It was just a few years ago that Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer looked like one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball. Fulmer burst on the scene in 2016 – one year after the Tigers acquired him from the Mets in the teams’ Yoenis Cespedes trade – parlaying a 95 mph fastball into 159 innings of 3.06 ERA ball en route to American League Rookie of the Year honors. Unfortunately, though, Fulmer’s career has gone in the wrong direction since then.
While Fulmer did turn in another fine season in 2017, an All-Star campaign, injuries began to cut him down then. Dating back to that season, Fulmer has undergone three surgeries – one for ulnar nerve transposition, another on his knee and most recently a Tommy John procedure. TJS wiped out all of 2019 for Fulmer, which came after he slumped to an unspectacular 4.69 ERA across 132 1/3 innings during the previous year.
Considering that Fulmer’s still just 27 years old and under team control through 2022, it would be unwise to throw dirt on his career just yet. Fulmer may well turn back into a significant asset for the Tigers when he’s ready to return (which should be sometime this season, if there is one), though it’s also worth wondering if the club and general manager Al Avila should have sold high on him when they had the chance. Fulmer was involved in a bevy of trade rumors during his healthier days, but the Tigers were unwilling to move him for anything other than a massive return when his value was at its zenith. They’ve since gone into a full rebuild and may not even return to contention during Fulmer’s remaining years of control.
In fairness to the Tigers, you can’t necessarily blame them for their reluctance to part with Fulmer. After all, it’s not every day you find a young, hard-throwing starter with front-line potential. That said, plenty of teams tried to pry him out of Detroit, which could have benefited from moving him.
Going back in the MLBTR archives since 2017, the Braves, Astros, Athletics, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Padres, Cubs and Rangers are among teams that have at least kicked the tires on Fulmer. The juiciest Fulmer-related rumor came out last summer and went back to 2017, when Houston and Chicago reportedly offered Detroit one now-superstar apiece for the hurler.
The Cubs were apparently willing to give up Javier Baez, while the Astros would have surrendered Alex Bregman for Fulmer and reliever Justin Wilson. The Tigers turned down those offers. At that point, Baez was a solid player – not the true standout middle infielder he has morphed into over the past couple years. Bregman, though, was just two years removed from going No. 2 in the draft and has been among the most valuable third basemen in the game over the past few seasons. As for Wilson (now a Met), the Tigers did end up trading him to the Cubs that year for third baseman Jeimer Candelario and shortstop Isaac Paredes. Candelario was a quality prospect at the time, but he hasn’t made a great impact in the majors yet, while Paredes is still promising. Bregman helped the Astros to a World Series title (albeit one that many regard as tainted) in 2017, however, and Baez has been irreplaceable to the Cubs.
If either the Astros or the Cubs had successfully pulled off a Fulmer trade, it’s interesting to ponder how they’d look nowadays. Would the Astros have ended up acquiring ace Justin Verlander, Fulmer’s ex-teammate, from the Tigers in August 2017? If not, would they have won the World Series that year or the AL pennant without his Cy Young contributions last season? Would the Cubs have sent outfielder Eloy Jimenez and righty Dylan Cease to the crosstown-rival White Sox for starter Jose Quintana in 2017? Those are just some of the intriguing scenarios to consider in the case of a Fulmer non-trade.
If we’re to believe the Astros/Cubs rumors, it seems fair to say the Tigers’ refusal to trade Fulmer three years ago has had an enormous effect on them and the league as a whole. While it’s not the Tigers’ fault that injuries have derailed Fulmer of late, they might be a lot closer to escaping their rebuild had they traded him to Houston, Chicago or one of the several other teams that pursued him. Now, they’re left to hope that he’ll begin a career renaissance when he takes the mound again.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
that wilson trade is completely wrong. they didnt get hicks or Jimenez in that deal
That’s who was called up, not who they got. Hahahaha. They got Isaac Paredes and Jeimer Candelario and also sent Alex Avila.
Not even in the same paragraph.
Hindsight is always 20/20. For every trade that “should” have happened, there is an opposite trade that “shouldn’t” have happened. The main reason this instance looks so egregious is the after-the-fact rumors that Baez and Bregman were offered. Who knows if either of those guys even reach their current performance levels in Detroit? So many what ifs.
Bregman was the #2 overall pick and was just dominating the minor leagues at the time!
So you believe the Astros were dumb enough to offer an dominating prospect who plays every day for a pitcher who was good, but likely to regress at least a little, if not significantly? Even the if he didn’t get hurt, Fulmer was never projected to be a future ace. He outperformed expectations his rookie year which is why his market was weak over the winter.
The Braves were always rumored to be real high on Fulmer, even when the team wasnt ready to compete. I hope im wrong but i just dont see him being a huge difference maker going forward
Al Avila’s magnum opus.
The worst GM in MLB…
C’mon now, Al’s vision to create a winning franchise may happen in Erie, PA
No question
Recycled Anthony Fenech crap, someone known to have an axe to grind against the Tigers.. Luhnow specifically denied offering Bregman for Fulmer. So the validity of these ‘offers’ is suspect. I get it, there is not much to write about right now. But lets not recycle old unsubstantiated rumors.
Yeah I’m surprised Fenech still has a job given he isn’t well liked at all by the Tigers. I can remember his public argument with JV
Fenech’s not the one who came away looking petty in that argument.
Stupid Tigers.
Stupid Avila
Well….the Tigers did extend Avila for reasons unknown so the stupidity does go beyond Avila.
For sake of argument…
If the Tigers had been offered Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran, Michael Feliz and Jason Martin for Fulmer…
Should they have taken it?
I think getting Quintana was the right move for the Cubs since they got to keep Javy B, but Eloy is under team control for a while. Quintana was the right move, but it’s fun to think about.
That Fulmer for Bregman deal only pays off if the Astros include a CF camera and a trash can.
Also, there’s a tweet referenced by MLBTR in which the Cubs rejected any offer that included shipping out Baez.
exactly. dont buy that or Bregman to be honest
The error wasn’t in the return; it was in the philosophy. They wen 13-41 down the stretch in 2017, AND traded away Verlander. Fulmer was the only SP left with an ERA of less than 5.27.
That’s the point where you have to admit you have no shot, and begin transitioning/tanking. From my fan perspective, there is no difference between 67 wins or 57 wins-you still stink.
Get your rumor correct. The fake trade offer was for the 2016 off season when Fulmer was healthy. He was already struggling with an injury by the July 2017 trade deadline so nobody was going to pay top dollar. Trading JV was the admission that they couldn’t compete & had to rebuild. He was the first key guy not on an expiring contract that they traded.
Get your rumor correct.
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Did I mention even one thing about rumored trades? Of course not. I have no idea what the rumored trades were. In fact, I actually said:
“The error wasn’t in the return…”
The error was in the philosophy that they should hold onto him instead of tanking. It’s one thing to hold onto guys like Boyd & Norris. They hadn’t reached peak value. Fulmer had, and he should’ve been traded.
Just like Boyd should’ve been traded last year. Once a guy maxes his value, if you aren’t contending, you trade him.
How do you ever contend if you trade away your good players for suspects/prospects? If you aren’t contending, you add to your team. Trading young cheap controllable players away is what … Nobody but the White Sox have done. As of today, they are yet to reach .500. Not much evidence that your way works.
1. What was the end result of keeping Fulmer while his value was the highest? Did it get the Tigers into the playoffs? Should have been traded to find some players that would help them in their window, which they implicitly acknowledged by trading JV, was not then.
2. “If you aren’t contending, you add to your team.” Again, refer to windows of contention. See: Mets trade of R.A. Dickey off his Cy Young year for d’Arnaud, Syndergaard, and Wuilmer Beccera. You trade useless talent now for potentially meaningful talent in an anticipated window of contention.
3. Stop ignoring evidence because it runs counter to your potision. Who did the Dodgers trade to land Betts? Tell me they did not “trade young cheap controllable players.”
What an ignorant comment all around. This is why you will never be a GM of anything 🙂
The Dodgers are morons that haven’t won a damn thing. The are going to squander Kershaw’s career with an overpriced and failing team.
No one was offering a top prospect for Fulmer so the Tigers didn’t give him away.
You’d make the most foolish GM ever.
Do you realize that Kershaw’s postseason struggles have been a big factor in the Dodgers choking the last few years?
Using this philosophy the Tigers should have traded JV after the 2008 season or even 2007. He was at “peak value” and their core (Maggs, Guillen, Sheffield, etc) was aging. Instead they reloaded, traded prospects for vets and made a few good FA signings and contended for the next 5 yrs. Trading an ROY winner and potential ace for a prospect makes little sense because you’d simply be hoping to hit that lottery again in a couple of years. Prospects are just as injury prone, if not more, than vets younger than 30. Instead, a non-contending team trades vets who won’t be around in 3-5 yrs for prospects who will. Unless someone bowls them over with an offer they can’t refuse.
Using this philosophy the Tigers should have traded JV after the 2008 season or even 2007.
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You still continue to misunderstand the philosophy.
When you are contending, you trade prospects for a shot at a ring.
When you stink, you trade every for the next time you expect to be a contender.
But it makes no difference to me. If you’re happier having onto Fulmer & Boyd, that’s fine by me.
…or you stand your ground and those players perform and live up to their potential. It’s the teams going into the playoffs that need to make the sacrifice to obtain talent to win a championship. The Dodgers would likely have done that if they acquired Verlander and had they gave up Alex Verdugo in that deal.
The farm system is loaded with arms I wouldn’t doubt to see him moved this year or next. It seems they took a sp round 1 for close to 5 years before last year
Maybe next year if he comes back and pitches some quality ball. Otherwise, they’d be selling him at a low point. At this stage, they missed the boat and may as well see how he does. If anyone, they need to move Boyd if he starts out well. Decent workhorse but again….I think Avila waited too long on him too.
If other teams are not willing to pony up the demand there is no point in folding and settling for scraps.
The Dodgers come out looking like the biggest morons in Avila’s career. They could have had Verlander and would have destroyed the Astros in the WS but they didn’t want to give up a prospect OF for Verlander.
They should never live that down.
Fulmer had the makings of an ace, and those are rare in baseball. An ace pitcher is one of the most valuable players on any team. The Tigers still see the possibility of Fulmer turning back into a big contributor if he can make it back healthy from the surgeries. It’s easy to forget how excellent he was his first two seasons and how promising his career looked. It’s very rare for a guy to walk into the league and pitch that well right away. Injuries derailed him, but plenty of players have recovered from injuries and had successful come backs.
It is true that Fulmer had the makings of an Ace; however, it is also true that the Tiger Franchise was on a steep decline at all levels of the system. Trading Fulmer at that time would have been the right move. AA has done very little right since he became GM.
Interesting that MLBTR keeps reporting on this fake story. If it were actually true that would mean they completely wiffed on reporting it when it happened.
These are very old, very discredited rumors….Cubs and Astros state that they did not offer Baez or Bregman to the Tigers… The real truth is that the offers for Fulmer were very underwhelming. Fulmer was coming off a Rookie of the Year Season where he finished 10th in the Voting for the Cy Young Award. Year 2., Fulmer ,makes the All Star team.
A Top of the Line, young starter who had not yet reached his peak performance and who had, at that tim,e something like 4 years team control at a very low salary is worth gold to most MLB teams….
The offers to the Tigers were underwhelming or the Tigers would have moved Fulmer….
The Tigers should have received offers more in line with the Jose Quintana deal
(Eloy Jimenez, Dillon Cease and 2 other prospects)…
OR the Rays-Pirates Chris Archer Trade(
( Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz for Chris Archer)….
Fulmer is expected to be healthy after surgery and rebuild his value where he can be traded or locked down in the Tigers rotation.
Blaming the Tigers and their GM for not just giving away Fulmer/Offering him on a silver platter for a bunch of questionable questions marks is a non starter for me…
If GMs wanted a young, cost controlled #1 top of the rotation starter, then they would have to pay market value of above for Fulmer…
“The real truth is that the offers for Fulmer were very underwhelming. ”
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You don’t know that. You are trying to justify not trading him. And, like you said, Quintana & Archer went for a big return, so the assumption has to be that Fulmer would’ve landed you a big return.
Quintana & Archer were known quantities, Fulmer was not. He hadn’t put together a full dominating season let alone 2 strong back to back ones. The first half of his ROY season was very strong with a 2.11 ERA & 8.5 K/9. The 2nd half wasn’t with a 3.86 ERA & 6.6 K/9. You don’t trade Bergman or Baez for that 2nd half guy. In 2017 Fulmer looked more like that 2nd half guy, almost exactly. Then he was diagnosed with the nerve issue.
You don’t trade Bergman or Baez for that 2nd half guy.
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Again, you’re still guessing. I wouldn’t have made that trade either, since I wasn’t impressed with Fulmer’s K-rate.of 6.2. But just because I would not have made that trade, doesn’t mean no one else would’ve given up multiple high-end prospects.
And your argument as to why he wasn’t worth that much, undermines your argument about why the Tigers should’ve held onto him.
” Bregman helped the Astros to a World Series title (albeit one that many regard as tainted) in 2017″
What do you mean, “many regard”? It is unequivocally tainted.
It’s ashame that the 2017 world series was tainted. It was a great series. Not as good as Cubs and Indians but still great.
I don’t buy those rumored offers. I do think Avila missed the boat but hindsight being what it is, he couldn’t have foreseen all of the injuries. Fulmer will be back but I don’t think he will be a top of the rotation guy. I think if he can shake the injury bug he should have a future as a #4 kind of guy.
IMO, it isn’t an issue of not foreseeing the injuries. When a guy is at max value, he can only go downhill. You have everything to lose, and nothing to gain. Players can get injured (Fulmer), or have poor performances (Boyd), and have character issues (Vazquez).
For the entire trade season, Pirate fans were saying that, if they didn’t get some preposterous return from LAD, they didn’t have to trade Vazquez. You can never imagine what happened to Vazquez, but you can imagine things going wrong.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda. If only I had access to next week’s newspapers, I would know exactly what to do today. But I guess speculation of the past is all we can do on MLBTR when there is zero news.
More likely the Tigers were asking for Baez or Bregman not the other way around
Pretty sure it was the other way around theo and jed offering Javy Baez for Fulmer gets you immediately fired. You just do that. The tigers asked for Baez. Theo and Jed laughed and hung up