles last offseason potentially signaled a willingness to do just that. His openness to an outfield corner this winter hasn’t been stated to this point, but he’d certainly widen his market if he were comfortable shifting off of center field.
An $18MM average annual value represents a lofty goal for Fowler, who one year ago languished in free agency for nearly the entire offseason as teams were reluctant to part with a draft pick in order to sign him. Multiple reports indicated that he agreed to a three-year deal with the Orioles in February, but that deal was either never agreed to or never finalized, as Fowler wound up back with the Cubs on a more modest one-year deal worth $13MM. The decision represented a show of faith in Fowler’s talent and somewhat of a gamble from both the player and his agents at Excel Sports, but Fowler’s terrific 2016 season made the decision look wise; in 551 plate appearances with the Cubs, Fowler batted .276/.393/.447 with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases in addition to vastly better defensive and baserunning contributions.
It’s also worth noting that an $18MM annual value can mean a variety of different things, as contract length is often a larger deterrent than AAV for teams when signing players to a long-term pact. An $18MM AAV over five years would represent a massive commitment to Fowler and seems decidedly unlikely, but an $18MM AAV over a four-year term would line Fowler up for the same payday that Alex Gordon scored from the Royals last winter. That outcome seems more plausible, depending on the level of interest in Fowler, but the market for his services does seem to be more robust this year than last.
It’s probably fair to rule out the Cubs as a candidate to make a big splash for Fowler given their signing of Jon Jay and the glut of outfielders up and down the rest of their roster, but plenty of other teams make sense. In addition to the three listed by Heyman, the Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, Dodgers, Nationals, Indians and Orioles (if that bridge isn’t burned) are all logical suitors, though that list is speculative on my behalf.