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Braves Sign Brian McCann

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2:07pm: The Braves announced that they’ve signed McCann to a one-year deal worth $2MM. As agent B.B. Abbott explained to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links), McCann’s priority this winter was to return to Atlanta.

1:08pm: It’s a one-year deal for McCann, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.

12:56pm: The Braves have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent catcher Brian McCann, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com (via Twitter). It’ll be a homecoming for the Jet Sports client, who is from the Atlanta area and spent the first nine seasons of his Major League career as the Braves’ primary catcher.

McCann, 35 in February, signed a five-year, $80MM contract with the Yankees prior to the 2014 season and spent three years in the Bronx before being traded to the Astros in the 2016-17 offseason. After a solid first season in Houston that saw McCann hit .241/.323/.436 with 18 home runs and win a World Series ring, the 2018 season proved difficult for the veteran receiver. McCann slashed just .212/.301/.339 through 216 plate appearances. Injury troubles plagued McCann throughout the year — most notably a knee issue that required surgical repair over the summer.

In his return tour with Atlanta, McCann figures to share time behind the dish with 33-year-old Tyler Flowers. The pair could form a fairly straightforward platoon, as McCann has remained rather productive against right-handed pitching even into his mid-30s (with the exception of this past season’s injury-marred results). Flowers, meanwhile, has been a nuisance for left-handed pitchers, hitting them at a .278/.387/.444 clip over the past five seasons. The exact division of labor behind the plate may not even be fully determined until Spring Training, however.

Despite his knee troubles, McCann still managed to halt 32 percent of stolen-base attempts against him in 2018. He’s long been considered a plus pitch framer, though he graded out below average in that regard last season, per Baseball Prospectus. His blocking numbers, too, have declined in recent seasons. For the Braves, though, the hope will be that better health and perhaps a lighter workload can help McCann restore some of his offensive and defensive prowess. At the very least, he’ll bring nearly a decade and a half of experience working with pitchers to a young Atlanta rotation — an asset in which Braves decision-makers assuredly see plenty of value.

Mets Claim Jordan Patterson From Rockies

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The Mets announced Monday that they’ve claimed outfielder/first baseman Jordan Patterson off waivers from the Rockies. The Mets’ 40-man roster is now at 39 players.

Patterson, 27, hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2016 but has enjoyed plenty of success in Triple-A to this point in his career. In parts of three seasons, the left-handed-hitting Patterson is a .282/.363/.516 hitter with Triple-A Albuquerque, though Mets fans should be plenty familiar with the caveat that the Pacific Coast League is an immensely hitter-friendly environment. Defensively, Patterson has nearly 3200 innings in right field, more than 2000 innings at first base and more than 300 innings in left field.

Twins Claim C.J. Cron

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The Twins announced that they’ve claimed first baseman C.J. Cron off waivers from the Rays. Cron was designated for assignment by Tampa Bay last week despite a 30-homer campaign in 2018, and he’s now among the top candidates to see action for the Twins at first base and designated hitter in 2019. Minnesota’s 40-man roster is now at 39 players.

It’s not yet clear whether Cron will represent the Twins’ lone addition at first base/designated hitter this season following the retirement of Joe Mauer, but the fact that he was claimed at all makes it seem likely that they’ll tender him a contract this offseason. (The non-tender deadline looms on Friday.) Cron has ample experience at first base and has received slightly above-average marks there from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating across the past three seasons combined.

Of course, Cron’s real calling card is right-handed power. The 28-year-old (29 in January) hit .253/.323/.493 with 30 homers, 28 doubles and a triple in 560 plate appearances for Tampa Bay this past season. The Rays, though, as they did with Corey Dickerson an offseason prior, elected to designate a fairly productive hitter for assignment in part due to salary concerns and in part because they undoubtedly believe the market will ultimately yield comparable production at a lesser price. Corner bats with limited defensive value haven’t been rewarded in free agency in recent years, and the Rays could either find a more affordable alternative or could simply go with in-house options like Jake Bauers, Ji-Man Choi or Nathaniel Lowe.

Cron is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.2MM in 2019, making him a reasonably affordable add for Minnesota. Cron is controlled not only through 2019 but also through the 2020 season, so he could potentially be a multi-year piece for Minnesota if the organization is pleased with his 2019 output. Cron should have a fairly easy transition from Tampa Bay to Minnesota, weather not withstanding, as he’s plenty familiar with rookie manager Rocco Baldelli, who was on the Rays’ coaching staff last season as the team’s Major League field coordinator.

While the claim doesn’t technically mean that the Twins are committing a 2019 roster spot to Cron — he could still be non-tendered — it does seem likely that he’s now firmly in the team’s plans. That furthers the likelihood that outfielder/designated hitter Robbie Grossman, who projects to earn $4MM next season, will be non-tendered before Friday’s deadline. Minnesota could yet make some additions to the first base/DH mix next season and could potentially still add a third baseman as well, depending on the organization’s plans for Miguel Sano. A move across the diamond to first has been rumored for Sano, or the organization could simply choose to rotate the slugger between both corner infield slots and designated hitter next season.

Padres Outright Allen Cordoba, Release Colin Rea

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The Padres announced that infielder Allen Cordoba has been sent outright to Triple-A El Paso after clearing waivers. Right-hander Colin Rea, who also cleared waivers, has been released by the organization. San Diego also formally announced the previously reported releases of Cory Spangenberg and Christian Villanueva, the latter of whom is headed to Japan’s Yomiuri Giants on a one-year deal.

Cordoba, 22, was a Rule 5 pick by the Padres back in 2016 and stuck on the 2017 roster all season despite the fact that he’d never played a game above the Rookie-level Applachian League. Unsurprisingly, his struggles in the big leagues were immense; Cordoba hit just .208/.282/.297 through 227 trips to the plate. He’s yet to recover from the sizable jump up the development ladder, it seems, as he managed just a .206/.233/.310 slash in an admittedly small sample of 145 PAs at the Class-A Advanced level in 2018. He’ll remain with the Padres despite being removed from the 40-man roster, which in many ways is a good outcome for San Diego. While the Friars surely hoped for better production in the minors once he was eligible to be optioned, they can now continue to develop the Panamanian shortstop without a dedicated 40-man spot.

As for Rea, the right-hander hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2016. San Diego sent him to the Marlins in a controversial trade involving Andrew Cashner and Luis Castillo. Rea made one appearance in Miami before it was learned that he’d require Tommy John surgery, and the Marlins and trades worked out an agreement to send Rea back to San Diego in exchange for Luis Castillo (who later went on to be traded to Cincinnati for Dan Straily).

Rea, now 28, didn’t pitch at all in 2017 as he rehabbed from surgery. He returned to the mound in 2018 but didn’t find any success in Double-A or Triple-A, limping to a combined 5.73 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.67 HR/9 and a roughly 41 percent ground-ball rate in 75 1/3 innings. Prior to his elbow surgery, Rea totaled 134 1/3 big league innings between San Diego and his lone Marlins appearance, working to a 4.69 ERA with a 106-to-55 K/BB ratio. His career 4.35 FIP is a bit more favorable, but both xFIP (4.55) and SIERA (4.67) are right in line with his career earned run average.

Rea has two-plus years of MLB service time, so if a new organization can get him back on track, he’d come with another four seasons of MLB control. Presumably, he’ll draw interest on minor league deals from pitching-needy organizations this winter.

Latest On Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke

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The Phillies and Diamondbacks had recent talks about a trade centered around Paul Goldschmidt, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic, but talks crumbled when the Phils tried to include Carlos Santana in the deal. Right-hander Zach Eflin was one of multiple younger players discussed as part of a potential return for Arizona, per Stark.

It’s somewhat of a surprise to see the Phils linked to Goldschmidt. A significant driving factor behind Philadelphia’s effort to move Santana, after all, is to open at-bats for Rhys Hoskins to return to first base. Acquiring Goldschmidt would likely mean that Hoskins would remain in left field, where he ranked as one of the game’s worst defenders at any position. Then again, the Phillies are known to be casting a wide net in an effort to improve at virtually any area of the roster, and plugging Goldschmidt in at first base would make for an immensely improved lineup, even if it meant another year of Hoskins in left field.

Goldschmidt, 31, enjoyed yet another brilliant season in 2018, hitting .290/.389/.533 with 33 home runs, 35 doubles and five triples. Perennially one of the game’s premier bats, Goldschmidt is owed $14.5MM in 2019 before he’ll reach the open market and become a free agent for the first time in his career next winter. That lack of club control, the presumably enormous cost of an extension and a crowded Diamondbacks payroll have all combined to create the possibility that Arizona moves the face of its franchise this winter.

Turning to another potential suitor, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cards have talked to the D-backs about a trade for Goldschimdt. As Goold explores in great detail, the slugger checks several boxes — the Cards prefer to trade for a bat rather than sign one and are especially interested in corner infielders — but there are question marks as well. He’d only add to a deluge of right-handed bats in the St. Louis lineup, for example, and there is of course no guarantee he’d be willing to sign an extension — something the Cards would be likely to pursue.

While Goldschmidt is the best player the D-backs could move this winter, he’s hardly the only high-profile candidate to change hands. Zack Greinke, too, has emerged as a potential trade candidate, though circumstances surrounding the two are quite different. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that while the D-backs want young players or prospects back in any Goldschmidt deal — hence the mention of Eflin in Stark’s report — the primary motivation in trading Greinke would be to escape the burden of the three years and $104.5MM remaining on his contract (which includes his annual salaries and a trio of $3MM payouts as part of an $18MM signing bonus that was spread out evenly over the duration of the contract). Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM contract is the largest ever in terms of average annual value and was signed by the previous front-office regime in Arizona. At 35 years of age, the right-hander is still a highly effective pitcher, but it’s understandable that as payroll has risen beyond the organization’s comfort level, the new-look front office is hoping to unload some of that financial burden.

It’s natural to suggest that the D-backs could try to kill two birds with one stone by trading Goldschmidt and Greinke in one franchise-altering blockbuster. Attaching a player of Goldschmidt’s caliber to Greinke’s contract would hold appeal for an acquiring team, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported this morning (subscription required) that the D-backs aren’t interested in watering down a return on Goldschmidt by packaging him with Greinke. Rosenthal, in fact, notes that Cardinals already had internal discussions about attempting a trade to acquire both, but they’re cognizant of the fact that they’re on Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list. Goold tweets that the Cardinals’ inclusion on Greinke’s no-trade list is tied to geographic preferences.

It should be pointed out, too, that while Greinke’s contract is somewhat onerous, it’s not the albatross that many might think. The veteran righty has topped 200 innings in consecutive seasons with virtually identical ERAs of 3.20 and 3.21 to go along with above-average strikeout rates, elite control and solid ground-ball tendencies. Were he a free agent, Greinke would still command significant interest on a multi-year deal and would likely be regarded alongside the likes of Dallas Keuchel as perhaps the second or third-best arm available.

He likely wouldn’t top $100MM in total guarantees, but there’s a very real argument that Greinke command $20MM+ annually on a three-year deal — as Jake Arrieta did last winter. Arrieta, of course, was a three years younger at the time than Greinke is now, but he was also coming off a worse season. And given the fact that the soon-to-be 39-year-old Rich Hill is entering the third season of a three-year free-agent contract, there’s recent precedent of a pitcher in his mid-to-late 30s securing a three-year guarantee. The exact valuation of Greinke will vary from team to team, but his contract may “only” an overpay of around $30-35MM relative to what he could realistically seek on the open market.

Mariners “Actively” Trying To Move Robinson Cano

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As the Mariners’ “reimagining” of their Major League roster continues, general manager Jerry Dipoto is “actively “making an effort to trade infielder Robinson Cano, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required).

The challenges in moving Cano are obvious. Though the eight-time All-Star remained productive when on the field in 2018, he turned 36 in October, missed 80 games this past season due to a PED suspension and is owed a hefty $120MM over the final five seasons of a 10-year, $240MM contract (signed under former Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik). Cano also has the ability to veto a trade to any team, which only further muddies an already unenviable situation for Dipoto & Co.

Warts aside, Cano hit .303/.374/.471 with 10 homers and 22 doubles through 348 plate appearances when he wasn’t suspended in 2018 — including a .317/.363/.497 line upon returning from that 80-game ban. Both OPS+ and wRC+ pegged his overall offensive contribution at 36 percent better than that of a league-average hitter (after being weighted for league and his hitter-friendly home park). Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating each indicated that Cano was an above-average defender at second base in 561 innings there, and he even dabbled at the infield corners a bit in ’18.

It’s more difficult to determine where Cano could realistically be traded, however. Rosenthal adds that the infielder would likely be amenable to a return to New York City, and the report even indicates that the M’s have contacted both the Yankees and the Mets about potential deals. However, the Mariners were understandably hesitant about taking on Jacoby Ellsbury’s contract and including “significant” cash to help pay down Cano’s deal, according to Rosenthal. The Mets, meanwhile, already possess some younger intriguing options on the right side of the infield and may not want to allocate substantial resources to a 36-year-old who is signed through age 40 — even one who remains a productive hitter. The Mets have a few onerous contracts themselves, but the largest among them, Yoenis Cespedes, has his own no-trade clause.

At this point, Cano figures to be one of the many remaining pieces the Mariners will look to move this offseason. Right-hander Mike Leake and shortstop Jean Segura both surfaced in reports connecting the Mariners to the Padres last week, and Dee Gordon has been an oft-cited potential trade piece as Seattle looks to pare down a bloated payroll. Arbitration-eligible reliever Alex Colome, with a fairly large $7.3MM projected salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), also seems like a strong candidate to be dealt.

Trades of Mike Zunino and James Paxton have already shaved more than $12MM off the payroll (per Swartz’s projections) while also netting the Mariners a potential everyday option in center field (Mallex Smith) and their top new organizational prospect (Justus Sheffield). A deal involving Cano likely wouldn’t net that same type of immediate help to the MLB roster, unless it came in the form of an undesirable contract from another club, but would at least create some further payroll flexibility — some of which could be reinvested in the 2019 product.

Active as the Mariners have been to date, both of their major trades and even the rumored talks surrounding them have focused on bringing back some form of MLB talent. While the club may be “taking a step back” in 2019, it doesn’t appear there’ll be a full-fledged dismantling of the roster. Specifically, players like Mitch Haniger, Edwin Diaz, Marco Gonzales and Smith seem unlikely to be sent out, given their pre-arbitration status and four-plus years of remaining team control.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

A very busy winter is on the horizon for the Phillies, as they are poised to explore all options on the free agent and trade fronts in order to firmly return to contention in 2019.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jake Arrieta, SP: $45MM through 2020 (Arrieta can opt out after 2019 season, but Phillies can void the opt-out by exercising a two-year/$40MM club option for 2021-22)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $35MM through 2020 (includes $500K buyout of $17.5MM club option for 2021)
  • Odubel Herrera, CF: $24.5MM through 2021 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $11.5MM club option for 2022; Phillies also have a $12.5MM club option for 2023 with a $1MM buyout)
  • Scott Kingery, IF/OF: $21.75MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2024; Phillies also have club options for 2025-26)
  • Tommy Hunter, RP: $9MM through 2019
  • Pat Neshek, RP: $6.5MM through 2019 (includes $750K buyout of $7MM club option for 2020)

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Phillies Organizational Depth Chart | Phillies Payroll Overview]

The 2018-19 offseason has long been seen as a natural endpoint for the Phillies’ rebuilding process.  The team’s plan was to have a young core of talent in place by 2018, so the Phils could then spend freely within what was expected to be the most star-studded free agent class in history.  As it turned out, this winter’s free agent crop isn’t quite as historically great as it appeared even a year ago, and the Phillies haven’t quite established their foundation.  The Phils seemed to be taking that step forward when they occupied first place in the NL East as late as August 12, before a late-season collapse (going 12-28 over their last 40 games) doomed the team to an 80-82 record and its seventh straight non-winning season.

With this in mind, a couple of big acquisitions wouldn’t necessarily be the finishing touches on an up-and-coming team.  GM Matt Klentak could be considering a much more substantial overhaul of his roster, especially since Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins reportedly might be the only two truly untouchable players on the roster.  (I’d expect the team to discuss contract extensions with both Nola and Hoskins come Spring Training.)  With this in mind, it’s difficult to specifically predict what the Phillies might have in store this offseason since just about anything is on the table, and the team is already casting a wide net in exploring free agent and trade possibilities.

Sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado as the new face of the franchise?  Many pundits think it could happen (as do MLBTR’s readers).  Sign Craig Kimbrel to anchor the ninth inning and turn promising youngster Seranthony Dominguez into a multi-inning weapon?  Wouldn’t be surprising.  Sign one of Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ, or Yusei Kikuchi to join Nola and Jake Arrieta atop the rotation?  Also plausible, as Philadelphia has been linked to all four of those free agent arms on the rumor mill.  Turning to trade candidates, the Phils have reportedly already checked in with the Mariners about shortstop Jean Segura and closer Edwin Diaz, and it’s fair to assume that Klentak will make calls about just about every big name that could be available.

Whatever direction Klentak decides to pursue, he certainly doesn’t have to worry about financial limitations.  Team owner John Middleton has openly promised that the Phillies will be big spenders this winter, and they could “maybe even be a little bit stupid about” how much they hand out in future commitments.  MLBTR’s Rob Huff projected that Philadelphia might have as much as $62.25MM in payroll capacity this winter, and even that estimate might be low if the team decides to truly explode into luxury tax territory ($206MM is the new tax threshold) or if the Phils can open up more payroll space by unloading some of their current players.

The most prominent name in this regard is Carlos Santana, owed $35MM over the next two seasons.  Santana was signed just last winter by the Phillies, and while he provided above-average (109 wRC+) production in 2018, he is already being shopped since Hoskins’ left field defense was so dismal that the team wants to re-install the young slugger at first base.  In a recent examination of Santana’s trade market, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observed that the presence of other available first basemen (i.e. Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Smoak) or DH types (namely Nelson Cruz) in free agency or the trade market could make it hard for the Phillies to find a suitor for Santana.

If Santana’s contract can’t be moved entirely, perhaps the Phillies could try to deal the first baseman for another high-salaried player who is an imperfect fit on his current roster.  Speculatively speaking, a player like Ian Desmond could be a match, since the Rockies need stability at first base and Desmond can be installed into Philadelphia’s outfield (plus, Desmond gives manager Gabe Kapler a multi-positional option).  Desmond has been a negative-fWAR player over his two years in Colorado, so I’d expect any such scenario to involve multiple players to make things palatable for both sides. And that, of course, is but one of myriad scenarios the Philadelphia front office could entertain.

The Phillies have pieces to offer in just about any trade scenario one can imagine, and if everyone but Hoskins and Nola is available at the right price, it’s anyone’s guess as to who on the current MLB roster will make it to Opening Day.  At this time last year, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, and Nick Williams were all coming off strong 2017 performances and looked like possible long-term assets, yet all four took steps backwards last season and may no longer be part of Philadelphia’s future plans.

Of that quartet, Hernandez at least still produced solid OBP numbers, and likely still has the most trade value given how much interest he drew last offseason.  Hernandez is projected for an $8.9MM arbitration salary in 2019 and is controlled through 2020, so the Phillies have to determine if they still like Hernandez at that value or feel they can do better.  Trading Hernandez now would be something of a sell-low case, though he might still be more attractive than other second base options for teams needing there.  The Phillies themselves would be in the market for a new second baseman if they dealt Hernandez, as while the position could eventually have Scott Kingery’s name on it, he didn’t do enough in his rookie season to prove himself worthy of an everyday job.  A short-term veteran in the mold of a Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera could be pursued if the Phillies still see Kingery as the long-term answer at second base.

While many of the Phillies’ youngsters disappointed last year, it’s a little ironic that Maikel Franco is reportedly one of the likelier pieces to be traded when he’s the one who actually hit well (.270/.314/.467 in 465 PA, 22 homers, 106 OPS+, 105 wRC+) in 2018, rebounding after a couple of lackluster seasons.  Assuming a Franco deal takes place, Kingery could also be an option at third base, though it seems likely that Phillies have a bigger target in mind for the left field of their infield.

Machado has been linked to Philadelphia for months, as the team is one of the few that can reasonably afford the record contract he is likely to receive in free agency, and the Phillies have such clear needs at both third base and shortstop.  No team received less from its shortstops (-1.8 bWAR) than the Phillies in 2018, and with Kingery an imperfect defensive fit and top prospect J.P. Crawford yet to break out in limited MLB action, signing Machado would immediately turn the shortstop position from a minus to a big plus.  Machado’s defensive prowess as a shortstop improved considerably after going from the Orioles to the Dodgers, so signing with another analytically-inclined team like the Phillies could allay concerns about his glovework.

If Machado prefers to remain at shortstop, the Phillies could retain Franco for third base, give Kingery a longer look, or perhaps acquire another third baseman (e.g. Josh Donaldson, Mike Moustakas).  If Machado is indeed open to moving back to the hot corner, the Phils could address shortstop in the form of another proven star like Segura, or a multi-position player like Marwin Gonzalez would provide even more roster flexibility for Kapler.

Let’s move from Machado to Harper, who is also an easy fit for the Phillies, given their shaky outfield.  Harper would immediately solidify right field, leaving the team to juggle Williams, Altherr (if is tendered a contract), and Roman Quinn in left field — that is, if the Phillies didn’t turn those players into bench depth by acquiring an established everyday left fielder.  Harper will likely command an even larger contract than Machado, whose infamous “Johnny Hustle” comments and the accusations of dirty play directed towards him during the postseason did little to help his free-agent stock.  Harper has also had his share of controversy in his young career, though his injury history is surely the bigger factor for any team considering giving him the largest contract of all time.

Signing more than one of the free agents who rejected a qualifying offer (Harper, Corbin, Kimbrel, Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, A.J. Pollock) would cost the Phillies multiple draft picks and significant chunks of their international signing bonus pool funds.  It isn’t yet known if the Phillies would take such a player development hit for a second consecutive offseason, or if the team would prefer to spend its dollars on players who aren’t tied to compensation.

If Harper signs elsewhere, Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen, Marwin Gonzalez, David Peralta, or Wil Myers stand out as some of the higher-profile corner outfield options that could be signed or acquired in trades.  The Tigers’ Nick Castellanos is an unlikelier choice for a Phillies team looking to upgrade its defense.  The Phils ranked last among all teams in both Defensive Runs Saved (-146) and UZR/150 (-8.0) last season, and while moving Hoskins out of left field will by itself represent an improvement, the Phillies will be prioritizing better defense in 2019.  To that end, Harper’s own defensive ratings were poor in 2018, though agent Scott Boras is aiming to chalk that up to residual effects from Harper’s leg injury late in the 2017 season.

Center field could also be a target area for this reason, as Herrera’s glove dropped off considerably (as per Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, as well as UZR/150 and DRS) and his offense declined for the third straight year.  Kapler hinted that conditioning could have been an issue for Herrera, and the outfielder also saw more time in right field than in center over the latter weeks of the season.

While the Phillies acquired Wilson Ramos for the pennant race, another big splash at catcher is dependent on their long-term view of Jorge Alfaro.  The 25-year-old’s contact skills and pitch-blocking are still a work in progress, making some kind of addition seem likely.  The Phils could sign a veteran backstop to a one-year deal to split time with Alfaro and act as a mentor, but the catching market has a few alternatives if they prefer a higher-profile add.

As much as the Phillies have already looked into Corbin and other top free agent hurlers, the club is likely to limit itself to just one starting pitching addition, since it already has a pretty solid core group of Nola, Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin.  As one might expect given the Phillies’ poor defense, the gap between the rotation’s collective ERA (4.12) and FIP (3.76) was the third-largest of any team in baseball, meaning the starters pitched better than their already-decent numbers indicated.  Still, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pivetta, Velasquez, or Eflin shifted into a long relief or swingman role to make room for another starter, particularly given Kapler’s penchant for going to his bullpen.

Trade possibilities also can’t be ruled out if the Phillies believe they fetch a good price for their younger arms, or if Arrieta ends up being the big salary moved to create more payroll space.  Arrieta posted his lowest swinging-strike and K/9 totals in five years, his overall numbers dropped over the last two months of the season, and he generally continued to look more like the solid veteran workhorse he was in 2017 than his old ace form for the 2015 Cubs.  I’d find it unlikely that Arrieta is dealt just because the Phils could use some stability and experience within what is still a pretty young rotation, and because even the 2018 version of Arrieta going forward still provides value, if maybe not quite at the $45MM remaining cost of his contract.

Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter have also had their names mentioned in trade rumblings less than a year after signing with the Phillies, as both have significant price tag owed to them in 2019.  Keeping both in the fold wouldn’t be a bad result given that Neshek and Hunter both pitched well last season, and the Phillies could decide to mostly stand pat with their bullpen unless they believe an established closer is needed.  Kimbrel, David Robertson (who could favor teams in the Northeast), and Zach Britton could meet this need in free agency, and it’s worth mentioning that Philadelphia had interest in Britton prior to the trade deadline.

After all of these words about the big moves the Phillies could make, let’s also issue some words of caution.  Since Middleton has gone on record about the team’s planned expenditures, I don’t dare suggest that the Phillies won’t be major players this offseason.  However, Middleton also added this note in his remarks to USA Today: “as Andy [MacPhail, Phillies president] likes to tell me, ’John, we are playing baseball after 2019, so, you can’t spend every last dime after this year.’ You got to have something in the tank for future years.”  The Phils will certainly make at least a couple of big and expensive acquisitions, though they don’t need to go overboard to be a better team next season.  A lot of improvement could come from within, if Alfaro and/or Kingery break out, or if Herrera or Hernandez bounce back, or (perhaps chiefly) if the Phillies simply improve their defense from league-worst status.

A big part of the team’s winter business will be centered around Klentak deciding what he exactly has in his current roster pieces, and beginning the process of shipping out players the organiation doesn’t view as contributors to the next winning Phillies team.  As last offseason’s surprising Santana contract indicates, Klentak isn’t afraid of going outside the box to make a move he feels will improve his roster.  The Phillies could be the most fascinating team of any to watch this winter, as their moves are likely to be a league-wide influence on the entire offseason’s direction.

Quick Hits: Schoop, Brewers, Nationals, Stroman

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Jonathan Schoop is a key figure in the Brewers’ offseason plans, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes, as the club’s decision whether or not to tender the second baseman a contract could have a ripple effect throughout the infield.  Schoop is projected to earn $10.1MM via arbitration, though he is coming off a rough season that saw him hit just .233/.266/.416 over 501 plate appearances for the Brewers and Orioles.  Since Schoop did post big numbers for the O’s in 2017, however, Milwaukee could keep Schoop in the fold to see if he can regain that form.  If Schoop was non-tendered, the Brewers could again consider moving Travis Shaw to second base (as they did last season) and then pursue third base help, possibly in the form of a reunion with Mike Moustakas.  I’d also suggest that the Brewers could simply try to acquire another second baseman if Schoop was non-tendered, as there are several interesting options available that might be preferable to taking the defensive hit that would likely come with Shaw getting regular second base duty.  GM David Stearns was quick to dismiss the possibility that Keston Hiura, Milwaukee’s top prospect, could be a possibility for the second base job, as Hiura has yet to even reach the Triple-A level.

Here’s more from around baseball as we wrap up Thanksgiving weekend…

  • The Nationals are thought to be “aiming higher” in their search for starting pitching rather than trying to swing buy-low trades for Marcus Stroman or Sonny Gray, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes.  Janes’ piece in general looks at the pitching options open to the Nats on the trade market, and while GM Mike Rizzo doesn’t often make deals for notable starters, he is willing to pay a significant price when he does covet an arm.  Washington parted with seven total players to acquire Doug Fister in 2013 and Gio Gonzalez in 2011, and since those trades, Rizzo has preferred to rely on free agency or homegrown arms to bolster the rotation.  With so many interesting starters available in trade talks this winter, however, it wouldn’t be surprising if Rizzo went that route instead of making another signing.
  • Speaking of Stroman, the Blue Jays have been asked about the right-hander but have yet to enter into any significant trade talks.  The Athletic’s Andrew Stoeten (subscription required) feels the Jays should be willing to deal Stroman even at something of a sell-low price, since a slow start in 2019 would further diminish any real trade value Stroman possesses.  Since Toronto doesn’t seem to be planning to contend again until 2021, Stoeten feels the Jays should be exploring deals for any player (like Stroman) whose isn’t under team control in 2021 or beyond.

Coaching/Front Office Notes: Dodgers, Orioles, Rays

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The latest on some coaching and front office personnel decisions from around the game…

  • The Dodgers are expected to hire Dino Ebel as their new third base coach, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports.  Ebel would fill the role left behind by newly-hired Rangers manager Chris Woodward, who was also the Dodgers’ infield coach in addition to his duties in the third base box.  No stranger to Los Angeles baseball, Ebel has spent the last 13 years on the Angels’ staff as a third base coach and bench coach, plus he also has an extensive background in the Dodgers organization.  Ebel spent his entire six-year playing career in the Dodgers’ farm system, before going on to spend over a decade as a coach and manager at various levels of the minor league ladder.
  • Orioles scouting director Gary Rajsich’s contract with the team expires at the end of November, and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that there has yet to be any word on whether or not Rajsich will continue with the organization (either in his current role or a reassigned position).  Rajsich has been with the O’s since 2011, though it isn’t clear if his tenure will continue, given how the team has been overhauling its front office and new general manager Mike Elias may prefer to have his own hire in place.
  • Rays minor league catching coordinator Paul Hoover looks like the favorite to become the team’s new field coordinator, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  The job opened up when Rocco Baldelli was hired by the Twins to become their new manager.  A former big leaguer with the Rays, Marlins, and Phillies, Hoover appeared in parts of seven MLB seasons from 2001-10, and he has been working in Tampa’s minor league system since 2012.

Free Agent Rumblings: Jones, Miller, Phillies, Eovaldi

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Adam Jones hopes to keep playing “at least four or five more years,” the veteran outfielder told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) this weekend at his #StayHungry Purple Tailgate charity event in Baltimore.  Jones turned 33 last August and is coming off a season that saw him hit .281/.313/.419 with 15 homers over 613 plate appearances for the Orioles, making for his lowest home run and slugging average totals since 2008, and below-average run production overall (98 wRC+).  Between his age and the offensive dropoff, Jones may face a difficult market as he test free agency for the first time in his 13-year career, though he is realistic about his prospects.  “It’s like [being] the senior that some people want that not everybody wants, as opposed to the sophomore that everybody wants.  I take it back when I was in high school and getting flirted with a little bit,” Jones said.  “But at the same time, I’ve got no stress. The Orioles have been good to me financially over my career. I just know that I have a lot to offer someone else and I have a lot of gas in the tank.”

A reunion with the Orioles doesn’t appear to be in the cards for now, as Jones said that he hadn’t heard from the team since the season ended.  This isn’t necessarily unusual, as Baltimore only just installed Mike Elias as its new general manager in mid-November, and Elias could have interest in re-signing a team legend to act as an on-field mentor through the Orioles’ rebuilding phase.  Still, Jones’ tribute-filled final game of 2018 campaign (and his own comments following the team) certainly seemed to hint that the two sides would be parting ways.

Here’s more on some other free agents around the game….

  • The Phillies are the latest team to express “active interest” in southpaw Andrew Miller, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports (Twitter link).  The previously-reported Cardinals and Mets are also among the teams looking at Miller, though the left-hander isn’t yet close to signing with anyone.  Injuries limited Miller to just 34 innings in 2018, and likely contributed to his overall middling numbers (at least in comparison to his outstanding performance from 2014-17).  Still, with such a track record, it isn’t surprising that Miller is getting lots of attention from a wide range of teams.  Philadelphia is a natural suitor, as the Phils have loads of money to spend this winter and could want more of a veteran late-game presence to complement star rookie Seranthony Dominguez.
  • Bryce Harper’s name has naturally been attached to the Phillies as they seemingly prepare to embark on a spending spree, to the point that “it’s amazing how many people inside this sport almost assume that the Phillies will be the highest bidder in this auction” for Harper, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark writes (subscription required).  Philadelphia has enough financial resources and available future payroll space to pursue anyone in the free agent market…or maybe even in future markets, as Stark speculates on the idea of Mike Trout and Harper both playing in the Phillies outfield in 2021.  Trout still has two years left on his Angels contract, of course, and thus it’s far too early to guess at what might happen down the road, especially since the Angels have every intention of keeping their superstar.  (“I would bet that Arte would spend $10 billion not to have to read the sentence: ’Arte Moreno was the owner who let Mike Trout walk away,’ ” one executive joked to Stark.)  Still, the Phillies’ financial might and their close proximity to Trout’s hometown of Millville, New Jersey make them seem like a logical candidate should Trout ever test the open market.
  • Nathan Eovaldi is one of the most sought-after names on the free agent starting pitching market, yet “there is a team or two toying with trying to sign him as a reliever,” the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes.  Eovaldi’s superb results out of the Red Sox bullpen during their World Series run has surely contributed to this idea, and with two Tommy John surgeries to his name, a case could be made that relief work would be less stressful on Eovaldi’s arm.  This being said, it would be incredibly surprising to see Eovaldi sign on as a reliever after so strongly re-establishing his credentials as a starting pitcher last season.

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