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AL Notes: Cora, Red Sox, Indians, Blue Jays

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Ex-Red Sox manager Alex Cora was just suspended for 2020 thanks to the role he played as the Astros’ bench coach during their 2017 sign-stealing scandal. Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and president Sam Kennedy made it sound earlier this week as if they wouldn’t bring Cora back at the end of his ban, but Kennedy may be open to it after all (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Kennedy told “Ordway, Merloni & Fauria” of WEEI that Cora’s “a great baseball manager.” As for whether the Red Sox would rehire him, Kennedy said: “We’ll talk about that down the road. We just removed Ron Roenicke’s interim tag and he’s going to lead our club going forward. I think a lot of Alex’s future depends on how he approaches this suspension period.” For at least this season, Roenicke – Cora’s former bench coach – will manage the team.

More on a couple other American League franchises…

  • The Indians have taken a step to compensate the majority of their employees for the foreseeable future during the COVID-19 pandemic. They’ve committed to paying their full-time staff their entire salaries through at least the end of June, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com report. Forty of the Indians’ senior staff members took pay cuts so the rest of the full-time staff could receive their typical salaries. The Indians have furloughed part-time workers and interns, on the other hand, but they could make the same amount of money or even more by way of unemployment benefits, according to Passan. While most of the league’s teams have committed to paying their non-player employees through May, the Indians are among the few that we know will extend beyond that point.
  • As a result of the season postponement, two fans recently filed a lawsuit against all 30 MLB teams and ticket companies StubHub, Ticketmaster, Live Nation, and Last Minute Transactions because they haven’t been able to get a refund for tickets purchased for 2020. The Blue Jays are not among the teams that have refused to give fans their money back, however, president Mark Shapiro told Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. “We have fielded every single call and whenever there has been a hardship, or a circumstance, that has necessitated a refund, we have refunded those tickets,” said Shapiro, who added, “We have not fought any of those and will continue to do that.” Shapiro’s under the impression that the league’s “very close” to announcing “a broader policy on refunds and exchanges.”

How The Reds Got Their 49-HR Man

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The Reds’ Eugenio Suarez has morphed into one of the majors’ most valuable third basemen over the past few years. Dating back to 2017, Suarez has accounted for 12.3 fWAR – the eighth-highest figure at his position and one that puts him in company with names like Kris Bryant and Josh Donaldson. At this point, it’s fair to call Suarez a cornerstone for the Reds, who signed him to a seven-year extension worth $66MM after his breakout effort in ’17. That now looks like a brilliant move from the team’s perspective, while acquiring him in the first place counts as one of former general manager Walt Jocketty’s shrewdest decisions atop their front office.

Let’s start with how Suarez got to this level after first joining the Tigers as a free agent out of Venezuela in 2008. Within five years, Suarez was regarded among the top five prospects in their system, though he didn’t wow anyone during his lone action in Detroit’s uniform. In his first season in the majors in 2014, Suarez played shortstop and batted .242/.316/.336 (86 wRC+) with 0.9 fWAR over 277 plate appearances and 85 games. The Tigers then shipped him and pitching prospect Jonathon Crawford to Cincinnati for right-hander Alfredo Simon heading into the 2015 season.

Simon was, of course, the headliner when the trade occurred. Then 33 years old, Simon was coming off an All-Star season in which he pitched to a 3.44 ERA/4.33 FIP over 196 1/3 innings. It was just the first season as a full-time starter for Simon, who functioned either as a reliever or a swingman in prior years. Unfortunately for Detroit, it would go down as his sole effective season from the rotation, though that wasn’t entirely surprising.

As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote when the trade happened: “Of course, Simon comes with plenty of questions as to whether he can repeat his effort. ERA estimators were not nearly as high on his work last year. And his ERA ballooned to 4.52 in the second half of the season.”

The Tigers didn’t make the playoffs in 2015, which proved to be Simon’s lone year with the franchise, and he was only able to muster a 5.05 ERA/4.77 FIP in 187 frames along the way. Then-president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who acquired Simon, didn’t make it through the season. Simon went back to the Reds in free agency thereafter, but he also struggled in his return to Cincy and hasn’t been heard from since at the major league level.

So, buying one year of control over Simon clearly didn’t go as hoped for the Tigers. It gets worse when you consider what they gave up. Sure, Crawford – the Tigers’ first-round pick in 2013 – didn’t amount to anything in the majors. In fact, he never even advanced beyond the High-A level, where he last pitched in 2017. Conversely, Suarez can be counted as one who got away for the Tigers.

It took Suarez until 2017 to truly find his groove in a Reds uniform, but as mentioned, he has established himself as a highly valuable member of the team and someone who could help key their resurgence sometime soon. Now a prolific slugger, Suarez has combined for 130 home runs in the past four seasons. He hit a jaw-dropping 49 last year to finish second in the majors, trailing only Mets Rookie of the Year winner Pete Alonso. Additionally, Suarez managed a .271/.358/.572 line (good for a 133 wRC+), totaled a personal-high 4.5 fWAR and missed a mere three of the Reds’ 162 games.

Suarez, still just 28, is on track to stay a Red through at least 2024. He’ll make reasonable salaries ranging from $9.25MM to $11MM through then, and the Reds will have a decision to make on a club option come 2025 ($15MM guarantee versus $2MM buyout). By FanGraphs’ estimate, Suarez’s production in Cincinnati has already been worth around $116MM. All the Tigers got for parting with that was a disappointing season from Simon, and they still haven’t found a clear answer at third since moving on from Suarez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Giancarlo Stanton, James Paxton

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Had the Major League Baseball season started on time, the Yankees would have had to come out of the gates without three of their most important players. Injured outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and left-hander James Paxton all would have missed some portion of the campaign, but if this season does get underway, they should be ready from the outset.

We already know about Judge, who’s progressing in his recovery from a rib stress fracture. His fellow slugger Stanton is also on the road back, manager Aaron Boone told Meredith Marakovits of the YES Network (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).

“Giancarlo’s doing well,” Boone said. “He’s still reporting in Tampa and going through his rehab. He’s doing really well. When we get ready to go, he should certainly be ready to be back and part of things.”

Stanton suffered a calf injury in the final week of February, rendering him doubtful for a normal Opening Day. It was especially unwelcome in light of Stanton’s abbreviated 2019, when biceps and knee issues limited him to a meager 18 regular-season games. That was Year 2 in a Yankees uniform for Stanton, whom they acquired from the Marlins on the heels of his 2017 NL MVP-winning season and who produced a .266/.343/.509 line with 38 home runs in 705 plate appearances during his only full season as a Yankee. He’s still signed for a guaranteed $244MM through 2027 (including a $10MM buyout for ’28). While the 30-year-old will have an opportunity to opt out of his contract after this season, it seems extremely unlikely he’ll take advantage of that chance even if he does enjoy a healthy and productive 2020.

There are better odds that Paxton has donned Yankees pinstripes for the last time. He’ll be a free agent next winter, after all, and no one knows whether a season will occur in the meantime. Paxton has consistently performed well for the Mariners and Yankees over the past few years, which would make him an appealing free agent, but injuries have been an all-too-common problem along the way. He underwent back surgery in early February and was set to be sidelined into May. But the 31-year-old’s recovery has gone “pretty smoothly,” according to Boone, who added he’s “really encouraged where James is.”

Paxton’s importance to New York’s staff only increased when righty Luis Severino underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery in February. That procedure left Paxton as arguably the Yankees’ top complement to Gerrit Cole, with Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery also in the mix. Paxton showed well in his first season as a Yankee, averaging better than 95 mph on his fastball and turning in 150 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA/3.86 FIP ball with 11.11 K/9 and 3.29 BB/9.

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Starting Pitchers

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In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, third basemen, center fielders, corner outfielders, and lefty and righty relievers who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Now, we’ll cover the starting pitchers (players’ ages for the 2021 campaign are listed in parentheses).

Top of the Class

  • Trevor Bauer (30): An front-of-the-rotation performer in 2018, Bauer managed only a 4.48 ERA in his 213 frames last year while allowing home runs at about three times the rate he did in the season prior. If you value Bauer somewhere in between, he’s still a high-quality performer. The fact that he’s steadfastly claiming interest only in one-year agreements should enhance his appeal to some organizations.
  • Mike Minor (33): The past health issues haven’t been a concern of late for the southpaw, who last year topped two hundred frames and posted a 3.59 ERA. His fielding-independent pitching numbers weren’t quite as impressive, but at worst Minor figures to be a quality mid-rotation target.
  • Jake Odorizzi (31): He somewhat surprisingly took the qualifying offer after a very strong 2019 showing, but that could still work to Odorizzi’s benefit. He won’t be dragged down by draft compensation and could be the top-available arm. Odorizzi put up a 3.51 ERA last year, though he was only asked to work 159 frames over thirty starts.
  • Jose Quintana (32): The results weren’t there in 2019, as Quintana limped to a 4.68 ERA. But he did manage a 3.80 FIP, so if you believe in his ability to keep the ball in the yard even while others around the game can’t, then perhaps there’s still a good bit left in the tank. Quintana has a long track record of success, so the market could buy into a rebound if he’s able to show it.
  • Robbie Ray (29): The upside here is tremendous with Ray’s propensity for generating whiffs. But he was also more prone to dole out free passes and surrender long balls than the other members of this group. Ray has been pretty durable and has a strong history of strikeouts. Given his age, he probably has the greatest earning upside of any starter in an underwhelming overall market.
  • Marcus Stroman (30): While his strikeout numbers don’t jump off the page, Stroman generates a lot of grounders and has consistently turned in palatable home run tallies. He seems like a good bet for a strong, four-year deal, even if he’s unlikely to take down a monster contract.
  • Masahiro Tanaka (32): Tanaka’s swinging-strike rate dropped to 10.7% in 2019 after a two-season surge. But he has had success at that level previously and continues to avoid walks and generate strong groundball numbers. It’s tough to imagine Tanaka again producing the kind of sparkling numbers he did early in his tenure with the Yankees, but he could be a major factor on the market.

Upside Aplenty

  • James Paxton (32): The big lefty is healing while everyone else waits for baseball to get started. He’s arguably the most talented pitcher on this year’s market and could still command a big payday if he hits the ground running when he returns.
  • Garrett Richards (33): It’s much the same story for Richards as for Paxton. He made it back to the majors briefly in 2019 so should be a full go for the 2020 season. It has been a long time since he has managed a complete season, but there’s a tremendous established ceiling.
  • Kevin Gausman (30): Could there still be some breakout potential here? Gausman didn’t have a successful 2019 by most measures, but he did jump up to a 14.8% swinging-strike rate and 10.0 K/9 — both career-high levels. He posted an ugly 5.72 ERA, but ERA estimators were rather more optimistic as to the value of his contributions (3.98 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 4.10 SIERA).
  • Michael Wacha (29): We’ve already seen Wacha turn in quality MLB campaigns from a rotation and he’s still fairly young, so he could be an interesting name to watch if he’s able to author a bounceback campaign.
  • Taijuan Walker (28): It’s not promising that the Diamondbacks elected to cut bait after watching Walker return from Tommy John surgery. But he has had plenty of time to rest and is reputedly motivated in his return to the Mariners.
  • Alex Wood (30): He has throw 839 innings of 3.40 ERA ball in the majors with metrics to match (3.49 FIP/3.53 xFIP/3.70 SIERA), so there’s no denying Wood’s track record.

Established Veterans

  • Brett Anderson (33): When he takes the mound in 2020, it’ll be a dozen straight seasons of some MLB action. Despite the many injuries and ups and downs, Anderson is still a useful, groundball-oriented starter.
  • Chase Anderson (33): If he’s good enough to be interesting, the Blue Jays will pick up their $9.5MM club option ($500K buyout).
  • Chris Archer (32): Likewise, Archer will probably either be a reclamation project or an easy choice to retain on a $11MM club option ($250K buyout).
  • Jake Arrieta (35): We’re now three full seasons into obvious decline for Arrieta, but he’s still a factor regardless and could yet have a late-career renaissance of sorts.
  • Homer Bailey (35): His deal with the Reds didn’t work out at all, but Bailey settled in last year as a sturdy presence.
  • Tyler Chatwood (31): He has found more success of late in the bullpen than as a starter, with his velo trending up in shorter stints, but who knows what the future holds?
  • Anthony DeSclafani (31): He quietly turned in a strong rebound campaign in 2019, spinning 166 2/3 innings of 3.89 ERA pitching with 9.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.
  • Mike Fiers (36): Though ERA estimators think it’s a mirage, Fiers carries a 3.73 ERA in 356 2/3 frames over the past two seasons.
  • Gio Gonzalez (35): Gio had a bit of a quiet resurgence last year. If he can carry that forward, the White Sox can keep him for $7MM (or pay a $500K buyout).
  • Cole Hamels (37): Hamels is taking things one year at a time. We’ll see how he bounces back from an injury that was going to take away a big chunk of the 2020 season before it was paused.
  • J.A. Happ (38): We may end up debating Hamels and Happ until one or both finally decide to hang ’em up.
  • Rich Hill (41): Another venerable southpaw, Hill is dead set on returning to glory with the Twins and remains a highly talented hurler when he’s able to take the bump.
  • Merrill Kelly (32): If he’s not good enough for the D-Backs to pick up with a $4.25MM club option ($500K buyout), we likely won’t be featuring him much in free agency.
  • Corey Kluber (35): The Rangers are hoping he’s a slam dunk on a $17.5MM club option; if not, we’ll be talking about a bounceback candidate.
  • Mike Leake (33): He’ll take a $5MM buyout on his way out the door. When last he hit the open market, Leake’s appeal was in his youth. Now, he has a lot to show in his platform season.
  • Jon Lester (37): Could this be the final run or will Lester keep going?
  • Charlie Morton (37): As with Kluber … if he’s what his team expects, his option (in this case, a floating-value vesting/club option) will be exercised.
  • Jimmy Nelson (32): The Dodgers hold a cheap club option, but if he throws enough innings it’ll convert to a mutual option that could allow Nelson to revisit the market.
  • Ivan Nova (34): Steady innings, we all need ’em.
  • Martin Perez (30): The Red Sox went after the southpaw and made sure they’d keep the upside ($6.25MM club option) if he works out.
  • Rick Porcello (32): If he can turn things back around with the Mets, Porcello could be a candidate for a multi-year deal.
  • Tyson Ross (34): We’re well past wondering whether Ross can regain his earlier-career form, but perhaps he could still settle in as a useful veteran swingman.
  • Jeff Samardzija (36): Samardzija rather quietly turned in 181 1/3 innings of 3.52 ERA ball last year for the Giants. The peripherals didn’t exactly suggest he’s in the middle of a Verlander-like late-career run, but Shark could again be a factor.
  • Anibal Sanchez (37): Speaking of resurgent hurler, Sanchez will either get a $2MM buyout or pitch again in D.C. on a $12MM club option.
  • Drew Smyly (32): Still capable of getting strikeouts and somehow rather youthful, Smyly may yet have another run in his left arm.
  • Jordan Zimmermann (35): Unfortunately, there’s really no sugar-coating Zimmermann’s miserable tenure in Detroit.

Potential 2020-21 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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Let’s be honest right up front: we don’t know what the qualifying offer system will look like for the 2020-21 offseason. It’s in the CBA, sure, but economic realities could require some rather extensive renegotiation — or, due to vast changes in key underlying information points, completely change what we think we know about the market for baseball players. But we’re not going to offer any guesses on those aspects of the future. As we learn more about how drastically the 2020 season will ultimately be curtailed, and what the means for 2021 and beyond, we’ll adjust as best we can.

(We also don’t yet know the value of the QO. It’s set by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the game.)

Instead, in this post, we’re going to look forward at the 2020-21 offseason with something of a presumption of relative normalcy. We aren’t aiming for any precision — just trying to create a useful starting point that we can revisit as the situation develops, both economically and on the field (if indeed MLB makes it back). Here’s a list of the pending free agents who may be candidates to receive a qualifying offer.

Slam Dunks

  • Mookie Betts (OF, Dodgers): One of the game’s very best players, Betts is sure to receive a QO.
  • J.T. Realmuto (C, Phillies): Barring a total collapse, Realmuto will receive and reject a qualifying offer.
  • Marcus Semien (SS, Athletics): After an MVP-level showing in 2019, the expectation is that Semien will be one of the top players on the market this fall. Even if he steps back a fair bit at the plate, it’s tough to imagine he won’t be worth a qualifying offer.
  • George Springer (OF, Astros): Springer is an immensely productive offensive performer and can play anywhere in the outfield.

Other Top Candidates

  • Trevor Bauer (SP, Reds): This could go either way, but the Reds gave up big value last summer on the assumption that Bauer would easily be worthy of a QO. It’ll be fun to see how it unfolds given Bauer’s oft-state determination to play out his career on one-year deals.
  • Michael Brantley (OF/DH, Astros): He has been healthy and quite productive for the past two seasons.
  • Ken Giles (RP, Blue Jays): If he can turn in a second-straight star performance in Toronto, Giles would be a candidate for a major, long-term free agent contract.
  • Didi Gregorius (SS, Phillies): If he bounces back as the Phillies hope, it’ll be an easy to call. If there’s no 2020 season, he’ll be allowed to return to free agency without encumbrance.
  • Liam Hendriks (RP, Athletics): It’d be a big bet for a guy with this back story, but Hendriks was elite in 2019 and could warrant a QO if he repeats.
  • DJ LeMahieu (2B, Yankees): Based on his surprising 2019 MVP-caliber season, DJLM would get a QO if the Yanks were forced to decide right now. But they have the luxury of watching the 2020 season, when he’ll try to prove he can maintain that new level of output.
  • Mike Minor (SP, Rangers): Two strong seasons in Texas make Minor an easy bet on a one-year arrangement, but he’ll be watched closely in 2020.
  • James Paxton (SP, Yankees): The delay to the season has given Paxton time to overcome his latest injury. He has such a high established ceiling that he won’t have to show all that much to be worthy of a QO … so long as he ends 2020 in good health.
  • Jose Quintana (SP, Cubs): The trend isn’t promising, but a bounceback 2020 could put Q back on track for a QO.
  • Robbie Ray (SP, Diamondbacks): It’s possible that Ray will end up being the top starter on the market. Odds are he’ll turn down a QO on his way out the door in Arizona.
  • Garrett Richards (SP, Padres): With ace-like stuff, a resurgent Richards could easily warrant a qualifying offer … though there’s also an obvious downside scenario here.
  • Andrelton Simmons (SS, Angels): Some might disagree with me, but I expect Simmons to get a QO from the Los Angeles organization even if he’s a slightly below-average hitter in 2020. The glove is exceptional.
  • Marcus Stroman (SP, Mets): Barring injury or a total downturn, there’s little question the productive starter is going to warrant a QO.
  • Masahiro Tanaka (SP, Yankees): You hate to rule out a guy with this talent level, even if he hasn’t shown that level of capability of late.
  • Kirby Yates (RP, Padres): We can debate how much money and how long a commitment you ought to make to an aging relief pitcher, but Yates has been one of the game’s very best and is easily worthy of a qualifying offer-level salary on a single-season pact.

Options/Opt-Outs

  • Nick Castellanos (OF, Reds): If he plays well enough to opt out after year one, a qualifying offer would be likely.
  • J.D. Martinez (OF/DH, Red Sox): Martinez can opt out of the last two years of his deal. Should he do so, he’d be sure to decline a qualifying offer, so the Boston org would likely issue it.
  • Charlie Morton (SP, Rays): It was rather surprising when Morton didn’t get a QO on his way out the door in Houston. Anything close to his 2019 output would again make him a strong candidate, even at relatively advanced age. But if he’s that good and healthy again, he’ll trigger a $15MM vesting option. (Even if it doesn’t go into effect automatically, the Rays will be able to pick it up as a club option at that price — or a lower number, depending upon time spent on the injured list).
  • Giancarlo Stanton (OF, Yankees): On the off chance he has such an immense season that he opts out of the $200+ million left on his deal … well, no doubt the Yanks would dangle a qualifying offer.

Other Possibilities

If teams had to make the call right now, I don’t think any of these players would get real consideration for a qualifying offer. But they’re the top possibilities beyond those considered in more detail above …

  • Dellin Betances (RP, Mets): It doesn’t take much imagination to understand how a QO could happen here.
  • Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, Red Sox): It’s fairly unlikely, but Bradley has enough of a track record in the field that he could warrant a QO if he can return to the offensive output he provided 4-5 years ago.
  • Sean Doolittle (RP, Nationals): It’ll take a real bounce back to his prior effectiveness for the excellent lefty to warrant a qualifying offer.
  • Kevin Gausman (SP, Giants): While he’s nowhere near a QO candidate after a few tough seasons, Gausman is only 29 and has big-time pedigree.
  • Yuli Gurriel (1B, Astros): The odds of a near-40 first baseman getting a qualifying offer aren’t high, but Gurriel did hit quite well last year.
  • Cole Hamels (SP, Braves): The Atlanta org promised him $18MM this past winter, so a QO can’t be ruled out.
  • Keone Kela (RP, Pirates): Could he elevate his game as the Bucs’ closer?
  • Tommy La Stella (INF, Angels): Who’s to say he can’t keep the 2019 productivity rolling? It’s likelier he’ll end up reaching the market without a qualifying offer, but it’s at least possible to imagine.
  • Joc Pederson (OF, Dodgers): Unlikely for a platoon bat, but Pederson has been a consistent power source.
  • Blake Treinen (RP, Dodgers): See Betances.
  • Jonathan Villar (INF/OF, Marlins): He’s young enough that a QO can’t be ruled out if he turns in another ~4 WAR season.
  • Brandon Workman (RP, Red Sox): If he repeats 2019, it’s possible … but the prior track record suggests cause for skepticism.
  • Alex Wood (SP, Dodgers): The lefty was really good for quite some time before running into injury troubles last year.

Ineligible Due To Prior QO

How Did The A’s End Up With Baseball’s Most Productive Reliever?

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Okay, I’m sure some will take umbrage with the title here. But I chose my words pretty carefully. Liam Hendriks probably wasn’t baseball’s most effective reliever in 2019. He almost assuredly isn’t its best from a true-talent perspective. And the Aussie certainly isn’t its most valuable when it comes to control rights and contracts. (He’ll be a free agent at the end of the 2020 season.)

But … Hendriks did lead Major League Baseball’s bullpen denizens with a whopping 3.8 fWAR last year … the loftiest single-season tally since Eric Gagne’s magical 2003 effort. (It’s 3.9 if you include his two “opener” outings.) Hendriks was also worth 3.5 rWAR, so it wasn’t just a quirk of the FIP-based Fangraphs tabulations. Prefer RA9 WAR? He was even more dominant.

But, you may protest, wins above replacement isn’t the best measure of a reliever. That’s no doubt true. The precise tabulations don’t really matter for our purposes here. Hendriks was in part able to out-WAR his fellow relievers because he threw so many innings — 85 in 75 appearances, one of the heaviest workloads in the game — but that just makes things more impressive. He ranked among the leaders in most major measures of effectiveness as well … including fielding-independent pitching measures FIP (2nd), xFIP (18th), and SIERA (5th).

This showing was exceedingly impressive, no matter the details. It was also … decidedly not consistent with Hendriks’s prior efforts on an MLB mound. Entering the 2019 season, his big league stat sheet reflected 406 innings of 4.72 ERA pitching.

How on earth did we get here?

We can mostly ignore the earliest stage of his career, when Hendriks — once a prospect of some note with the Twins — failed to make it as a starter. The Minnesota organization cut bait after 156 innings of 6.06 ERA pitching. Hendriks ultimately landed with the Blue Jays after a round of offseason waiver-wire musical chairs in the 2013-14 offseason. He first went from the Twins to the Cubs after the Minnesota org signed Phil Hughes. The Orioles prevented the Cubs from slipping Hendriks through waivers but cut him loose when they inked Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Toronto organization only gave Hendriks a few outings during the ensuing 2014 season before sending him to the Royals in a deal for Danny Valencia. Hendriks did have good Triple-A numbers that year. When the Royals needed 40-man space in the ensuing offseason, the Jays stepped back in and grabbed Hendriks back in a DFA limbo swap.

Finally, the stage was set for success. Hendriks moved into the bullpen in Toronto … and immediately exhibited a huge uptick in velocity. He was sitting over 95 mph in a relief capacity and having much more success at generating swings and misses. In 2015, Hendriks turned in 64 2/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball with 9.9 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. He didn’t allow many home runs (0.4 per nine) and even generated a strong 46.3% groundball rate (the only time he has ticked up in that department).

The Blue Jays decided to cash in at this point, shipping Hendriks to Oakland in exchange for steady veteran swingman Jesse Chavez. He continued the strong work for the most part. While his ERA trickled north, Hendriks still carried good peripherals and gave the A’s a lot of useful innings in his first two campaigns. Taking his 2015-17 efforts as a whole, Hendriks was a notable contributor: he threw between 64 and 64 2/3 frames in each season while compiling a 3.63 cumulative ERA and a total of 3.9 fWAR (precisely the tally he managed in the 2019 season alone).

Before Hendriks could break out, he had to go through the roughest patch since his time as a starter. He struggled with a groin injury and threw eleven terrible innings before being dumped to make way for Edwin Jackson. Hendriks sailed through waivers and could’ve elected free agency, but decided to stay with the A’s since doing otherwise would’ve meant giving up the remainder of his $1.9MM arbitration salary.

Expectations were low when the A’s unceremoniously brought Hendriks back onto the MLB roster for the stretch run with the September active roster expansion. But he had transformed himself while away and the results were immediately apparent — at both Triple-A (43:4 K/BB in 25 1/3 innings) and the big leagues (two earned runs, 10:3 K/BB in 13 innings). What changed? As Rian Watt of Fangraphs wrote recently, A’s pitching coach Scott Emerson credits Hendriks for having “transformed his body” and with it his “mindset” and “approach” during his demotion. Oh, and Hendriks added velocity — it was apparent late in 2018 and continued in 2019 — and figured out a better means of locating his curve to complement the heat.

That good old-fashioned hard work has served Hendriks well in the past; he credited strength training and clean living for his original, pre-2015 breakout. But this time he moved into much more exclusive territory, delivering a 96.8 mph average fastball and generating a big 17.0% swinging-strike. Hendriks ended up fifth among all relievers with 32.0% K%-BB%.

Remarkably, even as the A’s watched Blake Treinen fall from his perch (a 3.6 fWAR 2018 season), they were able to turn over the ninth inning to a similarly dominant hurler. Hendriks ended up locking up 25 saves for Oakland last year. He’s earning a reasonable $5.3MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility — which will actually be his tenth consecutive season of MLB action, owing to all the ups and downs over the years.

As for the future, we’ll have to see whether Hendriks can keep this going. But he only turned 31 in February, so he could have many good seasons ahead.

Quick Hits: Cora, Mize, Minors, Cubs, Nats

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Former Red Sox skipper Alex Cora is suspended for all of the 2020 season as a result of the role he played as the Astros’ bench coach in their 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but it may not be long before he’s in a prominent position again. If the World Baseball Classic takes place in 2021, Cora may be in line to manage or perhaps serve as the GM of the Puerto Rican team. On potentially hiring Cora, president of the Puerto Rican Baseball Federation Jose Quiles told Primera Hora (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com): “Of course we would consider it. We already know the work he does. He would be considered as much for general manager as he would be for manager.” Cora was the GM of the 2017 Puerto Rican club that lost just one game – the championship round against the United States.

Here’s more from around the game…

  • High-end Tigers pitching prospect Casey Mize is holding out hope that he’ll make his major league debut in 2020, as Chris McCosky of the Detroit News writes. “It is very frustrating,” Mize told McCosky the coronavirus-forced shutdown. “This is the year I’d hoped to spend a lot of quality time in the big leagues and make my debut. And if there is a season, that is still my goal. That is still something I want to accomplish.” The 22-year-old Mize is keeping in shape by throwing five days a week, including a 40-pitch bullpen session every Wednesday. The No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, Mize further proved himself as one of the best prospects in baseball last year when he threw 78 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball during his Double-A debut.
  • Contraction of minor league teams seems to be on the way, but the Cubs won’t be among the franchises affected, Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago details. They’re not in position to lose any of their affiliates, which Cubs senior director for player development Matt Dorey told Wittenmyer is “not surprising at all.” The Cubs have been impressed with the work that all of their lower level teams have put in, Dorey explained to Wittenmyer, and they believe those partnerships will continue. “It’s amazing how much investment in resources they’ve made to put our players in the best position to develop,” Dorey said.
  • Changes to the minor league setup may allow the St. Paul Saints of the independent American Association to become an affiliated team, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America reported earlier this week. But the Saints are content in their current position. They’ve “had very little to do with this other than our name being mentioned,’’ executive vice president and general manager Derek Sharrer told Jim Paulsen of the Star Tribune. Sharrer added: “We’re a member of an independent league, and we’re very happy with it. Our heritage, our DNA, is tied into being independent. We’ve had success both on and off the field. We provide a brand of entertainment with a certain renegade independent feel to it, but we’re certainly flattered to be in the discussion.”
  • The Nationals are the latest team that has committed to paying their non-player employees through the end of May, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. They join most of the league’s other clubs in that regard.

Replacing J.T. Realmuto

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The Phillies have discussed an extension with soon-to-be free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, but the two sides paused those talks last month as a result of the coronavirus. The team still seems to have the inside track on locking up Realmuto, for whom it paid a pretty penny in a February 2019 trade with the National League East rival Marlins, but what if a worst-case scenario occurs? What if the Phillies are unsuccessful in trying to prevent the two-time All-Star from exiting via the open market next offseason?

[RELATED: Extension Candidate – J.T. Realmuto]

J.T. Realmuto

The Phillies wouldn’t be well-equipped to go on without Realmuto in the near term. They only have two other catchers – Andrew Knapp and Deivy Grullon – on their 40-man roster right now. Knapp has been a replacement-level player across 579 plate appearances since he debuted in 2017. Grullon’s still just a 24-year-old who did produce nice numbers in the high minors from 2018-19, but he has barely played in the majors and isn’t regarded as a high-end prospect.

The Phillies have at least a couple of other promising young catchers in Rafael Marchan (MLB.com’s seventh-ranked prospect for the organization) and Rodolfo Duran (No. 19), but it seems unrealistic to expect either of them or Grullon to take Realmuto’s place from the get-go in the event that he departs next winter.

As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd laid out earlier this month, there may be other regulars at the position who hit the market soon. Robinson Chirinos, James McCann, Yadier Molina (though he and the Cardinals are motivated to stick together) and former Phillie Wilson Ramos could become free agents. So could Jason Castro, Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki, among others. There are some options there who at least might make for decent stopgaps, and it’s anyone’s guess who might end up on the trade market, but with no known stars set to become available behind the plate, it should be all the more imperative for the Phillies to lock up their current catcher.

Realmuto, who turned 29 last month, continued to make a case for a sizable contract during his first year in Philadelphia. He paced all catchers in fWAR (5.7) for the second year in a row and slashed .275/.328/.493 with 25 home runs in 593 plate appearances and 145 games. Behind the plate, he gunned down a league-leading 47 percent of would-be base stealers (MLB average was 26 percent) and finished fourth in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.

Between Miami and Philly, Realmuto has shown he’s a well-rounded, star-caliber backstop. As a result, there’s a chance he’ll follow backstops like Joe Mauer and Buster Posey en route to a $100MM-plus guarantee. No matter how much he earns, though, it’s clear the Phillies would have a difficult time replacing Realmuto.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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