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Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Mariners are coming off a season in which they posted their highest win total (89) since 2003. And yet Seattle still didn’t come close to earning a playoff berth in the American League, which featured five teams with at least 97 victories, and has now gone 17 straight years without making the postseason. No North American professional sports franchise owns a longer playoff drought than the Mariners, who want to “re-imagine” their roster this winter, according to general manager Jerry Dipoto. The trade-minded executive got right to work Wednesday, just over a week after the offseason began, making a headline-grabbing deal with the Rays.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

Free Agents

[Mariners Depth Chart | Mariners Payroll Information]

The Mariners put up a quality record in 2018, but they did so while allowing 34 more runs than they scored – a sign the team may not have been as close to contention as it appeared. The six AL teams that finished ahead of Seattle – including Houston and Oakland, both of which are in the Mariners’ division – posted run differentials ranging from plus-70 to plus-263, perhaps leading Dipoto to say this week that the clubs ahead of his “are not ahead of us by a little.” As a result, the Mariners entered the offseason weighing some significant roster changes. However, indications are that the M’s will neither fully rebuild nor go all in toward breaking their playoff drought, which would require a noteworthy increase over their franchise-record Opening Day payroll from last season ($157.9MM-plus).

Factoring in projected arbitration salaries, Seattle already has upward of $151.5MM going toward next year’s roster, Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates. The team may be primed to shave some of that cash prior to next season, as it did when it declined outfielder Denard Span’s option for 2019 and made its deal with the Rays. The swap included five players but featured three experienced major leaguers, with catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia going to Tampa Bay and center fielder Mallex Smith heading to Seattle.

In landing Smith, the Mariners took care of one need but created another, leaving catcher as a position they must address. Compared to the typical offensive player, Zunino registered a less-than-stellar offensive season in 2018, but his wRC+ (84) was exactly average for his position, and he continued to provide plus defense. With that in mind, it’ll be tough for the M’s to find a similarly priced, similarly effective replacement for Zunino in free agency or via trade.

Considering how weak their farm system is, the Mariners won’t be able to swing a deal for Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, who’s easily the premier trade candidate at the position. But Greg Johns of MLB.com noted Friday that Dipoto could look to acquire a more attainable major league backstop such as Jorge Alfaro, Yan Gomes, Roberto Perez, Kevin Plawecki, James McCann or Blake Swihart. With the exception of McCann, who’s only arbitration eligible for two more years, all of those players are controllable for the foreseeable future. Any of those non-McCann catchers could be better fits for the Mariners than Realmuto when taking the team’s timeline into account, though needless to say, Realmuto’s vastly superior to each of them.

Looking at the free-agent market, Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos are miles better than their competition, and both should command expensive deals of at least three years. If the Mariners are going to make a splash in free agency, it might be for one of them (though, because Grandal’s a qualifying offer recipient, signing him would also cost a draft pick). Otherwise, Kurt Suzuki, Robinson Chirinos, Martin Maldonado, Jonathan Lucroy, Devin Mesoraco, Matt Wieters and Brian McCann represent free-agent starting options who are candidates to sign as stopgap starters.

The Zunino-less Mariners clearly have a gaping hole behind the plate, but they did save money and gain at least one potential long-term piece when they said goodbye to him. Zunino’s projected to earn $4.3MM via arbitration in 2019, his second-last year of control, while Smith still has another pre-arb season left and won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2022. For Seattle, the hope is that the breakout the fleet-of-foot Smith experienced in 2018 will carry over. If so, he and star right fielder Mitch Haniger will make for an enviable tandem for the foreseeable future. Left field looks less settled as of now, but the lefty-swinging Ben Gamel did notch adequate production in an 843-plate appearance run from 2017-18. Considering Gamel’s output thus far, Seattle may roll with him as a cheap starter next year, though it could at least a seek a right-handed hitter to platoon with him now that Heredia’s gone.

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Minor MLB Transactions: 11/11/18

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Sunday’s minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Rockies have agreed to a minor league contract with catcher Brett Nicholas, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The 30-year-old Nicholas spent all of last season at the Triple-A level with the Padres, who acquired him from the Rangers in April, and slashed .291/.353/.485 with 16 home runs in 456 plate appearances. Prior to last year, Nicholas had been with Texas his entire pro career, which began when the organization selected him in the sixth round of the 2010 draft. He ultimately amassed 110 major league PAs as a member of the Rangers (45 in 2016, 65 in ’17), with whom he hit a respectable .252/.300/.456.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Harper, Manny, New York, Kimbrel, M’s, Zunino

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This week in baseball blogs…

  • The 3rd Man In predicts landing spots for five top free agents.
  • StatsSwipe projects the average annual value of five free-agent starting pitchers.
  • Call to the Pen (links: 1, 2, 3) ranks the game’s 30 best free agents, opines that the Yankees don’t need Manny Machado, and runs down the Phillies’ need areas.
  • Off The Bench (links: 1, 2) picks one free agent for each contender.
  • PhilliesNation is skeptical of Bryce Harper signing a deal in excess of 10 years
  • MLB & Fantasy Baseball Analyzed offers thoughts on Harper and his fellow qualifying offer recipients.
  • Pinstriped Prospects (links: 1, 2) weighs the pros and cons of a Yankees-Harper and Yankees-Machado union.
  • Rising Apple doesn’t want the Mets to sign Craig Kimbrel.
  • Know Hitter is leery of the Mariners’ decision to trade Mike Zunino.
  • M-SABR shares a study on the usage and effectiveness of the changeup from 2015-18.
  • The K Zone hands out MLB awards for 2018.
  • Chin Music Baseball highlights the best player at each position in 2018.
  • The Giants Cove applauds San Francisco for hiring Farhan Zaidi as its president of baseball operations.
  • Reviewing The Brew tries to construct a perfect offseason plan for the Brewers.
  • The Runner Sports (links: 1, 2, 3) asks how aggressively the Yankees should pursue a trade for Corey Kluber, reacts to Joe Mauer’s retirement, and responds to the news that Collin McHugh could return to the Astros’ rotation.
  • Tomahawk Take lists five players the Braves should consider pursuing on the trade market.
  • East Village Times sees free agent Josh Harrison as a sensible target for the Padres.
  • Mets Daddy argues that Peter Alonso should start next season in the minors.
  • Angels Avenue analyzes a few Halos relievers who had unexpectedly great seasons and could help the team in 2019.
  • Rox Pile focuses on five Jeff Bridich quotes from a recent conference call.
  • The Point of Pittsburgh looks at the recently released Steamer projections and how the Pirates can get into the playoffs.
  • Motor City Bengals examines five notable, Tigers-related stats from the Steamer projections.
  • Mets Critic wonders if the club will truly be a big spender this offseason.
  • Foul Territory (podcast) discusses hot stove season.
  • Everything Bluebirds believes the Blue Jays can learn from their ill-fated Jaime Garcia signing.
  • A’s Farm runs downs the organization’s minor league coaching staff for 2019.

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

AL Notes: Twins, McCullers, Rays, Zunino, Orioles

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Center fielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano were among the Twins’ best performers during their 2017 playoff season, but both players took massive steps backward during the team’s disappointing 2018 campaign. Now, the down seasons the pair endured are affecting the Twins’ offseason plans, Dan Hayes of The Athletic explains (subscription required). Had those two remained strong contributors last season, Minnesota would’ve been more willing to go “full speed ahead” this winter in an attempt to catch the AL Central rival Indians, Hayes writes. Instead, the Twins’ primary focus right now is to help those two bounce back in 2019. If Buxton and Sano do rebound, Twins ownership would give the team’s front office “the green light to take more of an aggressive step forward with this unit of players,” general manager Thad Levine said, adding he and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey “would feel much more emboldened to take that step forward.”

Here’s more from the American League:

  • Even though the Astros’ Lance McCullers Jr. pitched in September and October, the right-hander tells Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription required) that he was aware by then that he needed Tommy John surgery. McCullers revealed that he received the news when he met with surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Aug. 30, but the 25-year-old – with the blessing of ElAttrache and the Astros – put the procedure on hold until the offseason. While pitching through a partially torn UCL was “painful,” McCullers wasn’t going to make the injury worse by doing it, and he knew he’d miss 2019 no matter what. McCullers ended up going under the knife this past Tuesday, and is aiming for a spring 2020 return. Kaplan’s full piece is worth checking out for more from McCullers.
  • Catcher Mike Zunino, whom the Rays acquired from the Mariners on Thursday, looks like a solid addition from an on-field standpoint. The Rays also place a great deal of value on Zunino as a person, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, noting he should help fill the veteran leadership void left by free agents Sergio Romo and Carlos Gomez. Indeed, GM Erik Neander said that “[Zunino’s] somebody that we see that could take a leadership role with our group.’’ In terms of what Zunino provides as a defender, Neander offered a rave review, pointing to “how he navigates a staff, how he manages people, what kind of teammate he is, the care factor, the confidence that he is putting down the right fingers.”
  • Unsurprisingly, the Orioles won’t be big players in free agency, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. However, Kubatko relays that they will prioritize adding infielders, likely on short-term deals. Assuming the rebuilding Orioles don’t contend in 2019, they could then try to trade those additions over the summer, Kubatko notes. Of the infield options currently on Baltimore’s 40-man roster (Chris Davis, Tim Beckham, Jonathan Villar, Renato Nunez, Breyvic Valera, Steve Wilkerson and Engelb Vielma), only Villar and Nunez offered passable major league production last season.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Brodie Van Wagenen

The Mets suffered through their second straight disastrous season in 2018, leading to major changes atop their baseball department. General manager Sandy Alderson stepped away in June to battle a recurrence of cancer, which proved to be the end of a tenure that was occasionally fruitful but recently disappointing.

Seeking a replacement for Alderson, the Mets mostly interviewed candidates who were already executives at the major league level. In the end, though, they made the unexpected decision to name longtime player agent Brodie Van Wagenen as their GM.

Mets owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon were already plenty familiar with Van Wagenen, who counted big-name Mets Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes among his clients when he was with CAA Sports. Now that Van Wagenen is on the Mets’ side, Fred Wilpon believes his “high character, blend of analytics, scouting and development ideas” will help the franchise escape the doldrums.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salary via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[New York Mets depth chart | New York Mets payroll outlook]

The Mets started 2018 a red-hot 11-1, but they began an epic nosedive soon after and sat 16 games under .500 at the All-Star break. By then, New York’s chances of contending were out the window, and the question was whether it was going to retain the deGrom/Syndergaard duo past the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. That same month, the outspoken Van Wagenen proclaimed the Mets should trade deGrom if they weren’t going to extend him. Ultimately, the Mets didn’t reach an extension with deGrom or deal him or Syndergaard. Depending on the Mets’ GM hire, both deGrom and Syndergaard could have been trade candidates this offseason. But with Van Wagenen now calling the shots, the team’s not primed to kickstart a rebuild by parting with either of its superstar hurlers. Rather, according to Van Wagenen, the Mets “will win now,” and they “expect to be in on every free agent.”

In light of Van Wagenen’s free-agent declaration, visions of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado may have been dancing in the heads of the most optimistic of Mets fans. However, even though the Mets play in the majors’ biggest market and have zero dollars on their books past 2020, it’s hard to imagine them reeling in either. For one, there’s no word on how much the Mets are willing to increase their payroll over last year’s $150MM-plus Opening Day sum. Landing Harper or Machado would require a sizable jump over that figure, as the Mets’ payroll is already nearing $135MM heading into 2019. Secondly, the Mets have never even doled out a $150MM guarantee, yet both Harper and Machado could push or exceed $400MM on their next deals.

While Harper and Machado seem likely to be out of New York’s price range, the club could still come away from free agency having made significant improvements. There are more realistic targets out there, including for the Mets’ bullpen, which is a focal point for the team this offseason. Per Van Wagenen, the Mets are seeking “multiple” relievers to upgrade over last year’s bullpen – a unit that was among the majors’ worst. As things stand, right-handers Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Drew Smith are the only current Mets relievers who were remotely effective over a fair amount innings in 2018 (lefty Daniel Zamora also impressed, but he did so over a mere nine frames). There’s a lot of work ahead as a result, though there are also several proven relievers available on the open market.

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Astros Interested In James Paxton

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The Mariners are set to retool this offseason, leaving few to no untouchables on their roster. Left-hander James Paxton has emerged as arguably their highest-profile trade candidate early this offseason, and he’s drawing interest from an array of teams, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Astros are part of that group, Rosenthal reports.

As World Series contenders who are seeking starters, the Astros are a logical match for Paxton. Although the club had an elite rotation in 2018, it could lose both Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, and it just found out Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Those factors leave aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole as the Astros’ only rotation locks at the moment, though it seems they’ll return veteran Collin McHugh to a starting role after he thrived as a reliever last season. But those three are only signed through next season, whereas Paxton’s controllable through 2020.

Even if the Astros do move McHugh back to their rotation next season, they’ll still be short on established starters. Swingman Brad Peacock and a series of youngsters – including Forrest Whitley (perhaps the game’s best pitching prospect) and Josh James – are among their other rotation possibilities.

Notably, Seattle and Houston are in the same division, which in theory could make a trade unlikely. However, if the Mariners don’t see themselves as near-term contenders in the AL West, their mindset should be to take the best possible offer. The Astros may be in position to make the most generous proposal for the 30-year-old Paxton, given that they own one of the majors’ best farm systems. Houston will face plenty of competition, though, including from the AL rival Yankees.

While the flamethrowing Paxton comes with a troubling injury history and has never approached the 200-inning mark in a season, he’s still among the game’s top starters on a per-inning basis. Paxton’s affordable control only adds to his value, as he’s projected to earn a reasonable $9MM in 2019.

Looking For A Match In A James Paxton Trade

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Earlier this week, the Mariners and Rays made the offseason’s first major trade, a five-player swap in which catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Mallex Smith changed teams. That may prove to be the first of multiple noteworthy deals Mariners trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto orchestrates this winter, especially considering his intention to “re-imagine” his team’s roster. The majority of that roster is available for trade, Jon Heyman of Fancred reported prior to the Zunino deal, though he added that outfielder Mitch Haniger, closer Edwin Diaz and left-handed Marco Gonzales appear safe.

The most interesting name missing from Heyman’s list is Gonzalez’s fellow southpaw starter James Paxton, who’s Seattle’s closest thing to an ace. With the 30-year-old Paxton down to his final two seasons of team control, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times has heard that the Mariners will trade him this winter.

While Paxton does have a checkered injury history and has only exceeded 160 innings in a year once (last season, when he tallied 160 1/3), the fireballer is still one of the majors’ premier lefties. Paxton has averaged just 24 starts and 139 innings a season since 2016, his breakout campaign, but the Big Maple nonetheless racked up 11.9 fWAR during that three-year span. In that regard, only 12 starters bettered Paxton, who’s sandwiched between Noah Syndergaard and Luis Severino. And since 2017, Paxton ranks fourth among starters in K/9 (11.06), fifth in FIP (2.95), 11th in K/BB ratio (4.61) and tied for 21st in ERA (3.40).

Paxton’s projected to earn $9MM in 2019, a far lighter commitment than the best free-agent starters will rake in this winter, which only adds to his appeal. Acquiring Paxton would still sting a team to a degree, of course, as that club would presumably need to part with a big-time haul to land him. In shipping Paxton out, perhaps Seattle would significantly boost a farm system which has long languished at the bottom of the majors.

Here’s a look at potential suitors for Paxton, going from best to worst record in 2018:

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Astros fell just shy of their second straight World Series berth in 2018. Now, with the offseason underway, they’re facing multiple key departures in free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Astros Depth Chart | Astros Payroll Information]

Elite starting pitching was a hallmark of the Astros from 2017-18, but at the outset of the offseason, their rotation has lost quite a bit of luster. The terrific tandem of Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton may exit in free agency, while Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this month. Fortunately for Houston, it still boasts a tremendous one-two punch in ace right-handers Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. The team’s starting mix is murkier thereafter, though president and general manager Jeff Luhnow suggested when McCullers went under the knife that the Astros would turn back to Collin McHugh as a starter after he worked exclusively out of their bullpen in 2018.

The 31-year-old McHugh was quietly one of the majors’ most effective relievers last season, so deploying him as a starter would obviously weaken Houston’s bullpen. At the same time, it would give the Astros another viable starter, something McHugh served as from 2014-17. He relieved last season because Houston had incredible starting depth, which isn’t quite the case right now. That’s not to say the cupboard is empty after McHugh, though, as the Astros still possess arguably the game’s No. 1 pitching prospect – towering righty Forrest Whitley, 21 – not to mention fellow top-100 prospect Josh James and swingman Brad Peacock. But Whitley seems likely to open 2019 at Triple-A, a level he hasn’t yet reached, and Peacock could stay in a relief role after totaling just one start in 61 appearances last season. James may have the most realistic chance of the three to begin 2019 in the Astros’ rotation, and the 25-year-old flamethrower did stand out late last season in the majors – albeit over just 23 1/3 innings divided between the rotation and bullpen.

Beyond Whitley, James and Peacock, there are a slew of starting options in the minors who either carry limited track records in the majors or no experience at the game’s highest level, as Jake Kaplan of The Athletic recently detailed (subscription required). With that in mind, it seems clear that restocking their rotation will be a priority for the Astros this winter.

There hasn’t been any word on whether the Astros will make an earnest attempt to re-sign Keuchel, a Scott Boras client who’s on a collision course with a substantial payday. On the other hand, Morton has made it known he’d welcome a return to Houston in 2019. Morton’s on the market unfettered after the Astros surprisingly decided against issuing him a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason. It’s fair to surmise Morton’s age (35 next week) and lengthy injury history played a role in that call, and those factors will also tamp down his earning power on the open market. Regardless, Morton was stellar as an Astro over the past two years – including during a 167-inning, 3.13 ERA showing in 2018 – and would be difficult to replace.

With the futures of Keuchel and Morton in question, the Astros figure to be in on some of the top available starting pitchers in the coming weeks – especially considering Verlander, Cole and McHugh are each signed for just one more season. Luhnow swung blockbuster trades in the past to acquire Verlander and Cole, and he may again go that route to bolster his rotation. It helps that the Astros happen to have one of the game’s most impressive farm systems, which could give them a legitimate chance to win a bidding war for the Indians’ Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco or Trevor Bauer (though the latter has had it out with Houston in the past), three front-line starters who each come with two or more years of control. The Indians will at least consider offers on that trio, while another high-caliber arm – James Paxton of the Mariners – may also find himself on the move.

Whether the Mariners would send Paxton to Houston, one of their AL West rivals, is anyone’s guess. The same concerns wouldn’t exist with Zack Greinke, whom the Diamondbacks could part with in a payroll-cutting measure. Even though he’s 35, Greinke remains an outstanding starter. However, he’s owed another $95.5MM through 2021, which not only limits his trade value but could scare off potential suitors (including Houston, though the club could likely afford to take on his contract). More reasonably priced targets may include hard-throwing lefty Robbie Ray, one of Greinke’s Arizona teammates, as well as the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman, the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy and the Yankees’ Sonny Gray. Aside from Gray, who’s slated to become a free agent in a year, all of those hurlers come with at least two controllable seasons. And while Stroman, Bundy and Gray struggled in 2018, it’s worth noting each were above average in terms of spin rate, in which the Astros are big believers.

Houston would likely be buying at least somewhat low on Stroman, Bundy or Gray, given the down years they had. Free agent Garrett Richards, another spin rate darling, also stands out as an intriguing buy-low candidate. Having undergone Tommy John surgery last July, Richards probably wouldn’t contribute in 2019. Although, if he inks a two-year deal, he’d be able to help Houston come 2020, when some or all of Verlander, Cole and McHugh could be off the team.

As far as healthy free-agent starters go, perhaps the Astros will explore the top of the market, where Patrick Corbin, Keuchel and Nathan Eovaldi are the headliners. The next tier includes J.A. Happ, Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi (if his team posts him), Morton and Hyun-Jin Ryu. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Astros come away with any of those starters, barring a trade(s).

A trade may be the Astros’ preferred way to upgrade behind the plate, which seems inevitable. With Brian McCann, Martin Maldonado and DH/onetime catcher Evan Gattis now unsigned, Houston’s down to Max Stassi and recent waiver claim Chris Herrmann as its backstops. Stassi was effective in 2018, especially as a defender, but his offensive production cratered after May. That could help point the Astros back to the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, the sport’s premier catcher in 2018. The Astros were in on Realmuto last winter, when they reportedly considered offering coveted young outfielder Kyle Tucker for him, but Miami ultimately retained its franchise player. However, now that Realmuto’s a year closer to free agency and still refuses to sign an extension with the Marlins, a trade’s probably coming sometime soon.

Houston’s certainly a logical fit for Realmuto, though it’ll have some alternatives in free agency if it’s unable to swing a deal with Miami. The leading member of the free-agent group, Yasmani Grandal, has already landed on the Astros’ radar. The 30-year-old Grandal’s the only catcher in the game who was a better pitch framer than Stassi in 2018, and he also brings a track record of quality hitting to the table.

While catcher looks like the Astros’ focus with respect to their position player cast, there are other concerns, including at DH. As excellent as the Astros were from 2017-18, their primary DHs – Carlos Beltran two years ago, Gattis last season – underwhelmed during that span. Sure, Gattis smacked 25 home runs in 2018, but he was a mediocre hitter overall (101 OPS+, 99 wRC+). Meanwhile, even though he was playing his age-38 season, the Mariners’ Nelson Cruz continued to serve as an offensive force. Cruz is now one of the foremost hitters available in free agency, and has drawn the Astros’ interest since the market opened.

Speculatively, the Astros may have other sluggers on their radar, including Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez, Rays first baseman C.J. Cron and Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak. It’s true that Houston already has a starting first baseman in Yuli Gurriel, but he was mediocre in 2018 and may be better served as a utility player. Taking on such a role would enable Gurriel to at least partially replace free-agent Swiss Army knife Marwin Gonzalez, who appears to be on his way to landing a raise outside of Houston.

Gonzalez saw more left field action in 2018 than any other Astro, which could put them in the market for help there if the 21-year-old Tucker’s not ready to assume the reins. If next season began today, Houston would possibly be looking at a Tony Kemp/Jake Marisnick platoon in left. Needless to say, that’s not the most confidence-inspiring duo. If the Astros really want to swing for the fences (no pun intended), they could go after free agent Bryce Harper, whom they nearly acquired from Washington at last summer’s non-waiver trade deadline. On paper, Harper’s projected annual salary ($30MM-plus) would push the Astros’ 2019 payroll to around $165MM – roughly a $5MM boost over last year’s franchise-record Opening Day outlay, and that’s without any improvements at other positions. However, the Astros only have $50MM-plus tied up in their 2020 roster and just $29MM locked in from 2020-24. A Harper pursuit may not be wholly out of the question, then, though the Astros could deem it infeasible with no proven starting pitchers under control past next season and three core players (Bregman, Correa and Springer) possibly due for massive extensions in the coming years.

Should a Harper-Astros union prove to be a flight of fancy, the club could still better its outfield mix in free agency with someone like center fielder A.J. Pollock, who’d enable Springer to move back to a corner on a full-time basis, or a high-profile corner bat such as Michael Brantley or Andrew McCutchen. For the most part, corner outfield trade possibilities don’t look as enticing.

As is the case with every team, the Astros figure to dedicate at least some offseason attention to their bullpen. The unit may lose McHugh to the rotation and lefty Tony Sipp to free agency, after all. Still, with Peacock, Ryan Pressly, Roberto Osuna, Hector Rondon, Will Harris, Chris Devenski and Joe Smith slated to return, the Astros’ relief corps is in enviable shape. If Houston’s bullpen needs anything, it’s a southpaw to complement its septet of accomplished righties. It’s unclear whether the Astros are interested in re-signing Sipp, who bounced back in 2018 after two dreadful seasons. In the event Sipp’s on his way out, Houston may consider fellow free agents Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, Justin Wilson, Oliver Perez and Jerry Blevins to replace him. It’s worth noting the Astros already have connections to four of those players. They unsuccessfully chased Britton and Wilson on the trade market in recent years, traded for Perez in 2015 (it didn’t go well), and made a generous offer to Miller during his previous trip to free agency in 2014.

It’s evident the Astros have an array of plausible paths they could take this winter in order to up their chances of winning a third straight AL West title in 2019 and recapturing World Series glory. Luhnow believes the Astros “have a championship-caliber roster already in place,” but don’t expect him to rest on his laurels in the coming months. With Keuchel, Morton and Gonzalez potentially leaving Houston, inactivity isn’t an option.

West Notes: Rox, Realmuto, Padres, Rangers, Mariners

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Despite the struggles of the Rockies’ catchers in 2018, it doesn’t appear they’ll be among the most ardent suitors for Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, Thomas Harding of MLB.com hears. It’s unclear, though, whether Colorado will make a less splashy attempt to upgrade over its current trio of Chris Iannetta, Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy, a woeful offensive group in 2018. Realmuto was the game’s premier catcher last season, on the other hand, but his refusal to sign an extension with the Marlins makes him a prime trade candidate. With two years of arbitration control remaining, Realmuto would bring back an impressive haul, but it doesn’t look as if it’ll come from Colorado.

  • The Padres are rife with major league-caliber outfielders, meaning they’re going to “have to make some decisions and calls on” that area of their roster this offseason, general manager A.J. Preller said this week (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Out of the Padres’ current group of outfielders, Cassavell classifies Wil Myers, Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes as trade candidates, adding that one of the latter two is likeliest to end up on the move. As right-handed sluggers with defensive limitations, Renfroe and Reyes offer similar skill sets, observes Cassavell, who notes that dealing one of the two would enable San Diego to move Myers from third base back to the outfield. The 27-year-old Myers, who owns the Padres’ second-richest contract (he’s guaranteed $64MM through 2023), saw his first real action at third base in 2018. Advanced metrics assigned Myers mixed reviews over a fairly small sample of appearances (36), as he accounted for one DRS and minus-5.4 UZR.
  • The Rangers elected to decline catcher Robinson Chirinos’ option for 2019 because of both the salary they’d have owed him ($4.5MM) and his defensive woes, according to Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram. Chirinos was one of the majors’ worst defensive catchers in 2018, but it was still a surprise that Texas let him become a free agent. After all, the 34-year-old did offer solid offensive production for the fifth straight season, hitting .222/.338/.419 (103 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 426 plate appearances, and exercising his option hardly would’ve broken the bank. Further, the Rangers don’t seem to have a full-time replacement on hand, as they’re not of the belief either Jose Trevino or Isiah Kiner-Falefa is ready for No. 1 duties, per Wilson. Texas is in the market for a primary backstop as a result, and though there are several established veterans on the open market, Wilson suggests Chirinos’ successor could arrive via trade.
  • Like their AL West rival in Arlington, the Mariners are seeking a starting catcher, having traded Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay on Thursday. With Zunino gone and the Mariners down to unproven 29-year-old David Freitas as their top option, Greg Johns of MLB.com runs down potential catcher acquisitions for the club. Considering the state of Seattle’s roster, GM Jerry Dipoto may attempt to trade for an experienced backstop who’s controllable for the next three to five years, writes Johns, who lists some potential targets in his piece.

Trade Deadline Retrospective: Harper, Astros, Garcia, Nats, Puig

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Baseball fans everywhere were stripped of high-level trade deadline intrigue last season, as Ken Rosenthal details in a stunning report for The Athletic, when a trade that would have sent Bryce Harper to the Astros in exchange for a trio of prospects was nixed by Washington’s ownership group.  The trade, said to have been agreed upon a day before the July 31 deadline, would have sent 2017 first-rounder J.B. Bukauskas to the Nats, as well as two other prospects, one of which was reportedly catcher Garrett Stubbs.  Though Bukauskas faces questions about a third pitch, which could relegate him to eventual relief duty, and Stubbs has cooled after a blistering 2016 performance for Double-A Corpus Christi, the package was surely superior in value to the compensatory pick the Nationals will receive should Harper depart in free agency, which, as Rosenthal notes, will come after the fourth round in next year’s draft, by virtue of the club exceeding the luxury tax total in 2018.  Houston, which received middling corner-outfield production from Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez last season, would certainly have benefitted from Harper’s presence in a lineup diminished by injuries to Carlos Correa and a substandard season from George Springer, though the departing asset cost would’ve assuredly been hefty for only two months of the 25-year-old superstar.

  • Though no official reason was offered for the disapproval, Rosenthal speculates the Nationals owners may have been worried about damaging their relationship with Harper in the offseason to come. The club, after all, did offer Harper a reported $300MM over ten years on the last day of the 2018 season, and figures to further its aggression in efforts to sign the generational talent. During the August waiver period, the club also shot down a Dodger effort to acquire Harper, according to a report from the Los Angeles Times. It appears this offer, which reportedly included outfielder Yasiel Puig at its center, was nixed at the front office level, though it’s certainly plausible that previous ownership mandates were a significant factor in the team’s eventual refusal to depart with the star. Puig, certainly, would have been an intriguing return for just over a month’s use of Harper – the 27-year-old has had his share of on-field dustups, to be sure, but has remained a force at the plate: in an odd reverse split, the polarizing Cuban has put up a 142 wRC+ against right-handed pitching the last two seasons, good for 12th among qualifiers in baseball during that span, and is under team control through the 2019 season.
  • After being stonewalled in their Harper pursuit, sources told Rosenthal that the Astros pivoted their attention (to, obviously, no avail) in the final hours to White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia, dangling right-handed pitching prospect Francis Martes, whose damaged right elbow was apparently of no concern to the Southsiders.  Garcia, who’s been around replacement-level in five of his six major league seasons thus far, seemed an odd target for an Astro club not much in need of a right-handed boost – the 27-year-old, after all, posted a minuscule 1.4% BB rate in the season’s first half, and again sunk to a level of below-league-average production by the time his season ended in knee surgery in mid-September.

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